Average Change Research Articles

Analysis of Russian scientific and technical journals in the field of control theory and systems

The article presents the analysis of Russian journals whose topics are related to the areas of activity of the Scientific Council on Control Theory and Processes at the Department of Energy, Mechanical Engineering, Mechanics and Control Processes of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Results of a survey of the leading Russian scientists in this field of science, including members of the council, helped to form a preliminary list of journals. The characteristics of these journals and their existing ratings are presented.It is noted that the well-known scientometric indicators do not allow one to evaluate the journals’ development pathways directly. A proposed indicator characterizes the average rate of change in a journal’s impact factor over a given time interval. The values of development indicators have been calculated and analyzed according to the Russian Index of Science Citation (RISC) and Scopus databases for the abovementioned journals included in these databases. The development pathways of some individual journals are considered.The article gives conclusions and recommendations that may be useful to the editorial staff – with a view to promoting their publications and to authors – in choosing a journal for publication.

Plasma levels of sCASP3 predicts carotid intima media thickness progression

Abstract Background Studies on human atherosclerotic plaques have shown that apoptosis is associated with rupture prone plaques and that apoptosis is a key process for fast plaque progression. In line with this, we showed that circulating levels of soluble Caspase-3 (sCaspase-3) predict atherosclerotic events. However, the relationship between circulating levels of apoptosis markers and plaque progression remains to be explored. Purpose Here we aimed to investigate if circulating levels of apoptosis markers could predict mean intima-media thickness in the common carotid artery (IMT-CCA) progression among individuals with atherosclerotic carotid plaques. Methods The Malmö Diet and Cancer (MDC) cardiovascular cohort was used. MDC is a prospective population-based cohort study. Baseline variables (blood, clinical information and carotid ultrasound measurements) were collected between 1991-1994 and the right carotid ultrasound re-examinations were performed between 1994-2001. IMT was measured at by ultrasound at baseline as well as at the re-examinations. The Olink Proximity Extension Assay (SciLifeLab, Uppsala, Sweden) was used to analyze plasma levels of sCaspase-3, sFADD, sCaspase-8, sTRAIL-R2 and sTNFR1 at baseline. Correlation and multiple linear regression analyses, adjusted for age, sex, and cardiovascular risk factors, were employed to evaluate the relationships between apoptosis biomarkers and IMT-CCA as well as average annual change in IMT-CCA. Results In total, 1929 participants (median age 60 years) with an ultrasound confirmed carotid plaque (focal IMT >1.2mm) at baseline were included. Subjects who underwent ultrasound IMT re-examination over a period of >4.5 years were divided into a discovery (n=406) and a validation (n=355) cohort. sCaspase-3 was identified as the marker with the strongest correlation to IMT-CCA at baseline (p=0.02) and upon re-examination (p=0.04), among the five apoptosis markers examined, in both the discovery and validation cohorts. sCaspase-3 also showed a correlation with the average annual change of IMT-CCA (r=0.12, p=8×10-4) in both cohorts. Furthermore, when diving the cohort into tertiles based on plasma levels of sCapase-3, subjects with high levels of sCaspase-3 (3rd tertile) had greater annual changes in IMT-CCA compared to the 1st tertile (p=0.03). Multiple linear regression analyses confirmed that sCapase-3 was associated with the average annual IMT-CCA change in both the discovery (beta=0.14, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.04–0.24) cohort and the validation cohort (beta=0.11, 95%CI 0.01–0.21). Conclusion Using a large, population-based study with repeated IMT measurements, we demonstrated that circulating levels of sCapase-3 were associated with increasing IMT in the CCA. While further studies are warranted, these results suggest that sCapase-3 levels could serve as potential screening marker to identify individuals at higher risk for plaque progression.

Increasing trends in hypertension-related mortality in European Union 27 countries from 2011 to 2019

Abstract Background Arterial Hypertension (HT) is one of the most common chronic cardiovascular disease in adults and a leading cause of disability and mortality worldwide. However, update data regarding the HT-related mortality trends in Europe are lacking. Therefore, we assess the age- and sex- specific trends in HT-related mortality in the 27 European Union Member States (EU-27) between years 2011 and 2029. Methods Data were retrieved from the free publicly available EUROSTAT death certificate database to examine age-adjusted HT-related mortality rates (AAMR) (per 100.000 people) and relative average annual percentage change (AAPC) across all European Union 27 countries (EU27) from 2011 to 2019 using the International Classification of diseases, Tenth Revision (ICD-10) codes I10-I13 and I15. To calculate annual trends in HT-related mortality, we assessed the average annual percent change (AAPC) and relative 95% confidence intervals (CIs) using Joinpoint regression analysis. Results Over the study period, 254.540 HT-related deaths (157,081 males) were listed in EU27. Age-adjusted HT-related death increased from 9.12 to 10.7 per 100,000 people [AAPC: +1.5% (95% CI: 0.8-2.0), p<0.001]. Specifically, the HT-related mortality increased in males [AAPC: +1.8 (95% CI: 0.9-2.6) while decreased in women [AAPC: -1.1 (95% CI: -2.0 to 0.2), p=0.001]. Additionally, the HT-related mortality rates increased in northern [+1.5 (95% CI: 0.7 to 2.3), p<0.001] and eastern [AAPC: +3.9 (95% CI: 2.3 to 5.4), p<0.001] EU-27 states. Conversely, the AAMR plateaued in southern [AAPC: -0.1 (95% ci: 0.6 to 0.7), p=0.96)] and western EU-27 countries [AAPC: 1.0 (95% CI: -0.1 to 2.1, p=0.07] over the same period. Conclusions In EU27, HT-related mortality increased from 2011 to 2019, especially in men. However, significant disparities in HT-related mortality rates still exist between different European regions.

