Balassa-Samuelson Model Research Articles

Capital–Labor Ratios and Total Factor Productivity in the Balassa–Samuelson Model

The paper investigates the relationship between sectoral capital–labor ratios and total factor productivity (TFP) in the context of the Balassa–Samuelson model. It is shown that, under certain assumptions, the model implies that both traded‐ and nontraded‐goods sectors’ capital–labor ratios should be cointegrated with the traded‐goods sector’s TFP. Evidence from an intersectoral database for 14 OECD countries broadly supports this implication of the model. In addition to shedding light on the evolution of sectoral capital–labor ratios, the results also alleviate concerns regarding the reliability of capital stock data.

A simple test for PPP among traded goods

The so-called Harrod–Balassa–Samuelson model implies that relative prices of non-traded goods may be nonstationary and, hence, that PPP should preferably be tested on real exchange rates based on prices of traded goods only. A simple test for PPP among traded goods is proposed that can be applied to real exchange rates based on prices of all (that is, both traded and non-traded) goods. The study shows through simulations that the test is reliable for a sample size commonly considered in practice. Upon applying the test to bilateral real exchange rates based on the general CPI among a group of industrialized countries during the post Bretton Woods period, we find little evidence in favour of PPP among traded goods. This does not change when we use real exchange rates based on various components of the CPI.

Real Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence from 15 OECD Countries

In an extended Balassa–Samuelson model, long-run real exchange rates are determined by relative productivity and terms of trade. We present evidence of systematic long-run relationships between these fundamental variables and real exchange rates in a data set covering 15 OECD countries from 1960 to 1996. High relative productivity is associated with real exchange rate appreciations in most cases. There is less support for the hypothesis that the terms of trade affect equilibrium real exchange rates.

International monetary arrangements in the Asia-Pacific before and after

This paper assesses the characteristics and policy implications of the international monetary arrangements in the Asia-Pacific pre- and post-July 1997. It first examines the literature on speculative attacks on fixed and managed exchange rate regimes. Since these speculative attacks are more likely to be successful when financial markets are well integrated, it then assesses the degree of financial market integration in the region. Furthermore, as the empirical evidence also suggests a possible role for real exchange rate overvaluation, we examine the evidence regarding misalignment. Using a purchasing power parity (PPP) criterion and a criterion based on a Balassa-Samuelson model, we find mixed evidence of exchange rate overvaluation. Given that our ability to determine the equilibrium real exchange rate is so limited, we caution against a return to a fixed or highly managed exchange rate regime. Finally, we assess how monetary policy and exchange rate policy have interacted over the pre- and post-crisis periods, using a monetary model of exchange rates. JEL classification: F31; F33; F34

Real Exchange Rate Trends and Growth: A Model of East Asia

In contrast to the Balassa–Samuelson hypothesis, many fast‐growing Asian countries have experienced little trend real exchange rate appreciation, or even depreciation. Moreover, their long‐run real exchange rate trend seems to be dominated by movements in traded goods prices. A model is developed which is consistent with these observations. As in the Balassa–Samuelson model, productivity growth is concentrated in the traded goods sector. Nevertheless the real exchange rate may exhibit trend depreciation, driven by persistent deviations in the price of traded goods from those in the reference country. The key feature of the model is the presence of endogenous productivity growth in the distribution services sector.

Relative labor productivity and the real exchange rate in the long run: evidence for a panel of OECD countries

The Balassa-Samuelson model, which explains real exchange rate movements in terms of sectoral productivities, rests on two components. First, it implies that the relative price of non-traded goods in each country should reflect the relative productivity of labor in the traded and non-traded goods sectors. Second, it assumes purchasing power parity holds for traded goods. We test both of these using a panel of OECD countries. Our results suggest that relative prices generally reflect relative labor productivities in the long run. The evidence on purchasing power parity in traded goods is less favorable, at least when we look at US dollar exchange rates.

Bipolar affective disorder: I. The CT findings in various subgroups

This paper assesses the characteristics and policy implications of the international monetary arrangements in the Asia-Pacific pre- and post-July 1997. It first examines the literature on speculative attacks on fixed and managed exchange rate regimes. Since these speculative attacks are more likely to be successful when financial markets are well integrated, it then assesses the degree of financial market integration in the region. Furthermore, as the empirical evidence also suggests a possible role for real exchange rate overvaluation, we examine the evidence regarding misalignment. Using a purchasing power parity (PPP) criterion and a criterion based on a Balassa-Samuelson model, we find mixed evidence of exchange rate overvaluation. Given that our ability to determine the equilibrium real exchange rate is so limited, we caution against a return to a fixed or highly managed exchange rate regime. Finally, we assess how monetary policy and exchange rate policy have interacted over the pre- and post-crisis periods, using a monetary model of exchange rates. JEL classification: F31; F33; F34

Do Long-Run Productivity Differentials Explain Long-Run Real Exchange Rates?

We develop a two-country, balanced-growth intertemporal general equilibrium model to examine two predictions of the Balassa-Samuelson model, namely that (i) productivity differentials determine the domestic relative price of nontradables and (ii) deviations from purchasing power parity reflect differences in the relative price of nontradables. In our model, the equilibrium relative price of nontradables along the long-run balanced-growth path is determined by the ratio of the marginal products of labor in the tradable and nontradable sectors. The empirical relevance of the Balassa-Samuelson predictions is examined using the Hodrick-Prescott filter to extract long-run components from a panel database for fourteen OECD countries. The evidence indicates that labor productivity differentials do explain long-run, cross-country differences in relative prices. The predicted relative prices, however, are of little help in explaining long-run deviations from purchasing power parity.

Do Long-Run Productivity Differentials Explain Long-Run Real Exchange Rates?

We develop a two-country, balanced-growth intertemporal general equilibrium model to examine two predictions of the Balassa-Samuelson model, namely that (i) productivity differentials determine the domestic relative price of nontradables and (ii) deviations from purchasing power parity reflect differences in the relative price of nontradables. In our model, the equilibrium relative price of nontradables along the long-run balanced-growth path is determined by the ratio of the marginal products of labor in the tradable and nontradable sectors. The empirical relevance of the Balassa-Samuelson predictions is examined using the Hodrick-Prescott filter to extract long-run components from a panel database for fourteen OECD countries. The evidence indicates that labor productivity differentials do explain long-run, cross-country differences in relative prices. The predicted relative prices, however, are of little help in explaining long-run deviations from purchasing power parity.