Average Annual Surface Air Temperature Research Articles

A century-long tendency of change in surface air temperature on the territory of Ukraine

A century-long tendency of change in surface air temperature on the territory of Ukraine

Determining the breaking points of the trend in long-term changes of air temperature in Barentsburg (Svalbard)

Changes in the average annual surface air temperature (SAT) in Barentsburg (Svalbard) for the period 1899-2022 are considered. The SAT increases at an average rate of 0.34°C/10 years. The warming process is not continuous and consists of two periods of cooling and two periods of warming. Statistical methods have been used to establish the most probable position of the breaking points of the SAT trend: 1917, 1938, and 1968. The recent (“modern”) warming in the region began in the late 1960s, but since 1988, its intensity has doubled.

State of China's climate in 2022

China experienced a warm and dry climate in 2022. The average annual surface air temperature (SAT) was 10.51°C, which was the second highest since 1961. The annual average rainfall was 606.1 mm, which was the lowest since 2012. The seasonal SAT broke the record in spring, summer, and autumn, while the SAT in winter was slightly cooler. More rainfall was observed in winter and spring, but less in summer and autumn. During the flood season from May to September, rainfall was 11.9% less than normal, which was the third lowest since 1961. The spatial distribution of rainfall anomalies exhibited a wet/dry pattern in the north/south of central and eastern China. The onset of the rainy season was generally earlier but with significant differences in rainfall. More rainfall was observed in the pre-flood season in South China and the rainy season in North China and Northeast China. In contrast, less rainfall occurred in the Mei-yu season in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze and Huaihe River valleys, the southwestern rainy season, and the autumn rainy season in West China. In 2022, China's drought and flood disasters were stark, and heat waves were strong. Severe droughts occurred along the Yangtze River valley during summer and autumn, while heavy rainfall and flooding struck South China in the pre-flood season and Northeast China in June–July. A historically strongest summer heat wave occurred in central and eastern China, while drastic cooling prevailed in most of China at the end of November. Landfalling typhoons were extremely less frequent.摘要2022 年我国气候暖干特征明显, 年平均气温偏高 0.62℃, 位居1961年以来历史第二高; 年降水量偏少5%, 为2012 年以来最少, 冬春季降水偏多, 夏秋季降水偏少. 汛期(5–9 月)降水量偏少11.9%, 位居1961年以来第3少, 中东部降水距平呈“北多南少”分布. 雨季进程偏早, 雨量空间差异大, 华南前汛期, 华北雨季, 东北雨季降水量偏多, 而长江中下游和江淮梅雨降水偏少. 华南, 东北洪涝灾害重, 南方夏秋连旱严重, 中东部遭遇最强高温过程, 登录台风异常偏少.

Analysis and numerical simulation of temperature measurements made on earth and from space

The sum of all currently known facts confirms the existence of a global warming process. The development models of this process are statistical in nature and often do not take into account the specifics of local conditions. This fact confirms our analysis of measurements of the average annual surface air temperature during the period 1980–2019 in the city of Krasnodar (Russia). We used data from ground based (World Data Center) and space based (POWER project) measurements. A comparison of the data showed that the discrepancies in ground and space based measurements of surface air temperatures until 1990 do not exceed the data error (s=±0.7 °C). After 1990, the most significant short-term discrepancies were observed in 2014 (−1.12°С) and 2016 (1.33°С). An analysis of the forecast model of the Earth's surface air average annual temperature for 1918–2020 indicates a gradual decrease in the average annual temperature even in the presence of short-term impulses of its increase. The rate of decrease in the average annual temperature from ground based observations is slightly higher than from space based observations, which is probably due to a more complete consideration of local conditions in ground based observations.

Climate change and the activities of botanical gardens

Problems and prospects of botanical gardens in a changing climate are discussed in the article. An increase in the average annual surface air temperature, changes in seasonal indicators and the length of the growing season require action from botanical gardens. Decisions on the management of natural and man-made ecosystems, with the aim of their conservation and sustainable development, must be taken taking into account the ecological situation. The knowledge and experience concentrated in botanical gardens makes it possible to assess the threats and opportunities for climate change and develop adaptation measures to them. All activities of botanical gardens should be aimed at counteracting climate change, include preventive measures based on the expected plant responses and compensatory measures. Research work in all areas should take into account the situation with changing climatic parameters. Special attention should be paid to endemic rare and endangered species, historical landscapes, and changes in the assortment of resistant species, cultivation technologies, and biological invasions. Botanical gardens must be proactive by providing information, plant materials and technologies for national and global climate change adaptation programs.

