Average GDP Research Articles

Study of Human Activity Intensity from 2015 to 2020 Based on Remote Sensing in Anhui Province, China

The interactions between human activities and land cover have a significant impact on ecosystems. Therefore, studying human activity intensity based on land use or land cover is crucial for understanding the sustainable development of ecosystems. In this study, we selected Anhui Province as the study area and estimated the human activity intensity of land surface (HAILS) in 2015 and 2020 based on the ChinaCover datasets. We further analyzed the spatial, slope, and hydrological distribution characteristics of HAILS and explored the drivers of HAILS changes. The results show that the areas with higher HAILS were mainly located in the central part of Hefei, as well as along the Yangtze and the Huaihe rivers. The largest changes from 2015 to 2020 happened in the gentle slopes with the HAILS of 20–30%, and the percentage of HAILS > 20% decreased over the slope of 15°. In the riparian zone, the HAILS showed a clear decreasing trend after 2 km, while the HAILS in 2020 were higher than in 2015 in each flow-path distance belt, except for the Huaihe river. The HAILS index was strongly correlated with population density, rural population density, urban population density, average land GDP of primary industry, and nighttime light data. The rapid growth of the urban population and economy, as well as ecological protection policies, were identified as drivers of the above changes. Therefore, the HAILS in 2015 and 2020 of Anhui Province provide effective data support to address regional ecological conservation issues.

Inhibit or promote: The inverse-U-shape effect of greenspace on economic growth

Discovering a nature-friendly economic growth pattern is a critical issue in the development of human society. This paper combines satellite remote sensing data and economic statistics of 1843 counties in China from 1999 to 2019 to identify the impact of greenspace on county-level economic growth. The findings are as follows: First, It is the cutting-edge evidence of an inverted U-shaped impact of greenspace on economic growth, with the inflection point between 0.5 and 0.55. A higher level of greenspace positively impacts economic growth and vice inhibits, as long as it is below the inflection point. Second, economic growth requires a co-effort between construction and greenspace maintenance. On average, the greenspace level in Chinese counties falls below the inflection point. By bringing the average greenspace level to the inflection point, the average GDP of each county in China could increase by approximately 1.38 billion yuan, resulting in a per capita GDP increase of 342.13 yuan. Third, the impact of greenspace on the primary and tertiary industries is more significant. The results provide theoretical and empirical support for the win-win situation of environmental protection and economic growth.

Human activities affect the concentrations and distributions of trace metals in the heavily sediment-laden Yellow River

The increase in population, the development of industry and agriculture, and the exploitation and utilization of natural resources have inevitably caused a series of ecological and environmental problems, including trace metal pollution. Quantifying the influence of human activities on the metal concentrations of an aqueous environment is helpful for understanding the process and the relationship between socioeconomic development and ecological environmental quality at the macro level. We investigated how human activities and natural variabilities influence the concentrations and distributions of trace metals in the aquatic environment of the heavily sediment-laden Yellow River (> 5000 km). The results showed that the relevant indicators of human activities, such as the population density, average GDP, the number of industrial enterprises above a designated size, percent cropland, percent impervious surface, and the proportion of total crops sown area, had significant positive effect on the concentrations and distributions of some metals in the water environment with a weight of 33∼64%. Moreover, percent grassland and percent wetland exhibited a significant negative correlation with metals. Rapid population growth and socioeconomic development have accelerated the production of metals and other pollutants, that eventually enter the aquatic environment via runoff or other methods through a series of migrations and transformations; thus, the scope of pollution has gradually increased. Some artificially constructed prevention, control and repair measures have played a role in mitigating the effects of environmental pollutants, including metals. This study contributes to the development of effective strategies for controlling metal pollution in the Yellow River basin.

