Oregon Basin Research Articles

Empirical ground-motion basin response in the California Great Valley, Reno, Nevada, and Portland, Oregon

We assess how well the Next-Generation Attenuation-West 2 (NGA-West2) ground-motion models (GMMs), which are used in the US Geological Survey’s (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for crustal faults in the western United States, predict the observed basin response in the Great Valley of California, the Reno basin in Nevada, and Portland and Tualatin basins in Oregon. These GMMs rely on site parameters such as the time-averaged shear-wave velocity ( VS) in the upper 30 m of Earth’s crust ( VS30) and depths to 1.0 and 2.5 km/s shear-wave isosurfaces ( Z1.0 and Z2.5) to capture basin effects and were developed using observations and simulations primarily from the Los Angeles region in southern California. Using ground-motion records from mostly small-to-moderate earthquakes and mixed-effects regression analysis, we find that the GMMs perform well with our local basin-depth models for the California Great Valley. With our local basin-depth models for Reno, the GMMs do not perform as well for this relatively shallow basin and exhibit little sensitivity to the basin parameters used in the NGA-West2 GMMs. We also find good performance for the local Z1.0 model across the Portland region, whereas the local Z2.5 model provides little predictive power except at sites in the deepest part of the Tualatin basin. Additional work could improve the performance of the site and basin terms in the NGA-West2 GMMs for regions with geologic structure different than the deep basins in southern California and the Great Valley. In addition, we find significant discrepancies among the GMMs in how the uncertainty in the ground motion varies with basin depth and pseudospectral period. Our results can help guide seismic hazard analyses on whether to include these local basin-depth models.

Host plant preference of Lygus hesperus (Hemiptera: Miridae) in 4 field crops: potato, alfalfa, carrot, and pea.

The western tarnished plant bug, Lygus hesperus (Knight), has emerged as a pest of potatoes (Solanum tuberosum L.) in the Lower Columbia Basin of Oregon and Washington. This species is generally found infesting several other field-grown crops in the region; however, their host preference is poorly understood. Thus, greenhouse cage experiments were conducted to evaluate L. hesperus host preference by simultaneously presenting adults with 4 host plants: potato, alfalfa, Medicago sativa L., carrot, Daucus carota L., and pea, Pisum sativum L. In addition, an oviposition test was conducted. The results indicated that L. hesperus actively chose as a host and as an oviposition substrate among the 4 host plants. We found a significantly higher number of adults on alfalfa and potato plants over carrot or pea plants at 6 h, 24 h, and 48 h after adults were released into the cage. However, 96 h after release, more L. hesperus were found in alfalfa. In addition, female L. hesperus strongly preferred potato and alfalfa plants as an oviposition substrate over carrot and pea plants at 96 h after release.

Developing lygus bug control strategies in potatoes: plant variety, vertical distribution effect, and insecticide efficacy studies.

The Columbia Basin of Oregon and Washington is one of the most productive potatoes, Solanum tuberosum L., growing regions in the United States affected by numerous insect pests. Lygus bugs, Lygus spp. (Hemiptera: Miridae), are an increasing problem in potatoes. In 2015, after an outbreak of lygus bugs in potatoes in the Columbia Basin, potato producers used multiple applications of insecticides to control lygus bugs. However, it is poorly researched whether lygus bugs can cause economic damage to the crop. Therefore, our objectives were (i) to determine lygus bugs presence in potato plants, (ii) to determine damage on most commonly grown potato varieties (e.g., Alturas Russet, Ranger Russet, Umatilla Russet, Russet Burbank, and Clearwater Russet), (iii) to determine the number of insecticide applications needed to control lygus bugs, and (iv) to estimate the relationship between lygus bug density and potato yield loss. This study demonstrated that the lygus complex is widely present in the Columbia Basin, Lygus spp. prefers the upper 1/3 section of potato plants in all varieties tested, and the number of applications throughout a field season does not affect yield regardless of variety.

