Bayesian Likelihood Analysis Research Articles

The Physical Drivers and Observational Tracers of CO-to-H2 Conversion Factor Variations in Nearby Barred Galaxy Centers

The CO-to-H2 conversion factor (α CO) is central to measuring the amount and properties of molecular gas. It is known to vary with environmental conditions, and previous studies have revealed lower α CO in the centers of some barred galaxies on kiloparsec scales. To unveil the physical drivers of such variations, we obtained Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array bands (3), (6), and (7) observations toward the inner ∼2 kpc of NGC 3627 and NGC 4321 tracing 12CO, 13CO, and C18O lines on ∼100 pc scales. Our multiline modeling and Bayesian likelihood analysis of these data sets reveal variations of molecular gas density, temperature, optical depth, and velocity dispersion, which are among the key drivers of α CO. The central 300 pc nuclei in both galaxies show strong enhancement of temperature T k ≳ 100 K and density cm−3. Assuming a CO-to-H2 abundance of 3 × 10−4, we derive 4–15 times lower α CO than the Galactic value across our maps, which agrees well with previous kiloparsec-scale measurements. Combining the results with our previous work on NGC 3351, we find a strong correlation of α CO with low-J 12CO optical depths (τ CO), as well as an anticorrelation with T k. The τ CO correlation explains most of the α CO variation in the three galaxy centers, whereas changes in T k influence α CO to second order. Overall, the observed line width and 12CO/13CO 2–1 line ratio correlate with τ CO variation in these centers, and thus they are useful observational indicators for α CO variation. We also test current simulation-based α CO prescriptions and find a systematic overprediction, which likely originates from the mismatch of gas conditions between our data and the simulations.

E/B mode decomposition of HSC-Y1 cosmic shear using COSEBIs: Cosmological constraints and comparison with other two-point statistics

Abstract We perform a cosmic shear analysis of Hyper Suprime-Cam Subaru Strategic Program first-year data (HSC-Y1) using complete orthogonal sets of E/B-integrals (COSEBIs) to derive cosmological constraints. We compute E/B-mode COSEBIs from cosmic shear two-point correlation functions measured on an angular range of 4′ < θ < 180′. We perform a standard Bayesian likelihood analysis for cosmological inference from the measured E-mode COSEBIs, including contributions from intrinsic alignments of galaxies as well as systematic effects from point spread function model errors, shear calibration uncertainties, and source redshift distribution errors. We adopt a covariance matrix derived from realistic mock catalogs constructed from full-sky gravitational lensing simulations that fully take account of the survey geometry and measurement noise. For a flat Λ cold dark matter model, we find $S\,_8 \equiv \sigma _8\sqrt{\Omega _{\rm m}/0.3}=0.809_{-0.026}^{+0.036}$. We carefully check the robustness of the cosmological results against astrophysical modeling uncertainties and systematic uncertainties in measurements, and find that none of them has a significant impact on the cosmological constraints. We also find that the measured B-mode COSEBIs are consistent with zero. We examine, using mock HSC-Y1 data, the consistency of our S8 constraints with those derived from the other cosmic shear two-point statistics, the power spectrum analysis by Hikage et al. (2019, PASJ, 71, 43) and the two-point correlation function analysis by Hamana et al. (2020, PASJ, 72, 16), which adopt the same HSC-Y1 shape catalog, and find that all the S8 constraints are consistent with each other, although the expected correlations between derived S8 constraints are weak.

The wasp genus Sphex in Sub-Saharan Africa (Hymenoptera: Sphecidae)

