Average Change Research Articles

Colorectal cancer mortality trend analysis in Montenegro from 1990 to 2018.

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the second leading cause of cancer-related death in Europe. This study aimed to investigate CRC mortality trends in Montenegro from 1990 to 2018 and critically review the impact of preventive activities on cancer suppression in this country. We used the national CRC mortality data categorized by sex and age. Mortality rates were age-standardized according to the World Standard Population. The trends were described using regression techniques. In the period from 1990 to 2018, there was a significant increase in CRC mortality (P < .05). The death rates and the number of deaths from CRC were constantly increasing for both the overall level and gender, with the mean annual percentage change for the rates respectively average annual percent change (95% confidence interval-CI): 2.6% (1.9-3.2), 2.6% (1.8-3.5); 2.3% (1.3-3.3), and for the number of cases, respectively: 4.2% (3.5-4.9), 4.3% (3.3-5.3), 4.3% (3.2-5.5). The most affected age groups were 65 to 74 years (33%), followed by those aged 75 to 84 years (25%) and the age group 55 to 64 (22%). In Montenegro, CRC mortality trends are increasing among both men and women over the age of 45. Additional research on the risk factors and mechanisms that contribute to the unfavorable trends in CRC mortality in Montenegro is necessary.

The effect of oral zinc sulfate supplementation on hospitalized infants with hyperbilirubinemia: a double-blind randomized clinical trial.

Previous investigations on the impact of oral zinc sulfate treatment on newborns' serum bilirubin levels have produced conflicting results. As a result, the goal of this clinical study was to evaluate how oral zinc sulfate affected the levels of serum bilirubin in term infants who were admitted to the neonatal intensive care unit. The study was conducted at the Neonatal Care Unit of Besat Hospital in Sanandaj, Kurdistan Province, as a double-blind randomized controlled trial. The participants included term infants (37-42weeks of gestation) who required phototherapy and were admitted to the neonatal intensive care unit. A total of 290 infants were enrolled and randomly divided into two groups. The intervention group received oral zinc sulfate supplementation at a dosage of 1mg/kg per day in addition to phototherapy, while the placebo group received an equivalent amount of placebo daily. Bilirubin measurements were obtained at the initiation of the intervention and subsequently every 24h until discharge. The collected data were analyzed using STATA software version 17. After the infants were randomly allocated to the zinc-sulfate and placebo groups, the study outcomes, including the average changes in bilirubin levels after intervention, the hours of phototherapy, and the number of days of hospitalization, were analyzed and compared for a total of 160 infants in the zinc sulfate group and 130 infants in the placebo group. The reduction in bilirubin levels in infants receiving zinc sulfate was (- 3.75 ± 0.19 CI 95% - 4.12, - 3.37) and for placebo group was (- 1.81 ± 0.15 CI 95% - 2.12, - 1.50) 24h after the intervention. Furthermore, 48 and 72h following the intervention, bilirubin levels in the intervention group demonstrated a more substantial decline. The zinc sulfate group had a shorter hospital stay (2.13 ± 0.04 vs. 2.83 ± 1.42) and required less phototherapy hours than the placebo group (6.21 ± 2.16 vs. 8.78 ± 1.40). Conclusions: Oral zinc sulfate supplementation in term neonates with hyperbilirubinemia decreased the level of bilirubin levels, duration of phototherapy, and hospital stay. Trial registration: IRCT, IRCT20220806055625N1. Study Registered 25 December 2022, http://irct.ir/trial/66,722 .

Intracameral Anaesthetic Mydriatic Versus Topical Mydriasis in Pediatric Cataract Surgery: A Randomized Control Study

