Hoard Bad News Research Articles

Insider Trading and Stock Price Crash Risk: International Evidence from a Natural Experiment

This study first establishes a causal relation between insider trading and the likelihood of stock price crash occurrence, and then investigates potential channels through which the former influences the latter. Exploiting the initial enforcement of insider trading laws in a country as a natural experiment, we find that insider trading enforcement leads to a significant reduction in stock price crashes. We further show that this effect goes through three channels, i.e., the investor protection channel, the information environment channel, and the corporate governance channel. Our results support the view that insider trading motivates managers to hoard bad news but are not consistent with the information uncertainty argument in Marin and Olivier (2008).

Stock price synchronicity, crash risk, and institutional investors

Both stock price synchronicity and crash risk are negatively related to the firm's ownership by dedicated institutional investors, which have strong incentive to monitor due to their large stake holdings and long investment horizons. In contrast, the relations become positive for transient institutional investors as they tend to trade rather than monitor. These findings suggest that institutional monitoring limits managers' extraction of the firm's cash flows, which reduces the firm-specific risk absorbed by managers, thereby leading to a lower R2. Moreover, institutional monitoring mitigates managerial bad-news hoarding, which results in a stock price crash when the accumulated bad news is finally released.

Corporate tax avoidance and stock price crash risk: Firm-level analysis

Using a large sample of U.S. firms for the period 1995–2008, we provide strong and robust evidence that corporate tax avoidance is positively associated with firm-specific stock price crash risk. This finding is consistent with the following view: Tax avoidance facilitates managerial rent extraction and bad news hoarding activities for extended periods by providing tools, masks, and justifications for these opportunistic behaviors. The hoarding and accumulation of bad news for extended periods lead to stock price crashes when the accumulated hidden bad news crosses a tipping point, and thus comes out all at once. Moreover, we show that the positive relation between tax avoidance and crash risk is attenuated when firms have strong external monitoring mechanisms such as high institutional ownership, high analyst coverage, and greater takeover threat from corporate control markets.