Average Mean Temperature Research Articles

Projecting future minimum mortality temperature in China

Minimum mortality temperature (MMT) increases with global warming due to climate adaptation, which is crucial for the precise assessment of mortality burden attributed to climate change. Nevertheless, forecasting future MMT poses a challenge given the unavailability of future mortality data. Here, we attempted to develop a novel approach to project future MMT. First, we estimated the MMT of 334 locations in China using a distributed lag nonlinear model. Then, meta regression models were applied to investigate the associations between MMT and several temperature variables(Most Frequent Temperature(MFT), average daily mean temperature, average daily minimum temperature, average daily maximum temperature and percentiles of temperature from 1st to 100th). A generalized linear regression model was employed to investigate whether significant differences existed in the relationships between MMT and temperature from the 1st to the 100th percentile. Finally, an optional indicator of MMT for projecting future values was identified. Our results indicated that temperatures in the 85th to 89th percentiles were closely associated with MMT, with the 88th percentile temperature serving as the most effective indicator, as confirmed by meta-regression models. Using the 88th percentile of temperature as alternative indicator of MMT, compared with the period of 2006-2015, the projected MMT in most districts and counties in China tended to rise under three representative concentration pathways (RCPs) in the 2030s (2030-2039), 2060s (2060-2069), and 2090s (2090-2099). Our findings provide some insight to project future MMT for assessing mortality burden related to temperature change driven by global warming.

Youth suicidality risk relative to ambient temperature and heatwaves across climate zones: A time series analysis of emergency department presentations in New South Wales, Australia.

Youth suicidality prevalence continues to rise alongside hot weather severity. Links between these two variables are underexplored. We examined associations between daily temperature and emergency department suicidality presentations by young people. We assessed these associations for five regions covering New South Wales as determined by 'climate zone' and analysed for heatwave effects as well as based on demographic subgroups. Daily emergency department presentations for suicidality by people aged 12-24 years across New South Wales, Australia, during warmer months (November to March) from 2012 to 2019 were examined in relation to daily mean temperature and heatwaves (⩾3 consecutive days ⩾ 95th percentile of long-term daily mean temperature) and by climate zone, using a generalised additive model with negative binomial distribution. Risks for age- and sex-based subgroups were also calculated. New South Wales youth suicidality presentation rates were significantly higher on hotter days. For every 1°C rise above average daily mean temperature, youth suicidality presentations to New South Wales emergency departments increased by 1.3%. Heatwaves did not increase presentation rates beyond single-day daily mean temperature effects. These findings were predominantly replicated across climate zones and demographic subgroups, though the association between suicidality and ambient temperature was weaker in coastal regions including Eastern Sydney. There is a positive linear association between ambient temperature and youth suicidality presentations to emergency departments. Risks are increased on single hot days, not only during heatwaves. Public health, broader societal approaches to heat and health system planning should consider impacts on youth suicidality of predicted increases in hot weather severity and frequency.

Impact of GHG emission, temperature, and precipitation on rice production in Nepal

Climate variables mainly greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, temperature, precipitation, and rainfall are affecting crop production across the world. Nepal as a vulnerable country in terms of climate change, has raised the attention of researchers and policymakers in recent years. In this scenario, this study has attempted to find the impact of GHG emissions, temperature, and precipitation on rice production in Nepal. The study is based on time serried data from 1990 to 2019. The findings show that GHG emission has a significant positive impact on rice production. However, the annual average mean temperature has a significant negative impact on rice production. Besides having a negative coefficient, precipitation did not affect rice production significantly. The study recommends concrete climate change adaptation practices in the major rice production areas of Nepal, mainly in the Terai and Hilly belts.

