Average Mean Temperature Research Articles

Maxent Modeling for Predicting the Potential Geographical Distribution of Castanopsis carlesii under Various Climate Change Scenarios in China

Castanopsis carlesii (Hemsl.) Hayata. 1917 is an established subtropical evergreen broad-leaved tree species with rapid growth rates and a strong plasticity to environmental changes. It is widely distributed in East Asia; however, it is unclear how climate change influences the distribution of this tree species. Based on 210 valid occurrence records and 10 environmental variables, we used maximum entropy model (Maxent) to predict its potential geographical distribution under present and three future climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP245 and SSP585) in both the 2050s and 2070s, and determined the influence of climate on the distribution of C. carlesii. The area under the curve (AUC) value of the simulated training and the test were 0.949 and 0.920, respectively, indicating an excellent forecast. The main climatic factors affecting the distribution of C. carlesii are mainly precipitation, especially that of the driest month (Bio14, 75.5%), and annual precipitation (Bio12, 14.3%); its total contribution rate is 89.8%. However, the impact of average mean temperature is lesser in comparison (Bio1, 5.7%). According to the present-day predictions, C. carlesii has a suitable habitat of 208.66 × 104 km2 across most of the tropical and subtropical regions south of the Yangtze River. The medium and high suitability areas are mainly in Taiwan, Fujian, Jiangxi, Guangdong, Hainan and Guangxi Provinces. With the climate projected to warm in the future, the distribution area of C. carlesii exhibited a tendency of northward expansion along the Qinling–Huaihe line, mainly manifested as the increase in low and medium suitable areas. The area of high-suitable areas decreased significantly under the three climate scenarios both for the 2050s and 2070s, and only a few areas showed contraction of suitable areas. Therefore, expansion areas can be used for cultivation or introduction trials, while contraction areas require enhanced preservation and collection of genetic resources. Our findings provide a theoretical basis for formulating the adaptation and protection strategies to cope with future climate change as well as theoretical guidance for the introduction, cultivation and sustainable development of C. carlesii.

Impact of growth of a medium-sized Indian coastal city on urban climate: A case study using data fusion and analytics

In India, unlike mega cities, little is known about how the growth of small and medium-sized cities (SMSC) impacts urban climate. Further, such impacts are amplified in coastal settings. We use data fusion and analytics to study how the growth of Thiruvananthapuram, a typical medium-sized coastal city in India, modifies the urban climate. The datasets used are National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) land products, NASA Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA-2) and Indian Meteorological Department surface observations contained within the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) global compilation of in-situ observations. The study found a ∼ 48% increase in urban and built-up land cover over the last two decades, causing an increase in albedo, surface roughness and a decrease in emissivity and moisture availability. Decreasing moisture availability most affected air temperature, with urban growth adding to large-scale climatic trends of increasing monthly mean daily maximum (+1 °C), minimum (+0.4 °C) and average temperatures (+0.22 °C). Sea-breeze circulation strengthened in response to increasing coastal urbanization and the inland propagation modified with increased convergence and (potentially) rainfall, near the coast.

Development and Evaluation of VCO Based Herbal Hair Tonic

Urban sprawl, fueled by rapid population growth and recent heat waves, has negatively impacted the microclimate and outdoor human comfort in cities. This phenomenon is directly linked to global warming, resulting in a range of environmental problems that are difficult to address. In the past decade, the Vesu area of Surat has experienced rapid commercial and residential development, surpassing other areas of the city. In an attempt to understand UHI predictions, Envi-met 3D modeling was utilized to compare the temperature difference of the study area to that of the last decade. Weather data was obtained from the Surat Meteorological Department website. The findings indicate that the average mean temperature of the study area in January of the past decade was 22.62 ºC, whereas simulation results show a temperature of 28.25 ºC. These results demonstrate that the construction materials and unorganized development of the city negatively affect the atmosphere's nighttime cooling rate, leading to a warmer environment in comparison to rural areas

Water Management for Conservation and Ecosystem Function: Modeling the Prioritization of Source Water in a Working Landscape

