Barrier Island Research Articles

Comparing Vertical Change in Riverine, Bayside, and Barrier Island Wetland Soils in Response to Acute and Chronic Disturbance in Apalachicola Bay, FL

Comparing Vertical Change in Riverine, Bayside, and Barrier Island Wetland Soils in Response to Acute and Chronic Disturbance in Apalachicola Bay, FL

Impact of Hurricane Harvey on the Upper Texas Coast: Using Airborne Lidar Data Sets with UAV-Derived Topographic Data to Monitor Change and Track Recovery

The frequency of hurricanes and tropical storms is increasing; for example, there were a record-breaking 31 named storms during the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season. Texas has historically been susceptible to hurricanes and tropical storms; however, Hurricane Harvey in 2017 was the highest category storm event to cross Texas since 2000. Our regional change analysis used 2016 and 2018 lidar-derived elevation models with 1 m spatial resolution to determine above-sea level changes due to Hurricane Harvey. The upper Texas coast experienced shoreline erosion, with local depositional events occurring on the southeastern sides of jetties and groins. Incidents of dune washout and overwash fans were present along the barrier islands of the upper Texas coast, as well as erosion to foredune complexes and a decrease in dune heights. As of March 2018, recovery is visible through berm buildup and backbeach aggradation. Our multiyear analysis (above sea level) of four sites within Galveston and Follett’s Islands determined the immediate impact of Harvey (2016–2017) and followed recovery until March 2019. The multiyear analysis determined that all four sites experienced varying levels of recovery by 2018. UAV surveys conducted in 2022 showed potential in acquiring topographic data for comparison with 2019 beach-dune conditions.

Undeveloped and developed phases in the centennial evolution of a barrier-marsh-lagoon system: The case of Long Beach Island, New Jersey

Barrier islands and their associated backbarrier environments protect mainland population centers and infrastructure from storm impacts, support biodiversity, and provide long-term carbon storage, among other ecosystem services. Despite their socio-economic and ecological importance, the response of coupled barrier-marsh-lagoon environments to sea-level rise is poorly understood. Undeveloped barrier-marsh-lagoon systems typically respond to sea-level rise through the process of landward migration, driven by storm overwash and landward mainland marsh expansion. Such response, however, can be affected by human development and engineering activities such as lagoon dredging and shoreline stabilization. To better understand the difference in the response between developed and undeveloped barrier-marsh-lagoon environments to sea-level rise, we perform a local morphologic analysis that describes the evolution of Long Beach Island (LBI), New Jersey, over the last 182 years. We find that between 1840 and 1934 the LBI system experienced landward migration of all five boundaries, including 171 meters of shoreline retreat. Between the 1920s and 1950s, however, there was a significant shift in system behavior that coincided with the onset of groin construction, which was enhanced by beach nourishment and lagoon dredging practices. From 1934 to 2022 the LBI system experienced ~22 meters of shoreline progradation and a rapid decline in marsh platform extent. Additionally, we extend a morphodynamic model to describe the evolution of the system in terms of five geomorphic boundaries: the ocean shoreline and backbarrier-marsh interface, the seaward and landward lagoon-marsh boundaries, and the landward limit of the inland marsh. We couple this numerical modeling effort with the map analysis during the undeveloped phase of LBI evolution, between 1840 and 1934. Despite its simplicity, the modeling framework can describe the average cross-shore evolution of the barrier-marsh-lagoon system during this period without accounting for human landscape modifications, supporting the premise that natural processes were the key drivers of morphological change. Overall, these results suggest that anthropogenic effects have played a major role in the evolution of LBI over the past century by altering overwash fluxes and marsh-lagoon geometry; this is likely the case for other barrier-marsh-lagoon environments around the world.

