Average Estimation Research Articles

Simultaneous treatment effect estimation and variable selection for observational data

Due to the difficulties inherent in conducting controlled experiments, recent causal inference studies have focused on developing treatment effect estimation using observational data. One major difficulty in causal inference from observational data is that the underlying causal structure is unknown. This may result in the misidentification of potential sources of causal estimation bias, such as confounders, which must be controlled for accurate estimation. To consider all possible confounders and other relevant information, conventional methods predominantly use all observed covariates indiscriminately. However, previous studies have shown that including all covariates without considering their causal relationships may deteriorate the estimation performance. Although several data-driven variable selection methods have been proposed for treatment effect estimation, they cannot distinguish the confounders from other outcome-related covariates and are limited to simple regression forms. In this study, we propose a method called the Variable Selection Causal Estimation Network (VSCEN) that performs treatment effect estimation and causal variable selection simultaneously. Through end-to-end differentiable training, the VSCEN selects only the covariates beneficial for effect estimation and uses only those selected for effect estimation. Experimental evaluations on fully synthetic, semi-synthetic, and real datasets demonstrate the VSCEN’s superior performance in conditional average treatment effect estimation and competitive performance in average treatment effect estimation along with its accurate variable selection capabilities.

Real-time tracking of radial artery vessel wall using a Kalman filter-based ultrasound single-plane wave RF signal time-frequency information fusion algorithm

ObjectiveThe goal of our study was to achieve real-time dynamic tracking of the radial artery vessel wall in everyday life, which is crucial for blood pressure estimation and cardiovascular disease prediction. MethodsThe algorithm integrates time–frequency information from ultrasound single-plane wave RF (radiofrequency) signals and consists of three main components: feature frame ROI (region of interest) selection, inter-frame cross-correlation and intra-frame autocorrelation, and feature frame Kalman filtering. ResultsExperimental validation on a silicone gel ultrasound phantom with simulated blood vessels demonstrates an average diameter estimation error of less than 0.5% compared to ground truth values. Comparative experiments show similar relative errors (2.83%, 2.43%) to the optical flow method, with a computational speed 7.32 times faster. The algorithm accurately aligns extracted pulse waves with pressure pulse waves at six local feature points per cycle. ConclusionThe proposed method achieves a favorable balance between speed and accuracy in tracking the radial artery vessel wall. It holds significant potential for real-time monitoring of physiological health parameters, offering precise and dynamic tracking capabilities. SignificanceThis algorithm addresses the challenges of non-invasive real-time tracking, benefiting blood pressure estimation and cardiovascular disease prediction. Its integration of time–frequency information and efficient computational speed make it valuable for the scientific community and public in monitoring physiological health parameters.

A fecal score approximation model for analysis of real-time quantitative PCR fecal source identification measurements

Numerous qPCR-based methods are available to estimate the concentration of fecal pollution sources in surface waters. However, qPCR fecal source identification data sets often include a high proportion of non-detections (reactions failing to attain a prespecified minimal signal intensity for detection) and measurements below the assay lower limit of quantification (minimal signal intensity required to estimate target concentration), making it challenging to interpret results in a quantitative manner while accounting for error. In response, a Bayesian statistic based Fecal Score (FS) approach was developed that estimates the weighted average concentration of a fecal source identification genetic marker across a defined group of samples, mathematically incorporating qPCR measurements from all samples. Yet, implementation is technically demanding and computationally intensive requiring specialized training, the use of expert software, and access to high performance computing. To address these limitations, this study reports a novel approximation model for FS determination based on a frequentist approach. The performance of the Bayesian and Frequentist models are compared using fecal source identification qPCR data representative of different ‘censored’ data scenarios from a recently published study focusing on the impact of stormwater discharge in urban streams. In addition, data set eligibility recommendations for the responsible use of these models are presented. Findings indicate that the Frequentist model can generate similar average concentrations and uncertainty estimates for FS, compared to the original Bayesian approach. The Frequentist model should make calculations less computationally and technically intensive, allowing for the development of easier to use data analysis tools for fecal source identification applications.