Transformation of the economy of post-communist Georgia on the 30th anniversary of the restoration of independence

30-year period of economic transformation in Georgia took place with certain difficulties; the first 10 years were especially painful, when the absolute annual decrease of the gross domestic product amounted to 1.5 billion GEL. The annual average decline of GDP was 8.91%. In the second and third decades, the situation improved to some extent, however, due to the difficulties caused in the first decade, the annual average absolute growth rate for the entire 30 years was 114 million GEL, and the average annual GDP growth rate was 0.4%. The successes achieved in the economy of Georgia in recent years  is not unnoticed by the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, which considered Georgia to be the most successful country in the post-Soviet space in terms of economic reforms. The results could have been better in terms of successful cohabitation, which is delayed in Georgia.  According to the last time periods, the growth of the GDP of Georgia is characterized by a double-digit rate.

Financial costs of assisted reproductive technology for patients in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review.

What are the direct costs of assisted reproductive technology (ART), and how affordable is it for patients in low- and middle-income countries (LMICS)? Direct medical costs paid by patients for infertility treatment are significantly higher than annual average income and GDP per capita, pointing to unaffordability and the risk of catastrophic expenditure for those in need. Infertility treatment is largely inaccessible to many people in LMICs. Our analysis shows that no study in LMICs has previously compared ART medical costs across countries in international dollar terms (US$PPP) or correlated the medical costs with economic indicators, financing mechanisms, and policy regulations. Previous systematic reviews on costs have been limited to high-income countries while those in LMICs have only focussed on descriptive analyses of these costs. Guided by the preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses (PRISMA), we searched PubMed, Web of Science, Cumulative Index of Nursing and Allied Health Literature, EconLit, PsycINFO, Latin American & Caribbean Health Sciences Literature, and grey literature for studies published in all languages from LMICs between 2001 and 2020. The primary outcome of interest was direct medical costs paid by patients for one ART cycle. To gauge ART affordability, direct medical costs were correlated with the GDP per capita or average income of respective countries. ART regulations and public financing mechanisms were analyzed to provide information on the healthcare contexts in the countries. The quality of included studies was assessed using the Integrated Quality Criteria for Review of Multiple Study designs. Of the 4062 studies identified, 26 studies from 17 countries met the inclusion criteria. There were wide disparities across countries in the direct medical costs paid by patients for ART ranging from USD2109 to USD18592. Relative ART costs and GDP per capita showed a negative correlation, with the costs in Africa and South-East Asia being on average up to 200% of the GDP per capita. Lower relative costs in the Americas and the Eastern Mediterranean regions were associated with the presence of ART regulations and government financing mechanisms. Several included studies were not primarily designed to examine the cost of ART and thus lacked comprehensive details of the costs. However, a sensitivity analysis showed that exclusion of studies with below the minimum quality score did not change the conclusions on the outcome of interest. Governments in LMICs should devise appropriate ART regulatory policies and implement effective mechanisms for public financing of fertility care to improve equity in access. The findings of this review should inform advocacy for ART regulatory frameworks in LMICs and the integration of infertility treatment as an essential service under universal health coverage. This work received funding from the UNDP-UNFPA-UNICEF-WHO-World Bank Special Programme of Research, Development and Research Training in Human Reproduction (HRP), a cosponsored programme executed by the World Health Organization (WHO). The authors declare no competing interests. This review is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42020199312.

The Russian economy: Borders of growth

The purpose of this article is to predict the likely dynamics of Russia’s GDP and consumption fund for 15 years, based solely on highly aggregated characteristics of investment activity—the savings rate and the incremental capital−output ratio. Hypotheses regarding investment parameters are formed with account for their values and trends during the retrospective period 2001–2020. The results of forecast calculations show that there is a fundamental possibility to ensure the average annual GDP growth rate for the period up to 2035 at approximately 3%. This will require serious investments to increase the savings rate to 26−27% in three to four years, at the same time significantly improving the quality of the investment resource and the return on additional capital, and to begin forming a production apparatus on a new technological platform.

