Backwardation Research Articles

Is normal backwardation normal? Valuing financial futures with a local index-rate covariance

Revisiting the two-factor valuation of futures contracts, we propose a new pricing model for financial futures and their derivatives. The linkage between the money market funding rate and the underlying asset price is stochastic and state-dependent, in compliance with investors’ arbitrage strategies. The model explicitly captures the impact of interest rate expectations in the marking-to-market feature of futures, as predicted by Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross (1981) theory. The backwardation vs. contango regime of financial futures depends on a new parameter, the contango factor, which paves the way for future empirical studies. Akin to the implied volatility of option contracts, the contango factor provides market participants with a universal gauge of futures contracts’ level of contango, consistent across futures markets and maturities. Our numerical simulations show significant deviations from the traditional cost-of-carry model of futures prices, with price deviations above 1% even for short-term futures contracts.

Functional Effectiveness of Commodity Futures Market: A Comparative Assessment of Agricultural and Metal Commodities

The study focuses on examining the price discovery process, short run disturbances and hedging mechanism of agricultural and metal commodities futures market for the period January 2010 to December 2018. Contango and normal backwardation have also been taken into deliberation for select commodities which are traded in MCX and NCDEX, India which is a valuable addition to the existing body of literature in derivatives market. Johansen’s co-integration, VECM, Granger causality test and OLS are employed for understanding the price discovery and constant hedging for select commodities. Further, existence contango and normal backwardation have been observed by comparing the spot and futures prices. It has been found that spot market is acting as a leader in the longer period and laggard in short run investors can be benefitted to take short run or long run investment decision.

Memoirs of Madness

In the mid-nineteenth century, reformers worked to transform the public's image of psychiatric institutions from the rattling chains of Bedlam to sunny gardens and sprawling hospitals. Many patients and ex-patients in the United States claimed that, to uphold this new image, administrators upkept one sparkling ward for visitors to see and kept poor, intellectually disabled, or behaviorally nonnormative patients hidden and neglected in abysmal back wards. Patient-writers challenged the image of the Potemkin asylum in memoirs that doubled as exposés with a twofold purpose: (1) to show readers the hidden parts of asylum life (including the interiority of people experiencing madness) and (2) to advocate for reform or abolition. This essay looks to one lesser-known patient-memoirist, Isaac Hunt, to ask, How do these writers acknowledge readers' desires for a sensational spectacle without replicating the objectifying dynamics of the Bedlam tour? What roles do disability, madness, stigma, and suspicion play in this encounter? Finally, how does one narrate an experience of madness? While memoirs like Hunt's have historically been framed as "psychotic" or "impaired," this essay argues that patient-memoirists often used literary experimentation to capture the ways that they experienced fluctuations in their sense of time, place, and self while in the asylum.

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN DIETARY FAT AND PHYSICAL FITNESS AMONG ATHLETES

Objective: to evaluate the relationship between dietary fats and physical fitness in young athlete of Pakistan. Methodology: An correlational study conducted in Pakistan Sports Board (PSB) in 2018, after the approval of Director Admin of Pakistan Sports Board (PSB), a total sample size of n=130 elite athletes (both male and females) were recruited from the camp for National games held in PSB through convenience sampling technique. The data was collected about the age, gender, BMI and physical fitness. Physical fitness was measured through following tests; back ward throw with 3kg medicine ball, 30 meter Speed Test, Single-leg hope three step test, Agility T test and 800 meter Endurance test. The pre camp dietary fat intake was calculated through online software Self Nutrition Data by entering the meal recipe and Nutrition Facts label was generated according to the nutrition labelling standard maintained by the FDA. The results were presented in terms of n (%), mean±SD and to determine association Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient was used. Results: The mean age of participants was 23.63±5.30 years. The results showed positive correlation of agility T test (sec) with saturated fat (r=0.180, p=0.040), mono unsaturated fat (r=0.199, p=0.023), poly unsaturated fat (r=0.187, p=0.033), Omega 3 fatty acids (r=0.187, p=0.033) and total fat intake(r=0.202, p=0.021). The 800 M endurance test was positively correlated with polyunsaturated fat (r=0.187, p=0.033), omega 6 fatty acids (r=0.182, p=0.038) and total fat intake (r=0.181, p=0.039). While leg strength test was found to be negatively correlated with monounsaturated fats (r=-0.174, p=0.048) and polyunsaturated (r=-0.175, p=0.047). Conclusion: Nutrition rich in dietary fats results in decreases performance and ability of athletes involved in agility and endurance training, while for those involved in strength training dietary fats may enhance their performance

