Bab El Mandeb Research Articles

Russian diplomacy and the struggle around transportation corridors through the Middle East: plans and realities

The article is devoted to the issues of Russia's participation in the struggle for the passage of transport corridors from Europe to Asia through the Middle East. Recently, as part of the geopolitical struggle to move away from a unipolar to a multipolar world, we are increasingly talking about rapidly growing competition for access to goods, raw materials, energy resources and transport logistics, which affect the current global rivalry for the redistribution of the world. It is already becoming increasingly clear that whoever controls international routes controls international security in many ways. Corridors are not only world trade, but also the movement of fl eets, the transfer of troops and military equipment, and communication between different regions of the world. Passages through straits such as Bab el-Mandeb, Hormuz, and Malacca are a matter of international security. Blocking them can lead to armed conflicts on a global scale. For the Middle East, these are primarily confl icts over the routes of oil and gas delivery to Europe from the Persian Gulf and the Caucasus and around the creation of short transport corridors from Europe to Asia bypassing the Suez Canal and Africa. If the issue of laying a gas pipeline from Qatar to the EU through the Arabian Peninsula and the Middle East and from the Caucasus and Central Asia through Turkey to the EU was one of the reasons for the war in Syria, then the issue of creating a transport corridor from India to Europe through Arabia and Israel largely provoked the conflict in the Gaza Strip. And Russia is among the most active participants in this struggle for control of international transport corridors from Europe to Asia, trying to do so so as not to stay away from them.

Geopolitics of the Horn of Africa: Arab Countries’ Stance on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, with Special Focus on the GCC Position

The Horn of Africa holds a strategic position, bordering on the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden, the Indian Ocean, and the Nile region. The Bab al-Mandab Strait, which connects three continents – Asia, Africa, and Europe-lie within its ambit. Over the past decade, external powers have begun to take a heightened interest in this region. Consequently, security issues in this strategically vital area have become increasingly salient, and local conflicts, famines, the proliferation of terrorist groups and maritime piracy have all found their way onto wider regional and international agendas. The current conflict between Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt regarding the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is of particular significance in this new scenario. This paper explores the position of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and the general Arab stance on the dispute. It is worth noting that despite the considerable efforts made by Egyptian diplomacy to establish a unified Arab position on the Renaissance Dam issue, there are significant differences among Arab countries in regard to the issue. At the level of the GCC countries, the United Arab Emirates adopts a relatively flexible and neutral position, sometimes positioning itself as a mediator between the conflicting parties. Conversely, Kuwait maintains a firm stance in support of the Egyptian-Sudanese position, considering water security for Egypt and Sudan as a justifiable national security concern for the two countries. Saudi Arabia appears to be neutral in the conflict and emphasises that the African Union should play the primary role in resolving the issue. Even the two downstream countries, Egypt and Sudan, have failed to adopt cohesive stances on the issue. At the Arab Summit held in Algeria on 2 November 2022, significant differences between Sudan and Egypt emerged in the working of the final document, even though they had been intent on welding wider Arab support behind their conflict with Ethiopia. This paper explores the nature of, and the reasons behind, the differences between GCC countries and the broader Arab community regarding the Renaissance Dam issue. Furthermore, it examines the potential for developing a unified yet flexible Arab Gulf position which could help to lay the basis for a balanced and fair agreement between Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt on the Renaissance Dam issue.

Rift and plume: a discussion on active and passive rifting mechanisms in the Afro-Arabian rift based on synthesis of geophysical data

Abstract. The causal relationship between the activity of mantle plumes and continental break-up is still elusive. The Afro-Arabian rift system offers an opportunity to examine these relationships, in which an ongoing continental break-up intersects a large Cenozoic plume-related flood basalt series. In the Afar region, the Gulf of Aden, the Red Sea, and the Main Ethiopian Rift form an R-R-R triple junction within plume-related flood basalt series. We provide an up-to-date synthesis of the available geophysical and geological data from this region. We map the rift architecture in the intersection region by applying the difference in Gaussians to the topography and the bathymetry and interpreting vertical gravity gradients and Bouguer anomalies. With the aid of these methods we review the spatiotemporal constraints in the evolution of the different features of the plume–rift system. Our results show rough and irregular morphologies of the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea arms in contrast to the symmetric, continuous, and smooth Main Ethiopian Rift. The triple junction formed by the northeastward propagation of the Main Ethiopian Rift and developed simultaneously with the abandonment of the tectonic connection between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden through Bab al Mandab Strait. The triple junction was the last feature to develop in the plume–rift system and marked a tectonic reorganization. By this time, all rift arms were sufficiently evolved and the break-up between Africa and Arabia was already accomplished. We argue that the classical active and passive rifting mechanisms cannot simply explain the progressive development of the Afro-Arabian rift. Instead, we propose a plume-induced plate rotation, which includes an interaction between active and passive mechanisms. In this tectonic scenario, the arrival of the Afar plume provided a push force that promoted the rotation of Arabia around a nearby pole located to the northwest of the plate boundary, enabling the rifting and, ultimately, the break-up of Arabia from Africa.

