Baltic States Research Articles

Development Resources of the Border Regions of the Russian Federation

The Russian Federation borders with 18 foreign countries. Seven of them are NATO members as of March 2024. The state border of Russia passes through the territory of almost half of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. The shelling of the territory of the Russian Federation by the armed forces of Ukraine radically changes the situation in the sphere of not only of military, but also of socio-economic security, primarily in the border regions of Russia. The issue of their protection, elimination of weaknesses and organization of society’s life in a new, unstable, largely unfavorable external environment is especially acute. The formation of resources necessary for solving these issues largely depends on the current level of economic development of the country and its border regions. The author’s purpose was to illustrate some aspects of the economic situation in the border regions of the Russian Federation, given the current circumstances where Russia’s adversaries are attempting to create areas of tension near the Russian borders, exemplified by Ukraine, Poland, and the Baltic States. To achieve this goal, the author solved several tasks. They are: selecting the subjects of the Russian Federation to be studied, determining the set of statistical indicators to be analyzed, and determining the length of the dynamic range for each indicator. We also constructed the dynamics of change for these selected indicators. The results of the author’s analysis of seven statistical indicators that reflect the socio-economic situation in 36 selected border regions of the Russian Federation are presented below. The analyzed statistical data are taken for the period from 1995 to 2021. The economic and statistical research was carried out on the basis of data from the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation, most of which are published in statistical collections “Regions of Russia. Socio-economic Indicators”. The article shows that a number of the studied parameters indicate the need to strengthen the economic power of the Russian border regions in modern and possible future conditions. The obtained results can be useful for legislative and executive authorities of the Russian Federation and the subjects of the Russian Federation in the development and implementation of the development policy of regions that have a particularly important strategic importance.

In the Shadow of War: Public Opinion in the Baltic States, 2014 and 2021

Drawing on research on political culture and research on geopolitical orientations, this article analyses public opinion in the three Baltic states (2014 and 2021), focusing on political support, inter-ethnic relations and geopolitical attitudes. In the first section, the empirical analysis demonstrates widespread public support for the national communities in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. Most respondents feel a sense of attachment to or pride in their respective homeland, and a relative majority of all respondents feel that their contemporary political systems are preferable to other systems in the past. At the same time, the analysis alert us to distinct ethnic differences: the Russian-speakers in the three countries tend to be decidedly more nostalgic about the Soviet past and less satisfied with the present regimes. Confirming and updating findings familiar from previous studies, this article also notes that the population groups in the three Baltic states were growing more or less accustomed to the domestic situation, up until the escalation of the Russo-Ukrainian war in 2022. In the second part of the article, we turn to geopolitical belonging and security perceptions in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.

The Nordic Investment Bank: The Evolution of an International Institution

Abstract The Nordic Investment Bank (nib) is an international financial institution created in 1975 by the Nordic Council of Ministers to promote investment projects and exports in the Nordic region. In 1998, a new Agreement and Statutes replaced the previous ones and established the international character of the institution. Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, nib started to provide financing to the Baltic states which in 2004 became full members under a new Agreement. The three establishing treaties have marked the evolution of nib: first, a common institution of the Nordic countries; then, an international financial institution of the Nordic countries; and, finally, a Nordic-Baltic international financial institution. In this process, a key point is to appreciate whether and to what extent nib has continuously operated as a legal entity across the succession of establishing treaties.

Lady Muriel Paget’s Mission to Daugavpils (Part I)

In February 1920, Lady Muriel Paget established a children’s hospital in Daugavpils. It was the start of a relief Mission which operated until the autumn of 1922, taking the form eventually of infant welfare clinics and feeding kitchens. From the start of 1921, this Mission was broadened to include Riga and, ultimately, Tallinn and Kaunas; but the core of the operation remained Daugavpils. This article explores the centrality of Daugavpils to the work of the Mission, the evolution of Lady Muriel’s ambitions, and the often fraught relationship with her chief funder, the Save the Children Fund (SCF).The article is published in two parts. Part I discusses the origins of the Mission in Lady Muriel’s concern to gain access to northern Russia, and the debate about the nature of the Mission – whether to concentrate on a single hospital or to broaden the reach of the Mission through a network of welfare clinics and feeding kitchens, issues finally resolved by Lady Muriel’s own dramatic visit to Daugavpils in October 1920. Part Two considers the evolution of the Mission in 1921–22, once the support of the SCF had been obtained for an endeavour focused on the Baltic states rather than Daugavpils alone. It focuses on the difficult relationship between the Mission and its chief supporter, the SCF, and differing understandings of the nature of relief work. The SCF cut funding for the Mission on the grounds that the situation in the Baltic states was no longer an emergency. However, it did agree to some additional funding after the Daugavpils flood of April 1922.