The degree of soil arsenic background enrichment by carbonate weathering is mainly controlled by climate in large spatial scale

Spatial distribution of soil arsenic (As) is heterogeneous. Making clear the dominant factor(s) controlling its spatial variation contributes to the differentiation of its natural background from anthropogenic pollution. Recent studies have found that the “high background” of soil heavy metals may be induced by the process of carbonate weathering. However, the extent, process, and factors that controls the degree of this enrichment, is still unclear, especially in large spatial scales. In this study, this problem is to be revealed by a compilation and spatial data mining of soil geochemical data for Australia, North America, Europe, and China with a collection and chemical analysis of bedrock and soil profiles in a typical region. The results indicated that the process of carbonate weathering strengthened the As enrichment in the soil; therefore, the carbonate rock underlaid regions could be distinguished from those of other bedrocks in the soil As maps. In the southwest region of China, an area larger than 12,000 km2 exceeding the intervention value of 100 mg/kg could be produced according to the national standard. Iron minerals play an important role for this enrichment as they serve as carriers for As during the stages of both carbonate leaching and the decomposition of silicate minerals. Geodetector results indicated a significant dependence on climate for the degree of enrichment, and both higher temperature and precipitation were necessary, which caused a decreasing trend of soil As on carbonate region from the warm and humid south to the cold and dry north in China. The dependence of soil As concentration on the mean average precipitation (MAP) and mean average temperature (MAT) was formulated using the data of the wider geographical regions across the world, and a theoretically predicted map has been produced to show the extent caused by this causation.

Factors associated with the spatiotemporal distribution of dog rabies in Tunisia.

Despite continuous efforts of veterinary services to control rabies in dogs since 1982, rabies remains a cause of death in Tunisia, with more than five reported human cases in 2022. As little is known on the determinants of transmission of rabies in dogs, better understand which factors contribute to its spatial heterogeneity in Tunisia is critical for developing bespoke mitigation activities. In this context, we developed Bayesian Poisson mixed-effect spatio-temporal model upon all cases of rabid dogs reported in each delegation during the period from 2019 to 2021. The best fitting model highlighted the association between the risk of rabies and the mean average monthly temperature, the density of markets and the density of dogs in delegations. Interestingly, no relationship was found between intensity of vaccination in dogs and the risk of rabies. Our results provided insights into the spatio-temporal dynamics of dog rabies transmission and highlighted specific geographic locations where the risk of infection was high despite correction for associated explanatory variables. Such an improved understanding represent key information to design bespoke, cost-efficient, rabies prevention and control strategies to support veterinary services activities and policymaking.

Dynamics of 'Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus' Growth, Concentrations of Reactive Oxygen Species, and Ion Leakage in Huanglongbing-Positive Sweet Orange.

Citrus Huanglongbing (HLB) caused by 'Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus' (CLas) is the most devastating citrus disease worldwide. CLas induces systemic and chronic reactive oxygen species (ROS) production, which has been suggested to be a primary cause of cell death in phloem tissues and subsequent HLB symptoms. Mitigating oxidative stress caused by CLas using horticultural approaches has been suggested as a useful strategy to reduce HLB damages. To provide information regarding the application timing to mitigate ROS, we investigated monthly dynamics of CLas concentration, CLas-triggered ROS, and phloem cell death in the bark tissues of asymptomatic and symptomatic branches of HLB-positive Hamlin and Valencia sweet orange trees in the field. Healthy branches in the screenhouse were used as controls. CLas concentration exhibited significant variations over the course of the year, with two distinct peaks observed in Florida citrus groves-late spring/early summer and late fall. Within both Hamlin and Valencia asymptomatic tissues, CLas concentration demonstrated a negative correlation with the deviation between the monthly average mean temperature and the optimal temperature for CLas colonization in plants (25.7°C). However, such a correlation was not evident in symptomatic tissues of Hamlin or Valencia sweet oranges. ROS levels were consistently higher in symptomatic or asymptomatic branches than in healthy branches in most months. ROS concentrations were higher in symptomatic branches than in asymptomatic branches in most months. CLas triggered significant increases in ion leakage in most months for asymptomatic and symptomatic branches compared with healthy controls. In asymptomatic branches of Hamlin, a positive correlation was observed between CLas concentration and ROS concentrations, CLas concentration and ion leakage levels, as well as ROS and ion leakage. Intriguingly, such a relationship was not observed in Valencia asymptomatic branches or in the symptomatic branches of Hamlin and Valencia. This study sheds light on the pathogenicity of CLas by providing useful information on the temporal dynamics of ROS production, phloem cell death, and CLas growth, as well as provides useful information in determining the timing for application of antioxidants and antimicrobial agents to control HLB.