Arming Sheīkh Saīd: Conflict and Cooperation in Italian and British Imperial Policy in the Arabian Peninsula and the Red Sea, 1927-1940

ABSTRACT After the Great War, Imam Yahya, the spiritual and temporal ruler of Yemen, established control over the Yemeni highlands and fought wars against his rivals to extend his power. Jacopo Gasparini, the governor of Italy’s Eritrean colony, increased Italian trade with Yemen, primarily by shipping arms to Imam Yahya. Italian influence in the Arabian peninsula worried British officials. Britain’s primary goal was to protect its imperial road through the Suez Canal and the Red Sea by ensuring that no European Power established itself on the eastern shore or on strategic islands of the Red Sea. In 1927, Italy and Britain signed the Rome Understanding, agreeing to limit their imperial competition in the peninsula. Both parties maintained the Rome Understanding and its successor agreement in the 1938 Easter Accords until the outbreak of the Second World War, although both violated its spirit and letter when convenient. In the latter half of the 1930s, Imam Yahya wanted to acquire naval cannon to defend Sheīkh Saīd, a promontory that overlooked the strategically important Bab al-Mandeb Strait. Both Italian and British officials resisted providing them, as both feared that the other could seize Sheīkh Saīd and use these cannon to bar the southern exit of the Red Sea. After lengthy negotiations, the Italians eventually relented and shipped four naval cannon to Imam Yahya to try to earn his favour before the outbreak of Anglo-Italian conflict in World War Two. The episode of arming Sheīkh Saīd shows the nature of conflict and cooperation in Anglo-Italian relations in the Arabian Peninsula and the ultimate failure to reconcile their imperial interests.

The Impact of International Media Coverage on the Yemeni Bab al-Mandab War After October 7, 2023: An Analytical Study of BBC and CNN Channels

The Impact of International Media Coverage on the Yemeni Bab al-Mandab War After October 7, 2023: An Analytical Study of BBC and CNN Channels

Djibouti: A strategic choke point in the Bab el-Mandeb region

Djibouti's strategic position at the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a crucial maritime chokepoint, linking the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, underscores its geopolitical significance. This narrow strait is essential for global trade, with a significant share of the world's oil and commercial shipments passing through. Djibouti’s location at this juncture enhances its role as a pivotal hub for international maritime traffic and naval operations. The geopolitical landscape in Djibouti is currently influenced by its relationships with global powers. The country hosts military bases for the United States, China, France, and Japan, each seeking to secure their interests in this vital region. The establishment of China’s first overseas military base in Djibouti signifies a notable shift in the balance of power, emphasising Djibouti's strategic importance on the global stage. These bases are crucial for safeguarding maritime routes, countering piracy, and managing regional conflicts. At the same time, they also prove to be a potential source of power struggle between great powers. In the contemporary period, it is important to reevaluate the importance of this region in resonance with China’s rising influence through trade relations and investments. The intersection of military, economic, and geopolitical interests in Djibouti along with its regional dynamics certifies its enduring strategic importance. The resurgence of piracy, involvement of the Houthi rebels and the ongoing Israel Hamas conflict also reassure the shift of power relations in the Arab region from the lenses of global security.

An Analysis of Yemen’s Geostrategic Significance and Saudi-Iranian Competition for Regional Hegemony

The geographical location of Yemen holds significant importance, as it offers various strategic, political, and economic benefits to regional and international stakeholders with competing interests. Yemen’s position in the Arabian Sea, Gulf of Aden, Red Sea, and other strategic islands gives it a direct vantage point on the Strait of Bab al-Mandab, which serves as a key gateway connecting the Indian Ocean and Arabian Sea to the Mediterranean Sea, thus controlling major trade and oil routes between the East and the West. Consequently, Yemen has become a battleground for competing regional powers seeking to assert their dominance. Saudi Arabia and Iran have been vying for control over Yemen’s strategic location to consolidate their regional influence and superiority. This article aims to examine the strategic importance of Yemen and the ambitions of Saudi Arabia and Iran that underline their interventions in Yemen.