Forced Convection Heat Transfer for Air Flow Across Fat Tubes Heat Exchanger (Dept.M)

Forced convection heat transfer for air side flow across flat tubes heat exchanger is investigated numerically and experimentally. The effect of inclination of flat tubes on the amount of heat transfer is investigated. Fluent 6.1 software program is used to solve this problem. Three proposed cases for inclination of tubes are studied. This first case is to make convergent and divergent channels for air flow (Case 1). The other two cases are tilting of flat tubes in forward (Case 2) and back ward (Case 3). Velocity and temperature distribution around the flat tubes for the studied cases are obtained. In turn, convection heat transfer coefficient and pressure drop for air side around flat lubes are calculated. An experimental apparatus is designed and constructed. Air is drawn through the wind tunnel from the surroundings to flow across one column of the tested tubes with different velocities. Two separated heating fluid units are used in the experimental work to perform different wall temperatures. The first unit is a refrigeration circuit, using R406A, as a working fluid. The air cooled condenser for this unit is considered the test section for this work and fixed inside the wind tunnel. The second unit is an open circuit, using steam as working fluid where steam is condensed inside the tested tubes. Three proposed cases for inclination of tubes in the theoretical work are manufactured tested and in the experimental work. The apparatus is equipped with the required sensors. The experimental and numerical results showed that the optimum angle of inclination for the proposed first and second cases is 4°. For convergent divergent construction of one row coil without fins (case 1), the obtained enhancement of convection heat transfer coefficient is about 46.9 % meanwhile in pressure drop increased by about 112%. The second proposed construction of tilting forward alt cubes in parallel with respect to horizontal, the enhancement in convection heat transfer coefficient is about 46 % against an increase in pressure drop by about 95%. There is an acceptable agreement between the numerical and experimental results. Empirical correlations to calculate average Nusselt number from the experimental work as a function of Reynolds number at optimum inclination angle or 4° are obtained. It is found that in case of convergent-divergent channels (inclination one tube toward clockwise direction and the next in counter-clockwise direction), and tilting all tubes in the forward direction considerable improvements are obtained but in case of tilting all tubes in the backward direction there is no improvement.

Machine Learning and Algorithmic Pairs Trading in Futures Markets

This study applies machine learning methods to develop a sustainable pairs trading market-neutral investment strategy across multiple futures markets. Cointegrated pairs with similar price trends are identified, and a hedge ratio is determined using an Error Correction Model (ECM) framework and support vector machine algorithm based upon the two-step Engle–Granger method. The study shows that normal backwardation and contango do not consistently characterize futures markets, and an algorithmic pairs trading strategy is effective, given the unique predominant price trends of each futures market. Across multiple futures markets, the pairs trading strategy results in larger risk-adjusted returns and lower exposure to market risk, relative to an appropriate benchmark. Backtesting is employed and results show that the pairs trading strategy may hedge against unexpected negative systemic events, specifically the COVID-19 pandemic, remaining profitable over the period examined.

