Baltic Dry Index Research Articles

Optimizing global thermal coal shipments

Thermal coal is used to produce energy; with changing emissions standards and advents in renewable technology, the thermal coal market has seen significant transformation over the past decade. We develop a mixed-integer optimization problem that seeks to minimize shipment costs while meeting demand for thermal coal, and which respects quality constraints, supply limits, and port capacity; we use this model to analyze the following scenarios: (i) a counterfactual setting in which we compare historical shipping patterns to model results using a 2012 base year; (ii) the explicit effect of Chinese mandates on coal shipments; (iii) the impact on our shipping patterns of reduced Chinese and Indian demand; (iv) the effects of the Baltic Dry Index and oil prices; and (v) a comparison of shipments prior and subsequent to Panama Canal expansion. Our work can be used to inform policy, study responses to variable price and demand scenarios, and provide insight to both coal producers and consumers about the international coal market. For example, removal of mandates set by the Chinese government to fill its own demand decreases coal flows from Northern to Southern China by 56%, which has a spill-over effect on European and American markets; and, expansion of the Panama Canal leads to only modest shipping increases through the canal (6.7%), with more coal originating from Colombia serving Asian demand.

Impact of Exchange Rate Movements, Global Economic Activity, and the BDI Volatility on Loaded Port Cargo Throughput in South Korea

This study examines the effects of exchange rate movements, global economic activity, and the volatility of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) on South Korea's loaded port cargo throughput, based on monthly data for the period from January 2000 to October 2014. The results indicate that the BDI volatility has a negative effect on the loaded cargo throughput, while increases in the nominal exchange rate and in global economy activity have a positive effect. In addition, the error correction model results show that the error correction term is statistically significant with the negative sign.

해운선사 주가와 해상 운임지수의 영향관계 분석

본 연구의 목적은 해운실물경기 지수가 국내 해운선사 주가에 미치는 영향을 분석하는 것이다. 분석에 사용된 변수는 한국 H회사의 주가와 해운실물경기 지수인 BDI(Baltic Dry Index), CCFI(China Containerized Freight Index), HRCI(Howe Robinson Containership Index)다. 분석기간은 2012년부터 2015년이며, 해운선사 주가지수, BDI, CCFI, HRCI의 4년간의 주간 데이터를 활용하였다. VAR 모형을 이용하여 CCFI와 HRCI가 국내해운선사의 주가지수에 미치는 영향을 분석하였고, VECM 모형을이용하여 BDI가 국내해운선사의 주가지수에 미치는 영향을 분석하였다. VAR 모형 분석결과, CCFI, HRCI는 주가지수에 부(-)의 영향을 미치는 것으로 분석되었으며, VECM 모형 분석결과, BDI는 주가지수에 부(-)의 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 해운실물경기지수에 부의(-) 영향을 받은 국내 해운선사는 해운실물경기지수에 부의(-) 영향을 받은 국내 해운선사는 해운시황에 적절한 대응을 하지 못한 것을 의미한다. 따라서 국내 해운기업은 중장기적인 모니터링을 통해 해운시황에 대처하는 전략이 필요하다. The purpose of this study was to analyze the effect of the shipping industry real economy index on the stock prices of domestic shipping companies. The parameters used in this analysis were the stock price of H Company in South Korea and shipping industry real economy indices including BDI, CCFI and HRCI. The period analysis was from 2012 to 2015. The weekly data for four years of the stock price index of shipping companies, BDI, CCFI, and HRCI were used. The effects of CCFI and HRCI on the stock price index of domestic shipping companies were analyzed using the VAR model, and the effects of BDI on the stock price index of domestic shipping companies were analyzed using the VECM model. The VAR model analysis results showed that CCFI and HRCI had negative effects on the stock price index, and the VECM model analysis results showed that BDI also had a negative effect on the stock price index.

The Baltic Dry Index: cyclicalities, forecasting and hedging strategies

The cyclical properties of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) and their implications for forecasting performance are investigated. We find that changes in the BDI can lead to permanent shocks to trade of major exporting economies. In our forecasting exercise, we show that commodities and trigonometric regression can lead to improved predictions and then use our forecasting results to perform an investment exercise and to show how they can be used for improved risk management in the freight sector.