Conservation in working landscapes is an important aspect of stream restoration. Landowners with agricultural water rights are increasingly adding instream flow as a beneficial use of their allocated water. However, stream restoration projects commonly focus on the quantity of water dedicated to the environment and overlook water quality. For cold-water ecosystems, the preservation of natural thermal regimes is a key to conservation efforts in the face of a changing climate. This study explored the effects of increasing stream flow using alternative water sources (e.g., instream runoff versus offchannel springs) to enhance cold-water stream habitat on a working cattle ranch. Using empirical data to create a steady-state stream flow and water temperature model, we evaluated temperature benefits and management trade-offs for ecological and agricultural water use. The modeled results showed that the source of water and the method used to deliver water to the channel affected the quality and extent of cold-water habitat. Offchannel spring water cooled 7-day average maximum temperatures and 7-day average mean temperatures by as much as 3.7°C and 2.9°C, respectively, but only when potential offchannel aquatic habitat was sacrificed for mainstem habitat. When offchannel, spring-fed habitat was provided, the value of spring water to the main channel decreased. Our findings suggest that source water thermal quality is of paramount importance for enhancing ecosystem function and improving cold-water habitat in working landscapes. In addition, the restoration of a historic spring channel may provide added ecosystem benefits by enhancing aquatic habitat for cold-water species.

Rubber leaf fall phenomenon linked to increased temperature

Understanding phenological responses of vegetation to temperature have become increasingly important as the global climate changes. We examined how changes in temperature may be associated with the occurrence of rubber leaf fall, a new phenomenon affecting many rubber (Hevea brasiliensis) plantations. Spatial and temporal characteristics of the start and end of the rubber season for six study areas from four major rubber-producing countries were investigated using satellite imagery and 10 years of surface temperature data from 2010 to 2019. These study areas were Palembang (1154 ha) in South Sumatra, Indonesia; Medan (2667 ha) in North Sumatra, Indonesia; Ratnapura (581 ha) in Sri Lanka; Johor (195 ha) in Malaysia; Kedah (803 ha) in Malaysia; and Tboung Khmum (2421 ha) in Cambodia. Our results showed that there was a significant upward trend in average mean temperature for Palembang, Medan, Ratnapura and Johor, and that these trends were associated with a statistically significant difference in rubber defoliation and refoliation events. This shift also coincides with the reported occurrence of Rubber Leaf Fall disease from these study areas. In contrast, no change in temperature trends or phenological shift was identified for the two other study areas, and the disease was not reported in these areas. Overall, warming resulted in delayed phenological timing in most locations. While additional research is required to exclude alternative explanations, there is a strong possibility that climate change is responsible for the emergence of the new Rubber Leaf Fall disease.

Overwintering diapause and survival of western Leucotaraxis argenticollis, a promising biological control agent for Adelges tsugae, in the eastern United States

Successful use of biological control agents can be improved with a thorough understanding of the life history, survival, diapausing strategy, and synchrony with the host in the introduced range. Introduction of a novel organism can be influenced by abiotic factors that can impact the interactions with their target prey. Leucotaraxis argenticollis (Zetterstedt) and Le. piniperda (Malloch) (Diptera: Chamaemyiidae) are two species of predatory fly showing promise in the biological control program to manage the invasive hemlock woolly adelgid, Adelges tsugae (Annand)(Hemiptera: Adelgidae), in eastern North America. Field releases of these Leucotaraxis spp. began in 2015, but little is known about their potential for survival or how they overwinter. In an effort to explore Le. argenticollis establishment potential, laboratory reared puparia were observed at seven sites, across a latitudinal gradient, on the east coast and one site on the west coast (native range) of North America from July 20, 2020, to June 1, 2021. Leucotaraxis piniperda puparia were included at five sites and observed to be diapausing in a different stage or using a different cue. Adult Le. argenticollis emerged in spring 2021, after successfully overwintering as puparia, with a subset emerging in summer-fall 2020 at all observation sites. Results suggest that 1) the interaction of mean daily fall maximum temperatures and relative humidity has the most impact on survival, 2) mean daily minimum fall temperatures influence induction/maintenance of diapause, and 3) mean average daily fall temperatures and relative humidity impact survival to spring emergence. Substantial variation in survival and facultative diapause of Le. argenicollis was observed along a latitudinal gradient, potentially influencing predator establishment, supporting the need for continued research.

