Bad Events Research Articles

Resilientscapes: Perception and Resilience to Reduce Vulnerability in the Island of Madeira

This paper intends to discuss landscape resilience as a way of reducing disaster risk in the island of Madeira. Maderia is a Portuguese Macaronesian island that is located in the Atlantic Ocean and frequently affected by natural hazards.Here, the concept of resilience is discussed as a dichotomous and place-based concept and as a way of achieving sustainability, sustainability being one of the main solutions for climate change. This paper will discuss the complexity of defining “resilience”, the contradictions involved in its use and its positive and negative applications.In order to make resilience an operative concept, it is investigated within landscape research, in which landscape is considered to be the result of human and natural actions and their interaction. Here, landscape is considered as a holistic, place-based, bottom-up concept that can be used as a unit of measure for community resilience.As a consequence of the kind of relationship that a community builds with the landscape in which it lives, we can encounter different kinds of lansdscapes: riskscapes, hazardscapes, resilientscapes, sustainable landscapes, etc. These landscapes are investigated in the context of the island of Madeira in order to identify the resilient actions of its community.To conclude, today, Madeira is a riskscape and often a hazardscape. The most recent incidents were the fires of 2013 and the flash flood of 2010, which was one of the worst events in the history of the archipelago. However, the first signs of resilience have been identified, which represent interesting examples of increasing awareness in both top-down and bottom-up ways.

Multi-Level Based Hybridized Intrusion Detection and Prevention System

Global spread of Information Technologyincreases security challenges; over intrusion detection system against sophisticated attacks. This has become of paramount importance since single mode intrusion detection systems have a lot of difficulties in protecting Network from sophisticated attackers. However, this paper propose a Multi-Level Based Hybridized Intrusion Detection System whereby the incoming packets will be examinedfor attacks at two layers; both at Network level as Network Intrusion Detection (NID) and further double check those that escape through the initial test at the second level using Bayes' theorem at Host level as Host based Intrusion Detection (HID). This will help to prevent against intrusion, minimize false alarms and maximize the numbers of detected bad events. It handle masses of information (often in real-time) so as to report the abnormal use of networks and computer systems in a real time before it get out of hand.

A Presença do Trágico na Teodiceia de Leibniz

Leibniz strives to conciliate the liberty of divine law and the cosmic order with the freedom of human action, affïrming that all good and bad events compete to bring about the consummation of God’s plan for Creation. The tragic imperfection of its parts, which reflects in the misery of evil deeds, converts into the perfection of the whole through the action of divine providence. The evil and the suffering destined by the consequent will of God, which results from the competition of all the particular individual wills, represent the means to a greater good, predestined by the prior will of God. All are predestined to eternal salvation with many destined to eternal condemnation.

The relationship between attributional style and destructive responses to job dissatisfaction: an exploratory study of internal migrant workers in China

This study examines the relationship between attributional style and destructive responses to job dissatisfaction among internal migrant workers in mainland China. Contrary to previous studies conducted in the West, we found that internality of bad events was negatively related to destructive responses to job dissatisfaction. Stability and globality were positively related to destructive responses to job dissatisfaction. We suggest that the concept of interdependent self-construal may explain the unique positive meaning of internality of bad events among Chinese migrant workers. The practical significance of the findings is discussed.

BEYOND THE GAME: ANALYZING THE USEFULNESS OF GAMES TO PROMOTE LIFE SKILLS DEVELOPMENT

The current paper provides a reflection about games’ ‘power’ to promote both ‘good’ and ‘bad’ learning. The study is organized in three sections. First, the complexity of games’ nature is briefly introduced within diverse perspectives in order to provide an understanding why games are highly empowered. Second, an analysis of historical events and academic references show how games have been used to promote both good and bad events. Finally, two life experiences are presented in order to illustrate how games can provide opposite outcomes regardless of cultural differences. Thus, within a provocative reflexive, physical educators are encouraged to think what can be taught on their daily lesson that is “beyond” the learning of the game itself.

