Reproduction Number Research Articles

The effectiveness of interventions to manage international wildlife trade

AbstractA range of interventions have been established to manage international wildlife trade and protect traded species; however, there is little consensus as to whether, when, and how they are effective. Here, through a comprehensive, systematic review of >8000 articles, we appraise the evidence for the effectiveness of interventions on conservation, biological, and/or socio‐economic outcomes. Our systematic review examined four intervention types: “laws and regulations”, “detection and enforcement”, “efforts to reduce threats to species”, and “support local livelihoods”. We find that while laws and regulations were most well‐studied, with some reported positive outcomes, over half of articles reported unintended consequences including shifting exploitation and trade routes, increased illegal trade, and socio‐economic trade‐offs. Detection and enforcement efforts appeared effective in protecting target species but limited for high‐value species especially when combined with low reproductive rates. Efforts to reduce threats to species (particularly through area protection) had positive biological impacts, but some socio‐economic trade‐offs were reported. Evidence on community‐based approaches was limited but our review indicated positive synergies occurring between conservation and socio‐economic outcomes. Overall, socio‐economic outcomes were underrepresented, limiting understanding of potentially important socio‐ecological feedbacks. This review furthers understanding of relevant conditions, risks and enabling factors around effectiveness of wildlife trade interventions.

Global stability and bifurcations in a mathematical model for the waste plastic management in the ocean

The use of plastic is very widespread in the world and the spread of plastic waste has also reached the oceans. Observing marine debris is a serious threat to the management system of this pollution. Because it takes years to recycle the current wastes, while their amount increases every day. The importance of mathematical models for plastic waste management is that it provides a framework for understanding the dynamics of this waste in the ocean and helps to identify effective strategies for its management. A mathematical model consisting of three compartments plastic waste, marine debris, and recycle is studied in the form of a system of ordinary differential equations. After describing the formulation of the model, some properties of the model are given. Then the equilibria of the model and the basic reproduction number are obtained by the next generation matrix method. In addition, the global stability of the model are proved at the equilibria. The bifurcations of the model and sensitivity analysis are also used for better understanding of the dynamics of the model. Finally, the numerical simulations of discussed models are given and the model is examined in several aspects. It is proven that the solutions of the system are positive if initial values are positive. It is shown that there are two equilibria E0\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$E^0$$\\end{document} and E∗\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$E^*$$\\end{document} and if BR<1\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$${{\\mathcal {B}}}{{\\mathcal {R}}}<1$$\\end{document}, it is proven that E0\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$E^0$$\\end{document} is globally stable, while when BR>1\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$${{\\mathcal {B}}}{{\\mathcal {R}}}>1$$\\end{document}, the equilibrium E∗\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$E^*$$\\end{document} exists and it is globally stable. Also, at BR=1\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$${{\\mathcal {B}}}{{\\mathcal {R}}}=1$$\\end{document} the model exhibits a forward bifurcation. The sensitivity analysis of BR\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$${{\\mathcal {B}}}{{\\mathcal {R}}}$$\\end{document} concludes that the rates of waste to marine, new waste, and the recycle rate have most effect on the amount of marine debris.

Invasive Studies of Dandelion and other Alien Species Based on Predictive Models

Taraxacum officinale is a plant commonly known as the dandelion. It is a perennial herb native to Eurasia but has been introduced to other parts of the world and is now considered a weed in many areas. Dandelions are used in traditional medicine to treat various ailments and are also used as a food source in some cultures. However, some people regard it as an invasive species, which is a species that is harmful to the biological chain. Some suggest a reason: the dandelion's reproductive rate and ability to survive are so strong that it can easily encroach on the territory of other species, causing their numbers to decline.To protect the whole ecosystem, we need to protect other species from being invaded by dandelions. Therefore, the first problem analyzed is the spread of dandelions, and the main idea for the first problem is the Sprawl prediction-based model. The influence of different environmental factors on the spread of dandelions was considered to predict the number of dandelions after a certain time.The second model is the Logistic model, which considers the competition relationship and also uses MATLAB to draw the image. Showing the relationship between the number of dandelions and that of another species. With some knowledge of the spread and a detailed analysis of the danger of dandelions to other species, we hypothesized two main species and counted their numbers to determine the impact of dandelions. Finally, our group inquired about the concept of invasive species to further analyze whether dandelions fit.

