Average GDP Research Articles

Scrutinizing the load capacity curve for a global perspective: The role of Fintech, government effectiveness and renewable energy

With the evolving world order, countries are using financial technologies (Fintech) to access financial resources more effectively, and Fintech can have an impact on the environment. This study aims to investigate the influence of Fintech on ecological sustainability, focusing on the contribution of renewable energy (RE) and government effectiveness (GE) under the Load Capacity Curve (LCC). This research analyzes data from 69 middle-income economies between 2006 and 2022 using the dynamic panel threshold model (DPTR). The outcomes document that GDP reduces the LCF below a certain threshold, but a positive impact above this threshold. Specifically, the model yielded a threshold value of $US 5222.234, which is higher than the average GDP of $US 4276.802. This finding suggests a U-shaped relationship between GDP and LCF, which supports the LCC hypothesis. The outcome also reports that Fintech plays a crucial role in improving ecological sustainability, while government effectiveness has a negative effect. The study emphasizes that middle-income countries should support Fintech and renewable energy along development with economic progress to improve ecological quality.

Health, an ageing labour force, and the economy: Does health moderate the relationship between population age-structure and economic growth?

Abstract Research often suggests that population ageing will be detrimental for the economy due to increased labour market exits and lost productivity, however the role of population health and disability at older ages is not well established. Identifying whether the health of older people affects economic outcomes is challenging due to methodological issues. Using country-level panel data, we estimate the relationship between the size of the older working age population (aged 55-69) and economic growth across 180 countries from 1990 to 2017. We run models using annual data and 5-year moving averages of real per capita GDP growth as dependent variables. This enables us to quantify the gains in real per capita GDP growth associated with a healthy older working-age population on a country-by-country basis. The initial models confirm an inverse-U or hump-shaped relationship between population age groups and economic growth. In the 5 year average GDP growth model, the coefficient for the inverse of YLDs among 55-69 year olds is positive and significant at p < 0.01. The interaction term is significant at p < 0.001 in the same model. Across all countries, a 5% improvement in YLDs is associated with at minimum 0.3% predicted additional annual real per capita GDP growth. While a larger share of the older working-age population at ages 55-69 has historically been associated with slower real per capita GDP growth, low levels of disability in this age group can reduce or even eliminate these adverse economic effects. We consistently find a significant positive interaction between disability and the share of the population at ages 55-69, suggesting that adverse economic effects are amenable to policy intervention.

The Impact of Financial Development on Unemployment: The Case of the People’s Republic of China (PRC)

Research Originality: As a populous country with a population of 1.4 billion, China faces the imperative issue of employment. This paper focuses on the impact of financial credit and financial deposits on different levels of unemployment in an attempt to analyse the unemployment problem in China.Research Objectives: The paper explores the impact of financial development on unemployment in China.Research Methods: Using panel data from 31 provinces and cities in China (spanning from 2007 to 2021), categorizing unemployment situations, employing quantile regression models to assess the impact of financial development on different levels of unemployment in China.Empirical Results: The findings indicate a negative correlation between financial development and unemployment levels in China. The study reveals that financial credit significantly impacts unemployment in provinces where the economy is higher than average GDP. However, in regions where the economy is lower than average GDP, the impact of financial deposits on unemployment is significant.Implications: This study establishes that the adoption of financial expansionary policies by the government can reduce unemployment and help guide the formulation of more precise and effective economic policies.JEL Classification: G21, E24, C33, O53How to Cite:Yixin, L., Radzi, N.A.M., Ma, M., & Saidi, N.A., (2024). The Impact of Financial Development on Unemployment: The Case of the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Etikonomi, 23(2), 353 – 368. https://doi.org/10.15408/etk.v23i2.37997.