Sigillographic Representation of Archimorphs and Ideograms as Related to the BCCS (Biophysical Cross-Shore Classification System) Using Distributive Vexillology in Coastal Belt Cartographic Displays

Finkl, C.W. and Makowski, C., 2023. Sigillographic representation of archimorphs and ideograms as related to the BCCS (Biophysical Cross-Shore Classification System) using distributive vexillology in coastal belt cartographic displays. Journal of Coastal Research, 39(2), 234–245. Charlotte (North Carolina), ISSN 0749-0208. The sigillation (sigilization) process (i.e. creation of flags, signs, symbols, emblems) provides an opportunity to characterize coastal belts via semiotics through rapid visual inspection of satellite imagery. Emblematic depictions of eco-geomorphological units using the Biophysical Cross-Shore Classification System (BCCS) is offered as a semiotic proposal using graphic symbolization based on the development of a unique color scheme for cross-shore archetypes coupled with ideograms that are derived from predefined archimorphs. The resulting sigil formats are amenable to flagging coastal belts in a symbolization that combines color with ideographic displays. Although compliant to larger scale (smaller areas) coastal surveying and mapping efforts, the sigils are most useful in the characterization of smaller scale (larger areas) satellite image views. Derivation of classificatory units at smaller scales requires zoom capabilities to ascertain the dominant archetypes presented in the coastal sigil flags. In addition to the small-scale presentation of coastal belt characteristics as vexillographic overlays on satellite images, the sigillation process allows the amalgamation of colors and ideographs to represent dimorphic and polymorphic sigil combinations, as in the case, for example, of beach-dune (Be-Du) dimorphs or barrier island (beach-dune-wetland-lagoon-wetland; Be-Du-W-L-W) polymorphs. These color-symbol schema allow for a new kind of kinematic coastal classification mapping, where distributive dynamism results in cartographic displays at presentation scales (depending on paper page size) for using the BCCS. These cognitive mapping procedures compliment algorithmic autoclassification via machine interpretation by providing a rapid and simplified means of coastal characterization based on visual ques and cerebral perceptions.

Development and preservation of transgressive sandy versus rocky shorelines: Observations from the SE African shelf

Relict rocky shorelines are seemingly rarely preserved in the geological record, often underrepresented in the literature and the reasons for their scarcity, as well as the conditions needed for preservation are not well understood. On the “Wild Coast” shelf along the subtropical east coast of South Africa a series of submerged shorelines are present. High-resolution multibeam bathymetry, side scan sonar, ultra-high-resolution seismic profiling and legacy seismic reflection data show several fluvial channels incised into the shelf, associated with the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) lowstand. Palaeo-shorelines are preserved at −85, −75, −60 and −40 m. The −85 and −75 m shorelines reflect sediment abundance and depositional features preserved as lagoonal depressions, lithified barrier-spits and coastal barrier dunes with limited bedrock influence. The shallower shorelines at −60 and −40 m occur on a steeper shelf gradient and reflect the development of rocky headlands, palaeo-cliffs and rock shore platforms. Their occurrence implies increasing bedrock control, erosion and sediment bypass during transgression.The preservation of rocky shoreline signatures on the inner shelf is aided by competency of the bedrock lithologies, in addition to their depth relative to sea-level stillstands and rapid rises in sea level associated with meltwater pulses (MWPs) (notably the −60 m shorelines and MWP1B). MWPs may have helped facilitate the overstepping and eventual preservation of these shoreline landforms on the seabed. Preservation of the −40 m shoreline is considered to correlate with accelerated rates in sea- level rise prior to MWP1C. The preservation of the −85 and −75 m aeolianite shorelines are not linked to meltwater pulses, however, their substantial sediment volume precluded total loss through transgressive erosion and this, coupled with early cementation, promoted their partial preservation. Such deposits rarely survive subaerial exposure but could be preserved if covered by marine sediments. Conversely, the existence of well-preserved, Pleistocene-age rocky shorelines on the shelf points to their high potential for inclusion into the longer-term geological record under subsequent high or low sedimentation. The formation of distinctive rocky shorelines, however, may reflect alternating slow and fast rates of sea-level rise.