Using dispersion models at microscale to assess long-term air pollution in urban hot spots: A FAIRMODE joint intercomparison exercise for a case study in Antwerp

In the framework of the Forum for Air Quality Modelling in Europe (FAIRMODE), a modelling intercomparison exercise for computing NO2 long-term average concentrations in urban districts with a very high spatial resolution was carried out. This exercise was undertaken for a district of Antwerp (Belgium). Air quality data includes data recorded in air quality monitoring stations and 73 passive samplers deployed during one-month period in 2016. The modelling domain was 800 × 800 m2. Nine modelling teams participated in this exercise providing results from fifteen different modelling applications based on different kinds of model approaches (CFD – Computational Fluid Dynamics-, Lagrangian, Gaussian, and Artificial Intelligence). Some approaches consisted of models running the complete one-month period on an hourly basis, but most others used a scenario approach, which relies on simulations of scenarios representative of wind conditions combined with post-processing to retrieve a one-month average of NO2 concentrations.The objective of this study is to evaluate what type of modelling system is better suited to get a good estimate of long-term averages in complex urban districts. This is very important for air quality assessment under the European ambient air quality directives. The time evolution of NO2 hourly concentrations during a day of relative high pollution was rather well estimated by all models. Relative to high resolution spatial distribution of one-month NO2 averaged concentrations, Gaussian models were not able to give detailed information, unless they include building data and street-canyon parameterizations. The models that account for complex urban geometries (i.e. CFD, Lagrangian, and AI models) appear to provide better estimates of the spatial distribution of one-month NO2 averages concentrations in the urban canopy. Approaches based on steady CFD-RANS (Reynolds Averaged Navier Stokes) model simulations of meteorological scenarios seem to provide good results with similar quality to those obtained with an unsteady one-month period CFD-RANS simulations.

Lower average estimate for the minimum modulus on circles foran entire function of genus zero

The article was written based on the materials of the joint report of the authors, made by them at the Sixth International Conference “Functional spaces. Differential operators. Problems of mathematical education,” dedicated to the centenary of the birth of Corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Academician of the European Academy of Sciences L.D.Kudryavtsev. For an entire function represented by a canonical product of genus zero with positive roots, the following result is proved. For any \(\delta\in(0,1/3]\), the minimum modulus of such a function exceeds on average the maximum of its modulus raised to the power \(-1-\delta,\) on any segment whose end ratio is equal to \(\exp(
 2/\delta).\) The main theorem is illustrated by two examples. The first of them shows that instead of the exponent \(-1-\delta\) it is impossible to take \(-1.\) The second example demonstrates the impossibility of replacing the value \(\exp(2/\delta)\) by the value\(28/(15\delta)\) in the theorem for small \(\delta.\)

Peripheral vascular function in stroke: systematic review and meta-analysis.

Peripheral vascular dysfunction, measured as flow-mediated dilation (FMD), is present across all phases of stroke recovery and elevates the risk for recurrent cardiovascular events. The objective of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to characterize baseline FMD in individuals' poststroke, with consideration for each phase of stroke recovery. Three databases (PubMed, CINAHL, and Embase) were searched between January 1, 2000 and October 12, 2023 for studies that examined baseline FMD in stroke. Three reviewers conducted abstract and full-text screening, data extraction, and quality assessment. A random effects model was used to estimate FMD across studies. Meta-regression was used to examine the impact of age and time since stroke (acute, subacute, chronic) on FMD. Twenty-eight studies with ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke were included. Descriptive statistics for the demographics and FMD values of each study are presented. For the meta-analysis, average estimate FMD was 3.9% (95% CI: 2.5-5.3%). We report a large amount of heterogeneity (Cochrane's Q P value <0.001, and I2 = 99.6%). Differences in average age and the time poststroke between studies were not significantly associated with differences in FMD values. Despite the large heterogeneity for FMD values across studies, our primary finding suggests that FMD remains impaired across all phases of stroke.NEW & NOTEWORTHY This systematic review and meta-analysis offers invaluable insight into poststroke vascular function. Despite the inherent heterogeneity among the 28 studies analyzed, we report that peripheral vascular dysfunction, as quantified by flow-mediated dilation, exists across all stages of stroke recovery. This finding underscores the importance for interventions that focus on improving vascular health and secondary stroke prevention.