NMDA receptors in the CeA and BNST differentially regulate fear conditioning to predictable and unpredictable threats

Considerable work demonstrates that Pavlovian fear conditioning depends on N-methyl-D-aspartate (NMDA) receptor-dependent plasticity within the amygdala. In addition, the bed nucleus of the stria terminalis (BNST) has also been implicated in fear conditioning, particularly in the expression of fear to poor predictors of threat. We recently found that the expression of backward (BW) fear conditioning, in which an auditory conditioned stimulus (CS) follows a footshock unconditioned stimulus (US), requires the BNST; the expression of forward (FW) fear conditioning was not disrupted by BNST inactivation. However, whether NMDA receptors within the BNST contribute to the acquisition of fear conditioning is unknown. Moreover, the central nucleus of the amygdala (CeA), which has extensive connections with the BNST, is critically involved in FW conditioning, however whether it participates in BW conditioning has not been explored. Here we test the specific hypothesis that the CeA and the BNST mediate the acquisition of FW and BW fear conditioning, respectively. Adult female and male rats were randomly assigned to receive bilateral infusions of the NMDA receptor antagonist, D,L-2-amino-5-phosphonovalerate (APV), into the CeA or BNST prior to FW or BW fear conditioning. We found that intra-CeA APV impaired the acquisition of both FW and BW conditioning, whereas intra-BNST APV produced selective deficits in BW conditioning. Moreover, APV in the BNST significantly reduced contextual freezing, whereas CeA NMDA receptor antagonism impeded early but not long-lasting contextual fear. Collectively, these data reveal that CeA and BNST NMDA receptors have unique roles in fear conditioning.

Women Writers and the Images of Women Representation in the Post-Colonial Literature. Case Study of Zuwaira Isa Jos and Her Struggles.

Women in Northern Nigeria although seemed and portrayed by many as naïve and back ward educationally, economically and politically, are blessed with talents and determination . These qualities make them able to struggle and overcome most of the cultural inhibitions; of gender discriminations and religious misconceptions that hinder them from participating in decision making and accessing other basic necessities for human development. They manage to break the silence and raise their voices through oral and written literature, where they lament and admonish the society against some cultural practices that are usually targeted at women folks. In this paper one of such women writers; Zuwaira Isa Jos, and her works are discussed.

GENEOLOGI HERMENEUTIKA HUKUM ISLAM (Fikih Kontekstual ‘Umar bin Al-Khaṭṭāb)

This paper analyzes the thought or contextual interpretation of ‘Umar Ibn al-Khaṭṭāb which is closely related to hermeneutics. In the Islamic thought tradition, hermeneutics as a method of interpreting the holy book has been done in the early Islamic era. If we look at back ward, the Prophet Muhammad himself had done it. However, because the term hermeneutics that has developed in the Western world, so it feel foreign to the Islamic world. One of the classical Islamic thinkers who wasprogressive thoughts and transcend his time in undesrtanding or interpreting the Qur’an was ‘Umar. This is the geneology of contextual interpretation developed by modern-cotemporary thinkers. In the periodezation of Islamic history, the thoght of ‘Umar can be categorized as classical hermeneutic, because it happened in the early of Islamic period. The thought of ‘Umar was very contextual and progressive. Therefore, it is not suprising to say that he was one of the early hermeneut of The Muslim.

Development of a Computerized Device for Evaluating Vestibular Function in Locomotion: A New Evaluation Tool of Vestibular Hypofunction.