Risk of BSE transmission when fishmeal derived from fish fed bovine spray-dried red blood cells is included in calf milk replacers

The use of residual streams from agricultural production and food consumption containing animal proteins entails the risk of disease transmission as illustrated by the epidemics of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) and African swine fever. To combat this risk, the use of animal proteins in livestock feed was banned in the European Union, resulting in a drain of valuable proteins from the agricultural system. With an increasing call for a circular food system, the use of residual streams as a feed ingredient needs to be reconsidered with the associated disease risks being assessed and mitigated where needed. In this study, we assessed the BSE risk of bovine spray-dried red blood cells (SDRBC) as an ingredient of aquafeed. Fish fed with bovine SDRBC could indirectly result in exposure of ruminants to BSE infectivity because one of the exemptions of the feed ban is the use of fishmeal as an ingredient in calf milk replacers. A quantitative risk model was built to evaluate the BSE infectivity present in blood sourced from a slaughtered BSE-infected cow and the reduction of infectivity due to processing steps along the production chain. The end point of the model was the BSE infectivity, expressed in cattle oral ID50 (CoID50), reaching calves fed calf milk replacer containing fishmeal, and the corresponding probability that this will result in at least one new BSE infection.The expected BSE infectivity in blood from a BSE-infected cow at the clinical end state of infection is 0.75 CoID50 (median value). Infectivity in blood mainly results from cross-contamination with brain tissue during stunning at the slaughterhouse. The initial infectivity is reduced along the pathway from slaughtered cow to calf milk replacer, with the highest reduction achieved by clearance of infectivity by fish fed bovine SDRBC as an ingredient of aquafeed, although this parameter has high uncertainty. The final infectivity reaching calves via inclusion of fishmeal in calf milk replacer is estimated to be very low (median value: 1.1 × 10−5 CoID50). Assuming an exponential dose-response model, this corresponds with an expected probability that < 10 out of a million slaughtered BSE-infected cows will result in new BSE infections, which is far below the threshold value of 1 for the basic reproduction number (R0) to initiate a new epidemic. We thus conclude that it is very unlikely that the use of bovine SDRBC as ingredient of aquafeed will result in a new BSE epidemic in cattle. What-if analysis indicated that this conclusion is robust, despite high uncertainty for some input parameters.

A delay differential equation model on covid-19 with vaccination strategy

In this paper, we have extended SEIR model of COVID-19. The model incorporates two vital aspects in the form of vaccine compartment and constant time delay. The vaccination and time delay provide the information about immune protection and actual existence of the infection among the individuals, respectively. The model is analysed numerically and numerical simulation are executed for three different initial histories and constant time delays which affirm the biological relevance of the system. The analysis includes disease-free equilibrium (DFE), endemic equilibrium, and the basic reproduction number. The stability analysis is performed which reveal the asymptotic stability of the DFE when the basic reproduction number R0 &lt; 1. The study addresses the boundedness and positivity of the solution as the time delay approaches zero. In addition, sensitivity analysis and contour plots for R0 with different parameters offer deeper insights into the model. The impact of vaccination and vaccine inefficacy on the model dynamics is explored.

Dynamical behavior of a fractional-order epidemic model for investigating two fear effect functions

Using the Caputo operator, a model for a fractional-order epidemic is developed to investigate the fear effect in a pathogenic environment and vaccination procedure. First, we examine if the proposed model is positive. Next, based on the value of the control reproduction number Rc, we compute both the control reproduction and strength numbers and derive the stability criteria of the disease-free equilibrium. In fact, we use the comparison theorem to show that the disease-free equilibrium point is globally asymptotically stable whenever Rc<1. Next, we prove that the solutions of the fractional model exist and are unique. Finally, several numerical simulations are conducted to verify our theoretical results.

Strategic approaches to mitigating Hookworm infection: An optimal control and cost-effectiveness analysis

Human hookworm infection remains a serious threat to public health, particularly in highly endemic regions. The high mortality rate associated with this infection emphasizes the urgent need for effective control measures and intervention strategies to curb its spread. A nonlinear deterministic hookworm model with saturated incidence is investigated in this paper. The model exhibits a unique disease-free and endemic equilibria, and the reproduction number is computed and explained. Sensitivity analysis shows that increasing the transmission rate, β, the hatching rate, α, the number of eggs excreted within the environment, Ne, and the rate of excretion of the eggs, γ, significantly increases the reproduction number. Based on this analysis, we extend the model to consider optimal control in the presence of three time-dependent controls namely: sanitation, preventative chemotherapy, and shoe-wearing. We define an objective function to be minimized and the conditions necessary for the optimal control are established and proved using Pontryagin’s maximum principle. We present a one-way analysis of variance to evaluate the impact of constant implementation of the control measures on the number of infected individuals. Numerical simulations also show that hookworm infection can be contained in the presence of all control measures. However, a cost-effectiveness analysis shows that combining shoe-wearing control with preventative chemotherapy is the most cost-effective measure for controlling hookworm infection. The results presented hold substantial implications for public health policy, especially in low-income regions.