Geopolitical Advantages of Arab Countries and their Impact on the Stability of the Arab Region 2001

The geopolitics means the linkage of geographical elements to the act and activities of policy-making and foreign policy of a state, and the geopolitics theories associated also with the politics of power and influence.
 The Arab countries possess a unique site in the map of the world since it linked three continents ( Asia, Africa and Europe ) ,it also overseeing universal straits(Gibralter, Aden ,Bab el Mandeb ,Hormuz and Suez Canal ) through which 70% of the world trade is passing , besides the wealth of fertile soil and mineral and diligent population.
 The Arabs states s geopolitics needs to activate and monopolize to achieve prosperity and power.
 The leaders and policy –makers of Arab states have to reread their geography and determine the vital points of their geopolitical position.

Somalia-Somaliland Relations: Assessing Scenarios for Negotiations and Averting Possibility of Fresh Crises in the Horn of Africa

This paper focuses on the Somalia-Somaliland unresolved politico legal issue on their relationship. The contestation between the two has been dragging for a long time as a domestic issue, but due to the growing interest of both western, (re)emerging eastern and middle eastern powers, the Somalia-Somaliland sovereignty dispute is getting a new momentum and started to involve regional geopolitics. Deep political division within Somaliland over the power and resource sharing precipitated by exclusionary politics and failure of democratization efforts as well as insecurity in Somaliland’s eastern regions has finally led to armed conflict and deadly confrontations in Lasanod in Early February 2023. Because of fragility and the sensitivity of the conflicting political agendas between Somalia including Puntland and Somaliland, it attracted the attention of the United Nations Security Council, and regional bodies. Traditionally, the Horn of Africa has always been volatile for political and security dynamics. Over the past five year, the region has been shaken by the Gulf crises, followed by the US-Chinese competition over the Bab al-Mandeb strait that connects red sea to the gulf and the Indian ocean. To avert possibility of fresh escalations that may lead to regionalizing the dispute, consolidating extremism, or importing international proxy, the paper will assess three potential scenarios as methods to pursue by both authorities and by the United Nations in search for a solution of the Somalia-Somaliland question.

China against US Imperialism in the Arabian Sea: The Case of Oman

: When Oman joined China’s Belt and Road Initiative to pursue economic diversification, the US intervened to stop it. Although the foundation stone for Chinese investment plans was laid in 2017, these projects were put on hold, while the US rushed to bolster its military presence in Oman. The article studies Chinese investment in Oman, accounts for what has developed so far, and highlights the reasons for which the US acted to stem the potential of non-oil development in Oman. The disruption of the China-Oman diversification project resembles the US’s targeting of China’s policy of expansion by mutual cooperation elsewhere, but with a twist: Oman sits close to two vital chokepoints, the Bab Al-Mandeb and the Hormuz straits. The article argues that such obstruction is central to the US’s mode of accumulation by militarism. Keeping Oman from auto-developing and building its autonomy makes of it a pliable client state ready to serve as an imperialist post to empire.

Effect Of Sea Moisture Content On Corrosion Hull Of A Warship Made By PT Pal Indonesia

Seawater temperature ranges from -2 0 c to 300 c. Low temperatures are usually found in seawater around the poles and on the deep seabed. Meanwhile, high seawater temperatures are found in the sea in the Arid area. The Red Sea and Bab El Mandeb have temperatures of about 290 c to 300. Corrosion is a subject matter that concerns various disciplines, or in other words, it connects elements of physics, chemistry, metallurgy, electronics and engineering. This study uses the literature review study method to collect, identify, evaluate the effect of seawater content on the corrosion of the hulls of warships made by PT Pal Indonesia. An effective corrosion control strategy should be selected with the selection of suitable coatings for the marine environment. Hull plating with paint has a special function to protect the construction of the hull, especially those located below the waterline and the construction of the ship above the waterline.