Consistent Nest Site Selection by Turtles across Habitats with Varying Levels of Human Disturbance

Human disturbance impacts the breeding behavior of many species, and it is particularly important to understand how these human-caused changes affect vulnerable taxa, such as turtles. Habitat alteration can change the amount and quality of suitable nesting habitat, while human presence during nesting may influence nesting behavior. Consequently, both habitat alteration and human presence can influence the microhabitat that females choose for nesting. In the summer of 2019, we located emydid turtle nests in east-central Alabama, USA, in areas with varying levels of human disturbance (high, intermediate, low). We aimed to determine whether turtles selected nest sites based on a range of microhabitat variables comparing maternally selected natural nests to randomly chosen artificial nests. We also compared nest site choice across areas with different levels of human disturbance. Natural nests had less variance in canopy openness and average daily mean and minimum temperature than artificial nests, but microhabitat variables were similar across differing levels of disturbance. Additionally, we experimentally quantified nest predation across a natural to human-disturbed gradient. Nest predation rates were higher in areas with low and intermediate levels of disturbance than in areas with high human disturbance. Overall, these results show that turtles are not adjusting their choices of nest microhabitat when faced with anthropogenic change, suggesting that preserving certain natural microhabitat features will be critical for populations in human-disturbed areas.

Relationship between Satsuma mandarin yield and meteorological factors in Shizuoka and distribution of alternative flowering indices in Mikkabi production area, Japan.

Biennial bearing, the biggest factor destabilizing citrus fruit production, is primarily attributed to unfavorable weather changes. However, the relationship between the yield of Satsuma mandarin for more than 50 years and the weather remains poorly understood. Therefore, the present study investigated the effect of meteorological factors, such as average temperature, precipitation, and sunshine duration, on the yield of Satsuma mandarin in Shizuoka Prefecture, Japan. We analyzed fruit production statistics and meteorological observation data from 1961 to 2018. Furthermore, we investigated the alternative indices of flowering and sprouting in each of the 20 districts of Mikkabi Town, Hamamatsu City, Shizuoka Prefecture. We detected a positive correlation between the average temperatures in March and February and yields in Shizuoka and Hamamatsu Cities. All alternative indices, except flowering in the early-maturing cultivar, were significantly lower in the southern than in the northern districts (P < 0.01 or 0.05). Particularly, the alternative index of flowering in the late-maturing cultivar was significantly different between the northern and southern districts (P < 0.01). Furthermore, we found a negative correlation between the mean annual temperature or average temperature from January to April and alternative indices of flowering and sprouting. The findings of our field survey in Mikkabi production area suggest that mean annual temperature may affect the biennial bearing of Satsuma mandarin. © 2023 Society of Chemical Industry.

Response of the soft scale insect Parthenolecanium corni and its natural enemies on honeylocust trees to urban conditions

Urban habitats can alter tree physiology in ways that make trees more susceptible to insect pests. We examined how urban conditions (e.g., impervious surfaces and warming) affected the soft scale insect, European fruit lecanium, Parthenolecanium corni Bouché (Hemiptera: Coccidae) and the health of thornless honeylocust trees (Gleditsia tricanthos L. var. inermis) in Indianapolis, Indiana, USA. Hot and cool study sites were selected based on surface air temperatures obtained from thermal LANDSAT-8 images overlaid against a map of honeylocust tree locations. Based on temperature probe data, study trees located in hot sites had mean average daily temperatures up to 1.56 °C and 1.79 °C warmer than cool sites in 2019 and 2020, respectively. We hypothesized that abundance and fecundity of scale insects would be higher on trees in hot sites and those surrounded by more impervious surface cover within a 20 m radius. Although our data supported these hypotheses, impervious surface cover predicted more of the variation in abundance and fecundity of scale insects in hot sites compared to cool sites. Rates of parasitism were not affected by impervious surface cover or whether the site was from a hot or cool location. However, we found strong density dependence in parasitism of scale insects in both hot and cool sites when scale densities were at or below the levels present in cool sites. This suggests that lower densities of scale insects were associated with a positive numerical response of parasitoids, a necessary prerequisite for population regulation by top-down effects. In contrast, this numerical response was lacking at the higher densities of scales found on trees located in hot sites where, presumably bottom-up factors like water-stress increased the fecundity of scale insects. These findings add to a growing body of evidence linking rising global temperatures with increased pest abundance in ways that cannot be mitigated by local populations of natural enemies.

