Backcasting Methodology Research Articles

Participatory backcasting towards desirable co-produced mobility futures: A case study of MaaS in Greater Manchester

Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS) has emerged as a model supported by popular discourse on achieving greener, more efficient and equitable future mobility. While technological change is a primary driver for models of development, the policy pathways, implementation and implications of MaaS are complex and unclear. In this paper, we explore the implications and limitations of a participatory approach to co-produced MaaS futures in Greater Manchester (GM). We adapt a backcasting methodology involving two stakeholder workshops to develop shared future visions and action pathways. Our methodology includes a participatory approach to pluralistic vision development and the use of a Three Horizons method for backcasting. This approach provides the opportunity to explore multiple desirable futures and the formulation of action pathways without negating plausible future possibilities. The research identifies multiple policy and collaborative action areas while also revealing limitations in MaaS user agency and unaddressed sustainability concerns related to wider Smart City criticisms. Findings also suggest a lack of adequate theory within current MaaS frameworks to engage with uncertainty, change and adaptive capacity. Future areas of research include the expansion of current frameworks to incorporate alternative framings from planning and complexity theories already attempting to address these dimensions of futures.

Consolidating backcasting: A design framework towards a users’ guide

Backcasting has become a widely applied approach to address sustainability challenges when transformative changes are required. However, dispersed and contextualized knowledge of backcasting methodologies and practices needs to be systematized, codified, and synthesized to support researchers, commissioners, practitioners, and stakeholders in backcasting projects. In this paper, we address these issues by (i) concisely reviewing the evolution and current body of literature on backcasting and how this relates to other major types of futures and scenario studies and (ii) developing a design framework for researchers and practitioners that systematically covers all methodological choices with regard to key guiding questions to develop a backcasting methodology for a particular backcasting project. The developed design framework is based on four parts, characterized by the interrogatives when, which, how, and what, creating a comprehensive framework for describing a backcasting study.

Economics and the dreamtime revisited: Creating a truly Australian economic history?

AbstractThe Economics and the Dreamtime was a landmark in Australian Economic History where Noel Butlin elevated awareness of the central importance of Indigenous economic history. It was a sprawling inter‐disciplinary work that used economic tools to understand Indigenous society before first contact and in the early colonial period. This article revisits that book to provide a critical evaluation of the major contributions of Butlin's research on Indigenous Australians. His primary contribution was to make Indigenous people more visible in the Australian economy in the early colonial period. He created a unique backcasting methodology that allowed Indigenous population to be estimated in the first six decades of the colony based on depopulation from disease, resource loss and frontier violence. I argue that the two main shortcomings of Butlin's research is that his method used colonial estimates of the population and that the population estimates are not sufficiently geographically differentiated. The main criticism of Butlin's research in the literature is that it is too speculative. However, his methodological innovation allows considerable transparency in the assumptions used and can create a range of plausible estimates that give us a sense of the unreliability of the existing population estimates. Alternative methodologies based on estimating population densities in 1788 from anthropological evidence are historically point estimates, which do not provide a sense of how uncertain the estimates might be. The way forward for this debate is to combine Butlin's demographic backcast methodology with population density estimates that take into account the selective mortality from disease and frontier violence. Finally, in order to create a truly Australian Economic History, it is necessary to also augment the methodology to incorporate Indigenous perspectives into the analysis and to utilise a local geography that acknowledges the diversity of Indigenous Australia.

Business strategy pathways for short food supply chains: Sharing value between consumers and producers

Short food supply chains play a vital role in connecting local producers with consumers, promoting sustainability, supporting local economies, and providing access to fresh, high-quality products. However, their market is still underdeveloped due to the mismatching between consumer demand and producer supply.The aim of this work is to identify a common vision between producers and consumers in short food supply chains proposing key actions for an effective business strategy to improve alternative food systems at a territorial level. The strategic long-term vision to foster short food supply chains is based on a direct farmer-to-retailer model. Grounded on the case of an ancient grains supply chain located in Emilia-Romagna, Italy, this research relies on a mixed-method approach including quantitative and qualitative methodologies. A household survey conducted with a representative sample of 1122 Italian households allowed to identify four consumer profiles. Then, two focus groups conducted with 10 food supply chain stakeholders led to the identification of six thematic areas of action. By the backcasting methodology, ancient grains supply chain actors proposed a set of business actions to reach consumers' preferences. Finally, a two rounds Delphi conducted with 23 food supply chain experts allowed to validate the results and the 18 actions to be adopted from 2023 to 2030 for the business strategy pathway. The business strategy pathway can increase the local market presence of ancient grain products, helping producers to plan future business activities and disclose changes in consumer preferences or market conditions.