To evaluate vestibular function in the clinic, current assessments are applied under static conditions, such as with the subject in a sitting or supine position. Considering the complexities of daily activities, the combination of dynamic activities, dynamic visual acuity (DVA) and postural control could produce an evaluation that better reflects vestibular function in daily activities.Objective: To develop a novel sensor-based system to investigate DVA, walking trajectory, head and trunk movements and the chest-pelvis rotation ratio during forward and backward overground walking in both healthy individuals and patients with vestibular hypofunction.Methods: Fifteen healthy subjects and 7 patients with bilateral vestibular hypofunction (BVH) were recruited for this study. Inertial measurement units were placed on each subject's head and torso. Each subject walked forward and backward for 5 m twice with 2 Hz head yaw. Our experiment comprised 2 stages. In stage 1, we measured forward (FW), backward (BW), and medial-lateral (MLW) walking trajectories; head and trunk movements; and the chest-pelvis rotation ratio. In stage 2, we measured standing and locomotion DVA (loDVA). Using Mann–Whitney U-test, we compared the abovementioned parameters between the 2 groups.Results: Patients exhibited an in-phase chest/pelvis reciprocal rotation ratio only in FW. The walking trajectory deviation, calculated by normalizing the summation of medial-lateral swaying with 1/2 body height (%), was significantly larger (FW mean ± standard deviation: 20.4 ± 7.1% (median (M)/interquartile range (IQR): 19.3/14.4–25.2)in healthy vs. 43.9 ± 27. 3% (M/IQR: 36.9/21.3–56.9) in patients, p = 0.020)/(BW mean ± standard deviation: 19.2 ± 11.5% (M/IQR: 13.6/10.4–25.3) in healthy vs. 29.3 ± 6.4% (M/IQR: 27.7/26.5–34.4) in patients, p = 0.026), and the walking DVA was also significantly higher (LogMAR score in the patient group [FW LogMAR: rightDVA: mean ± standard deviation:0.127 ± 0.081 (M/IQR: 0.127/0.036–0.159) in healthy vs. 0.243 ± 0.101 (M/IQR: 0.247/0.143–0.337) in patients (p = 0.013) and leftDVA: 0.136 ± 0.096 (M/IQR: 0.127/0.036–0.176) in healthy vs. 0.258 ± 0.092 (M/IQR: 0.247/0.176–0.301) in patients (p = 0.016); BW LogMAR: rightDVA: mean ± standard deviation: 0.162 ± 0.097 (M/IQR: 0.159/0.097–0.273) in healthy vs. 0.281 ± 0.130 (M/IQR: 0.273/0.176–0.418) in patients(p = 0.047) and leftDVA: 0.156 ± 0.101 (M/IQR: 0.159/0.097–0.198) in healthy vs. 0.298 ± 0.153 (M/IQR: 0.2730/0.159–0.484) in patients (p = 0.038)].Conclusions: Our sensor-based vestibular evaluation system provided a more functionally relevant assessment for the identification of BVH patients.

Comprehensive assessment of coronary pulse wave velocity in anesthetized pigs.

BackgroundCoronary stiffness represents a new paradigm for interventional cardiology and can be assessed by coronary pulse wave velocity (CoPWV). Assessing CoPWV is complex because of the coexistence of backward and forward waves.ObjectivesEvaluate the feasibility, repeatability, and capacity of methods assessing CoPWV to detect predictable velocity changes.MethodsCoPWV was measured from distal and proximal pressure guidewires in the left anterior descending artery of 10 pigs under general anesthesia. Four methods were studied: the tangent intersection method applied to the forward (FW) and backward (BK) waves, as well as the dicrotic notch (DIC) and template matching (TM) methods. All were evaluated at baseline, during various arterial pressure and heart rate conditions, during simulated flow limitation (balloon inflation), and after increasing coronary stiffness (stent insertion).ResultsAll the methods were significantly different between them (p ≤ .05) showing a systematic trend toward higher CoPWV when compared to the FW method (.05 < p<.10). Results were found to be significantly correlated only between the BK and FW methods and between the DIC and TM methods (p ≤ .05). CoPWV increased with arterial pressure increase, this increase being significant for the DIC and TM methods and partly for the FW method (p ≤ .05). Conversely, heart rate had no systematic impact on CoPWV. The lowest variability was found for the DIC and TM methods (p ≤ .05). Only the BK and TM methods remained applicable during flow limitation; stent increased CoPWV when measured by the BK method only (p ≤ .05).ConclusionAlthough CoPWV can be measured by various methods, the BK and TM methods seem the most appropriate for clinical studies.

Who Wins and Who Loses? Trader Returns and Risk Premiums in Agricultural Futures Markets

AbstractThe rise of commodity index traders (CITs) in the early 2000s provides a natural experiment to identify whether passive holding of long agricultural futures positions earns a positive risk premium. We use nearly a decade of daily nonpublic position data for all large traders to compute trading profits in twelve agricultural futures markets. Despite increasing price trends in a majority of markets, CITs were the biggest losers during the sample period, experiencing losses in nine out of twelve markets and an aggregate loss of $6.9 billion. This is just the opposite of the prediction of the theory of normal backwardation.