Methodological moderators of average outdegree centrality: A meta-analysis of child and adolescent friendship networks

AbstractEmpirical articles vary considerably in how they measure child and adolescent friendship networks. This meta-analysis examines four methodological moderators of children’s and adolescents’ average outdegree centrality in friendship networks: boundary specification, operational definition of friendship, unlimited vs. fixed choice design, and roster vs. free recall design. Specifically, multi-level random effects models were conducted using 261 average outdegree centrality estimates from 71 English-language peer-reviewed articles and 55 unique datasets. There were no significant differences in average outdegree centrality for child and adolescent friendship networks bounded at the classroom, grade, and school-levels. Using a name generator focused on best/close friends yielded significantly lower average outdegree centrality estimates than using a name generator focused on friends. Fixed choice designs with under 10 nominations were associated with significantly lower estimates of average outdegree centrality while fixed choice designs with 10 or more nominations were associated with significantly higher estimates of average outdegree centrality than unlimited choice designs. Free recall designs were associated with significantly lower estimates of average outdegree centrality than roster designs. Results are discussed within the context of their implications for the future measurement of child and adolescent friendship networks.

Genetic features of the island populations of sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka (Walbaum, 1792) in Russian part of the species range

Sockeye salmon genetic diversity in the Kuril Islands (Iturup, Urup, Paramushir, Shumshu) and the Commander Islands (Bering Island) was examined on 7 microsatellite loci. Average estimates of the heterozygocity observed on different loci vary from 0.300 to 0.858. General estimate of genetic differentiation θst is 15%, with a 95% confidence bootstrap interval [10.40–21.18%]. The results obtained in the program BOTTLENECK 1.2.02 made it possible to identify the passage of the “bottle neck” by all island populations. Unique properties and significant differences from each other are shown for allfivчe populations examined. The level of sockeye salmon intrapopulation diversity found in the Kuril and Commander Islands is significantly lower compared to that in the continental water bodies, what is generally typical for marginal populations of the species range.

Should we trust cross‐sectional multiplier estimates?

SummaryI examine the properties of cross‐sectional estimators of multipliers, elasticities, or pass‐throughs when a conventional spatial macroeconomic specification generates the data. A number of important biases plague standard estimates; the most relevant one occurs when the units display heterogeneous dynamics. Methods that work well in this situation are suggested. An experimental setting shows the magnitude of the biases cross‐sectional estimators display. Average estimates of local fiscal multipliers in the US states are compared and contrasted.

Assessing the geological relationships between the mafic-ultramafic intrusion in the Haib area and the Vuurdood Subsuite, Richtersveld Subprovince

Abstract The Haib porphyry copper deposit is situated in the Richtersveld Subprovince and is host to unique Palaeoproterozoic porphyry copper mineralisation in Namibia. Several lines of evidence, including machine-learning geothermobarometry, indicate that the deposit is exposed at mid- to upper-crustal levels, as constrained from average pressure and temperature estimates of 4 kbar and 870°C, respectively. The Haib porphyry copper deposit is associated with, and is in close proximity to, a mafic-ultramafic intrusion named the Kokerboom Intrusion (KI) in this study. Together with several other mafic intrusions in this region, these intrusions are known collectively as the Vuurdood Subsuite of the Richtersveld Subprovince. The purpose of this study is to demonstrate a genetic link between the KI and the Vuurdood Subsuite using lithological characteristics, mineral and alteration assemblages, major and trace element geochemistry and U-Pb geochronology. Pyroxenites from the KI contain magmatic sulphides and have a geochemical affinity with shallow plutonic and volcanic rocks of the Haib porphyry, providing a unique mid-crustal perspective on porphyry copper deposit metallogenesis.

THE REALITY OF MANAGEMENT BY OBJECTIVES AND THE DIFFICULTIES OF IMPLEMENTING IT IN BEIT SAHOUR PRIVATE SCHOOLS FROM THE POINT OF VIEW OF TEACHERS AND ADMINISTRATORS