To compare pupil dynamics after using premixed intracameral anesthetic mydriatic combination (ICAM) of phenylephrine (0.31%), tropicamide (0.02%), and lidocaine (1%) versus topical mydriatic (TM) drops consisting of tropicamide 0.8%, phenylephrine 5%, and cyclopentolate 0.5% in pediatric cataract surgery. Randomized, masked, fellow eye-controlled trial. Tertiary eye care facility. Children ≤12 years of age with bilateral cataracts planned for surgery. One eye was randomized to receive ICAM and the other eye (control) TM drops. Commercially available ICAM that was injected at the beginning of surgery or TM 3 times at an interval of 30 minutes, 1 hour before the scheduled time of surgery. The other treatment was administered for the second eye cataract surgery. Pupil dynamics at various points of surgery were studied by a masked observer. Sixty-three patients (126 eyes) were randomized to receive ICAM in 1 eye (group 1) or TM drops (group 2). The mean age of the children in the study was 15.7 ± 24.3 months (range 3 months to 5 years). Adequate mydriasis with a single injection was achieved in 93.5% of patients in group 1 and 88.8% of patients in group 2 without additional pharmacotherapy or intervention. The mean pupillary diameter increased from 1.78 mm to 5.1 mm after injection of 1 unit of ICAM and from 1.75 mm to 6.06 mm with TM drops (P < .0001). The maximum pupillary dilation achieved was 6.06 ± 1.17 mm in group 1 and 6.75 ± 1.07 mm in group 2 (P = .004). The average change in pupillary size from injection of drug until the end of surgery was positive in group 1 (0.75 ± 0.98 mm) and negative in group 2 (-0.3348 ± 2.57 mm), ie, there was a relative miosis in group 2 toward the end of surgery (P = .001). Topical drugs achieved a larger maximum pupil size compared with ICAM. However, ICAM provided adequate and stable mydriasis without the need for augmentation compared with topical drops in children undergoing cataract surgery.

Hospital case fatality and mortality related to Chagas disease in Brazil over two decades

ObjectiveTo analyse hospital case fatality and mortality related to Chagas disease (CD) in Brazil, 2000–2019.MethodThis is a mixed ecological study with spatial and temporal trends, based on national population data from the Brazilian Ministry of Health - hospital admissions (HA) and death certificates (DC). Records with CD as a primary or secondary cause of death in HA and/or as an underlying or associated cause of death in DC were evaluated. Temporal trends were analysed by Joinpoint regression and the spatial distribution of age- and gender-adjusted rates, spatial moving averages, and standardized morbidity ratios.ResultsThere were a total of 4,376 HA due to CD resulting in death in Brazil, with a hospital case fatality rate of 0.11/100,000 inhabitants. The Southeast region had the highest rate (63.9%, n = 2,796; 0.17/100,000 inhabitants). The general trend for this indicator in Brazil is upwards (average annual percentage change [AAPC] 7.5; 95% confidence interval [CI] 5.3 to 9.9), with increases in the North, Northeast and Southeast regions. During the same period 122,275 deaths from CD were registered in DC, with a mortality rate of 3.14/100,000 inhabitants. The highest risk of CD-related death was found among men (relative risk [RR] 1.27) and Afro-Brazilians (RR 1.63). There was a downward trend in CD mortality in the country (AAPC − 0.7%, 95%CI -0.9 to -0.5), with an increase in the Northeast region (AAPC 1.1%, 95%CI 0.6 to 1.6). Municipalities with a very high Brazilian Deprivation Index tended to show an increase in mortality (AAPC 2.1%, 95%CI 1.6 to 2.7), while the others showed a decrease.ConclusionHospital case fatality and mortality due to CD are a relevant public health problem in Brazil. Differences related to gender, ethnicity, and social vulnerability reinforce the need for comprehensive care, and to ensure equity in access to health in the country. Municipalities, states, and regions with indicators that reveal higher morbidity and mortality need to be prioritized.

The fate and behavior mechanism of antibiotic resistance genes in different-sized aerobic granular sludge under antibiotics pressure

Aerobic granular sludge (AGS) is a promising wastewater treatment technology. Studying the distribution of ARGs in different-sized AGS under antibiotic pressure is crucial for ARGs risk assessment and control technology development. Herein, the risk of intracellular ARGs (iARGs) in viable/dead bacteria within small (0–1 mm), moderate (1–2 mm), and big (2–3 mm) AGS (S/M/B-AGS) were clarified under tetracycline and sulfadiazine stress. Besides, the potential mechanism of ARGs enrichment differences in S/M/B-AGS was revealed. M−AGS had the lowest iARGs risk (30–60 days) in both viable (3.3E+08 copies/g-dw) and dead (6.7E+08 copies/g-dw) bacteria, averaging 29.8 % lower than B-AGS and 72.1 % lower than S-AGS, respectively. The average changes in abundance of the top 20 genera in S/M/B-AGS were 3.0 %, 2.6 %, and 2.9 % from day 30 to day 60, respectively. The complexity between ARGs and bacterial communities was highest in S-AGS, followed by B-AGS and M−AGS. Among the 19–20 identified hosts in S/M/B-AGS, only 11 hosts were shared. Extracellular polymeric substances (EPS) and protein, particularly those with α-helical structure, adsorbed antibiotics and envelop bacteria, enhancing mass transfer resistance and effectively reducing antibiotic stress on bacteria. M−AGS exhibited the highest contents of EPS and protein compared to S/B-AGS, potentially explaining the lowest iARGs risk observed. Overall, this study discovered the different behaviors of iARGs in viable/dead bacteria in S/M/B-AGS, offering a novel perspective on granular size modulation strategies to reduce ARGs risk.

