World Bank Development Research Articles

Impact of a free trade agreement on unemployment and productivity growth in Nigeria

This research investigates the impact of a free trade agreement on unemployment and productivity growth in Nigeria over the period 1981–2019. Data was collected from the World Bank Development Indicators (WDI) online database as of 2020. The study employed various analytical methods, including unit root tests, autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bound tests, error correction models (ECM), and cumulative sum (CUSUM) and cumulative sum of squares (CUSUMSQ) tests to assess data stability. The ARDL bound test statistics (F-statistics) of 4.26914 and 7.680624 exceeded the critical values for both I(0) and I(1) bounds, indicating a meaningful relationship between the variables. In the long run, physical capital, human capital development, and economic growth were found to have a negative impact on unemployment, with statistical significance. Additionally, sectoral productivity growth negatively influenced aggregate productivity growth. The error correction model (ECM) indicated a weak speed of adjustment, suggesting that the disequilibrium takes around 13% of the time to return to equilibrium annually. Based on these findings, the study recommends the implementation of safeguards to protect vulnerable industries, particularly in manufacturing and agriculture. Additionally, the government should focus on fostering human capital development by ensuring the availability of suitable support measures.

Challenges and barriers for gender-inclusive public transport policies and practice in Delhi, India

The importance of gender mainstreaming in transport services has been brought to focus by leading organisations such as the World Bank and Asian Development Bank. Commonly, women in South and Southeast Asian countries struggle with a public transport system that is not designed for them. National policy makers from these countries typically pick and choose when to follow international guidelines. The present study explores the challenges and barriers for implementation of international guidelines and standards on gender when designing inclusive public transport systems. Semi-structured interviews were undertaken with leading national policymakers and transport practitioners to gain an in-depth understanding of current practices in Delhi, India. Discussions with policymakers revealed a significant lack of willingness to consider women as a distinct user group, largely due to a male-dominated sector. Women, when rarely considered, are often categorized within the vulnerable user group. This makes any gender-specific travel requirements absent from policies and guidelines for transport practitioners to implement. Without any adequate gender-inclusive policies and government guidelines, practitioners are hamstringed into designing and implementing services which negates women’s travel needs. Interviews with transport practitioners also revealed major barriers to include funding constraints and poor national data resources. The study concludes with critical gaps in the pipeline from international to national to transport practitioners which prevents gender-specific travel needs from being met for women riding public transport.

Bank performance and financial stability during the COVID-19 pandemic: lessons from the MENA region

PurposeThis study investigates the role of market concentration and efficiency in banking system stability during the COVID-19 pandemic. We empirically test the hypothesis that market concentration and efficiency are significant determinants of bank performance and stability during the time of crises, using a sample of 575 banks in 20 countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA).Design/methodology/approachThe main sources of bank data are the BankScope and BankFocus (Bureau van Dijk) databases, World Bank development indicators, and official websites of banks in MENA countries. This study combined descriptive and analytical approaches. We utilize a panel dataset and adopt panel data econometric techniques such as fixed/random effects and the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimator.FindingsThe results reveal that market concentration negatively affects bank profitability, whereas improved efficiency further enhances bank performance and contributes to the banking sector’s overall stability. Furthermore, our analysis indicates that during the COVID-19 pandemic, bank stability strongly depended on the level of market concentration, but not on bank efficiency. However, more efficient banks are more profitable and stable if the banking institutions are Islamic. Similarly, Islamic banks with the same level of efficiency demonstrated better overall financial performance during the pandemic than their conventional peers did.Research limitations/implicationsThe main limitation is related to the period of COVID-19 pandemic that was covered in this paper (2020–2021). Therefore, further investigation of the COVID-19 effects on bank profitability and risk will require an extended period of the pandemic crisis, including 2022.Practical implicationsThis study provides information that will enable bank managers and policymakers in MENA countries to assess the growing impact of market concentration and efficiency on the banking sector stability. It also helps them in formulating suitable strategies to mitigate the adverse consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. Our recommendations are useful guides for policymakers and regulators in countries where Islamic and conventional banking systems co-exist and compete, based on different business models and risk management practices.Originality/valueThe authors contribute to the banking stability literature by investigating the role of market concentration and efficiency as the main determinants of bank performance and stability during the COVID-19 pandemic. This study is the first to analyze banking sector stability in the MENA region, using both individual and risk-adjusted aggregated performance measures.