Adaptive model of the impact of climate change on natural and economic systems of Kazakhstan

In the work, according to the scenarios of climatologists, it is shown that the absence of changes in the amount of precipitation and an increase in the average annual surface air temperature on land will contribute to aridization and desertification of the territory of Kazakhstan under conditions of global warming. In this regard, climatic desertification will contribute to the displacement of the zone of insufficient moisture and an increase in the zone of desert and semi-desert regions. A forecast of a decrease in the yield of grain crops in these conditions is presented, which is a threat to the environmental and food security of Kazakhstan. The aim of the research is to analyze the impact of climate change on agricultural production and the state of water resources in the Republic of Kazakhstan and to develop an adaptive model of the impact of climate change on natural and economic systems. The analysis of the state of water resources as the most vulnerable component for the country under changing climatic conditions is presented. It is shown that under these conditions, adaptation measures are carried out in the Republic aimed at reducing climatic risks and at deriving potential benefits from climate change. We have proposed an adaptive model of the impact of climate change on natural and economic systems, which is based on the methods of mathematical statistics and probabilistic analysis. The levels of adaptation are interpreted in accordance with the index: with an increase in the indicator, the degree of influence on natural and economic systems also increases. The model has a high potential for use in predicting climate change within geographically limited natural and economic systems. The proposed recommendations for adaptation to climate change can find application in the development of state programs for the management of natural and climatic risks.

Analysis of the Spatio-Temporal Variability of Air Temperature Near the Ground Surface in the Central Baltic Area from 2005 to 2019

In this study, we analyzed the changes in the average daily, monthly, seasonal, and annual surface air temperatures based on the temperature data obtained from seven stations (1 January 2005–31 December 2019; 15 years) belonging to the central Baltic area (Stockholm, Tallinn, Helsinki, Narva, Pärnu, Tartu, and Võru). The statistical analysis revealed that there was a strong correlation between the daily average surface air temperature of the studied cities (range: 0.95–0.99). We analyzed the frequency distribution of the average surface air temperatures in addition to the Kruskal–Wallis and Dunn’s tests (significance level of 0.05) to demonstrate that the difference in air temperatures between Narva, Tallinn, Tartu, and Stockholm are critical. The Welch’s t-test (significance level 0.05), used to study the differences in the average monthly air temperature of the cities in question, showed that the surface air temperatures in Stockholm do not differ from Tallinn air temperatures from May to August. However, the surface air temperatures of Narva were similar to those of Tallinn in September. According to our results, the trends in the changes of monthly average surface air temperatures have a certain course during the year (ranging from 1.8 °C (Stockholm) to 4.5 °C (Võru and Tartu) per decade in February). During the entire study period, in addition to February, the surface air temperature increased in all the studied cities in March, May, June, and December, and the surface air temperature did not increase in January or from July to October. During the study period, the average annual surface air temperature in the cities of the central Baltic area increased by 0.43 °C per decade. The results also confirm that the surface air temperature in the study area is changing differently in different cities. The acceleration of the surface air temperature is very alarming and requires a significant intensification of the measures taken to slow down the temperature rise.

ВИЗУАЛИЗАЦИЯ ПРИКЛАДНОЙ КЛИМАТИЧЕСКОЙ ИНФОРМАЦИИ ДЛЯ ПОЛЬЗОВАТЕЛЕЙ

Based on open source data various ways to visualize climate information on maps have been analyzed in terms of convenience for final users who are often not climate scientists. The variety of imaging methods as well as their main advantages and disadvantages are shown. On the examples of the constituent entities of three Federal districts (Central Northwestern and North Caucasian) versions of adding or replacing cartographic information are proposed with the help of diagrams to facilitate a comparison of indicators and perception of results. Several meteorological parameters have been analyzed in each constituent entity of the Russian Federation: average annual surface air temperature, average annual amount of precipitation and the difference between precipitation and evaporation, as well as cloud cover for the summer and winter seasons. Graphs of changes of this parameter for three periods of time (base 1981-2000, as well as 2041-2060 and 2080-2099 of the RCP8.5 scenario) successfully perform the function of comparing climate information for different constituent entities and regions for various years and show the variability more clearly than the source cards.

Antarctic Glacier Monitoring

Polar ice is an important component of the natural system, affecting global climate on large as well as small scale. The Antarctic ice sheet has undergone significant changes in the past and governed the earth’s climatic system. This ice sheet appears to have been very dynamic and yet, not much is known about the processes involved for this dynamism. Glaciological studies in parts of Central Donning Maud Land (cDML) of East Antarctica include monitoring the changes of Antarctic ice sheet overriding the Schirmacher Oasis, measurement of snow accumulation on the ice sheet, study of subsurface topography and ice sheet dynamics. In the last three decades, Dakshin Gangotri (DG) glacier snout, which is a part of East Antarctic Ice sheet (EAIS) overriding Schirmacher Oasis shows continuous recession. There are major peaks of recession in every five year cycle. The higher average annual surface air temperature leads to the greater recession in the next year. Interestingly, this recessional trend of DG snout does not show perfect correlation with the meteorological parameters (such as surface air temperature, ground temperature, wind speed, etc.) of this area. This all reflect towards the existence of very complex equation for the recession of ice sheet and snow and ice characterization in this part of Antarctica. The vector component of ice sheet shows differential movement all along the southern edge of Schirmacher Oasis. The average annual recession of snout has shown positive correlation with the mean annual runoff and negative correlation with annual mass balance of the area.

