Abstract
Via a Bayesian likelihood analysis using 219 cosmic ray data points we extract the anomalous part of the cosmic e± flux. First we show that a serious tension exists between the e fluxes and the rest of the data. Interpreting this tension as effect of an anomalous component on the e± related data, we then infer the values of selected cosmic ray propagation parameters excluding the anomalous data sample from the analysis. Based on these values we calculate background predictions with theoretical uncertainties for PAMELA and Fermi-LAT. We find a statistically significant deviation between the Fermi-LAT e− + e+ data and the predicted background even when (systematic) uncertainties are taken into account. Identifying this deviation as an anomalous e± contribution, we make an attempt to distinguish between various sources that may be responsible for the anomalous e± flux.
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