To innovate is clever, to anticipate is smart: towards new skills in Air Transport

Nowadays, automation is one of the major trends of the air transport industry: as a result, the role of humans in such complex socio-technical systems is due to evolve. People/workers could experience radical changes in their working routines, and in the ways they carry out their tasks. The identification of new skill-sets may be needed at the organisational and operational levels. The importance is not only on new skills for the job but on reskilling and upskilling. It is then vital to support this trend with adequate training addressing specific needs: to achieve an understanding of how the change will impact the context, the humans involved and the practices are essential; how people will perceive the increasing introduction of automation; what skills will be pivotal for the change. This paper presents the backcasting methodology used within the Skill-UP project to actively guide changes in complex contexts through the analysis and the assessment of new trends, future needs and radical changes of Air Traffic Control from a present-to-future perspective. The identification of new skill sets will be presented in section 4. In conclusion, the importance of training as a strategy to cope with the uncertainty of a radical organisational change is presented.

The relationship between perceived corruption and FDI: a longitudinal study in the context of Egypt

This paper investigates the dynamic relationship between perceived corruption and foreign direct investment (FDI) in Egypt during the period 1970–2019. Using a novel back-casting methodology, it extrapolates perceived corruption time series between 1970 and 1980. The results of the Johansen cointegration technique and the multivariate vector error correction model show a positive relationship between perceived corruption and FDI, supporting the “greasing the wheels” effect of corruption. This positive association can be explained by several factors, such as the cross-interdependence of rent-generating assets with perceived corruption and FDI, and the use of FDI data based on the balance of payments that has growing financial-flows and phantom-FDI components. The findings of this paper have important policy implications. Improving the fundamental governance structure in Egypt should be accompanied by a comprehensive investment facilitation strategy to compensate for the removal of “grease” from the “wheels”.

Brave New Worlds: Science Fiction and Transition Design

The worldbuilding practices of science fiction authors have the potential to play a key role in society, given that they involve the design and depiction of complex, alternative realities set in the future. This potential is acknowledged by Transition Design--an emerging area of practice that melds futures-based narratives, foresight, and systems-thinking, amongst other disciplines. Transition Design goes beyond social innovation to envision radically new images of the future, and pathways towards more sustainable systemic states. To facilitate the design of and transition towards sustainable futures, this Major Research Paper introduces the Seven Foundations of Worldbuilding: a model that integrates a new superstructure of complex systems with backcasting methodology.

Istraživanje mogućih scenarija energetske budućnosti Republike Srbije uz pomoć backcasting methodology i softvera Energovizija MB

The author of this paper, using modern backcasting methodology, which is intended for development planning, created original EnergovisionMB software, which can help investigate possible development scenarios in the energy sector and sustainable development, and tested it on several examples of good practice. With the help of this software, the author has created three possible scenarios for the energy future of the Republic of Serbia, depending on the quality and mass implementation of the energy efficiency program. The obtained results show that if the competent institutions of the Republic of Serbia do not start seriously implementing the existing development tools in all sectors of economy and society, it will face with energy and environmental collapse in 50-60 years.

Pathways to sustainable low-carbon transitions in an auto-dependent Canadian city