Barrier islands influence the assimilation of terrestrial energy in nearshore fishes

We examined the relative importance of landscape features on estuarine fish trophic structure and dependence on terrestrial organic matter (OMterr) in four barrier island lagoon systems along the Alaskan Beaufort Sea coast. Our study compared two relatively large lagoon systems characterized by high river discharge and relatively free ocean water exchanges (central region near Prudhoe Bay, Alaska) with two highly protected lagoons characterized by low river discharge and limited exchange with ocean waters (eastern region near Kaktovik, Alaska). We hypothesized that freshwater discharge would be a strong determinant of food web structure for both resident marine and diadromous fishes if more discharge increases availability of OMterr relative to lagoons with limited or no river inputs. To consider differences in trophic characteristics in fishes between study regions, we estimated community-wide measures of trophic structure (hereafter, community metrics) and the relative use of OMterr from mixing models using stable isotope composition (δ13C and δ15N; muscle tissue) among 12 species and identified the influences of region and body size. Fish captured in lagoons well protected by barrier islands had more distinct and diverse isotopic niches relative to those in more exposed lagoons based on community metrics. The use of OMterr by nearshore fishes in both regions was substantial and was >50% for diadromous species. Between regions, OMterr use differed in 6 of the 8 species considered but was not consistently higher in one region. The relative importance of OMterr varied with fish size in 7 of 10 species considered, with more OMterr used by smaller individuals. This work highlights the importance of OMterr to Arctic fishes and fisheries, some of which are of subsistence importance, even when feeding grounds are primarily marine. We propose that landscape features, particularly barrier islands, play an important role in structuring nearshore food webs. Barrier islands may provide a previously undocumented ecosystem service of increasing food web complexity, which may promote system resilience.

Decadal and seasonal changes in landcover at Padre Island: Implications for the role of the back‐barrier in signaling island state change

AbstractLong‐term and seasonal geomorphological changes at Padre Island, Texas are identified and linked with potential external drivers. Aerial and satellite images from 1950 to 2018, monthly images from 2019 to 2020, and a 2018 LiDAR data set are used to assess long‐term and seasonal geomorphological changes within a 50 km2 area of Padre Island near Port Mansfield, Texas. Trends in landcover are evaluated by mapping and comparing the relative areal coverage of each facies. Vegetated dunes, absent initially, emerged in the fore‐island and expanded into the back‐barrier to cover 14% of the study area. The active vegetation‐free back‐barrier dune field steadily decreased in areal extent from 12% to 6% as vegetation spread. Nebkha dune coverage fluctuated between 4% and 7%. Expansive microbial mats colonized the wind tidal and deflation flats surrounding the vegetated dunes and back‐barrier dune field giving rise to a remarkably different landscape over the 50‐year period studied. An assessment of external forcing factors identifies increased rates of relative sea level rise and decreased sediment influx as the most likely primary factors driving the geomorphological changes. These changes have induced a widespread shift toward stabilization of island sediments by vegetation and microbial mats, which in turn has starved the back‐barrier of sediments resulting in low rates of accretion and increased flooding. These findings highlight the sensitivity of the back‐barrier and, in particular, the dune facies to changes in sea level and sediment supply, and show that microbial mats are effective at stabilizing island sediments and may be harbingers to barrier island response to rising sea level. As shown in this study, long‐term monitoring of geomorphic facies changes and topography can detect important shifts in the island state that can be used to inform decision making for these sensitive coastal landscapes.

Sand supply and dune grass species density affect foredune shape along the US Central Atlantic Coast

AbstractCoastal foredunes form via biophysical feedbacks between sand accretion and burial‐tolerant vegetation and can protect coastlines from hazards such as extreme storms and sea level rise. Predicting how coastal dunes, and the services they provide, will change in the future requires an understanding of the relative roles of the physical and ecological processes that shape their structure and function. Here we assess the relative roles of sand supply, beach morphology, and vegetation in determining foredune morphology, and its change, along a 300‐km stretch of the US Central Atlantic coast. In particular, we used the spatial variability inherent in beaches and dunes of this region to determine the relative importance of shoreline change rate (SCR; a proxy for sand supply to the beach), beach morphology, and grass density of four widespread dune grasses (Uniola paniculata, Ammophila breviligulata, Panicum amarum, and Spartina patens) to foredune morphology metrics (height, width, and aspect ratio) along the North Carolina Outer Banks barrier islands. Foredune morphology and change metrics are correlated with three main factors: multidecadal SCR (1997–2016), beach slope, and dune grass density and species identity. Multidecadal SCR and beach width explained the most variation in, and were positively correlated with, foredune height and width, and were negatively correlated with foredune aspect ratio (height divided by width). In addition, grass density and changes in grass density contributed significantly to foredune morphology change. We found a positive relationship between change in A. breviligulata density and foredune width, which aligns with previous studies on the US Atlantic and Pacific Northwest coasts. Our results demonstrate the interactive roles of beach sand supply and dune grass functional morphology in dune building processes on highly vulnerable coastlines.

