Average Sea Level Research Articles

Short-Term Tide Gauge Records from One Location are Inadequate to Infer Global Sea-Level Acceleration

Long records of sea level show decadal and multi-decadal oscillations of synchronous and asynchronous phases, which cannot be detected in short-term records. Without incorporating these oscillations, it is impossible to make useful assessments of present global accelerations and reliable predictions of future changes of sea level. Furthermore, it is well known that local sea-level changes occur also because of local factors such as subsidence due to groundwater or oil extraction, or tectonic movements that may be either up or down. Limited data from limited areas of study are, therefore, unsuitable for making predictions about the whole world sea level. Yet, people continue to make such predictions, often on an alarming scale. Here, we use one example to illustrate the problems associated with trying to make sea-level predictions based on a short record (25 years) in a limited region. Linear and parabolic fittings of monthly average mean sea levels (MSL) of global as well as different local (United States Atlantic Coast, United States Pacific Coast) data sets of long tide gauge records. It is clear from the analyses of the tide gauges of the “NOAA-120”, “US 39”, “PSMSL-162”, “Mitrovica-23”, “Holgate-9”, and “California-8” data sets and the United States Pacific and Atlantic coasts that the sea level has been oscillating about the same almost perfectly linear trend line all over the 20th century and the first 17 years of this century. It is of paramount importance to discuss the proper way to assess the present acceleration of sea levels. This can not be done by focusing on the short-term upward oscillations in selected locations. The information from the tide gauges of the United States does not support any claim of rapidly changing ice mass in Greenland and Antarctica. The data only suggest the sea levels have been oscillating about the same trend line during the last century and this century.

Applying GIS for Vulnerability Assessment of Coastal Ecosystems in Hai Phong City

Abstract: Economic developments in coastal zone in Hai Phong city such as industrial zones, seaports have significant impacts on living space and environment of ecosystems. Especially in climate change theme as the rising of average temperature and global mean sea level, the ecosystems here are at high risk of vulnerability. Vulnerability assesment of ecosystems is very important to detect the risk of future ecosystem degradation, which helps to define the timely measures to preserve and restore them.
 Based on the study of natural and socio-economic conditions affecting the environment of ecosystem, the research developed indicators to evaluate the vulnerability of ecosystems which are divided into three groups: sensitivity, exposure, and adaptive capacity. These indicators after normalization are the inputs for mapping vulnerability assessment of ecosystems through GIS tools. The vulnerability are divided into five levels: very low, low, medium, high and very high.

Effects of vegetation type on surface elevation change in Liaohe River Delta wetlands facing accelerated sea level rise

Rising sea levels threaten the sustainability of coastal wetlands around the globe. The ability of coastal marshes to maintain their position in the intertidal zone depends on the accumulation of both organic and inorganic materials, and vegetation is important in these processes. To study the effects of vegetation type on surface elevation change, we measured surface accretion and elevation change from 2011 to 2016 using rod surface elevation table and feldspar marker horizon method (RSET-MH) in two Phragmites and two Suaeda marshes in the Liaohe River Delta. The Phragmites marshes exhibited higher rates of surface accretion and elevation change than the Suaeda marshes. The two Phragmites marsh sites had average surface elevation change rates at 8.78 mm/yr and 9.26 mm/yr and surface accretion rates at 17.56 mm/yr and 17.88 mm/yr, respectively. At the same time, the two Suaeda marsh sites had average surface elevation change rates at 5.77 mm/yr and 5.91 mm/yr and surface accretion rates at 13.42 mm/yr and 14.38 mm/yr, respectively. The elevation change rates in both the Phragmites marshes and the Suaeda marshes in the Liaohe River Delta could keep pace and even continue to gain elevation relative to averaged sea level rise in the Bohai Sea reported by the 2016 State Oceanic Administration, People’s Republic of China projection (2.4–5.5 mm/yr) in current situations. Our data suggest that vegetation is important in the accretionary processes and vegetation type could regulate the wetland surface elevation. However, the vulnerability of coastal wetlands in the Liaohe River Delta need further assessment considering the accelerated sea level rise, the high rate of subsidence, and the declining sediment delivery, especially for the Suaeda marshes.

