Trade Balance Research Articles

Currencies and culture: An amusing journey into the impacts of exchange rates on global creative industries

AbstractThis paper examines the impact of exchange rate changes on cultural services trade balances in China, Japan, the United States, United Kingdom, France, and Germany from 2006 to 2015. These six countries represent dominant players whose experiences reflect global impacts. Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models test for J‐curve effects. Cultural distance matrices combined with cluster analysis explore how cultural proximity influences trade structures. Results demonstrate a J‐curve effect in China contrasting with a reverse J‐curve in the United States. China and Japan form one cultural trade cluster distinct from a Western bloc of the United States, United Kingdom, and France. This signifies emerging economies have developed unique cultural trade models. The research enriches empirical evidence on exchange rate impacts for understudied cultural services trade. Introducing cultural distance provides a novel perspective and policy insights for emerging economies.

Analysis of Trade Competitiveness of the World s Leading Textiles Exporters by Hybrid MCDM Methods

Purpose –This paper demonstrates the application of the IDOCRIW-based MABAC and MAIRCA methods in the evaluation of the trade competitiveness of the top fifteen textiles exporters in the world. Design/methodology/approach –The trade competitiveness index was used for assessing the trade competitiveness of exporters in the textile industry. The IDOCRIW method was used to obtain the weight of criteria. The analysis of the trade competitiveness of exporters was carried out using the new multi-criteria methods, namely the MABAC (Multi-Attributive Border Approximation area Comparison) and the MAIRCA (Multi-Atributive Ideal-Real Comparative Analysis). Findings –According to the results obtained by the IDOCRIW method, share in the world market (SWM) and net exports (NEX) were determined as the most and least important criteria with weight values of 0,3297 and 0,0816, respectively. After determining the criteria weight, the alternatives were ranked using the MABAC and MAIRCA methods. The results for both methods indicate that China, Italy, Luxembourg, Belgium, and Spain have the highest trade competitiveness, while Croatia, Ireland, the Republic of Cyprus, Malta, and Mexico have the lowest trade competitiveness in the textile industry. The findings demonstrated that MABAC and MAIRCA provided consistent solutions for ranking the alternatives. Additionally, the consistency and robustness of the results were tested using two different scenarios. The overall results revealed that China and Italy have the best trade competitiveness in the textile industry. Discussion –As expected, China and the European Unioun (EU) countries have the highest trade competitiveness in the world’s textile industry. It can also be stated the textile industry is strategic sector for both the EU countries and China.

Growth of GDP and Foreign Trade of Nepal: Trend analysis

It is clear that the total size of the economy and the total volume of trade have been increasing in Nepal. Both export trade and import trade contribute to economic growth, but the trade deficit increased rapidly over two decades. This paper investigates the trend analysis of foreign trade and GDP growth of Nepal during the last two decades. This paper has used annual statistical data from fiscal year 2001/02 to 2022/ 23 to analyze the trend of GDP growth and foreign trade of Nepal. Obviously, export and import trade play a crucial role in the economic growth of Nepal, but considering the fact of serious trade deficit, policy implications should be concentrated on exportoriented economic growth rather than import-oriented economic growth.

Tracing two decades of carbon emissions using a network approach

According to the guidelines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, carbon emissions are attributed to the producers of goods and services. This approach has been challenged by recent literature, advocating an attribution criterion based on consumers, i.e. accounting for the carbon embedded into the goods imported by each country. Quantifying the effectiveness of such a consumption-based accounting requires understanding the complex structure of the graph induced by the flows of emissions between world countries. To this aim, we have considered a balanced panel of a hundred of countries and constructed the corresponding Carbon Trade Network for each of the past twenty years. Our analysis highlights the tendency of each country to behave either as a ‘net producer’—or ‘net exporter’—of emissions or as a ‘net consumer’—or ‘net importer’—of emissions; besides, it reveals the presence of an unexpected, positive feedback: despite individual exchanges having become less carbon-intensive, the increasing trade activity has ultimately risen the amount of emissions directed from ‘net exporters’ towards ‘net importers’. Adopting a consumption-aware accounting would re-distribute responsibility between these two groups, possibly reducing disparities.