Price Cannibalization Effect on Long-Term Electricity Prices and Profitability of Renewables in the Baltic States

This paper aims to evaluate price cannibalization effects in forecasts of long-term electricity prices and substantiate their relevance on the profitability of renewables in the Baltic States from 2024 to 2033. Statistical data analysis, literature review, scenario method, and PLEXOS modeling were applied. Five scenarios were analyzed for developing renewable energy sources (RES) and load in Lithuania. In contrast, scenarios for Estonia and Latvia were based on assumptions derived from the countries’ national RES strategies. The results showed that the increase in RES capacities will halve electricity market prices from around 130 EUR/MWh in 2024 to 58 EUR/MWh in Latvia, 60 EUR/MWh in Estonia, and 60–77 EUR/MWh in Lithuania in 2033. In time-waving, the absolute and relative price cannibalization effects of renewables were found. In 2033, the loss of revenue from solar photovoltaic (PV) generators was estimated to be 5.5–17.0 EUR/MWh in Lithuania, 7.1 EUR/MWh in Latvia, and 5.6 EUR in Estonia. The case of onshore wind demonstrated revenue losses of 10.5–22.0 EUR/MWh in Lithuania, 12.0 EUR/MWh in Latvia, and 10.0 EUR/MWh in Estonia. After 2029, revenues received by RES electricity generators could not guarantee project profitability; therefore, market flexibility options will be required. The key innovative strategy to mitigate the price cannibalization effect is the demand-side response when leveraging demand flexibility. Typically, this is achieved by sending price signals to the consumers who, if they have any, shift their demand to lower price periods. This is easily applied within HVAC systems, smart electric vehicle charging, and smart home appliance usage. Such behavior would allow the price cannibalization effect to be decreased.

We need targeted policy interventions in the EU to save soil carbon

Globally, annual emissions from managed organic soils accounts for up to 5% of all anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Climate-wise management and restoration of degraded organic soils could reduce GHG emissions quickly and at relatively low costs. The European Union (EU) Member States that have large areas of organic soils with high GHG emissions are Sweden, Finland, Germany, Ireland, Poland, Netherlands, and the Baltic countries. To meet the climate targets and objectives of the Paris Agreement the land-use sector is indispensable and mitigation policies targeting organic soils will be needed. The international regulatory framework is broad and quite unspecific. In contrast, the European Union has initiated binding regulation for the land-use sector through the EU Climate Law, the EU LULUCF regulation, and the proposed EU Nature Restoration Law. However, even this regulatory approach is not on track to deliver on its binding ambitions, indicating the need for more effective implementation measures also on organic soils in the EU and its member states. Furthermore, we argue that appropriate policy selection should consider current knowledge regarding the climate impacts of management options of organic soils. Lastly, we need more studies on GHG emissions, and standardized methods for GHG inventories, to resolve uncertainties surrounding the impacts of management to GHG emissions. Successful policy implementation requires more efforts but also improved scientific justification through continuous consideration of climate policy integrity and strengthening of the reliability of GHG inventories.

Grigore Niculescu-Buzești, Chargé d'Affaires of Romania in Riga During the Years Fateful for the Baltic States, 1939–1940