Dynamics of sea level and land on the Black Sea coast during the twentieth and twenty-first centuries

Trends in the sea level and land on the Black Sea coast were explored by using the average annual sea level data on the set of stations in the period from 1874 to 2015. The common regular feature of temporal variability of interannual fluctuations in the Black Sea was the dominance of wave-like rise with varying intensity stages. The value and intensity of interannual tectonic shifts of coastal land on the Black Sea were estimated during the same period with using the method of water leveling. It is shown that uneven subsidence of coastal land is a mirroring of the sea-level rise. Herein, the processes that are taking place in the coastal land and on the sea bottom are determining the fluctuations in sea level. Long-term variability of the sea level fluctuations on long-term time-series stations (140 years) had the following stages: 1875—1925 — weak lowering with intensity of about – 0,02 to – 0,16 cm/ year; 1926—1965 — intensive sea-level rise + 0,30 cm/year; 1966—1995 — growth with smaller intensity + 0,20 cm/year; 1996—2015 — again lowering with intensity – 0,09 cm/year. The stages of sea level fluctuations on short-term stations are also synchronized in the last decade. The stable lowering of average heights of sea level in the 1996—2015 years was found on 7 of the 10 analyzed stations, and on other 3 stations, the tendency of reducing the intensity of level growth was observed. The short and sharp of sea level and similar fallings of the sea bottom were found in series of average annual data. These disturbances were observed nearly simultaneously on all the analyzed stations with quasi decade frequency and had cycle time 3—4 years (sometimes up to 5 years) and amplitude up to 10—17 cm (usually 12 cm). Sometimes the discrete peaks of the sea level (as soon as fallings of the sea bottom) were observed in pairs

Sea Level Rise and Impacts on Maritime Zones and Limits

As the oceans warm and ice melts, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (ipcc) in its Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) now predicts a global average sea level rise of up to one meter by 2100. AR5 also emphasizes that sea level rise will have “a strong regional pattern, with some places experiencing significant deviations of local and regional sea level change from the global mean change.” These predictions pose serious and possibly existential threats to the inhabitants of low-lying islands and coastal areas, and pose challenges for the international legal system to respond in an orderly and humane way to these novel situations. In 2012, the International Law Association (ila) established a new Committee to look specifically at these issues. This article looks at the work undertaken by the Committee to date regarding the law of the sea aspects of its mandate and identifies some considerations for its future work.

A Climate Change Assessment via Trend Estimation of Certain Climate Parameters with In Situ Measurement at the Coasts and Islands of Viet Nam

This study presents results on an assessment of climate change in the nearshore and coastal areas of Viet Nam through an evaluation of trends of certain climatic parameters (air temperature, sea water temperature, sea level, and number of typhoons landed at the Vietnamese coast by year) using time series data of hydro-meteorological records at the coasts and islands of Viet Nam. The method used for the trend evaluation is the Mann–Kendall test ran at the 5% significance level and Spearman rank correlation coefficient. It was found that there is an extremely likely increasing trend of air temperature for almost all observation stations at the coasts and islands of Viet Nam. However, it was unable to confirm a general trend for sea surface water temperature; except for very few stations in semi-closed waters, there is no clear trend in annual average sea water temperature at a majority of stations. Additionally, there is an extremely likely rising trend of sea level at a majority of stations with reliable data, but the rates of increase are very different for different stations. The reasons for discrepancies in the trend of annual average sea water temperature and sea level at different stations are still not understood, but it seems that an assessment of the vertical movement of the ground surface at the stations is necessary to have an accurate assessment of the rate of sea level rise due to climate change and of the influence of general circulation in the East Viet Nam Sea on the trend of sea water temperature in that location. It is also found that there is a likely decreasing trend in the frequency of typhoons landed at the Vietnamese coast; however, this trend might not be due to climate change, but to climate variability.

Estimating sea level rise for Vietnam East Sea

Sea level rise for Vietnam East Sea in the 21st century was determined under both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Changes in sea level of the Vietnam East Sea due to dynamic and thermosteric processes was estimated using results of different Atmosphere - Ocean General Circulation Model (AOGCMs) under the prescribed method in the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Changes in sea level due to ice melting and land water storage was determined using a transfer function for global water balance based on the contribution of each sea level rise contributing component for different regions. Changes in sea level as a result of the vertical motion of the Earth’s crust due to changes in the Earth’s cryosphere was determined using the ICE5G models. The results showed that for the RCP 8.5 scenario, by the end of the 21st century, the average sea level rise is 76 cm, with estimated values varying between 52 cm and 106 cm at the 5% and 95% confidence intervals, respectively. For the RCP 4.5 scenario, the average sea level rise is 52 cm, with values of 33 cm and 75 cm at the 5% and 95% confidence interval, respectively. The sea level rise scenario determined for the Vietnam East Sea is slightly higher in comparison with the globally estimated results in AR5.