Dynamics of Sandy Shorelines and Their Response to Wave Climate Change in the East of Hainan Island, China

Beach erosion and shoreline dynamics are strongly affected by alterations in nearshore wave intensity and energy, especially in the context of global climate change. However, existing works do not thoroughly study the evolution of the sandy coasts of eastern Hainan Island, China, nor their responses to wave climate change driven by climate variability. This study focuses on the open sandy coast and assesses shoreline evolutionary dynamics in response to wave climate variability over a 30-year period from 1994 to 2023, using an open-source software toolkit that semi-automatically identify the shorelines (CoastSat v2.4) and reanalysis wave datasets (ERA5). The shorelines of the study area were extracted from CoastSat, and then tidal correction and outlier correction were performed for clearer shorelines. Combining the shoreline changes and wave conditions derived from ERA5, the dynamics of the shorelines and their response to wave climate change were further studied. The findings reveal that the average long-term shoreline change rate along the eastern coast of Hainan Island is 0.03 m/year, with 44.8% of transects experiencing erosion and 55.2% showing long-term accretion. And distinct evolutionary patterns emerge across different sections. Interannual variability is marked by alternating erosion and siltation cycles, while most sections of the coast experiences clear seasonal fluctuations, with accretion typically occurring during summer and erosion occurring in winter. El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycles drive changes in parameters including significant wave height, mean wave period, wave energy flux, and mean wave direction, leading to long-term changes in wave climate. The multi-scale behavior of the sandy shoreline responds distinctly to the ongoing changes in wave climate triggered by ENSO viability, with El Niño events typically resulting in accretion and La Niña periods causing erosion. Notably, mean wave direction is the metric most closely linked to changes in the shoreline among all the others. In conclusion, the interplay of escalating anthropogenic activities, natural processes, and climate change contributes to the long-term evolution of sandy shorelines. We believe this study can offer a scientific reference for erosion prevention and management strategies of sandy beaches, based on the analysis presented above.

Overdiagnosis of lung cancer in Chinese populations

Abstract Background Low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) has been widely-used in employee health examinations in China since 2011. This study was designed based on the Cancer Surveillance data to quantify the overdiagnosis of lung cancer due to the introduction of LDCT in Chinese populations. Methods This registry-based cohort study included 46,978 incident cases and 34,475 deaths of lung cancer from Pudong New Area of Shanghai, China, during 2002-2020. We calculated the age-standardized rates (ASR) and average annual changes (AAC) of mortality and overall, stage-specific and histological type-specific incidence by sex to evaluate the potential overdiagnosis of lung cancer. We further estimated the numbers and proportions of lung cancer cases attributable to overdiagnosis by sex and period based on the comparison between the shape of the age-specific curves with that prior to the introduction of LDCT in the populations. Results The ASR of incidence of lung cancer increased rapidly since 2011 in both men (AAC: 1.90%; 95%CI: 0.87, 2.92) and women (AAC: 4.40%; 95%CI: 3.19, 5.62), whereas the ASR of mortality declined persistently, with AAC of -0.12% (-0.64, 0.39) in men and -0.19% (-0.47, 0.09) in women. The upward trends in incidence were mainly observed in women, for early-stage cancer and for lung adenocarcinoma. Overall, the overdiagnosis rate of lung cancer grew from 22% in 2011-2015 to 50% in 2016-2020 in women. Further analysis demonstrated elevated numbers (proportions) of lung adenocarcinoma cases attributable to overdiagnosis, which increased from 182 (8%) in 2011-2015 to 827(22%) in 2016-2020 in men, and from 1,842 (85%) to 4,171 (89%) in women. Conclusions This registry-based cohort study observed considerable and increasing overdiagnosis of lung adenocarcinoma in Chinese men and women. Guideline is urgently needed to maximize the benefits of LDCT screening and reduce the potential overdiagnosis of lung cancer in the populations. Key messages • The secular trends in incidence and mortality of lung cancer in Chinese populations demonstrated the overdiagnosis since 2011, when the LDCT was used as a part of staff health examination in China. • Overdiagnosis of lung cancer in Chinese populations increased incrementally over time and was mainly observed among women.