Trends in transport injuries burden and risk factors among children under 14 years old in China: 1990–2019

BackgroundTransport injuries (TI) remains one of leading causes of death in children in China. This study aimed to analyze the temporal trend of disease burden and associated risk factors of TI among children aged 0–14 years in China, utilizing data from 1990 to 2019.MethodsWe retrieved data of disease burden and risk factors of TI among children aged 0–14 year in China from 1990 to 2019 from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) dataset. We estimated incidence rate, death rate, and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) rate with a 95% uncertainty interval (95% UI), stratified by age, sex, and all type-road users. Trends in disease burden with annual percentage changes (APC) and average annual percent change (AAPC) were performed by Joinpoint regression model.ResultsThe incidence rate (AAPC = 1.18%, P < 0.001) of TI among children aged 0–14 years showed an increasing trend, whereas mortality rate (AAPC = -3.87%, P < 0.001) and DALYs rate (AAPC = -3.83%, P < 0.001) decreased annually. Notably, boys experienced a higher increase in incidence (1.30%) compared to girls (1.06%), but a faster decrease in mortality and DALYs rate (-3.90% vs. -3.82%, -3.88% vs. -3.79%, respectively) (Pall < 0.001). Declines in death rates and DALYs rates were observed across all age groups (Pall < 0.001), while remained the highest among children aged 0–4 in 2019. Among different road-type users, cyclist road injuries were identified as the primary cause of TI (182.3 cases per 100,000) while pedestrians were the group with the highest mortality (2.9 cases per 100,000) and DALYs rate (243 cases per 100,000) in 2019. Besides, alcohol use was a significant risk factors for TI, while low temperature appeared to be a protective factor.ConclusionFuture efforts must prioritize raising awareness among children and their guardians to mitigate the disease burden of TI in children. It’s critical to enhance preventive interventions for boys, children aged 0–4 and vulnerable road users such as pedestrians and cyclists in future.

Secular Trends in Preterm Birth Rates: Uncovering the Primary Challenge for Perinatal Medicine in Greece.

Preterm labour is a serious pregnancy complication that is the primary cause of infant mortality, with detrimental impacts on the offspring and the mother in the short as well as the long term. This study aims to comprehensively present the time trends of national preterm birth rates (PBRs) in Greece. Official national data regarding live births in Greece were acquired from the Hellenic Statistical Authority, and the annual total PBRand rates for gestational age groups were computed per 100 total live births spanning from 1980 to 2022. Time trends were analyzed through joinpoint regression analysis, and annual percent changes (APC) and average annual percent change (AAPC) were calculated with a 95% confidence interval (95% CI). Following a steady decline from 4.66% in 1980 to a historic low of 2.77% in 1991 with an APC of -5.1 (-6.2 to -4.2), the PBR exhibited a dramatic increase during 1991-2011 with an APC of 7.3 (6.9 to 7.8). Subsequently, between 2011 and 2022, the rise in PBR was attenuated, showing a slight statistically non-significant upward trend (APC = 0.5, 95% CI: -0.6 to 1.5). This led to a historical high of 12.07% in 2018, 4.4 times higher than that in 1991, and eventually, the PBR reached 11.90% in 2022. From 1991 to 2022, there were sharper increases in the rates of moderate (32-33 weeks) and late (34-36 weeks) preterm births, with AAPCs of 4.9 (3.5-6.4) and 5.8 (5.3-6.3), respectively. In contrast, the rates of extremely (<28 weeks) and very (28-31 weeks) preterm births saw slower growth, with AAPCs of 2.2 (1.7-2.7) and 0.7 (0.5-1.0), respectively. The PBR in Greece more than quadrupled during 1991-2022, mainly due to increases in moderate and late preterm births. Although its rise has markedly decelerated since 2011, amidst the country's economic recession, the PBR is alarmingly higher than those in all other European and developed nations. More than one in nine neonates is born prematurely in the Greek population, posing challenges in implementing evidence-based prevention strategies and perinatal care.