A far-traveled basalt lava flow in north-central Oregon, USA

Widely separated basalt lava-flow outcrops in north-central Oregon, USA, expose products of a single eruptive episode. A Pliocene lava flow, here informally termed the Tetherow basalt, issued from vents near Redmond, in the Deschutes basin of Oregon, as a plains-forming basalt now exposed in continuous outcrops northward for 60 km. A similar basalt crops out 47 km farther north, near Maupin, within what was then a slightly incised ancestral Deschutes River canyon. The northernmost outcrops of this lava flow lie on Fulton Ridge, in the Dalles basin, near the confluence of the Deschutes and Columbia Rivers. Complementary lines of evidence confirm these rocks are all from the same volcanic eruption. Outcrops in the Deschutes and Dalles basins are chemically similar high-titanium basalts, petrographically similar to each other and distinct from other lava flows in the area. Paleomagnetic directions from 11 scattered sites are similar and indistinguishable by various tests for a common mean. Three new 40Ar/39Ar ages indicate the Tetherow basalt eruption occurred between 5.5 Ma and 5.0 Ma, likely at ca. 5.2 Ma. The widely separated outcrops of this lava flow span 160−180 km along the ancestral Deschutes River and downstream Columbia River. The lava flow’s length and erupted volume of 15−20 km3 are extraordinarily large in a non-flood-basalt setting. This lava flow provides a datum with which to describe regional physiographic history, assess incision rates, and infer tectonic history. Spanning different depositional basins, the Tetherow basalt is a useful chronologic and stratigraphic marker bed.

Predicting dissolved oxygen level using Young's double-slit experiment optimizer-based weighting model

Accurate prediction of the dissolved oxygen level (DOL) is important for enhancing environmental conditions and facilitating water resource management. However, the irregularity and volatility inherent in DOL pose significant challenges to achieving precise forecasts. A single model usually suffers from low prediction accuracy, narrow application range, and difficult data acquisition. This study proposes a new weighted model that avoids these problems, which could increase the prediction accuracy of the DOL. The weighting constructs of the proposed model (PWM) included eight neural networks and one statistical method and utilized Young's double-slit experimental optimizer as an intelligent weighting tool. To evaluate the effectiveness of PWM, simulations were conducted using real-world data acquired from the Tualatin River Basin in Oregon, United States. Empirical findings unequivocally demonstrated that PWM outperforms both the statistical model and the individual machine learning models, and has the lowest mean absolute percentage error among all the weighted models. Based on two real datasets, the PWM can averagely obtain the mean absolute percentage errors of 1.0216%, 1.4630%, and 1.7087% for one-, two-, and three-step predictions, respectively. This study shows that the PWM can effectively integrate the distinctive merits of deep learning methods, neural networks, and statistical models, thereby increasing forecasting accuracy and providing indispensable technical support for the sustainable development of regional water environments.

Impacts of Max-Stable Process Areal Exceedance Calculations to Study Area Sampling Density, Surface Network Precipitation Gage Extent and Density, and Model Fitting Method

Max-stable process (MSP) models can be fit to data collected over a spatial domain to estimate areal-based exceedances while accounting for spatial dependence in extremes. They have theoretical grounding within the framework of extreme value theory (EVT). In this work, we fit MSP models to three-day duration cool season precipitation maxima in the Willamette River Basin (WRB) of Oregon and to 48 h mid-latitude cyclone precipitation annual maxima in the Upper Trinity River Basin (TRB) of Texas. In total, 14 MSP models were fit (seven based on the WRB data and seven based on the TRB data). These MSP model fits were developed and applied to explore how user choices of study area sampling density, gage extent, and model fitting method impact areal precipitation-frequency calculations. The impacts of gage density were also evaluated. The development of each MSP involved the application of a recently introduced trend surface modeling methodology. Significant reductions in computing times were achieved, with little loss in accuracy, applying random sample subsets rather than the entire grid when calculating areal exceedances for the Cougar dam study area in the WRB. Explorations of gage extent revealed poor consistency among the TRB MSPs with modeling the generalized extreme value (GEV) marginal distribution scale parameter. The gauge density study revealed the robustness of the trend surface modeling methodology. Regardless of the fitting method, the final GEV shape parameter estimates for all fourteen MSPs were greater than their prescribed initial values which were obtained from spatial GEV fits that assumed independence among the extremes. When two MSP models only differed by their selected fitting method, notable differences were observed with their dependence and trend surface parameter estimates and resulting areal exceedances calculations.

