Bank Balance Sheets Research Articles

Portugal

After a deeper pandemic-induced recession than the rest of the euro area in 2020, the Portuguese economy gained ground in 2021, and growth strengthened further in 2022:Q1. Employment reached pre-pandemic levels in 2021:H2 and GDP in 2022:Q1. Nonetheless output is expected to remain below pre-pandemic trend over the medium term. While growth in 2022:Q1 was supported by a strong bounce back in tourism and domestic demand, the recovery for the rest of the year is expected to be hampered by the war in Ukraine despite limited direct linkages with Russia and Ukraine, due to higher commodity prices, supply-side disruptions, and weaker confidence and external demand. The outlook is clouded by uncertainty relating to the war, new virus waves, and the ultimate effect of the pandemic on corporate, bank, and public sector balance sheets. While declining and with improved composition, public debt would remain high.

The transmission of financial shocks and leverage of financial institutions: An endogenous regime switching framework

We conduct a novel empirical analysis of the role of leverage of financial institutions for the transmission of financial shocks to the macroeconomy. For that purpose we develop an endogenous regime-switching structural vector autoregressive model with time-varying transition probabilities that depend on the state of the economy. We propose new identification techniques for regime switching models. Recently developed theoretical models emphasize the role of bank balance sheets for the build-up of financial instabilities and the amplification of financial shocks. We build a market-based measure of leverage of financial institutions employing institution-level data and find empirical evidence that real effects of financial shocks are amplified by the leverage of financial institutions in the financial-constraint regime. We also find evidence of heterogeneity in how financial institutions, including depository financial institutions, global systemically important banks and selected nonbank financial institutions, affect the transmission of shocks to the macroeconomy. Our results confirm the leverage ratio as a useful indicator from a policy perspective.

Greece: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Greece

Greece has weathered the pandemic well, with a considerably stronger-than-expected recovery. Reforms progressed in several areas, including digitalization, privatization, improving the fiscal policy mix, and bank balance sheet repair. Greece finalized its early repayment to the IMF on April 4 and is expected to graduate from the quarterly European Institutions’ Enhanced Surveillance framework on schedule by August 2022. Despite the adverse impact of the war in Ukraine, growth is projected to remain robust at 3.5 percent this year. High energy prices are expected to push up average inflation to 6.1 percent. Public debt is on a downward trajectory and rollover risks appear manageable. The external position last year was moderately weaker than that consistent with fundamentals and desirable policies.

Causal analysis of central bank holdings of corporate bonds under interference

We investigate whether the transfer of corporate bonds from the private sector to the balance sheet of the central bank permanently alters their relative prices. Answering this question complements the literature on central bank asset purchase programs, documenting significant relative price changes over shorter horizons. We use data on bonds issued over the duration of the European Central Bank's corporate bond purchase program and a novel regression discontinuity design to quantify the causal effect of interest. The estimates indicate that the program did not, on average, permanently alter the yield spreads of eligible bonds relative to those of similar noneligible bonds. This finding suggests that central bank holdings of even relatively illiquid private sector securities can have no distortionary effects on the relative prices of such assets.

The currency channel of the global bank leverage cycle

The amplitude of leverage procyclicality is heterogeneous across banks and across countries. This paper introduces international diversification of bank balance sheets as a factor in this observed heterogeneity, with a special emphasis on currency diversification. Based on a new theoretical framework, it shows that the impact of international diversification on leverage procyclicality depends on the relative performance of economies, the global business cycle and the exchange rate regime. By altering the distribution of global bank portfolios, international diversification adds a currency channel to the risk channel of the global leverage cycle. Using granular data on banks located in Prance, the paper shows that the pre-crisis international diversification of banks increased leverage procyclicality during the 2008–2009 crisis. Focusing on the currency channel, namely the valuation effect of currency diversification, my results show that it had a negative effect on leverage procyclicality during this period. The currency channel thus helped to offset part of the increased risk caused by the crisis. These findings draw attention to the specific role of balance sheet currency diversification in financial stability risk.