A population-based study on incidence trends of small intestine cancer in the United States from 2000 to 2020.

Although rare, small intestine cancer is on the rise in the developed world. We aimed to investigate the incidence trends of small intestine cancer by sex, race/ethnicity, age, and histological subgroups in the United States (US) over 2000-2020. Also, we evaluated the COVID-19 impacts on the incidence trends of this cancer. Data were collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results 22 database. Both the average annual percent change (AAPC) and age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) were determined. The findings were expressed as counts and incidence rates adjusted for age per 100,000 people with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). A total of 67,815 cases of small intestine cancer across all age groups were reported in the US between 2000 and 2019. Neuroendocrine carcinoma was the most often reported subtype (54.26%). The age group of 55 to 69 years (38.08%), men (53.10%), and Non-Hispanic Whites (69.07%) accounted for the majority of cases. Over 2000-2019, the ASIRs for small intestine cancer among men and women were 2.61 (95% CI: 2.59-2.64) and 1.92 (95% CI: 1.89-1.94) per 100,000, indicating a significant increase of 2.01% and 2.12%, respectively. Non-Hispanic Black men had the highest ASIR (4.25 per 100,000). Also, those aged 80-84 age group had the highest ASIR. During COVID-19, the ASIR of small intestine cancer decreased by 8.94% (5.06-12.81%). Small intestine cancer incidence raised in all sexes and ethnicities. Following COVID-19, reported cases declined, possibly due to pandemic-related diagnostic challenges. The impact of underdiagnosis on patient survival needs further investigations.

Rates of ground reaction force development are associated with running speed during sprint acceleration

This study aimed to investigate the relationship between overground sprint performance and rates of force development (RFDs) in ground reaction forces (GRF) during the entire acceleration phase. Thirty-one male sprinters performed 60-m sprints during which the GRF from the start to the 50-m mark were measured. The vertical, braking and propulsive RFDs at each step were calculated as the average rate of change in GRF. Average values for each four steps during the acceleration phase were calculated to examine relationships between running speed or average horizontal external power (AHEP) and RFD values. The RFD values ranged from 859.8 ± 191.1 to 1682.0 ± 258.2 N/s/kg for vertical force, −502.6 ± 215.7 to −1033.8 ± 196.2 N/s/kg for braking force, and 97.2 ± 11.7 to 185.4 ± 32.3 N/s/kg for propulsive force. There were associations of running speed with vertical RFD at the 21st–24th step section (r = 0.385) and with propulsive RFD at the 1st–4th step section and from the 13th–16th to 21st–24th step sections (r = 0.386–0.559). Moreover, AHEP was correlated with vertical RFD from the 13th–16th to 21st–24th step sections (r = 0.442–0.523), with braking RFD at the 17th–20th and 21st–24th step sections (r = −0.423 and −0.448), and with propulsive RFD at every step section (r = 0.374–0.856). In conclusion, greater propulsive RFD throughout the acceleration phase, along with higher braking and vertical RFD during the later acceleration section, may indicate better sprint performance.

Uncovering sociodemographic disparities in temporal trends of osteoarthritis incidence and age-at-diagnosis, 2006-2019.

To describe sociodemographic disparities in temporal trends of incidence and age distributions of first registered osteoarthritis (OA) diagnosis in southern Sweden. We identified all Skåne residents aged 35+ who had lived in the region at any point during the period 2006-2019 with no previous OA diagnosis (ICD-10 codes M15-M19) for 8 years prior to inclusion in the study (n = 849,061). We calculated person-years from inclusion until OA diagnosis, death, emigration, or 31 December 2019, whichever occurred first. Combining sex (female, male), education (low, medium, high) and nativity (Swedish, immigrant), we created a variable with 12 strata. Average annual percent changes in age-standardized incidence rates were estimated using joinpoint regression. Changes in the median age-at-diagnosis (year of diagnosis minus birth year), weighted to the mid-2005 Swedish population, were explored. Cumulative age-standardized incidence rates ranged from 116 (95% CI: 111, 121) per 10,000 person-years for immigrant males with low education to 205 (95% CI: 200, 210) for immigrant females with medium education. The estimated average annual percent changes (ranging from 3.4% to 6.1%) were generally similar, with slightly greater variations among immigrants than Swedes. The weighted median age-at-diagnosis was higher for Swedes and low educated people. Immigrant females with low education were the only stratum with a reduction (3 years) in the weighted median age-at-diagnosis over time. Sociodemographic patterns in knee OA incidence were different from patterns for hip OA. There were few sociodemographic disparities in temporal trends of OA incidence and age-at-diagnosis, suggesting persistent sociodemographic disparities in OA burden in southern Sweden.