Exploring the impact of auditor industry specialization on income smoothing

Since the late 1970s’ reform and opening-up, China’s economy has achieved remarkable success, maintaining an average annual GDP growth of 9.7% from 1978 to 2006. In 2007, China achieved a GDP of 3.38 trillion USD, surpassing Germany to become the world’s third-largest economy, and by the second quarter of 2010, it had become the second-largest economy globally. These developments have attracted international investors’ attention to Chinese equities. However, China’s poor reputation for corporate governance may deter investors, despite their positive outlook on China’s economy. Corporate managers in China are known to engage in income smoothing, taking actions to dampen fluctuations in their firms’ publicly reported net income. In 2004, the OECD proposed that a strong disclosure regime promoting real transparency can help attract capital and maintain confidence in the capital market, with income smoothing being a key concern for both institutional and individual investors. This study investigates how auditor industry specialization (AIS) affects income smoothing behavior in Chinese listed companies. Using a sample of 27,208 firm-year observations from 2006 to 2018 collected from the Taiwan Economic Journal Database, the results indicate that AIS is negatively related to managers’ income smoothing behavior, underscoring the importance of industry expertise in mitigating such practices. Additionally, an independent t-test highlights the difference between Big Four and non-Big Four auditors in influencing client companies’ income smoothing behaviors. The study further demonstrates the significant moderating effect of Big Four auditors on the relationship between accounting firms with top industry expertise and client companies’ income smoothing, reflecting the unique characteristics of the Chinese market. This study verifies the suppressive effect of AIS on firms’ income smoothing and indirectly suggests that governments (or the Chinese Institute of Certified Public Accountants, CICPA) should regularly disclose accounting firms/auditors with industry expertise publicly. This regime can help global investors make informed investment decisions.

The Efficiency of Domestic Savings and Its Impact on The Average Per Capita GDP In Iraq For the Period (2003-2022)

Local savings are an essential source for financing sustainable development. The research is based on careful analysis due to the importance of local savings in the Iraqi economy for the period (2003-2022) to provide the necessary local financing necessary for development investments in infrastructure and investments that enhance economic growth and productivity, generate job opportunities, and achieve The goals and indicators of sustainable development and the extent of the efficiency of those local savings and their impact on the average per capita share of GDP. The research aims to examine the effect of the efficiency of local savings on the level of per capita income of GDP. Moreover, it analyzes the potential impact on income distribution in the local community. The research adopts a multi-faceted approach that uses quantitative data to analyze the statistical relationships between the level of efficiency of local savings and the average per capita income from the gross domestic product, as local savings constitute an essential part of the local and national economy. The research starts from the hypothesis that the efficiency of local savings is represented by both the Local resource gap and the financing gap, which impacts the average per capita output and is linked to a causal relationship with the efficiency of local savings. The importance of this significant impact on the average per capita income, as local savings rates, the efficiency of these savings, and the local savings and financing gaps in Iraq were analyzed by cointegration analysis. The most important results showed that increasing the efficiency of local saving is linked to an increase in local investments, thus improving the level of per capita income and that there is a direct relationship between the Local resource gap and the average per capita share of GDP and an inverse relationship between the financing gap and the average per capita share of GDP.

Role of Institutions in Transition Economy: Case of Nepal

The Paper highlights role of institutions in transition economy. Obviously, the author confirms that Nepal is still in the transition stage where institutional and ethical norms are yet to establish though many political changes occurred in a short span of time. Nepal adopted liberal market economy for speedy economic growth enticed with robust human development. The study attempts to take measure the outcome of new political-economic regime. The objectives of the study are-(i) to assess role of government institutions on economic growth and development in Nepal and (ii) to evaluate institutional performance of Nepal in comparison to other South Asian countries. The secondary data is used for the analysis which captured the period from 2014 to 2022. The data is analysed descriptively. The deductive method is used for the generalization. The study concludes that the average inflation GDP per capita, GDP growth, and doing business are 6.12 percent, 9968.22 USD, 3.36 percent, and 60.11 respectively. Control of corruption performance of Nepal is almost negative throughout the period. Transparency coefficient is medium i.e. 3 out of 6. In the same way, voice and accountability coefficient is also very poor throughout the time Relative analysis suggests that economic variables are sound in Maldives and Bhutan and development variables are sound in Bhutan. In aggregate, Bhutan has done marvellous performance. In both parameters, economic and development, Nepal's position is not encouraging. It is recommended to the government and political parties that they need to understand the urgency of matter and reform government as well as political institutions at the earliest.

Analysis of the Relationship Between Fiscal Policy and Economic Security in Iraq

This research analyzes some indicators of fiscal policy, specifically focusing on public expenditure, government revenue, and the general budget balance. It also examines certain indicators of economic security, including the average GDP per capita, agricultural GDP, and non-oil GDP, in an attempt to measure the extent of influence and the role that these policies could play in achieving economic security during the years 2004 to 2021, particularly after the establishment of the political system in Iraq.Through study, analysis, and the use of quantitative methods in processing, the research reveals a disparity between the trajectories and orientations of fiscal policy and the achievement of economic security in Iraq. Fiscal policy has often been centered on the reliance on a single quarterly resource, namely oil revenues, resulting in the economy's persistent dependency and vulnerability to fluctuations in the global economy. This situation has had negative or positive implications for the living standards of Iraqi citizens