Valuing the Natural Capital of Sea Areas Based on Emergy Analysis

Marine natural capital is an important component of natural capital yields goods and service flows benefiting the human being. The emergy analysis method allows one to account for mass, energy and money flows in an ecosystem, providing technical support for assessing its broader value regarding our economic dependence. Thus, we used this method to evaluate the natural capital of the Zhoushan archipelago sea area from 2011 to 2016 and proposed a formula to estimate the marine organism’s transformity. The average total emergy of our study area was 6.93 × 1022 sej and emdollar was about 9.20 billion yuan, which is equivalent to 9.3% of the average regional GDP of 98.5 billion during the same period. The Zhoushan archipelago sea area has high emergy density (ED) and low emergy self-sufficiency ratio (ESR), which shows low input–output efficiency for local use. In addition, the high purchased emergy (PR), high emergy exchange ratio (EER) and low renewable resources emergy ratio (%R) imply an increasing dependence on the outside social and economic inputs. Overall, Zhoushan sea area was in an early but steady state of development. The results can serve as a benchmark for policy making and implementation to achieve local sustainable development. As a tool for emergy-based sea area capital assessment, the model is of great significance for quantifying the ecosystem service value and accounting for marine/land natural capital value.

Evolution of Small and Micro Wetlands and Their Driving Factors in the Yangtze River Delta—A Case Study of Wuxi Area

Understanding the long-term dynamics and driving factors behind small and micro wetlands is critical for their management and future sustainability. This study explored the impacts of natural and anthropogenic factors on the spatiotemporal evolution of these areas in Wuxi area using the support vector machine (SVM) classification method and the geographic detector model based on Landsat satellite image data from 1985 to 2020. The results revealed that: (1) Natural wetlands were prominent in Wuxi area, with an average proportion of 70%, and although they exhibited a downward trend over the last ten years, the scale of natural small and micro wetlands increased 1.5-fold—from 4349.59 hm2 in 1985 to 10,841.59 hm2 in 2020. (2) The small and micro wetlands in Wuxi area had obvious seasonal variations, with most being 0.1–1 hm2 and 1–3 hm2, respectively. From the perspective of spatial distribution, they were primarily distributed in Yixing district, which accounts for 34% of Wuxi area. (3) The distribution of small and micro wetlands was systematically affected by natural and human activities. The main factors that affected the distribution of small and micro wetlands were the average annual temperature and GDP, with the interactions between all factors being nonlinear and bi-linear. The influences of natural factors on small and micro wetlands were weakened, with human activities steadily emerging as the dominant factor that affected their distribution. The results of this study can provide supportive data and a scientific basis for the ecological restoration and protection of wetlands.

ANALYSIS OF MOBILE TELECOMMUNICATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: EVIDENCE FROM ARDL MODELING

This study examines the impact of mobile telephone on economic growth in Nigeria using ARDL (Autoregressive distributed lag) as methodology, with data from 2001-2017. The study reveals that mobile penetration had a positive impact on real GDP per capita. Which means as more people get access to mobile phones, GDP per capita is expected to grow. 10% increase in mobile penetration will lead to a 0.5 % increase in average annual GDP per capita. The study concludes that mobile telephony can aid sustainable economic development when used appropriately, with the full participation of all stakeholders, especially in a country like Nigeria. The intrinsic value of telecommunications lies not in easing communications and information, but in enabling growth and development. The study recommends that Consumer protection policies are needed to protect consumers from unfair calls and mobile data charges will ensure consumer get the value for their money, which will lead to increased consumption and investment in the industry.

Predictors of happiness: regression modeling as a basis for determining the necessary actions and decisions