The global burden and trend of Clostridioides difficile and its association with world antibiotic consumption, 1990-2019.

To estimate the global trends and disease burden of Clostridioides difficile infection (CDI) and its correlation with worldwide antibiotic consumption. Clostridioides difficile infection and antibiotic consumption data were retrieved from the Global Burden of Disease 2019, ResistanceMap-AntibiocUse, Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Adverse Event Reporting System, and Global Antimicrobial Resistance and Use Surveillance System. Jointpoint regression and age-period-cohort model were developed to show the global trends and burden of CDI. Correlation tests were calculated to explore the relationship between CDI and antibiotics. Globally, CDI is the most significant one with a high-rocketing burden increase rate among 13 pathogens causing diarrheal deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). The age-standardised death rate (ASDR) increased from 0.19 in 1990 to 0.43 in 2019, in which the elderly and females are at higher risk. A rapid increase in ASDR in high to middle sociodemographic index (SDI) regions such as North America (average annual percentage change (AAPC) = 7.71%), Andean (AAPC = 7.82%), and Southern Latin America (AAPC = 11.08%) was identified. Antibiotic consumption has a significant positive correlation with CDI with different risk stratifications. The global burden of CDI has continuously increased for the past 30 years, especially in high to middle-SDI regions. World antibiotic consumption showed a strong positive correlation with CDI with different risk stratification. More effective prevention and control measures should be implemented in these critical regions, with a specific emphasis on vulnerable populations, to mitigate the spread of epidemics.

Three-dimensional deformity correction in adolescent idiopathic scoliosis patients: what are the benefits of hybrid apical sublaminar bands versus all-pedicle screws?

The amount of three-dimensional (3D) correction with apical sublaminar band (hybrid-SLB) technique has not been compared to all-pedicle screw instrumentation for adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) using detailed axial correction metrics or comparable rod types. Our purpose is to compare 3D improvement in AIS deformities following posterior spinal instrumentation and fusion (PSIF) with hybrid-SLB and segmental correction to all-pedicle screw correction. Patients ages 10-18 years with AIS who underwent PSIF between 2015 and 2022 and had preoperative and postoperative EOS imaging were included. Electronic medical records were reviewed for demographic, Lenke classification, operative technique, and 3D EOS data. Average changes in major and minor Cobb angle, axial rotation, thoracic kyphosis, and lumbar lordosis were compared. Ninety-five patients met inclusion criteria with 55 in the hybrid-SLB group (mean age 14.9 ± 1.9 years) and 40 in all-pedicle screw (mean age 14.7 ± 2.1 years). While all-pedicle screw demonstrated greater correction of major (45.7 ± 13.4 vs 37.9 ± 14.3 degrees; P = 0.008) and minor (28.7 ± 13.1 vs 17.8 ± 12.5 degrees; P = 0.001) Cobb angles, hybrid-SLB showed greater increase in T4-T12 kyphosis (13.3 ± 15.3 vs 5.6 ± 13.5 degrees; P = 0.01). Correction of T1-T12 kyphosis, axial rotation, and lumbar lordosis was similar between groups. 3D EOS analysis of AIS patients before and after PSIF revealed that all-pedicle screw constructs had greater overall coronal plane correction and hybrid-SLB had greater thoracic sagittal plane correction. Axial corrective abilities were similar. Hybrid-SLB may have advantages for correction of thoracic lordosis or hypokyphosis. Level of evidence: Level III, retrospective cohort study.

Spatiotemporal trends and geographic disparities in spatial accessibility to maternal and child health services in Nanning, China: impact of two-child policies