Global Seasonal Activities of Respiratory Syncytial Virus Before the Coronavirus Disease 2019 Pandemic: A Systematic Review.

Varied seasonal patterns of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) have been reported worldwide. We conducted a systematic review on articles identified in PubMed reporting RSV seasonality based on data collected before 1 January 2020. RSV seasonal patterns were examined by geographic location, calendar month, analytic method, and meteorological factors including temperature and absolute humidity. Correlation and regression analyses were conducted to explore the relationship between RSV seasonality and study methods and characteristics of study locations. RSV seasons were reported in 209 articles published in 1973-2023 for 317 locations in 77 countries. Regular RSV seasons were similarly reported in countries in temperate regions, with highly variable seasons identified in subtropical and tropical countries. Longer durations of RSV seasons were associated with a higher daily average mean temperature and daily average mean absolute humidity. The global seasonal patterns of RSV provided important information for optimizing interventions against RSV infection.

Evaluating the Role of Green Infrastructure in Microclimate and Building Energy Efficiency

This study investigates how permeable and cool pavements, green roofs, and living walls affect microclimatic conditions and buildings’ energy consumption in an arid urban setting: Shiraz. The study aims to evaluate the role of green infrastructure in mitigating urban heat island effects and enhancing outdoor conditions. By utilizing environmental modeling tools, specifically the ENVI-met 5.1.1 and Design Builder 7.0.2 software, a comprehensive analysis was conducted across various scenarios during both the summer and winter seasons. The results show that permeable pavements with 80% grass coverage reduced the mean average air temperature by 1.18 °C in summer mornings compared to the reference case. In both the summer and winter scenarios, the living wall intervention consistently emerged as the most effective strategy, showcasing substantial reductions in cooling consumption, CO2 emissions, and electricity consumption. With a 25% reduction in cooling consumption, a 14.7% decrease in CO2 emissions, and an impressive 53.4% decline in electricity consumption, the living wall excelled in its environmental impact, and it stands out for its substantial electricity savings. While the green roof and permeable pavement scenarios demonstrated more modest gains, their integration could offer a synergistic solution, warranting further exploration for optimized energy efficiency and environmental sustainability. These findings indicate the intrinsic connection between sustainable landscaping strategies and their influence on urban microclimate and building energy efficiency.

Relationships between high temperatures and Pacific Oyster disease and mortality in southeast Tasmania, Australia

Warm ocean temperature extremes, including marine heatwaves, have profound impacts on natural marine systems and aquaculture industries across the globe. In Tasmania, Australia, one aquaculture industry that has been significantly impacted by warm temperatures is Pacific Oyster (Magallana gigas, previously named Crassostrea gigas) farming, due to recurring outbreaks of the virus Ostreid herpesvirus 1. Such viral outbreaks are understood to be driven by high seawater temperatures, but the temperature threshold or duration for triggering disease and mortalities remain unclear. This study investigates the relationship between in-situ farm temperatures and oyster disease and mortality on the southeast coast of Tasmania, Australia using daily observations from three oyster growing areas (Pipe Clay Lagoon, Upper Pittwater, and Lower Pittwater) over three seasons. It is found that a 12-day averaged daily mean temperature is an excellent measure of the occurrence of high mortality. Specifically, a 21-day mean of 23.7 °C resulted in a 70% likelihood of high mortality, which is defined here as oyster losses of >15%. On the other hand, for lower levels of disease and mortality, a 12-day average of daily mean temperature gave the strongest relationship. A 12-day mean of 19.7 °C led to 70% probability of some disease and low mortality. The analysis also found in-situ farm temperature generally correlates well with remotely sourced temperature observations, indicating their potential usability for operational management. This study demonstrates a statistical risk analysis framework for the oyster farming industry, helping to improve the understanding of the detrimental impact of high temperatures on Pacific Oysters.