Connecting GDP Per Capita and Average Life Expectancy

Economic growth is a single dimensional concept, one of the most used measures for which is GDP per capita. On the other hand, economic development is a multi-dimensional concept with average life expectancy as the most popular measure. As per economists, economic growth might lead to economic development but not always. This paper sets out to find the exact level of correlation by using the two variables- average life expectancy and GDP per capita. This is done through the analyzation for the data over 5 years of 20 countries out of which 10 are LEDCs and 10 are MEDCs, situated globally. Simple methods such as mean, and standard deviation as well as complex methods including box-and-whisker graphs and Pearson’s product-moment correlation are used. This paper accordingly tests various hypotheses and uses the analyzed data to be able to prove if they are correct or not. Suggestions of future methods to improve the conduction of a study as such on a wider scale are also expressed.

Willingness to pay per quality-adjusted life year among inpatient colorectal cancer patients treated at Xuyen A General Hospital system 2022 - 2023

Background: In Vietnam, colorectal cancer is one of the top five cancer types with the highest incidence rates. The concept of Willingness to Pay (WTP) is the estimated cost value that consumers are willing to pay for the health benefits received and ranges from 1 to 3 times the average GDP per capita. Objective: This study aimed to assess the WTP threshold among inpatient colorectal cancer patients at Xuyen A General Hospital, providing vital insights for evaluating patients’ access to treatment methods and formulating appropriate healthcare policies. Methods: A cross-sectional descriptive study was conducted on all inpatient colorectal cancer patients treated at Xuyen A General Hospital from August 2022 to February 2023. Results: The study revealed a male-to-female ratio of 1:1.3, with an average age of 54 years. About 40.1% had an educational level below high school, and 49.2% were farmers or laborers. Additionally, 77.2% were of the Kinh ethnic group, and 97% had no religious affiliation. Approximately 24.9% of patients were diagnosed at stage 2. The study identified a positive correlation between the quality of life assessed using EQ-5D-5L with statistical significance (Sig < 0.05). The highest WTP threshold was found in the age group < 33 years (74,571,428.6 VND), and the lowest was in the age group > 66 years (18,985,294.1 VND). Conclusion: Factors influencing the WTP threshold encompass educational level, personal income, and household income (p < 0.05). Understanding these factors is crucial in developing strategies to enhance affordability and accessibility to colorectal cancer treatments in the Vietnamese context. Key words: Willingness to Pay per Quality-Adjusted Life Year, colorectal cancer, Xuyen A General Hospital.

Financial Development and Its Effect on Inclusive Growth in Kenya 2000 – 2022

Purpose: In the past decade, Kenya’s economy registered an average real GDP growth rate of 4.63 percent. Despite this growth, many people have been locked out of social and economic opportunities, with 19.1 percent of the Kenyan population living in poverty. This has intensified the need for inclusive growth, a growth model that promotes shared prosperity. Several studies have shown that financial systems that function well play a great role in the economy through the provision of key financial services that drive growth. However, there is a lack of substantial inquiry into financial development and inclusive growth in Kenya. This study sought to examine this relationship for the period 2000-2022. Methodology: The study employed a causal research design and used time series data that was collected from various databases. The level of inclusiveness in Kenya was analyzed using an inclusiveness matrix. An inclusive growth index was constructed, which was then used to empirically test the effect of financial development on inclusive growth. The data was presented in tables and figures. Findings: The inclusiveness matrix shows that despite positive economic growth rates, there is a low rate of equity growth, which shows that Kenya has a low level of inclusivity. The empirical results show that bank deposits and private-sector credit have a positive and statistically significant effect on inclusive growth. A 1% increase in bank deposits leads to a 0.074% increase in inclusive growth. When private-sector credit increases by 1%, inclusive growth expands by 0.070%. Bank return on assets has a positive but insignificant effect on inclusive growth. The study confirms that financial depth and access to financial services are the most conducive to inclusive growth in Kenya. Other determinants of inclusive growth include initial income, human capital development and macroeconomic stability. The overall findings suggest that financial development can be used to create economic opportunities for poor people in Kenya, thus reducing income disparities. Unique Contribution to Theory, Practice and Policy: The study has contributed to the ongoing conversation on inclusive growth, specifically on its measurement. The empirical results on the finance-inclusiveness nexus provide evidence-based policy interventions that can help in reducing income disparities and enhancing shared prosperity. The findings imply that policymakers and practitioners need to focus their attention on promoting financial access and financial depth in marginalized regions to create a significant impact on inclusive growth in Kenya.