The Afrotropical species of the sphecid genus Sphex are revised. Forty-six taxa are recognized, of which fifteen are newly described: Sphex abbotti nivarius subsp. nov., S. comorensis sp. nov., S. hades sp. nov., S. nefrens sp. nov., S. occidentalis sp. nov., S. pseudopraedator sp. nov., S. pseudosatanas sp. nov., S. pulawskii sp. nov., S. rufoclypeatus sp. nov., S. satanas memnon subsp. nov., S. schmideggeri sp. nov., S. schoutedeni malawicus subsp. nov., S. socotrensis sp. nov., S. stadelmanni rufus subsp. nov. and S. victoria sp. nov. A new subgenus, Menkeella subgen. nov., is proposed for S. paulinierii Guérin Méneville, 1843.
 Four former synonyms are resurrected: Sphex pruinosus var. haemorrhoidalis Magretti, 1898, for which the replacement name of S. feijeni nom. nov. is proposed, S. camerunicus Strand, 1916, S. cinerascens Dahlbom, 1843 and S. abbotti W. Fox, 1891.
 Nine of the previously valid names are shown to be junior synonyms: Sphex haemorrhoidalis basuto (Arnold, 1947) and S. haemorrhoidalis kobrowi (Arnold, 1928) = S. umtalicus Strand, 1916; S. incomptus anonymus Leclercq, 1955 = S. nigrohirtus Kohl, 1895; S. neavei (Arnold, 1928) = S. abbotti W. Fox, 1891; S. observabilis (R. Turner, 1918) = S. ahasverus Kohl, 1890; S. rufiscutis (R. Turner, 1918) and S. mochii Giordani Soika, 1942 = S. jansei Cameron, 1910; S. rufiscutis laevigatus Arnold, 1951 = S. gaullei Berland, 1927; and S. stadelmanni integer (Arnold, 1928) = S. stadelmanni Kohl, 1895. Three previously synonymized species are transferred as new synonyms to different species: Sphex conradti Berland, 1927 = S. camerunicus Strand, 1916; S. kilimandjaroensis Cameron, 1908 = S. abbotti W. Fox, 1891; and S. nigripes var. pachyderma Strand, 1916 = S. umtalicus Strand, 1916. For three species, the actual type localities are on different continents than their labels indicate: Sphex ahasverus Kohl, 1890, S. castaneipes Dahlbom, 1843 and S. optimus F. Smith, 1856, with the first occuring in Africa instead of Australia and the other two presumably occuring in South America instead of Africa.
 The occurrence of the argentatus group in Sub-Saharan Africa is confirmed, and seven additional species groups are established, with all but one of them based on apomorphic morphological traits. A hypothesis on the phylogenetic relationships among the subgenera and species groups of Sphex is presented, and an identification key for both sexes as well as a placoid-based identification table for males are presented. Using Bayesian inference and maximum likelihood analysis on mitochondrial and nuclear sequence data generated from thirty-one of the recognized taxa, the monophyly of the proposed species groups is corroborated.

Molecular Gas Properties and CO-to-H2 Conversion Factors in the Central Kiloparsec of NGC 3351

Abstract The CO-to-H2 conversion factor (α CO) is critical to studying molecular gas and star formation in galaxies. The value of α CO has been found to vary within and between galaxies, but the specific environmental conditions that cause these variations are not fully understood. Previous observations on ~kiloparsec scales revealed low values of α CO in the centers of some barred spiral galaxies, including NGC 3351. We present new Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array Band 3, 6, and 7 observations of 12CO, 13CO, and C18O lines on 100 pc scales in the inner ∼2 kpc of NGC 3351. Using multiline radiative transfer modeling and a Bayesian likelihood analysis, we infer the H2 density, kinetic temperature, CO column density per line width, and CO isotopologue abundances on a pixel-by-pixel basis. Our modeling implies the existence of a dominant gas component with a density of 2–3 × 103 cm−3 in the central ∼1 kpc and a high temperature of 30–60 K near the nucleus and near the contact points that connect to the bar-driven inflows. Assuming a CO/H2 abundance of 3 × 10−4, our analysis yields α CO ∼ 0.5–2.0 M ⊙ (K km s−1 pc2)−1 with a decreasing trend with galactocentric radius in the central ∼1 kpc. The inflows show a substantially lower α CO ≲ 0.1 M ⊙ (K km s−1 pc2)−1, likely due to lower optical depths caused by turbulence or shear in the inflows. Over the whole region, this gives an intensity-weighted α CO of ∼1.5 M ⊙ (K km s−1 pc2)−1, which is similar to previous dust-modeling-based results at kiloparsec scales. This suggests that low α CO on kiloparsec scales in the centers of some barred galaxies may be due to the contribution of low-optical-depth CO emission in bar-driven inflows.