Identificación de riesgos por desastres naturales en las cuencas hidrográficas Matasnillo (Panamá) y Goascorán (Honduras), y su relación con el cambio climático utilizando Tecnologías de Información Geográfica

Honduras y Panamá están caracterizados por precipitaciones intensas y de larga duración, tormentas, fuertes descargas eléctricas, inundaciones, incendios de masas vegetales, trompas marinas, tsunamis, episodios de la presencia de El Niño, La Niña y de derrames de sustancias peligrosas. El presente trabajo se desarrolla en el marco del Programa Universitario para la Gestión Integral del Riesgo de Desastres y Adaptación al Cambio Climático en Centroamérica(PRIDCA) coordinado por el Consejo Superior Universitario Centroamericano y financiado por la Agencia Suiza para el Desarrollo y la Cooperación -COSUDE-, y donde la Universidad Nacional Autónoma de Honduras y la Universidad Marítima Internacional de Panamá a través de un proyecto interuniversitario han decidido desde una perspectiva de investigación científica y tecnológica, establecer estrategias y acciones para la reducción de riesgos de desastres naturales en las cuencas hidrográficas de los Ríos Matasnillo, Golfo de Panamá, y la cuenca del Río Goascorán, Golfo de Fonseca, Honduras; y la relación del cambio climático que además comprenda un eje transversal de involucramiento y apropiación del proceso por parte de los actores claves en las zonas de estudio, mediante el desarrollo de una metodología que facilite la identificación, el análisis y la clasificación de riesgos producto de la identificación de amenazas y vulnerabilidades en el área de las cuencas seleccionadas a través de la aplicación de tecnologías de Información Geográfica, elaborando además propuestas y recomendaciones para minimizar riesgos identificados como altos en base a profundidad de la amenaza.

General Circulation and Principal Wave Modes in Andaman Sea from Observations

Objectives: This study intends to describe the Andaman Sea circulation and investigate the dominant modes of variability in the basin. Analysis/Observations: The domain experiences stronger South-westerly winds from May to September and relatively weaker North-easterlies from November to February. A strong negative Ekman pumping along the north coast of Indonesia is observed during Summer. The transport of water across the straits of Andaman and Nicobar Islands (ANI) is computed by simple mass balance and is found to be in phase with the monthly averaged Mean Sea Level Anomalies (MSLA) of Andaman Sea. There occurs high surface outflux through Great channel and Ten-Degree channel in Summer. In April and October, rate of transport through the straits is maximum. During the same months, meridional surface currents intensify along the eastern boundary of the basin and are associated with signatures of downwelling. Findings: Intense down welling occurs to the north coast of Indonesia during Summer, locally forced by south-westerlies. There occurs large influx of water into Andaman Sea between April and November through the straits between the islands. Equatorial Wyrtki jets remotely force Kelvin waves of downwelling nature in the basin during April and October. The circulation in Andaman Sea is characterised by gyres or vortices, which is the manifestation of Rossby waves of semi-annual mode. The basin has a characteristic 120-day mode of westward propagating long Rossby wave packets which reflect from the coast of ANI as eastward propagating short Rossby waves. Novelty: The first attempt to completely describe the dynamics of Andaman Sea circulation exclusively from observations.

STUDY OF SEA LEVEL RISE USING SATELLITE ALTIMETRY DATA IN THE SEA OF DUMAI, RIAU, INDONESIA

The impact of the climate change and global warming has hit the entire world, particularly the coastal areas such as the Dumai coastal area which is mainly caused by the sea level rise. Sea level rise is one of the important global issue today. It has been caused by ice melting at the poles, climate extreme event, and land subsidence. This increases the vulnerability effect in coastal areas which threatens human life, especially those living in coastal regions. Sea level rise can be forecasted by satellite imagery like ENVISAT, Topex/ Poseidon, Jason1 and Jason2. Sea level rise was calculated using a linear regression. Monitoring of sea level rise in the sea of Dumai was conducted over a period of 21 years (1993-2014) by taking data from 6 stations. The results show that the average sea level rise reaching 5.33 mm/year happened in Dumai. The rate of SLR lies between 4.72 mm/year to 5.66 mm/year. In 2050, Dumai, Riau is predicted to have an additional sea level of 0.19 m, 0.46 m in 2100 and 0.72 m in 2150. based on the predicted results, dumai should prepare plans to mitigate the rising of sea levels.

