Bank Loan Spreads Research Articles

Contagion in Bank Loan Spreads

Contagion in Bank Loan Spreads

Determinants of Spreads on Sovereign Bank Loans: The Role of Credit History

This paper is an empirical investigation into the role of credit history in determining the spread on sovereign bank loans. It employs an error-in-variables approach used in rationalexpectations-macro-econometrics to set up a structural model that links sovereign loan spreads to realized repayment behavior. Unlike the existing empirical literature, its instrumental variables method allows for distinguishing a direct influence of past repayment problems (a “pure reputation” effect) from one that goes through increased default probabilities. Using developing country data from the period 1973-1981 and constructing continuous variables for credit history, we find that past default is a significant determinant of the spread, even after including country fixed effects. Moreover, its reduced-form effect is very similar to its structural form effect, indicating that most of the influence of past repayment problems is through the reputation channel. Overall, reserves to imports, past and predicted future default are substantial determinants of sovereign bank loan spreads.

Contract costs, bank loans, and the cross-monitoring hypothesis

I examine whether monitoring-related contract costs are reflected in bank loan spreads and find evidence that cross-monitoring by senior and subordinate claimholders is associated with smaller spreads. I also find that loan spreads reflect financial contract costs of controlling borrower behavior toward the assets being financed. These results support the importance of contract costs in firms' financing decisions and provide evidence of the importance of monitoring in bank lending arrangements.