Can the military be a better manager of the economy?

AbstractPakistan has struggled for a political system suitable for its postindependence development; however, repeated struggles between democracy and dictatorship have slowed Pakistan's economic growth. I quantified the impact of military dictatorship on Pakistan's economy from 1999 to 2008 using synthetic control methods. I found that while the average annual GDP per capita growth grew during the military dictatorship, it was four times lower than synthetic Pakistan's. I conclude that the military did not help Pakistan with its economic malaise. The increase in military expenditure and the prevalence of terrorism due to the military dictatorship may have hindered Pakistan's economic growth.

Sustainable Income, Employment, and Income Distribution in Indonesia

Production and consumption activities in any economy have a direct impact on the environment. Although increased economic activity and population growth in developing countries continue to exert enormous pressure on their natural environments, the role of the environment is neglected in the estimation of national income. Such neglect at the macroeconomic level is at least in part, an important cause of environmental degradation in developing countries. Since the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development in 1992 at Rio and even as early as middle of the 1980s, a substantial literature had developed on methods to integrate the environment into the economic development process. The main assertion in this literature is that natural resources represent a form of capital that is analogous to the stock of manufactured capital. Sustainable income can be determined by allocating a portion of income to allow for the deprecation of natural capital [Ahmed, El Serafy, and Lutz (1989) and Solow (1992)]. Indonesia had average real GDP growth rates of more than five percent per year up to the early 1990s [World Bank (1994)]. But income inequality (measured by the Gini coefficient) has been high. Although inequality continues to be quite high, especially between rural and urban populations, Indonesia has been successful in poverty alleviation up to mid 1990s. In 1976 almost 40 percent of its population was below the poverty line, which in 1993 decreased to less than 14 percent [Todaro (1994)]. Income distributional consequences of economic growth would continue to be one of the main policy issues in Indonesia. This is due to its large population size, presence of different ethnic and religious groups, large diversity between rural and urban groups, variety of natural resources scattered over the country, huge distances and the effects of a far-flung archipelago [Akita, Lukman, and Yamada (1999)].

AI-Driven Prediction of Average Per Capita GDP: Exploring Linear and Nonlinear Statistical Techniques

Average per capita GDP income is an important economic indicator. Economists use this term to determine the amount of progress or decline in the country's economy. It is also used to determine the order of countries and compare them with each other. Average per capita GDP income was first studied using the Time Series (Box Jenkins method), and the second is linear and non-linear regression; these methods are the most important and most commonly used statistical methods for forecasting because they are flexible and accurate in practice. The comparison is made to determine the best method between the two methods mentioned above using specific statistical criteria. The research found that the best approach is to build a model for predicting Iraq’s average GDP per capita income by relying on the amounts of average GDP per capita income in the past years (1981-2020). The researcher found that in a second way, it became clear that the non-linear regression model of the Asian model was the best model representing (average per capita GDP income) in Iraq, and this model was used to predict the period (20221-2027). When comparing the two methods of projected amounts up to 2027, it was found that the best method was the second based on the indicator mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) because he has the least value.

Arab world's impact on bladder cancer research and opportunities for growth: A bibliometric review study.

Bladder Cancer (BC) is a widespread form of cancer that affects over 1.6 million people globally. The majority of cases are diagnosed as urothelial carcinoma, with a higher likelihood of diagnosis in men and with increasing age. The Arab world (AW) is one of the regions with the highest incidence and mortality rates of BC, and the average age of diagnosis is between 40 and 49 years in North Africa and the Middle East. This study aims to assess the activity and distribution of BC publications in the AW. A systematic search across MEDLINE and Embase databases spanning 2007 to 2021 identified 1208 English-language articles on bladder cancer with Arab affiliations. The dataset was normalized against the average population and GDP (2007-2020) for 22 Arab countries. Statistical analyses via SPSS and visualizations with VOSviewer unveiled collaboration patterns and thematic trends in Arab bladder cancer research. A total of 1208 BC publications were published in the AW, representing 0.24% of all biomedical publications. Egypt topped the list with the highest number of publications. The co-authorship analysis generated by VOSviewer revealed that out of 4766 authors, 161 met the minimum threshold of 5 publications. The findings reveal that Egypt and Jordan are at the forefront of BC research in the region, while other Arab countries are lagging behind despite being heavily impacted by the disease. To drive progress in the field, it's important to uncover the obstacles impeding BC research in these countries and implement effective solutions to overcome them.