What lies beneath—Negative interest rates and bank lending

We study the transmission of negative interest rates to bank lending around an unexpected policy rate cut into deep negative territory by the Swiss National Bank (−0.75%). We exploit a rich data set on transaction-level corporate loans matched with bank balance sheet data. We find that banks more affected by negative interest rates offer looser lending terms and lend more than other banks. This result is consistent with the risk-taking channel, where a lower policy rate spurs bank risk-taking to maintain profits. The result implies that, even in such deep negative territory, the reversal rate has not yet been hit.

PENEGAKAN HUKUM TERHADAP PELANGGARAN PRINSIP KEHATI-HATIAN DALAM PEMBERIAN KREDIT PERBANKAN

Banks have a strategic function in the economy in every country. In this strategic function, banks are always faced with regulations in every step of their business. The regulation is not only on how to establish or permit to establish a bank, but each bank balance sheet is regulated in such a way that the bank is in a healthy level that is maintained in order to guide the principles or principles of banking. One of the banking principles that has become a serious concern for law enforcers is the principle of prudence. We can see the factual implementation of the precautionary principle in the application of in-depth credit analysis using the five c principle, which includes elements of character (character), capital (capital), capacity (customer's ability), condition of economy (economic condition), and colleteral (collateral). The principle of prudence is very necessary, especially in the case of banks wishing to channel funds to the public in the form of credit or financing. The precautionary principle is often interpreted as a principle that banks in carrying out their business must pay attention to various risks, both administrative risks and legal risks. The meaning of prudence is very broad to be interpreted, so that any violation of risk is categorized as a violation of the precautionary principle. Violation of the precautionary principle has become a law enforcement tool to ensnare banking managers, especially in providing credit as a crime. There needs to be a banking regulatory product that specifically regulates the limitations of any sanctions that are referred to as administrative violators or criminal acts of prudential principles. Because, if it is not regulated clearly and firmly, it will create legal uncertainty

Debt Overhang, Rollover Risk, and Corporate Investment: Evidence from the European Crisis

Abstract We quantify the role of financial leverage behind the sluggish post-crisis investment performance of European firms. We use a cross-country firm-bank matched database to identify separate roles for firm leverage, bank balance sheet weaknesses arising from sovereign risk, and aggregate demand conditions. We find that firms entering the crisis with higher debt levels reduce their investment more after the crisis. This negative effect is stronger for firms holding short-term debt in countries whose banks are weak due to sovereign stress, consistent with rollover risk being an important channel influencing investment. The negative effect of firm leverage on investment is also persistent for several years after the shock in the countries with sovereign stress. The corporate leverage channel can explain about 20% of the cumulative decline in aggregate private sector investment over the crisis period.

The Effect of Maturity Structures of Bank Assets and Liabilities on Performance: An Empirical Implementation on Deposit Banks in Turkey

The increasing role of the financial system in the economy as a result of the global structure, technological progress, and the interdependence of financial institutions has led to the emergence of the importance of stability in the banking sector. For this reason, the financial system has become undeniable in terms of the economic policies of the countries. In a capital-intensive economy, the banking sector is the building block of the financial system. Therefore, profitability and growth in the banking sector are in a position to support economic development. This study, it is aimed to examine the effect of the maturity structure of loans and deposits in bank balance sheets on bank performance. In this context, how the net interest margin, which is an one indicator banks' profitability, is affected by deposit and loan maturities was analyzed with the censored Tobit model method for the 2003-2019 period. The study shows that changes in the maturity structure of loans have an effect on the Net Interest Margin in periods when interest rates increase.

Assessing the economy-wide impacts of strengthened bank capital requirements in Indonesia using a financial computable general equilibrium model

ABSTRACT After the 2008 global financial crisis, authorities across the globe stressed the importance of equity capital to absorb losses. While many countries have raised bank capital adequacy requirements (CARs), the comprehensive impact assessment of this policy for emerging economies remains largely unexplored. We use a financial computable general equilibrium (FCGE) model of Indonesia called AMELIA-F to investigate the economy-wide impact of a 100 basis points increase in the CAR of Indonesian banks. Bank balance sheets contract as they move away from holding riskier assets, aiding macroeconomic stability. However, both non-housing and housing investment contract as banks pass on higher funding costs, driving long-run real GDP below baseline. As we discuss, debt-to-equity ratios for these sectors, and the economy-wide private debt to income ratio all fall, thus aiding long-run macroeconomic stability.

