Ballistic Missile Defense System Research Articles

Group-Fusion One-Dimensional Convolutional Neural Network for Ballistic Target High-Resolution Range Profile Recognition with Layer-Wise Auxiliary Classifiers

Ballistic missile defense systems require accurate target recognition technology. Effective feature extraction is crucial for this purpose. The deep convolutional neural network (CNN) has proven to be an effective method for recognizing high-resolution range profiles (HRRPs) of ballistic targets. It excels in perceiving local features and extracting robust features. However, the standard CNN's fully connected manner results in high computational complexity, which is unsuitable for deployment in real-time missile defense systems with stringent performance requirements. To address the issue of computational complexity in HRRP recognition based on the standard one-dimensional CNN (1DCNN), we propose a lightweight network called group-fusion 1DCNN with layer-wise auxiliary classifiers (GFAC-1DCNN). GFAC-1DCNN employs group convolution (G-Conv) instead of standard convolution to effectively reduce model complexity. Simply using G-Conv, however, may decrease model recognition accuracy due to the lack of information flow between feature maps generated by each G-Conv. To overcome this limitation, we introduce a linear fusion layer to combine the output features of G-Convs, thereby improving recognition accuracy. Additionally, besides the main classifier at the deepest layer, we construct layer-wise auxiliary classifiers for different hierarchical features. The results from all classifiers are then fused for comprehensive target recognition. Extensive experiments demonstrate that GFAC-1DCNN with such simple and effective techniques achieves higher overall testing accuracy than state-of-the-art ballistic target HRRP recognition models, while significantly reducing model complexity. It also exhibits a higher recall rate for warhead recognition compared to other methods. Based on these compelling results, we believe this work is valuable in reducing workload and enhancing missile interception rates in missile defense systems.

Outer Space: From Sanctuary to Warfighting Domain?

Abstract At the early stage of humankind’s Space Age, the former Union of Soviet Socialist Republics and the United States of America showed an inclination to non-militarize outer space, but distrust also prompted them to carry out a series of high-altitude nuclear tests. In the end, while the non-militarization aspiration materialized on celestial bodies, in the outer void space between them only Weapons of Mass Destruction were prohibited. The last few decades have witnessed the incremental militarization of the Earth orbits. The initial phase of militarization, primarily for surveillance and early warning, was conducive to international peace and security. It is in the next phase, when space systems were integrated into warfighting capabilities and Ballistic Missile Defense systems, that outer space embarked on its reduction into a domain of conflicts. This trend was subtle in the immediate aftermath of the Cold War, and didn’t become clear until the new millennium when new space powers emerged. Today, space-based weapons and terrestrial Anti-Satellite Weapons (ASATs) form the primary security concerns for space powers, depending on their relative space capability. The disparity is difficult to reconcile, putting space arms control literally on a halt. As States with counter-space capability are also highly reliant on space, there is a growing voluntary moratorium against the test and use of debris-generating ASATs and conflicts in space are likely to take an electronic and/or cyber form. The recent rise of the strategy of “deterrence and superiority” in space, however, may distract from the formation of this voluntary moratorium, aggravate an arms race in outer space, and even increase the risk of a full-scale conflict in space.

Challenges for the Conventional Deterrence of Pakistan in the Post 2019 Security Situations: Options and Choices