Identifying predictors of subjective well-being (happiness)-LS is one of the tasks of economics of happiness – a new direction of interdisciplinary scientific research. This is due to the recognition of the happiness of the population as a priority of state policy in accordance with the principle of people-centeredness in the 5.0 economy. The purpose of the study was to conduct a multiple linear regression analysis (MLRA) and identify the most significant predictors, to carry out experimental model calculations for Ukraine in order to determine the vectors and priorities of state efforts. The information base of the study was a sample of data from the World Happiness Report and The IMD World Competitiveness Ranking for 2021 for 54 countries of the world. The originality of the research consists in conducting the MLRA as a whole for all sample cranes and separately for 2 subgroups of countries (“Rich countries” and “Poor countries”), separated by the criterion of objective well-being – the average GDP per capita (40 thousand dollars)). Statistically significant regression models with a high value of the correlation and determination coefficient were obtained, which link the dependent variable LS and its predictors. It is statistically confirmed that the predictors of happiness are: SS – social support, HLE – healthy life expectancy, FLS – freedom to make life choices, GDP – GDP per capita; for the subgroup “Affluent countries” – SS – social support, DI – female/male income ratio, InfrHealth – health care infrastructure, G – generosity (listed in descending order of influence). The quality of the built model for the subgroup “Poor countries” is recognized as low, it is recommended to use the general model. Experimental calculations of the predictive value of the dependent variable LS for Ukraine were carried out when individual predictors were changed. The obtained results should be the basis for the development of a state program for increasing the happiness of Ukrainians in the course of the post-war revival of Ukraine.

The effect of urbanization on CO2 emissions in Vietnam - Approached by the autoresgressive distributed lag model (ARDL)

This paper examines the effect of urbanization on CO2 emissions in Vietnam from 1986 to 2021. By applying the Autoregressive Distributed Lag model (ARDL) to co-aggregation, the study analyzes both short-run and long-term relationship between urbanization and emissions. The research is based on time series data collected from reputable organizations around the world (World Bank - WB, World Energy Analysis Agency - IEA). Two control variables, average GDP per capita and technological progress (measured through the total number of patent applications by residents and non-residents) are included in the analysis model. The results show that there is a cointegration relationship between the variables. Urbanization increases emissions in both the short and long term. In addition, GDP per capita and the number of patent registrations (representing the technological innovation variable) are found to change the degree of impact of urbanization on CO2 emissions in both the short and long run. Thereby, the findings provide implications in increasing the level of urbanization associated with sustainable economic development based on the application of green technology in the economy.

Housing inequality in relation to housing tenure: Evidence from Ho Chi Minh City

Unfair distribution of social resources, including valuable assets such as housing, leads to inequality and threatens the sustainable development of countries. This phenomenon is a hot issue, attracting the attention of many researchers worldwide. Ho Chi Minh City is considered one of the economic-financial centers of Vietnam, with a high average annual GDP growth rate, rapid urbanization, and the flow of migrant workers to live and work has increased rapidly in recent years. Although many achievements are based on outstanding developments, Ho Chi Minh city has faced many difficulties in housing policy due to the limited urban land fund, colossal population, and housing prices many times higher than the residents’ income. It is shown that there are difficulties in access to affordable housing in Ho Chi Minh City, especially for the population's low- and middle-income segments. This creates inequality and considerable pressure on housing development policy in urban areas. The article uses OLS regression to analyze issues related to housing inequality in Ho Chi Minh City in the relaion to living space and homeownership, then gives some implications for housing policy toward improving the quality of living standards in terms of residential conditions. Research data is taken from a survey of 700 households in Ho Chi Minh City conducted by the author in 2020. The results show that household income, working time, age, education, household size, and a household with small business activity at home affect the household living space area. In addition, these factors have different impacts on families with housing tenure. The author believes that in the future, the government should focus on improving education, providing stable jobs, and planning suitable housing places to ensure equitable distribution of social resources, including housing.