The phosphorus limitation in the post-fire forest soils increases soil CO2 emission via declining cellular carbon use efficiency and increasing extracellular phosphatase

Wildfires cause severe disruptions to forest soils and modify the carbon (C) cycle in the post-fire soils. Yet, the contribution of abiotic and biotic drivers to CO2 emission in the post-fire forest soils is not well understood. This study investigated soil CO2 emission from the burned and corresponding unburned forest soils across a large latitudinal gradient of mean average precipitation (from 422 to 1640 mm) and temperature (from 0.20 to 25.8 °C). We compared the soil chemical properties (e.g., dissolved organic carbon, nutrients) and microbial properties (biomass, metabolic quotient (qCO2), and community diversity and composition) in the burned and unburned soils. Microbial metabolism was also addressed through extracellular enzyme activity and intracellular C use efficiency (CUE) using the stoichiometric modeling approach. Here, we showed that the wildfires: i) increased phosphorous (P) pressure to soil microbes (indicated by increased qCO2), ii) decreased microbial biomass, community diversity and abundance of some microbial groups (e.g., Phylum Actinobacteria), and iii) resulted in larger basal respiration due to lower cellular CUE and higher extracellular alkaline phosphatase (AP) ratio to other enzymes like β-glucosidase, Cellobiohydrolase and N-Acetyl-glucosaminidase. The latter indicated the wildfires-induced P:N imbalance (P-limitation) caused significant C loss via microbial exploitation of P from soil organic matter. The study highlights the ecological significance of intracellular and extracellular metabolisms in soil respiration and consequent C sequestration in post-fire forest soils.

Effect of Global Warming on the Yields of Strawberry in Queensland: A Mini-Review

Light, temperature and rainfall affect the growth and yield of strawberry plants (Fragaria × ananassa Duch.). The objective of this review was to determine the impact of global warming on the yields of strawberry in a temperate (summer crop) and subtropical environment (winter crop) in southern Queensland, Australia. Information was collected on the changes in temperature over five decades in two locations in this area. The relationship between relative yield and temperature from published data was used to determine the impact of global warming on productivity in the two locations. Finally, the impact of elevated concentrations of CO2 and temperature on yield was examined from studies in the literature. The average daily mean temperature has increased by 2 °C over the season on the Sunshine Coast (winter crop) since 1967 (p &lt; 0.001, R2 = 0.69). The impact of global warming has been less severe on the Granite Belt (summer crop), with a 1 °C increase in temperature (p &lt; 0.001, R2 = 0.37). Information was collected from the literature on the yield in individual temperature regimes in an experiment and these data were compared with the maximum yield in the same experiment (relative yield). There was a negative linear relationship between relative yield and temperature in most of the published literature. The mean (± s.d. or standard deviation) estimate of the slope from the regression was −0.14 (± 0.14), the median was −0.11 and the range was from −0.51 to 0.11 (n = 14 studies). Increases in temperature were associated with a decrease in yield of 14% to 28% in the two areas in Queensland. The results of other research indicated that elevated concentrations of CO2 do not benefit productivity when combined with elevated temperatures. Further decreases in yield are expected in the next few decades in the absence of heat-tolerant cultivars or other mitigating strategies.

Helically-coiled-wire-induced swirl flow heat transfer and pressure drop in a circular tube under velocities controlled