The study aims at discussing the changing dynamics of conventional deterrence in South Asia especially after the Pulwama-Balakot incident of 2019. The study is evaluated through Descriptive, Exploratory and Predictive data analysis approach. For elaborating different aspects of the study, both primary and secondary data was used. The study conducted in-depth interviews of the experts on the strategic and nuclear environment of the South Asian region. The study is divided in to three parts. In first part of the study, India-Pakistan relations since their independence in 1947 have been discussed. It was followed by discussing how Indian military strategic thinking against Pakistan has been changed from being defensive in Sunderji Doctrine (SD) of 1987 to offensive in the Cold Start Doctrine (CSD) of 2004 and then to the Land Warfare Doctrine (LWD) of 2018. The study then continues on discussing how India has crossed the international border line and conducted so-called surgical strikes inside Pakistani territory after a militant attack on the Indian paramilitary troops in Indian Occupied Kashmir (IoK) in 2019 and how Pakistan responded to the Indian aggression with a military operation codenamed “Operation Swift Retort”. The second part of the study is related to the Indian acquisition of modern sophisticated weaponry from the great powers like US, Israel, Russia etc. and the possible impacts of these weapons systems on the strategic stability of Pakistan. How the weapon systems like Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) system, Rafale fighter jets, Anti-Tank Guided Missiles (ATGM), Nuclear Submarine, P8-I Antisubmarine aircraft, Apache attack helicopter, Spy satellites and the armed Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) will pose threats to Pakistan, was main theme of the second part of the study. The possibility of any future war between India and Pakistan was also discussed in this section. Third section of the study was related to the possible options for Pakistan to counter the growing Indian conventional superiority. It was discussed that Pakistan should improve its long-range air defense system, improve the speed, lethality and range of its missiles, acquire or develop nuclear submarine and fifth generation aircrafts, improve Intelligence Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities along with the acquisition of attack helicopters and enhancing the endurance and range of armed UAVs to counter any future Indian aggression. Overall the Indian military modernization, the acquisition and procurement of modern sophisticated weaponry was discussed in the study. How negatively it will impact Pakistan and what options and choices are available with Pakistan to counter it, was the basic theme of the study. It was also thoroughly examined that Pakistan’s nuclear weapons are not for wars, but it’s the guarantor of peace in South Asia. It was also examined that Pakistan will never allow any aggression to disturb its strategic stability and will never hesitate to ensure its strategic stability and the basic sovereignty as a state at any cost, even by using its nuclear weapons as a last resort in case of failure of its conventional weapons.

Ballistic Target Recognition Based on 4-D Point Cloud Using Randomized Stepped Frequency Radar

Ballistic target recognition (BTR) is critical to the ballistic missile defense system. The challenge of this task is to distinguish warheads from numerous unknown confusing targets within a short observing time. The micromotion feature is proved to be effective for this task. However, traditional methods need a long observing time to acquire enough information for the recognition because of using low-dimensional features. In addition, these model-driven methods cannot handle irregular ballistic targets, such as debris. In this article, we propose a BTR scheme, which characterizes the micromotion features with a higher dimensional representation, i.e., the time–range–velocity–power 4-D point cloud, using the randomized stepped frequency radar. The higher dimensional information contained in the 4-D point cloud can reduce the required observing time. Besides, this scheme combines the model-driven method with a data-driven deep neural network to meet the challenge of model mismatch caused by irregular targets. As a result, the proposed BTR scheme is time efficient and robust, which has been proved on an electromagnetic simulation dataset.

Indo-Israel Defence Relationship: Implications on Pakistan’s Security Policies

The strategic partnership between India and Israel is well established and improving over time. This defence-based cooperation is escalating the already existing arms competition in the South Asian region resulting in action-reaction dynamics owing to the security competition between India and Pakistan. India-Israel increasing defence collaboration in hi-tech weapon systems including the Air and Ballistic Missile Defence system and serious facelift of the Indian military courtesy of Israeli defence firms is creating a security dilemma leading to greater security concerns for Pakistan in particular and other neighbouring nations in general. The deep-rooted mode of cooperation between India and Israel in the space programme would give the Indian military dominance in information warfare. The counterterrorism and intelligence sharing between the two would help India add network-centric and electronic warfare capabilities and learn modern techniques for the contemporary combat environment. This defence partnership is likely to create a strategic imbalance in the region, compelling neighbouring Pakistan (and others) to look for countermeasures. Resultantly, Pakistan’s counter-effort to secure itself is enhancing arms competition. This paper will highlight the areas of defence cooperation between India and Israel and will signify it’s implication over Pakistan and counter measures required.

