Bank Lending Survey Research Articles

Effectiveness and channels of macroprudential policies: lessons from the Euro area

PurposeThe design of a macro-prudential framework and its interaction with monetary policy has been at the forefront of the policy agenda since the global financial crisis. However, most advanced economies (AEs) have little experience using macroprudential policies. As a result, relatively little is known empirically about macroprudential instruments’ effectiveness in mitigating systemic risks in these countries, about their channels of transmission, and about how these instruments would interact with monetary policy. This paper aims to fill in the gap.Design/methodology/approachThe authors develop a new approach using the euro area bank lending survey to assess the effectiveness of macro-prudential policies in containing credit growth and house price appreciation in mortgage markets. Estimation is performed under the panel regressions (OLS, GLS) and panel VAR setup. Endogeneity issues arising from measures of macro-prudential policies are addressed by introducing GMM estimation and various instruments.FindingsThe authors find instruments targeting the cost of bank capital most effective in slowing down mortgage credit growth, and that the impact is transmitted mainly through price margins, the same banking channel as monetary policy. Limits on loan-to-value ratios are also effective, especially when monetary policy is excessively loose.Originality/valueWith limited data on macroprudential policy measures in the AEs, this paper proposed a new methodology of using answers from bank lending survey as proxies to assess the effectiveness of specific macroprudential measures and their transmission channels.

Credit Scoring and the Quality of Business Credit During the Crisis

The Great Recession produced a sharp worsening of credit quality for banks and firms alike. In this context, this paper investigates whether in Italy during the period 2008–2011 credit quality was higher for the banks that had adopted credit scoring techniques before the crisis and actually incorporated them into their loan evaluation process. To this end, I use a unique dataset built by merging information about banks organization variables drawn from the Regional Bank Lending Survey, the main banks’ balance sheet indicators and data on non‐performing loans drawn from the Italian Central Credit Register and from banks’ supervisory reports to the Bank of Italy.The main finding is that, after controlling for other supply factors, during the financial crisis the banks that relied more heavily on credit scoring models had higher‐quality loans to non‐financial companies. This result is consistent with the thesis that scoring models mitigated the negative impact of the crisis by enhancing banks’ screening ability. However, the positive effect is significant only for loans granted to large firms; for smaller firms, the absence of a significant effect could be explained by the greater importance traditionally attached to other means of assessing their creditworthiness, mainly soft information.

Are Bank Credit Standards Affected by the Business Cycle? Evidence from the Euro-Area

The purpose of this study is to investigate the link between bank credit standards (CS hereafter) and business cycle fluctuations. This is the first empirical study which attempts to examine whether business cycle affects bank CS. We use quarterly survey-data on CS taken from the Bank Lending Survey from 2003Q1 to 2016Q1, for 14 Euro-area countries. We find that business cycle and GDP growth trend exert a negative influence on CS, and thus business cycle and trend are two major drivers of the tightening or easing of the CS. We also find that the two components (cyclical and trend) of the real GDP decomposition affect in a symmetric way CS. Moreover, symmetry of impacts was found between the CS and the business cycle and trend for large vs. small firms. Our findings could be helpful for both the European bank regulatory authorities and for the banks’ loan officers when they are designing macro-prudential policies.

What is the Effect of Credit Standards and Credit Demand on Loan Growth? Evidence from the Croatian Bank Lending Survey

This paper explores the results from the Bank Lending Survey and bank-level data on loan quantities and prices to determine the effects of lending standards and loan demand on credit growth in Croatia for the period from the third quarter of 2012 to the last quarter of 2015. Panel analysis has shown that there are statistically significant effects of credit standards and demand on the growth of certain types of loans. The results of the counterfactual analysis indicate that credit demand affected loan growth more than credit standards, especially for loans to enterprises.