Wave Enhanced Overtides in an Idealized Tidal Inlet System

AbstractTidal water levels and currents in the shallow water environments of the inner shelf are subject to nonlinear interactions that produce higher frequency harmonics known as overtides, which contribute to the residual transport of scalars. The primary hydrodynamic overtide generating mechanisms (advection, nonlinear continuity and bottom friction) are well known. Yet, other mechanisms may exist in coupled systems characterized by wind waves and barotropic tides. This work uses process‐oriented coupled tides‐waves numerical simulations of an idealized barrier beach domain to study the effect of varying tidal range and wave conditions (height, period, direction) to investigate new mechanisms of overtide generation. Harmonic analysis of results from 92 simulations indicates that an increase in wave height amplifies overtide current velocities in both the alongshore and cross‐shore directions, while changes in wave period and wave direction have a lesser effect. A maximum increase of ∼140% in overtide current velocity magnitudes was observed in domain‐wide averages from a tides only to a coupled tides‐waves simulation. Decomposition of the depth‐averaged momentum balance of the tides only and tides‐waves simulations identify bottom stress, pressure gradient, and bottom wave streaming enhancing overtide generation. Accelerations from wave‐enhanced pressure gradients and bottom wave streaming produce a shoreward bottom current and an offshore directed return flow that persist throughout a semidiurnal tidal cycle, interacting with tidal currents to enhance asymmetries between flood and ebb.

Beach-dune development prior to a shoal attachment: A case study on Texel Island (NL)

Shorelines bordering ebb deltas are often subject to deformation by the approach and attachment of ebb-tidal shoals. Although this is a common behaviour, little attention has been paid to the link between shoal migration and the multi-annual development of the adjacent beach-dune system. This study aims to understand beach-dune systems' behaviour during the approach phase of an ebb-tidal shoal attachment event. Topographic and bathymetric data of the barrier island of Texel (NL) was used to calculate shoreline position, beach and dune volume, dunefoot position, and shoal displacement rates. Two classical beach-dune interaction models were used to understand the observed behaviour: the surfzone-beach-dune model and the sediment budget model. The analysis revealed how a larger bank on the land-facing side of the ebb delta split into two smaller shoals with different morphological behaviours. One of the shoals (S1) moved consistently landwards, recently attaching the shore, whereas the second shoal (S2) is still evolving and presents a milder landward movement than S1. In parallel to the landward movement of S1, the adjacent coastline was subject to erosion, partially counterbalanced by nourishments. However, despite the erosion, dunes are growing in volume, suggesting a net positive transfer of sand from the beach to the dunes. In the surfzone-beach-dune model, regular nourishments positively affect beach state by maintaining sufficient beach size for aeolian sediment transport and reducing shoreline erosion. In the budget model, dune volume growth may occur despite a slightly negative beach budget. Framing Texel in the budget model implies that the beach budget before the start of the approach phase is crucial in defining the behaviour of the dune system during this phase. If the shoal approach significantly reduces the beach budget, the system may cross the budget threshold that dune building is possible. Thus, the dune system may evolve to an erosional state, including dune ridge dissection and blowout development. Hence, nourishments have been essential in keeping the current morphological state during the attachment of the shoal, as they restrict the system from crossing the negative morphological threshold. Thus, without the nourishments, beach erosion driven by the shoal might have led to morphological changes in the dune system that could lead to years of a weakened level of protection until foredune recovery after attachment.