Effects of Supplemental Diet during Breeding on Fertility, Litter Size, Survival Rate, and Weaning Weight in Mice (Mus musculus).

The addition of supplemental diets to laboratory animals, specifically rodents, is a common practice for the provision of additional nutritional support. We set out to investigate whether the use of commercially available supplemental diets during breeding affected fertility rate, litter size, pup health, and pup survival. Genetically modified female breeding mice with a C57BL/6 background were divided into 3 groups (n = 16 per group) that received standard rodent chow alone or standard rodent chow with one of 2 commercially available supplemental diets: Love Mash (Bio-Serv) extruded pellet or Nutra-Gel (Bio-Serv) diet gel. Male and female mice began receiving the supplemental diet 1 wk before being paired with a partner of the same supplemental group. The mice were allowed to breed for 1 wk before separation from the male. The dams were continued on the diet until all pups were weaned. Overall, breeding dams supplemented with the Love Mash diet experienced significantly greater reproductive success rates and pup survivability compared with the standard diet control group. Dams supplemented with either of the 2 supplemental diets supported significantly larger litters compared with the standard diet control group. Furthermore, Love Mash supplemented diet groups produced significantly larger pups compared with the Nutra-Gel supplemented groups. This study demonstrates that supplemental diets given 1 wk before breeding and continued throughout gestation, parturition, and weaning significantly improved reproductive success, increased litter sizes, and supported pup health and survival.

Parasite abundance distribution as a model of host-parasite relationships between monogeneans Gyrodactylus spp. and cage-reared rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss.

Aggregation is a fundamental feature of parasite distribution in the host population, but the biological implications of the aggregation indices used to describe the relationships between the populations of parasites and hosts are not evident. It is speculated that the form of distribution in each case is predicated on the host's varying resistance to the infection, which is hard to control, making it difficult to adequately interpret the index values. This paper examines several cases from trout farms in Russian Karelia to explore the monogenean Gyrodactylus spp. infection in rainbow trout of varying ages. The genetic homogeneity of cage-reared fish and the direct life cycle of the helminths make the relationship between the species more lucid than in natural host-parasite systems. The results give no ground to speak of any specific patterns: as well as in the natural systems, the infection rates in trout vary widely, i.e., the helminth distribution has not become more uniform; the observed distributions in all cases are adequately approximated by the negative binomial model; the positive abundance-occupancy relationships (AORs) and abundance-variance relationships (AVRs) common for parasitic systems apply to the basic infection parameters. The form of the negative binomial distribution is shaped by two parameters-k and θ, the former being a metric of the infection variability, which depends on the host's individual resistance, and the latter representing the parasites' reproduction and establishment success rates. A rise in the parameter k indicates increased aggregation and a higher parameter θ points to a more uniform frequency distribution. These parameters can be used as a representative tool for monitoring the parasite communities in salmonid fishes, including in aquaculture.

Modeling the transmission dynamics of banana bunch top disease in banana plants

Banana Bunch Top Disease (BBTD) is a severe viral infection that poses a significant threat to banana production in tropical regions. Caused by the Banana Bunchy Top Virus (BBTV) and transmitted primarily by the banana aphid (Pentalonia nigronervosa), BBTD results in stunted growth and poor fruit production, leading to substantial economic losses. This paper presents a mathematical model to analyze the transmission dynamics of BBTD in banana plants and evaluate various control strategies using the Next Generation Matrix approach to compute the basic reproduction number R0. The study reveals that effective control of aphid populations, timely removal of infected plants, and the use of virus-free planting material significantly reduce the spread of BBTV and improve plant health. Increasing the removal rate γ and managing the transmission rate β are crucial strategies for controlling the disease, while elevated aphid infection rates λ and progression rates σ exacerbate its spread. Numerical simulations highlight the effectiveness of targeted interventions, including the application of pesticides and the introduction of resistant banana varieties. The study recommends that, in addition to current control measures, more focus should be placed on comprehensive monitoring programs, early detection of symptoms, and community education on BBTD management strategies. Enhanced efforts in these areas are crucial to reducing the incidence of BBTD and improving the resilience of banana crops.