Dinamika dan Daya Saing Sektor Pertanian di Kabupaten Padang Pariaman, Sumatera Barat

Regional economic development is closely related to the role of the agricultural sector. In addition to food production, agriculture also contributes to the absorption of labor. During the COVID-19 pandemic, regional economic growth in Indonesia tended to decline, as well as in Padang Pariaman. Padang Pariaman will have a negative growth rate of 10.46% in 2020, the lowest compared to the average GDP growth rate of the other region in West Sumatra. This study aims to determine the dynamics and competitiveness of the agricultural sector compared to the other sectors. The research was conducted in a quantitative and descriptive manner using time series data for the period 2016–2020 from BPS. Data analysis using Klassen typology and shift share analysis. The results showed that the agricultural sector has an average share of 21.37% of the GDP of Padang Pariaman. Based on Klassen's typology analysis, the agriculture sector was included in the potential sector category in 2017–2019 but shifted to the developed sector category in 2020. Despite experiencing slow growth, the results of shift share analysis show that the agricultural sector in Padang Pariaman is still competitive. Increasing the competitiveness of the agricultural sector can be pursued by expanding sector linkages with the other economic sectors and increasing diversification of economics activities in agricultural sector Keywords: agricultural sector; shift share analysis; tipology klassen

The Impact Analysis of Bauxite Downstreaming on the Indonesian Economy: Case Study in PT Bintan Alumina Indonesia

This research analyzes the impact of investment and bauxite downstream activities by PT Bintan Alumina Indonesia (PT BAI) on the Indonesian economy using the input-output method applied to the Riau Islands Province, West Kalimantan Province and Indonesia. The imposition of stimulus on sectors related to the construction phase and operational phase of the alumina and aluminum industry in the Galang Batang SEZ is the concept that underlies how final demand in other sectors is affected. Economic improvement is characterized by increased output, GDRP, people's income, and the creation of job opportunities. During the construction phase of PT BAI (2016-2029), it generally had a positive impact on the increase in output, income, average GRDP, and average job creation in 52 industrial sectors in the Riau Islands Province. During the operational phase, calculated through three scenarios applied to the Riau Islands Province, West Kalimantan, and Indonesia, with the assumption of full downstreaming of PT BAI's products into the domestic market, shows the greatest impact. The impact includes the increase of Indonesia's output value until 2030 reaching IDR 547.07 trillion, an average annual GDP growth of 0.099 percent, a national income increases until 2030 reaching IDR 74.22 trillion, and an average job creation of 107,105 people per year in 52 industrial sectors in Indonesia. To achieve the optimal target of PT Bintan Alumina Indonesia's (BAI) presence in the domestic bauxite value chain, strengthening the downstream process and downstream industries of alumina and aluminum domestically is needed. Fiscal incentives, the establishment of pro-downstream regulations, and investor protection are crucial to implement.

Measuring the impacts of the two-child policy on industrial structure and economic growth in china using a CGE model

Facing the challenge of population aging and labor force shrinking, the Chinese government has been trying to reform its family planning policy since 2015. This paper analyzes the impacts of China’s Two-child policy on economic growth and industrial structure from 2020 to 2060 using a dynamic Computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. This paper constructs an effective labor input index accounting for changes in educational attainment and labor force participation rates by age and sex to simulate the effects of the demographic changes on labor supply and economic growth, rather than using simple working-age measures. This paper sets two policy scenarios, the One-child policy and the Two-child policy, to simulate the changes in the employment structure, industrial structure, and main macroeconomic indicators under different population policies. The main finding is that under the Two-child policy, the average GDP growth rate is expected to be 0.3% and 1.0% points higher than the One-child policy in the period of 2015–2030, and 2045–2060; the employment growth rates of the manufacturing and service industries are higher than that under the One-child policy; the shift of industrial structure from manufacturing to service industry will be slightly slower than the One-child policy. The positive impacts of the Two-child policy on China’s economic growth are not significant in the short run. From the perspective of the quantity, structure and quality of labor supply, this paper reveals how a more relaxed family planning policy will affect labor supply, and ultimately affect economic structure and growth in a long run.