Variations in climatic and hydrological parameters in the Selenga River basin in the Russian Federation

The variations in average annual surface air temperature, precipitation, and runoff in the Selenga River basin (within Russia) are analyzed. It is demonstrated that the considerable increase in average annual temperature of surface air layers occurred in the 1980s-1990s. The decrease in peak water discharge in the rivers and the increase in the frequency of low-water periods were revealed in the forest-steppe and steppe zones of the Selenga River basin in 2001-2010. In the southwestern mountain regions (the Dzhida River basin) the river runoff increased during that period.

Long-term projection of main parameters of regional climate till the year 3000

The methods are considered to solve the problem of secure isolation of radioactive waste containing long-lived products of nuclear fuel processing with a half-life of tens of thousands years (plutonium etc.). The methodology of long-term projection of average annual surface air temperature and total precipitation is proposed. Taking into account the possible scenarios of the development of the global socioeconomic system, variations due to the anthropogenic impact in average annual temperature at the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes for the period till 2300 are estimated. Based on paleoclimatic data, projections of natural trends in global average annual temperature and total precipitation till the year 3000 are developed. Taking into account the anthropogenic component, the projective ranges of these climatic parameters in the Vyatka River basin in 2100-3000 are evaluated.

Does Global Warming Increase Establishment Rates of Invasive Alien Species? A Centurial Time Series Analysis

BackgroundThe establishment rate of invasive alien insect species has been increasing worldwide during the past century. This trend has been widely attributed to increased rates of international trade and associated species introductions, but rarely linked to environmental change. To better understand and manage the bioinvasion process, it is crucial to understand the relationship between global warming and establishment rate of invasive alien species, especially for poikilothermic invaders such as insects.Methodology/Principal FindingsWe present data that demonstrate a significant positive relationship between the change in average annual surface air temperature and the establishment rate of invasive alien insects in mainland China during 1900–2005. This relationship was modeled by regression analysis, and indicated that a 1°C increase in average annual surface temperature in mainland China was associated with an increase in the establishment rate of invasive alien insects of about 0.5 species year−1. The relationship between rising surface air temperature and increasing establishment rate remained significant even after accounting for increases in international trade during the period 1950–2005. Moreover, similar relationships were detected using additional data from the United Kingdom and the contiguous United States.Conclusions/SignificanceThese findings suggest that the perceived increase in establishments of invasive alien insects can be explained only in part by an increase in introduction rate or propagule pressure. Besides increasing propagule pressure, global warming is another driver that could favor worldwide bioinvasions. Our study highlights the need to consider global warming when designing strategies and policies to deal with bioinvasions.

Forecasting estimates of surface air temperature changes by the wavelet transformation method

Analysis of a series of average annual surface air temperature (SAT) shows that they consist of three major components: a long-term trend, a set of harmonic components, and anomalies whose characters are close to a random process. We propose to use wavelet transformation of the source series to set aside quasi-periodic fluctuations. In this case, the distribution of the transformation coefficients enables one to set aside fluctuations of various scales, both the ones that are almost harmonic and those characterized as nonstationary fluctuation process. Then, forward extrapolation is performed by wavelet transformation coefficients for the set-aside scales in view of their temporal dynamics. The series’ fluctuation component is restored by inverse wavelet transformation. The proposed approach is demonstrated by the example of average annual SAT series registered by stations in the towns of Syktyvkar and Tomsk with an instrumental observation period of more than 100 years.

Global Warming and the Greenland Ice Sheet

The Greenland coastal temperatures have followed the early 20th century global warm- ing trend. Since 1940, however, the Greenland coastal stations data have undergone predominantly a cooling trend. At the summit of the Greenland ice sheet the summer average temperature has decreased at the rate of 2.2 ◦ C per decade since the beginning of the measurements in 1987. This suggests that the Greenland ice sheet and coastal regions are not following the current global warming trend. A considerable and rapid warming over all of coastal Greenland occurred in the 1920s when the average annual surface air temperature rose between 2 and 4 ◦ C in less than ten years (at some stations the increase in winter temperature was as high as 6 ◦ C). This rapid warming, at a time when the change in anthropogenic production of greenhouse gases was well below the current level, suggests a high natural variability inthe regional climate. Highanticorrelations (r =− 0.84 to −0.93) between the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) index and Greenland temperature time series suggest a physical connection between these processes. Therefore, the future changes in the NAO and Northern Annular Mode may be of critical consequence to the future temperature forcing of the Greenland ice sheet melt rates.