Abstract Background The slope of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) is a promising surrogate endpoint in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). However, current evidence is mainly derived from Western populations with CKD stages 1–3. In addition, stage-by-stage analysis has never been formally performed. Methods We analyzed data from the Chronic Kidney Disease Japan Cohort Study, which included a large proportion of patients with CKD stages 4 and 5. We estimated eGFR slopes over three evaluation periods (0.5, 1, and 2 years) using mixed effects models and examined their associations with kidney failure with replacement therapy (KFRT) across CKD stages. Results Of 2713 patients with an available 1-year eGFR slope, 985 subsequently initiated kidney replacement therapy. Overall, a slower eGFR decline was strongly associated with a lower risk of subsequent KFRT. The association was pronounced with higher baseline CKD stages and attenuated with shorter evaluation periods. The estimated deceleration in eGFR decline over 1 year associated with a 20% lower risk of subsequent KFRT was 1.91 (1.60–2.37), 1.12 (1.00–1.28), and 1.06 (0.81–1.60) mL/min/1.73 m2 per year in patients with CKD stages 3, 4, and 5, respectively. Conclusion Our results support the potential of eGFR slope as a surrogate across different stages of CKD in Asians and suggest that a shorter evaluation period than 2 years may be feasible for patients with late-stage CKD. Our findings provide valuable insights for the future design of clinical trials in CKD patients, especially those with more advanced CKD.
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