BackgroundChina’s family planning policies have experienced stages of one-child policy, partial two-child policy, and universal two-child policy. However, the impact of these policy shifts on the spatial accessibility to maternal and child health (MCH) services for women and children remains uncertain. This study aimed to evaluate the spatiotemporal trends and geographic disparities in spatial accessibility to MCH services in the context of two-child polices.MethodsThis study was conducted in Nanning prefecture, China, from 2013 to 2019. Data on the transportation networks, MCH institutes, the annual number of newborns, and the annual number of pregnant women in Nanning prefecture were collected. Gaussian two-step floating catchment area (Ga2SFCA) method was employed to measure the spatial accessibility to MCH services at county, township, and village levels. Temporal trends in spatial accessibility were analyzed using Joinpoint regression analysis. Geographic disparities in spatial accessibility were identified using geographic information system (GIS) mapping techniques.ResultsOverall, the spatial accessibility to MCH services showed an upward trend from 2013 to 2019 at county, town, and village levels, with the average annual percent change (AAPC) being 5.04, 4.73, and 5.39, respectively. Specifically, the spatial accessibility experienced a slight downward trend during the period of partial two-child policy for both parents only children (i.e., 2013–2014), a slight upward trend during the period of partial two-child policy for either parent only child (i.e., 2014–2016) and the early stages of universal two-child policy (i.e., 2016–2018), and a large upward trend in the later stages of universal two-child policy (i.e., 2018–2019). Spatial accessibility to MCH services gradually decreased from central urban areas to surrounding rural areas. Regions with low spatial accessibility were predominantly located in remote rural areas.ConclusionWith the gradual opening of the two-child policies, the spatial accessibility to MCH services for women and children has generally improved. However, significant geographic disparities have persisted throughout the stages of the two-child policies. Comprehensive measures should be considered to improve equity in MCH services for women and children.

Performance Evaluation of XBeach for Seawater-Aquifer Interaction Simulation in Swash Zone of Gravel Beach: An Attempt to Reduce the Phase Errors

ABSTRACT The swash zone and its processes are very important in a beach system due to their significant effects on beach hydrodynamics, morphodynamics and ecosystems, including beach flows, aquifers, and sediment transport. It is important to develop efficient numerical models to evaluate hydrodynamic-morphodynamic processes, particularly in the swash zone. XBeach is a numerical model for beach simulations. Despite substantial advances, XBeach remains yet to be further developed since it is inefficient in modeling interactions between the aquifer level and seawater. This study aimed to cope with XBeach phase errors in the aquifer (seawater-aquifer interaction) estimations leading to an inaccurate simulation of hydrodynamic-morphodynamic processes in the swash zone. The XBeach process was evaluated by developing a numerical algorithm to tackle this drawback. Six experimental tests were performed using the proposed and original XBeach models. The average morphological beach change errors of the proposed and original models were 5% and 10%, respectively. The groundwater head estimation error of the original model was 8% compare with less than 3% of the proposed model. The proposed XBeach model effectively handled the phase error of the original XBeach and stimulated the hydrodynamic and morphodynamic processes in the swash zone more accurately.

The global incidence and trends of three common flavivirus infections (Dengue, yellow fever, and Zika) from 2011 to 2021.

Flavivirus pose a continued threat to global health, yet their worldwide burden and trends remain poorly quantified. We aimed to evaluate the global, regional, and national incidence of three common flavivirus infections (Dengue, yellow fever, and Zika) from 2011 to 2021. Data on the number and rate of incidence for the three common flavivirus infection in 204 countries and territories were retrieved from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021. The estimated annual percent change (EAPC) was calculated to quantify the temporal trend during 2011-2016, 2016-2019, and 2019-2021, respectively. In 2021, an estimated 59,220,428 individuals were infected globally, comprising 58,964,185 cases of dengue, 86,509 cases of yellow fever, and 169,734 cases of Zika virus infection. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of the three common flavivirus infections increased by an annual average of 5.08% (95% CI 4.12 to 6.05) globally from 2011 to 2016, whereas decreased by an annual average of -8.37% (95% CI -12.46 to -4.08) per year between 2016 to 2019. The ASIR remained stable during 2019-2021, with an average change of 0.69% (95% CI -0.96 to 2.37) per year globally for the three common flavivirus infections. Regionally, the burden of the three common flavivirus infections was primarily concentrated in those regions with middle income, such as South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Tropical Latin America. Additionally, at the country level, there was an inverted "U" relationship between the SDI level and the ASI. Notably, an increase in the average age of infected cases has been observed worldwide, particularly in higher-income regions. Flavivirus infections are an expanding public health concern worldwide, with considerable regional and demographic variation in the incidence. Policymakers and healthcare providers must stay vigilant regarding the impact of COVID-19 and other environmental factors on the risk of flavivirus infection and be prepared for potential future outbreaks.