A cholera model coupling within-host and between-host with age-dependent and asymptomatic infections

In this paper, a coupling cholera epidemic model is proposed, in which the pathogens could both spread within-host and between-host, meanwhile, there exist age-dependent infection between the asymptomatic and symptomatic infected people. For the fast-time subsystem, the infection-free and endemic equilibria are both globally asymptotically stable. For the slow-time subsystem, the basic reproduction number R0 is determined, by which we observe that the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable (the absence of pathogens in environment) if R0<1, while the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable (the presence of pathogens in environment) when R0>1. The theoretical results are illustrated by numerical simulations, by which we find that age-dependent and asymptomatic infections may further promote cholera spread. Besides, the linking of pathogen transmission at the individual level with infection at the population level could result in forward or backward bifurcation.

A spatio-temporal infection epidemic model with fractional order, general incidence, and vaccination analysis

The paper investigates a spatio-temporal SEIR epidemic model on a global level with fractional order. It employs four partial differential equations incorporating fractional derivatives and account for diffusion to characterize infection dynamics. By applying fixed-point theorem results, the paper establishes the existence, uniqueness, and boundedness of the solution. Equilibrium points are determined based on vaccination values and the basic reproduction number R0. Global stability of each equilibrium is confirmed using the Lyapunov direct method. Through simulations with a predictor–corrector algorithm, key insights into epidemiological dynamics are provided, elucidating the impact of vaccination on reducing disease transmission and altering R0. Trajectories of various compartments closely align with theoretical equilibrium points, affirming the model’s predictive precision. Furthermore, simulations indicate the potential for attaining disease-free equilibria with heightened vaccination rates, underscoring the pivotal role of vaccination strategies in epidemic control and disease eradication. It was shown that the fractional derivative order has no effect on the equilibrium stability but rather only on the convergence speed towards the equilibrium points.

Impact of awareness and time-delayed saturated treatment on the transmission of infectious diseases

We have proposed a mathematical model with saturated incidence and treatment rates along with awareness and delay in treatment. We analyze the model and find the equilibrium points and their stability. We also find the basic reproduction number R0 to understand the disease dynamics. For R0=1, we get transcritical backward bifurcation which means that the disease persists in the population even if R0<1. We performed the sensitivity analysis and found that treatment along with awareness plays a significant role in controlling infectious disease. We deduce that awareness about the disease affects the transmission rate of infection. As people become aware of aspects of the infectious disease, they amend their behavior so that they fend themselves from catching the disease. We have introduced a time lag in treatment and found the threshold value of the time delay. It is observed that when the value of the time delay crosses the threshold value, we get a Hopf bifurcation i.e. endemic steady state becomes unstable above the threshold value and it may become difficult to control the disease beyond the threshold value of delay in treatment.

Onward Virus Transmission after Measles Secondary Vaccination Failure.

Measles in persons with secondary vaccination failure (SVF) may be less infectious than cases in unvaccinated persons. Our systematic review aimed to assess transmission risk for measles after SVF. We searched PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science databases from their inception dates. Inclusion criteria were articles describing persons who were exposed to measles-infected persons who had experienced SVF. Across the included 14 studies, >3,030 persons were exposed to measles virus from SVF cases, of whom 180 were susceptible, indicating secondary attack rates of 0%-6.25%. We identified 109 cases of SVF from the studies; 10.09% (n = 11) of case-patients transmitted the virus, resulting in 23 further cases and yielding an effective reproduction number of 0.063 (95% CI 0.0-0.5). These findings suggest a remarkably low attack rate for SVF measles cases, suggesting that, In outbreak situations, public health management of unvaccinated persons could be prioritized over persons with SVF.

Establishing Primary and Stable Cell Lines from Frozen Wing Biopsies for Cellular, Physiological, and Genetic Studies in Bats.