Can growth-oriented resource-intensive cities be redesigned as non-consumptive sustainable places in a climate constrained world? This research tests that proposition through a design exploration of the transformation of a 500-ha inner city industrial district in Calgary, Canada, to a sustainable low-carbon city district. The research is formulated with respect to three theoretical axis—theories of urbanism, complexity and transitions; three spatial moments of the production process—production, reproduction and consumption and three temporal moments of the production process—manufacture, use, and post-use. The spatial and temporal moments leverage models of, industrial ecology and circular economy, sustainable cities and derivatives including smart, post-carbon and eco-cities. We employ a participatory design and backcasting methodology informed by theories of path dependence/creation. We establish a set of performance criteria, conduct three rounds of participatory design explorations and follow a strategy of scale-up of existing technology, engineering and design precedents. We identify a set of eight barriers and associated mitigation strategies. These include the stigma of living adjacent to, and the cost to rehabilitate, industrial lands; spatial and cultural auto-dependence; fragmentation of land ownership; infrastructure financing; regional connectivity and path dependence of the planning process. We propose that in order to achieve socially, ecologically and economically sustainable low-carbon cities attention needs to be addressed to culturally transformative alternatives to automobility, new forms of cooperative and localized economy, provision of non-market modes of land development and democratic and regulatory reform. To conclude we reformulate our conceptual framework within three nested domains—socio-technical, econo-political and cultural–cosmological.

Combining backcasting and exploratory scenarios to develop robust water strategies in face of uncertain futures

Water management strategies in times of global change need to be developed within a complex and uncertain environment. Scenarios are often used to deal with uncertainty. A novel backcasting methodology has been tested in which a normative objective (e.g. adaptive water management) is backcasted within the context of exploratory scenarios that sketch four different plausible futures (Economy First, Policy Rules, Fortress Europe, and Sustainability Eventually). The main advantage of combining exploratory and normative scenarios is in the identification of robust actions: actions that are effective in the different socio-environmental contexts sketched in the exploratory scenarios. This paper has three objectives: (1) to present the methodology, focussing on its novel aspects (2) to test the methodology and evaluate its perceived success by analysing organiser and stakeholder feedback and (3) to analyse and evaluate the results, in order to study the impact of the exploratory scenarios on the backcasting results and the added value of robust actions. The methodology was successfully tested in 9 local and one regional case study in a water project water scenarios for Europe and for Neighbouring States (SCENES). Results showed that the exploratory scenarios influenced the content of the backcasts, thus making the identification of robust strategies possible. The list of robust strategies includes both technological and social/organisational strategies, highlighting the need for an integrated approach. The approach shows high potential, but as the methodology is in its infancy more research is needed, particularly in methods to facilitate and monitor information flow between exploratory scenarios and backcasts.

Enhancing the Transition Capability of Danish Biomass Technology By Applying a Futures Study Backcasting Methodology on the Biogas Sector.

This paper discusses how the Danish biogas sector can achieve the political goals set outby the Danish government, in order to turn around the currently weak implementation ofthe technology. Biogas technology provides many environmental and energy relatedbenefits, but the transition capability of the technology has so far not been supported by astable policy pushing the sector in the right direction. The paper argues that a moreholistic and consistent support for the biogas sector must be developed, enhancing itsindependence from shifting Danish policy regimes. This could be achieved by applying abackcasting methodology in combination with future research activities which areidentified by means of energy chain analysis. The paper stresses that future Danish biogasresearch should be applied all along the sector’s energy chain, and not just in parts of it,looking at enhancement of the transition capability within ‘Resources’,‘Technology/Conversion’ and ‘Distribution/End-use’. The future research activities,proposed in this paper are interconnected and thought backwards with the goal ofcreating reachable aims for achieving the political targets set forth before the year 2020and 2050.

Barriers in municipal climate change adaptation: Results from case studies using backcasting

An experimental case study approach using backcasting methodology with the involvement of stakeholders was applied to develop visions of two ideally climate-adapted Swedish municipalities 20–30 years ahead in time. The five visions created were examined as regards measures that decision makers at other levels in society need to take in order to make local adaptation possible. Dependencies on other levels in society are strong regarding supply of water and treatment of sewage, energy supply and cooling, the built environment and care for the elderly, showing the strong integration of organisations at various levels in Swedish society. Barriers to adaptation relate not only to how global companies, government agencies and regional authorities act, but also to the degree of privatisation in municipalities, where poor skills in public procurement pose a barrier to adaptation.

Using Backcasting Methodology in Decision-Making of Biomass Energy Development

The purpose of this paper is to introduce a methodology-Backcasting for policy makers in renewable energy development, with expect to enable the development of an alternative strategy and the facilitation of a more flexible and responsible policy agenda. Take biomass energy domain as a case to explain the application of this methodology, and multiple factors should be taken into account. The study indicates that China’s renewable energy is still in the transition period from research and development to industrial production, and the effective, scientific and timely decision-making from government policy makers is utmost crucial to the healthy development of renewable energy industry in China because it regulates the development path of this innovative industry. It is an innovation to link biomass industry development with urbanization strategy in China rural area in the long run.