Production- and consumption-based emissions in carbon exporters and importers: A large panel data analysis for the EKC hypothesis

The Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis has become a widely used framework for the investigation of the income-environment nexus. However, the literature in this field is biased toward the reliance on production-based carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions (PBE) as a proxy for environmental degradation. This production perspective ignores the carbon emissions embedded in trade, which are estimated to make up approximately a quarter of total global emissions. Therefore, the carbon leakage issue makes consumption-based CO2 emissions (CBE) accounting vital for better understanding the relationship between income and carbon emissions. In this study, we comparatively investigate the EKC pattern based on both PBE and CBE for a sample of 85 countries over the period between 1990 and 2020. In doing so, we investigate whether different emission accounting methods have an impact on the EKC pattern and examine how this impact differs depending on whether the countries are net importers or exporters of emissions embedded in trade. To this end, we first endogenously classify countries based on the club convergence approach proposed by Phillips & Sul [1] and obtain country groups such as those that are net exporters or importers of CO2 emissions. Using the system generalized method of moments (SGMM) estimator, we test the validity of the EKC hypothesis in the second step and identify the main driving forces behind the changes in PBE and CBE for each convergent club by controlling the effect of trade and urbanization. Therefore, for the first time, we compare the EKC hypothesis based on both PBE and CBE for a large sample of countries that are endogenously divided into different groups, and investigate the potential impact of alternative emission accounting approaches and the status of being net exporters or importers of CO2 emissions on the EKC pattern. The findings support the different patterns for PBE and CBE: while the EKC hypothesis is supported for both PBE and CBE for countries that are net importers of emissions, neither PBE nor CBE show an inverted U-shaped relationship with income for countries that are net exporters of emissions. These results strongly support the need for coordination in policies to reduce CO2 emissions between importers and exporters of hydrocarbons and energy-intensive goods.

Evaluation of Comparative Advantages of Trade in Service in Türkiye with RCA and TBI Indices

Technological developments in the last quarter century and the increase in the service sector in international trade enable schools to develop their foreign trade policies for service trade. To achieve a competitive advantage in this extended family service trade, it is necessary to determine the countries' comparative advantages. To choose the comparative advantage of Turkiye's service sector in this country between 2013-2021, the TBI index, which was used by RCA and supported the index results, was also included in the study. The data obtained from the survey show that Turkiye has a comparative advantage in maintenance and repair, transportation, travel, insurance and pension, and government goods and services in the relevant period. However, it is not generally observed during the elapsed time in government goods and services and insurance and pension services. On the other hand, while Turkiye has a net exporter position in manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others, transportation, travel, and construction services, it is also a net exporter in insurance and pension, financial services, charges for the use of intellectual property, telecommunications, computer, and information processing and government goods and services during the relevant period—Importer position. However, some services remain net importers or exporters throughout the period. These results are more sensitive than macro and micro environmental conditions.
 Key Words: Trade in Services, Comparative Advanteges, RCA Index, TBI Index, Türkiye
 JEL Classification: F14

China’s rise and the United States’ response: implications for the global order and New Zealand/Aotearoa. Part I: Using uneven and combined development theory to explain China’s rise

ABSTRACT Part One of this article provides a novel condensed Marxist account of China’s rapid economic growth which underpins its rising geopolitical and military power. In the vast literature on China’s rise, pro-market reforms and/or state policy-making and interventionism are emphasised as causes, depending on whether a neoliberal or neomercantilist perspective is adopted. Although these accounts contain important elements of truth, Marxist economic theory and the theory of uneven and combined development emphasise the central role played by China’s comparatively high rates of exploitation and profitability in fuelling rapid economic growth. This Marxist perspective informs a critical analysis of China’s hybrid neoliberal policy regime, regionally decentralised system of government, huge trade surpluses and foreign currency reserves, inflows of foreign direct investment, state investment in infrastructure, rising socio-economic inequality, poor social provision especially of public health care, popular support for and potential sources of opposition to the CCP regime, and military modernisation.