Evaluating the Efficacy of Targeted Cattle Grazing for Fuel Break Creation and Maintenance

Invasive and highly flammable annual grasses continue to alter wildfire regimes across rangelands of the western United States. These hazardous fuels have contributed to the increasing prevalence of western megafires in recent decades. It is clear that existing rangeland fuel management strategies are challenged to keep pace with this growing threat. Targeted livestock grazing, however, might serve as a novel and effective fuels management tool that could be wielded at a scale commensurate with the annual grass–wildfire problem. Unfortunately, this practice has lacked a rigorous scientific foundation to support broad-scale application and decision making. We evaluated the efficacy of targeted beef cattle grazing, applied during the spring, for reducing herbaceous fuel heights, loads, and continuity while maintaining ecosystem health in fuel breaks strategically positioned between invaded, fire-prone landscapes and wildland-urban interface, greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) habitat, and other critical resources threatened by wildfire damage. Our broad-scale experiment was conducted during 2017–2021 as three replicate research projects distributed across the northern Great Basin of Idaho, Nevada, and Oregon. We found targeted grazing in spring reduced total herbaceous and cheatgrass fuel heights and, in some cases, total 1-h and cheatgrass fuels loads and fuel continuity, while producing no consistent adverse effects or trends in ecosystem health within the fuel break treatments relative to nominally grazed controls. One targeted grazed fuel break in this research successfully intercepted three wildfires in 4 yr conserving sage-grouse habitat downwind. Although additional research is required, these findings suggest targeted grazing provides an effective means of reducing fine fuels while avoiding adverse ecosystem impacts. Some expected outcomes from the use of this tool would be improved wildland firefighting safety and efficacy, reduced wildfire size, and enhanced protection of human lives, property, and critical natural and cultural resources within the broad scope of annual grass-wildfire problem.

CONTRASTING HOME RANGE CHARACTERISTICS AND PREY OF SYMPATRIC HAWKS (BUTEO SPP) NESTING IN THE UPPER COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN

Between 2007 and 2021 we monitored adult hawks (Buteo spp.) nesting in the upper Columbia River Basin of Washington and Oregon using global positioning system (GPS) telemetry on 17 Ferruginous Hawks (B. regalis), 9 Red-tailed Hawks (B. jamaicensis), and 14 Swainson's Hawks (B. swainsoni). Our main objectives were to: (1) provide contemporary home-range estimates using fixes generated by the global positioning system to better inform protective buffers on Buteo ranges in the Columbia River Basin; and (2) describe prey analyzed from pellets collected at 47 Buteo territories. Breeding home ranges (Brownian bridge movement model, 95% isopleths) of Ferruginous Hawks (B. regalis) were substantially larger (x̄ = 378, sx = 133 km2) than those published previously, as were home ranges of Swainson's Hawks (x̄ = 276, sx = 146 km2) and Red-tailed Hawks (x̄ = 28, sx = 12 km2). Diets of Ferruginous Hawks on the study area were dominated (60%) by Northern Pocket Gophers (Thomomys talpoides), whereas Swainson's Hawks primarily (83%) ate grasshoppers (Apote notablis and Melanoplus spp.). Red-tailed Hawks ate a less-specialized diet of reptiles (40%), mammals (38%), and birds (13%). We provide models that show the probable degree of protection afforded by different-sized buffers when applied to species-specific home ranges and core areas for hawks in the Columbia River Basin.

Managing Arbuscular Mycorrhizal Fungi in Arid Columbia Basin Vineyards of the Pacific Northwest United States

<h3>Abstract</h3> <h3>Background and goals</h3> Arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) are root symbionts that help grapevines acquire nutrients from soil. Growers in many regions, including the Columbia River basin of Oregon and Washington, lack information needed to best manage AMF. Such lacking information includes understanding whether natural AMF populations are sufficient to ensure healthy colonization in new plantings, and what factors influence AMF in established plantings. <h3>Methods and key findings</h3> AMF colonization of grapevine fine roots was determined in 32 commercial vineyards and in a vineyard that was heavily infested by the northern root-knot nematode (NRKN, <i>Meloidogyne hapla</i>). Root colonization by AMF was as extensive in young vines (one- to two-years-old) as in older vines (&gt;15-years-old) examined in the survey, and was high throughout the season in the single vineyard trial. AMF colonization was greater overall in red wine grape cultivars than in white wine grape cultivars. AMF colonization correlated negatively with soil nitrate and leaf nitrogen (N) concentrations across vineyards, while arbuscules in roots correlated negatively with NRKN populations in soil. Both AMF and arbuscules in roots correlated negatively with NRKN populations per unit of fine root length at the beginning and end of the growing season in the heavily infested vineyard. <h3>Conclusions and significance</h3> Results suggest that AMF populations in soils of the Columbia River basin are ample to ensure high levels of grapevine root colonization, so inoculation is likely not needed when planting or replanting vineyards in the region. AMF colonization was reduced by high N and high populations of NRKN in soil.