Missile Race in South Asia: Security Challenges for Pakistan in the 21st Century

The article assesses the nature of missile competition between India and Pakistan and how it impacts deterrence and strategic stability in South Asia. It also analyses how their respective ballistic and cruise missile programmes developed. Taking the action-reaction model of arms racing, it concludes that there is indeed such a dynamic at play between the two countries. The missiles competition is very much linked to the nuclear competition as well. India’s Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD) system also factors into the competitions, whereby Pakistan was forced to develop missiles that could saturate and defeat it. The missile and nuclear competition has an overall negative impact on deterrence and strategic stability in South Asia. Pakistan’s biggest security challenge is to achieve security and deterrence against a hostile India without falling into the trap of an economically ruinous arms race. 

An Improved Phase-Derived Range Method Based on High-Order Multi-Frame Track-Before-Detect for Warhead Detection

It is crucial for a ballistic missile defense system to discriminate the true warhead from decoys. Although a decoy has a similar shape to the warhead, it is believed that the true warhead can be separated by its micro-Doppler features introduced by the precession and nutation. As is well known, the accuracy of the phase-derived range method, to extract micro-Doppler curves, can reach sub-wavelength. However, it suffers from an inefficiency of energy integration and high computational costs. In this paper, a novel phase-derived range method, using high-order multi-frame track-before-detect is proposed for micro-Doppler curve extraction under a low signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). First, the sinusoidal micro-Doppler range sequence is treated as the state, and the dynamic model is described as a Markov chain to obtain the envelopes and then the ambiguous phases. Instead of processing the whole frames, the proposed method only processes the latest frame at an arbitrary given time, which reduces the computational costs. Then, the correlation of all pairs of adjacent pulses is calculated along the slow time dimension to find the number of cells that the point scatterer crosses, which can be further used in phase unwrapping. Finally, the phase-derived range method is employed to get the micro-Doppler curves. Simulation results show that the proposed method is capable of extracting the micro-Doppler curves with sub-wavelength accuracy, even if SNR = −15 dB, with a lower computational cost.

CHINA’S NUCLEAR POLICY: A REALISTIC ASSESSMENT

This research paper focuses on the development, management, and execution of nuclear policies and strategies in China. Chinese nuclear policy has always been a center of discussion for military officials and researchers worldwide. Considering its internal and external security situation and strategic perceptions, China has made some crucial adjustments in its nuclear deterrent to cope with future threats and maintain the diminutive stature among nuclear powers. The issue of Taiwan and ballistic missile defense systems(BMDs) of India and USA may raise China’s critical thinking in the coming future for which it must change its policy of No First Use (NFU) and must shift its nuclear intentions from narrow to limited nuclear deterrent posture. Due to changed cultural perspectives, China has its specific nuclear strategy that involves the minimum utility of nuclear weapons. Factors involved in the evolution of Chinese nuclear strategy are in line with technological modernization. However, China is not willing to leave adherence from its NFU policy. China possesses a limited capacity of nuclear experts, a comparatively lesser quantity of nuclear installations, and a relatively lower number of nuclear weapons because it mainly focuses on the “lean and effective” quality of its strategic nuclear approach. Keywords: Nuclear policy, strategic perceptions, China, security environment.

Conceptualizing India’s evolving nuclear strategy under the essentials of minimum deterrence: Limitations and challenges

As India intends to complete its ambitious deterrent force projects such as the development of Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) system, Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs), Multiple Independently Reentry Vehicles (MIRVs), nuclear powered submarines, aircraft carrier, and a number of nuclear reactors as part of its would-be modified Draft Nuclear Doctrine (DND), it is imperative to analyze whether or not India’s shift in its deterrent force posture including that of ambitious deterrent force projects remains consistent with minimum deterrence India earlier conceptualized. This article conceptualizes the rationale of India’s evolving nuclear strategy under the conceptual essentials of minimum deterrence and the limitations to and challenges of India’s ambitious deterrence force posture. Also, the article explores the key factors how and why India might be shifting away from its deterrent force posturing it earlier conceived. However, this article finds that India may not remain consistent with its broader nuclear policy of minimum deterrence conceptualized in its earlier nuclear drafts if it continues to successfully develop these mega deterrent force projects bolstered by sophisticated delivery systems amidst India’s increasing strategic partnership with the US.