Energy in Swedish industry 2020 – current status, policy instruments, and policy implications

The EU has established so-called 20–20–20 targets, which in relation to energy mean that each Member State shall improve energy intensity levels by 3.3% annually, leading to a reduced primary energy use of 20% by the year 2020, calculated from a projected level based on the primary energy use in 2005. Sweden has established a less ambitious target of 1.7% annual energy intensity improvement through 2020. The aim of this paper is to evaluate, ex-ante, the EU 2020 primary energy target for the Swedish industrial sector. An applied backcasting methodology is used. The assessment made in this paper is that actions that lead to between 31.6 and 33.2 TWh/year reductions in energy end-use are needed if the EU target is to be achieved. Results from this paper shows that the current energy policy instruments are not sufficient to the EU or Swedish targets. Estimations in this paper are that a primary energy target of about 22.3 TWh/year is reasonable. The paper concludes by presenting a roadmap on how the Swedish 2020 target can be achieved through: i) energy management; ii) energy-efficient technology; and iii) energy supply measures, with an approximate cost of 280–300 MEUR or 75–80 kWh per public EUR. Three major additional policy measures are needed compared with the current policy: including all energy carriers, not just electricity, in the Swedish long-term agreements program PFE; setting up networks; and making it possible for third parties, i.e., industry, to deliver excess heat into the monopolized Swedish district heating grids.

Backcasting scenarios for Finland 2050 of low emissions

PurposeThe objective of this paper is to present an example on how futures studies methodologies, especially backcasting, can be used to assist public policy formulation. Backcasting is particularly interesting method in this context, since it allows the key characteristics concerning the state of the future to be fixed according to the goals policymakers have set to achieve.Design/methodology/approachThe paper is a case study presenting the goals, progression and the results of the backcasting exercise of the Finnish Prime Minister's Office.FindingsThe backcasting methodology, as applied in the exercise presented in this paper, is a useful tool in public policy formulation. It is important to note, however, that in the way the exercise was carried out in this case, it is only possible to view future development through qualitative arguments. The key element for successful application of the method is the choice of expert group that produces the information.Originality/valueEven though backcasting seems to be very well suited for discussing and designing alternative ways of achieving predetermined policy goals, experiences of using this methodology in the policy context are quite rare in the scientific literature. This paper addresses this deficiency and presents experiences of one such case. These experiences should be of interest to those involved in long‐range strategy planning.

A roadmap towards a low-carbon society in Japan using backcasting methodology: Feasible pathways for achieving an 80% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050

The purpose of the study is to analyze feasibility and a roadmap of a low-carbon society in Japan by 2050, while satisfying required demands. Future technology roadmaps, CO2 emission pathways and energy mix transitions leading Japan are calculated using the AIM/Backcasting Model based on backcasting methodology with taking into consideration that one of the keys for technological market penetration is the preferences of consumers. Under the CO2 emission target of 80% reduction as compared to 1990 level by 2050, it is found from the results that the target is feasible in Japan by implementing actions toward low-carbon society as early as possible. From the perspective of minimizing the total costs, it would be best to target a reduction rate of 16–20% in 2020, 31–35% in 2030 and 53–56% in 2040 within the range of Scenarios A and B. During this process, major investment will be needed in the early stage of the analytical periods, especially in the residential, commercial and transport sectors. However, viewed in the long term, this can be recovered by reduction in energy consumption. Moreover, the analysis suggests that returns that balance the total investment may be possible.