The impact of VEGF signalling pathway inhibitors and/or immune checkpoint inhibitors on kidney function over time: a single centre retrospective analysis

BackgroundDrugs targeting angiogenesis and immunotherapy have transformed outcomes in renal cancer but may contribute to progressive kidney disease.MethodsWe linked healthcare databases in the West of Scotland (spanning 2010–2020) to identify adults with renal cancer who received one or both classes of drugs. Over two years following initiation, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) slope was modelled using linear mixed-effects models. Additional renal outcomes used competing risk regression considering the competing risk of death.ResultsAmongst 357 adults (62.5% male; median age 63.0 years, IQI 55.0–71.0), there was no significant change in eGFR (annual eGFR change +1.03 mL/min/1.73 m²/year, 95%CI −1.64 to +3.70), nor in subgroups of patients who had nephrectomy, metastatic cancer or an eGFR < 60 mL/min/1.73 m² prior to systemic therapy. A ≥ 40% decline in eGFR occurred in 82 people (23.0%) within one year of starting systemic therapy and was associated with pre-existing diabetes (subhazard ratio 1.89, 95%CI 1.05–3.41).DiscussionAnti-angiogenic and immune therapy had no substantial impact on the average change in eGFR but people with diabetes are at higher risk of clinically significant renal events. With appropriate monitoring, more widespread use of these agents in patients with renal impairment may be warranted.

Impact of landscape pattern on habitat quality in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2000 to 2030

Recently, rapid economic development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt region in China and the growing problem of regional habitat quality have seriously threatened the process of biodiversity conservation in the Yangtze River Basin. Studying the impact of changes in landscape pattern indexes on habitat quality in the Yangtze River Economic Belt can provide policy insights for biodiversity conservation in the Yangtze River Basin. However, existing studies are still lacking in exploring the effects of changing landscape pattern indices on habitat quality under future scenarios. Based on the land use data of the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2000 to 2020, this study simulates the land use situation in 2030, and analyzes the landscape pattern indexes and habitat quality during the 30 years, to investigate the impact of landscape pattern indexes on habitat quality at global and local scales through various methods. The results show that landscape patterns were significantly affected by human activities and land use types, with the Yangtze River Economic Belt experiencing increased levels of land use and structural stabilization during the three decades (Shannon Diversity Index increased from 0.90 in 2000 to 0.94 in 2030), fragmentation of the landscape (Landscape fragmentation index increase from 0.094 in 2000 to 0.102 in 2030), and weakened connectivity (contagion index decrease from 48.213 in 2000 to 45.437 in 2030). The Habitat Quality has a large variation in spatial distribution at the county scale, with an average change in habitat quality of 1.04 % from 2000 to 2030, and an overall downward trend. There is a strong localized spatial autocorrelation between landscape pattern indices and habitat quality, with significant spatial heterogeneity and some form of variability at time scales. The results of this study help to further understand the eco-environmental problems of the Yangtze River Economic Belt, and provide theoretical references for the formulation of ecological environmental protection policies and ecological functional area planning.

National age-specific mortality trends for cervical and breast cancers in urban–rural areas of China from 2009 to 2021: a population-based analysis

BackgroundCervical and breast cancers are among the top 4 leading causes of cancer-related mortality in women. This study aimed to examine age-specific temporal trends in mortality for cervical and breast cancers in urban and rural areas of China from 2009 to 2021.MethodsAge-specific mortality data for cervical and breast cancers among Chinese women aged 20–84 years were obtained from China’s National Disease Surveillance Points system spanning the years 2009 to 2021. Negative binomial regression models were utilized to assess urban–rural differences in mortality rate ratios, while Joinpoint models with estimated average annual percent changes (AAPC) and slopes were employed to compare temporal trends and the acceleration of mortality rates within different age groups.ResultsFrom 2009 to 2021, there was a relative increase in age-specific mortality associated with the two cancers observed in rural areas compared with urban areas. A rising trend in the screening age of 35–64 [AAPC: 4.0%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.5–7.6%, P = 0.026] for cervical cancer was noted in rural areas, while a stable trend (AAPC: − 0.7%, 95% CI − 5.8 to 4.6%, P = 0.78) was observed in urban areas. As for breast cancer, a stable trend (AAPC: 0.3%, 95% CI − 0.3 to 0.9%, P = 0.28) was observed in rural areas compared to a decreasing trend (AAPC: − 2.7%, 95% CI − 4.6 to − 0.7%, P = 0.007) in urban areas. Urban–rural differences in mortality rates increased over time for cervical cancer but decreased for breast cancer. Mortality trends for both cervical and breast cancers showed an increase with age across 4 segments, with the most significant surge in mortality observed among the 35–54 age group across urban and rural areas, periods, and regions in China.ConclusionsSpecial attention should be given to women aged 35–54 years due to mortality trends and rural–urban disparities. Focusing on vulnerable age groups and addressing rural–urban differences in the delivery of cancer control programs can enhance resource efficiency and promote health equity.