Legal Systems, Property Rights, and Financial Development in Sub-Saharan Africa

The study aims to determine the effect of legal systems and property rights enforcement on developing financial markets, institutions, and overall financial development in Sub-Saharan Africa. Data for this study were extracted from the Financial Development Index of the World Bank Global financial database, the Economic Freedom database of the Fraiser Institute, and the World Bank Development Indicators database covering 41 Sub-Saharan African countries from 2000 to 2020. The models were estimated using the System GMM and the SURE model as robustness checks to address cross-equation correlations and linkages between financial markets and institutions. Results showed that legal systems and property rights enforcement have an effect on the growth of financial markets, institutions, and overall financial development, regardless of the measure of financial development used. Moreover, trade and GDP positively affect financial development and financial markets, while stringent regulatory trade barriers have a negative effect. The need for governments to prioritize strengthening legal systems and ensuring the enforcement of property rights protection to create a predictable and stable environment for businesses and investors is key. Reducing trade barriers and eliminating restrictions that may discourage foreign investment to increase trade volumes and capital inflows into SSA is also important. JEL Classification: F36; G20; G1, G10; K40; P26

Political factors, carbon emissions, and life expectancy in India: Implications for the Sustainable Development Goal 3.

This study examines the nexus among political factors, carbon emissions, and life expectancy between 1990 and 2020 in India. Data for this study was extracted from the World Bank Development indicators, after which it was subjected to econometrics analysis. The results showed that on averages, between 1990 and 2020, India experienced a life expectancy around 65 years. Fossil fuel energy consumption represents a small proportion of total energy consumption in India. However, carbon emissions and life expectancy have a positive and significant relationship. Fossil fuel usage and life expectancy possess a significantly positive relationship (FFEC = 0.044128, P-value = 0.0023) Moreover, government effectiveness and life expectancy have a significant direct relationship. Political stability and life expectancy have a significant negative relationship in the country. We conclude that policymakers in India should ensure that carbon emissions and fossil fuel usage in India do not pose a threat to life expectancy. Efforts should be put in place by policymakers in India to increase life expectancy , a strategic component of SDG 3- good health and well being for all at all ages, by ensuring stable political climate, good governance and efficient health enhanced public policies.

The effects of the fourth industrial revolution on employment in South Africa: Variance decomposition analysis

This study investigates the effect of the fourth industrial revolution on levels of employment in South Africa. The fourth industrial revolution is proxied by ICT development with the components of mobile telephony, fixed-line telephony and internet penetration. The data used in this study were obtained from the World Bank's World Development Indicator database spanning from 1980 to 2019, while the labour market data was obtained from Statistics South Africa for the same time period. The study employed the Johansen Cointegration test and variance decomposition techniques to determine existence of long run equilibrium and possible shocks impact respectively. The results indicated that there exists a long run relationship between employment levels and the hypothesised determinants. The ICT revealed a positive relationship with employment in both the short and long run which is an indication of importance of fourth industrial revolution to employment in modern society. Policy recommendation were provided for the South African policy-makers in line with further deployment of ICT tools that promote employment.

Impact of Exchange Rate on Economic Growth: Evidence from Nigeria

The effect of the exchange rate on GDP growth in Nigeria from 1985–2021, according to this analysis. The World Bank's World Development Indicator (WDI) and the Central Bank of Nigeria's (CBN) Statistical Bulletin were used as secondary sources of data. The real exchange rate served as a stand-in for the actual exchange rate, while real gross domestic product was used to gauge economic growth. We used the Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test to find out how integrated the series was. The bound test was used to test for cointegration. The bound test found that the exchange rate and economic growth are related in the long term. This research used the autoregressive distributed lag technique to estimate the short- and long-term effects of the exchange rate on GDP growth. The ARDL analysis shows that there is a weak negative correlation between the exchange rate and GDP growth. According to the research, trade openness has a small but favorable effect on GDP growth. Furthermore, the research indicated that foreign exchange reserves significantly and positively impacted economic development. There was also a negative and statistically significant relationship between interest rates and GDP growth. The analysis found that the exchange rate did not have a significant role in determining Nigeria's economic development. Given the importance of a stable and predictable exchange rate in boosting economic development, the research suggests that monetary authorities implement a policy primarily aimed at stabilizing exchange rates.