Trade Beyond Borders: Decoding India-China Economic Relations

India and China are prominent players in the rapidly growing economies of Asia. With a shared border spanning 3488 kilometers, the two nations have historically grappled with border disputes, leading to periodic violent clashes between their respective military forces. These skirmishes often evoke strong sentiments among the Indian populace, resulting in intensified boycotts of Chinese goods as a form of protest and economic reprisal. This paper aims to critically examine the trade relations between India and China, particularly in the context of trade restrictions on products originating from China, within the framework of their membership in the World Trade Organization (WTO). Drawing on data sourced from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), trade indices such as the Export Share Index, Import Share Index, Import Category Index, and Origin Specific Import Category Index are calculated to shed light on the bilateral trade dynamics, mutual economic interdependence, and trade balance from the perspective of India. Analysis reveals a significant trade deficit for India vis-à-vis China, which has surged at an annual rate of 23.46 percent between 1995 and 2022. India's reliance on China extends beyond manufactured goods to encompass essential raw materials, particularly in sectors such as pharmaceuticals. Notably, China serves as the primary source for 23 out of 260 items and a major contributor to over 38 additional items in India's import portfolio. Rather than resorting to a trade war with China, which could yield adverse effects for both nations, it is suggested that India focus on bolstering infrastructure development, fostering a conducive business environment, improving ease of doing business, and investing in healthcare and education sectors. Such measures aim to stimulate industrial growth, harness skilled labor resources, and enhance employment opportunities for the populace at large.

Research on the Agro-Food Trade Balance of Romania

Research on the Agro-Food Trade Balance of Romania

Prediction of Sino-Korean cultural product trade based on one-dimensional convolutional neural network and support vector machine

This study explores a predictive approach using a combination of a one-dimensional convolutional neural network and support vector machine to enhance the management of cultural product trade between China and South Korea, addressing the trade deficit challenge. The methodology involves the collection and categorization of diverse data related to the trade of cultural products between the two countries, identifying data mining directions. The research incorporates the design of association rule functions to identify viable data sources, and employs a hybrid data clustering algorithm integrating technology and spectral clustering to cluster available data. The features extracted from the data mining process are utilized as learning samples for trade prediction. Both a one-dimensional convolutional neural network and support vector machine are employed to model and predict cultural product trade between China and South Korea. Experimental results demonstrate the method’s accuracy in predicting trade situations under parameterized conditions. Throughout the prediction process, credibility measurement values and controllable correlation degrees consistently exceed 19 and 12.5, respectively, while uncertainty discrimination degrees and error coefficients remain below 12 and 6.

Generalized connectivity in cubic fuzzy graphs with application in the trade deficit problem

Cubic fuzzy graphs (CFGs) offer greater utility as compared to interval-valued fuzzy graphs and fuzzy graphs due to their ability to represent the degree of membership for vertices and edges using both interval and fuzzy number forms. The significance of these concepts motivates us to analyze and interpret intricate networks, enabling more effective decision making and optimization in various domains, including transportation, social networks, trade networks, and communication systems. This paper introduces the concepts of vertex and edge connectivity in CFGs, along with discussions on partial cubic fuzzy cut nodes and partial cubic fuzzy edge cuts, and presents several related results with the help of some examples to enhance understanding. In addition, this paper introduces the idea of partial cubic α-strong and partial cubic δ-weak edges. An example is discussed to explain the motivation behind partial cubic α-strong edges. Moreover, it delves into the introduction of generalized vertex and edge connectivity in CFGs, along with generalized partial cubic fuzzy cut nodes and generalized partial cubic fuzzy edge cuts. Relevant results pertaining to these concepts are also discussed. As an application, the concept of generalized partial cubic fuzzy edge cuts is applied to identify regions that are most affected by trade deficits resulting from street crimes. Finally, the research findings are compared with the existing method to demonstrate their suitability and creativity.

Protein for Scraps: A Study of the European Union “Circular” Raw Materials Trade


 
 
 Translator
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 The shift from the current extractive linear production and consumption system to a circular economy (CE) has been heralded as a way to reduce the negative environmental and social impacts of human economic activity. The European Union (EU) has committed to leading the way to a worldwide CE, with the development of an international market of recyclable raw materials (RRM) as one of the main pillars of its strategy. However, there is extensive evidence regarding the unequal distribution of the economic benefits and environmental damages related to international trade. Therefore, the objective of a global fair transition to a CE may be undermined if the related markets continue to reproduce the prevailing patterns of ecologically unequal exchange. In order to test whether or not this is the case, this research studies the physical trade balance and the terms of trade on the recent RRM trade flows from, to and between the EU27 member states.

Modeling the economic impact for Chile of an import ban on genetically modified maize.