Bats stand out among mammalian species for their exceptional traits, including the capacity to navigate through flight and echolocation, conserve energy through torpor/hibernation, harbor a multitude of viruses, exhibit resistance to disease, survive harsh environmental conditions, and demonstrate exceptional longevity compared to other mammals of similar size. In vivo studies of bats are challenging for several reasons, such as difficulty in locating and capturing them in their natural environments, limited accessibility, low sample size, environmental variation, long lifespans, slow reproductive rates, zoonotic disease risks, species protection, and ethical concerns. Thus, establishing alternative laboratory models is crucial for investigating the diverse physiological adaptations observed in bats. Obtaining quality cells from tissues is a critical first step for successful primary cell derivation. However, it is often impractical to collect fresh tissue and process the samples immediately for cell culture due to the resources required for isolating and expanding cells. As a result, frozen tissue is typically the starting resource for bat primary cell derivation, but cells in frozen tissue are usually damaged and have low integrity and viability. Isolating primary cells from frozen tissues thus poses a significant challenge. Herein, we present a successfully developed protocol for isolating primary dermal fibroblasts from frozen bat wing biopsies. This protocol marks a significant milestone, as this is the first protocol specifically focused on fibroblast isolation from bat frozen tissue. We also describe methods for primary cell characterization, genetic manipulation of primary cells through lentivirus transduction, and the development of stable cell lines. © 2024 Wiley Periodicals LLC. Basic Protocol 1: Bat wing biopsy collection and preservation Support Protocol 1: Blood collection from bat venipuncture Basic Protocol 2: Isolation of primary fibroblasts from adult bat frozen wing biopsy Support Protocol 2: Primary fibroblast culture and subculture Support Protocol 3: Determination of growth curve and doubling time Support Protocol 4: Cell banking and thawing of primary fibroblasts Basic Protocol 3: Lentiviral transduction of bat primary fibroblasts Basic Protocol 4: Bat stable fibroblast cell line development Support Protocol 5: Bat fibroblast validation by immunofluorescence staining Basic Protocol 5: Chromosome counting.

Combining Masculinizing Resistance, Rotation, and Biocontrol to Achieve Durable Suppression of the Potato Pale Cyst Nematode: A Model.

The pale cyst nematode, Globodera pallida, is a pest that poses a significant threat to potato crops worldwide. The most effective chemical nematicides are toxic to nontarget organisms and are now banned. Alternative control methods are therefore required. Crop rotation and biological control methods have limitations for effectively managing nematodes. The use of genetically resistant cultivars is a promising alternative, but nematode populations evolve, and virulent mutants can break resistance after just a few years. Masculinizing resistances, preventing avirulent nematodes from producing females, might be more durable than blocking resistances, preventing infection. Our demo-genetic model, tracking both nematode population densities and virulence allele frequencies, shows that virulence against masculinizing resistance may not be fixed in the pest population under realistic agricultural conditions. Avirulence may persist despite the uniform use of resistance. This is because avirulent male nematodes may transmit avirulent alleles to their progeny by mating with virulent females. Additionally, because avirulent nematodes do not produce females themselves, they weaken the reproductive rate of the nematode population, leading to a reduction in its density by at least 20%. This avirulence load can even lead to the collapse of the nematode population in theory. Overall, our model showed that combining masculinizing resistance, rotation, and biocontrol may achieve durable suppression of G. pallida in a reasonable time frame. Our work is supported by an online interactive interface allowing users (i.e., growers, plant health authorities, researchers) to test their own control combinations.

Investigation of Toxoplasma gondii Infection in Yunnan Semi-fine Wool Sheep (Ovis aries) and wild Rodents in Yunnan, China.

Toxoplasma gondii, a globally distributed zoonotic obligate intracellular parasite, infects a wide array of mammals, including humans, sheep, and birds. As a unique sheep breed in southwestern China, Yunnan semi-fine wool sheep occupies an important position in animal husbandry in Zhaotong due to its strong adaptability, high reproductive rate, and excellent wool quality. Lambs infected with T. gondii are prone to neurological symptoms and growth retardation, while T. gondii infection in ewes can cause abortions, stillbirths, and deformities, thus affecting sheep reproduction and sheep product quality. Meanwhile, mutton and dairy products contaminated with T. gondii can become potential sources of human infection, potentially threatening public health and safety. To understand the T. gondii infection in semi-fine wool sheep in Zhaotong, Yunnan Province, 586 blood samples were collected and subjected to indirect hemagglutination assay (IHA) for T. gondii antibodies, and the infection-related factors were analyzed through cross-sectional analysis. In the meantime, nested PCR was conducted on a total of 217 samples collected from 31 rodents caught in and around the sheep breeding ground to test the T. gondii B1 gene in rodent tissues. A total of 94 sera tested positive for T. gondii antibodies, with a total positive rate of 16.04% (94/586) (95% CI: 14.77-20.89). Cross-sectional statistical analysis on factors related to semi-fine wool sheep infection rate, including sampling season, sex, age, and weight, suggested that age (< 6 months: 23.81%; 6-12 months: 11.74%; > 12 months: 15.83%) was a significant factor explaining the infection rate differences (P = 0.003 < 0.05, χ2 = 11.62, df = 2). Thus, age was considered a key risk factor for T. gondii infection in this study (odds ratio, OR = 2.35, 95% CI: 1.42-3.87). Nested PCR analysis on 217 (heart, liver, spleen, lung, kidney, brain, and muscle) tissues from the 31 rodents indicated that 11 tested positive. The total infection rate of rodents in and around the breeding ground was 35.48% (11/31), and 14 samples tested positive, with a positive infection rate of 6.45% (14/217). The T. gondii infection rates of semi-fine wool sheep and rodents from their breeding environment in Zhaotong, Yunnan Province, were high, necessitating enhanced prevention, control, and treatment measures to ensure the healthy breeding of semi-fine wool sheep and veterinary public health and safety.