Wetland phosphorus dynamics and phosphorus removal potential.

Wetlands are typically defined as inundated areas with hydric soils forming a transitional zone between terrestrial and aquatic systems. Wetlands have numerous ecosystem benefits, one of which is the potential to mitigate or reverse eutrophication of surface water bodies. The physical, chemical, and biological processes governing phosphorus cycling in wetlands are nuanced and complex; understanding these has direct relevance to the restoration of wetlands, particularly for projects aimed at improving water quality in adjacent water bodies. This literature review summarizes these processes and provides recommendations relevant to restoration of permanent and semipermanent flow-through wetlands, such as those in the Upper Klamath Basin of Oregon. It also reviews several wetland restoration studies assessing phosphorus removal. In summary, appropriately designed and managed wetlands can remove 25% to 44% of inflowing total phosphorus. Deposition of particulate matter, adsorption, uptake by biomass, and peat accretion are the primary phosphorus sequestration mechanisms in wetlands, depending on site-specific conditions (e.g., growing season length, vegetation communities, and soil type). In areas with relatively short growing seasons and where wintertime loads are targeted for treatment, as in the Upper Klamath Basin, deposition of particulate matter will be the primary mechanism for phosphorus sequestration in wetlands given that two of the three remaining processes occur during the growing season. Recommendations to maximize phosphorus sequestration in wetlands include the following: designing wetlands for hydraulic residence time of several days to weeks, managing wetlands for rapid establishment of wetland vegetation with limited decomposition potential (e.g., tule [hardstem bulrush] to facilitate peat accretion), and flooding during periods with low water temperatures and initially isolating restored wetlands from adjacent water bodies (both to minimize diffusive flux of phosphorus from wetland sediment to the water column). Relevant to the Upper Klamath Basin, there is also justification to prioritize areas with relatively high particulate phosphorus load given the potential limited capacity for phosphorus treatment associated with other sequestration mechanisms. Finally, a combination of mitigation and restoration strategies is necessary to achieve water quality objectives, meaning that wetland restoration alone may not be sufficient. Monitoring is advised to facilitate application of adaptive management principles. PRACTITIONER POINTS: Appropriately designed and managed wetlands can remove 25% to 44% of inflowing total phosphorus. Deposition of particulate matter, adsorption, uptake by biomass, and peat accretion are the primary phosphorus sequestration mechanisms in wetlands, depending on site-specific conditions (e.g., growing season length, vegetation communities, and soil type). Recommendations to maximize phosphorus sequestration in wetlands include designing wetlands for hydraulic residence time of several days to weeks; managing wetlands for rapid establishment of wetland vegetation with limited decomposition potential (e.g., tule [hardstem bulrush], to facilitate peat accretion); and flooding during periods with low water temperatures and initially isolating restored wetlands from adjacent water bodies (both to minimize diffusive flux of phosphorus from wetland sediment to the water column). A combination of mitigation and restoration strategies are necessary to achieve water quality objectives, meaning that wetland restoration alone may not be sufficient. Monitoring is advised to facilitate application of adaptive management principles.