The level effect of bank lending standards on business lending

Do tightenings of bank lending standards permanently reduce bank lending? We construct a measure of a bank’s level of lending standards using micro-data from the sample of banks participating in the Eurosystem Bank Lending Survey in The Netherlands and show that this level measure affects business lending. The level effect is statistically robust and economically relevant; a one point tightening reduces a bank’s quarterly growth rate of business lending by about half a percentage point until bank lending standards are eased. This level effect of bank lending standards helps to explain low bank lending growth after a period of prolonged tightening as well as high bank lending growth in a period of prolonged easing. As such, the analysis provides another potential indicator for macroprudential policy.

The Level Effect of Bank Lending Standards on Business Lending

Do tightenings of bank lending standards permanently reduce bank lending? We construct a measure of a bank’s level of lending standards using micro-data from the sample of banks participating in the Eurosystem Bank Lending Survey in The Netherlands and show that this level measure affects business lending. The level effect is statistically robust and economically relevant; a one point tightening reduces a bank’s quarterly growth rate of business lending by about half a percentage point until bank lending standards are eased. This level effect of bank lending standards helps to explain low bank lending growth after a period of prolonged tightening as well as high bank lending growth in a period of prolonged easing. As such, the analysis provides another potential indicator for macroprudential policy.

The Euro Area Bank Lending Survey

The euro area bank lending survey (BLS) serves as an important tool in the analysis of bank lending conditions in the euro area and across euro area countries, providing otherwise unobservable qualitative information on bank loan demand and supply from/to euro area enterprises and households. Since its introduction in 2003, the BLS has received growing attention and has become of key importance for the analysis and assessment of bank lending conditions in the euro area and at the national level. In particular in the context of the financial crisis, the BLS was used to gather additional information on the impact of the crisis and of the ECB JEL Classification: E44, E5, G21

Effectiveness and Channels of Macroprudential Instruments: Lessons from the Euro Area

The crisis has highlighted the importance of setting up macro-prudential oversight frameworks, having effective macro-prudential instruments in place to be called upon to mitigate growing financial imbalances as needed. We develop a new approach using the euro area Bank Lending Survey to assess the effectiveness of macro-prudential policies in containing credit growth and house price appreciation in mortgage markets. We find instruments targeting the cost of bank capital most effective in slowing down mortgage credit growth, and that the impact is transmitted mainly through price margins, the same banking channel as monetary policy. Limits on loan-to-value ratios are also effective, especially when monetary policy is excessively loose.

Corporate investment and bank-dependent borrowers during the recent financial crisis

Abstract We use the recent financial crisis period to analyse the effect of bank credit tightening on firm investment. We derive a new set of credit tightening indexes from the ECB Bank Lending Survey. Combining these with annual balance sheet data from Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Belgium and Portugal, we exploit the heterogeneity in the dependence on bank finance of different industries to identify real effects of credit tightening. We show that in response to tightening, investment falls substantially more in bank-dependent industries.

The role of bank lending tightening on corporate bond issuance in the eurozone

Abstract The availability of bank lending and corporate bond markets underwent a drastic change in the eurozone with the break out of the financial crisis. To quantify the relation between the two, this paper empirically tests the role of bank lending tightening on non-financial corporate (NFC) bond issuance in the eurozone. By utilizing a unique data set provided by the ECB Bank Lending Survey, we capture the “pure” credit supply effect on corporate external financing in a sample period of 2003–2013. We find that tightened credit standards positively affect the NFC bond issuance: a 1pp increase in banks reporting considerable tightening on loans leads to around a 7% increase in firms’ bond issuance in the eurozone. The substitution effect is net of the demand for bank lending and robust to factors such as price differentials. The impact of bank credit tightening on firms’ bond issuance is particularly observable in core eurozone countries. This is partially due to the underdeveloped debt capital markets in some countries.

Estimating the Effects of a Credit Supply Restriction: Is There a Bias in the Bank Lending Survey?

