Balanced Growth Path Research Articles

Endogenous Recombinant Growth Through Market Production of Knowledge and Intellectual Property Rights

We analyze the relationship between economic growth, knowledge production and intellectual property rights. Economists and historians underline different aspects as possible causes of knowledge accumulation; the former stress the role of incentive mechanisms while the latter the autonomous progress of science. We construct a unified theory allowing for the presence of markets and the autonomous accumulation of knowledge by introducing intellectual property right policies in an endogenous recombinant growth model. In this framework a benevolent government should reallocate resources from the final to the knowledge production sector and implement a tax-subsidy scheme in order to correct for the inefficiencies generated by the process. We characterizethe (asymptotic) steady state equilibrium, and some properties of the transitional path. We show that if certain conditions are met, then the economy will converge to its (asymptotic) balanced growth path, and along such a path growth will be independent of the government policy; conversely, transition dynamics and the capital to knowledge ratio are affected by the choice of the tax-subsidy parameter. We then quantitatively analyze the effect of different policy interventions on welfare, and show that welfare is increasing in the policy parameter and a strictly positive policy level may be required to avoid stagnation. JEL Classification Numbers: K11; L16; L43; O31; O34; O41

From Energy-Intensive to Innovation-Led Growth: On the Transition Dynamics of China's Economy

Whether China continues its current energy-intensive growth path or adopts a sustainable development prospect has significant implication for energy and climate governance. Building on a Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans growth model incorporating the mechanism of endogenous technological change and its interaction with fossil energy use and economic growth, this paper contributes to an economic exposition of China’s potential transition from an energy-intensive to an innovation-led growth path. We find that in China’s initial growth period the small amount of capital stock creates higher dynamic benefits of capital investment and incentives of capital stock accumulation rather than R&D-related innovation. Accumulation of energy-consuming capital stock along this non-innovation-led growth path thus leads to an intensive use of fossil energy - an energy-intensive growth pattern. To avoid this undesirable outcome, China’s social planner should consider locating a transition point to an innovation-led balanced growth path (BGP). When the growth dynamics reaches that transition point, China’s economy would embark on investment in physical capital and R&D simultaneously, and make a transition into the innovation-led BGP along which consumption, capital investment, and R&D have a balanced share. Also in this innovation-led BGP, consumption, physical capital stock, and knowledge stock all grow, fossil energy uses decline.

Endogenous growth with addictive habits

In this paper, we investigate the global dynamics of an endogenous growth model with linear technology and addictive habits. We find feasible parameters’ conditions under which: (a) the resulting equilibrium consumption path is steeper than in a standard AK model; (b) endogenous fluctuations in the form of damping fluctuations around the balanced growth path emerge; (c) the Easterlin’s paradox emerges. The relevance of these results is explained comparing our findings with the results already known in the existing literature.

Positional Preferences, Endogenous Growth, and Optimal Income- and Consumption Taxation

This paper analyzes the impact of positional preferences, exhibiting conspicuous consumption and conspicuous wealth, on optimal consumption- and income taxes, for an endogenous growth model with public capital. Positional preferences raise the endogenous growth rate if the elasticity of intertemporal substitution is larger than one. Even if labor supply is exogenous, the consumption externalities introduce distortions so long as preferences are wealth-dependent, and with or without the presence of conspicuous wealth. Consequently, optimal consumption- and income taxes differ from zero. Numerical simulations present the effects of fiscal policy on the balanced growth path and transitional dynamics.

Global analysis and indeterminacy in a two‐sector growth model with human capital

AbstractThe purpose of the present paper is to highlight some features of global dynamics of the two‐sector growth model with accumulation of human and physical capital analyzed by Brito and Venditti, which is a specialization of the model proposed by Mulligan and Sala‐i‐Martín. In particular, our analysis focuses on the context in which the Brito–Venditti system admits two balanced growth paths, each corresponding, after a change of variables, to an equilibrium point of a three‐dimensional system, and proves the possible existence of points such that in any neighborhood of lying on the plane corresponding to fixed values of the state variables there exist points whose positive trajectories tend to either equilibrium point. This implies that equilibrium selection in the Brito–Venditti system may depend on the expectations of economic agents rather than on the history of the economy. That is, economies with identical technologies and preferences, starting from the same initial values of the state variables (history), may follow rather different equilibrium trajectories according to the economic agents’ choices of the initial values of the jumping variables (expectations). Moreover, we prove that the basins of attraction (two or three‐dimensional) of locally indeterminate equilibrium points may be very large, as they can extend up to the boundary of the system phase space.