Seasonal changes in beach resilience along an urbanized barrier island

Beach width, dune height, and vegetation coverage are key parameters to assess beach resistance and resilience to storms. However, coastal development often causes beach ecosystem degradation due to poor coastal management. We propose a Coastal Resilience Index from Remote Sensors (CRIfRS) for urbanized coasts based on aerial photogrammetry. The study area, located along a 7.8 km stretch of coast on a barrier island, is characterized by persistent alongshore sediment transport and the presence of coastal structures and beach-front houses. Contrary to previous studies, we focus on anthropogenic perturbations (coastal urbanization and coastal structures), instead of hydrodynamic conditions (storms), since erosion in this region is mainly associated with alongshore sediment transport gradients induced by coastal structures. Thus, the CRIfRS is based on the relation of three indicators that affect the beach functionality for coastal protection: beach width, coastal structure influence area, and vegetation coverage. The CRIfRS was divided into five categories: Very Low resilience (VL), Low resilience (L), Medium resilience (M), High resilience (H), and Very High resilience (VH). The CRIfRS presented an important spatial and temporal variability due to changing environmental conditions and the deployment of new coastal structures. For the study period, the percentage of the coast within the VL and L resilience classification increased, whereas the percentage of the coast classified as M, H, and VH resilience decreased. During the winter storm season, the resilience increased mainly due to the cross-shore transport whilst during mean wave conditions (i.e., sea-breeze conditions) the long-shore transport becomes more persistent and thus the coastal structures play an important role interrupting the sediment flux. Additionally, the CRIfRS trajectory shows an overall increase of the L resilience and an overall decrease of the H resilience values. This study highlights the important role of anthropogenic perturbations on the assessment of coastal resilience for highly urbanized coasts. The CRIfRS can help to improve the coastal management by assessing the coastal protection capability of beaches considering both natural and anthropogenic factors.

Enhanced susceptibility to oiling may limit denitrification recovery in marshes subjected to woody encroachment

Coastal salt marshes provide valuable ecosystem services but are subjected to multiple concomitant stressors that may impact their ability to provide those services. Global climate change has led to the poleward expansion of mangroves into salt marshes on each continent where mangroves and marshes co-occur. In the northern Gulf of Mexico, warming winter temperatures have resulted in the expansion of Avicennia germinans (black mangrove) into forb-dominated salt marshes, resulting in a shift in ecosystem structure that can impact the ecosystem services marshes provide, including biogeochemical processes such as nitrogen removal. There have been limited studies addressing how mangrove expansion impacts nitrogen removal rates in salt marshes, but it is possible that mangroves enhance microbial nitrogen removal capacity through more efficient oxygen translocation to sediments. However, mangroves are more sensitive to oiling (such as occurred during the 2010 Deepwater Horizon spill) than marsh plants, such as Spartina alterniflora, which have a higher turnover. Thus, even if they enhance nitrogen removal, if they cannot withstand disturbances such as oiling, there still may be a loss of function associated with woody encroachment. We conducted a field study to assess the impact of woody encroachment in mediating biogeochemical recovery 7 to 8 years after the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. We collected sediments from S. alterniflora- and A. germinans-dominated plots in the Chandeleur Islands (LA, United States), a chain of barrier islands in the northern Gulf of Mexico subjected to a range of oiling following the spill. We compared nitrate reduction rates (denitrification and dissimilatory nitrate reduction to ammonium), microbial community composition, and denitrifier marker gene abundance at sites subjected to light and moderate oiling using a combination of isotope pairing on sediment slurries, 16S sequencing, and qPCR. We predicted that overall, denitrification rates and microbial functional capacity would be enhanced in mangrove-dominated sediments. We also predicted that these enhancements would be diminished at the more intensely oiled site due to the higher susceptibility of A. germinans to oiling. Denitrification potential rates were higher in mangrove sediments at the lightly oiled site, whereas dissimilatory nitrate reduction to ammonium potential rates were higher in marsh sediments. Indicator analysis of 16S rRNA data selected putative sulfur cycling taxa as indicators of marsh sediments, suggesting that changes in oxygen availability associated with encroachment may be driving the differences in process rates. There was no difference in process rates between plant types at the moderately oiled site, where heavily weathered oil residue was still present. Sediment nutrient stocks were lower in moderately oiled mangrove plots than in lightly oiled mangrove plots, suggesting that sediment fertility recovery following the spill may have been slower in the mangroves, contributing to a change in ecosystem function. This study shows that woody encroachment has the potential to impact both the biogeochemical services that marshes provide and their response to and recovery from disturbances.

