Energy in Swedish industry 2020 – current status, policy instruments, and policy implications

Abstract

The EU has established so-called 20–20–20 targets, which in relation to energy mean that each Member State shall improve energy intensity levels by 3.3% annually, leading to a reduced primary energy use of 20% by the year 2020, calculated from a projected level based on the primary energy use in 2005. Sweden has established a less ambitious target of 1.7% annual energy intensity improvement through 2020. The aim of this paper is to evaluate, ex-ante, the EU 2020 primary energy target for the Swedish industrial sector. An applied backcasting methodology is used. The assessment made in this paper is that actions that lead to between 31.6 and 33.2 TWh/year reductions in energy end-use are needed if the EU target is to be achieved. Results from this paper shows that the current energy policy instruments are not sufficient to the EU or Swedish targets. Estimations in this paper are that a primary energy target of about 22.3 TWh/year is reasonable. The paper concludes by presenting a roadmap on how the Swedish 2020 target can be achieved through: i) energy management; ii) energy-efficient technology; and iii) energy supply measures, with an approximate cost of 280–300 MEUR or 75–80 kWh per public EUR. Three major additional policy measures are needed compared with the current policy: including all energy carriers, not just electricity, in the Swedish long-term agreements program PFE; setting up networks; and making it possible for third parties, i.e., industry, to deliver excess heat into the monopolized Swedish district heating grids.