A New Species of Paradiplozoon (Monogenea: Diplozoidae), A Gill Parasite of the Schizothorax Fish (Cyprinidae: Schizothoracinae) from the Yarkand River, Xinjiang, China.

Monogeneans of the genus Paradiplozoon were found on the gills of specimens of five species of schizothoracid caught using fyke nets in the upper stream of the Yarkand River, Xinjiang, China in May-August 2019. The preserved parasite were stained with boric acid magenta and hematoxylin, respectively. Morphological observations, line drawings, photomicrographs and measurements were made in Nikon ECLIPSE E200 imaging optical microscope and digitally edited. The molecular analysis included the study of the sequence of the second internal transcribed spacer (ITS 2) of the ribosomal DNA region, calculation and analysis of genetic distance, with phylogenetic reconstructions based on the Bayesian inference and Maximum Likelihood analysis. The natural infection rate of host fish was 10-88%. Morphological analysis indicated that the average length of the new species was 2.125mm while the width was 0.69mm. The anterior part was 1.387mm in length and the average length of the posterior part was 0.545mm. The vitellaria was well-developed and located in the front of the body. A single ovary (oval shaped) was located at the back end of the reproductive binding area. A testis (irregular mass) was located behind or parallelled to the ovary. The new species can be distinguished from all the recorded Paradiplozoon species in terms of morphological characteristics such as haptor, clamp and central hook morphology, intestine shape and body size. In addition, the second internal transcribed spacer (ITS 2) of the ribosomal DNA region of the diplozoid was compared with that of known diplozoids previously published. It indicated that there were significant differences between the new species and the published diplozoids. Both morphological and molecular analysis support that the diplozoid is a new species. Based on the sampling location, the new species was named Paradiplozoon yarkandense n. sp.

Confronting lattice parton distributions with global QCD analysis

We present the first Monte Carlo based global QCD analysis of spin-averaged and spin-dependent parton distribution functions (PDFs) that includes nucleon isovector matrix elements in coordinate space from lattice QCD. We investigate the degree of universality of the extracted PDFs when the lattice and experimental data are treated under the same conditions within the Bayesian likelihood analysis. For the unpolarized sector, we find rather weak constraints from the current lattice data on the phenomenological PDFs, and difficulties in describing the lattice matrix elements at large spatial distances. In contrast, for the polarized PDFs we find good agreement between experiment and lattice data, with the latter providing significant constraints on the spin-dependent isovector quark and antiquark distributions.

Cosmological constraints from cosmic shear two-point correlation functions with HSC survey first-year data

Abstract We present measurements of cosmic shear two-point correlation functions (TPCFs) from Hyper Suprime-Cam Subaru Strategic Program (HSC) first-year data, and derive cosmological constraints based on a blind analysis. The HSC first-year shape catalog is divided into four tomographic redshift bins ranging from $z=0.3$ to 1.5 with equal widths of $\Delta z =0.3$. The unweighted galaxy number densities in each tomographic bin are 5.9, 5.9, 4.3, and $2.4\:$arcmin$^{-2}$ from the lowest to highest redshifts, respectively. We adopt the standard TPCF estimators, $\xi _\pm$, for our cosmological analysis, given that we find no evidence of significant B-mode shear. The TPCFs are detected at high significance for all 10 combinations of auto- and cross-tomographic bins over a wide angular range, yielding a total signal-to-noise ratio of 19 in the angular ranges adopted in the cosmological analysis, $7^{\prime }<\theta <56^{\prime }$ for $\xi _+$ and $28^{\prime }<\theta <178^{\prime }$ for $\xi _-$. We perform the standard Bayesian likelihood analysis for cosmological inference from the measured cosmic shear TPCFs, including contributions from intrinsic alignment of galaxies as well as systematic effects from PSF model errors, shear calibration uncertainty, and source redshift distribution errors. We adopt a covariance matrix derived from realistic mock catalogs constructed from full-sky gravitational lensing simulations that fully account for survey geometry and measurement noise. For a flat $\Lambda$ cold dark matter model, we find $S\,_8 \equiv \sigma _8\sqrt{\Omega _{\rm m}/0.3}=0.804_{-0.029}^{+0.032}$, and $\Omega _{\rm m}=0.346_{-0.100}^{+0.052}$. We carefully check the robustness of the cosmological results against astrophysical modeling uncertainties and systematic uncertainties in measurements, and find that none of them has a significant impact on the cosmological constraints.