Structure–property relationships of aliphatic esters using topological descriptors and backward‐multiple linear regression method

AbstractIn the present investigation, quantitative structure–property relationship (QSPR) modeling was carried out on 48 aliphatic esters to develop a robust model for the prediction of thermodynamic properties such as the enthalpy of vaporization at standard condition (∆H°vap kJ mol−1) and normal temperature of boiling points ( K). Multiple linear regression (MLR) and backward (BW) stepwise regression methods were used to select the descriptors derived from the Chemicalize program to give the QSPR models. These models were used to delineate the important descriptors responsible for the properties of the aliphatic esters. The multicollinearity and autocorrelation properties of the descriptors used in the models were tested by calculating the variance inflation factor, Pearson correlation coefficient, and the Durbin–Watson statistics. Leave‐one‐out cross‐validation, leave‐group (fivefold)‐out, and external validation criteria (Q2F1, Q2F2, Q2F3, CCC, R2m) were proposed to verify the predictive performance of QSPR models derived by BW‐MLR analysis. The predictive ability of the models was found to be satisfactory. Thus, QSPR models derived from this study may be helpful for modeling and designing some new aliphatic esters and predicting their properties.

Analysis of the risk premium in the forward market for salmon

We analyse forward prices observed at the Fishpool market, and propose a two-factor continuous-time stochastic process for modelling the time dynamics. The data analysis reveals that the two factors can be assumed to be a non-stationary compound Poisson process and a stationary continuous-time autoregressive dynamics, describing the bumps observed in the forward curves. We use the model to analyse the risk premium in the forward markets, and find a negative premium in the long end of the market which is in line with the theory of normal backwardation. However, contracts with short time to maturity have a risk premium with randomly changing sign, pointing towards a hedging pressure also induced by the demand-side of the market.

Muscle activation and intermuscular coherence during forward and backward pedaling.

The purpose of this study was to investigate muscle activity and intermuscular coherence of the rectus femoris (RF) and biceps femoris (BF) during forward (FW) and backward (BW) pedaling. Sixteen healthy volunteers performed FW and BW pedaling in 30, 45, and 60 revolutions per minute (RPM), while electromyographic (EMG) signals of the RF and BF were recorded bilaterally to determine integral EMG and intermuscular coherence. BW pedaling showed a statistically significant larger EMG activity on the left BF (P = 0.023) in 30 RPM; on the left BF (P = 0.01), right BF (P = 0.05), and right RF (P = 0.006) in 45 RPM, and on the left BF (P = 0.014) and right RF (P = 0.011) in 60 RPM than FW pedaling. In 45 RPM, higher coherence was demonstrated on the left leg (P = 0.011) during the left flexor and right extensor phases and on the right leg (P = 0.043) during the right flexor and left extensor phases in BW compared with FW pedaling. In 60 RPM, higher coherence was observed on both legs (left, P = 0.037; right, P < 0.001) during the left flexor and right extensor phases in BW compared with FW pedaling. Our results suggest that BW pedaling increased the muscle activity of both biarticular muscles and intermuscular coherence.

Prevalence of Scabies at dermatology Department PMCH Hospital Nawabshah

Introduction: Scabies is a neglected tropical public health problem around the world. It is caused by the Sarcoptes Scabiei mite that infested under the skin. The prevalence has been noted as per year is 300 million patients over the world wide. Objectives:To determine the frequency of Scabies at PMCH Nawabshah. Methods: A cross sectional study has been carried out on 422 patients at Peoples Medical Hospital Nawabshah at outpatients Department of Dermatology. The technique of sampling was convenience. A structured questionnaire has been used for data collection and analysis. All data has been collected by researcher on diagnosed cases of scabies by skin specialists. Results: The study is showing prevalence 22.4% among skin problem persons. The mean age of participant 60.2.Sabies can occur at any stage of life The comparison of male and female individuals as 6610 (48%) and 6595 (52%). The marital status of the participants as; married, un-married, widower, divorced and widow was 260 (66.3%) ,118(27.9%),2(0.47%),1(0.23%) and 21(4.97%) respectively and high rate found in lower economic condition Conclusion: The prevalence of scabies at peoples Medical Hospital Nawabshah is 22.4% The prevalence of scabies high in developing countries and this found prominent in back ward areas. The high ratio of scabies is associate with limited resources of basic life. Scabies seems to be neglected tropical problem of health.

