Stabilizing Russia in 1995 : taking a chance on anchoring the rouble. In 1995, the main instrument used for stabilizing the money supply in Russia was the exchange rate. Indeed, from July 1995, the movements of money in Russia were contained within limits of 4,300 and 4,900 roubles to the dollar in the second half of 1995, and then 4,550 and 5,150 roubles to the dollar from the 1st January, 1996. The lack of regulatory financial instruments - inoperative guidance rates, the central Bank's withdrawal of procedures for invitation to tender, a sizeable increase in reserve requirement - has left the exchange rate as one of the only operative instrument of disinflation. This policy is based upon a specific structure of foreign exchange markets which are closely monitored by central Bank : on the one hand, there exist stock exchange markets where the prime exchange rate of the rouble is determined, and, on the other, a mutually agreed interbank market where 80% of transactions are carried out. The rouble "corridor" has up till now been a clear success : it has allowed expectations to be stabilized, and therefore played its part in the steady disinflation which marked the second half of 1995. Observance of the "corridor" took place without any significant change in the level of currency reserves, which have stabilized at 7,5 billion dollars since the month of July. However, at the same time this policy carries with it certain risks, which may in the long run make it unworkable. On the one hand, the actual rise in the value of Russian currency makes exports less competitive. It is true that, at the moment, the trade balance is not adversely affected by the anchoring of the rouble, since it continues to show a healthy surplus. But an overvalued currency may hamper the development of a processing industry (at present in continuous decline) which alone could ensure the Russian economy reliable growth. As for monetary policy, the lack of instruments for monitoring banks liquidity, and the existence of an estimated 20 billion dollars' worth of savings lying idle mean that central Bank's sterilization efforts on the exchange market are doomed to failure. The anchoring of the rouble involves the prioritizing of objectives, with the exchange objective henceforth taking precedence over purely financial objectives. But above all, anchoring the rouble has effected only a conjunctural change in the demand for money. To ensure a return toward the rouble, this policy - admittedly necessary - will not suffice, so long as the shaky and overblown banking system fails to inspire confidence in the depositors. As such, an exchange policy, however stringent and well-intentioned, cannot avoid the necessity for a full-scale structural overhaul of the Russian financial system.
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