<p class="HeadingRunIn"><strong>Phylogenetics of a small caddisfly genus (Thremmatidae: <em>Oligophlebodes</em>): comparison among multiple hypotheses from DNA barcode data</strong></p>

Barcoding datasets can serve as a resource for species associations and delineations, but single-gene trees estimated by distance methods do not provide strong estimates of phylogeny. Using DNA data from the Barcode of Life Database (BOLD), we calculate a phylogenetic tree for Oligophlebodes (Trichoptera: Thremmatidae), a small genus of caddisfly endemic to the Western United States. Here we estimate a preliminary phylogeny for Oligophlebodes using Bayesian likelihood, and compare it to trees produced by distance and standard likelihood methods. Using the barcode region of the cytochrome oxidase 1 (COI) gene, we analyzed 44 individuals representing five species (and 2 unknowns) and a sister-genus outgroup (Neophylax) from locations ranging from Southern New Mexico northwest into British Columbia. Partitioned Bayesian likelihood analysis under the F81 (1st codon positions) and HKY80 + I + Γ (for both the 2nd and 3rd codon positions) model gave the consensus topology (Neophylax toshi, (O. sierra, (O. ruthae inc. spc. 1 & 2, O. sigma, (spc. 3 & 4, (O. ardis, O. minutus)))). Species identifications were supported by monophyly of most species-level taxa. However, confirmation of species identifications of unknowns was complicated by incomplete taxon sampling for spc. 1 & 2. Placement of spc. 3 & 4 may serve as support for taxonomic review of O. minutus. Compared with an existing published phylogeny of Oligophlebodes BOLD sequences constructed under RAxML, the Bayesian hypothesis had higher resolution at the basal node of Oligophlebodes. Because of their support values, both likelihood trees are recommended over the BOLD TaxonID tree (an unrooted neighbor joining tree using the Kimura 2-parameter model). The novel topology produced in the Bayesian tree supports further explorations by likelihood-based methods, including partitioned analyses, of our preliminary Oligophlebodes dataset that can be used as additional lines of evidence to support morphological work.

First report of the Hawaiian genus Newhousia (Dictyotales, Phaeophyceae) from Madang, Papua New Guinea and description of the new species N. yhaga sp. nov.

Abstract The calcified encrusting brown-algal genus Newhousia was collected in 2012 from two sites in Madang Lagoon, northern Papua New Guinea. This is the first report of that enigmatic genus since its original description in 2004 from Oahu in the Hawaiian Islands. Morphologies of thalli from both Papuan localities agree with the original diagnosis and the published figures of the Hawaiian Newhousia imbricata. Ribulose-1,5-biphosphate carboxylase large subunit (rbcL) sequences of Papuan specimens were 96% identical to those of N. imbricata, and although there were no outstanding morphological differences between the Hawaiian and the Papuan specimens, the genetic divergence between the two strongly indicates they are not conspecific. A formal description of the new species, Newhousia yhaga, is provided and the phylogenetic implications of concatenated cox3, psbA and rbcL sequences evaluated. A multi-marker phylogeny was generated in the hope to establish the precise phylogenetic position of Newhousia within the order Dictyotales. Even though both Bayesian inference (BI) and maximum likelihood (ML) analysis point to Newhousia being sister to Lobophora, these results are not supported by ML bootstrap values. The present documentation of Newhousia in a southwest Pacific locality considerably extends the geographical range of this unusual genus.