Sensitivity Analysis of Wind and Turbulence Predictions With Mesoscale‐Coupled Large Eddy Simulations Using Ensemble Machine Learning

AbstractCoupling between mesoscale models and large‐eddy simulation (LES) models is increasingly used to more realistically represent the wide range of scales of atmospheric motions affecting boundary layer winds and turbulence that need to be simulated accurately for applications such as wind energy. However, such mesoscale‐to‐microscale coupled modeling frameworks are potentially affected by a large number of uncertain closure parameters. Here, we investigate the sensitivity associated with six closure parameters related to a 1.5‐order subgrid‐scale turbulence closure for an ensemble of mesoscale‐coupled LES. The simulations are performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting model nested from horizontal resolutions of greater than a kilometer down to tens of meters. Closure parameters are varied to generate perturbed parameter ensembles for two case studies of highly sheared, convective boundary layers observed in the Columbia Basin of Oregon and Washington during the Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project. Machine learning algorithms are used to explore the sensitivity of LES predictions, considering the effects of the perturbed physical parameters alongside categorical factors such as the case study identity, measurement location, and LES resolution. For the conditions we examine, a single parameter, the eddy viscosity coefficient, is the dominant source of parametric sensitivity and its importance is comparable to the categorical factors for several of the simulation response variables we examine.

The streamwater microbiome encodes hydrologic data across scales

Many fundamental questions in hydrology remain unanswered due to the limited information that can be extracted from existing data sources. Microbial communities constitute a novel type of environmental data, as they are comprised of many thousands of taxonomically and functionally diverse groups known to respond to both biotic and abiotic environmental factors. As such, these microscale communities reflect a range of macroscale conditions and characteristics, some of which also drive hydrologic regimes. Here, we assess the extent to which streamwater microbial communities (as characterized by 16S gene amplicon sequence abundance) encode information about catchment hydrology across scales. We analyzed 64 summer streamwater DNA samples collected from subcatchments within the Willamette, Deschutes, and John Day river basins in Oregon, USA, which range 0.03–29,000 km2 in area and 343–2334 mm/year of precipitation. We applied information theory to quantify the breadth and depth of information about common hydrologic metrics encoded within microbial taxa. Of the 256 microbial taxa that spanned all three watersheds, we found 9.6 % (24.5/256) of taxa, on average, shared information with a given hydrologic metric, with a median 15.6 % (range = 12.4–49.2 %) reduction in uncertainty of that metric based on knowledge of the microbial biogeography. All of the hydrologic metrics we assessed, including daily discharge at different time lags, mean monthly discharge, and seasonal high and low flow durations were encoded within the microbial community. Summer microbial taxa shared the most information with winter mean flows. Our study demonstrates quantifiable relationships between streamwater microbial taxa and hydrologic metrics at different scales, likely resulting from the integration of multiple overlapping drivers of each. Streamwater microbial communities are rich sources of information that may contribute fresh insight to unresolved hydrologic questions.

First occurrences of Palaeogale von Meyer, 1846 in the Pacific Northwest, United States

The feliform carnivoran Palaeogale von Meyer, 1846 first appears in the Eocene of North America and had a Holarctic distribution in the Oligocene and early Miocene. Despite its large range, Palaeogale has not previously been reported from the Pacific Northwest of North America. We report three new specimens from the John Day Basin of Oregon that fill in this geographic gap. The oldest of these is a largely complete cranium from the Turtle Cove Member of the John Day Formation (Oligocene, 30.0-28.9 Ma). The other two specimens are a left and a right dentary from separate individuals, both recovered from the Kimberly Member (Oligocene, 25.3-23.5 Ma). Because Palaeogale species are almost entirely distinguished by their lower dentition, the cranium cannot be identified to species. However, the cranium is the oldest occurrence of the genus in the Pacific Northwest. The absence of a posterior accessory cusp on the p4 and of lateral expansion of the m1 protoconid allows the dentaries to be assigned to an endemic North American species, P. dorothiae MacDonald, 1963. This is not only the first instance of this species in the Pacific Northwest and outside of South Dakota and Nebraska, but also the last known occurrence of P. dorothiae. We expect that these specimens will inform future analyses of phylogenetics, systematics, morphology, and biogeography in Palaeogale.

Flight Potential of Western Tarnished Plant Bug (Hemiptera: Miridae).