We estimate producer and consumer surplus changes due to a possible GM maize import ban in Chile, which produces only non-GM grains for internal use. Without foreign non-GM sources, the ban's effect on domestic maize prices would be so significant as to induce Chile to switch from net exporter to net importer of animal products. Fixed factor owners in farm production would benefit significantly, although non-GM maize imports would moderate gains. Total social welfare measures would decline considerably, requiring large offsetting noneconomic benefits for a ban's political viability. Without non-GM imports, internal maize prices would likely eliminate domestic animal product industries; with possible imports, industries and final consumers would suffer, but much less. Currently, the country is a net importer of grain and a net exporter of pork and poultry, and so most welfare losses on the demand side of the market for maize would be in terms of the economic rents generated by the pork and poultry sectors. International competition would protect final consumers to the extent that animal product imports based on GM feed were permitted.

How can the value added of Vietnam’s export industries be increased?

Vietnam became an important exporter of cellphones after the introduction of foreign direct investments by multinational companies. Cellphones account for around 20% of Vietnam’s total exports and contribute to its ability to overcome its trade deficit. However, the share of domestic value added in Vietnam’s electronics industry has been declining. This study suggests that this is related to the increase in cellphones as the main export item for Vietnam. Along with the upgrading of products produced in the country, the country’s electronics industry is increasingly relying on the import of parts. By decomposing Vietnam’s major export items—smartphones and printers–this study reveals that parts of the latter are more technologically accessible for domestic manufacturers to supply, while most of the former’s parts are beyond the technical capabilities of local manufacturers. This study suggests that when developing countries such as Vietnam consider targeting an industry to realize its latent comparative advantage, they should consider not only the possibility of gaining an advantage in the assembly of the product but also the possibility of creating backward linkages and developing ancillary industries.

The effects of trade on national productivity - A stimulant or its handmaiden: An empirical evidence from ASEAN nations

The paper investigates the mediating relationship between Trade and National Productivity, proxied by economic growth rate in ASEAN from 2012 – 2021. Using data from the ASEAN Statistical Yearbook, this research, first, reinvigorates the positive effects of trade balance on national productivity to improve the international trade literature given new settings and contemporary contexts, second, examines the translating/mediating effects of trade towards economic performance in the ASEAN by a novel approach through the adoption of generalized least squares and structural equation models. Findings show that there is a positive correlation between FDI and economic growth, a negative between trade openness and economic growth. Interestingly, there is the mediating effects of trade towards the FDI-growth relationship, justified by the tremendous uplift after the presence of trade was conducted into the regression. Albeit found compatible, the paper constrains itself since it did not treat the confounding effects of local market characteristics such as governance structures, institutional quality, intervention of fiscal policies, and the monetary circulation as one of the internal factors; to which the present author humbly suggests for future studies. Moreover, because of data unavailability, hypotheses are tested over the 10-year span, which may impede the inference because of macroeconomic-level policy lags.

Dynamic connectedness of inflation around the world: A time-varying approach from G7 and E7 countries

Using advanced econometric techniques of the Time-Varying Parameters Vector Autoregression model with stochastic volatility (TVP-SV-VAR) and the Quantile Vector Autoregression (QVAR) model, this research investigates the dynamics of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) across G7 and E7 countries from January 1993 to January 2023, aiming to comprehensively analyze the international transmission of inflation. The study yields several key findings. Firstly, we ascertain that approximately 64% of inflation volatility can be attributed to international transmission. Secondly, our analysis consistently identifies Turkey and Russia as net exporters of inflation over the study period, while G7 countries and Mexico emerge as persistent net importers. Thirdly, we note a gradual increase in China's inflation connectivity with developing countries following the Asian financial crisis, coupled with a diminishing impact of Chinese inflation transmission to developed nations. Fourthly, we observe a heightened complexity in the inflation transmission network during periods marked by high Total Connectivity Index (TCI) values, compared to those with low TCI values. Lastly, our study underscores that the transmission of international inflation intensifies during periods characterized by extremely high or low international inflation rates.