Indeterminate Balanced Growth under Habit Persistence and Fiscal Policies

This paper studies a dynamic general equilibrium model with habit persistence in preferences and fiscal policies of taxation and expenditures. Preference takes a subtractive form of habits (the marginal rate of substitution between the agent's own consumption and habit stocks is constant), and technology is linear in aggregate capital (the economy grows without a limit in the long run). We find a continuum of competitive equilibrium paths in conjunction with a unique balanced growth path in the growing economy, in which habits represent both envy/jealousy and altruism/admiration. In addition, in the social optimum under second-best fiscal policies, we show the existence of indeterminacy in transitional allocations along with a unique balanced growth path. Thus, we find that the introduction of habits influences the patterns of the transitional paths but has no impact on the balanced growth path in either competitive or social optimum allocations. The second-best fiscal policy, therefore, restores the socially optimal balanced growth rate but fails to select the unique transitional path among multiple competitive equilibrium paths in the imperfectly competitive economy.

Optimal Emission Policy under the Risk of Irreversible Pollution

AbstractWe consider an optimal consumption and pollution problem that has two important features. Environmental damages due to economic activities may be irreversible and the level at which the degradation becomes irreversible is unknown. Particular attention is paid to the situation where agents are relatively impatient and/or do not care a lot about the environment and/or Nature regenerates at low rate. We show that the optimal policy of the uncertain problem drives the economy in the long run toward a steady state while, when ignoring irreversibility, the economy follows a balanced growth path accompanied by a perpetual decrease in environmental quality and consumption, both asymptotically converging toward zero. Therefore, accounting for the risk of irreversibility induces more conservative decisions regarding consumption and polluting emissions. In general, however, we cannot rule out situations where the economy will optimally follow an irreversible path and consequently will also be left, in the long run, with an irreversibly degraded environment.

Foreign aid, leisure–effort choice, and economic growth

Using an endogenous growth model, this paper examines the growth and welfare effects of foreign aid in the recipient economy. The emphasis is on the incentive factor of the effort–leisure choice. Besides financing public services, part of the aid is transferred to the public. This increases individual wealth, thereby providing less incentives to individuals for human capital acquisition, but with more leisure. Thus, foreign aid may not always help the growth and welfare of the economy. Taking this incentive factor into account, we further study the issue on aid allocation in achieving the highest levels of growth and welfare. Along the balanced growth path, aid allocation for welfare maximization is different from that under growth maximization.

Innovation, Decentralization, and Planning in a Multi-Region Model of Schumpeterian Economic Growth

We study innovation and the resulting Schumpeterian economic growth that this innovation gives rise to in a model with N heterogeneous regions. For each region i where i = 1,…,N, our analysis leads to six findings. First, we define the balanced growth path (BGP) allocations and the equilibrium of interest. Second, we stipulate the form of the innovation possibilities frontier that is consistent with balanced economic growth. Third, we derive the growth rate of the ith region in the decentralized equilibrium. Fourth, we solve the social planner’s problem and derive the Pareto optimal growth rate in the ith region. Fifth, we compare the two preceding growth rates and then discuss the circumstances in which there is either too much or too little innovation in (i) the ith region, (ii) an aggregate economy of N>2 regions and (iii) an aggregate economy of N=2 regions. Sixth, we briefly discuss interregional trade and its effects in an aggregate economy of N=2 regions. Finally, we conclude and then offer suggestions for extending the research described here.

A two-sector model of economic growth with social capital accumulation

In this paper we analyze a two-sector growth model in which the utility function is not additively separable in consumption and “quality leisure time”. Differently from the main body of theoretical literature on quality leisure, we assume that the “productivity” of leisure is not determined by the stock of human capital but instead by the quality of social environment, which in turn depends on the joint action of the economy-wide average leisure and of the stock of social capital. In this context we show that the time evolution of social capital may exhibit an inverted-U shaped path, according to which the stock of social capital, initially increasing, becomes definitively decreasing. This result is consistent with several empirical studies about the time evolution of social capital in industrialized economies (see e.g. Robert Putnam, 1995, 2000). Furthermore, we show that the inverted-U shaped evolution of the stock of social capital can be observed only if the balanced growth path is locally indeterminate.