The current study aimed to identify the reality of management by objectives and the difficulties of implementing it in Beit Sahour private schools from the point of view of teachers and administrators. To achieve the goal of the study, the researcher developed a questionnaire that included (44) items distributed over four areas, namely (setting goals, developing a plan, periodic review, presenting achievement), in addition to (8) items about the difficulties that stand in the way of applying the management by objectives method, and the researcher used Descriptive method. The study population consisted of all administrators in Beit Sahour schools, who numbered (27), and all male and female teachers in these schools, who numbered (137). While the sample consisted of (59) male and female teachers and (13) administrators. The study reached the following results: • The teachers and administrators in Beit Sahour private schools are at a level of agreement regarding management by objectives, as the arithmetic mean was (4.16) • Teachers and administrators in Beit Sahour private schools take a “neutral” position in the face of the difficulties of applying the management by objectives method, as the arithmetic mean was (2.70) with a standard deviation of (0.78). • There are no significant differences between the averages of the study sample members’ estimates of the reality of management by objectives among private school teachers and administrators in the city of Sahour due to the variable of gender, job title, or academic qualification. However, it was found that there were statistically significant differences for the axis of periodic review due to the academic qualification variable, and the differences were For the benefit of teachers and administrators who hold a bachelor’s degree. • There are statistically significant differences between the average estimates of the study sample members for the axes of setting goals, developing a plan, and evaluating achievement among teachers and administrators of private schools in the city of Sahour due to the years of experience variable. The differences were in favor of teachers and administrators with years of experience less than 5 years. There were no statistically significant differences for the periodic review axis. • It was found that there were no statistically significant differences between the average estimates of the study sample members regarding the extent of measuring the difficulties facing the application of the management by objectives method among teachers and administrators of private schools in the city of Beit Sahour due to the gender variable, the academic qualification variable, or the job title variable, while there were differences with respect to the experience variable. These differences were in favor of teachers and administrators with more than 10 years of experience

Bees display limited acclimation capacity for heat tolerance.

Bees are essential pollinators and understanding their ability to cope with extreme temperature changes is crucial for predicting their resilience to climate change, but studies are limited. We measured the response of the critical thermal maximum (CTMax) to short-term acclimation in foragers of six bee species from the Greek island of Lesvos, which differ in body size, nesting habit, and level of sociality. We calculated the acclimation response ratio as a metric to assess acclimation capacity and tested whether bees' acclimation capacity was influenced by body size and/or CTMax. We also assessed whether CTMax increases following acute heat exposure simulating a heat wave. Average estimate of CTMax varied among species and increased with body size but did not significantly shift in response to acclimation treatment except in the sweat bee Lasioglossum malachurum. Acclimation capacity averaged 9% among species and it was not significantly associated with body size or CTMax. Similarly, the average CTMax did not increase following acute heat exposure. These results indicate that bees might have limited capacity to enhance heat tolerance via acclimation or in response to prior heat exposure, rendering them physiologically sensitive to rapid temperature changes during extreme weather events. These findings reinforce the idea that insects, like other ectotherms, generally express weak plasticity in CTMax, underscoring the critical role of behavioral thermoregulation for avoidance of extreme temperatures. Conserving and restoring native vegetation can provide bees temporary thermal refuges during extreme weather events.

Roles for leakiness and O2 evolution in explaining lower-than-theoretical quantum yields of photosynthesis in the PEP-CK subtype of C4 plants.

Theoretically, the PEP-CK C4 subtype has a higher quantum yield of CO2 assimilation ( ) than NADP-ME or NAD-ME subtypes because ATP required for operating the CO2-concentrating mechanism is believed to mostly come from the mitochondrial electron transport chain (mETC). However, reported is not higher in PEP-CK than in the other subtypes. We hypothesise, more photorespiration, associated with higher leakiness and O2 evolution in bundle-sheath (BS) cells, cancels out energetic advantages in PEP-CK species. Nine species (two to four species per subtype) were evaluated by gas exchange, chlorophyll fluorescence, and two-photon microscopy to estimate the BS conductance (gbs) and leakiness using a biochemical model. Average gbs estimates were 2.9, 4.8, and 5.0 mmol m-2 s-1 bar-1, and leakiness values were 0.129, 0.179, and 0.180, in NADP-ME, NAD-ME, and PEP-CK species, respectively. The BS CO2 level was somewhat higher, O2 level was marginally lower, and thus, photorespiratory loss was slightly lower, in NADP-ME than in NAD-ME and PEP-CK species. Differences in these parameters existed among species within a subtype, and gbs was co-determined by biochemical decarboxylating sites and anatomical characteristics. Our hypothesis and results partially explain variations in observed , but suggest that PEP-CK species probably use less ATP from mETC than classically defined PEP-CK mechanisms.