Trends in heart failure mortality in Sweden between 1997 and 2022.

Data from US have shown a reversal in the improvement of heart failure (HF)-related mortality over the last ~10 years. It is unknown whether these trends generalize to European universal healthcare systems. We assessed temporal trends in (i) HF-related mortality in the overall national population; and (ii) all-cause mortality following an incident HF diagnosis, overall and stratified by ejection fraction (EF), in Sweden between 1997 and 2022. Annual mortality rates with a HF diagnosis as underlying cause were extracted from the Cause of Death Register. All-cause mortality following incident HF was assessed in two HF cohorts derived from the National Patient Register (NPR) and the Swedish HF Registry (SwedeHF). Temporal trends were presented as average annual percentage change (AAPC). Between 1997 and 2022, age-adjusted HF-related mortality in the general population declined from 33.4 to 23.8 per 100 000 individuals (AAPC -2.15%, p < 0.001). In the HF cohort from NPR (n = 423 092), all-cause mortality at 1, 3, and 5 years following a first diagnosis of HF was 25%, 46%, and 58%, respectively, in 2022; 1-year mortality declined (AAPC -1.10%, p < 0.001) over time regardless of age or sex. In SwedeHF (n = 63 753), the decline in 1-year mortality was less steep with increasing EF (AAPC -2.64%, p < 0.001; -2.30%, p = 0.062; and -2.16%, p = 0.032 in EF <40%, 40-49%, and ≥50%, respectively). Heart failure-related mortality has declined over the last ~25 years in Sweden. All-cause mortality in patients with HF has also declined, more in HF with reduced than preserved EF, mirroring the different availability of life-saving treatments across the EF spectrum.

The Cardiovascular Disease Burden Associated with secondhand smoke, 1990-2019: an age-period-cohort analysis of the Global Burden of Disease study

Abstract Background Over the past three decades, global regions have shown significant differences in the burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD), and secondhand smoke is a major risk factor contributing to this burden. Nevertheless, a comprehensive understanding of the global trends and associations between second-hand smoke and cardiovascular disease is lacking. Methods Using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 1990-2019, an age-period-cohort (APC) analysis was conducted to investigate trends in cardiovascular disease-related mortality in populations affected by secondhand smoke globally over the past 30 years and its association with age, period, and birth cohort. Results Over the past 30 years, the number of cardiovascular deaths caused by secondhand smoke has increased significantly worldwide, from 432.6 thousand in 1990 (95% UI: 357.4-508.3) to 598.5 thousand in 2019 (95% UI: 489.7-713.5), an increase of 38.4% (95% UI: 26.8%-49.5%). In 2019, cardiovascular disease accounted for 45.9% of all deaths attributable to secondhand smoke in both men and women globally. Among cardiovascular diseases, ischemic heart disease became the main component, accounting for 66.4% compared with stroke. The gender composition of cardiovascular deaths due to secondhand smoke is slightly lower in men (46.5%) than in women (53.5%). Longitudinal analyses using age-time-cohort models show that global CVD-related mortality from secondhand smoke has improved overall over the past three decades, but there are differences between regions, genders, and CVD subtypes. It is worth noting that the higher the socio-demographic index (SDI) level, the greater the reduction in mortality, with a staggering 39.1% reduction in high SDI areas (95% UI: 35.6%-42.3%), in sharp contrast to virtually no change in mortality in low SDI areas (0.1% (95% UI: -52.4%-62.2%)). During the period 2003-2007, cardiovascular disease-related mortality decreased significantly, with an average annual percentage change of -1.48%. Conclusion The study highlights the importance of using secondhand smoke as a modifiable risk factor for the global burden of cardiovascular disease. Further research is vital to understand the factors that lead to differences in countries and regions at different levels of development, gender differences and differences in cardiovascular disease subtypes.

To compare 24 hour blood pressure values of a conventional 24 hours ambulatory blood pressure device versus a wristband using an artificial intelligence algorithm based on photophletysmography