Commodity prices, bank balance sheets and macroprudential policies in small open economies

How important are liability dollarization in the transmission of commodity shocks on business cycles? To address this question, we developed a small open economy DSGE model with a banking sector and financial friction. The banks collect funds in the international capital markets in the form of foreign debt, which is denominated in dollars. Faced with a commodity shock, the results suggest that the presence of liability dollarization generates a greater response output, compared to the model that ignores this financial mechanism. In fact, after simulating a series of shocks in each period, bank balance sheets amplify expansions and deepen economic recessions. Thus, the volatility of business cycles is strongly affected by the presence of liability dollarization. However, the application of countercyclical macroprudential policies, based on Basel III capital requirements, absorbs the impacts of commodity shocks. In addition, this type of policy allows greater gains in social welfare. In summary, it can be pointed out that the bank balance sheets are quantitatively important because they provide information to understand macroeconomic fluctuations.

An investigation of the impacts of asset ratio policy on the banking system during the Covid-19 crisis in Turkey

PurposeThis paper provides a quantitative assessment of the “asset ratio” rule defined in Turkey as part of measures taken to stimulate the economy amid the Covid-19 pandemic. The main objective of the new rule was to boost credit growth in the economy and provide lending for credit-constrained households and firms that are in need. A secondary aim was to shift the denomination structure of the deposits toward domestic currency. Hence, the paper focus particularly on how the policy affected the growth rate of loans and the share of domestic deposits relative to foreign ones among the commercial banks. The policy was also heavily criticized due to the possibility that it will subjugate the banking system to excessive risk. The paper explore this possible impact by measuring how much the policy affected the default risk allowances in the banking system.Design/methodology/approachThe new policy required banks with deposits above a threshold level, i.e. large banks, to maintain a certain asset ratio. Banks with deposits below the threshold, i.e. small banks, were held exempt from it. The paper implement a difference-in difference methodology to assess the quantitative impacts of the asset ratio policy by taking large banks as the treatment group, and small banks as the control group.FindingsDifference-in-difference estimation results suggest that the asset ratio policy resulted in a 9.6% rise in loans and an 8.4% rise in government securities. Deposits also increased, with no significant change in their composition. The policy initially generated a 7% increase in the credit risk allowances of banks in the treatment group, which vanished in the following periods. Based on all these, the paper argue that the policy was successful in providing liquidity to the economy without jeopardizing the financial stability.Research limitations/implicationsThe findings of this study show that asset ratio policy is effective in increasing credit growth in countries with limited policy space such as Turkey. While saying this, the importance of the robust and prudent structure of the banking system in the economy should be underlined. Otherwise, the policy may have an unintended consequence of raising systemic risk. The policy suggestions also apply to advanced countries where the monetary policy has reached a natural limit due to the zero lower bound (ZLB). The ZLB problem encouraged these countries to use quantitative easing schemes in the aftermath of the Covid-19 crisis, just like the global financial crisis. However, it may take a long time to undo the effects of this policy on the balance sheets of central banks. In such cases, asset ratio policy can also be considered as an alternative tool for advanced economies notwithstanding the fact that the banking system should be prudent, well-capitalized and the country should have enough fiscal space. The main objective of the asset ratio policy was to help SMEs that were in urgent need of liquidity at the beginning of the crisis. The bank balance sheet data used in this paper does not contain information about the borrowers of the loans extended during the implementation of the policy. Analysis of this dimension using matched bank-firm level data will better demonstrate the success of the policy in achieving this goal. The paper address this as the main limitation of the paper and leave that analysis for future research.Originality/valueThis paper provides an important contribution to the literature by assessing a new unique policy whose objective is to stimulate loans and mitigate the impact of the Covid-19 crisis on the economy. The policy in question is predicted to have effects on the asset and liability structure and risk exposure of the banking system in Turkey. The quantitative analysis in this study estimates these impacts and discusses the effectiveness of the new policy in providing a relief for firms and households in need. Whether or not the policy caused a disruption in the sound structure of the banking system in Turkey is another question addressed in the paper.