The Influence of Intellectual Property Rights (IPR) on Asean+5’s International Trade (IT)

In accordance with the ASEAN IPR Action Plan 2016-2025, this study explores the connections and causality of Intellectual Property Rights (IPR) on international trade (IT) of ASEAN+5 countries represented by Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines, Singapore, and Indonesia. According to this, international trade is measured in terms of trade (as a percentage of GDP). IPR is measured by patent applications filed by residents, patent applications filed by non-residents, industrial design applications filed by residents, and industrial design applications filed by non-residents. Along with IPR, the effect of government effectiveness (GE) on IT is also investigated. Foreign direct investment (FDI) and inflation are also utilized as control variables. This study adopts new growth theory as to further explain the variables involved. All ASEAN+5 data for the individual variables were derived from the World Bank Development database, and the panel dataset was investigated using the PFGLS estimator and Dumitrescu-Hurlin test for over 21-years period (2000-2020). The findings of this study revealed a strong effect between IPR and IT as well as a unidirectional relationship between IPR (except industrial design application, filed by residents) and IT for the ASEAN+5 region. The limitation of this study is that it only focused on five ASEAN countries, and the selection of IPR indicators was limited. Nevertheless, this study provides some important insights for policymakers and local merchants to focus and invest more on IPR in order to promote ASEAN's international trade in accordance with global norms.

Effects of gender equality and social costs of failure on early-stage entrepreneurship activity

PurposeIn this study, we question: how do the social costs of failure interact with gendered institutions to affect the early stage entrepreneurship activity? We address this question by employing the institutional theory and a unique dataset of 286,989 entrepreneurs across 35 countries.Design/methodology/approachTo test our hypotheses, we use a multilevel modeling analysis that nests individual entrepreneurs within the countries. To capture individual and country-level variables, we constructed a unique dataset that combines data from the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM), European Flash Barometer (EUFB), World Bank Development Indicator (WDI), World Bank Doing Business Report (WBDB) and World Economic Forum (WEF).FindingsOur analysis confirms that higher levels of the country-level gender equality positively correlate with the early-stage entrepreneurship activity of women. Moreover, we find that this positive relationship is amplified in institutional environments with high social costs of failure, suggesting that societal intolerance for failure can exacerbate the negative effect of gender inequality on the participation of women in entrepreneurship.Research limitations/implicationsOur research contributes to academic interest on the role of legitimacy in women entrepreneurship and is of particular interest to international business scholars, seeking a better understanding of multidimensional construction of institutional frameworks across countries. In this study, we set out to address an important research question: how do the social costs of failure interact with gendered institutions to affect entrepreneurship activity? Our study provides a comprehensive portrait of gendered institutions by including the framework conditions of education, healthcare and political power. We found that in societies with gender equality, the likelihood of individuals engaging in the early-stage entrepreneurship activity is higher and that the positive relationship is strengthened in national environments with high social costs of failure.Practical implicationsOur study findings underscore the need for government policies addressing global gender gaps in economic empowerment. In particular, policies assisting women in obtaining education in high-growth industries like information technology or providing funding to women-dominated industries may foster activity for women seeking to do business in such industries. Such policies connect the early-stage entrepreneurship activities with gender equality concerns and initiatives.Social implicationsRegarding the social costs of failure construct, specifically, prior studies generally focus narrowly on the context of failed entrepreneurs. We cast a wider net on men and women entrepreneurs’ entry decisions (irrespective of prior experience with business failure) and provide new views on the effects of social costs of failure on entrepreneurial ecosystems. We also extend the research on the legitimacy of women as entrepreneurs with the gender equality construct.Originality/valueUnlike previous studies, which often focus on the “3Ms” of market, money and management, our research adopts a more holistic perspective. We recognize that the opportunities and challenges faced by entrepreneurs are shaped not only by individual skills and resources but also by the broader macroenvironment. By incorporating the framework conditions of education, healthcare and political power, alongside the intricate interplay of social costs and norms, our study paints a comprehensive picture of the landscape of female entrepreneurship.