An Illusion of the Indian Balistic Missile Defence System

In this paper, the Researcher has endeavored to test the hypothesis that the Indian ballistic missile defense system (BMDS) erodes the sense of mutual vulnerability. It seems that the BMDS provides a false sense of security to India. For this reason it is felt that the Cold Start Doctrine (CSD) can therefore be launched against Pakistan in an attempt to actualize a disarming strike. Consequentially, the BMDS disturbs the India-Pakistan crisis and deterrence stability. Indian policymakers should realize that firstly, the operationalization of the CSD crosses Pakistan’s nuclear threshold and it requires Islamabad to unleash strategic and tactical nuclear weapons (TNWs); secondly, the Pak-India crisis and deterrence stability is functional due to the sense of mutual vulnerability; thirdly, the credibility of nuclear deterrence has not been tested and fourthly, the deterrence stability solidified the crisis and strategic stability. The BMDS deployment in South Asia will certainly result first in quantitative and qualitative nuclear proliferation; second, it weakens the NPT and; third, it may break the nuclear taboo based on non-use of nuclear weapons. India needs to understand that Pak-India can survive the long persisting threat of conventional and nuclear war because of the mutual vulnerability of counter value and counterforce targets.

Optimal Arrangement of Missile Defense Systems Considering Kill Probability

This paper proposes an optimal arrangement framework of ballistic missile defense systems, such as a launcher and radar to maximize the survivability of protected assets. In order to solve the optimization problem through a probabilistic approach, we derive a single shot kill probability (SSKP) model based on engagement geometries, trajectory characteristic of an interceptor and a ballistic missile, and error models embedded in both an interceptor and radar. This SSKP model is useful to predict a performance of defense systems in early design phase or to draw requirements of subsystems. After an SSKP model is derived, we present a framework to calculate the survivability of protected assets. In the framework, we establish a concept of survivability distributions of the protected assets, which vary with the arrangement of defense systems. By using the survivability distributions for given protected assets, the optimal location of a launcher and radar can be derived. The potential significance of the proposed framework is that it can be directly applicable in real defense systems by just substituting SSKP models derived in this paper with more sophisticatedly derived SSKP distributions. Finally, the optimal arrangements are derived by the proposed framework and the effectiveness of the results is evaluated through various case studies.

The US Anti-Missile Potential in Asia-Pacific

The USA considers missile potentials of Russia, China, Iran and North Korea as the main sources of threats to their national security. In the early 2000s following the withdrawal from the Soviet-American ABM Treaty the US began to deploy a global ballistic missile defense system to protect their “homeland, US forces abroad and its allies” from potential and real threats. The set of basic elements of a multi-layer ballistic missile defense is generally the same, its architecture is always adapted to the local conditions of the regions of deployment and specific tasks. Their common designation is the ability to work as subsystems within an integrated, global in scope antiballistic missile defense system controlled by the United States. In the Asia-Pacific region, the United States is actively engaging its regional allies Australia, South Korea and Japan in a joint effort to build-up ABM capabilities while simultaneously increasing its military-strategic presence in the region. Moscow strongly opposes the program considering it as potential threat to the effectiveness of the Russian strategic nuclear forces and undermining strategic stability and considers emergence the ballistic missile subsystems in Europe and the Asian-Pacific Region as a direct threat to its security. US ABM policy provokes the accelerated development by China and the DPRK of ballistic missile delivery systems, encourages Russia to create new weapon systems that are guaranteed to be able to overcome any existing and future missile defense.

Влияние систем ПРО на стратегическую стабильность и перспективы ядерного разоружения

For many decades, in terms of strategic stability, ballistic missile defense systems developed and deployed by the Soviet Union/Russia and the United States have been seen as potentially destabilizing. However, although significant technological progress has been achieved in creating ballistic missile interception systems and global information network, over 60 years of experience in the development and flight testing have confirmed the impossibility of protecting the countries’ territory from massive nuclear strikes. It is possible to intercept only a single missile or an extremely small number of them. An objective analysis of the state and effectiveness of existing and potential future characteristics of missile defense systems suggests that their impact on the nuclear deterrence capability of Russia and the United States is virtually absent and does not hinder the negotiation processes aimed at limiting strategic offensive arms. That being said, missile defense systems have a potential to significantly affect regional stability and, depending on the situation, have both stabilizing and destabilizing effect on the military and political landscape. It is therefore incumbent upon the UN Security Council and other international organizations to continuously monitor regional stability in order to be able to react promptly and prevent negative development of the situation. Acknowledgements. The article has been supported by a grant of the Russian Science Foundation (project № 18-18-00463).