ПРОМЫШЛЕННОЕ ПРОИЗВОДСТВО В СТРАНАХ ЕВРАЗИЙСКОГО ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКОГО СОЮЗА И СОСТОЯНИЕ ВЗАИМНОЙ ТОРГОВЛИ

Identifying the competitive advantages of the EAEU countries within the framework of mutual industrial and production cooperation, leveling emerging problems and searching for new opportunities are important for the active development of the economies of each state, using the existing potential, creating an independent fundamental and sustainable industrial base. According to the official statistics of the Eurasian Economic Commission, the total gross domestic product of the countries of the Eurasian Economic Union for the period from 2017 to 2022. increased by 44%, amounting to 2.6 trillion US dollars. The average annual GDP growth rate of the EAEU countries for the period from 2017 to 2022 amounted to about 1.5%. The highest share of industrial production in the gross domestic product (hereinafter referred to as GDP) in the countries of the Eurasian Economic Union (over 50%) is noted in the Republic of Belarus (88–89%), as well as in the Russian Federation (64%). The average level of industrial specialization in the structure of GDP is noted in Kyrgyzstan (44–46%), in Kazakhstan (42–47%), and also in Armenia (33–32%). On average, in the Eurasian Economic Union, the largest share in industrial production belongs to the manufacturing industry (64–65%), followed by mining (24–27%), electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning (7–9%), as well as water supply (1.7–2.0%). In order to integrate the joint industrial capabilities of the EAEU, to intensify work to create conditions for the development of union cooperation, an industrialization map was created in 2019. In modern conditions, it is necessary to strengthen innovative technological cooperation between the EAEU countries, joint production of machinery, machinery, equipment, increase the production of electrical equipment, metallurgical, leather and footwear, textile, knitwear and food industries in a closed cycle. In addition, it is important to conduct joint scientific research and develop measures to stimulate cooperation, including the creation of joint technological platforms, industrial clusters, the involvement of small and medium-sized businesses, the formation of cooperative chains for the production of joint products based on territorial and geographical opportunities.

Préparation estimée et vulnérabilité des pays face à la pandémie de COVID-19: Elaboration et approbation de l'Index global

La pandémie de COVID-19 et ses conséquences socio-économiques ont provoqué une augmentation notable du rôle de l'estimation de la préparation et la vulnérabilité des pays. Cela s'ajoute aux investigations existantes dans le cadre des ont internationales et des classements multidimensionnels, et présente des résultats d'évaluation complexe au niveau national de la préparation et la vulnérabilité face à la pandémie, à partir des index multidimensionnels proposés par les auteurs. L'objectif de cette recherche était d'estimer le niveau de préparation national et la vulnérabilité d'un point de vue complexe. Un index multidimensionnel global a été calculé et utilisé pour donner un classement des pays à partir de cette méthodologie. L'index a permis aux auteurs de conclure qu'il y a une différence importante dans le niveau de préparation face à une pandémie et une disproportion entre certains éléments du système pour chaque pays. L'analyse des données, les sources et les rapports ont souligné le besoin d'étendre la liste des indicateurs pour évaluer le niveau de vulnérabilité. L'opportunité d'utiliser cet index est prouvée par l'analyse corrélative statistique entre les sous-index et le niveau de morbidité et mortalité due au COVID-19. L'index est utilisé pour former des groupes multidimensionnels et le partitionnement de données permet d'estimer les conséquences économiques de la pandémie. Les résultats du partitionnement de données ont permis de former quatre groupes de pays : (1) très vulnérables avec faible niveau de préparation ; (2) vulnérables avec faible niveau de préparation ; (3) vulnérables avec haut niveau de préparation ; (4) peu vulnérables avec haut niveau de préparation. L'analyse comparative des conséquences économiques (changement annuel PIB en 2020-2019 par rapport à PIB en 2019-2017), taux de chômage et changement de l'inflation ont montré des disproportions de l'influence de la pandémie par groupes de pays.

Determinants Of The Instability Of The Russian Economic Growth

Based on a detailed comparative analysis of the concepts of "economic growth" and "economic development", the article provides arguments in favor of the thesis that from the post-default period to the present day, the Russian economy demonstrates not only steadily fading average annual GDP expansion rates, but also the so-called "impoverishing growth", "growth without development". The leading characteristic of the low-quality growth is recognized as the long-term evolution of the domestic economy in the vein of the historically futile natural resource export model, which, through the mechanisms of the "Dutch disease" and regular fluctuations in global energy prices, moves in an excessively cyclical form, inevitably making the socio-economic development of the country unstable. Significant determinants of its unstable growth, carefully concealed by the methods of misleading macroeconomic statistics presented in the article, are also uncovered being the dominance of extensive factors over the intensive ones associated with increasing macroeconomic efficiency and achieving accumulation rates close to the optimum values, the socially conflicting nature of GDP growth, accompanied by the excessive income inequality, both in terms of income and property, even in the relatively favorable conditions compared to global practice, and the resource-intensive and wasteful nature of the dynamics of the national economy.