Assessing the Effects of Macroeconomic Variables on Economic Welfare in Ghana

This study employs the Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds approach to investigate the relationship between Real GDP, which serves as an estimator of a nation’s economic performance, and selected macroeconomic variables. Using data from the World Bank Development Indicators spanning the period from 1993 to 2022, our analysis reveals distinct patterns in the interplay between inflation, labour productivity, public consumption expenditure, and real GDP. The results highlight the negative impact of inflation on economic well-being. Conversely, a positive correlation emerges between real GDP and both labour productivity and public consumption expenditure. These findings contribute nuanced insights to the ongoing discourse on the appropriateness of Real GDP. The observed negative influence of inflation on Real GDP underscores the importance of vigilant inflation management for sustained economic stability. On the other hand, the positive association between real GDP and labour productivity, as well as public consumption expenditure, implies potential avenues for fostering economic growth and prosperity. These findings not only enhance our understanding of the dynamic interactions within economic systems, but also challenge conventional perspectives on real GDP as an indicator of economic health. These insights provide valuable considerations for crafting effective policies that go beyond GDP figures to ensure holistic and sustainable national economic well-being.

Impact of Health Investment on Economic Development in Nigeria

This study examined the impact of health investment on economic development in Nigeria. Using secondary data sourced from Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletins and World Bank development indicators, World Bank Database for the period of 1981- 2020. It applied Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Philips-Perron (PP) tests for unit root which indicated that all the variables were stationary at first difference except gross fixed capital formation at level. The mixed order of the unit root tests necessitated the adoption of Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds Cointegration technique. The study submitted that a strong evidence of cointegration among the variables exist. It prove that health investment variables (recurrent and capital health investment, public education expenditure, gross fixed capital formation and labour participation rate) have positive impacts on economic development in Nigeria except foreign exchange rate which reveals negative impact. The result of Pairwise Granger causality test indicated that there were uni-directional and bidirectional causality among health investment variables and economic development in Nigeria. Therefore, it concluded that health investment variables have positive and significant impacts on economic development in Nigeria except exchange rate. Moreover, this study recommended that health policy should be made by government to increase the budgetary allocation to health sector particularly on recurrent and capital public health investment, improve quality of education through statutory allocation to education sector, provide exchange rate policy that will encourage investment in human capital by individuals and private sector. Finally, the government should expand institutional capacity to produce qualified manpower, improve personnel salaries, wages and working conditions in health and education sectors

Impact of Domestic Investment on Economic Growth in Nigeria

This study investigated the impact of domestic investment on economic growth in Nigeria from the period 1990 to 2022. The dimensions that were used to proxy the independent variable are domestic investment, total exports, interest rate and inflation while real gross domestic product was used to proxy economic growth which is the dependent variable. Data used were sourced from secondary sources which includes; World Bank development indicators for various years and the Central Bank of Nigeria annual statistical bulletin. The Statistical Software employed to analyse the data was the eviews9. The results of the Unit root test show that domestic investment, total exports, interest rate and real gross domestic variables evaluated are all stationary after first difference- I(1)- while inflation rate was stationary at level- I(0)-. The Autoregressive distributed lag was used to analyze data. The results of the Autoregressive distributed lag estimates reveal that in both the long run and short run, domestic investment, total exports, coefficients have positive impact on real gross domestic product in Nigeria and both are also statistically significant at five percent level of significance in the long-run in Nigeria. Since it was found that increase domestic investment and total exports bring about economic growth, the study therefore, recommends amongst others that appropriate trade policies in favour of export expansion should be encouraged. The federal government of Nigeria should make concerted effort towards export promotion policy by encouraging domestic investors to go into more production. In order to achieve this, there is need for the government to reduce interest rate and tax rate.

Effect of public health expenditure on maternal mortality ratio in the West African Economic and Monetary Union

IntroductionMaternal mortality in West African Economic and Monetary Union countries (WAEMU) is the highest compared with other regions in the world. The majority of health care sources in WAEMU are private and largely involve out-of-pocket expenditures, which may prevent healthcare access. Maternal mortality is an important indicator of the level of attention given to mothers before, during and after childbirth and thus of a system’s overall coherence and capacity for anticipation. Therefore, the objective of this study is to analyze the effects of public health expenditure on maternal mortality in WAEMU.MethodsThe study used panel data from the World Bank Development Indicators (WDI) from 1996 to 2018 covering 7 countries in the West African Economic and Monetary Union. The two-step least squares (2SLS) on health demand function was used to test the effect of public health expenditure on maternal mortality.ResultsPublic health care spending showed a significant negative association with maternal mortality. However, private health expenditure was positively associated with maternal mortality.ConclusionPublic health care expenditure remains a crucial component of reducing maternal mortality. In this region, the authorities need to increase public health spending to build more health centers and improve the equipment of existing infrastructures. Additionally, it is important to reduce the financial barriers for pregnant women. To this end, the operationalization of universal health insurance could help reduce these financial barriers by reducing direct household payments.