Systematic measurements of the swirl flow heat transfer by the helical coil-wire and the pressure drop across the helical coil-wire were made by the experimental water loop flow with exponentially increasing heat input at mass velocities G = 3928 to 13,496 kg/m2s, inlet liquid temperatures Tin=284.14 to 307.57 K and inlet pressures Pin=763.80 to 1027.85 kPa. Systematic measurements of the pressure drop across the helical coil-wire were performed without heating circular tube. The measurements were performed on the inner surface of a SUS304 circular test tube with an inner diameter of 6 mm, a heated length of 59.7 mm, and a thickness of 0.5 mm, in which a helical coil was inserted. SUS304 helical coiled wire with wire diameter dw=2.025 mm, coil diameter Dc=3.4917 mm, total length l = 370 mm, coil pitch 360° rotation pc=37.222 mm, and coil pitch ratio yc=pc/d = 6.204 was employed. The relationship between swirl velocity and pump input frequency and that between fanning friction factor and Reynolds number (Red=1.949 × 104 to 1.274 × 105) were clarified beforehand. On the other hand, the RANS (Reynolds mean Navier-Stokes simulation) equations for the k-ε turbulence model in a circular tube of 6 mm diameter and 626 mm length with helical coil inserted, considering the temperature dependence of the thermophysical properties concerned, were numerically solved for the heating of water on a heated section of 6 mm diameter and 60 mm length under the same conditions as the experiment by using the PHOENICS code. The helical coiled wire of dw =2.025 mm, Dc=3.4917 mm, l = 370 mm, pc=37.222 mm and yc=6.204 was installed at the same experimental location. The surface heat fluxes q and average surface temperatures Ts,av on a circular tube with a helical coil of yc =6.204 obtained theoretically were compared with the corresponding experimental values on the graph of q versus temperature difference between average heater inner surface temperature and liquid bulk mean temperature ΔTL [=Ts,av-TL, TL=(Tin+Tout)/2]. The numerical solutions for q and ΔTL were almost identical to the corresponding experimental values for q and ΔTL, with deviations from 0 to +20% for the ΔTL range tested here. The numerical solutions of the local surface temperature (Ts)z, the local average liquid temperature (Tf,av)z, and the local liquid pressure drop ΔPz were also compared with the corresponding experimental values of (Ts)z, (Tf,av)z, and ΔPz against heated length L or distance from the test section inlet Z, respectively. The numerical solutions of (Ts)z, (Tf,av)z and ΔPz differ from the corresponding experimental data of (Ts)z, (Tf,av)z and ΔPz within ± 5%. The thickness of the conductive sublayer δCSL [=(Δr)out/2] and non-dimensional thickness of the conductive sublayer y+CSL [=(fF/2)0.5ρlusw,cδCSL/μl] for turbulent heat transfer on a circular tube with helical coiled wire are clarified on the basis of numerical solutions in the swirl velocity usw,c ranging from 5.108 to 17.146 m/s. Correlations of Nusselt number Nud, δCSL, and y+CSL for the swirl flow heat transfer in a vertical circular tube with helical coil wire are also derived.

The Relationship between the Built Environment and Climate Change: The Case of Turkish Provinces

The relationship between the built environment and climate change has been discussed from many perspectives. This study examines the effect of the built environment on climate change indicators in Turkish provinces over the last 18 years, contributing to the literature on built environment analyses regarding both urban and rural areas, unlike other studies that have focused mostly on urban areas. The study discusses the changes in climate indicators using maps and analyzes the effects of the built environment on climate change using linear regression. The results indicate that provinces in Türkiye have experienced climate change effects such as increased annual mean temperature, maximum temperature, maximum precipitation, extreme weather events, and drought. These effects differed both in terms of geography and the subperiods over the examined period. The results also demonstrate the increase in the built environment to have a positive correlation with the increases in annual maximum temperature and the annual number of extreme weather events. The built environment in Türkiye increased 63% between 1990 and 2018, and the average number of extreme weather events per province increased from 0.3 to 8 over this same period. At the same time, the average annual mean temperature increased from 12.9 to 15.1 °C, the average maximum temperature went up from 24.6 to 25.8 °C, the average annual maximum precipitation increased from 125.6 to 157.7 mm, and the average number of dry months per year increased from 3.4 to 3.8.

Latitude variations of soil bacterial community diversity and composition in three typical forests of temperate, northeastern of China

Soil bacteria are a crucial component of forest soil biodiversity and play important functions in numerous ecosystem processes. Hence, studying the variation of diversity and composition of soil bacteria between latitude gradients and the driving factors responsible for these differences is important for understanding the changes of soil bacteria. We used Illumina MiSeq sequencing of bacterial 16S rRNA to investigate the distribution pattern and driving factors of bacterial diversity and composition in temperate forest soils at three different latitudes in northeast China, with samples taken at low, middle and high latitude. Each sample area was located at a distance of 1,200 km. Our results indicate that the soil bacterial diversity decreased with increasing latitude. Members of the phyla Acidobacteria and Proteobacteria were the dominant in all investigated soils, the highest relative abundances of these phyla were: Acidobacteria and Proteobacteria in high-latitude forest, Rokubacteria and Actinobacteria in low-latitude forest. The dominant bacterial genera in the three different latitude forests were Candidatus_Solibacter, Bryobacter, Roseiarcus and Granulicella. Mean average temperature, soil pH and total nitrogen content were the key environmental factors shaping the soil bacterial diversity and composition in different latitudes of these temperate forests. The results of this study contribute to a deeper understanding and better predictions the latitudinal pattern of soil biodiversity.