Abstract Background Ambulatory Blood Pressure Monitoring is of high added value in determining blood pressure, but also highly relevant quantitatively, as hypertension is the single most common medical condition. Unfortunately, practical and qualitative limitations are numerous. Purpose To determine the accuracy of a novel wrist-worn cuff-calibrated photoplethysmography (PPG)-based remote patient monitoring device versus ambulatory blood pressure monitoring (ABPM). Methods The single-center prospective study included 40 adult patients with standard 24-hour ABPM with a 30-minute measurements. Participants used a wrist-worn PPG device during the ABPM period. Measurements of the average difference and standard deviation (SD) for the full 24-hour period as well as for awake and asleep periods were compared. Differences in awake-asleep BP change between the investigational and reference device were described for all, and per nighttime BP dipper category. And also, investigational BP monitoring accuracy under motion will be visualised. Results During the 24-hour period the absolute difference in average SBP and DBP was 3.65 (SD±4.57) and 2.98 (SD±3.91), respectively. Similar results were found for the subsets of day- and nighttime determinations. The absolute difference in average awake-asleep BP change was 2.36 (SD ± 2.40) for SBP and 2.17 (SD ± 2.13) for DBP. Comparable absolute differences were present within each of the nighttime dipper categories. The performance of the investigational device remained stable during motion. Conclusions This study demonstrates initial evidence supporting the accuracy of the evaluated wrist-worn PPG-based device in measuring 24-hour as well as day- and nighttime BP. In the average difference and SD remained within ISO-81060-2:2018 cut-off values from recent ESH guidelines. Therefore, the presented method can provide an accurate and more patient friendly alternative to ABPM.

Body mass index change and risk of poor oral health in Norwegian adults: the HUNT longitudinal study

Abstract Background Oral diseases and obesity share common risk factors and are highly prevalent. However, the relationships between body mass index (BMI), BMI change and oral health conditions in adults are less studied. In this study, we investigate the associations of long-term obesity and BMI change with risk of poor self-rated oral health among adults. Methods This study include individuals aged 29-90 years (57.8 % women, mean age at baseline, HUNT3, was 54.9 years) who participated in the first (HUNT1, 1984-86), second (HUNT2, 1995-97), third (HUNT3, 2006-08) and fourth (HUNT4, 2017-19) survey of the Trondelag Health Study (HUNT). Weight and height were measured at each survey. We estimated average BMI values and BMI change over a 10-year (HUNT2- HUNT3, N = 19,729) and 20-year (HUNT1- HUNT3, N = 14,276) period and linked to their information on oral health status at HUNT4. We employed logistic regression models with adjustment for confounders and computed odds ratio (OR) with 95 % Confidence Interval (CI). Results At HUNT4, 1812 (9.2 %) participants rated their oral health as poor or very poor. The multivariable-adjusted ORs for average BMI over 30 kg/m2 were 1.3 (95 % CI: 1.1-1.5) and 1.2 (95 % CI: 1.0-1.5) over a 10-year and 20-year period, respectively, when compared to normal weight. After adjustment for most recent BMI (HUNT4), the associations of long-term obesity with poor self-rated oral health weakened. Compared with stable BMI, both loss and gain in BMI over a 10-year period were associated with increased risk of poor oral health. In the adjusted analysis, we found that a BMI loss of more than 2.5 kg/m2 and a BMI gain of more than 5 kg/m2 was associated with 1.5 times (OR = 1.5, 95 % CI: 1.1-1.9) and 1.3 times (OR = 1.3, 95 % CI: 1.1-1.6) greater risk of poor oral health. Conclusions Our findings suggest that individuals with long-term obesity and BMI change have a markedly higher risk of poor self-rated oral health. Key messages • Long-term obesity was associated with increased risk of poor self-rated oral health. • Compared with stable body mass index (BMI), loss- and gain in BMI were associated with increased risk of poor self-rated oral health.

Gender disparities and infective endocarditis burden in the United States and European Union: a comparative analysis

Abstract Background Despite improvement in diagnostics and treatment options, infective endocarditis (IE) remains a significant burden for healthcare systems. While high-income countries have improved diagnosis of IE, the progress in interventional cardiology with a rise in cardiac devices associated infections, and people migrations offset some of these gains. Purpose To the best of our knowledge, there is a lack of comparative data between high-income countries, including the United States (US) and European Union (EU). Methods We collected the age-standardized rates of incidence (ASIR), deaths (ASDR), and disability-adjusted life years (ASDALYs) in the US and EU from 1993 to 2019 with the Global Health Data Exchange query tool. The Bayesian geospatial regression analysis and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) to quantify the trends in age-standardized rates (ASR) were used. The data were stratified based on the gender, year, and location. Results Males in the US had an overall ASIR of 17.2/100k with an increasing trend between 1993 and 2019, and an annual average rate of change of 0.8 % (EAPC of 0.8%). A similar trend and higher rates were noted in males in the EU, with ASIR of 20.9/100k and EAPC of 2.0%. For the same period, females in the US had lower ASIR than females in the EU (11.9/100k vs. 13.6/100k) , and lower annual percent change (1% vs. 1.3%). In the US, ASDR was higher in males than females (1.6/100k vs. 1.28/100k), but females had higher annual percentage change (EAPC of 2.7% in males and 3.3% in females). Compared to US, males and females in the EU had lower ASDR in 2019 (1.2/100k in males, and 1.0/100k in females) with lower annual percentage changes of 2.5% and 1.7%, respectively. The ASDALY was significantly higher in the US, for both males (34.6/100k) and females (25.5/100k), with a greater increase in an annual average rate of change of 2.7% in females than in males (2.2%). EU males had ASDALY of 24.9/100k with an EAPC of 1.8%, while females had 16.7/100K with an annual average increase of 1.2%. Figure 1, Table 1 Conclusion ASIR of IE appears to be higher in the EU for both males and females. Conversely, ASDR and ASDALY manifest higher rates in the US across both genders, with females notably demonstrating a higher annual percentage increase for these metrics. Further studies are needed to assess the nature of these differences and to inform health policies.The age-standardized rates in US and EUThe differences in the EAPC