Quo Vadis? Energy Consumption and Technological Innovation

Whether China maintains its business-as-usual energy-intensive growth trajectory or changes to a sustainable development alternative has significant implications for global energy and climate governance. This paper is motivated to theoretically examine China’s potential transition from its energy-intensive status quo to an innovation-oriented growth prospect. We develop an economic growth model that incorporates the endogenous mechanism of technological innovation and its interaction with fossil energy use and the environment. We find that from an initial condition with a pristine environment and a small amount of capital installation, the higher dynamic benefits of physical investment will incentivize the investment in physical capital rather than R&D-related innovation. Accumulation of the energy-consuming capital thus leads to an intensive use of fossil energy-an energy-intensive growth pattern. But if the mechanism of R&D-related innovation is introduced into the economy, until the dynamic benefit of R&D is equalized with that of capital investment, the economy embarks on R&D for innovation. As a result, the economy will evolve along an innovation-oriented balanced growth path where consumption, physical capital and technology all grow, fossil energy consumptions decline, and environmental quality improves.

Entrepreneurial finance and economic growth

This paper incorporates the process of entrepreneurial finance into an endogenous growth model with horizontal innovation (Romer J Polit Econ 98:S71–S102, 1990; Jones J Polit Econ 103(4):759–784, 1995b). To capture the market frictions existing in the financing of innovation, entrepreneurial finance is described as a process of “search and matching” between entrepreneurs proposing their innovative ventures and capitalists selecting and financing the most valuable projects. We determine the amount of resources devoted to innovation along the balanced growth path. The welfare analysis highlights the sub-optimality of the equilibrium innovative efforts due to search and bargaining frictions. We analyze the role of the policy maker to restore the optimality of investments in innovation.

Stability of long-run growth in East Asian countries: New evidence from panel stationarity test with structural breaks

This paper investigates the stability of the steady-state growth process in East Asian region using a novel panel stationarity test, which allows us to control for (a) unobserved heterogeneity in form and date of potential structural breaks in a trend function, (b) the cross-sectional dependence among countries in the panel bootstrapping methods, and (c) the serially correlated errors. Evidence shows that a large majority of countries exhibit slowdowns in economic growth after their structural breaks and thus could not recover from negative shocks and return original balanced growth path.

SUSTAINABLE HETEROGENEITY IN EXOGENOUS GROWTH MODELS. THE SOCIALLY OPTIMAL DISTRIBUTION BY GOVERNMENT’S INTERVENTION

This paper examines the socially optimal allocation by focusing not on the social welfare function but instead on the utility possibility frontier in exogenous growth models with a heterogeneous population. A unique balanced growth path was found on which all of the optimality conditions of all heterogeneous households are equally and indefinitely satisfied (sustainable heterogeneity). With appropriate government interventions, such a path is always achievable and is uniquely socially optimal for almost all generally usable (i.e., preferences are complete, transitive, and continuous) social welfare functions. The only exceptions are some variants in Nietzsche type social welfare functions, but those types of welfare functions will rarely be adopted in democratic societies. This result indicates that it is no longer necessary to specify the shape of the social welfare function to determine the socially optimal growth path in a heterogeneous population.

A Multi-sector Model of Public Expenditure and Growth

A large and rich body of empirical and theoretical research examines the role of public expenditure in fostering economic growth. This paper develops a model of endogenous growth with a particular focus on the role of public expenditure in structural changes. We consider the dynamics of a multi-sector economy that allows for differences among sectors in the output elasticity of public expenditure, and demonstrate that there exists a unique balanced growth path that is locally saddle-path stable. Along the balanced growth path, the endogenous growth of public expenditure and its disproportionate effect on different sectors result in changes in the relative prices of goods, which, in turn, cause structural changes represented by a reallocation of resources across sectors. Quantitatively, the faster the economic growth triggered by the policy, the greater the changes in the reallocation of labor.

The structural shift to green services: A two-sector growth model with public capital and open-access resources

An expansion of economic activities with low impact on ecological resources is a crucial component of the transition to a low-carbon society. “Green” structural change is analysed here through a model with a “progressive” manufacturing sector and a “stagnant” service sector. The latter represents an increasingly demanded class of services characterised by high intensity of labour, low productivity growth and reduced impact on resources. A stock of public capital enhances productivity growth in the manufacturing sector, whose output negatively affects an environmental asset entering households’ welfare function. Along the balanced growth path a substitution process between “dirty” consumption and the open-access asset takes place, leading to a stagnation in welfare despite the positive growth rate. Structural change towards green service occurs along the transition to the BGP any time the public-to-private capital ratio is above its long-run level, and is associated with a decrease in consumption growth, a reduction in working hours and a decline in the environmental degradation rate. A numerical example illustrates that the overall positive effect on households’ welfare can be positive. Finally, it is shown how infrastructure policies can have non-trivial consequences on long-run growth, welfare and environmental sustainability.