Bad news does not always travel fast: evidence from Chapter 11 bankruptcy filings

AbstractThis paper examines the stock price performances of 275 non‐financial, non‐utility U.S. industrial firms that continue trading on the main exchanges after filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy between 1 October 1979 and 17 October 2005. This paper identifies a negative and statistically significant post‐bankruptcy drift that lasts for at least 6 months. This finding adds to the literature showing that the market is unable to process bad public news events in a timely manner. Further analysis suggests that the theoretical model proposed by Hong and Stein (1999) can be used to help explain this market‐pricing anomaly.

Accurate Classification Of GCB/ABC and MYC/BCL2 Diffuse Large B-Cell Lymphoma With a 14 Genes Expression Signature and a Simple and Robust RT-MLPA Assay

Diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) is the most common non-hodgkin lymphoma. It is subdivided into two molecular subtypes called germinal center B cell-like (GCB) and Activated B cell-like (ABC), deriving from different stages of B-cell differentiation. Recent studies have shown that ABC DLBCLs, which are associated with inferior survival, could benefit from new therapies targeting the NFkB pathway. Unfortunately, gene expression profiling methods to distinguish these lymphomas are not available in routine diagnosis and alternative immunohistochemical algorithms are often considered poorly reproducible. To circumvent these limitations we have developed a simple assay which allows a rapid and efficient classification of these tumours. By comparing gene expression data from the literature and from our own studies, we established a 10 genes expression signature which discriminates ABC from GCB cases (ABC: IRF4, FOXP1, IGHM, TNFRSF13B, CCND2; GCB: LMO2, MYBL1, BCL6, NEK6, TNFRSF9). These genes were incorporated into a Reverse Transcriptase Multiplex Ligation-dependant Probe Amplification assay (RT-MLPA), together with cMYC and BCL2, whose co-expression was recently shown to be prognostic in these diseases, and the CCND1 and MS4A1 (encoding CD20) genes used as controls (Figure 1A-B). We next applied this assay on a training series of 50 cases previously identified as belonging to the ABC or GCB subtypes by gene expression profiling using the Wright's algorithm to construct a Bayesian predictor. Within this first series, this predictor classified 44 cases within the expected subtypes, 5 were considered unclassified and only one ABC case was misclassified. The efficiency of this predictor was next verified on an independent validation series of 50 cases, where 46 cases were classified within the expected subtype, 3 were considered unclassified and again only one ABC case was misclassified. To test the prognostic strength of this assay we next included 85 additional cases, to reach a total of 185 DLBCLs (Figure 1C). 141 of these tumours, all treated between 2001 and 2011 at the centre H. Becquerel, Rouen, France, by a combination of Rituximab and chemotherapy, were retained for this analysis. Within this series, the RT-MLPA predictor identified 49 GCB and 64 ABC DLBCLs, and 28 cases remained unclassified. As expected, ABC cases were significantly associated with a worst event free survival (EFS)(P=0.015) and showed a trend toward a lower overall survival (OS)(P=0.060). Univariate analysis confirmed that the expression of several individual genes within this signature is significantly associated with poor prognosis (LMO2 low: OS P=0.005; BCL6 low: OS P=0.012; IRF4 high: OS P=0.008; TNFRSF13B high: OS P=0.004). We could also verify that the double MYC+/BCL2+ signature is significantly associated with a worst outcome (OS P=0.012) and identified a group of patients with particularly poor prognosis within the ABC subtype (OS P=0.004). Finally, we could demonstrate the robustness of our assay by classifying correctly 12 DLBCLs (6 ABC and 6 GCB) starting from RNA extracted from paraffin embedded (FFPE) biopsies. In conclusion, our RT-MLPA assay is a rapid (it can be achieved in less than one day, and we repeatedly tested up to 40 patients in parallel), cheap (the cost of one test is less than 5 dollars), and efficient gene expression profiling method to discriminate ABC from GCB DLBCLs and to obtain important information on others prognosis markers. It does not require specific equipments (only one conventional PCR module and one capillary genetic analyser), can be achieved from FFPE samples, and could easily be transferred in many routine diagnosis laboratories. [Display omitted] Disclosures:No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.