Marfan syndrome in children: large, single centre experience on management and outcome

Abstract Introduction Beta-blockers (BBs) and angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs) have been proved to decrease the growth rate of the aortic root in Marfan patients, we describe our single centre experience at a large tertiary paediatric institution. Methods This is a retrospective longitudinal study of a large, paediatric only, Marfan cohort through review of medical notes for clinical data and treatment and assessment of serial echocardiograms. Results 167 patients were included, mean age at first assessment was 4.05 ± 3.12 years, 86 (51.50%) were males. 41 pts (24.55%) had a de novo FBN1 mutation. A 35.32% had a cysteine loss mutation. Median follow up was 9.54±4.37 years. 2 patients had a clinical and molecular diagnosis of early-onset Marfan, they both underwent mitral valve surgery in infancy and one of them died at 7 years old. No other deaths or acute aortic events in our cohort until transition to adult services at 18 years old. Of the entire study population 12 pts (7.2%) underwent aortic surgery at a median age of 13±7.02 years, 1 patient had a mitral valve repair. Chemoprophylaxis (currently only evaluated in a subgroup of our youngest 65 patients) was offered to all patients, 27.69% declined medicines. The remining 47 subjects are on treatment which was started at a mean age of 4.88 ±2.96 years, surveillance data available for a mean follow up of 2.75±2.41 years. 50 received BB (58.50% atenolol [average dose 0.79 mg/kg/day] and 19.15% bisoprolol [average dose 0.087 mg/kg/day]), 5 (8.51%) losartan [average dose 0.763 mg/kg/day], and 10 (15.38%) double therapy with BB and ARBs. The Sinus of Valsalva (SOV) z-scores, as assessed on echocardiograms and normalised according to Lopez dataset, showed a reduction over time in children treated with chemoprophylaxis (see figure 1). SOV mean z-score at starting treatment was 3.38 ± 2.06 which reduced to 2.79± 1.81, however, differences were not statistically significant (paired T-student p-value 0.078). In non-treated patients, initial SOV z-score was 1.89 ± 1.05. When comparing evolution there was a trend towards decreased average SOV z-score over the years in the treated group, not seen in the non-treated patients (see figure 2). No statistical differences in the SOV z-score reduction change were found when comparing different treatment groups (ANOVA p-value 0.851), but a tendency to more profound decrease in the losartan groups was observed. Reduction in blood pressure or heart rate did not differ amongst the treatment groups. Conclusions We present one of the largest single centre reviews on management of paediatric Marfan patients. Our data confirm a decrease in SOV z-score with chemoprophylaxis in a real-world cohort. This is in line with current evidence and corroborates clinical practice.SOV Z-SCORE EVOLUTION AFTER TREATMENTSOV Z-SCORE GROUP AVERAGE CHANGE

A study on the efficacy and safety of long-term adjusted low-dose gonadotropin-releasing hormone agonist therapy for uterine fibroids and adenomyosis.

To investigate the efficacy and safety of long-term adjusted low-dose gonadotropin-releasing hormone agonist therapy (GnRH agonist drawback therapy) with nafarelin acetate in patients with uterine fibroids and/or adenomyosis with menstrual symptoms. This single-center, retrospective, observational study initially included 118 patients with uterine fibroids and/or adenomyosis with menstrual symptoms who had received GnRH agonist (nafarelin acetate) drawback therapy for at least 7 months between 2010 and 2020. Blood hemoglobin level, maximum fibroid diameter, area of the corpus uteri, blood estradiol level, daily dosage of nafarelin acetate, and bone density in the lumbar spine and femoral neck were assessed before and after the treatment initiation. The median treatment period was 28 months. Menstruation had ceased in all patients. The median hemoglobin level significantly increased from 8.6 to 13.2 g/dL before treatment and at 12 months after the treatment initiation in patients with fibroids and from 8.8 to 13.3 g/dL in patients with adenomyosis, respectively. Although the treatment did not exert a significant shrinking effect on the fibroids and adenomyosis, an increase in their size was not observed in any patient. The initial dose of nafarelin acetate was 400 μg/day and was lowered to 130 μg/day at 12 months. Only 29 patients (25%) had an estradiol level <30 pg/mL. The average rate of bone density change over 6 months was -1.23% in the lumbar spine and -1.12% in the femoral neck in patients with fibroids and -1.06% in the lumbar spine and -0.14% in the femoral neck in patients with adenomyosis, which were lower than the previously reported rates. GnRH agonist drawback therapy was found to be useful for the long-term conservative treatment of uterine fibroids and adenomyosis. The treatment was safely and inexpensively performed with few adverse events.