Segmented Labor Markets and the Distributive Cycle: A Roadmap towards Inclusive Growth

The paper builds on the Goodwin (1967) model which describes the distributive cycle of capitalist economies whereby mass unemployment is generated periodically through the conflict about income distribution between capital and labor. We add to this model a segmented labor market structure with fluid, latent, and stagnant components. The model exhibits a unique balanced growth path which depends on the speeds with which workers are pushed into or out of the labor market segments. We investigate the stability properties of this growth path with segmented labor markets and find that, though there is a stabilizing inflation barrier term in the wage Phillips curve, the interaction with the latent and stagnant portions of the labor market generates potentially (slowly) destabilizing forces if policy measures are absent that regulate these labor markets. We then introduce an activating labor market policy, where government in addition acts as employer of last resort thereby eliminating the stagnant portion of the labor market, whilst erecting benefit systems that partially sustain the incomes of workers that have to leave the floating/latent labor market of the private sector of the economy. We show that such policies guarantee the macrostability of the economy’s balanced growth path.

On the Mechanism of International Technology Diffusion for Energy Productivity Growth

International diffusion of advanced environment and energy-related technologies has received much attention in recent environmental economics studies. As a much needed complement to the “black box” complex numerical modelling, this paper contributes to developing a simple, intuitive analytical framework to unveil the mechanism of international technology diffusion for energy productivity growth. We draw on the Solow growth model to build a benchmark exogenous framework to explore the basic mechanism of energy technology diffusion. This exogenous model is then extended to a Romer-type endogenous one where the R&D-induced expansion of energy technology varieties is used to represent the deep structure of technology diffusion. We show that the growth rates of energy productivity are the same across countries in the balanced growth path equilibrium, but the cross-country differences in the efficiency of foreign technology absorption and indigenous innovation lead to cross-country divergence in the levels of energy productivity. The economy that has a stronger capacity of assimilating foreign technology diffusion and undertaking indigenous innovation tends to gain a higher level of energy productivity.

Goods production, learning by doing, and growth in a region with creative and physical capital

We study the effects of learning by doing resulting from the production of a final good on economic growth in a region that is creative in the sense of Richard Florida. Firms in this region use creative and physical capital to produce output. We model learning by doing formally and our analysis of the working of this creative region leads to four results. First, we derive analytic expressions for the growth rates of physical capital and technology. Second, we draw phase diagrams and show that in the steady state, the preceding two growth rates must be equal. Third, we show that the economy of our creative region converges to a balanced growth path (BGP) in which the growth rates of physical capital, technology, and the output of the final good are identical. Finally, we investigate the impact that an increase in the savings rate has on the economic growth of our creative region in the long run.

Metas de inflação, crescimento e estabilidade macroeconômica: uma análise a partir de um modelo pós-keynesiano macrodinâmico não linear

O presente artigo tem por objetivo analisar os efeitos da adoção de um regime de metas de inflação, no qual o Banco Central estabelece a taxa de juros de curto prazo da economia como uma reação a desvios da inflação em relação à sua meta e do produto em relação ao seu potencial, sobre o crescimento econômico de longo prazo de uma determinada economia. Para esse fim, constrói-se um modelo de crescimento pós-keynesiano não linear, que possibilita a existência de mais de um ponto de equilíbrio no curto prazo. Chega-se à conclusão que a manutenção de uma trajetória de crescimento equilibrado no curto prazo após a introdução de choques exógenos depende, em larga medida, da condução da política fiscal. No longo prazo, obtemos três configurações possíveis de equilíbrio, duas das quais são inerentemente instáveis. A estabilidade da posição de equilíbrio de longo prazo na terceira configuração dependerá da forma como o Banco Central reage a desvios da inflação e do produto. Em particular, mostra-se que um comportamento mais cauteloso por parte do Banco Central, no sentido de elevar a taxa de juros de curto prazo apenas em momentos realmente necessários, pode ajudar essa economia a trilhar uma trajetória de crescimento balanceada de longo prazo.