Analyzing the Long Term Cohesive Effect of Sector Specific Driving Forces.

Financial markets are partially composed of sectors dominated by external driving forces, such as commodity prices, infrastructure and other indices. We characterize the statistical properties of such sectors and present a novel model for the coupling of the stock prices and their dominating driving forces, inspired by mean reverting stochastic processes. Using the model we were able to explain the market sectors’ long term behavior and estimate the coupling strength between stocks in financial markets and the sector specific driving forces. Notably, the analysis was successfully applied to the shipping market, in which the Baltic dry index (BDI), an assessment of the price of transporting the major raw materials by sea, influences the shipping financial market. We also present the analysis of other sectors—the gold mining market and the food production market, for which the model was also successfully applied. The model can serve as a general tool for characterizing the coupling between external forces and affected financial variables and therefore for estimating the risk in sectors and their vulnerability to external stress.

Cross-correlations between Baltic Dry Index and crude oil prices

This paper examines the cross-correlation properties of Baltic Dry Index (BDI) and crude oil prices using cross-correlation statistics test and multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis (MF-DCCA). The empirical results show that the cross-correlations between BDI and crude oil prices are significantly multifractal. By introducing the concept of a “crossover”, we find that the cross-correlations are strongly persistent in the short term and weakly anti-persistent in the long term. Moreover, cross-correlations of all kinds of fluctuations are persistent in the short time while cross-correlations of small fluctuations are persistent and those of large fluctuations are anti-persistent in the long term. We have also verified that the multifractality of the cross-correlations of BDI and crude oil prices is both attributable to the persistence of fluctuations of time series and fat-tailed distributions.

BDI, Gold Price and Economic Growth

Abstract Since its establishment, the Baltic Dry Index has become one of the foremost indicators on the cost of shipping as well as an important barometer on the volume of worldwide trade and manufacturing activity. In this paper, the MSIH(3)-VAR(3) model is selected to analyse the relationship between BDI, Gold prices and economic growth for the United States. The BDI, gold prices and GDP are cointegrated for the United States. The crisis regime tends to last 1 years on average, while Regime 2 is comparatively more persistent with 6.46 years. Finally, Regime 3 which corresponds to high growth tends to last 1.16 years, on average. The crisis regime of the economy is the most persistent regime in the US. Thus, the BDI and gold prices can be used as an indicator of crisis in GDP growth for the United States.

Baltic Dry Index as a Major Economic Policy Indicator: The Relationship with Economic Growth

Since its establishment, the Baltic Dry Index has become one of the foremost indicators on the cost of shipping and an important barometer on the volume of worldwide trade and manufacturing activity.Global factors also play important role in supply and demand of BDI index. BDI and global markets have common economical and financial movement due to market supply and demand which is as a result of turmoil's and crisis. After economic recessions and during economic growth, demand of raw materials increase as production and investments are also increase, as a result transportation volume grows accordingly. On the other hand, during economic slowdowns, demand of raw material decreases which creates utilized capacity. In this paper, MSIAH(3)-VAR(4) model is selected to analyze the relationship between BDI and economic growth for the United States. BDI and GDP are cointegrated for the United States. The crisis regime tends to last 3.13 years on the average, while the Regime 2 is comparatively more persistent with 3.11 years. Finally, Regime 3 which corresponds to the high growth tends to last 2.55 years on the average. Crisis regime of economy is the most persistent regime in the US. Thus, BDI can be used for an indicator of a crisis in GDP growth for the United States.

The Baltic Dry Index and performance excellence in a crisis environment

This paper focuses on an approach to analyzing the relationship between the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) as the main indicator of the cyclical nature of the maritime market and the performance excellence of the representative shipping companies. Results have shown that there is a strong positive correlation between average annual BDI values and performance excellence indicators measured by the traditional adjusted Altman Z-score as well as the recent indicator, the Bex Index. BDI as the most comprehensive indicator of global demand for commodities and raw materials is also analyzed as a supply and demand signal on the stock market. The aim was to test the hypothesis that BDI also functions as a signal that promptly responds to crisis effects. The methodological procedure has been carried out using a real database spanning from 1985 to 2013 where the results have confirmed the hypothesis.