Average weighted estimate of health of forest trees as a criterion for the sanitary condition of a stand

The issue of using a weighted average assessment of the health of trees condition Kср as a criterion for the sanitary condition of a stand on the example of spruce and birch forests. Based on the growth tables, Kср developed for five categories of tree health status with differentiation of results by age groups and assessment methods (by stock volume or by number of trees). It showed that exceeding Kср of 1.5 is not a sufficient criterion for the unsatisfactory sanitary condition of the stand. For a stand with natural thinning by age the estimations Kср are increase from Ia to V quality of locality and are decrease with age groups. The estimates Kср by number of trees may exceed similar estimates by stock volume by 0.1-0.3 points. For a young and middle age of healthy stands with natural thinning, the evaluations Kср usually exceed 1.5 points. Proposed the criteria Kср with the differentiation on age groups and assessment methods. As rough criterion of unsatisfactory sanitary state it is possible to accept excess of average weighted of estimations (on a stock volume/on number of trees): Kср :in middle-aged stands - 1,7/2,0, in ripening stand - 1,5/1,7, in ripe and maturity and old-growth stand 1,2/1,4. Keywords: CONDITION OF FOREST STAND, WEIGHTED AVERAGE ESTIMATE

Consistency of averaged impulse response estimators in vector autoregressive models

We show root‐T consistency of the smoothed AIC and smoothed BIC model averaging estimators (sAIC, sBIC) of impulse response coefficients in stationary vector autoregressive models of finite lag order. We also show that there is not one unique way to define the sAIC and sBIC estimators, but that instead there is a whole class of each of these defined by a weight scaling factor that allows the averaging estimator to become more similar to either its model selection counterpart or the equal weights averaging estimator. We also show asymptotic validity of a bootstrap method for estimating the averaging estimators' distributions. Simulations illustrate the benefits of using sAIC instead of AIC estimators.

SOC estimation of lead–carbon battery based on GA-MIUKF algorithm

The paper proposes a SOC (State of Charge) estimation method for lead–carbon batteries based on the GA-MIUKF algorithm. The GA-MIUKF algorithm combines GA (Genetic Algorithm) for global search and optimization with the MI-UKF (Multi-innovation Unscented Kalman Filter) algorithm for estimating the SOC of lead–carbon batteries. By establishing an equivalent circuit model for the battery, the GA is employed to globally search and optimize the battery model parameters and the noise variance parameters in the MI-UKF algorithm. Comparative analyses with the UKF (Unscented Kalman Filter) algorithms and MI-UKF algorithms reveal that the SOC estimation method based on the GA-MIUKF algorithm yields more accurate results for lead–carbon battery SOC estimation, with an average estimation error of 2.0%. This highlights the efficacy of the proposed approach in enhancing SOC estimation precision.

A Comparative Study on the Estimation of Wind Speed and Wind Power Density Using Statistical Distribution Approaches and Artificial Neural Network-Based Hybrid Techniques in Çanakkale, Türkiye

In recent years, wind energy has become remarkably popular among renewable energy sources due to its low installation costs and easy maintenance. Having high energy potential is of great importance in the selection of regions where wind energy investments will be made. In this study, the wind power potential in Çanakkale Province, located in the northwest of Türkiye, is examined, and the wind speed is estimated using hourly and daily data over a one-year period. The data, including 12 different meteorological parameters, were taken from the Turkish State Meteorological Service. The two-parameter Weibull and Rayleigh distributions, which are the most widely preferred models in wind energy studies, are employed to estimate the wind power potential using hourly wind speed data. The graphical method is implemented to calculate the shape (k) and scale (c) parameters of the Weibull distribution function. Daily average wind speed estimation is performed with artificial neural network–genetic algorithm (ANN-GA) and ANN–particle swarm optimization (ANN-PSO) hybrid approaches. The proposed hybrid ANN-GA and ANN-PSO algorithms provide correlation coefficient values of 0.94839 and 0.94042, respectively, indicating that the predicted and measured wind speed values are notably close. Statistical error indices reveal that the ANN-GA model outperforms the ANN-PSO model.