An increasing trend of overweight and obesity in the Japanese incident end-stage kidney disease population.

The global prevalence of overweight/obesity has been rising, and this trend is apparent in US and European incident end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) populations. We aimed to examine temporal trends in the prevalence of overweight/obesity and underweight among adult incident ESKD patients in Japan by year of dialysis initiation between 2006 and 2019 in comparison with those observed in the Japanese adult population during the same period. Using data from the Japanese Society of Dialysis Therapy Renal Data Registry and the National Health and Nutrition Survey, the sex-specific prevalence of overweight/obesity and that of underweight (BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2 and <18.5 kg/m2, respectively) were calculated, adjusted for age according to the 2019 Population Census via the direct method. Average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated to examine trends. From 2006 to 2019, the age-adjusted prevalence of overweight/obesity in the incident ESKD population increased for males (AAPC 3.36 [95% CI, 2.70 to 4.09]) and females (AAPC 2.86 [95% CI, 1.65 to 4.19]). The age-adjusted prevalence of overweight/obesity in the general population increased for males (AAPC 0.87 [95% CI, 0.26 to 1.42]) but not for females (AAPC 0.01 [95% CI, -0.55 to 0.57]). The age-adjusted prevalence of underweight in the incident ESKD population significantly decreased but was higher than that in the general population for both sexes. An increasing trend of overweight/obesity was observed in the incident ESKD population in Japan. There is a pressing need to address both underweight and overweight/obesity in the incident ESKD population.

Temporal trends of thyroid cancer in China and globally from 1990 to 2021: an analysis of the global burden of Disease Study 2021

The incidence of thyroid cancer (TC) is increasing annually worldwide, with a growing burden. This study aims to analyze temporal trends in the burden of TC by age and sex in China and globally from 1990 to 2021, including incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates, and to predict future trends. We obtained data on TC in China and globally from 1990 to 2021 from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database. Using the Joinpoint regression model, we calculated and analyzed the trends in age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR). Specifically, we estimated the annual percent change (APC), the average annual percent change (AAPC), and the corresponding 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) for each metric. Additionally, we conducted a decomposition analysis to investigate the impact of aging, population growth, and epidemiological factors on the incidence and mortality rates of TC. Furthermore, the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was employed to predict the burden of TC from 2022 to 2036. From 1990 to 2021, the ASIR for TC in China increased from 1.249 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 1.009–1.473) per 100,000 to 2.473 (95% UI: 1.993–3.088) per 100,000. Conversely, the ASMR decreased from 0.473 (95% UI: 0.403–0.550) per 100,000 to 0.387 (95% UI: 0.307–0.472) per 100,000. Both males and females demonstrated an upward trajectory in ASIR. However, while the ASMR for females decreased, that for males showed an overall increase despite a decline in the last decade. The age of peak onset for TC ranged from 30 to 79 years, whereas the age of peak mortality was between 50 and 89 years. The analysis using the AAPC indicates that the growth in the ASIR (AAPC = 2.242, 95% CI: 2.112–2.371) and ASPR (AAPC = 2.975, 95% CI: 2.833–3.117) in China exceeds the global rate. Furthermore, the reduction in ASMR (AAPC = -0.651, 95% CI: -0.824 - -0.479) and ASDR (AAPC = -0.590, 95% CI: -0.787 - -0.392) in China is also more pronounced than globally. Decomposition analysis indicates that the increasing TC burden in China is primarily driven by population aging, whereas globally, population growth plays a more significant role. Projections based on predictive models suggest that from 2021 to 2036, the ASIR for both China and the global population is expected to continue rising, while the ASMR is anticipated to decline further. The incidence rates of TC in China and globally have shown a continuous upward trend, which is expected to persist over the next 15 years. Additionally, although the number of male TC cases is relatively lower compared to females, the overall ASMR and ASDR for males have shown an upward trend, despite a slight decline in recent years. This highlights the need to enhance prevention, diagnosis, and treatment measures, and to develop differentiated screening and treatment strategies based on age and sex.

Epidural Analgesia for End-of-Life Pain.