Metagenomic insights into microbial diversity and carbon cycling related genes along the elevational gradient in an arid mountain ecosystem

Understanding the elevational patterns of soil microbial carbon (C) metabolic potentials is instrumental for predicting changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in the face of climate change. However, such patterns remain uncertain in arid mountain ecosystems, where climosequences are quite different from other ecosystems. To address this gap, this study investigated the distribution determinants of microbial communities, C-cycling functional genes, and SOC fractions along the elevational gradient (1 707−3 548 m, a mean annual precipitation (MAP) range of 38 to 344 mm) of the north slope of Central Kunlun Mountain, using a metagenomic approach. Results showed that elevation significantly influenced the α-diversity (Shannon index) and composition of microbial communities as well as the C-cycling functional genes. The α-diversity of microbial taxonomy and C-cycling functional genes linearly increased with the increase in MAP along the elevational gradient. The elevational patterns of genes encoding glycoside hydrolases and glycosyltransferases (GTs) were mainly driven by electrical conductivity (EC), mean average temperature (MAT), MAP, and plant diversity. Furthermore, mineral-associated organic carbon (MAOC), particulate organic carbon (POC), and their sum generally increased with elevation. However, the MAOC/POC ratio followed a unimodal pattern, suggesting greater stability of the SOC pool in the mid-elevation regions. This unimodal pattern was likely influenced by the abundance of Actinobacteria and genes encoding GTs and carbohydrate esterases (CEs) and threshold effects of EC and MAT. In summary, our findings indicate that the distribution patterns of microbial communities and C-cycling functional genes along the elevational gradient in an arid ecosystem are distinct from those of regions with higher MAP, facilitating the prediction of climate change effects on SOC metabolism under more arid conditions. Soil salinity, plant diversity, precipitation, and temperature are the main regulatory factors of microbial C metabolism processes, and they potentially play a central role in mediating SOC pool stability.

Evaluation and Comparison of Thermal Changes in the Pulp Chamber in Different Inter Proximal Reduction Techniques: An In-vitro Study

Introduction: Interproximal reduction (IPR) is a common orthodontic treatment procedure that is used which involves tooth reduction, anatomic recontouring, and protecting permanent teeth proximal enamel surfaces. Sheridan described the air-rotor stripping technique as an alternative to extraction in borderline cases. Though there are many studies, it was not clearly differentiated regarding the pulpal temperature changes during IPR.
 Materials and Methods: In this in vitro study, 63 extracted human premolar teeth were randomly assigned to three groups (n=21). Group-1 (Strauss diamond stripping bur) at high speed above 20,000 rpm, Group-2 (Manual Handheld metal stripper). Group-3 (Strauss diamond stripping disc) at a low speed below 15,000 rpm. The average mean temperature is assessed for each tooth during various techniques using K-type thermocouple. During the procedure, the thermometer display was covered, and the temperature was revealed after all the stripping procedures had already been performed. Data were analyzed using IBM SPSS version 20 software. Descriptive statistics, one way analysis of variance with Tukey’s post hoc tests were done to analyze the study data.
 Results: The mean rise in temperature was highest with disc & micromotor (4.3ºC) followed by airotor & bur (4.02ºC) and manual method (2.52ºC) (p ≤ 0.05).
 Conclusion: There was an increase in the pulpal temperature using diamond stripping disc with micromotor followed by the airotor and bur, manual hand held stripping.