Community forest, environment conservation and rural livelihood

The study analyses the economic benefit to rural people derived from the community forest and the role of community forest in the livelihood of the rural people. For this purpose, Khajure Community Forest of Dang district was selected. This article analyses interactions among economic development, the environment, and natural resource use pattern. Community forestry promotes sustainable management of forests by the local community for their collective benefits and promotes equal rights regardless of caste, ethnicity and gender. Community Forest Users’ Group highly depend on CF for their basic households needs such as fuel wood, grass, fodder and timber. Community participation in managing forest has contributed to forest conservation, scientific utilization of forest products and social inclusion which ultimately fosters community ownership in management and use of natural resources. But there are problems in CF governance and benefit sharing. The main issues of community forest are elite dominance in decision-making, social exclusion, and unequal benefit sharing. Rural people go through the exploitation of forest resource haphazardly for their survival. Exploitation of natural resources, including forest resource, contribute to global environmental problems and climate change. Electric cook stoves could be a good, clean fuel source while also helping to reduce the trade deficit. Scheduled firewood collection has resulted to shortage of fuel wood and has increased dependency on cow dung cake for daily cooking. Socio-economic condition of community members has remained as the obstacle for fuel shifting towards modern and clean energy that produces no smoke and no indoor air pollution, and thus, reducing respiratory diseases. Fuel transition has great positive impact on forest conservation,too.

Sizeable net export of base cations from a Carpathian flysch catchment indicates their geogenic origin while the 26Mg/24Mg, 44Ca/40Ca and 87Sr/86Sr isotope ratios in runoff are indistinguishable from atmospheric input.

Nutrient imbalances may negatively affect the health status of forests exposed to multiple stress factors, including drought and bark beetle calamities. We studied the origin of base cations in runoff from a small Carpathian catchment underlain by base-poor flysch turbidites using magnesium (Mg), calcium (Ca) and strontium (Sr) isotope composition of 10 ecosystem compartments. Our objective was to constrain conclusions drawn from long-term hydrochemical monitoring of inputs and outputs. Annual export of Mg, Ca and Sr exceeds 5-to-15 times their atmospheric input. Mass budgets per se thus indicate sizeable net leaching of Mg, Ca and Sr from bedrock sandstones and claystones. Surprisingly, δ26Mg, δ44Ca and 87Sr/86Sr isotope ratios of runoff were practically identical to those of atmospheric deposition and soil water but significantly different from bedrock isotope ratios. We did not find any carbonates in the studied area as a hypothetical, easily dissolvable source of base cations whose isotope composition might corroborate the predominance of geogenic base cations in the runoff. Marine carbonates typically have lower δ26Mg and 87Sr/86Sr ratios, and silicate sediments often have higher δ26Mg and 87Sr/86Sr ratios than runoff at the study site. Mixing of these two sources, if confirmed, could reconcile the flux and isotope data.

A Comparative Analysis between Intrinsic and Extrinsic Drivers of Inflation

In most economies, particularly in developing countries, addressing inflation remains a significant macroeconomic challenge. This study seeks to examine the factors, both internal and external, that contribute to inflationary trends in South Africa. To achieve this objective, the authors employ the Johansen cointegration test, vector error correction approach, impulse response function, and variance decomposition on quarterly time series data spanning from 1994 to 2022. The findings of the study provide compelling evidence suggesting that both internal and external factors play a statistically significant role in influencing inflation. However, external forces exert a greater impact on the inflationary pressures witnessed in South Africa when compared to internal factors. Notably, factors such as trade openness, exchange rates, and imported prices contribute significantly to the elevated inflation rate in South Africa. On the other hand, internal factors like sustainable government expenditure, interest rates, and net export prices prove effective in mitigating the inflation rate.

The Unsustainable Path: Assessing Indonesia’s Reliance on Fossil Energy in Economic Growth

Indonesia is the most energy-intensive country in Southeast Asia. Indonesia's energy consumption reaches 40 percent of the total energy consumption in the Southeast Asian region. This study aims to analyze the relationship between economic growth and energy consumption in Indonesia in 2000-2021. The variables used are oil and gas GDP, energy consumption, global price, net exports and imports, foreign investment, and domestic investment. The data used is obtained from macroeconomic data and requires stationarity testing. This study uses a quantitative research type to assess energy consumption and its relationship with oil and gas GDP in Indonesia with the Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model Approach. The results of this study indicate that increasing development and dynamic economic growth will be accompanied by increasing energy demand. The conclusion of this study is that the ARDL model estimation results show significant differences in the influence of variables on oil and gas GDP in Indonesia in the short and long term.