DETERMINING THE MASS OF KEPLER-78b WITH NONPARAMETRIC GAUSSIAN PROCESS ESTIMATION

Kepler-78b is a transiting planet that is 1.2 times the radius of Earth and orbits a young, active K dwarf every 8 hours. The mass of Kepler-78b has been independently reported by two teams based on radial velocity measurements using the HIRES and HARPS-N spectrographs. Due to the active nature of the host star, a stellar activity model is required to distinguish and isolate the planetary signal in radial velocity data. Whereas previous studies tested parametric stellar activity models, we modeled this system using nonparametric Gaussian process (GP) regression. We produced a GP regression of relevant Kepler photometry. We then use the posterior parameter distribution for our photometric fit as a prior for our simultaneous GP + Keplerian orbit models of the radial velocity datasets. We tested three simple kernel functions for our GP regressions. Based on a Bayesian likelihood analysis, we selected a quasi-periodic kernel model with GP hyperparameters coupled between the two RV datasets, giving a Doppler amplitude of 1.86 $\pm$ 0.25 m s$^{-1}$ and supporting our belief that the correlated noise we are modeling is astrophysical. The corresponding mass of 1.87 $^{+0.27}_{-0.26}$ M$_{\oplus}$ is consistent with that measured in previous studies, and more robust due to our nonparametric signal estimation. Based on our mass and the radius measurement from transit photometry, Kepler-78b has a bulk density of 6.0$^{+1.9}_{-1.4}$ g cm$^{-3}$. We estimate that Kepler-78b is 32$\pm$26% iron using a two-component rock-iron model. This is consistent with an Earth-like composition, with uncertainty spanning Moon-like to Mercury-like compositions.

New discoveries on the ecology and echolocation of the heart-nosed bat Cardioderma cor with a contribution to the phylogeny of Megadermatidae

In this study we report findings in roosting ecology, ectoparasites, echolocation characteristics and the phylogenetic position of Cardioderma cor, an impressive bat species that is distributed throughout the savannas and woodlands of eastern Africa. For individuals caught in Mago National Park, Ethiopia, we recorded broadband frequency-modulated ultrasound signals having very short duration (2 ms) with three harmonic components. The mean peak frequency of the first harmonic was 50.4 kHz and the mean inter-signal interval was 186 ms. Phylogenetic reconstructions of all known species from the family Megadermatidae based on DNA sequences of two mitochondrial and four nuclear genes yielded incongruent topologies (both Bayesian inference and maximum likelihood analysis) with only weak support for nodes. The phylogeny that combined all six loci into a species tree was not congruent with any previous inference based on dental or cranial characteristics, but it suggested separate generic status of two Megaderma species. However, additional genetic data are necessary to resolve the phylogeny of Megadermatidae, a group that probably evolved by simultaneous divergence of all five extant lineages.

AROUND THE RING WE GO: THE COLD, DENSE RING OF MOLECULAR GAS IN NGC 1614

We present high-resolution archival Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA) CO J=3-2 and J=6-5 and HCO+ J=4-3 observations and new CARMA CO and 13CO J=1-0 observations of the luminous infrared galaxy NGC 1614. The high-resolution maps show the previously identified ring-like structure while the CO J=3-2 map shows extended emission that traces the extended dusty features. We combined these new observations with previously published Submillimeter Array CO and 13CO J=2-1 observations to constrain the physical conditions of the molecular gas at a resolution of 230 pc using a radiative transfer code and a Bayesian likelihood analysis. At several positions around the central ring-like structure, the molecular gas is cold (20-40 K) and dense (> 10^{3.0} cm^{-3}) . The only region that shows evidence of a second molecular gas component is the "hole" in the ring. The CO-to-13CO abundance ratio is found to be greater than 130, more than twice the local interstellar medium value. We also measure the CO-to-H_{2} conversion factor, alpha_{CO}, to range from 0.9 to 1.5 M_sol (K km/s pc^{2})^{-1}.

HERSCHEL-SPIRE FOURIER TRANSFORM SPECTROMETER OBSERVATIONS OF EXCITED CO AND [C I] IN THE ANTENNAE (NGC 4038/39): WARM AND COLD MOLECULAR GAS