Life-history characteristics and climate correlates of dioecious plant species in central southern Australia

Context The proportion of dioecious species can vary considerably among climates and habitats. However, studies often involve isolated communities or large diverse areas and fail to capture how proportions vary across diverse landscapes.Aims To identify (1) life-history associations of terrestrial dioecious plant species in central southern Australia, (2) whether proportion of dioecy varies spatially across central southern Australia, and (3) whether proportion of dioecy is correlated with life-history and/or climate factors.Methods Species growth form, pollination mechanisms and seed-dispersal features were extracted from herbarium databases to determine potential dioecy-linked traits. Distribution data for native terrestrial species in 66 Interim Biogeographical Regionalisation of Australia subregions were extracted from the Australasian Virtual Herbarium to calculate the proportion of total native species richness that are dioecious. Climate data for each subregion were also obtained from Terrestrial Ecology Research Network databases to investigate relationships among climate, life-history traits and dioecy.Key results Woodiness, abiotic pollination and endozoochory were more prevalent in dioecious than non-dioecious taxa. Proportion of dioecy ranged from 1.7% to 8.5% among subregions and correlated negatively with annual temperature range, January to March rainfall and precipitation seasonality and with average annual daily mean, minimum, maximum and average annual minimum temperature. The highest-ranked models of dioecy incorporated the additive effects of the relative proportion of woody species and either annual temperature ranges, January to March rainfall or average annual daily maximum temperature.Conclusions Dioecy was associated with woodiness, abiotic pollination and endozoochory, in line with studies of other flora, with the model of stable temperature range and woodiness being the highest-ranked model of dioecy.Implications Areas with higher proportions of dioecy can be targeted for future investigations into dioecious plant ecology to aid conservation and ecosystem management.

Long-term changes in surface air temperature over the Chinese mainland during 1901-2020

The magnitude of long-term surface climate warming over some regions, such as the Chinese mainland, is still uncertain due to the lack of observational data early in the 20th century. In this study, the monthly data series of the average, maximum, and minimum temperatures in the Chinese mainland during 1901-2020 were constructed based on the daily surface air temperature observations from 60 stations across the country, and the characteristics of the average, maximum, and minimum temperature, and diurnal temperature range (DTR) changes were analyzed. Results show that (1) regional average annual mean temperature in the Chinese mainland rose by 0.14°C per decade, maximum temperature rose by 0.07°C per decade, minimum temperature rose by 0.19°C per decade, and DTR decreased by 0.13°C per decade. All these trends are statistically significant (p &lt; 0.01); (2) the largest annual mean maximum temperature increase occurred in spring, followed by winter and autumn/summer, and the largest annual mean minimum temperature increase was in winter and spring, followed by autumn and summer; (3) annual mean DTR decreased significantly at a rate of -0.08, -0.12, -0.12, and -0.13°C per decade (p &lt; 0.01) in spring, summer, autumn, and winter, respectively; (4) the stations with drops in maximum temperature were mainly in Central China, southern North China, the southeastern coastal areas, and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, and the stations with significant increases in minimum temperature were located in North China, Northeast China, and Northwest China; (5) the areas with the fastest dropping DTR were mainly located in Northeast China and North China. The maximum and minimum temperature series for China based on climate anomalies are comparable to those based on other currently available datasets.