In this paper we test for the potential bias in the estimated contribution of a supply restriction on lending to enterprises, as captured by the assessment of credit standards provided by the banks participating in the Eurosystem Bank Lending Survey (BLS banks). For Italy, we combine the information provided by the relatively small panel of large banking groups participating in the Eurosystem survey with the replies obtained from the non-overlapping and wider group of banks participating in the Regional Bank Lending Survey (non-BLS banks) carried out by the Bank of Italy. We find evidence of a limited upward bias in the estimated contribution of a tightening in credit standards from using the information for the BLS-only banks. This outcome mainly reflects a lower estimated sensitivity of lending growth to the considered indicators of a supply restriction for the non-BLS banks. The Eurosystem Bank Lending Survey, therefore, continues to be a timely and important source of information over the credit cycle for policymakers.

Disentangling Loan Demand and Supply Shocks in Russia

This article presents three alternative models for decomposing loan developments into components associated with changes in loan demand and supply fundamentals. Two models are based on macro data (error correction model and structural vector autoregression with sign restrictions) and one is based on bank-specific Bank Lending Survey results. We conclude that although loan growth in Russia converges to a long-run equilibrium determined by macroeconomic (demand) factors the convergence is likely to be driven by bank-side (supply) shocks. We identify large and unexplained supply shocks in loan fluctuations during the crisis of 2008-2009, signifying an impairment of credit markets. We also find contractionary shocks unrelated to demand fundamentals or balance sheet structures in 2013, although in general loan developments in 2013 and the first half of 2014 were not at all extraordinary.

A non-standard monetary policy shock: The ECB's 3-year LTROs and the shift in credit supply

We study the macroeconomic effects of the 3-year long-term refinancing operations (LTROs) introduced by the ECB in December 2011 with the aim of reducing the obstacles to credit supply through the mitigation of liquidity and funding risks in the euro area banking system. Therefore, we interpret the measure as a credit supply shock, which is identified both recursively and with sign restriction methods using the euro area Bank Lending Survey (BLS). The size of the shock due to the LTROs is computed using both the April 2012 BLS and the special ad-hoc questions on the LTROs conducted in February 2012. The counterfactual exercises suggest that the 3-year LTROs lifted prospects for real GDP and loan provision to non-financial corporations and increased goods prices over the next two-to-three years, thereby avoiding a major credit crunch.

Corporate Investment and Bank-Dependent Borrowers During the Recent Financial Crisis

We use the recent financial crisis period to analyse the effect of bank credit tightening on real firm investment. We derive a new set of credit tightening indexes from the ECB Bank Lending Survey. Combining these with annual balance sheet data from Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Belgium and Portugal, we exploit the heterogeneity in the dependence on bank finance of different industries to identify real effects of credit tightening. We show that in response to tightening, investment falls substantially more in bank-dependent industries.

The Effect of Credit Conditions on the Dutch Housing Market

It is widely perceived that the supply of mortgages, especially since the extensive liberalization of the mortgage market of the 1980s, has had implications for the housing market in the Netherlands. In this paper we introduce a new method to estimate a credit condition index (CCI). The CCI represents changes in the supply of credit over time, apart from changes in interest rates and income. It has been estimated by an unobserved component in an error-correction model in which the average amount of new provided mortgages per period is explained by the borrowing capacity and additional control variables. The model has been estimated on data representing first time buyers (FTB). For FTB we can assume that the housing and non-housing wealth is essentially zero. The CCI has subsequently been used as an explanatory variable in an error-correction model for house prices representing not only FTB, but all households. The models have been estimated on quarterly data from 1995 to 2012. The estimated CCI has a high correlation with the Bank Lending Survey, a quarterly survey in which banks are asked whether there is a tightening or relaxation of (mortgage) lending standards compared to the preceding period. The CCI has explanatory power in the error-correction model for house prices. In real terms house prices declined about 25% from 2009 to 2012. The estimation results show that nearly half of this decline can be attributed to a decline in the CCI.

Business Cycle and Credit Cycle: New Evidence in Italy

We investigate the relationship between the business cycle and the credit cycle in Italy, focusing in particular on the real and the credit channel. We find evidence of both effects, with the former conveyed primarily by the creditworthiness of large firms. Moreover, using data from the Bank Lending Survey provided by the ECB, we disentangle supply shocks from demand shocks by separating the shifts originated by factors inside the banking sector (the bank lending channel), from those originated by factors outside the banking sector (the borrower’s balance-sheet channel), finding that both types of shocks have a significant impact on the real economy. Our results have far reaching implications for financial stability.