Prediction of uniform temperature effect on rectangular hollow concrete pier based on measured temperature data

In order to accurately and easily predict the variation of the average temperature of the concrete rectangular hollow pier. Firstly, the temperature distribution of the concrete rectangular hollow pier of Changjiahe Special Bridge was observed for 212 days. Then, based on the observation data, the functional relationship between the average concrete hollow pier temperature and the outside air temperature, and the air temperature inside the hollow pier was studied. Finally, based on this functional relationship, a prediction model for the range of variation of the mean temperature of the hollow pier was given and verified. The results of the study show that: the change of external shade temperature can be regarded as the superposition of different cyclic changes and random changes; the change rule of the average temperature of the concrete hollow pier is the same as that of the air temperature, both presenting day-by-day cyclic and step changes; the linear correlation coefficients between the daily maximum and daily minimum average hollow pier temperature and the daily average air temperature are R = 0.980 and R = 0.973, respectively; the daily average air temperature, the daily average air temperature inside the pier and daily average hollow pier temperature are R = 0.980, R = 0.998; the daily variation of the average hollow pier temperature and the daily variation of the air temperature are approximately linear, with a correlation coefficient of R = 0.899; assuming that the average temperature of the concrete hollow pier is a folding change, based on the above relationship, a method of predicting the time-by-time average temperature of the concrete hollow piers is proposed, as well as two methods of predicting the average temperature of the test piers. Average temperature change range method. Comparing the predicted values with the measured values, it is found that the predicted values are in good agreement with the measured values.

Mineralocorticoid Receptor Antagonism Prevents Aortic Plaque Progression and Reduces Left Ventricular Mass and Fibrosis in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes and Chronic Kidney Disease: The MAGMA Trial.

Persistent mineralocorticoid receptor activation is a pathologic response in type 2 diabetes and chronic kidney disease. Whereas mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists are beneficial in reducing cardiovascular complications, direct mechanistic pathways for these effects in humans are lacking. The MAGMA trial (Mineralocorticoid Receptor Antagonism Clinical Evaluation in Atherosclerosis) was a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial in patients with high-risk type 2 diabetes with chronic kidney disease (not receiving dialysis) on maximum tolerated renin-angiotensin system blockade. The primary end point was change in thoracic aortic wall volume, expressed as absolute or percent value (ΔTWV or ΔPWV), using 3T magnetic resonance imaging at 12 months. Secondary end points were changes in left ventricle (LV) mass; LV fibrosis, measured as a change in myocardial native T1; and 24-hour ambulatory and central aortic blood pressures. Tertiary end points included plasma proteomic changes in 7596 plasma proteins using an aptamer-based assay. A total of 79 patients were randomized to placebo (n=42) or 25 mg of spironolactone daily (n=37). After a modified intent-to-treat, including available baseline data of study end points, patients who completed the trial protocol were included in the final analyses. At the 12-month follow-up, the average change in PWV was 7.1±10.7% in the placebo group and 0.87±10.0% in the spironolactone group (P=0.028), and ΔTWV was 1.2±1.7 cm3 in the placebo group and 0.037±1.9 cm3 in the spironolactone group (P=0.022). Change in LV mass was 3.1±8.4 g in the placebo group and -5.8±8.4 g in the spironolactone group (P=0.001). Changes in LV T1 values were significantly different between the placebo and spironolactone groups (26.0±41.9 ms in the placebo group versus a decrease of -10.1±36.3 ms in the spironolactone group; P=6.33×10-4). Mediation analysis revealed that the spironolactone effect on thoracic aortic wall volume and myocardial mass remained significant after adjustment for ambulatory and central blood pressures. Proteomic analysis revealed a dominant effect of spironolactone on pathways involving oxidative stress, inflammation, and leukocyte activation. Among patients with diabetes with moderate to severe chronic kidney disease at elevated cardiovascular risk, treatment with spironolactone prevented progression of aortic wall volume and resulted in regression of LV mass and favorable alterations in native T1, suggesting amelioration of left-ventricular fibrosis. URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT02169089.