Myocardial Perfusion SPECT Utility in Predicting Cardiovascular Events Among Indonesian Diabetic Patients

Background: Indonesia has the fourth largest number of diabetes patients after India, China and the USA. Coronary artery disease (CAD) is the most common cause of death in diabetic patients. Early detection and risk stratification is important for optimal management. Abnormal myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI) is an early manifestation in the ischemic cascade. Previous studies have demonstrated the use of MPI to accurately diagnose obstructive CAD and predict adverse cardiac events. This study evaluated whether MPI predicts adverse cardiac event in an Indonesian diabetic population.Method: The study was undertaken in a consecutive cohort of patients with suspected or known CAD fulfilling entry criteria. All had adenosine stress MPI. The end point was a major adverse cardiac event (MACE) defined as cardiac death or nonfatal myocardial infarction (MI).Results: Inclusion and exclusion criteria were satisfied by 300 patients with a mean follow-up of 26.7 ± 8.8 months. The incidence of MACEs was 18.3% among diabetic patients, versus 9% in the non-diabetic population (p < 0.001). A multivariable Cox proportional hazard model demonstratedin dependent predictors for a MACE as abnormal MPI [HR: 9.30 (3.01 – 28.72), p < 0.001], post stress left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) ≤30% [HR:2.72 (1.21 – 6.15), p = 0.016] and the patients diabetic status [HR:2.28 (1.04 – 5.01), p = 0.04]. The Kaplan Meier event free survival curve constructed for the different subgroups based on the patients’ diabetic status and MPI findings demonstrated that diabetic patients with an abnormal MPI had the worst event free survival (log rank p value < 0.001).Conclusions: In an Indonesian population with suspected or known CAD abnormal adenosine stress MPI is an independent and potent predictor for adverse cardiovascular events and provides incremental prognostic value in cardiovascular risk stratification of patients with diabetes.

Does Love Forgive Everything? Sexual Assault as an Attack Which Is Normalized in Turkish Television Series

Encroachment, which can generally be defined as appropriation of the other’s right, comes first as one of the most traumatic incidents among sexual crimes. When the statistical data about rape are examined in Turkey, it is seen that the ratios of rape incidents are at an extent that cannot be underestimated. The problem of rape is covered in some series which are broadcast on TV and popular among wide range of audience in Turkey. Fatmagul’unSucu Ne?, Oyle Bir Gecer Zaman Ki and Iffet, which are among these series, are chosen as the sample in this study. Since it is certainly one of the important functions of media to raise awareness of the public, dealing with rape in series and films as a social problem is usual and even crucial. However, the basic issue here is how this incident is handled and what kind of message is given to the audience, who takes the main characters as model. The aim of this study is to explore how the rape incidents are covered and how the solution is reached in these aforementioned series. In this study, these three television series are examined through purposeful sampling method and also, the answers to the questions mentioned as the aims of this study are analyzed through a feminist perspective. As a result of this analysis, it has been found out that even though rape incident is one of the worst events a woman can experience in these series, it is turned into a crime that can be forgiven and the reason of forgiving is love.