Volcanic passive margins and break-up processes in the southern Red Sea

We have mapped Oligocene to Quaternary volcanic sequences, emplaced across the Afar magmatic province (AMP: Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti, Yemen), by using 50 cm resolution Pleiades satellite images. Systematic and precise measurements of flow sequences between Djibouti and SW Yemen focus on variations in lava dips and dip directions. From these results, we are able to infer the volcano-tectonic architecture of the upper crust across the southern part of the Afar magmatic province and the evolution of crustal deformation over time. Our results provide evidence that post-trap volcanism within the Afar area was emplaced during the stretching of continental crust, mostly as seaward dipping reflector (SDR) -type volcanic wedges, commonly observed along volcanic passive margins. Compilation of our results with published ages and structures of volcanic sequences in western Afar and Djibouti allows us to map these SDR wedges along a 700 km-long crustal cross-section between the Ethiopia and SW Yemen escarpments. During the Late Oligocene to Lower Miocene, Inner SDR-type wedges developed during the formation of two crustal necking zones on either sides of an uplifted and weakly deformed crustal Danakil C-Block. Following this early extensional event, the C-Block was further stretched and thinned during the development of two transient continental rift axes, the Bab al Mandab to the East and the Afar axis to the West, thought to have been concomitantly active until ∼5 Ma. From Pliocene onwards, rifting focalized W of the Danakil Block. NE-ward diverging wedges of Inner SDRs developed during the Stratoïd volcanic event throughout the whole Afar Depression, along with an onset of continental extension at the tip of a westward propagating Aden rift. A late radical change in tectonics occurred when the Aden Rift propagated into the Afar, immediately before the onset of a slow-spreading oceanic system.

Sea-level change, palaeotidal modelling and hominin dispersals: The case of the southern Red Sea

We examine the likelihood of early human sea crossings of the southern Red Sea during Pleistocene low sea-level stands, using palaeotopographic reconstruction of coastlines, modelling of palaeo-tidal flows and simulation of passive movements using Lagrangian particles. Existing isotopic and geological data demonstrate that the marine connection between the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean has remained open for at least the past half million years, ruling out the possibility of a land crossing. Many authors have argued for the plausibility of a successful sea crossing during the Pleistocene as a southern route for human dispersal from Africa, especially for the dispersal of Homo sapiens. However, decisive evidence is lacking. Other authors have preferred the default northern route of land-based dispersal via the Sinai Peninsula as the more likely option and viewed the southern sea crossing as a barrier rather than a gateway, especially if tidal flow was much stronger through the narrowed sea channel at low sea levels. We use Fluidity, a finite element modelling procedure, to model tidal flows and assess their validity by comparison with modern tide-gauge data. To model palaeotidal flows, we use reconstructions of palaeoshorelines and coastal palaeotopography extending for 150 km from the Bab al Mandab Strait to the Hanish Sill region, which take account of eustatic, GIA and tectonic effects. We then simulate passive movements using Lagrangian particles and a 4th-order guided search Runge-Katta algorithm. We ran simulations for six days from three different starting points on the African shore and 13 different times in the tidal cycle. We show that crossing distances are much shorter during the Pleistocene than today with clear inter-visibility of the opposing shorelines, but that tidal currents were much stronger. We also show that the highest chances of successful crossing, involving passive rafting or drifting, with a duration of 3–4 days, are in the vicinity of the islands in the Hanish sill region. With directed rafting or swimming, the crossing times would be much shorter. We conclude that sea crossings would be easily accomplished during long periods of the glacial cycle, regardless of hominin status, especially given attractive terrestrial landscapes and environments on both sides of the southern Red Sea.

Hindrance effect of tides on water exchanges between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden

As a semienclosed marginal sea, the Red Sea connects with the open ocean through a narrow strait at its southern end, known as the Bab-al-Mandeb (BAM) strait. The water exchange between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden at the BAM strait is crucial for the water mass transformations and thermohaline circulation in the Red Sea as well as for nutrient supply to the open ocean. In this study, a three-dimensional high-resolution nonhydrostatic MIT general circulation model (MITgcm) was used to investigate the tidal influence on the water exchange in the BAM strait through simulations with and without tidal forcing. We found that the tidal effects on the water exchange in winter were insignificant; however, the summer intrusion of the Gulf of Aden Intermediate Water (GAIW) was strongly affected. When the simulation includes tidal forcing, the along-axis northern extension of the GAIW intrusion is reduced by u to 100 km and the monthly mean volume transport is decreased by 20% on average. Two actors that possibly contribute to the hindrance effects of tides in summer are (i) the tidal residual currents that propagate in a direction opposite to the pathway of the GAIW intrusion currents nd (ii) the enhanced vertical mixing at the pycnocline and near the benthic topography of the BAM strait, which triggers more instabilities along the pathway of the intrusion.