Forest fires social and climate change in Cyprus

Forest fires and wildfires are increasing in many regions of the world and give the big impact on the environment, local economies, livelihoods, and societies. Cyprus is an island member of the European Union in the south-eastern Mediterranean and it is severely affected by wild fires. The aim of this paper is to review the pertinent, recent literature (which although not exhaustive, identifies the main contributing factors) mostly in the Mediterranean region and to identify the variables that affect the rise in the number and intensity of forest fires, wildfires and how these variables are affecting Cyprus. This research was conducted by using statistical data made by the Cyprus Statistical Service. By compiling the data of climatology, demography, agricultural production, and forest fire incidents, some results were found. The increased forest fires were caused by the rise of the average annual mean temperature in the period of 1990-2021, the change in social conditions and agricultural land use with the urbanization of people living around the forest areas, and the conservative policies adopted by successive administrations with reference to forest management and conservation.

Investigating Mineral Accumulation and Seed Vigor Potential in Bottle Gourd (Lagenaria siceraria) through Crossbreeding Timing

Bottle gourd (Lagenaria siceraria) is a well-known cucurbit with an active functional ingredient. A two-year field experiment was carried out at the Research Farm of Seed Science and Technology, CCS HAU, Hisar, in a randomized block design during the Kharif season (Kharif is one of the two major cropping seasons in India and other South Asian countries, heavily reliant on monsoon rains with the other being Rabi) and the summer season. Five different crossing periods (CP), viz. CP1, CP2, CP3, CP4, and CP5, were considered to illustrate the effects of agro-climatic conditions on the quality and biochemical components of two bottle gourd parental lines and one hybrid, HBGH-35. The average mean temperature for the Kharif season in 2017 was 31.7 °C, and for the summer season, it was 40.1 °C. Flowers were tagged weekly from the start of the crossing period until the end and harvested separately at different times. The fruits harvested from different crossing periods under different environmental conditions influenced the bottle gourd’s qualitative and biochemical traits and showed significant variations among the five crossing period environments. A positive significance and correlation were observed between weather variables and different biochemical characteristics. Henceforth, the CP4 crossing period at a temperature of 31.7 °C retained high-quality seed development, which may be essential in enhancing agricultural productivity and the national economy.

Drivers of the time-varying heat-cold-mortality association in Spain: A longitudinal observational study

BackgroundA number of studies have reported reductions in mortality risk due to heat and cold over time. However, questions remain about the drivers of these adaptation processes to ambient temperatures. We aimed to analyse the demographic and socioeconomic drivers of the downward trends in vulnerability to heat- and cold-related mortality observed in Spain during recent decades (1980–2018). MethodsWe collected data on all-cause mortality, temperature and relevant contextual indicators for 48 provinces in mainland Spain and the Balearic Islands between Jan 1, 1980, and Dec 31, 2018. Fourteen contextual indicators were analysed representing ageing, isolation, urbanicity, heating, air conditioning (AC), house antiquity and ownership, education, life expectancy, macroeconomics, socioeconomics, and health investment. The statistical analysis was separately performed for the range of months mostly causing heat- (June-September) and cold- (October-May) related mortality. We first applied a quasi-Poisson generalised linear regression in combination with distributed lag non-linear models (DLNM) to estimate province-specific temperature-mortality associations for different periods, and then we fitted univariable and multivariable multilevel spatiotemporal meta-regression models to evaluate the effect modification of the contextual characteristics on heat- and cold-related mortality risks over time. FindingsThe average annual mean temperature has risen at an average rate of 0·36 °C per decade in Spain over 1980–2012, although the increase in temperature has been more pronounced in summer (0·40 °C per decade in June-September) than during the rest of the year (0·33 °C per decade). This warming has been observed, however, in parallel with a progressive reduction in the mortality risk associated to both hot and cold temperatures. We found independent associations for AC with heat-related mortality, and heating with cold-related mortality. AC was responsible for about 28·6% (31·5%) of the decrease in deaths due to heat (extreme heat) between 1989 and 1993 and 2009–2013, and heating for about 38·3% (50·8%) of the reductions in deaths due to cold (extreme cold) temperatures. Ageing (ie, proportion of population over 64 years) attenuated the decrease in cold-related mortality. InterpretationAC and heating are effective societal adaptive measures to heat and cold temperatures. This evidence holds important implications for climate change health adaptation policies, and for the projections of climate change impacts on human health.