Bank lending, collateral, and credit traps in a monetary union

This paper studies the transmission of non-standard monetary policy to firms’ investment in a monetary union where financial frictions limit the access to external finance. The model incorporates a sovereign-banking nexus where the occurrence of sovereign default severely hits the balance sheet of domestic banks. This feature impairs monetary transmission, generating responses of lending that diverge across countries, as well as the risk of cross-border spillover effects. Specifically, I show that the liquidity injected into the stressed country’s banks can result in financing the sovereign rather than boosting lending. Moreover, sovereign risk in one country can reduce asset values and, via the collateral channel, depress lending throughout the monetary union. The model sheds light on the troubled transmission of the ECB’s policy measures to the economy of stressed countries during the European sovereign debt crisis.

Monetary policy in a world of radical uncertainty

Monetary policy in a world of radical uncertainty

Can the covid bailouts save the economy?

Abstract The covid-19 crisis has led to a sharp deterioration in firm and bank balance sheets. The government has responded with a massive intervention in corporate credit markets. We study equilibrium dynamics of macroeconomic quantities and prices, and how they are affected by this policy response. The interventions prevent a much deeper crisis by reducing corporate bankruptcies by about half and short-circuiting the doom loop between corporate and financial sector fragility. The additional fiscal cost is zero since programme spending replaces what would otherwise have been spent on financial sector bailouts. An alternative intervention that targets aid to firms at risk of bankruptcy prevents more bankruptcies at much lower fiscal cost, but only enjoys marginally higher welfare. Finally, we study longer-run consequences for firm leverage and intermediary health when pandemics become the new normal.

Bank business models, failure risk and earnings opacity: A short- versus long-term perspective

Despite the ongoing bank regulatory reforms, relatively little research attention has been given to the effects of bank business models and opacity of bank balance sheet structure which may hinder regulation and market discipline. In this study, we explore the effects of business model strategies on banks' earnings opacity in the UK banking sector. Distinguishing between the short-term (within) and long-term (between) effects, our findings suggest that retail-oriented business models reduce the likelihood of earnings management practices in the short term but not over the long term. In contrast, wholesale-oriented business models increase the probability of earnings manipulation both in the short and long term. While bank business models characterised by a greater degree of functional diversification tend to lower earnings manipulation in the short term, the long-term incentives cannot be mitigated. Our findings also demonstrate that low failure risk (or greater solvency) represents an important channel in mitigating the effects of business models on earnings management practices both in the short and long term. Our results are robust to alternative proxies for earnings management and failure risk, and the use of alternative methods.

The real effects of invoicing exports in dollars

Exporting firms face foreign exchange risk when the export contract is invoiced in a foreign currency. For instance, for firms located outside of the United States, the US dollar is often used as a vehicle currency. The cost of hedging against this risk represents an additional trade cost for exporters, which is specific to the targeted destination. In this paper, we exploit an episode of heightened tensions in the USD/EUR foreign exchange market in July 2011, which increased the cost of hedging against US dollar fluctuations for French exporters. Using disaggregated information on bank balance sheets, bank-firm relationships and individual export flows for France, we show that exporters with a higher propensity to use hedging instruments reduced more their exports to “US dollar destinations” after this shock. For the average “treated” individual export flow in our sample, the increased hedging cost is equivalent to a counterfactual rise in trade costs by about 3 percentage points.