Metaheuristic-based isolated microgrid sizing and uncertainty quantification considering EVs as shiftable loads

Isolated microgrids are increasingly recognised as an effective platform for the optimal coordination of integrated distributed energy resources – including renewable energy generation and storage technologies – for remote, island, and peripheral communities. However, they require advanced off-grid microgrid capacity planning optimisation models to achieve the globally optimum sizing results. In this context, while considerable attention has been devoted to a range of off-grid microgrid sizing methods, leveraging the potential of metaheuristic optimisation algorithms is less well-explored. Furthermore, there is a general lack of electrified transportation interventions considered during long-term grid-independent microgrid planning phases. In response, this paper introduces a novel metaheuristic-based strategic off-grid microgrid capacity planning optimisation model that is applicable to associated integrated energy and e-mobility resource planning problems. To test the effectiveness of the proposed model, three independent microgrid development projects have been considered for three communities residing on Aotea–Great Barrier Island in Aotearoa–New Zealand. The sites of interest have different demand profiles and renewable energy potentials – with consequent changes in the technologies considered in the associate candidate pools. Moreover, to generate key insights into the impact of the forecast uncertainty of different variables on the costing and configuration of the associated microgrids, a number of scenario analyses have been performed. In addition, the numeric simulation results and the associated capital budgeting analyses have demonstrated the economic viability of the project proposals formulated based on the proposed off-grid microgrid planning method, especially with controlling the charging of electric vehicles. Particularly, the potential of the artificial hummingbird algorithm in reducing the total discounted costs of off-grid microgrids by at least ∼6% has been shown. Also, the importance of electric vehicle charging coordination in reducing the off-grid microgrid costs (by at least ∼9%) has been substantiated.

Natural and nature based features for environmental enhancement and coastal storm risk management: a case study on Marco Island, Florida, United States

Natural and Nature-Based systems provide an opportunity for adaptive response to Coastal Storm Risk Management and Sea Level Rise. The Tigertail Lagoon/Sand Dollar Island Restoration on Marco Island, Florida, presents a case study designed to maintain and enhance an existing coastal barrier system consisting of a 3-km-long sand spit and tidal lagoon ecosystem that is otherwise evolving toward closure. The case study is part of a nature-based adaptive management plan to restore and stabilize the sandspit and tidal lagoon through cyclic use of sediment within the system. This approach seeks to preserve existing protective habitats and landforms that also serve as natural coastal barriers to protect upland development. Design of the restoration plan considers the functions of a wildlife nature preserve and evolution of complex tidal inlet morphologic features bordered by a heavily developed barrier Island. The design aims to restore and enhance a sandspit degraded by a sequence of storms since Major Hurricane Irma impacted Southwest Florida in 2017 and improve the existing deteriorated habitat by enhancing tidal exchange through restoration of the lagoon flow channel. Total wetland area will be increased by relocating the sand spit seaward of its present location to where it was located in approximately 2017. The reconstructed beach berm will provide enhanced resiliency to high frequency weather events. Sediment will be sourced from the existing sand spit and an innovative sand trap that will maintain the lagoon entrance open while providing beneficial re-use for excess sediment that continues to accumulate at the end of the spit. Components of the project were analyzed using existing engineering models and methods such as the Coastal Modeling System (CMS) and XBeach. Enhancing and preserving this barrier island feature and productive ecosystem provides an example of the enhanced coastal resiliency provided by natural and nature-based systems that are adaptable and responsive to sea level rise and ongoing coastal processes.