Field investigation combined with modeling uncovers the ecological heterogeneity of Aedes albopictus habitats for strategically improving systematic management during urbanization

BackgroundAedes albopictus is an invasive vector of serious Aedes-borne diseases of global concern. Habitat management remains a critical factor for establishing a cost-effective systematic strategy for sustainable vector control. However, the community-based characteristics of Ae. albopictus habitats in complex urbanization ecosystems are still not well understood.MethodsA large-scale investigation of aquatic habitats, involving 12 sites selected as representative of four land use categories at three urbanization levels, was performed in Guangzhou, China during 2015–2017. The characteristics and dynamics of these Ae. albopictus habitats were assessed using habitat-type composition, habitat preference, diversity indexes and the Route index (RI), and the temporal patterns of these indexes were evaluated by locally weighted scatterplot smoothing models. The associations of RI with urbanization levels, land use categories and climatic variables were inferred using generalized additive mixed models.ResultsA total of 1994 potential habitats and 474 Ae. albopictus-positive habitats were inspected. The majority of these habitats were container-type habitats, with Ae. albopictus showing a particularly higher habitat preference for plastic containers, metal containers and ceramic vessels. Unexpectedly, some non-container-type habitats, especially ornamental ponds and surface water, were found to have fairly high Ae. albopictus positivity rates. Regarding habitats, the land use category residential and rural in Jiangpu (Conghua District, Guangzhou) had the highest number of Ae. albopictus habitats with the highest positive rates. The type diversity of total habitats (H-total) showed a quick increase from February to April and peaked in April, while the H-total of positive habitats (H-positive) and RIs peaked in May. RIs mainly increased with the monthly average daily mean temperature and monthly cumulative rainfall. We also observed the accumulation of diapause eggs in the winter and diapause termination in the following March.ConclusionsEcological heterogeneity of habitat preferences of Ae. albopictus was demonstrated in four land use categories at three urbanization levels. The results reveal diversified habitat-type compositions and significant seasonal variations, indicating an ongoing adaptation of Ae. albopictus to the urbanization ecosystem. H-positivity and RIs were inferred as affected by climatic variables and diapause behavior of Ae. albopictus, suggesting that an effective control of overwintering diapause eggs is crucial. Our findings lay a foundation for establishing a stratified systematic management strategy of Ae. albopictus habitats in cities that is expected to complement and improve community-based interventions and sustainable vector management.Graphical

Assessment of Hydrological Response to Climatic Variables over the Hindu Kush Mountains, South Asia