Objectives: While epidural anesthesia is an established technique for labor and perioperative pain, its use in the hospice setting remains limited, resulting in a reliance on oral opioids. We describe patients with intractable pain who pursued hospice enrollment with tunneled epidural analgesia for pain management. Methods: All patients who received a tunneled epidural prior to hospice enrollment between January 1, 2017, and September 20, 2023, were included. The medication infused, adverse effects, as well as changes in oral morphine equivalents (OME), pain scores, blood pressure, and heart rate were extracted from the medical record. Results: Seven patients underwent tunneled epidural placement for pain management. The average change in OME was -122.73 mg. Conclusions: Overall, tunneled epidural analgesia may be an underutilized method of pain management for patients at end-of-life with intractable pain. Further high-quality research on the subject is necessary to establish effectiveness, safety, and barriers to implementation.

Global burden, trends, and inequalities for typhoid and paratyphoid fever among children younger than 15years over the past 30years.

Typhoid and paratyphoid fever, collectively known as enteric fever, are systemic infections caused by Salmonella enterica and are highly prevalent in children. We aimed to describe the global burden, trends, and inequalities of enteric fever among children under 15years from 1990 to 2019 based on data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019). In this secondary analysis of GBD 2019, we extracted data for incident cases, deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) as measures of enteric fever burden. We estimated the average annual percentage changes (AAPC) in enteric fever incidence, mortality, and DALYs rate to quantify trends over time. Cross-country inequalities in enteric fever incidence were measured using the slope index of inequality and concentration index. In 2019, the global cases of typhoid and paratyphoid were 4 833 282 and 1 793 172, respectively, both lower than those in 1990. On secondary analysis, paratyphoid incidence decreased at a faster rate than typhoid from 1990 to 2009, whereas the incidence of paratyphoid (AAPC = -3.78, 95% CI: -4.07, -3.49) declined slower than that of typhoid (AAPC = -4.32, 95% CI: -4.50, -4.13) from 2010-2019 (P < 0.05) at the global level. The incidence burden of enteric fever increased in Australasia (AAPC = 1.28, 95% CI: 0.77, 1.78) and Western Europe (AAPC = 0.77, 95% CI: 0.44, 1.11). Death and DALYs burden in low socio-demographic index (SDI) region showed an stable trend. A significant reduction in SDI-related inequality occurred, with the concentration index falling from -0.31 in 1990 to -0.22 in 2019. The global disease burden of enteric fever and the magnitude of inequalities across countries have declined since 1990, but low SDI countries remain a region of concern. Travellers from Oceania and Western Europe to endemic regions should be particularly aware of the risk of enteric fever.

Sex, Racial/Ethnic, and Regional Disparities in Pulmonary Embolism Mortality Trends in the USA, 1999-2020.

While the National Institutes of Health emphasize integrating sex as a biological variable into research, specific considerations of sex-related differences in pulmonary embolism (PE) mortality trends remain scarce. This study examines sex-based PE mortality trends across regional and demographic groups in the USA from 1999 to 2020. A retrospective analysis of National Center for Health Statistics mortality data from 1999 to 2020 was conducted. Using ICD-10 code I26, PE decedents were identified. Piecewise linear regression assessed sex-based temporal trends in PE mortality by age, race/ethnicity, and census region. Annual percentage changes and average annual percentage changes were derived using Weighted Bayesian Information Criteria. The 95% confidence intervals were estimated using the empirical quantile method. From 1999 to 2020, a total of 179,273 individuals died in the USA due to PE, resulting in an age-adjusted mortality rate of 2.5 per 100,000 persons (95% CI, 2.5-2.5). While men and women exhibited comparable rates in recent time segments and across most subcategories, a higher mortality trend among males compared to females was observed among non-Hispanic White and Hispanic individuals and residents of the Western US census region. These results remained robust even after excluding data from 2020, accounting for the potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Our study highlights sex-based disparities in PE mortality trends in the USA from 1999 to 2020. Despite overall stable mortality rates, higher trends among males were evident in specific demographic groups and regions. These findings emphasize the importance of targeted interventions to mitigate PE-related mortality discrepancies across diverse populations.

Industry-Sponsored Research Funding to Urologists in the United States Between 2014 and 2022.

Urologists face challenges in obtaining public research funding, leading to increasing reliance on the industry for research support. This study aimed to examine the extent and trends in industry-sponsored research payments to urologists from 2014 to 2022 in the United States. We identified all US urologists using the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services National Plan and Provider Enumeration System database and extracted their industry-sponsored research payments data from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services Open Payments Database. We performed descriptive analyses of the payments data. Among 13,902 US urologists, 1330 (9.6%) received at least one industry-sponsored research payment. Urologists received $605.1 million between 2014 and 2022. Of all research payments, 98.7% ($597.4 million) were associated research payments for research where urologists served as principal investigators. The top 10% of urologists in research payments received 79.3% ($480.0 million) of total research payments. Only 0.4% ($2.3 million) of research payments were for preclinical research, whereas registered clinical trials totaled $159.0 million (26.3% of all research payments). The annual value of research payments increased from $35.2 million in 2014 to $101.7 million in 2022. The average percentage change in total payments showed a significant annual increase of 13.9% (95% CI, 11.6%-16.3%; P < .001) in value. There was no significant trend in the number of urologists receiving research payments. Industry-sponsored research payments to urologists are substantial and have increased in both payment amount and number over time.