An Exploratory Study on Globalization and Psychological Consequences on Sustainable Economic Development

India’s global economy has grown rapidly since 1991, with an average annual GDP increasing from 3.5% to 7.7% between 2002-2012. Globalization, a process involving immigration, trade, and idea exchange, offers opportunities like increased trade, investment, and employment but also presents challenges like inadequate infrastructure, inequality, and identity issues. The concept of grounded globalization was developed in 2002, allowing psychology to develop a theoretical and empirical understanding of globalization in psychology. This study focuses on how globalization influences the psychological functioning of sustainable economic development, particularly in adolescence, as adolescents play a vital role in globalization. This study employs an exploratory survey design. Five hundred eighty-four samples were enquired about how globalization influences psychological functioning for sustainable economic development. Tools such as ANOVA and linear regressions confirm that Identity issues are central to adolescent development, and globalization indirectly affects how changes influence people, reactions, and acceptance rates. Globalization has led to significant psychological changes in identity, resulting in bicultural identities, identity confusion, and self-selected cultures. This study examines the psychological impact of globalization on bicultural identities, identity confusion, self-selected cultures, and the spread of emerging adulthood.

Does unequal economic development contribute to the inequitable distribution of healthcare resources? Evidence from China spanning 2001–2020

BackgroundThere is a dearth of research combining geographical big data on medical resource allocation and growth with various statistical data. Given the recent achievements of China in economic development and healthcare, this study takes China as an example to investigate the dynamic geographical distribution patterns of medical resources, utilizing data on healthcare resources from 290 cities in China, as well as economic and population-related data. The study aims to examine the correlation between economic growth and spatial distribution of medical resources, with the ultimate goal of providing evidence for promoting global health equity.MethodsThe data used in this study was sourced from the China City Statistical Yearbook from 2001 to 2020. Two indicators were employed to measure medical resources: the number of doctors per million population and the number of hospital and clinic beds per million population. We employed dynamic convergence model and fixed-effects model to examine the correlation between economic growth and the spatial distribution of medical resources. Ordinary least squares (OLS) were used to estimate the β values of the samples.ResultsThe average GDP for all city samples across all years was 36,019.31 ± 32,029.36, with an average of 2016.31 ± 1104.16 doctors per million people, and an average of 5986.2 ± 6801.67 hospital beds per million people. In the eastern cities, the average GDP for all city samples was 47,672.71 ± 37,850.77, with an average of 2264.58 ± 1288.89 doctors per million people, and an average of 3998.92 ± 1896.49 hospital beds per million people. Cities with initially low medical resources experienced faster growth (all β < 0, P < 0.001). The long-term convergence rate of the geographic distribution of medical resources in China was higher than the short-term convergence rate (|βi + 1| > |βi|, i = 1, 2, 3, …, 9, all β < 0, P < 0.001), and the convergence speed of doctor density exceeded that of bed density (bed: |βi| >doc: |βi|, i = 3, 4, 5, …, 10, P < 0.001). Economic growth significantly affected the convergence speed of medical resources, and this effect was nonlinear (doc: βi < 0, i = 1, 2, 3, …, 9, P < 0.05; bed: βi < 0, i = 1, 2, 3, …, 10, P < 0.01). The heterogeneity between provinces had a notable impact on the convergence of medical resources.ConclusionsThe experiences of China have provided significant insights for nations worldwide. Governments and institutions in all countries worldwide, should actively undertake measures to actively reduce health inequalities. This includes enhancing healthcare standards in impoverished regions, addressing issues of unequal distribution, and emphasizing the examination of social determinants of health within the domain of public health research.

Carbon emissions prediction based on the GIOWA combination forecasting model: A case study of China

Mitigating greenhouse gas emissions is a significant global challenge, and precise prediction of carbon emissions holds the utmost importance for China to attain its dual carbon goal. To overcome the limitations of existing studies using a single forecasting method, based on quadratic exponential smoothing, multiple linear regression, and Gaussian process regression models, this paper constructs a carbon emission combination forecasting model with the generalized induced ordered weighted average (GIOWA) operator and analyzes carbon emission reduction performance. Empirical testing utilizing China's carbon emission data from 1980 to 2020 reveals the following findings: (1) The GIOWA combination forecasting model significantly enhances the accuracy of carbon emission forecasts, with an average accuracy exceeding 99.5% over the sample period, surpassing various single forecasting methods. (2) The carbon emission reduction target can be achieved under three different scenarios of low, average, and high GDP growth rates. Specifically, under the low growth rate scenario, China can achieve a 60% reduction in carbon intensity by 2025 and a 65% reduction by 2030. This study offers valuable decision support for the development of effective carbon reduction policies.