Trends in the spread of excessive economic inequality in the modern world and prospects for overcoming it

The study is devoted to the problem of excessive economic inequality, which leads to lagging behind developing countries, especially the countries with lower middle and low income, to an increase in the population at the level of extreme poverty, depriving them of the opportunity to receive education, decent work, and income to ensure the quality of life. Based on the Madison Project's database of historical statistics, the authors show that since the 1820s, economic disparity between developed and developing countries has steadily increased. And since the 1960s, this inequality in the level of economic development, measured by the average GDP per capita according to the PPP, began to grow rapidly. The authors put forward assumptions about the negative impact on this trend of international economic and financial institutions, which, through cooperation with developing countries, implement liberal principles in the domestic and foreign policies of these countries. Economic liberalization was carried out by all developed countries to overcome the public financial crisis caused by excessive public spending on economic growth and social protection in the 1970s. Later, international organizations began to transfer this experience to countries with economies in transition and developing countries in the form of stabilization programs, development programs, etc. But the consequence of liberal reforms in these countries was the destruction of their economic systems, institutions, values, culture, and even the memory of the historical path which makes them weaker and more dependent. Analyzing changes in such indicators as the average GDP per capita according to the PPP of the countries of the world, the incomes of various categories of the population, the trade balance index, the index of the economic complexity of the country's exports, the authors prove that the economic inequality between the countries of the Western Branch and Western Europe (according to Maddison's classification) and all other countries at these only increases. Therefore, the implementation of the unified liberal recommendations of international organizations to improve economic mechanisms and state and social institutions in most countries of the world has devastating consequences: loss of competitiveness, technological backwardness, negative trade balance, public debt, inflation, unemployment, and the growth of excessive economic inequality. To overcome it, the countries of the world should apply certain balanced instruments of protectionist policy.

Prediction of Spatiotemporal Changes in Sloping Cropland in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River Region under Different Scenarios.

With the rapid urban expansion and extensive occupation of cropland, sloping cropland has become an important cropland resource across China. How sloping cropland will change under different socioeconomic scenarios is poorly understood. Therefore, we modeled land-cover change using SSP-RCP multi-scenario simulations and analyzed the evolution and driving factors of sloping cropland change in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River Region (MRYRR). The results indicate the following: In the past twenty years, the cropland and sloping cropland areas in this region declined but the proportion of sloping cropland in total area has been increasing. The average slope of sloping cropland has increased from 7.95° to 8.28°. By 2035, the sloping cropland and total cropland areas will continue to decrease according to the current trend (SSP2-4.5). The average slope will increase maximally to 8.63° under the SSP4-3.4 scenario and minimally to 8.45° under the SSP4-6.0 scenario. Under SSP4-3.4, the extent of slope increase will exceed that in 2005-2010, when regional cropland slope showed the strongest increase in the past. Among 14 social, economic, and ecological factors, average annual precipitation and GDP contributed the most to the change in sloping cropland. This study provides support for decision-making in sustainable land resource allocation to balance urban expansion and cropland conservation.