A statistical approach for identification of dust-AOD hotspots climatology and clustering of dust regimes over Southwest Asia and the Arabian Sea

Daily atmospheric composition and meteorological data from MACC and ERA-5 reanalysis, were combined to analyse the spatiotemporal variability of dust-aerosol optical depth (DAOD) and to identify the prevailing dust regimes using Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs) and Principal Component Analysis (PCA), respectively, over southwest Asia and the Arabian Sea from 2003 to 2012. The analysis reveals four DAOD regimes influenced by the relative positions of the monsoon low, persistent high-pressure systems and thermal lows and the associated wind regimes. The Southeast (SE) Arabia regime, is detected over the eastern Rub-Al Khali and Oman Deserts and is associated with cyclonic flows and low-pressure systems over the southeast Arabian Peninsula, while the highest DAOD are observed over the convergence zone of Shamal and monsoon winds. The Arabian Sea regime is associated with high dust presence over the marine environment originated from arid/desert lands in Saudi Arabia, Iran and Pakistan, and the concurrent action of monsoon, Shamal and Levar winds. The Thar regime is characterized by a deep thermal low over Pakistan and strong monsoon winds acting as density currents over the desert area, resulting in highest DAOD over NW India. The Aden Gulf regime, is characterized by a ridge stretched through Sudan to Bab al-Mandab Strait and a surface high-pressure system prevailed over the eastern Mediterranean and west Arabian Peninsula, resulting in anticyclonic pathway of dust plumes from the Arabian deserts and westerly dust flows from sources in Eritrea and Sudan that accumulate dust over the Gulf of Aden.

Circum-Saharan Prehistory through the Lens of mtDNA Diversity.

African history has been significantly influenced by the Sahara, which has represented a barrier for migrations of all living beings, including humans. Major exceptions were the gene flow events that took place between North African and sub-Saharan populations during the so-called African Humid Periods, especially in the Early Holocene (11.5 to 5.5 thousand years ago), and more recently in connection with trans-Saharan commercial routes. In this study, we describe mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) diversity of human populations from both sides of the Sahara Desert, i.e., both from North Africa and the Sahel/Savannah belt. The final dataset of 7213 mtDNA sequences from 134 African populations encompasses 470 newly collected and 6743 previously published samples, which were analyzed using descriptive methods and Bayesian statistics. We completely sequenced 26 mtDNAs from sub-Saharan samples belonging to the Eurasian haplogroup N1. Analyses of these N1 mitogenomes revealed their possible routes to the Sahel, mostly via Bab el-Mandab. Our results indicate that maternal gene flow must have been important in this circum-Saharan space, not only within North Africa and the Sahel/Savannah belt but also between these two regions.

Glacial isostatic adjustment in the Red Sea: Impact of 3-D Earth structure

Sea-level history in the Red Sea region has commonly been interpreted as an accurate proxy for global mean sea level (GMSL), which can be used to constrain global ice volumes and inform a diverse range of regional paleoclimate studies. Previous modeling work has demonstrated, however, that glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) processes may introduce significant departures from GMSL in this region. The GIA signal is a complex combination of deformational, gravitational, and rotational effects arising from shifting ice and water surface loads and consists of long-wavelength effects superimposed by a short-wavelength signal associated with “continental levering” – a response to local meltwater loading. In this study, we revisit the effects of GIA in the Red Sea region using Earth models characterized by 3-D variations in mantle viscoelastic structure and lithospheric thickness, focusing on the period from Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to present day. We find that the presence of the Red Sea Rift and low-viscosity upper mantle acts to amplify sea-level rise associated with continental levering, yielding a more pronounced rise for sites toward the center of the Red Sea during deglaciation in comparison to GMSL. In contrast, coastal sites experience a net GIA-induced sea-level fall that acts in opposition to the GMSL rise. Furthermore, while the maximum departure from GMSL occurs close to LGM for northern sites, the GIA signal can peak as late as 14 ka for southern sites. Simulations based on 3-D Earth models tend to show a smaller departure from GMSL than 1-D predictions for most coastal sites, including at the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb at the mouth of the Red Sea, and typically peak at ∼10 m. The opposite is true for sites close to the rift: at these locations the difference between the 1-D and 3-D simulations can reach ∼20 m. We therefore conclude that any mapping from local sea level to GMSL is both location and time dependent and cannot be captured by a simple linear scaling.