Greenland and Antarctica Ice Sheet Mass Changes and Effects on Global Sea Level

Thirteen years of GRACE data provide an excellent picture of the current mass changes of Greenland and Antarctica, with mass loss in the GRACE period 2002–2015 amounting to 265 ± 25 GT/year for Greenland (including peripheral ice caps), and 95 ± 50 GT/year for Antarctica, corresponding to 0.72 and 0.26 mm/year average global sea level change. A significant acceleration in mass loss rate is found, especially for Antarctica, while Greenland mass loss, after a corresponding acceleration period, and a record mass loss in the summer of 2012, has seen a slight decrease in short-term mass loss trend. The yearly mass balance estimates, based on point mass inversion methods, have relatively large errors, both due to uncertainties in the glacial isostatic adjustment processes, especially for Antarctica, leakage from unmodelled ocean mass changes, and (for Greenland) difficulties in separating mass signals from the Greenland ice sheet and the adjacent Canadian ice caps. The limited resolution of GRACE affects the uncertainty of total mass loss to a smaller degree; we illustrate the “real” sources of mass changes by including satellite altimetry elevation change results in a joint inversion with GRACE, showing that mass change occurs primarily associated with major outlet glaciers, as well as a narrow coastal band. For Antarctica, the primary changes are associated with the major outlet glaciers in West Antarctica (Pine Island and Thwaites Glacier systems), as well as on the Antarctic Peninsula, where major glacier accelerations have been observed after the 2002 collapse of the Larsen B Ice Shelf.

Decoupling of nutrient element cycles in soil and plants across an altitude gradient.

Previous studies have examined the decoupling of C, N, and P under rapid changes in climate. While this may occur in different environment types, such climactic changes have been reported over short distances in mountainous terrain. We hypothesized that the decoupling of C, N, and P could also occur in response to increases in altitude. We sampled soil and plants from Mount Gongga, Sichuan Province, China. Soil C and N were not related to altitude, whereas soil P increased with altitude. Soil N did not change with mean annual temperature (MAT), mean annual precipitation (MAP), vegetation and soil types, whereas soil P varied with MAT and vegetation type. Plant C remained constant with increasing altitude; plant N exhibited a quadratic change trend along the altitude gradient, with a turning point at 2350 m above average sea level; and plant P decreased with altitude. MAP mostly accounted for the variation in plant P. MAT was responsible for the variation of plant N at elevations below 2350 m, whereas MAT and vegetation type were the dominant influential factors of plants growing above 2350 m. Thus, the decoupling of C, N, and P in both soil and plants was significantly affected by altitude.

A probabilistic approach to 21st century regional sea-level projections using RCP and High-end scenarios

Sea-level change is an integrated climate system response due to changes in radiative forcing, anthropogenic land-water use and land-motion. Projecting sea-level at a global and regional scale requires a subset of projections - one for each sea-level component given a particular climate-change scenario. We construct relative sea-level projections through the 21st century for RCP 4.5, RCP 8.5 and High-end (RCP 8.5 with increased ice-sheet contribution) scenarios by aggregating spatial projections of individual sea-level components in a probabilistic manner. Most of the global oceans adhere to the projected global average sea level change within 5cm throughout the century for all scenarios; however coastal regions experience localised effects due to the non-uniform spatial patterns of individual components. This can result in local projections that are 10′s of centimetres different from the global average by 2100. Early in the century, RSL projections are consistent across all scenarios, however from the middle of the century the patterns of RSL for RCP scenarios deviate from the High-end where the contribution from Antarctica dominates. Similarly, the uncertainty in projected sea-level is dominated by an uncertain Antarctic fate. We also explore the effect upon projections of, treating CMIP5 model ensembles as normally distributed when they might not be, correcting CMIP5 model output for internal variability using different polynomials and using different unloading patterns of ice for the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets.

Miocene relative sea level on the New Jersey shallow continental shelf and coastal plain derived from one-dimensional backstripping: A case for both eustasy and epeirogeny