Socio-Economic Infrastructure and Standard of Living in Nigeria

This study investigated the effect of socio-economic infrastructure on the standard of living in Nigeria for the period 1981–2021. The study used per capita income as a proxy for standard of living, while investments in health, education, telecommunications, and electric power supply were used as infrastructure. The exchange rate entered the model as a control variable. Annual time series data were obtained from secondary sources including the CBN annual statistical bulletin, and World Bank development indicators. The Eview10 Statistical Software was employed to analyze the data empirically. Due to the stationarity condition of the time series data, the study adopted the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to ascertain its objectives. The study revealed that, in the short run, the coefficient of electric power supply has a positive effect on standard of living and is significant, while in the long run, the coefficient of telecommunication infrastructure has a positive influence on standard of living and is significant. The study concludes that the place of power supply and communication cannot be undermined as Nigeria plans for sustainable economic growth and development. Therefore, it was recommended that there be a deliberate attempt to improve the quality of health care and education. Secondly, the federal government should see the provision of electric power and the reduction in airtime and internet data as the main drivers of the standard of living in Nigeria.

Monetary policies and economic management: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa

Purpose: The objective of this paper is to empirically analyze the application of monetary policies for economic management in Sub-Saharan African countries. The study used time series data from two African countries, specifically Kenya and Rwanda to examine the effect of broad money on the Gross Domestic Product growth rate. Research methodology: The study relied on secondary data; obtained from the World Bank Development Indicators database. The study analyzed the data using both descriptive and inferential statistical techniques. The hypothesis was tested using the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) technique. The data were checked for normality and subjected to Unit Root tests using the Dickey-Fuller, Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Phillips-Perron text prior to further analysis. Results: The results confirmed the stationarity of the data. The descriptive statistics showed that all variables were normally distributed. The OLS result showed that broad money growth had a positive statistically significant effect on the GDP growth rate of both countries. Limitations: The study focused on two sub-Saharan African countries. Contribution: This study explicates the fact that in order to have a robust financial system, which eventually results in sustainable economic development, solid monetary policies must be maintained. Practical Implication: The implication of this study is the identification of how responsible, long-term fiscal and budgetary stance encourages economic growth. Novelty: The study focuses on the application of monetary policies in the economic management of Sub-Saharan African countries; with a particular emphasis on Kenya and Rwanda. These two countries have recorded remarkable growth in Sub-Saharan Africa compared to other countries.

Root and Tuber Crop Market System in Nigeria Macroeconomic Determinants

Root and tuber crops are food security crop and thus have wide market preference and value in many economies. However, they are constrained by a convergence of external factors that impact on their production, marketing and export potential. The study opened conversations on the market system of root and tuber crops and examined macroeconomic variables that influence Nigeria market commercialization drive and competitiveness in both regional and international trade, using cross sectional data from 1960 to 2016 sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) statistical bulletin, Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) database and World Bank Development indicators. Analytically, the study employed econometric tools such as unit root tests, trend analysis (i.e. quadratic equation), Generalized Method of Moments, Malmquist productivity index, Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. Findings revealed that macroeconomic variables of exports, imports, and inflation, exchange rate, tariff, price and world exports had long-run and short-run impacts on the exports of root and tuber crops. The study recommends market-oriented strategy by caution against protectionist led interventions such as outright ban on importation, as they impact negatively on market behaviour; rather advocated for effective policing of border to check smuggling, also improvement in policies that improve production to check price instability, which characterize root and tuber crop marketing in Nigeria. There is need for effective regulation and policies that protect risk and guarantee returns in the supply chain of root and tuber crops so that supply-chain actors can benefit substantially from international trade.