In the case of the mandate that Grigore Niculescu-Buzești (1908–1949) fulfilled in the Latvian capital, attention is captivated, from the very beginning, by his numerous reports and analysis carried out by the Romanian diplomat. A careful and detailed study of the telegrams he sent to Bucharest from the Baltic capital can reveal to anyone, on the one hand, the concerns, fears, tensions and hopes of the authorities in Riga, as well as of Latvian society, in the context of the Soviet-German pact of 23 August 1939, of the outbreak of the war and the relationship with the Soviet Union, and on the other hand, – the mechanisms of Moscow’s aggression that led to the annexation of the Baltic countries in June 1940. Until the summer of 1940, the Romanian diplomat sent numerous telegrams to Bucharest, in which the stages of the annexation can be captured clearly and precisely. The number of documents and the amount of information reveal Bucharest’s high interest regarding the events in the Baltic states at that time. Thus, the author can trace the impact and relevance of his information and analysis in a tragic context, marked by tensions and convulsions throughout Europe. Moreover, Niculescu-Buzeștis experience as Romani’s chargé daffaires in Riga deeply marked the future Romanian minister of foreign affairs.

The Russia-Ukraine War and Perceptions and Responses of the Baltic States

The Russia-Ukraine War and Perceptions and Responses of the Baltic States

Legal regulation of the activities of Soviet and party bodies in the fight against the fascist-nationalist underground in the Baltic States (1944-1953)

The relevance is due to the theoretical and practical significance of scientific problems related to the study of the legal regulation of the activities of Soviet and party bodies in the fight against the fascist-nationalist underground in the Baltic States in the last years of the Great Patriotic War and the post-war years. The experience of fighting nationalism in the post-war decade, when the Soviet state managed to cope with the fascist-nationalist underground in a relatively short time, seems instructive at the present time.Purpose. Сlarification in the historical and legal aspect of the peculiarities of the struggle of Soviet and party organs, as well as organs and troops of the NKVD-NKGB of the USSR with the fascist-nationalist underground in the Baltic States in 1944-1953.Objectives: to analyze the main normative legal documents regulating the fight against the fascist-nationalist underground in the Baltic States in 1944-1953; to determine the features of the counteraction of Soviet and party organs, organs and troops of the NKVD-NKGB to the activities of participants in the fascist-nationalist underground in Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia in the last years of the Great Patriotic War and the first decade after the end of the war.Methodology. The dialectical, historical, comparative legal method was used as the methodological basis of the study due to the historical and legal nature of the article.Results the research was of a historical and legal nature and made it possible to identify the specifics of the activities of the Soviet authorities in the fight against the fascist-nationalist underground in the Baltic States. Not only operational-Chekist, military operations were carried out, but also criminal and repressive measures were carried out, but also administrative, agitation and propaganda measures corresponding to the "current moment" were applied. The struggle against the fascist-nationalist underground was led by party and Soviet bodies, both at the republican and all-Union levels.Conclusion. The complex of measures carried out in 1944-1953 in order to combat the fascist-nationalist underground in the Baltic States has historical and legal significance. The experience of its implementation can be used by the troops of the National Guard of the Russian Federation, state security agencies and other law enforcement agencies, both now and in the future, including as part of a special military operation.

A comparison of plant macrofossil-based quantitative climate reconstruction methods: A case study of the lateglacial Baltic States

The recent advancements of new quantitative tools compatible with plant macrofossil proxy data have revived its potential for paleoclimate research. Plant macrofossils are commonly used in so-called indicator-species approaches, using methodologies that are typically built on known observations linking modern plant distributions with climate. This allows complementary paleoclimate reconstructions using an approach that is not limited by the spatial availability of calibration samples obtained from surface sediments (e.g., pollen or chironomids).We aim to evaluate the impact that various methodological choices have on the plant-macrofossil based reconstructions of January and July temperature patterns for the Lateglacial (14–11 ka BP) period. We use a variety of classic and novel quantitative climate reconstruction algorithms with plant macrofossil assemblages from 13 sites of the Baltic States. We use unfiltered plant data to evaluate the ability of each method to also handle the presence of plants that might have a weak sensitivity to temperature. Additionally, we test the influence of another methodological choice – the choice of modern calibration region – on the reconstructed climate.Our findings indicate that, with no prior filtering of summer and winter-sensitive plants, temporal temperature variations can be reconstructed with methods that implement probability density functions. Although some disparities in reconstructions are seen between the tested algorithms, we note that the choice of calibration region bears a greater influence on the results. A calibration region that best represents the past environment should be chosen rather than one representing the same spatial extent as the fossil site(s). Moreover, for long-term reconstructions, a “dynamic calibration set” approach should be considered in future studies by using a range of calibration regions and mirroring the continuously changing broadscale environmental regime of the past.