VTIL: A multi-layer indoor location algorithm for RSSI images based on vision transformer

As WiFi technology becomes more widespread and integrated, precise location tracking within complex indoor environments is gaining significance in contemporary public spaces.Nevertheless, challenges persist in indoor scenarios, including issues such as noise and multi-path effects stemming from the degradation of the Received Signal Strength Indicator (RSSI). Additionally, obstacles causing signal shading contribute to a decrease in the accuracy of indoor location tracking. Within this paper, we introduce an innovative indoor localization algorithm termed Vision Transformer Indoor Localization (VTIL). This algorithmleverages RSSI and Vision-Transformer (ViT) technologies to enhance indoor positioning accuracy. Initially, the RSSI fingerprints undergo normalization by scaling them to the maximum and minimum values. To mitigate the impact of noise and irrelevant features, the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) algorithmis then employed for effective feature extraction.Secondly, the RSSI fingerprint library is converted into an RSSI gray image library. Then the RSSI gray image is divided into several small blocks, and the position-coding input is performed in the form of a sequence. The ViT model divides the weight ratio of each block in the RSSI image to alleviate the impact of multi-path effects. According to the experimental results using public datasets, our approach achieves a noteworthy 37.26% reduction in the average distance estimation error when compared to existing indoor fingerprint localization algorithms.

Rate of Beta-Lactam Resistance and Epidemiological Features of S. Aureus-Associated Bovine Mastitis in Cross-Bred Ethiopian Cows: Systematic Review.

Dairy cows get mastitis from a common infection called Staphylococcus aureus. Because of its broad distribution across diverse populations and capacity to acquire antibiotic resistance, this particular bacterial strain presents a serious threat to public health. The main goals of this study were to determine the beta-lactam resistance profile of S. aureus in Ethiopian dairy cows and to offer thorough epidemiological data. We employed manual searches, Web of Science, PubMed Central, and Google Scholar HINARI for electronic bibliographic data. Twenty-six epidemiological studies were included in this systematic review. Of these studies, 12 articles in Oromia, 4 articles in Addis Ababa, 4 articles in Southern Nations, Nationalities, and People's (SNNPRS), 3 articles in Tigray, and 3 articles in Amhara region. The average prevalence S. aureus were 34.3% in Oromia, 40.2% in Amhara, 39.5 in AA, 40% in Tigray and 21% in SNNPRS. The antimicrobial resistance rate of S. aureus, specifically in relation to beta-lactam drugs, exhibited an average estimation. Notably, penicillin resistance reached a rate of 75%, while amoxicillin resistance stood at 67%. Furthermore, it was determined that, when treating S. aureus, the resistance rates to ampicillin and cephalosporin were 50% and 57%, respectively. The results of this analysis have demonstrated a considerable rise in S. aureus prevalence and beta-lactam resistance within the Ethiopian geographic environment. This emphasizes the critical need for alternate therapeutic approaches and preventative measures in order to successfully lessen the disease's extensive spread and detrimental effects across the nation.

Displacement and damage analysis of earth dams during the 2023 Turkiye earthquake sequence

The earthquake sequence that occurred on 6 February 2023 in Turkiye caused significant damage to various infrastructures including geostructures such as dams. A total of 17 earth dams within a 200-km radius of the earthquake epicenter experienced varying degrees of damage, ranging from minor (∼2 cm) to major (up to ∼150 cm) deformations. As study of these reveals that the damaged dams are located within the closest distance to the fault of less than 30 km, with an average value of ∼12 km. This study specifically focuses on the seismic displacement analysis of the 17 damaged dams, utilizing the sliding block methods. The recorded motion data was analyzed using the kriging technique to estimate the spectral response at the dam sites. Moreover, the recorded ground motions were scaled to the resonant period of the dam site to estimate acceleration time history. The findings reveal that the rigid block analysis can provide an average estimation of seismic displacement with a relative error of less than 44%. The results of the damage analysis indicate that seven dams reached the ultimate limit state and two dams experienced the serviceability limit state. Moreover, the univariate and multivariate fragility functions are developed to estimate seismic probabilistic analysis of earth dams based on the observed data and the limit states. The results show that the selection of a single intensity measure (IM) and a combination of IMs can affect the predicted probability of failure. The findings provide an insight into the resilience assessment of dams and other geosystems during this strong earthquake.