The Economic Impact of Insecurity and Terrorism on the Nigerian Economy

This study examines the economic impact of insecurity and terrorism on the Nigerian economy from the period 1990-2022. One of the major challenges that has confronted Nigeria as a nation in recent times is that of insecurity and terrorism. The villainous activities of Bandits, unknown gunmen, Niger Delta militant, Boko Haram, and Fulani herdsmen, had been responsible largely for the loss of lives and properties in Nigeria. Some of their dastard and iniquitous activities include kidnapping especially school children, raping, armed robbery, ritual killings, suicide bomb attacks, sporadic and indiscriminate shooting of unarmed and innocent citizens, burning of police stations, churches, mosques, murder and destruction of oil properties. Annual time series data on our targeted variables were obtained from secondary sources including the Central Bank of Nigeria annual statistical bulletin and World Bank development indicators for various years. The Eview9 Statistical Software was employed to analyze the data empirically. The Unit root test was also used to test the stationarity of data. The data were analyzed using the Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL). The results of the ARDL estimates reveal that in the long run, terrorism coefficient has negative economic impact on gross domestic product (economic growth) in Nigeria and it was also found to be statistically significant. Unemployment rate was also statistically significant at five percent and also has negative economic influence on GDP in the short run. The study recommends amongst others that the Nigerian government should apply any reasonable strategy possible to return peace to the country, in other to accelerate the pace of economic growth and development. Without doubt, a peaceful Nigeria, where there is the absence of terrorism and insecurity will surely pave way for a meaningful and systematic economic growth and development.

Effect of Foreign Debt on Economic Growth in Nigeria

Nigeria has been on a foreign debt a rising profile overtime, however it is not commensurable with her developmental purposes; hence this study examined the effect of foreign debt on economic growth in Nigeria for the period of 1986-2022. It used time series data sourced from Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletins and World Bank Development Indicators. Using descriptive statistics which shows that the data were normally distributed based on Jacque Bera Statistics and its Probability. It applied Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test which revealed that I (1) and (0) order of integration exist among the studied variables which necessitated the adoption of Autoregressive Distributed Lag model (ARDL). The ARDL F- bounds test reveals that long-run relationship exist among foreign debt, foreign debt servicing, exchange rate, inflation rate and economic growth in Nigeria. Furthermore, long-run result showed that foreign debt and exchange rate have positive effect on economic growth and statistically significant in the model except exchange rate that was insignificant. On the part of short-run dynamics, ECM revealed the speed of adjustment that foreign debt variables and economic growth converged back to equilibrium point in 1year and 8 Months period. It also revealed that foreign debt, exchange rate have positive effect on economic growth in Nigeria and statistically significant. Whereas, foreign debt servicing and inflation rate have negative effect on economic growth and statistically significant in the short-run. Therefore, this study submits that foreign debt has positive and significant effect on economic growth within the period of the study. Finally, the study recommended the following policy options for the government, policy makers, and institutions regulators to formulate fiscal policy that will open ways for alternative sources of finance

An empirical analysis of the dynamics of tax revenue determinants in kenya: A longitudinal approach

The volatility of tax income poses a significant challenge for Sub-Saharan African countries, contributing to erratic public spending and hindering sustainable economic progress. Recent global economic crises have underscored the urgency for these nations to bolster local revenue sources and overcome structural barriers to economic development. This paper examines the factors influencing tax revenue in Kenya over 39 years, from 1984 to 2022. Utilizing data from various sources, including the World Bank's World Development Indicators (WDI), the Kenya Revenue Authority (KRA), the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK), and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the study employs an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to distinguish long-run relationships from short-run dynamics due to the mixed order of integration among variables. The empirical model includes real GDP, agricultural gross value added, general government expenditure, inflation, consumer price, official development assistance, and industrial gross value added as key determinants. The ARDL bounds test confirms a long-term equilibrium. The connection between the variables and the error correction model indicates a relatively quick adjustment process, with around 25% of disequilibrium corrected within a single period. Results from the long-run ARDL estimation suggest that agricultural value added significantly increases tax revenue. In contrast, variables such as GDP and government expenditure do not show a significant long-term effect. In the short run, the lagged tax-to-GDP ratio and GDP significantly impact tax revenue. These findings underscore the importance of agricultural productivity and provide valuable insights for policymakers seeking to enhance tax revenue in Kenya.

Evaluating the Impact of Trade Agreements on Economic Growth and Employment in Sierra Leone

This study uses time series data from the World Bank's World Development Indicators from 2013 to 2023 to examine how trade agreements affect Sierra Leone's economic development and job creation. The results, which highlight the significance of foreign direct investment (FDI) in this connection, show a positive correlation between trade agreements and GDP growth using the OLS and PraisWinsten regression techniques. Although trade agreements generally have a favorable effect, high import levels may have a detrimental effect on GDP growth. These results provide important information for policymakers who want to maximize the economic gains from trade agreements while successfully controlling import levels to promote employment and national growth objectives.