We present Herschel SPIRE-FTS observations of the Antennae (NGC 4038/39), a well studied, nearby ($22$ Mpc) ongoing merger between two gas rich spiral galaxies. We detect 5 CO transitions ($J=4-3$ to $J=8-7$), both [CI] transitions and the [NII]$205\mu m$ transition across the entire system, which we supplement with ground based observations of the CO $J=1-0$, $J=2-1$ and $J=3-2$ transitions, and Herschel PACS observations of [CII] and [OI]$63\mu m$. Using the CO and [CI] transitions, we perform both a LTE analysis of [CI], and a non-LTE radiative transfer analysis of CO and [CI] using the radiative transfer code RADEX along with a Bayesian likelihood analysis. We find that there are two components to the molecular gas: a cold ($T_{kin}\sim 10-30$ K) and a warm ($T_{kin} \gtrsim 100$ K) component. By comparing the warm gas mass to previously observed values, we determine a CO abundance in the warm gas of $x_{CO} \sim 5\times 10^{-5}$. If the CO abundance is the same in the warm and cold gas phases, this abundance corresponds to a CO $J=1-0$ luminosity-to-mass conversion factor of $\alpha_{CO} \sim 7 \ M_{\odot}{pc^{-2} \ (K \ km \ s^{-1})^{-1}}$ in the cold component, similar to the value for normal spiral galaxies. We estimate the cooling from H$_2$, [CII], CO and [OI]$63\mu m$ to be $\sim 0.01 L_{\odot}/M_{\odot}$. We compare PDR models to the ratio of the flux of various CO transitions, along with the ratio of the CO flux to the far-infrared flux in NGC 4038, NGC 4039 and the overlap region. We find that the densities recovered from our non-LTE analysis are consistent with a background far-ultraviolet field of strength $G_0\sim 1000$. Finally, we find that a combination of turbulent heating, due to the ongoing merger, and supernova and stellar winds are sufficient to heat the molecular gas.

Herschel-SPIRE Fourier transform spectroscopy of the nearby spiral galaxy IC 342★

We present observations of the nearby spiral galaxy IC342 with the Herschel Spectral and Photometric Imaging Receiver (SPIRE) Fourier Transform Spectrometer. The spectral range afforded by SPIRE, 196-671 microns, allows us to access a number of 12CO lines from J=4--3 to J=13--12 with the highest J transitions observed for the first time. In addition we present measurements of 13CO, [CI] and [NII]. We use a radiative transfer code coupled with Bayesian likelihood analysis to model and constrain the temperature, density and column density of the gas. We find two 12CO components, one at 35 K and one at 400 K with CO column densities of 6.3x10^{17} cm^{-2} and 0.4x10^{17} cm^{-2} and CO gas masses of 1.26x10^{7} Msolar and 0.15x10^{7} Msolar, for the cold and warm components, respectively. The inclusion of the high-J 12CO line observations, indicate the existence of a much warmer gas component (~400 K) confirming earlier findings from H_{2} rotational line analysis from ISO and Spitzer. The mass of the warm gas is 10% of the cold gas, but it likely dominates the CO luminosity. In addition, we detect strong emission from [NII] 205microns and the {3}P_{1}->{3}P_{0} and {3}P_{2} ->{3}P_{1} [CI] lines at 370 and 608 microns, respectively. The measured 12CO line ratios can be explained by Photon-dominated region (PDR) models although additional heating by e.g. cosmic rays cannot be excluded. The measured [CI] line ratio together with the derived [C] column density of 2.1x10^{17} cm^{-2} and the fact that [CI] is weaker than CO emission in IC342 suggests that [CI] likely arises in a thin layer on the outside of the CO emitting molecular clouds consistent with PDRs playing an important role.

A revision of Afrotropical Quasimodo flies (Diptera: Schizophora; Curtonotidae). Part IV—the continental Afrotropical species of Curtonotum Macquart, with descriptions of thirteen new species and a combined phylogenetic analysis of the Curtonotidae.