The western tarnished plant bug, Lygus hesperus Knight, is an economically important pest of several agricultural crops in the western United States. It is an increasing threat to potato, Solanum tuberosum L. (Solanales: Solanaceae), in the diverse landscape of the Columbia Basin of Oregon and Washington. In this study, flight mills were used to investigate the flight capacity of L. hesperus with the aim of better understand its dispersive characteristics in the agricultural landscape. Explicitly, we investigated the effects of biological factors such as generation, gender, and body weight on the flight potential of adult L. hesperus adults collected from field populations during spring and summer of 2019 and 2020. The study flight parameters assessed were distance, activity, velocity, and diel periodicity. In 24-h flight mill assays, a clear dichotomy pattern was found in sum flown distance for adults that travelled 1 km or shorter and adults that travelled greater than 1 km. Individuals from the summer population flew farther and more actively than those from the overwintered population. Female L. hesperus flew farther and were more active compared to males. Adult body weight before the flight was directly proportional to flight distance and number of flights, but not with velocity. Overwintered L. hesperus adults lost a higher percentage of their pre-flight body weight compared to summer adults over the course of the study. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study that demonstrated that L. hesperus summer adult population has the flight ability to disperse greater distance in the agricultural landscape than overwintered population.

Assessment of Cereal Grain Waste Densities to Aid Waterfowl Conservation Planning in the Klamath Basin

AbstractPostharvest waste seed from cereal grains is a major dietary component of waterfowl in the Klamath Basin in northeastern California and southeastern Oregon, a region that plays host to over a million waterfowl annually. Understanding food abundance is critical to local waterfowl management; therefore, we conducted a study in 2008 to investigate waste grain densities in barley, oat, and wheat fields. We used hierarchal mixed effect models to assess several factors that may affect waste grain densities postharvest. We also compared the effects of residue management practices to measure the effect of these treatments. To understand the scope of postharvest practices, we conducted a weekly road survey to document treatments applied to fields in our study area. We found that region best explained the variance of postharvest waste grain in barley fields, where the Tule Lake region had 89% greater densities than Lower Klamath. Neither harvester age nor baling affected waste grain in oats fields. In wheat fields, the model containing region and lodging ranked highest, where the Tule Lake region had 66% greater waste densities than Lower Klamath, and lodging increased waste grain by 70%. Burning did not reduce waste grain in barley or oat fields. Chisel-disking reduced waste grain by 94% in wheat fields compared with postharvest. Our field treatment survey found that 70% of barley fields were untreated while 18% were disked and 13% were burned and flooded. We estimated that 82% of oat fields were burned postharvest, while 18% were burned and flooded. In wheat, 61% of fields were left untreated, while 16% were disked, 8% were chisel-plowed, and 7% were flooded postharvest. Flooding and burning occurred primarily on National Wildlife Refuges, while disking, chisel-plowing, and postharvest irrigation occurred solely on private properties. Our results indicate that reducing tillage treatments would boost accessibility of cereal grain food resources to waterfowl in the Klamath Basin, and incentives to flood grain fields on private properties should be considered for the same purpose when and where possible.

Conceptualizing Indigenous Cultural Ecosystem Services (ICES) and Benefits under Changing Climate Conditions in the Klamath River Basin and Their Implications for Land Management and Governance

In the Klamath River Basin (KRB) of northern California and southern Oregon, climate-related changes, such as more intense droughts, varied and concentrated precipitation, earlier spring and later fall conditions, extreme temperatures, and decreased snowpack have contributed to increasingly unpredictable plant reproduction and harvest cycles. In this study, we explore contemporary relationships between plants and Indigenous People in the KRB, identifying benefits of cultural ecosystem services (CES) derived from Indigenous stewarding and gathering of culturally significant plants, and discuss how these services may change based on climate change observations and experiences. This study contributes to the conceptualization of Indigenous Cultural Ecosystem Services (ICES), providing a framework for the incorporation of Indigenous concepts, approaches, and perspectives into assessments of ecosystem services (ES) and, particularly, CES. It highlights the value of Indigenous perspectives and observations of climate change effects on plant reproduction and productivity, as well as their contribution to cultural ecosystem resilience and adaptation under changing climate conditions. We propose that incorporating Indigenous concepts and approaches to assessing CES and ES could lead to more holistic management decisions and better-informed climate adaptation initiatives with greater ES for all.