The impact of climate extremes, such as heat waves and extreme rainfall, can cause harvest failures, flooding, and droughts that ultimately threaten global food security, harming the region’s economy. Fluctuations in streamflow indicate the sensitivity of streamflow responding to extreme precipitation events and other climatic variables (temperature extremes) that play a significant role in its generation. Pakistan is also considered one of the climate change hotspot regions in the world. The devastating impacts have often occurred in recent decades due to an excess or shortage of streamflow, majorly generated from the Upper Indus Basin (UIB). To better understand climate extremes’ impact on streamflow, this study examined climate extremes and streamflow (Q) changes for three decades: 1990–1999, 2000–2009, and 2010–2019. Observed streamflow and meteorological data from nine sub-catchments across all climatic zones of the UIB were analyzed using RGui (R language coding program) and partial least squares regression (PLSR). Climatic variables were estimated, including precipitation extremes, temperature extremes, and potential evapotranspiration. The Mann–Kendal test was applied to the climatic indices, revealing that precipitation increased during the last 30 years, while maximum and minimum temperatures during the summer months decreased in the Karakoram region from 1990 to 2019. The spatiotemporal trend of consecutive dry days (CDD) indicated a more increasing tendency from 1990 to 2019, compared to the consecutive wet days (CWD), which showed a decreasing trend. PLSR was applied to assess the relation between climatic variables (extreme P, T indices, and evapotranspiration). It was found that the dominant climatic variables controlling annual streamflow include the r95p (very wet days) and R25mm (heavy precipitation days), maximum precipitation event amount, CWD, PRCPTOT (annual total precipitation), and RX5 (maximum five-day precipitation). The TXn (Min Tmax) and Tmax mean (average maximum temperature) dominate streamflow variables. Moreover, the impact of evapotranspiration (ET) on variations in streamflow is more pronounced in arid catchments. Precipitation is the predominant factor influencing streamflow generation in the UIB, followed by temperature. From streamflow quantification, it was found that climate-driven annual streamflow decreased during 1999–2019 in comparison to 1990–1999, with an increase in a few catchments like Kalam, which increased by about 3.94% from 2000 to 2010 and 10.30% from 2010 to 2019, and Shigar, which increased by 0.48% from 2000 to 2009 and 37.37% from 2010 to 2019 concerning 1990–1999. These variations were due to changes in these climatic parameters. The PLSR approach enables the identification of linkages between climatic variables and streamflow variability and the prediction of climate-driven floods. This study contributes to an enhanced identification and hydroclimatological trends and projections.

Estimation and Correlation of Surface Water Vapour Density in Benin, Nigeria

The present study investigated the monthly average daily mean temperature, relative humidity, surface pressure, cloud cover, and sunshine hours associated with monthly variations in surface water vapour density (SWVD) for the period extending from 1979 to 2016 for Benin (Latitude 6.320N, Longitude 5.100E). The daily variation of SWVD for the dry season (November to March) and rainy season (April to October) for the year 2014 was examined. Statistical indices of coefficient of determination (R2), mean bias error (MBE), root mean square error (RMSE), mean percentage error (MPE), Nash-Sutcliffe equation (NSE), and index of agreement (IA) were used to compare and evaluate the generated two variable SWVD-based models. The findings revealed that the level of SWVD varied throughout the investigation period on each day of the month. The SWVD is higher during the wet season than it is during the dry season, based to the monthly average daily values. The average SWVD was found to be at its highest point in the month of August during the rainy season and its lowest point in the month of December during the dry season (21.1448 gm-3). The greatest amount of SWVD was observed on 23rd May, 2014 with 27.5731gm-3 and the lowest on 26th December, 2014 with 9.6567 gm-3. Pressure and precipitable water vapour are related to each other using a multivariate correlation regression model that was constructed with R2 = 100%, MBE = -0.0204 gm-3, RMSE = 0.0206 gm-3, MPE = 0.1105 %, NSE = 99.9897% and IA = 99.9974% was better appropriate for SWVD estimation with the best fitting and therefore can be used for estimating SWVD in Benin.

Climate change and malaria: some recent trends of malaria incidence rates and average annual temperature in selected sub-Saharan African countries from 2000 to 2018