The security and deterrence policy of the Baltic states in 2014-2024

ObjectivesThe full-scale annexation of Crimea and Russia's invasion of Ukraine prompted the political elites of the Baltic states to devote even more attention to security problems and to update the defence plans of the Baltic region. The aim of the work is to analyze the development of the security and deterrence strategies of the Baltic states in the years 2014-2024 in the face of potential Russian threats on the border of the eastern flank of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. The starting point for the discussion is the hypothesis that the sense of threat from the Russian Federation contributes to the intensification of trilateral military cooperation between Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. The theoretical basis for the empirical analysis is the adaptive strategy model (so-called grand strategy ) developed by Colin Dueck .Methodscase studyResultsAfter the annexation of Crimea and the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Baltic states were encouraged to tighten strategic trilateral cooperation and develop the potential of their armed forces to increase the ability to defend their own territory, while striving to strengthen collective defence and deterrence within NATO.ConclusionsThe Russian invasion of Ukraine resulted in active investment in defense in the Baltic states. In Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia, there is currently strong political will to continuously develop military potential, combined with increased public interest in state security issues.

Exploring the psychology of price barriers in Baltic stock markets

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to investigate the presence of psychological barriers both in the main stock market indices of the Baltic states and the most actively traded individual stocks. A psychological barrier refers to a specific price point, often at round numbers (i.e. powers of 10), that investors believe is challenging to breach, influencing their behavior and trading decisions.Design/methodology/approachWe conduct uniformity tests and barrier tests, such as barrier proximity tests and barrier hump tests, to evaluate the presence of psychological barriers. Additionally, we explore variations in means and variances near these potential barriers using regression and GARCH analysis.FindingsThe findings reveal that psychological barriers do exist in the Baltic stock markets, particularly within market indices. The Estonian market index stands out with the most pronounced indications of psychological barriers. Individual stocks also display significant changes in means and variances related to potential barriers, albeit with less uniformity.Practical implicationsCollectively, our findings challenge the traditional assumption of random returns within the Baltic stock markets. For practitioners, the finding that psychological barriers exist opens up opportunities for investment strategies that can capitalize on them.Originality/valueThis study is the first to comprehensively investigate psychological barriers in the Baltic stock markets. Our results provide a valuable contribution to understanding the impact of that phenomenon on pricing dynamics, which is particularly pertinent in less-researched frontier markets like the Baltic states.

The STEP-ONE program (Supportive Training and Essential Preparation for Optimal Nursing Education) - what have we done and what will we do in the STEP-TWO edition?

Abstract Introduction The STEP-ONE program was a significant initiative designed to enhance the skills and knowledge of nurses specializing in heart failure care in Central and Eastern Europe, and the Baltic countries (CEE-BA). Purpose Its importance lies in addressing the crucial role of nurses in heart failure management, an area often overlooked in these regions. By training nurses to provide optimal, integrated care, the program aims to improve patient outcomes and reduce hospitalizations. The number of nurses who participated in the program is not specified, but its impact is likely substantial in advancing heart failure care. Continuing the program as the STEP-TWO edition is planned to be updated of nurses and patients materials according to ESC HF 2023 guidelines6, taking into account the profile of the patient with HFrEF, HFmREF, HFimEF, HFpEF and taking into account the implementation of pilot projects: (1a) Assessment of HFpEF risk7 and recommendations for medical staff regarding further diagnostics; (1b) Analysis of recommended therapies according to guidelines; (2) Pilot training Program center Poland centers- CEE-BA; (3) Pilot research programs - 1a and 1/b in 2-3 centers (fig.1). All of the activities undertaken in the program are intended to improve care for heart failure patients and can be seen as a model solution for providing qualified personnel in the European countries. Conclusions The STEP ONE educational program was developed with the participation of the medical community, especially nurses caring for HF patients. Educational materials for nurses and patients, as well as an educational program, were prepared and implemented in Poland and the region of CEE-BA. During the second phase, an updated materials with the 2023 guidelines on HF will be prepared. A pilot study will evaluate the impact of educating HF nurses on patient risk assessment of HFPEF and on identifying patients who do not have optimal therapy according to GDMT. Optimization of the HF patient pathway at the pilotage centers of the program and collaboration between HF nurses and cardiologists will be sought. Moreover, the STEP-TWO program will include preparing educational materials focused and dedicated not only on patients but also on caregivers.