Forgiving, a Way for Living Better From the Point of View of Quran; A Research

Background: The human being lives stressfully in the world full of hatred and enmity. We can replace the negative feelings such as anger, hatred and retaliation with positive feelings by pardon and forgiveness. Objectives: The aim of this study is to reflect upon the verses related to pardon and extract the points from these verses. Materials and Methods: By studying the verses related to pardon reflectively and reviewing several related articles, various meanings, reasons, cases, techniques, the effects of pardon and the relationship between the pardon and good life have been extracted. Results: Pardon often means forgiveness. But in verse 219 of Al-Baqara Sure, and verse 199 of Al-Araf Surah, it means balance and moderation. Of the reasons and also the aspects of techniques of pardon, we can mention ignoring the human's sins by God, forgiveness of God in spite of being the most powerful, kindness and being softhearted, trusting in Allah, and receiving the position of the patients. The cases of forgiveness include forgiving the unaware people, children and wives, granting the opportunity of reconstruction, pay the blood money, the oppression of others, ignoring wife by husband, retaliation, and financing (like giving and taking dowry). The effects of forgiving include benefitting from the kindness and forgiveness of Allah, his mercy, and friendship with human, receiving the position of the patients, the virtuous, the benefactors and repelling bad events. In some verses, the everlasting world is mentioned which suggests the relationship between the forgiving and good life. Considering the right forgiving is important. Forgiving is valuable while being in power. Conclusions: One of the most important perceptions in Islamic culture is forgiving. By applying forgiving rightly in this blatant life, we can live in immunity.

When bad gets worse: the amplifying effect of materialism on traumatic stress and maladaptive consumption

Our research explores the amplifying effect of materialism on the experience of traumatic stress and maladaptive consumption via both an Israeli field study and a U.S. national survey. Our field study assesses the moderating impact of materialism upon both traumatic stress and maladaptive consumption among participants from an Israeli town under terrorist attack vs. participants from an Israeli town not exposed to hostilities. Our survey examines the possible underlying processes behind these effects among a nationally representative sample of Americans. The Israeli study reveals that, when faced with a mortal threat such as a terrorist attack, highly materialistic individuals report higher levels of post-traumatic stress, compulsive consumption, and impulsive buying than their less materialistic counterparts. Our U.S. study suggests that these effects are likely due to the fact that materialistic individuals exhibit lower levels of self-esteem, which reduces their ability to cope with traumatic events. Thus, our results indicate that, in addition to its well-documented harmful direct effect on psychological well-being, materialism also exerts an indirect negative effect by making bad events even worse.

Lifetime Prevalence of Posttraumatic Stress Disorder in Two American Indian Reservation Populations

Posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) has been found to be more common among American Indian populations than among other Americans. A complex diagnosis, the assessment methods for PTSD have varied across epidemiological studies, especially in terms of the trauma criteria. Here, we examined data from the American Indian Service Utilization, Psychiatric Epidemiology, Risk and Protective Factors Project (AI-SUPERPFP) to estimate the lifetime prevalence of PTSD in two culturally distinct American Indian reservation communities, using two formulas for calculating PTSD prevalence. The AI-SUPERPFP was a cross-sectional probability sample survey conducted between 1997 and 2000. Southwest (n = 1,446) and Northern Plains (n = 1,638) tribal members living on or near their reservations, aged 15-57 years at time of interview, were randomly sampled from tribal rolls. PTSD estimates were derived based on both the single worst and 3 worst traumas. Prevalence estimates varied by ascertainment method: single worst trauma (lifetime: 5.9% to 14.8%) versus 3 worst traumas (lifetime, 8.9% to 19.5%). Use of the 3-worst-event approach increased prevalence by 28.3% over the single-event method. PTSD was prevalent in these tribal communities. These results also serve to underscore the need to better understand the implications for PTSD prevalence with the current focus on a single worst event.

Adverse Shocks and Economic Insecurity: Evidence from Chile and Mexico

This paper uses multinomial logit to analyze economic insecurity for Chile and Mexico from household surveys. It analyzes the effect changes in well‐being, age, health, wealth, employment status, gender, and education have on economic insecurity. The results show that the most significant variable is current exposure to adverse events, the second most significant is age, and the third is health. The current exposure to adverse events produces great anxiety and concern about and the inability to recover from these bad events. Older households assign higher probabilities to negative prospects and are thus subject to higher levels of economic insecurity. This also occurs when the household head is seriously ill. The effect of gender and wealth on negative expectations is very small, while education only affects Mexico, and self‐employment affects only Chile. Finally, the similarities between Chile and Mexico provide evidence of identifiable patterns for economic insecurity in Latin American countries.

What Factors Drive Systemic Risk during International Financial Crises?