BackgroundMalaria is still a disease of massive burden in Africa, also influenced by climate change. The fluctuations and trends of the temperature and precipitation are well-known determinant factors influencing the disease’s vectors and incidence rates. This study provides a concise account of malaria trends. It describes the association between average temperature and malaria incidence rates (IR) in nine sub-Saharan African countries: Nigeria, Ethiopia, South Africa, Kenya, Uganda, Ghana, Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe. The incidence of malaria can vary both in areas where the disease is already present, and in regions where it is present in low numbers or absent. The increased vulnerability to the disease under increasing average temperatures and humidity is due to the new optimal level for vector breeding in areas where vector populations and transmission are low, and populations are sensitive due to low acquired immunity.MethodsA second source trend analysis was carried out of malaria cases and incidence rates (the number of new malaria cases per 1000 population at risk per year) with data from the World Health Organization (WHO) and average annual mean temperature from 2000 to 2018 from the World Bank’s Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP). Additionally, descriptive epidemiological methods were used to describe the development and trends in the selected countries. Furthermore, MS Excel was chosen for data analysis and visualization.ResultsFindings obtained from this article align with the recent literature, highlighting a declining trend (20–80%) of malaria IR (incidence rate) from 2000 to 2018. However, malaria IR varies considerably, with high values in Uganda, Mozambique, Nigeria and Zambia, moderate values in Ghana, Zimbabwe, and Kenya, and low values in South Africa and Ethiopia in 2018. Evidence suggests varying IRs after average temperature fluctuations in several countries (e.g., Zimbabwe, Ethiopia). Also, an inverse temperature-IR relationship occurs, the sharp decrease of IR during 2012–2014 and 2000–2003, respectively, occurred with increasing average temperatures in Ghana and Nigeria. The decreasing trends and fluctuations, partly accompanying the temperature, should result from the intervention programmes and rainfall variability. The vulnerability and changing climate could arrest the recent trends of falling IR.ConclusionThus, malaria is still a crucial public health issue in sub-Saharan Africa, although a robust decreasing IR occurred in most studied countries.

Using high-resolution LiDAR-derived canopy structure and topography to characterise hibernaculum locations of the hazel dormouse

The hazel dormouse is predominantly an arboreal species that moves down to the ground to hibernate in the autumn in temperate parts of its distributional ranges at locations not yet well understood. The main objective of this study is to test whether environmental characteristics surrounding hazel dormouse hibernacula can be identified using high-resolution remote sensing and data collected in situ. To achieve this, remotely sensed variables, including canopy height and cover, topographic slope, sky view, solar radiation and cold air drainage, were modelled around 83 dormouse hibernacula in England (n = 62) and the Netherlands (n = 21), and environmental characteristics that may be favoured by pre-hibernating dormice were identified. Data on leaf litter depth, temperature, canopy cover and distance to the nearest tree were collected in situ and analysed at hibernaculum locations in England. The findings indicated that remotely sensed data were effective in identifying attributes surrounding the locations of dormouse hibernacula and when compared to in situ information, provided more conclusive results. This study suggests that remotely sensed topographic slope, canopy height and sky view have an influence on hazel dormice choosing suitable locations to hibernate; whilst in situ data suggested that average daily mean temperature at the hibernaculum may also have an effect. Remote sensing proved capable of identifying localised environmental characteristics in the wider landscape that may be important for hibernating dormice. This study proposes that this method can provide a novel progression from habitat modelling to conservation management for the hazel dormouse, as well as other species using habitats where topography and vegetation structure influence fine-resolution favourability.

Etiological Diagnosis and Correlation of Chromoblastomycosis with Climatic Variables of Weather Stations in Villa Clara, Cuba

In Villa Clara province, Cuba, microorganisms and climatic conditions coexist for the development of the infectious entity chromoblastomycosis. Besides, there is a high percentage of agricultural and handicraft workers exposed to acquiring this infection. The objective of the research consisted in describing the etiological diagnosis and correlating chromoblastomycosis with average climatic variables of the meteorological stations located in Villa Clara. Between 2018-2022, a descriptive, cross-sectional study was conducted in a population of 25 patients diagnosed with chromoblastomycosis by anatomopathological and microbiological studies. Absolute frequencies were used as a summary measure, and for correlation with climatic data from the five meteorological stations, inferential statistics. Of the total number of patients, 92% were diagnosed by anatomopathological studies and only 2/8% had mycological studies, in which the species Fonsecaea pedrosoi was isolated. There was a significant correlation between mean temperature (p=0.045) and mean predicted wind (p=0.028) and the number of cases. This was not the case with relative air humidity (p>0.05). It is concluded that in Villa Clara province, only the etiological agent F. pedrosoi was the cause of the disease during the period studied, with a significant relationship between the disease and the average climatic variables mean temperature and mean predicted wind.