A first comprehensive phylogeny of the entire family Curtonotidae is generated from molecular markers and morphology. The molecular data set comprises 33 taxa (30 in-group Curtonotidae; three out-groups: Camilla, Diastata, Drosophila) and 4 gene regions from 3 genes: 2 non-contiguous fragments from the CPSase (carbamoylphosphate synthetase) domain of the nuclear protein coding gene CAD (= CAD1 and CAD3); a fragment from the coding region of TPI (triosephosophate isomerase); and a fragment of the mitochondrial gene CO1 (cytochrome oxidase 1). We performed Bayesian like-lihood analyses in the program MrBayes 3.2; maximum likelihood analyses in the program Garli 2.0; and parsimony analysis in TNT on the concatenated genetic dataset. A data matrix of 62 discrete, morphological features of imagines was compiled from 75 taxa (70 in-group Curtonotidae taxa and five out-group exemplars: Amiota, Camilla, Diastata, Drosophila, Stegana), and these data are presented as Appendix II. For the combined morphological and molecular data a Bayes-ian likelihood analysis in the program MrBayes 3.2 and a parsimony analysis in TNT were performed, and for the morphological dataset a parsimony analysis was carried out in TNT. Results of the molecular and morphological analyses attest to the monophyly of the Curtonotidae and clearly indicate two primary clades, with Axinota + Curtonotum being sister to the remainder of the Curtonotidae. Curtonotum sensu stricto (sensu Klymko and Marshall 2011) is here adopted and ten newly-defined species-groups of the genus Curtonotum are recognised the: anus; boeny; campsiphallum; gonzo; platyphallum; rinhatinana; saheliense; striatifrons; stuckenbergi; and uncinatum species-groups. The following nomenclatorial changes are proposed: Cyrtona appendiculata Séguy, 1938 is formally reinstated as a valid species and is re-moved as a junior synonym of Cyrtona pictipennis (Thomson, 1869). The former variety name sublineata (Duda, 1939) is upgraded to a specific name, as Parapsinota sublineata (Duda, 1939). The continental Afrotropical fauna of the genus Curtonotum Macquart, 1844 is revised and a diagnosis of the genus is provided. Known biology, behaviour and published information on immature stages of the genus are briefly reviewed. Type material of 12 of the 13 named species (C. angolense Tsacas, C. campsiphallum Tsacas, C. cuthbertsoni Duda, C. herrero Tsacas, C. pauliani Tsacas, C. platyphallum Tsacas, C. quinquevittatum Curran, C. saheliense Tsacas, C. sao Tsacas, C. simile Tsacas, C. striatifrons Malloch and C. tigrinum Séguy), was studied and errors in previous interpretations and designation of type specimens are resolved. Curtonotum pauliani is the only species occurring on both the continental African mainland and Madagascar. The type spec-imen of C. maculiventris (Enderlein) is lost and a neotype is here designated. One species synonymy is proposed: C. tigrinum Séguy, 1933 = C. maculiventris (Enderlein, 1917), syn. n. Additional material of the aforementioned species is noted, substantially increasing their known distributions. Thirteen species are described as new, namely: C. bicuspis Kirk- Spriggs, sp. n., C. cimbebas Kirk-Spriggs, sp. n., C. constance Kirk-Spriggs, sp. n., C. freidberg Kirk-Spriggs, sp. n., C. gonzo Kirk-Spriggs, sp. n., C. hay Kirk-Spriggs, sp. n., C. litoralis Kirk-Spriggs, sp. n., C. marriott Kirk-Spriggs, sp. n., C. mcgregor Kirk-Spriggs, sp. n., C. moffatt Kirk-Spriggs, sp. n., C. tsacas Kirk-Spriggs, sp. n., C. uncinatum Kirk- Spriggs, sp. n. and C. unicuspis Kirk-Spriggs, sp. n. The head and thorax, frons, wing, fifth sternite and hypandrium of the male of the 25 named species are illustrated for the first time, as well as the highly diagnostic male phallus, from both the right and left sides laterally. A key to species based on male characters is provided, and species distributions are mapped and interpreted according to major vegetation types, topography and humidity zones. The biogeographical signif-icance of the continental Afrotropical species is discussed. Co-ordinates used to plot maps and a list of Major Habitat Types and Vegetation Types in which species occur are provided as Appendix III.

The status of the e± cosmic-ray anomaly

Via a Bayesian likelihood analysis using 219 cosmic ray data points we extract the anomalous part of the cosmic e± flux. First we show that a serious tension exists between the e fluxes and the rest of the data. Interpreting this tension as effect of an anomalous component on the e± related data, we then infer the values of selected cosmic ray propagation parameters excluding the anomalous data sample from the analysis. Based on these values we calculate background predictions with theoretical uncertainties for PAMELA and Fermi-LAT. We find a statistically significant deviation between the Fermi-LAT e− + e+ data and the predicted background even when (systematic) uncertainties are taken into account. Identifying this deviation as an anomalous e± contribution, we make an attempt to distinguish between various sources that may be responsible for the anomalous e± flux.