We analyze the determinants of the contribution of international banks to both global and local systemic risk during prominent financial crises. We find no empirical evidence supporting the hypotheses that bank size, leverage, non-interest income or the quality of the bank’s credit portfolio are persistent determinants of systemic risk across financial crises. In contrast, our results show that global systemic risk in particular is predominantly driven by characteristics of the regulatory regime. We also confirm, for the subprime crisis, the hypothesis that the banks’ contribution to moderately bad tail events in the past predicts the financial sector’s crash risk.

Rwanda – lasting imprints of a genocide: trauma, mental health and psychosocial conditions in survivors, former prisoners and their children

BackgroundThe 1994 genocide of the Tutsi in Rwanda left about one million people dead in a period of only three months. The present study aimed to examine the level of trauma exposure, psychopathology, and risk factors for posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in survivors and former prisoners accused of participation in the genocide as well as in their respective descendants.MethodsA community-based survey was conducted in four sectors of the Muhanga district in the Southern Province of Rwanda from May to July 2010. Genocide survivors (n = 90), former prisoners (n = 83) and their respective descendants were interviewed by trained local psychologists. The PTSD Symptom Scale Interview (PSS-I) was used to assess PTSD, the Hopkins Symptom Checklist (HSCL-25) to assess symptoms of depression and anxiety and the relevant section of the M.I.N.I. to assess the risk for suicidality.ResultsSurvivors reported that they had experienced on average twelve different traumatic event types in comparison to ten different types of traumatic stressors in the group of former prisoners. According to the PSS-I, the worst events reported by survivors were mainly linked to witnessing violence throughout the period of the genocide, whereas former prisoners emphasized being physically attacked, referring to their time spent in refugee camps or to their imprisonment. In the parent generation, when compared to former prisoners, survivors indicated being more affected by depressive symptoms (M = 20.7 (SD = 7.8) versus M = 19.0 (SD = 6.4), U = 2993, p < .05) and anxiety symptoms (M = 17.2 (SD = 7.6) versus M = 15.4 (SD = 7.8), U = 2951, p < .05) but not with regard to the PTSD diagnosis (25% versus 22%, χ2(1,171) = .182, p = .669).A regression analysis of the data of the parent generation revealed that the exposure to traumatic stressors, the level of physical illness and the level of social integration were predictors for the symptom severity of PTSD, whereas economic status, age and gender were not. Descendants of genocide survivors presented with more symptoms than descendants of former prisoners with regard to all assessed mental disorders.ConclusionsOur study demonstrated particular long-term consequences of massive organized violence, such as war and genocide, on mental health and psychosocial conditions. Differences between families of survivors and families of former prisoners accused for participation in the Rwandan genocide are reflected in the mental health of the next generation.

Getting to Know The ‘Silent Accreditor’

Getting to Know The ‘Silent Accreditor’

Unrealistic optimism: East and west?

Following Weinstein’s (1980) pioneering work many studies established that people have an optimistic bias concerning future life events. At first, the bulk of research was conducted using populations in North America and Northern Europe, the optimistic bias was thought of as universal, and little attention was paid to cultural context. However, construing unrealistic optimism as a form of self-enhancement, some researchers noted that it was far less common in East Asian cultures. The current study extends enquiry to a different non-Western culture. Two hundred and eighty seven middle aged and middle income participants (200 in India, 87 in England) rated 11 positive and 11 negative events in terms of the chances of each event occurring in “their own life,” and the chances of each event occurring in the lives of “people like them.” Comparative optimism was shown for bad events, with Indian participants showing higher levels of optimism than English participants. The position regarding comparative optimism for good events was more complex. In India those of higher socioeconomic status (SES) were optimistic, while those of lower SES were on average pessimistic. Overall, English participants showed neither optimism nor pessimism for good events. The results, whose clinical relevance is discussed, suggest that the expression of unrealistic optimism is shaped by an interplay of culture and socioeconomic circumstance.