Development of a Tribally-led Gardening Curriculum for Indigenous Preschool Children: The FRESH Study

Development of a Tribally-led Gardening Curriculum for Indigenous Preschool Children: The FRESH Study

Forage Quality and Quantity in Migratory and Resident Mule Deer Summer Ranges

The quality and quantity of forage available to reproductive female ungulates during the summer can influence body condition and lactation, ultimately influencing herd production. The energetic costs of migration can influence individual fitness, thus understanding the mechanisms that drive some individuals in a partially migratory population to migrate, while others remain on winter range year-round, has important conservation and ecological implications. We examined differences in forage quality and quantity between migratory (n = 19) and resident (n = 17) summer home ranges for a population of mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) in the John Day Basin of northeast Oregon. During 2018, we collected vegetation measurements three times throughout the summer (mid-May, mid-June, mid-July) to determine changes in dry matter digestibility (DMD; %) at three different phenological stages (emergent, mature, and cured) for three forage classes (grass, shrub, forbs). On the second visit, at the peak of the growing season, we collected biomass and cover data to determine differences in forage quantity for each forage class between the migratory and resident summer ranges. In mid-June 2019, we revisited a subsample of sites (migratory [n = 5]; resident [n = 5]) to estimate interannual variation. Migratory deer had access to overall higher quality forage at higher-elevation summer ranges. Forbs had the highest forage quality on both summer ranges. Forage quality declined across the entire study area as moisture declined and vegetation senesced. Shrub forage quality was higher (DMD = 54.1%) on resident ranges than migratory ranges (49.7%; P = 0.001). Grasses had higher biomass (26.1 Mg/ha) and cover (50.1 %) than forbs (19.2 Mg/ha; 34.7% cover) or shrubs (20.6 Mg/ha; 6.7% cover) across the entire summer range. Overall, migratory deer had access to higher-quality forage throughout the summer, yet resident deer had access to higher-quality shrub browse. This trade-off in forage availability may partially explain the persistence of a partially migratory population as a bet-hedging strategy on a landscape where low moisture availability and episodic drought and disturbance create variable foraging conditions.

Evaluating Alternative Hierarchical Modeling Approaches for the Estimation of Salmonid Smolt Abundance

AbstractCalibrated estimates of fisheries population abundance are vital in the development and appraisal of management actions. Capture–recapture (CR) experiments are invaluable monitoring tools for estimating abundance of biological populations in general. Many researchers, including those studying out‐migrating juvenile Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha in the Klamath Basin of Oregon and California, have attempted to employ Bayesian B‐splines to smooth temporal variation in abundance estimates. However, concerns about overfitting and reduced precision are common with this approach. We conducted a simulation study assessing the relative fit of the standard Bayesian B‐spline implementation—a B‐spline model of abundance with a random effects (RE) binomial model of recapture probabilities—in comparison with that of three alternative model options: a B‐spline model of abundance with an autoregressive (AR) model of recapture; an AR model of abundance with an RE model of recapture, and an AR model of abundance with an AR model of recapture. We analyzed 1–3 years of CR data from three rotary screw trap sites and simulated data sets of variable completeness to assess each model’s strengths and weaknesses in estimating the underlying data. Results demonstrated that in general, an AR model of abundance coupled with an RE binomial model of recapture was the least biased model, consistently exhibiting no greater than 5% bias in abundance estimates across data sets. The B‐spline abundance models were able to produce narrower 95% credible intervals (CRIs), ranging from 15% to 30% of the parameterized annual abundance value, compared to CRI widths between 23% and 54% from the AR models. However, these narrower CRI widths were commonly errant, with coverage probability rates as low as 50–70% in half of the simulated data set collections compared to over 90% coverage for the AR models. These analyses provide valuable insight and caution for researchers employing modern methods of modeling abundance in natural populations.

Interannual variability in life-stage specific survival and life history diversity of coho salmon in a coastal Oregon basin

We quantified the population dynamics and life history diversity of seven brood years of coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) using a life-cycle approach. Four life history patterns, composed of fry, fry–nomad, parr, and yearling migrants indicated the importance of connectivity and access to a full range of freshwater and estuarine rearing environments through the year. Survival of each life history type varied annually with the yearling migrants contributing an average of 70% to the spawners in all but one return year. Fifty-eight percent of the spawners of the 2013 return year had an estuarine rearing strategy, primarily parr migrants that overwintered in the estuary. Fry migrants, thought to be surplus production, were consistently observed in the estuary and represented in the returning spawners. The annual contribution of alternative rearing strategies to the spawners may support the resilience and viability of the population. We recommend that life cycle models of coho salmon account for the contribution of estuary migrants to the productivity and persistence of coho salmon in support of management and restoration of populations.