POLITICAL PARTICIPATION OF WOMEN IN GRAMPANCHAYAT OF ODISHA-A STUDY

The present study attempts to study the extent of the political participation of women in the functioning as well as the electoral process of panchayats and their problems. The study was conducted in July 2018 using a sample of 80 women respondents from kharida Binayakpur Gram Panchyat of Basudevpur Block in Bhadrak District of Odisha. The findings of the study revealed that political participation of women in the electoral process of the panchyat is rather satisfactory, but so far as assembly and parliament elections are concerned women have great apathy towards politics. The mala dominated society, culture and low level of education are greatly responsible for the back wardness of women.

Effects of Backward Walking Training with Task Orientation on the Functional Gait of Children with Spastic Hemiplegia

Purpose: This study examined the effects of backward walking training with task orientation on the functional walking ability of children with cerebral palsy. Methods: This study was a single-blinded, randomized controlled trial with a crossover design conducted at a single rehabilitation facili ty with cross-over to the other intervention arm following a two-week break. For a total of 12 children with spastic hemiplegia cerebral palsy, the forward walking training group (n=6) underwent training three times a week for three weeks, 40 minutes a day, and the back ward walking training group (n=6) was also trained under the same conditions. To identify the functional walking ability, variables, such as the walking speed, stride length, and step length, were measured using a walk analyzer (OptoGait, Microgate S.r.l, Italy). Results: Both groups showed significant increases in walking speed, stride length, and step length (p<0.01). The backward walking group showed more significant improvement in the walking speed from pre- to post-test (p<0.05). The gait characteristics were similar in the two groups (stride length and step length) but the walking speed in the backward walking group showed a mean difference be tween the positive effects higher than the forward walking group. Conclusion: Task-oriented backward walking training, which was conducted on the ground, may be a more effective treatment approach for improving the walking functions of spastic hemiplegia children than forward walk training.

VADDARS OF DHARWAD: A SOCIOLOGICAL STUDY

The aim this study is to describe the socio, economic, cultural organization of vaddar community ( bhovi). The study analysis the changes took place over the last 100 years their traditiona institution, customs, beliefs and value system,. Some of sociologist like Bailey (1958) Epsten (1962) Gouch (1952) and shrp (1952) have given their opinion on changes. The complex relation exists in socio economic, cultural aspects of society. I have discussed this relationship in two ways the one is on the base of frame work of socio economic cultural motives and another is socio cultural contexts and vaddars way of beliefs. The study has different views. It is not only a study has different views, it is not only a study of traditional socio, economic and cultural anthropology. ( malinowaski 1922,1944 for 1934,: Radcliff brown 1964, firth 1946 1959 and Tx 1953) the goal of this study is to acquire knowledge of socio economic and cultural life of society. And also it gives potential plans to economic and cultural development of society. The changes which took place in vaddar community should be the in separation to other back ward communities.

Commodity Convexity

We propose a novel measure, namely relative basis, as a more precise proxy for the convenience yield implied by the Theory of Storage. The relative basis, defined as the difference between the traditional near-term basis and a similarly defined longer-term basis, purges out the interference from the storage cost and financing cost. The relative basis dominates the traditional basis in terms of predicting subsequent commodity futures returns. In contrast, it cannot predict the returns of financial futures that have no inventory concern. Additional analysis further confirms that the return predictability of relative basis in commodity markets comes from the Theory of Storage instead of the Theory of Normal Backwardation.