Statistics of Periodicals in the Baltic States: Data Sources and Collections

Publishing is a significant part of the cultural, creative, and economic sectors. Its research, assessment, and forecasting require grounded, reliable, accurate, consistent, and comparable statistical data. Considering the lack of research in periodicals statistics and the relevance of publishing statistics, as well as the fact that in the Baltic countries, publishing statistics data are collected by institutions at the same level, the problem arises whether the national libraries’ applied foundational recommendations and legal documents, as well as data collection methodology, can ensure data validity, reliability, comprehensiveness, and comparability. This article aims to examine and compare the data collection practices of periodical statistics in the Baltic States. The research object includes the legal foundation of publishing statistics in Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia, as well as the 2022 publishing statistics resources and official statistics data collections. UNESCO recommendations and International Organization for Standardization standards can be considered guidelines for such data collection and accounting. The legal foundation of publishing statistics consists of legal deposit laws, which must ensure the sources of statistical data. Even though publishing statistics data are collected by national libraries and the source of statistical data in all countries is legal deposits, the statistical data collections are not identical. Countries choose which data to collect, what criteria to apply, and in what form to present them. It is important to emphasize that data on the publishing industry are not presented in statistical collections, although their collection guidelines and presentation importance are highlighted in international recommendations and normative documents. Statistical data on electronic periodicals are provided only by Estonia. National libraries in the Baltic States are official statistics compilers, so summarized publishing statistics data are provided to national statistics institutions, opening new technological possibilities for data analysis and integration of new data. The collections of statistical data on newspapers and magazines can only be compared according to a few main criteria, as countries have chosen different statistical data presentation features, the main ones being the varying categorization and periodicity characteristics of newspapers and magazines.

Battery Scheduling Optimization and Potential Revenue for Residential Storage Price Arbitrage

Residential energy storage systems offer significant potential for price arbitrage by capitalizing on fluctuations in electricity prices throughout the day. This study investigates the potential revenue from optimal battery scheduling for residential storage in different north-western European electricity price zones during 2023. Using Nord Pool day-ahead prices, we applied an optimization model to determine the revenue for two types of batteries: 5 kW/10 kWh and 10 kW/10 kWh. The analysis considered battery capacity, charging and discharging efficiency, and maximum charge/discharge rates. Our results show notable variations in potential revenue across different regions, with the Baltic states demonstrating the highest revenue potential. The findings indicate that while 10 kW batteries can generate higher total revenue, 5 kW batteries are more efficient in terms of revenue per cycle. These regional disparities underscore the need for targeted incentives and policies to enhance the economic viability of residential energy storage. The research results provide valuable insights into optimizing residential battery storage for price arbitrage, offering guidance for consumers, policymakers, and energy providers to maximize economic benefits in various electricity markets.

Alcohol control policy and alcohol-attributable disease burden in Finland and the Baltic countries: A longitudinal study 1995-2019.

Alcohol remains a significant contributor to mortality and morbidity in Finland and the Baltic countries, particularly among men. This study aimed to assess alcohol policy restrictiveness in this region from 1995 to 2019 using a modified version of the Bridging the Gap (BtG-M) policy scale and examine its association with alcohol-related disease burden. The study utilised national laws to score policy restrictiveness (higher BtG-M scores mean stricter policies) and age-standardised rates of disability-adjusted life years (DALY), years of life lost, years lived with disability and deaths per 100,000 from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD). Spearman correlation tests and panel data regression models were applied to assess the association between policy score and burden of disease. Finland maintained a high BtG-M score, while the Baltic countries experienced recent increases from initially lower scores. Alcohol-related disease burden showed an inverse association with policy changes in these countries. Strongest association was seen between the BtG-M score and DALY rates attributed to injuries. Premature mortality among men constituted the largest proportion of disease burden. Despite challenges in accessing and comparing policy data over time, we showed a strong association between alcohol policy and alcohol-related harm in Finland and the Baltic countries. This study is one of the first to use the BtG-M scale to monitor changes in alcohol policies over time and their relationship to alcohol-related harm using GBD methodology. The study highlights the effects of national alcohol policies on levels of alcohol-related harm.