Bank Capital Adjustment Process and Aggregate Lending

This paper proposes a new micro-founded measure to quantify the aggregate capitalisation of banking sectors taking into account both market discipline and regulatory constraints. It allows studying the connection between micro capital shortfalls from an implicit bank specific capital target and macro impacts of capital shortages on aggregate lending. (i) Our quantitative country-wide index of bank capitalisation is consistent with the qualitative reports of the ECB Bank Lending Survey. (ii) This index correlates with future fluctuations in aggregate lending,especially when a banking system is under-capitalised. (iii) The adjustment of capital constrained banks mostly impact loans to domestic non-financial agents. Thus our measure suggests that (a) countercyclical capital requirements may be less effective if market constraints are more important, and (b) slow moving balance sheet variables can help detect vulnerabilities and reversals in the lending cycle.

Supply Tightening or Lack of Demand? An Analysis of Credit Developments During the Lehman Brothers and the Sovereign Debt Crises

We estimate a structural econometric model for the credit market in Italy, using bank-level information and the responses of Italian banks to the euro-area Bank Lending Survey to identify demand and supply, focusing on the recent financial crisis. The main results are the following. First, while in normal circumstances the functioning of the Italian credit market is consistent with a standard imperfect-competition model, during phases of high tension there are credit-rationing phenomena. Second, supply restrictions have a relevant impact on lending, both when they are due to banks’ balance-sheet constraints and when they are the effect of greater perceived borrower riskiness. Third, to a large extent the tightening during the sovereign debt crisis reflected the common shock of the widening sovereign spread, not idiosyncratic bank funding problems. Fourth, the role of supply was stronger during the sovereign than the global financial crisis, mainly due to greater banks’ funding difficulties. In a counterfactual exercise we estimate that in the second quarter of 2012 interest rates were more than 2 percentage points higher and the stock of loans more than 8 percent lower than would have been the case without the tightening of lending standards in the course of the entire crisis.

The Role of Bank Lending Tightening on Corporate Bond Issuance in the Eurozone

The availability of bank lending and corporate bond markets underwent a drastic change in the eurozone with the break out of the financial crisis. To quantify the relation between the two, this paper empirically tests the role of bank lending tightening on non-financial corporate (NFC) bond issuance in the eurozone. By utilizing a unique data set provided by the ECB Bank Lending Survey, we capture the pure credit supply effect on corporate external financing in a sample period of 2003 - 2013. We find that tightened credit standards positively affect the NFC bond issuance: a 1pp increase in banks reporting considerable tightening on loans leads to around a 7% increase in firms' bond issuance in the eurozone. The substitution effect is net of the demand for bank lending and robust to factors such as price differentials. The impact of bank credit tightening on firms’ bond issuance is particularly observable in core eurozone countries. This is partially due to the underdeveloped debt capital markets in some countries.

A Non-Standard Monetary Policy Shock: The ECB’s 3-year LTROs and the Shift in Credit Supply

The identification of non-standard monetary policy shocks is a key challenge for econometricians, not least as these measures are somewhat unprecedented in modern central banking history and as the instruments vary widely across the various non-standard measures. This paper focuses on the 3-year long-term re-financing operations (LTROs), implemented by the ECB in December 2011 and February 2012. The macroeconomic impact of this measure is identified using the April 2012 Bank Lending Survey (BLS) as well as the special ad-hoc questions on the LTROs conducted in mid-February 2012. We estimate a panel-VAR for the euro area countries, which include relevant BLS variables, and identify credit supply shocks both recursively and with sign restriction methods. The macroeconomic effects of the 3-year LTROs are associated with the favorable credit supply shocks extracted through BLS information for the first half of 2012. Compared with the most likely developments one could have expected at the end of 2011 when financial tensions culminated, our counterfactual exercises suggest that the 3-year LTROs significantly lifted prospects for real GDP and loan provision to non-financial corporations over the next two-to-three years.