Coastal Land Use Management Methodologies under Pressure from Climate Change and Population Growth

Throughout history, humans living in the coastal area constantly adapt to the natural environment and create a changing environment. The rapid coastal development occurred in the mid-19th century and peaks in the mid-20th century, which was a common process in most industrialized areas. With increasing population growth and urban sprawl, many coastal lowlands are unprecedently vulnerable to climate change impacts such as sea level rise, increasing extreme storm events, and coastal flooding. Under the influence of urban revitalization and conservation, the landward shoreline movement accelerated and coastal land shrank, accompanied by community retreat. This research focuses on the importance of incorporating an understanding of the changing coastal land-ocean interaction into adaptive management strategies by illustrating the relationship of land use change, social-economic development, and climate change. Typical coastal changes in Connecticut were selected: New Haven Harbor reflects a dramatic seaward land accretion under industrial and transportation development, New London downtown waterfront reveals a trend of building retreat under industrial and commercial transformation and coastal hazard, New London Ocean Beach indicates how overdeveloped coastal low-lying community fully retreat after a natural disaster, and Jordan Cove barrier island shows a highly dynamic coastal land change and proactive management strategy. The results reveal that to cope with a constantly changing shoreline and the challenges of climate change, a resilient management process must incorporate a cycle of learning, experimenting, and creating with the goal of developing new solutions that are able to deal with our ever-changing environment.

Modeling the spatial and temporal dynamics of land‐based polar bear denning in Alaska

AbstractAlthough polar bears (Ursus maritimus) of the Southern Beaufort Sea (SBS) subpopulation have commonly created maternal dens on sea ice in the past, maternal dens on land have become increasingly prevalent as sea ice declines. This trend creates conditions for increased human–bear interactions associated with local communities and industrial activity. Maternal denning is a vulnerable period in the polar bear life cycle, and den disturbance could lead to den abandonment, cub mortality, and negative population impacts. We used published long‐term data to parameterize a Bayesian hierarchical model of annual land den abundance during 2000–2015, in 4 regions of northern Alaska, USA, with current or potential future oil and gas activity. We also estimated long‐term (1982–2015) shifts in the spatial distribution of land dens within and among regions using kernel density estimation and assessed the influence of local and regional sea ice and snow conditions on den site selection using a random forest resource selection function. Our objectives were to quantify current den distribution and abundance, test for distributional shifts over time, and investigate if those shifts could be attributed to environmental variables related to den habitat. We estimated that between 2000 and 2015, the SBS contained a median 123 dens in a typical year, of which 68 occurred on land. The region between the Colville and Canning rivers, where most current oil and gas activity occurred, also contained the largest fraction of land dens. Overall, land dens were disproportionately concentrated on barrier islands and on land within 30 km of the coast. The probability of dens occurring on land varied from 1982–1999 to 2000–2015 in all regions, and the overall distribution of land dens shifted west between those periods. This regional‐scale change in den distribution was predictable based on spatial and temporal heterogeneity in snow and sea ice conditions within 50 km of individual den locations. Land denning is likely to become increasingly common with continued sea ice loss, and our results and modeling framework could be used to design additional mitigation strategies for reducing the risk of incidental take due to den disturbance.

Importance of Pre-Storm Morphological Factors in Determination of Coastal Highway Vulnerability

This work considers a database of pre-storm morphological factors and documented impacts along a coastal roadway. Impacts from seven storms, including sand overwash and pavement damage, were documented via aerial photography. Pre-storm topography was examined to parameterize the pre-storm morphological factors likely to control whether stormwater levels and waves impact the road. Two machine learning techniques, K-nearest neighbors (KNN) and ensemble of decision trees (EDT), were employed to identify the most critical pre-storm morphological factors in determining the road vulnerability, expressed as a binary variable to impact storms. Pre-processing analysis was conducted with a correlation analysis of the predictors’ data set and feature selection subroutine for the KNN classifier. The EDTs were built directly from the data set, and feature importance estimates were reported for all storm events. Both classifiers report the distances from roadway edge-of-pavement to the dune toe and ocean as the most important predictors of most storms. For storms approaching from the bayside, the width of the barrier island was the second most important factor. Other factors of importance included elevation of the dune toe, distance from the edge of pavement to the ocean shoreline, shoreline orientation (relative to predominant wave angle), and beach slope. Compared to previously reported optimization techniques, both machine learning methods improved using pre-storm morphological data to classify highway vulnerability based on storm impacts.