Onshore drilling by Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Legs 150X and 174AX and offshore drilling by Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) Expedition 313 provides continuous cores and logs of seismically imaged Lower to ­Middle Miocene sequences. We input ages and paleodepths of these sequences into one-dimensional backstripping equations, progressively accounting for the effects of compaction, Airy loading, and thermal subsidence. The resulting difference between observed subsidence and theoretical thermal subsidence provide relative sea-level curves that reflect both global average sea level and non-thermal subsidence. In contrast with expectations, backstripping suggests that the relative sea-level maxima in proximal onshore sites were lower than correlative maxima on the shelf. This requires that the onshore New Jersey coastal plain has subsided relative to the shelf, which is consistent with models of relative epeirogeny due to subduction of the Farallon plate. These models predict subsidence of the coastal plain relative to the shelf. Although onshore and offshore sea-level estimates are offset by epeirogeny, the ampli­tude of million-year–scale Early to Middle Miocene sea-level changes seen at the New Jersey margin is generally 5–20 m and occasionally as great as 50 m. These events are interpreted to represent eustatic variations, because they occur on a shorter time frame than epeirogenic influences. Correction for epeiro­genic effects largely reconciles differences between onshore and offshore rela­tive sea-level estimates and suggests that backstripping provides a testable eustatic model for the Early to Middle Miocene.

Surface elevation change and susceptibility of coastal wetlands to sea level rise in Liaohe Delta, China

The Liaohe Delta in China is an ecologically and commercially important wetland system under threat from sea level rise and marsh subsidence. Sediments deposited in coastal marshes could offer wetlands a potentially important means for adjusting surface elevation with rising sea level, yet coastal wetland stability in Liaohe Delta is not well understood due to limited data from long-term experiments. In this study, wetland surface elevation and vertical accretion were measured from 2011 to 2015 using a surface elevation table (SET) and feldspar marker horizons in two Phragmites and two Suaeda marshes receiving Liaohe River water. The analysis shows that the Phragmites marshes exhibited higher rates of marsh accretion and elevation change than the Suaeda marshes. The two Phragmites marsh sites had average surface elevation change rates at 8.8 and 9.3 mm yr−1, vertical accretion at 17.4 and 17.6 mm yr−1, and shallow subsidence at 8.6 and 8.3 mm yr−1. The average rates of elevation change, vertical accretion, and shallow subsidence at two Suaeda marsh sites were 5.8 and 6.3 mm yr−1, 13.6 and 14.8 mm yr−1, and 7.8 and 8.5 mm yr−1, respectively. The trends suggest that coastal marshes in Liaohe Delta are experiencing changes in average soil elevation that range from a net increase of 0.3 mm y−1 to 6.9 mm y−1 relative to averaged sea level rise in Bohai Sea reported by the 2016 State Oceanic Administration People's Republic of China projection (2.4–5.5 mm y−1), which indicated that the four wetland sites would adjust to the sea level rise and even continue to gain elevation, especially for the Phragmites sites. Nevertheless, the vulnerability of coastal wetlands in Liaohe Delta need further assessment considering the accelerated sea level rise, the high rate of subsidence, and the declining sediment delivery owing to anthropogenic activities such as dam constructions in the river basin.

Impact of sea-level rise on groundwater salinity at the development area western delta, Egypt

Climate change effects are expected to raise the average sea level. It is widely assumed that this raise will increase saltwater intrusion processes in coastal aquifers. There are four scenarios for sea level rise (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5), which were assumed in the year 2014 by the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2014). The two extreme scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) are considered in this study to examine the impact of the expected changes in the Mediterranean Sea level on groundwater salinity at a relatively new development area in Egypt at the west of the Nile Delta. Rising in sea level would destroy parts of the protective offshore sand belt, which has already been weakened by reduced sediment flows resulting from the construction of dams in the Nile. Without this sand belt, water quality in coastal freshwater lagoons will be altered, and recreational tourism and beach facilities will be inundated. The tools of Geographic information systems and Numerical simulations, using the software “ArcMap” and “FeFlow” respectively are used. The simulations are conducted in 3D using digital elevation model. For three scenarios of sea level rise (RCP2.6, RCP8.5 and the scenario of no rise in sea level), two different ways for groundwater extraction rates are considered: the first is the actual extraction rate, and the second is the extraction rate at the initial condition in the year 1990. The simulations show that the effect of global sea level rise in the period from the year 1990 up to 2100 appears clearly through the coastal topography with relatively low level elevation adjacent to the shoreline. A shift of the interface is expected up to the year 2100 by a maximum of 43km covering an area of 1980km2 according to scenario RCP2.6, and by a maximum of 57km covering an area of 2870km2 according to scenario RCP8.5. Overexploitation of groundwater leads to an increase in salinity concentration up to 5000mg/l and covers about 10% of the study area.