Trade, Institution Quality and Income Inequality

Summary We examine the effect of trade on income inequality in small developing countries. We use two well-accepted trade cost variables for identification: one is based on Baltic Dry Index and another is commodities’ price index. Our main finding is that trade leads to a significant reduction (increase) in income inequality in autocracies (democracies). To explain such different effects, we provide supporting evidence that autocracies export more primary commodities and may follow the Stolper–Samuelson theorem in HO framework, while democracies active in manufacturing outsourcing may follow Feenstra and Hanson (1996) task model.

Learning by exporting effect in China revisited: An instrumental Approach

Does exporting increase the firm’s productivity causally? Focusing on Chinese exporters over the period 1998-2007, we construct a new measure of firm-specific trade cost, based on the daily Baltic Dry Index (BDI), as an instrument of exports. The BDI is termed a leading trade cost indicator, reflecting the cost of utilizing dry bulk carriers which primarily consists of materials that function as raw material inputs to the production of finished goods. We find that a one percentage point expansion in exports raises firm total factor productivity by approximately 0.04 percentage point on average, which accounts for nearly 60 percent growth of the exporter’s productivity over the period 1999-2007.

A new approach for Baltic Dry Index forecasting based on empirical mode decomposition and neural networks

In this article, a method based on empirical mode decomposition (EMD) and artificial neural networks (ANN) is developed for Baltic Dry Index (BDI) forecasting. The original BDI series is decomposed into several independent intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) using EMD first. Then the IMFs are composed into three components: short-term fluctuations, effect of extreme events and long-term trend. On the basis of results of decomposition and composition, ANN is used to model each IMF and composed component. Results show that the proposed EMD-ANN method outperforms ANN and VAR. The EMD-based method thus provides a useful technique for dry bulk market analysis and forecasting.

The Relevance of Freight Rates in Forecasting Cargo Port Volume : A Study of the Guangzhou, China Port

We study historical data of the cargo going through the Guangzhou (GZ) port and related research the relationships between cargo shipments through the GZ port and its relation to domestic and international shipping prices (rates).In turn, we develop a regression based forecasting model based on the data of the GZ cargo port. The second task is to introduce the GZ port, the international dry bulk shipping market; the Chinese coast bulk freight index (CCBFI); and the Baltic dry index (BDI) which reflect domestic and international freight rates respectively. The third task is to make use of the data of the GZ cargo port, CCBFI and BDI from January 2004 to February 2010. The developed model establishes a multi-linear regression to relate the impact of the previous month BDI and CCBFI on the current GZ port cargo and determine the magnitude of the effect. Second, we establish a time series-regression forecasting model. This requires us to observe and consider including historical data of BDI, CCBFI and GZ cargo and come to a conclusion that relates the impact of BDI and CCBFI on the GZ cargo port. Finally, by developing a two parameter exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA), we obtain forecast with high predictive accuracy.

Effects of Real Effective Exchange Rate, World Economy Activity, Baltic Dry Index, Commodity Export on Service Export of Sea Transportation in Korea

Effects of Real Effective Exchange Rate, World Economy Activity, Baltic Dry Index, Commodity Export on Service Export of Sea Transportation in Korea

Exports, HIV incidence and the Baltic Dry Index: Further evidence from sub-Saharan Africa

We estimate the effect of exports on HIV incidence for sub-Saharan African countries, using an instrument related to the Baltic Dry Index. We find that a doubling of exports per capita could increase HIV incidence by about 55% on average.

Trade openness and government size of small developing countries

AbstractThis paper examines the causal effect that trade openness has on government size in small developing countries (SDCs). We use the construction of the trade cost variables based on Baltic Dry Index in primary goods as instruments of trade openness to address the endogeneity issue. We find that the increase in trade openness leads to an increase in government size: a 1 percent expansion in trade openness (trade GDP ratio) raises government consumption over GDP ratio by approximately 0.1–0.2 percentage points on average. Its quantitative significance emphasizes the importance of rethinking the costs and benefits of trade openness for SDCs.