THE BALANCE SHEET OF A COMMERCIAL BANK AS THE MAIN DOCUMENT OF ITS ACTIVITIES

Introduction. The article is devoted to the study of the theoretical and methodological aspects of the analysis of the innovative strategy of creating the balance sheet of a commercial bank, the analysis of the current state and prospects for its development, and the developed directions for improving the modern strategy of creating the balance sheet of commercial banks in the conditions of the development of Ukraine. The work examines the content and features of the bank's activity as a financial intermediary, provides a description of the methods of quantitative analysis of its current activity, and investigates the methods of qualitative analysis of its development prospects. Purpose. The purpose of the research is to develop and work out the methodological principles of optimizing the creation of the balance sheet of a commercial bank based on the identification of systemic and functional features of international financial accounting, trends in the development of international financial-credit-payment systems in the conditions of the spread of information technologies and modern internationalization. Method (methodology). Solving the set tasks is carried out with the help of methods of assessment and analysis of risks and efficiency of functioning, assessment of financial and economic indicators of commercial bank activity, statistical methods. Results. The use of tools for improving competitive intelligence in the world markets of banking services is proposed as a direction for improving accounting and analytical support for creating a bank balance sheet. Directions for using data processing software for researching the world banking market of financial services have been developed. The effectiveness of the proposed measures is substantiated.

The Emergence of a Parallel World: The Misperception Problem for Bank Balance Sheet Risk and Lending Behavior

We examine the reason that there have coexisted the two opposing views on distressed banks' lending behavior in Japan's post-bubble period: the one is the stagnant lending in a capital crunch and the other is the forbearance lending to low-quality borrowers. To this end, we address the measurement problem for bank balance sheet risk. We identify the credit supply and allocation effects of bank capital in the bank loan equation specified at loan level, thereby finding that the ``parallel worlds'', or the two opposing views, emerge because the regulatory capital does not reflect the actual condition of increased risk on bank balance sheet, while the market value of capital does. By uncovering banks' engagement in patching-up of the regulatory capital in the Japan's post-bubble period, we show that lowly market capitalized banks that had difficulty in building up adequate equity capital for their risk exposure decreased the overall supply of credits. The parallels world can emerge whenever banks are allowed to overvalue assets with their discretion, as in Japan' post-bubble period.

АНАЛІЗ РОЗРИВІВ ЛІКВІДНОСТІ ЯК МЕТОД ЗБАЛАНСОВАНОГО УПРАВЛІННЯ АКТИВАМИ ТА ПАСИВАМИ (НА ПРИКЛАДІ АТ «КБ «ПРИВАТБАНК»)

In the article it was explored the concept of asset and liability management. It was found that this process has a direct impact on the structure and liquidity of the bank's balance sheet, as well as sensitivity to fluctuations in interest rates on its financial items. Liquidity management is a priority in the bank's asset and liability management. It was justified that the best method of assessing the risk of liquidity loss is to analyze the gap in the maturity of financial requirements and liabilities. The basis of liquidity management is the concept of cash flow compliance, aimed at ensuring that based on the GAP-analysis of incoming cash flows are brought in line with the outgoing flows. It was revealed that an important system-forming institution of the domestic banking sphere is JSC CB «PrivatBank». From the point of view of asset and liability management, the main sources of mobilization of financial resources of this bank were be identified. It was found that due to the active work of JSC CB «PrivatBank» in the Ukrainian financial market, the greatest danger is the probability of liquidity risk. The emergence of this risk means that the institution may suffer losses, additional expenses or loss of income due to its inability to provide financing to increase assets and/or fulfillment of its liabilities in due time. In this context the GAP-analysis was performed for JSC CB «PrivatBank». For the purpose of liquidity gap analysis there were selected only financial assets and liabilities of the bank. All these funds were divided into following groups: on demand and up to 1 month, from 1 to 3 months, from 3 to 12 months, more than 12 months. It was made an assessment of the dynamics of changes in liquidity gaps in JSC CB «PrivatBank» in terms of maturity, as well as the total liquidity gap in 2016-2020. The necessity of developing measures to maintain liquidity in case of adverse events was substantiated. There were offered variants of scenarios of response to realization of bank liquidity risks. Emphasis was placed on the importance of finding alternative sources of funding that increase the bank's ability to withstand stressful situations and liquidity crises.