Climatic Water Balance Comparison for Selected areas in The Middle of Iraq

The climate parameters annual rainfall and average mean temperature are investigated from 2000 to 2019 for Kut, Hilla and Iskandaryia. Evidence of climate change is noticed by decreasing the mean annual rainfall and relative humidity with an increase in the annual mean temperature. The climate water balance has been calculated. Due to high temperature, increased evaporation, and low precipitation rates, there was a large water deficit. The total water surplus in the Kut area is 32.86 mm from November to February, and in Hilla and Iskandaryia is 20.4 and 27.8 mm from December to February, respectively. The climate classification for the three stations was semi-dry to dry climates. The region has a significant water deficit of up to 79.6 % of the total rainfall values indicated in Hilla station. Climate change has affected the locations near meteorological stations such as Kut, Hilla and Alexandria. All the studied climatic variables imprint water surplus or water deficit with slight changes within each geographical area.

Spatio-Temporal Pattern and Meteo-Climatic Determinants of Visceral Leishmaniasis in Italy.

Historically, visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in Italy was constrained to Mediterranean areas. However, in the last 20 years, sand fly vectors and human cases of VL have been detected in northern Italy, traditionally classified as a cold area unsuitable for sand fly survival. We aim to study the spatio-temporal pattern and climatic determinants of VL incidence in Italy. National Hospital Discharge Register records were used to identify incident cases of VL between 2009 and 2016. Incident rates were computed for each year (N = 8) and for each province (N = 110). Data on mean temperature and cumulative precipitation were obtained from the ERA5-Land re-analysis. Age- and sex-standardized incidence rates were modeled with Bayesian spatial and spatio-temporal conditional autoregressive Poisson models in relation to the meteo-climatic parameters. Statistical inference was based on Monte Carlo-Markov chains. We identified 1123 VL cases (incidence rate: 2.4 cases/1,000,000 person-years). The highest incidence rates were observed in southern Italy, even though some areas of northern Italy experienced high incidence rates. Overall, in the spatial analysis, VL incidence rates were positively associated with average air temperatures (β&amp;nbsp; for 1 °C increase in average mean average temperature: 0.14; 95% credible intervals (CrI): 0.01, 0.27) and inversely associated with average precipitation (β for 20 mm increase in average summer cumulative precipitation: -0.28, 95% CrI: -0.42, -0.13). In the spatio-temporal analysis, no association between VL cases and season-year specific temperature and precipitation anomalies was detected. Our findings indicate that VL is endemic in the whole Italian peninsula and that climatic factors, such as air temperature and precipitation, might play a relevant role in shaping the geographical distribution of VL cases. These results support that climate change might affect leishmaniasis distribution in the future.

Benthic Foraminiferal and Sedimentologic Changes in the Pliocene Yorktown Formation, Virginia, USA

ABSTRACTThe Pliocene Yorktown Formation consists of four lithologic units that record three marine transgressive sequences along the U.S. mid-Atlantic margin. These units were deposited during a time when average sea-level and mean global temperatures were ∼25 m and ∼3°C higher than the pre-industrial, respectively, and global atmospheric CO2 concentrations were similar to present. Forty-five samples were collected along the James River near Rushmere, Virginia, and Spring Grove, Virginia, and were analyzed for benthic foraminifera community and sedimentological changes between each member of the formation. These data are useful for developing boundary conditions for shallow, near-shore environments for paleoclimate modeling. Foraminiferal analysis distinguishes six biofacies across the entire formation. The most notable change in grain-size occurs at the conformable boundary between the Rushmere and Morgarts Beach members, where the average percentage of sand decreases from ∼60% in the Rushmere Member to &amp;lt;40% in the Morgarts Beach Member.

Assessing the impact of climate change on the agricultural economy in Thailand: an empirical study using panel data analysis.

This study estimates the impact of climate change on the economic growth of the agricultural sector and its variability using a panel dataset from 1995 to 2019 for 76 provinces in Thailand. The panel data analysis consists of unit root tests for identifying stationary characteristics, autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds for analyzing cointegration, and pool mean group (PMG) estimation for detecting long-run and short-run effects. The cointegration results indicate the existence of long-run equilibrium in the agricultural economy and its variability to climatic and non-climatic variables. Results from the PMG estimation suggest that extreme weather events have a negative impact on the agricultural economy, but increased total rainfall has a positive association with the agricultural economy. The increases in mean average and mean minimum temperatures will reduce the variability of agricultural growth. The obtained results suggest that the productivity of agricultural households and water resources increases the agricultural revenue and reduces its variability for long-term development in the agricultural sector of Thailand.