GIS-based Backcasting: An innovative method for parameterisation of sustainable spatial planning and resource management

Mankind has been making predictions since the earliest recorded history. From the astrologers of antiquity to the climate specialists of today, all have attempted to make predictions about future events. These attempts include assessments of whether or not these outcomes are probable or possible, desirable or undesirable. This paper concentrates on describing a methodology for the development and analysis of scenarios by refining and expanding existing methods. The approach is called Backcasting and was conceptually developed to support sustainable decisions in the energy sector. Backcasting works backwards from the envisioned future goals to the present, setting milestones to achieve the desired objective. These milestones are small interim scenarios along the way between the future scenario, usually 20–50 years ahead, and the present situation. Our Backcasting methodology is implemented in a modelling environment based on Geoinformation-System (GIS-based) using the scripting language Python. The methodology is demonstrated for an example of urban sprawl in rural areas, which often results in high infrastructure costs, large commuting distances and long travel times. To act against environmental degradation of rural areas, sustainable planning has to be the “overarching goal”[5], and will be supported with the developed approach.

Combining participative backcasting and exploratory scenario development: Experiences from the SCENES project

Social, natural and cultural systems are changing rapidly, influencing the future of Europe's fresh waters. One of the drivers shaping this future is the implementation of the Water Framework Directive. Participatory scenario development is well-suited to the challenges posed by the WFD to develop a long-term view by involving stakeholders. In this paper we analyse the process and results of a series of stakeholder workshops to develop scenarios at pan-European level. Specifically, we aim at analysing the method and results of combining a backcasting methodology and exploratory scenario development process. Four exploratory scenarios (narrative storylines) were developed, in first instance based on a set of existing European scenarios. Results matched expectations; the process produced stories that are complex, integrated, and rich in detail. During the backcasting exercise, four timelines were constructed, each of which took one exploratory scenario as context. The backcasting process established a strong link with the exploratory scenarios by identifying a large number of obstacles and opportunities in the realisation of those timelines. An analysis across all backcasts yielded a list of 15 robust elements, i.e. elements that are potentially effective in all exploratory scenarios. A stakeholder questionnaire showed that overall there was a widespread satisfaction with both the process and the results. Stakeholders were satisfied with the overall methodology and the exploratory scenarios and somewhat more critical on the backcasting exercise and resulting robust strategies. Above all, we hope to have demonstrated that it is conceptually appealing, methodologically feasible, and practically useful to combine exploratory scenario development and backcasting analysis.

Japan roadmaps toward low-carbon society by backcasting: Optimal CO2 reduction pathways and investment timing for low-carbon technologies

In this paper we draw up future roadmaps for technologies, policies, and optimal investment timing toward the achievement of a low-carbon society (LCS) in Japan by 2050. Future pathways for Japan to follow are calculated using an analytical model based on a backcasting methodology. Early actions can lead to pathways for minimizing the costs toward a LCS in Japan. However, to take early actions, large investments will be needed at the initial stages. The investment requirements for the residential and commercial sector and transportation sector will be especially costly: The former reaching 2.5 trillion JPY annually from 2010 to 2025 and the latter reaching 2.5 trillion JPY annually from 2010 to 2015. There are four main advantages to early actions. (1) Technologies have learning-by-doing effects: The additional cost of reducing CO2 emissions will fall as the technologies spread. (2) If actions are delayed, learning-by-doing effects may fail to work sufficiently, resulting in higher total investment requirements for achieving a LCS. (3) No infrastructure can be built immediately; hence it would be difficult to switch suddenly to a LCS in the years just before 2050. (4) Future technological development has several uncertainties. If the development of one of the currently dominant technologies falls behind schedule, it will fail to spread as expected and CO2 emission targets will not be met. Early actions will open up new opportunities for the spread of alternative actions toward the LCS should a dominant technology fail in some way.

Soft energy paths in Japan: a backcasting approach to energy planning

Japan has recognized the need to make significant reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, including CO2, but Japanese energy policy is fragmented and ineffective in coping with the challenge. Highly controversial options have been included in its strategy. Against this background, the current Japanese energy policy is reviewed and alternative future options are proposed, with their implications examined in the real policy context. A backcasting methodology, which creates a normative vision and identifies policy paths to attain the vision, is identified as a highly relevant conceptual framework for the analysis. Four visions are presented, within which subsequent policy packages and detailed policy paths are created. Two-tier evaluation stages are set to validate the policy packages and paths, through discussion with key Japanese energy experts. The study provides an insight into the effectiveness of the methodology, and implications of the proposed visions and policy packages. A series of innovations are made, including the ‘policy road map’ as an effective tool that links the backcasting framework and strategic policy discussions.