Modern assumptions of the American ballistic missile defence system against the background of historical concepts and programmes

<i>The issue of missile defence has been present in American policy for over 70 years and is constantly subject to research and the search for new technologies. Nowadays, the proliferation of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles, as well as the growing threat from the so-called “rogue states” have caused the inevitable development of the missile defence strategy. On the basis of historical programmes and the results of contemporary research, the concept of a Ballistic Missile Defence System was created. The system is based on the principles of indivisibility of the security of the Alliance and NATO solidarity, fair sharing of risk and burdens as well as taking on reasonable challenges. One of the components of the system is the European Phase Adaptive Approach, which was designed to protect American allies and resources in the European region from the growing rocket threat.</i><br><br> <i>This paper analyses the genesis of ballistic missile defence and what its development tendencies are. The article contains a presentation of the essence of the US Ballistic Missile Defence System, as well as its history and suspended programmes. The concept of multilayered defence has been outlined, as have the technical details of the system’s components and its location and operational status.</i>

Introduction: The great missile defense dilemma

In many ways, the US ballistic missile defense system lies at the center of the world’s nuclear weapons dilemma. The United States government contends the system – which includes ground-based and s...

Research on detection mission scheduling strategy for the LEO constellation to multiple targets

The space-based infrared LEO constellation has the ability of surveillance and tracking of ballistic missiles during entire phases, which has played an important role in the ballistic missile defense system (BMDS). This paper focuses on the scheduling strategy for the LEO constellation to multiple targets. The concept of average contribution of the satellite is firstly introduced, transforming the dynamic scheduling process to continuous intervals. The switching frequency and relaxation degree are also considered as decision variables. Then the multilayer coding genetic algorithm is improved in order to solve the scheduling problem. Finally, a scheduling demonstration validates the correctness and effectiveness of the presented method. The theory analysis and simulation results of this paper can provide powerful support for future design of the LEO constellation and research on the BMDS.

India's Ballistic Missile Defense: Implications for South Asian Deterrence Stability

A single factor may not fully explain the rationale for India's quest for a Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) system. Security, prestige, and an aspiration for power projection are predominant factor...

The Palgrave Handbook of Society, Culture, and Outer Space

The Palgrave Handbook of Society, Culture, and Outer Space

The Integration of Simulation Model for Anti-Missile Process Based on a DDS Real-Time Platform

The framework of simulating experiment based on a real-time platform has been built by using DDS protocol. To realize the whole process simulation model integration and deduction of target detection, tracking, identification, interception and data communication of ballistic missile defense system, the communication control, system control and human-computer interaction mode based on real time network platform have been implemented in this paper. The simulation framework can effectively integrate all kinds of physical, semi physical and mathematical simulation models, and is compatible and extended.

Russian Threat Perception and the Ballistic Missile Defense System

ABSTRACTDespite the Cold War ending over 20 years ago, the Russian Federation is making great efforts to modernize its strategic offensive and defensive capabilities. Although it is tempting to associate this modernization with recent US/NATO tensions, Russia’s efforts to modernize its strategic assets has much more to do with two US programs started in the previous decade, the Ballistic Missile Defense System and Prompt Global Strike programs. The reasoning behind this perception of threat is keyed to Russian thinking on how these programs could undermine Russia’s strategic deterrence capabilities as these US programs mature. Russian efforts to modernize its strategic nuclear forces, non-strategic nuclear forces, strategic non-nuclear forces, and certain electronic warfare and space-based capabilities may directly be attributed to overcoming these US programs.