Deterministic Algorithms for the Lovász Local Lemma

The Lovász local lemma (LLL) [P. Erdös and L. Lovász, Problems and results on 3-chromatic hypergraphs and some related questions, in Infinite and Finite Sets, Vol. II, A. Hajnal, R. Rado, and V. T. Sós, eds., North--Holland, Amsterdam, 1975, pp. 609--627] is a powerful result in probability theory that informally states the following: the probability that none of a set of bad events happens is positive if the probability of each event is small compared to the number of events that depend on it. The LLL is often used for nonconstructive existence proofs of combinatorial structures. A prominent application is to $k$-CNF formulas, where the LLL implies that if every clause in a formula shares variables with at most $d \leq 2^k/e-1$ other clauses, then such a formula has a satisfying assignment. Recently, a randomized algorithm to efficiently construct a satisfying assignment in this setting was given by Moser [A constructive proof of the Lovász local lemma, in STOC '09: Proceedings of the 41st Annual ACM Symposium on Theory of Computing, ACM, New York, 2009, pp. 343--350]. Subsequently Moser and Tardos [J. ACM, 57 (2010), pp. 11:1--11:15] gave a general algorithmic framework for the LLL and a randomized algorithm within this framework to construct the structures guaranteed by the LLL. The main problem left open by Moser and Tardos was to design an efficient deterministic algorithm for constructing structures guaranteed by the LLL. In this paper we provide such an algorithm. Our algorithm works in the general framework of Moser and Tardos with a minimal loss in parameters. For the special case of constructing satisfying assignments for $k$-CNF formulas with $m$ clauses, where each clause shares variables with at most $d \leq 2^{k/(1+\epsilon)}/e - 1$ other clauses, for any $\epsilon\in (0,1)$, we give a deterministic algorithm that finds a satisfying assignment in time $\tilde{O}(m^{2(1+1/\epsilon)})$. This improves upon the deterministic algorithms of Moser and of Moser and Tardos with running times $m^{\Omega(k^2)}$ and $m^{\Omega(d \log d)}$, respectively, which are superpolynomial for $k=\omega(1)$ and $d=\omega(1)$, and upon the previous best deterministic algorithm of Beck, which runs in polynomial time only for $d\leq 2^{k/16}/4$. Our algorithm is the first deterministic algorithm that works in the general framework of Moser and Tardos. We also give a parallel NC algorithm for the same setting, improving upon an algorithm of Alon [Random Structures Algorithms, 2 (1991), pp. 367--378].

Anesthesia &amp; Analgesia by the Numbers

Anesthesia &amp; Analgesia by the Numbers

Do mood and the receipt of work‐based support influence nurse perceived quality of care delivery? A behavioural diary study

To examine the effect of nurse mood in the worst event of shift (negative affect, positive affect), receipt of work-based support from managers and colleagues, colleague and patient involvement on perceived quality of care delivery. While the effect of the work environment on nurse mood is well documented, little is known about the effects of the worst event of shift on the quality of care delivered by nurses. This behavioural diary study employed a within-subject and between-subject designs incorporating both cross-sectional and longitudinal elements. One hundred and seventy-one nurses in four large district general hospitals in England completed end-of-shift computerised behavioural diaries over three shifts to explore the effects of the worst clinical incident of shift. Diaries measured negative affect, positive affect, colleague involvement, receipt of work-based support and perceived quality of care delivery. Analysis used multilevel modelling (MLWIN 2.19; Centre for Multi-level Modelling, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK). High levels of negative affect and low levels of positive affect reported in the worst clinical incident of shift were associated with reduced perceived quality of care delivery. Receipt of managerial support and its interaction with negative affect had no relationship with perceived quality of care delivery. Perceived quality of care delivery deteriorated the most when the nurse reported a combination of high negative affect and no receipt of colleague support in the worst clinical incident of shift. Perceived quality of care delivery was also particularly influenced when the nurse reported low positive affect and colleague actions contributed to the problem. Receipt of colleague support is particularly salient in protecting perceived quality of care delivery, especially if the nurse also reports high levels of negative affect in the worst event of shift. The effect of work-based support on care delivery is complex and requires further investigation.