STRATEGY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE EXPORT-IMPORT POTENTIAL OF THE KYRGYZ REPUBLIC IN A MARKET ECONOMY

The article examines the growth rates from the period 2000 to 2019, as well as the reform of the foreign economic sphere, increasing the export potential of the country and how capable the national industry and individual enterprises are to improve their competitive position in the world market and win new market segments abroad. In the period from 2000 to 2019, the average GDP growth rate of the country was 4.4%, which allowed the Kyrgyz Republic to rise to the category of countries with incomes below the average by 2014. Three decades ago, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Kyrgyzstan was one of the poorest countries in Central Asia. Economic growth has contributed to improving the well-being of the population: the poverty rate has decreased by 50% (from 60% in 2000 to 30% in 2010), but since then there has been little further reduction in the number of poor. In 2019, against the background of the absence of significant external and internal destabilizing phenomena, macroeconomic policy was focused mainly on ensuring positive dynamics of economic growth and keeping the inflation rate within the target.

Spatial Effect of Ecological Environmental Factors on Mumps in China during 2014–2018

(1) Background: although mumps vaccines have been introduced in most countries around the world in recent years, mumps outbreaks have occurred in countries with high vaccination rates. At present, China remains the focus of the global fight against mumps. This study aims to observe the epidemic characteristics and spatial clustering patterns of mumps and to investigate the potential factors affecting the disease incidence, which could provide novel ideas and avenues for future research as well as the prevention and control of mumps. (2) Methods: we used ArcGIS software to visualize the spatial distribution and variation of mumps. Spatial autocorrelation analysis was applied to detect the spatial dependence and clustering patterns of the incidence. We applied the Spatial Durbin Panel Model (SDPM) to explore the spatial associations of ecological environmental factors with mumps. (3) Results: overall, the incidence rate showed a significant upward trend from 2014 to 2018, with the highest number of cases in the 10-15-year age group and from May to June. Geographically, the high incidence clusters were concentrated in southern regions, including Hunan, Hubei, Chongqing, Guizhou, Guangdong, and Guangxi. This study also found that mumps has a positive spatial spillover effect in the study area. The average temperature and GDP of the local and adjacent areas have a significant impact on mumps. The increase in PM2.5 contributes to the rise in the incidence of mumps in this region. (4) Conclusions: these results can offer some novel ideas for policymakers and researchers. Local meteorological conditions and economic levels can extend to surrounding areas to affect the occurrence of mumps, so regional cooperation becomes particularly important. We recommend investment of public health funds in areas with a high incidence of mumps and developing economies to reduce and control the incidence of mumps.

Analyzing Spatio-Temporal Change in Ecosystem Quality and Its Driving Mechanism in Henan Province, China, from 2010 to 2020

Henan Province is an important ecological barrier in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River. It is of great significance to study its ecosystem quality and the driving mechanisms behind this in order to realize ecological conservation and high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin. In this study, from the perspective of physical elements, socioeconomic elements, and policy adjustments, multi-source data on land use, population density, forestry engineering, and other indicators were selected to construct an index system of the driving factors of ecosystem quality in Henan Province. The characteristics of spatio-temporal change and the formation mechanism of ecosystem quality in Henan Province from 2010 to 2020 were analyzed by comprehensively using the gravity center analysis method and a geo-detector tool. The results showed the following: (1) The ecosystem quality of Henan Province in 2020 has increased by 27.7% compared with that in 2010, and the center of gravity of ecosystem quality continued to move to the northwest of Henan Province. The quality of ecosystems in the hilly region of Western Henan, Tongbai, and Nanyang was better than that in the northern Loess Platform Hilly Area and the Yellow River Plain, and it presented a spatial pattern in which the quality of the south was higher than that of the north, while the east and west were equal; (2) From 2010 to 2020, the average GDP and population density in Henan Province were the most important factors affecting the quality of its ecosystem. The effect of land-use diversity on ecosystem quality in the hilly region of Henan Province was stronger than that in the central and eastern plains; and (3) The interactions among the driving factors were mainly nonlinear enhancement and double factor enhancement, in which the interaction between socio-economic elements and natural environmental elements was the dominant interaction mode and could enhance the impact on the quality of the regional ecological environment. The results of this study indicate that attention should be paid to generating targeted industrial economy layout and land use policies in different natural domains. Moreover, forestry protection engineering policies should be further strengthened to improve the resilience of ecosystem quality to human activities.