Current expansion of the Barn Owl (<i>Tyto alba</i>) (Tytonidae, Aves) in Northern Eurasia

In the north of Eurasia, until the mid-twentieth century, the Barn Owl (Tyto alba) was sporadically distributed only in the Baltic states, in the west of Belarus and Ukraine, and in Moldova. Once, in 1942, a vagrant bird was caught in Turkmenistan also. At the end of the 20th century, reports appeared of rare recordings of barn owls in Eastern Europe, and since the beginning of the 21st century, pronounced expansion of these birds has been noted, observed in the south of Ukraine, Crimea, Ciscaucasia, and Transcaucasia. Different subspecies living in Central and Southern Europe and the Middle East are simultaneously expanding their nesting areas, namely: a. guttata, T. a. alba, and T. a. erlangeri. However, visual identification of subspecies and clarification of the direction of their expansion are complicated by the similarity of various forms and their significant individual variability associated with age, sex, intergradation with neighboring subspecies and other factors. The appearance of sedentary barn owls in new places is usually preceded by their post-nesting dispersion, directed in all directions and in some cases reaching 1–2 thousand km from the place of birth. Owing to the expansion of its range, barn owl populations have increased many times in a number of regions over the past decades, but accurate estimates of their numbers there are missing due to the rarity and sporadical nature of new finds, the very secretive lifestyle of these birds and insufficient knowledge of their ecology and ethology in the north of Eurasia. The article examines the taxonomy of various barn owl populations in Northern Eurasia and main diagnostic characteristics of some subspecies living in the north of Eurasia, as well as analyzes features of their historical and current distribution and expansion in Eurasia. The author also discusses possible causes and mechanisms of the barn owl dispersion and touches on information on the dynamics of their numbers in few regions.

Middle Devonian actinopterygians from Lithuania and Belarus

In the Baltic States and Belarus, the Middle Devonian period is characterised by an abundant fossil record of invertebrates such as scolecodonts, brachiopods, ostracods, trilobites, bivalves, crinoids, gastropods, and tentaculites. On the other hand, there was limited diversity in the conodont and other vertebrate fauna. In this study, we introduce a newly refined ichthyofaunal assemblage from the Eifelian and Givetian epochs from the present-day regions of Belarus and Lithuania. The isolated scales of Cheirolepis are identified as C. gaugeri, C. cf. gaugeri, C. aleshkai, C. cf. aleshkai, and Cheirolepis sp., while Orvikuina is represented by the isolated scales of O. vardiaensis and Orvikuina sp. The histological analyses for the scales of Orvikuina are provided here. Moreover, Orvikuina and Cheirolepis taxa are now recognised to be widely distributed throughout the Baltic States, especially Lithuania and Belarus, as a result of these findings. Thus, this ichthyofaunal data markedly improved the biostratigraphic correlation within the study region and expanded the paleogeographic distribution of these taxa during the Eifelian and Givetian time in Laurasia.

Evolution of the concept of total defence in the Baltic States

Evolution of the concept of total defence in the Baltic States

Analyzing the Threshold Impact of Public Debt on Economic Growth: an Investigation of the New Member States within the European Union

This paper aims to analyze the impact of public debt on economic growth in eleven EU new member states (NMS) from Central and South-Eastern Europe for the period 2000-2019. More specifically, we investigate if there is evidence of a non-linear (quadratic) relationship in this group of countries. Having in mind different economic and financial development, historical connections, and geographical proximity, we split them into three more homogenous groups: Balkan countries (BAL-4), Baltic countries (B-3), and Visegrad countries (VIS-4). The results of our study in all models indicate a statistically significant non-linear impact of public debt ratios on annual GDP per capita growth rates. The results across all models show a significant non-linear impact of public debt ratios on annual GDP per capita growth rates. Further, the calculated debt-to-GDP turning point, where the positive effect of accumulated public debt inverts into a negative effect, is roughly between 42.7%-58% of GDP, dependent on which sub-group we have analyzed. In general, the research may contribute to a better understanding of the problem of high public debt and its effect on economic activity in the new EU.