Non-stationary rainfall and natural flows modeling at the watershed scale

Summary In areas in which natural water resources are variable over time, tools that determine the probability distribution of hydrological variables are required to evaluate various management alternatives. In this article, a stochastic simulation framework of hydrological variables through atmospheric pressure modeling is proposed. This methodology employs the mean value of the atmospheric pressure in the winter to differentiate the wet, medium and dry years in terms of rainfall and flow at different temporal scales. Monthly mean and daily maximum rainfall and flow data series are stochastically replicated. To achieve this replication, a non-stationary parametric mixture distribution model that combines a Weibull and a Normal distribution is fitted to the univariate distribution of the atmospheric pressure. This model includes interannual variability through two covariables: extraterrestrial solar radiation and the NAO index. This model is applied to the Guadalete River Basin in southern Spain, in which the river flow regime is influenced by the highly seasonal precipitation regime typically found in the Mediterranean area. The non-stationary parametric mixture distribution model with the two covariables showed a good fit to the observed sea level pressure, displaying an important reduction on the BIC. A good correlation was obtained between the average sea level pressure in winter and the accumulated precipitation and flow ( r = −0.8 for monthly values and −0.6 for maximum daily values). The statistical similarity indicated that the synthetic series of precipitation and flow preserved the distribution trends in the observed data. The identical methodology can be applied in other watersheds once the direct relationship between the mean atmospheric pressure and the hydrology of the area is known.

A Hierarchical Bayesian Model based Nonstationary Frequency Analysis of Extreme Sea Level under Climate Change along the Shorelines in South Korea

ABSTRACT Kim, Y.-T.; Cho, H.-R.; Uranchimeg, S.; Lee, S.O., and Kwon, H.-H., 2016. A hierarchical Bayesian model based nonstationary frequency analysis of extreme sea level under climate change along the shorelines in South Korea. Proceedings of the 14th International Coastal Symposium (Sydney, Australia). Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue, No. 75, pp. 745–749. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208. Urban development and population increases have continuously progressed in the coastal areas in Korea; thus, it is expected that vulnerability towards coastal disasters by sea level rise (SLR) would accelerate. This study investigated the trend of the sea level data using Mann-Kendall (MK) test, and the results showed that the increasing trends of annual average sea level at 17 locations were statistically significant. For annual maximum extremes, seven locations exhibited statistically significant trends. In this study, nonstationary frequency analysis for the annual extreme data, together with ave...

Validation of Empirical Wave Run-up Formulas to the Polish Baltic Sea Coast

Aniśkiewicz, P.; Benedyczak, R.; Furmanczyk K., and Andrzejewski P., C.S., 2016. Validation of Empirical Wave Run-up Formulas to the Polish Baltic Sea Coast. In: Vila-Concejo, A.; Bruce, E.; Kennedy, D.M., and McCarroll, R.J. (eds.), Proceedings of the 14th International Coastal Symposium (Sydney, Australia). Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue, No. 75, pp. 243–247. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208.The empirical wave run-up formulas were adapted in previous researches by many authors. One of them adapted the formula for dynamic Polish Baltic Sea coast (Paprotny et al., 2014). In the present paper the available formulas were validated using the camera images and measurements made by GPS RTK along the profile located in Dziwnowek during calm weather conditions. The experiment was carried out in Dziwnowek from June 1st to August 31st 2014. The range of water level was varied from −0.25 to 0.44 m above average sea level elevation from real sea level elevation data from Institute of Meteorology and Water Management and about −0.405 to 0.402 above average sea level elevation from hydrodynamic model M3D. The results of wave run-up with a 2% probability of occurrence were created using real and modelled elevation data to compare results. Significant wave height was about 0.01–1.61 m and peak wave period varied from 2.01 to 8.39 seconds. The camera provides images during the 15 minutes events in every hour sampled at 1 Hz. The highest wave run-up was identified along the profile in every available picture. Data from camera were compared with modelled range of beach inundation. The research was done in the framework of SatBaltyk project. The number of project is: POIG.01.01.02-22-011/09.

Hierarchical Bayesian Model Based Nonstationary Frequency Analysis for Extreme Sea Level

Urban development and population increases are continuously progressed in the coastal areas in Korea, thus it is expected that vulnerability towards coastal disasters by sea level rise (SLR) would be accelerated. This study investigated trend of the sea level data using Mann-Kendall (MK) test, and the results showed that the increasing trends of annual average sea level at 17 locations were statistically significant. For annual maximum extremes, seven locations exhibited statistically significant trends. In this study, non-stationary frequency analysis for the annual extreme data together with average sea level data as a covariate was performed. Non-stationary frequency analysis results showed that sea level at the coastal areas of Korean Peninsula would be increased from a minimum of 60.33 mm to a maximum of 214.90 mm by 2100.