Analysis of the Baltic Exchange Dry Index Using Data Mining Techniques

This report discusses the preliminary results for the analysis of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) using data mining techniques. The overall aim of the project is to investigate ways to identify trends or stages in the BDI associated with economic cycles, as well as other relationships with economic indicators. The dataset consisted of prices for economic indicators from January, 1985 to December, 2008, including monthly average prices of Copper, Oil, Gold, Silver and the Dow Jones Industrial monthly index values.The work described the tasks of Cycle and Stage recognition as a specific type of classification problem and the work of Martin Stopford Maritime Economics (2003) has been used as a starting point. By definition, a complete cycle has four stages. A market trough (stage 1) is followed by a recovery (stage 2), leading to a market peak (stage 3), followed by a collapse (stage 4). Several alternative classification models were developed and were trained to recognize these stages. Furthermore, these models were evaluated according to their classification accuracy measured by their hit ratio. Even though classification capacity was critical to discriminate between models, emphasis was also placed on whether the developed models can be easily understood by the end users.Based on the results reported, we believe that the approach adopted was successful in identifying stages and cycles in the BDI, with an average power of classification of 72% in an out-of-sample set. Additional pieces of interesting knowledge that have been identified include the fact that during the recent years the BDI has been more linked in the model with the copper prices, and that usually stock market prices have a limited effect on it.We believe that the classifiers were able to replicate the approach taken by human beings of interpreting the shapes of the BDI, strength that is remarkable considering the evident cyclic character that the BDI showed from January, 1985 to more or less December, 2000, and the increase that followed after the break point.

Return lead–lag and volatility transmission in shipping freight markets

This study investigates the return lead–lag and volatility transmission between dry bulk shipping and container shipping freight markets over the period before, during and after the 2008 financial tsunami. Both cointegration analysis and the Granger causality test are applied to explore the lead–lag relationship between the Baltic dry index (BDI) and the China containerized freight index (CCFI). Besides, in the study we employed GARCH–BEKK model, which allows for transmission in freight volatility. On the whole, the empirical results show that the BDI reflects the economic climate earlier than the CCFI during the financial tsunami, whereas the CCFI leads the BDI after the financial tsunami. The price formation hypothesis could well explain the relationship. Moreover, volatility spillovers are found in most subperiods. The dynamics of the conditional volatilities differ, but causality links in the variance are found to be strong and bidirectional in normal periods, and unidirectional during the financial tsunami. Therefore, the occurrence of the financial tsunami could be regarded as an interference factor.

Baltic Dry Index and the democratic window of opportunity

In their seminal paper, Brückner and Ciccone (2011) document that a significant effect of democratic change may be triggered by negative transitory economic shocks, and that rainfall can open a democratic window of opportunity in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). As a complement, this paper uses within-country variation in the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) as a source of transitory negative income shocks to SSA countries. The BDI reflects the cost of utilizing dry bulk carriers, which are specially designed vessels for transporting primary goods internationally, where these goods dominate the output and export sectors of the SSA economies. We find that positive BDI cost shocks are followed by significant contraction in income through trade channel and significant improvement in democratic institutions, where BDI can open a window of opportunity for democratic improvement. Instrumental variables estimates indicate that following a negative income shock of one percentage point, democracy scores improve by around 4–5 percentage points on average.

An approach for Baltic Dry Index analysis based on empirical mode decomposition

The bulk shipping market is seasonal, cyclical and highly volatile. Due to the nonstationary and nonlinear nature of price series and the complexity of influencing factors, it is difficult to analyse the fluctuations in the bulk shipping market. In this study, a method based on empirical mode decomposition (EMD) is proposed to investigate the volatility of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI). In this method, the original freight price series is decomposed into several independent intrinsic modes, using EMD first. Then, the intrinsic modes are composed into three components: short-term fluctuations caused by normal market activities, the effect of extreme events and a long-term trend. Numerical experiments indicate that the proposed method can effectively reveal the characteristics of bulk freight price series with different economic meanings and decrease error accumulation. Meanwhile, by decomposition of intrinsic modes, the complexity of the model formulation can be controlled and the operability of the model can be improved.