Trends and age-period-cohort analysis of leukemia incidence in Qidong from 1972 to 2021

Objective: To describe the epidemiological characteristics and trends of leukemia incidence in Qidong between 1972 and 2021, and provide guidelines for prevention and control measures and strategies. Methods: The cancer registry data was collected and analyzed on leukemia incidence during 1972-2021 in Qidong by sex, age and time. Crude incidence rate (CR), China age-standardized rate (ASRC), world age-standardized rate (ASRW), and average annual change percentage (AAPC) was calculated by Joinpoint software. Age-period-cohort (APC) model was used to analyze the influence of age, period and birth cohort on the changes in the incidence trend of leukemia patients. Results: From 1972 to 2021, there were 2 948 patients with leukemia in Qidong, accounting for 2.00% of all cancer new cases, CR of leukemia was 5.26/105, ASRC was 4.34/105, ASRW was 4.35/105. The truncated incidence of 35-64 years old was 5.29/105, the cumulative incidence rate between the ages of 0 and 74 years old was 0.40%, the cumulative risk was 0.40%. There were 1 608 male patients, the CR, ASRC, and the ASRW were 5.81/105, 4.88/105 and 4.85/105. The number of female patients were 1 340, and the CR, ASRC, and the ASRW were 4.71/105, 3.86/105 and 3.91/105, respectively. Temporal trends indicated significant upward trends in ASRC among both gender, males and females with AAPC values of 1.41% (P＜0.001), 1.15% (P＜0.001), and 1.73% (P＜0.001), respectively. The results of the APC model showed that the average net drift value of leukemia incidence in all age groups was 1.57% (95% CI, 1.24%-1.89%), and the highest value of local drift was 3.20% (95% CI, 1.63%-4.78%) in the 80~ years old group. The incidence of leukemia increased with age. With the passage of time, the risk of leukemia incidence increased gradually compared with the rate ratio of leukemia incidence (risk ratio [RR], 1.00) in 1992-1996, the RR of leukemia incidence increased from 0.70 during 1972-1976 to 1.57 during 2017-2021. The later the cohort was born, the greater the risk of leukemia incidence compared with the relative risk of leukemia incidence (RR, 1.00) in 1952-1956 cohort, the RR of leukemia incidence increased from 0.24 in the 1892-1896 cohort to 2.73 in the 2017-2021 cohort. Conclusions: The incidence of the leukemia has presented a rising trend in the past fifty years. Leukemia incidence increased with age, and the period and cohort effects on the risk of incidence increase. Further research is needed to investigate the risk factors related to leukemia.

Global, regional, and national total burden related to hepatitis B in children and adolescents from 1990 to 2021

BackgroundHepatitis B remains a significant global health concern with widespread communicability. Nevertheless, data on its burden and trends in children and adolescents were limited. We aim to evaluate the global, regional, and national trends of total burden related to hepatitis B in children and adolescents aged 0–19 years from 1990 to 2021.MethodsThe age-standardized incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were calculated by the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study from 1990 to 2021. These indicators were stratified by sex, age, socio-demographic index (SDI), and disease stage. We calculated the correlation between them and SDI. The temporal trends were examined using the annual average percentage change (AAPC) and joinpoint regression.ResultsThe global age-standardized incidence of hepatitis B in children and adolescents decreased from 1385.20 per 100,000 population in 1990 to 418.68 per 100,000 population in 2021, with an AAPC of -3.76%. Similarly, age-standardized DALYs decreased from 70.78 per 100,000 population to 36.31 per 100,000 population, with an AAPC of -2.13%. The age-standardized prevalence (AAPC − 3.53%) and mortality (AAPC − 2.09%) of hepatitis B also decreased significantly. From 1990 to 2021, the age-standardized incidence and prevalence among males exhibited a higher trend compared to females, although both declined over time. These two indicators also decreased across all age subgroups, with consistently higher rates observed in the 15–19 age group compared to other age groups. The burden of hepatitis B demonstrated a notable reduction in countries with high-middle SDI, while it was highest in countries with low SDI. In 2021, Central sub-Saharan Africa and West sub-Saharan Africa reported the highest age-standardized incidence. For age-standardized DALYs, South Asia was the only region to experience an increase (AAPC 1.09%), while East Asia showed the largest decline (AAPC − 7.58%). Alcohol and drug use remained important risk factors for DALYs among people aged 15–19 years. Furthermore, the impact of drug use on disease burden was increasing, particularly in high-SDI countries.ConclusionsThe global burden and trends of hepatitis B decreased significantly in children and adolescents, exhibiting regional and national variations. Management of alcohol and drug use remains a major challenge for people aged 15–19 years.