Occurrence mode of Holocene tsunami overwash controlled by the geomorphic development along the eastern Nankai Trough, central Japan

Re-analysis of the lithological, paleontological, and geochemical data of three lagoonal sediment cores reveal the tsunami overwash history from 8000 to 6500 cal BP along the northern Suruga Bay coast, facing the eastern Nankai Trough. The coring sites are located in a transcect 0.8, 1.5, and 1.7 km inland, respectively, from the coastline at the time the overwash events occurred. The washover sand beds are distinguished from the lagoonal muds by the presence of quartz and mica, which are abundant on the outer (marine) side of the lagoon, as well as marine shell fossils. The increased C/S ratio often associated with sand beds, reflects input of open seawater to the reductive lagoon, and supports this interpretation. A maximum of eight tsunami deposits were identified between ∼7800 and 6500 cal BP, many of which can be correlated between the three cores. The magnitude of tsunami overwash implied by the thickness and grain size of tsunami deposits, and increase of C/S ratio following their deposition is relatively large at ∼7500-7200 cal BP during the post-glacial sea level rise and decreases with time during the subsequent high sea level stand. This occurrence mode (timing and scale of formation) of tsunami washover is explained by temporal changes in coastal geomorphology, rather than differences in the magnitude of individual tsunamis. Around 7500-7200 cal BP, sea level rise equilibrated with or exceeded the growth of the bay mouth barrier, and tsunamis could easily cross the small barrier and enter the lagoon, leaving behind thick and coarse-grained deposits. As the barrier becomes larger during the subsequent sea-level highstand, only the highest-amplitude waves exceeded the height of the barrier. By ∼6500 years ago, the barrier was high enough to prevent tsunamis from entering the lagoon. Similarly, the occurrence mode of tsunami deposits reported along the coast of Suruga Bay and Enshu-nada over the past 6000 years can be explained in relation to the growth of coastal barriers.

Responses of Coastal Ecosystems to Climate Change: Insights from Long-Term Ecological Research

abstract Coastal ecosystems play a disproportionately large role in society, and climate change is altering their ecological structure and function, as well as their highly valued goods and services. In the present article, we review the results from decade-scale research on coastal ecosystems shaped by foundation species (e.g., coral reefs, kelp forests, coastal marshes, seagrass meadows, mangrove forests, barrier islands) to show how climate change is altering their ecological attributes and services. We demonstrate the value of site-based, long-term studies for quantifying the resilience of coastal systems to climate forcing, identifying thresholds that cause shifts in ecological state, and investigating the capacity of coastal ecosystems to adapt to climate change and the biological mechanisms that underlie it. We draw extensively from research conducted at coastal ecosystems studied by the US Long Term Ecological Research Network, where long-term, spatially extensive observational data are coupled with shorter-term mechanistic studies to understand the ecological consequences of climate change.

On the combined effects of surface heat and momentum fluxes on continental shelf baroclinic instability

Idealized numerical experiments are used to study the effect of surface warming on wind-driven baroclinic instability over the continental shelf, i.e. where a coastal barrier and a sloping bottom are present. When winds, which are applied only for an initial period, are downwelling favorable, past results have shown that the primary instability occurs near the top of the bottom boundary layer, and so it is not surprising that sustained surface heating has little effect on instabilities in this case. When winds are upwelling favorable, the cold, relatively homogenous waters inshore of the upwelling front are warmed roughly uniformly, decreasing the density difference between upwelled and ambient waters. Thus, in this case, the ensuing Eddy Kinetic Energy is decreased (relative to the case with no heating) by up to more than 60% in the examples given. In addition, instability in the presence of combined upwelling favorable alongshore winds and modest surface cooling is also treated. Scalings are developed dealing these processes and are tested against model results.