Disruption of maritime trade chokepoints and the global LNG trade: An agent-based modeling approach

Maritime chokepoints are key corridors in the global supply chain because they connect waterbodies, countries, and regions worldwide with few alternative routes. In case of closure (as the blockade of the Suez Canal in March 2021), the energy supply is substantially affected. Therefore, clear and safe passage through these chokepoints plays a critical role in energy transportation, global economy, and sustainable development. This study uses Agent-Based Modeling to develop an LNG market model and simulate the disruption of three main chokepoints: Panama Canal, Suez Canal / Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and Malacca Strait. After validating the computational model with the actual historical data, the model shows the chokepoints blockade effects on changing the LNG trade and exports from suppliers. The implications are immediate. In general, countries should work together to secure maritime trade routes, retain clear and safe maritime corridors, establish potential passages as alternatives to these chokepoints where possible, and decentralize LNG plants to have access from or to different maritime routes. Each importer should integrate their gas markets with pipelines networks, search for domestic gas resources, and diversify energy sources to decline energy dependency and gas imports from remote producing areas.

The Strait of Bab El-Mandeb: stage of geopolitical disputes

Situated between Yemen to the Northeast and Djibouti and Eritrea to the Southwest, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is the closest area between the Arabian Peninsula and the Horn of Africa and connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. Thirty-two kilometres wide, the strategic value of the Bab El-Mandeb Strait is associated with the fact that it is the shortest sea route between the Mediterranean Sea and the Indian Ocean. According to data from the2019US Energy Information Administration, 6.2 million barrels of crude and refined oil flowed daily across the Bab el-Mandeb Strait toward Europe, the United States of America and Asia in 2018. On the other hand, a2017 report byChatamHouse identified 14 chokepoints that it considered critical to global food security, with the Bab ElMandeb Strait being one of the most relevant. This article aims to analyze the ongoing geopolitical disputes in this region, particularly between the USA, which maintains a strong structure, and the emerging powers, China, and Russia, which are positioning themselves to strengthen their presence. The results show that this competition, at the global level, exists and is even in an upward cycle.

Advective pathways and transit times of the Red Sea Overflow Water in the Arabian Sea from Lagrangian simulations

The present study investigates the advective pathways and transit times of virtual particles released in the Red Sea outflow area as a proxy for the poorly understood spreading of the Red Sea Overflow Water (RSOW) in the Arabian Sea. This work uses the Parcels toolbox, a Lagrangian framework, to simulate tens of thousands of trajectories under different initial conditions. Six different Lagrangian simulations are performed at isobaric and isopycnal surfaces within the RSOW layer. All simulations are based on the eddy-rich GLORYS12 reanalysis that merges almost all in-situ (temperature–salinity) and satellite observations collected over the last two decades into a dynamical framework. This study shows that GLORYS12 reproduces relatively well the climatological seasonal cycle of the RSOW to the Gulf of Aden and essential characteristics of the exchange at the Strait of Bab al-Mandab. Statistical comparisons between synthetic trajectories and RAFOS floats in the Gulf of Aden corroborate the quality of GLORYS12 velocity fields used for the Lagrangian simulations. Six main advective pathways are uncovered (by order of preference): Southwest, Northwest, Socotra Passage, Central, Eastern, and Southern. Trajectories from Argo floats give observational support for some of these paths. Although most particles are exported out of the Arabian Sea off Somalia, the simulations reveal robust connectivity of the RSOW to the Arabian Sea interior and its eastern boundary. The fact that particles have long trajectories in the interior increases the potential of RSOW mixing with the fresher and oxygen-poor ambient waters. Thus, these pathways may have profound implications for the salt and oxygen budgets in the Arabian Sea and beyond since the RSOW is also part of the global overturning circulation and exported out of the Indian Ocean via the Agulhas Current. Transit time distributions indicate that it takes about six months for outflow-originated particles to spread over the entire Gulf of Aden and one to three years to be exported along the western boundary, toward Somalia (Socotra Passage and Southwest pathways) and off the Yemeni–Omani coast (Northwest Pathway). In contrast, reaching the eastern boundary takes much longer. North of 14°N, the most frequent time is around 10–15 years, and about 20–25 years at the southeastern Arabian Sea. Hence, the RSOW can often carry oxygen to the western boundary but not to the eastern basin. This may contribute to the eastern shift of the Arabian Sea Oxygen Minimum Zone, a subject that deserves investigation.