The cool and warm molecular gas in M82 with Herschel-SPIRE

AbstractWe present Herschel-SPIRE imaging spectroscopy (194-671 μm) of the bright starburst galaxy M82. We use RADEX and a Bayesian Likelihood Analysis to simultaneously model the temperature, density, column density, and filling factor of both the cool and warm components of molecular gas traced by the entire CO ladder up to J=13-12. The high-J lines observed by SPIRE trace much warmer gas (~500 K) than those observable from the ground. The addition of 13CO (and [C I]) is new and indicates that [C I] may be tracing different gas than 12CO. At such a high temperature, cooling is dominated by molecular hydrogen; we conclude with a discussion on the possible excitation processes in this warm component. Photon-dominated region (PDR) models require significantly higher densities than those indicated by our Bayesian likelihood analysis in order to explain the high-J CO line ratios, though cosmic-ray enhanced PDR models can do a better job reproducing the emission at lower densities. Shocks and turbulent heating are likely required to explain the bright high-J emission.

HERSCHEL-SPIRE IMAGING SPECTROSCOPY OF MOLECULAR GAS IN M82

We present new Herschel-SPIRE imaging spectroscopy (194-671 microns) of the bright starburst galaxy M82. Covering the CO ladder from J=4-3 to J=13-12, spectra were obtained at multiple positions for a fully sampled ~ 3 x 3 arcminute map, including a longer exposure at the central position. We present measurements of 12CO, 13CO, [CI], [NII], HCN, and HCO+ in emission, along with OH+, H2O+ and HF in absorption and H2O in both emission and absorption, with discussion. We use a radiative transfer code and Bayesian likelihood analysis to model the temperature, density, column density, and filling factor of multiple components of molecular gas traced by 12CO and 13CO, adding further evidence to the high-J lines tracing a much warmer (~ 500 K), less massive component than the low-J lines. The addition of 13CO (and [CI]) is new and indicates that [CI] may be tracing different gas than 12CO. No temperature/density gradients can be inferred from the map, indicating that the single-pointing spectrum is descriptive of the bulk properties of the galaxy. At such a high temperature, cooling is dominated by molecular hydrogen. Photon-dominated region (PDR) models require higher densities than those indicated by our Bayesian likelihood analysis in order to explain the high-J CO line ratios, though cosmic-ray enhanced PDR models can do a better job reproducing the emission at lower densities. Shocks and turbulent heating are likely required to explain the bright high-J emission.

EXTRACTING THE SIZE OF THE COSMIC ELECTRON-POSITRON ANOMALY

We isolated the anomalous part of the cosmic electron-positron flux within a Bayesian likelihood analysis. Using 219 recent cosmic ray spectral data points, we inferred the values of selected cosmic ray propagation parameters. In the context of the propagation model coded in GalProp, we found a significant tension between the electron positron related and the rest of the fluxes. Interpreting this tension as the presence of an anomalous component in the electron-positron related data, we calculated background predictions for PAMELA and Fermi-LAT based on the non-electron-positron related fluxes. We found a deviation between the data and the predicted background even when uncertainties, including systematics, were taken into account. We identified this deviation with the anomalous electron-positron contribution. We briefly compared this model independent signal to some theoretical results predicting such an anomaly.

Diversification rates in the Australasian endemic grass Austrostipa: 15 million years of constant evolution

Patterns seen in other Australian flora have led to hypotheses that early Miocene shifts in climate drove rapid radiation of major taxonomic groups such as Eucalyptus. Little is known about absolute dates and rates for Australian monocots, particularly grasses. I tested this early Miocene radiation hypothesis for Australian grasses using a calibrated phylogeny of the endemic stipoid genus Austrostipa and an analysis of diversification rates. The phylogeny was developed from a Bayesian likelihood analysis of the nuclear internal transcribed spacers region, and three calibration points were set based on fossil evidence. The results indicate that the genus arose in the early Miocene and underwent a species radiation, but the rate of diversification was not rapid compared to the current rate or to those of other taxa. Following an 8 million year period of fast molecular evolution but no taxonomic radiation, diversification rates have been constant for the past 15 million years. Comparable measures such as the gamma statistic can be used across taxa to make general conclusions about evolutionary rate constancy.