A novel investigation of the influence of vaccination on pneumonia disease

In the entire world, pneumonia is one of the leading causes of death, which is particularly dangerous for young children (those under five years old) and the elderly (those over 65). A deterministic susceptible, vaccinated, exposed, infected, and recovered (SVEIR) model is used in this work to mathematically study the dynamics of pneumonia disease and examine stability analysis, basic reproduction numbers, and equilibrium points of dynamical systems theory models. Spatial equilibria are studied to model disease-free equilibria that are locally asymptotic stable. Numerical simulations of the model have been carried out using MATLAB21. The SVEIR flow and its variables for different parameter sets have been studied through numerical simulations. The solution to the issue is provided through the use of illustrated and explicated results. According to research findings, if vaccination rates rise over the necessary vaccination ratio, the sickness will finally vanish from the community.

A Sensitivity Analysis of the PSITPS Epidemic Model’s Parameters for COVID-19

Given the prevailing circumstances surrounding the transmission of COVID-19, which has been classified as a worldwide epidemic by the World Health Organization, a sensitivity analysis was performed on the Protected-Susceptible-Infected-Treated- Protected- Susceptible ( ) epidemic model. The objective of this analysis was to identify the specific parameters associated with the basic reproduction number that contribute to the propagation of the COVID-19 epidemic in Najaf. The findings indicate that the sensitivity index of parameters exhibiting a positive sign is positively correlated with the extent of the epidemic's spread in Najaf. Conversely, parameters displaying a negative sign are inversely correlated with the spread of the epidemic. The analysis was conducted numerically using MATLAB to confirm the results of the study.

Smart waterborne disease control for a scalable population using biodynamic model in IoT network

We propose a biodynamic model for managing waterborne diseases over an Internet of Things (IoT) network, leveraging the scalability of LoRa IoT technology to accommodate a growing human population. The model, based on fractional order derivatives (FOD), enables smart prediction and control of pathogens that cause waterborne diseases using IoT infrastructure. The human-pathogen-based biodynamic FOD model utilises epidemic parameters (SVIRT: susceptibility, vaccination, infection, recovery, and treatment) transmitted over the IoT network to predict pathogenic contamination in water reservoirs and dumpsites in Iji-Nike, Enugu, the study community in Nigeria. These pathogens contribute to person-to-person, water-to-person, and dumpsite-to-person transmission of disease vectors. Five control measures are proposed: potable water supply, treatment, vaccination, adequate sanitation, and health education campaigns. A stable disease-free equilibrium point is found when the effective reproduction number of the pathogens, R0eff<1 and unstable if R0eff>1. While other studies showed a 98.2% reduction in infections when using IoT alone, this paper demonstrates that combining the SVIRT epidemic control parameters (such as potable water supply and health education campaign) with IoT achieves a 99.89% reduction in infected human populations and a 99.56% reduction in pathogen populations in water reservoirs. Furthermore, integrating treatment with sanitation results in a 99.97% reduction in infected populations. Finally, combining these five control strategies nearly eliminates infection and pathogen populations, demonstrating the effectiveness of multifaceted approaches in public health and environmental management. This study provides a blueprint for governments to plan sustainable smart cities for a growing population, ensuring potable water free from pathogenic contamination,in line with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals #6 (Clean Water and Sanitation) and #11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities).