Average Annual Rate Of Reduction Research Articles

The achievement of the carbon emissions peak in China: The role of energy consumption structure optimization

Optimizing the coal-dominated structure of energy consumption would effectively contribute toward ensuring that China's carbon emissions peak by 2030. To investigate whether this goal can be achieved through such optimization, the present study proposed a new economic-carbon emission-costs (ECC) multi-objective optimization model. Our findings show that the carbon emission peak will be achieved between 2025 and 2028, most likely in 2028, with 10.12 billion tonnes CO2. The peak of coal consumption was achieved in 2013 whereas the oil consumption cannot be peaked before 2035 in the GDP preference. In the process, China's GDP will be able to maintain an average annual growth rate of 5.9%–6.3% between 2017 and 2030, while the carbon emission average annual growth will be 0.5%–1.1%. The carbon intensity in 2030 can drop to 71.9% based on the 2005 level, which would exceed the committed reduction goal of carbon intensity equal to 60–65%. Furthermore, we find that the volume and time of the CO2 emission peak are not sensitive to renewable electricity price, but are sensitive to the assumptions both the minimum average annual growth rates of GDP and the average annual reduction rate of energy intensity.

Current Progress and Future Directions in the Double Burden of Malnutrition Among Women in South and Southeast Asian Countries

Background Upon agreement by member countries, the General Assembly of the United Nations defined a set of nutritional targets under Sustainable Development Goal 2 (SDG2) to eradicate all forms of global malnutrition by 2025. We examined trends and forecasts in malnutrition amongst women of reproductive age in South and Southeast Asian (SSA) countries, to evaluate progress towards achieving SDG2. Methods We applied Bayesian regression and multivariable multinomial logistic regression analysis to nationally representative, cross-sectional, Demographic and Health Survey data collected between 1996 and 2016 in eight SSA countries. Findings The overall pooled prevalence of underweight, overweight and obesity in the SSA region was 22.9%, 21.3% and 8.6% respectively. Regional average annual rate of reduction (AARR) of underweight and average annual rate of increase (AARI) of overweight were 1.3% and 8.4% respectively for the period 1996 to 2016. We estimated that the proportion of underweight and overweight will be 8.8% (95% CI: 3.9-19.9) and 66.0% (95% CI: 43.4-82.7) respectively in 2025 if current trends continue. We also found that by 2025 the prevalence of both underweight and overweight would be higher among rural women than urban, as well as higher among women with no education compared to those with a higher education. Interpretation Despite progress in reducing underweight, nearly two-thirds of women of reproductive age in SSA countries be either overweight or obese by 2025. This suggests that if left unchecked, many countries of this region will not be able to achieve SDG2. Funding: Institute of Social Science Research, University of Queensland, Australia. Declaration of Interest: All other authors declare no competing interests. Ethical Approval Statement: Ethical approval was given by ICF International (Calverton, MD, USA) institutional review board and by individual review boards within every participating country.

Seven-Year Running Effect Evaluation and Fate Analysis of Rain Gardens in Xi’an, Northwest China

Rain gardens have recently been studied as important low-impact development (LID) facilities that play a critical role in runoff volume reduction and pollutant purification. Approximately 16–40 rainfall events were monitored from March 2011 to October 2017 in order to determine the running effect of three rain gardens with respect to runoff volume reduction and pollutant purification. In particular, running fate analysis of rain gardens is the key focus in this study. Combined analyses revealed three key points. Firstly, performance assessment demonstrated that rain gardens effectively cut inflow volumes through the filter media; when the confluence area ratio was 6:1–20:1 (confluence ratio = roof area or road/garden area) and the rainfall was approximately 2.8–39.9 mm, the runoff volume reduction rate ranged from 9.8% to 100.0%. However, the average annual runoff reduction rate presented an initially increasing and then gradually decreasing trend with monitoring time. Secondly, according to water quality data in 54 rainfall events, the annual average concentration removal rate of NH4+-N was relatively good, but generally decreased with monitoring time. The concentration removal rate of NO3−-N and total phosphorus (TP) is unstable; however, the removal rate of total suspended solids (TSS) is better than that of total nitrogen (TN). Combined with runoff reduction, the pollutant load reduction by rain gardens is greater than 50%, although this decreases with increasing monitoring time. Thirdly, through the study of 7-year running effect on runoff reduction and pollutant purification, the “three-stage purification (TSP) concept” (periods of purification growth, stability, and attenuation) with respect to pollutant load reduction processes was finally proposed, and a curve chart was drawn for pollutant load reduction and rain garden operating fate (the “P–F” curve chart).

Stillbirth rates in 20 countries of Latin America: an ecological study

To describe country-level stillbirth rates and their change over time in Latin America, and to measure the association of stillbirth rates with socio-economic and health coverage indicators in the region. Ecological study. 20 countries of Latin America. Aggregated data from pregnant women with countries as units of analysis. We used stillbirth estimates, and socio-economic and healthcare coverage indicators reported from 2006 to 2016 from UNICEF, United Nations Development Programme and World Bank datasets. We calculated Spearman's correlation coefficients between stillbirths rates and socioeconomic and health coverage indicators. National estimates of stillbirth rates in each country. The estimated stillbirth rate for Latin America for 2015 was 8.1 per 1000 births (range 3.1-24.9). Seven Latin America countries had rates higher than 10 stillbirths per 1000 births. The average annual reduction rate for the region was 2% (range 0.1-3.8%), with the majority of Latin America countries ranging between 1.5 and 2.5%. National stillbirth rates were correlated to: women's schooling (rS = -0.7910), gross domestic product per capita (rS = -0.8226), fertility rate (rS = 0.6055), urban population (rS = -0.6316), and deliveries at health facilities (rS = -0.6454). Country-level estimated stillbirth rates in Latin America varied widely in 2015. The trend and magnitude of reduction in stillbirth rates between 2000 and 2015 was similar to the world average. Socio-economic and health coverage indicators were correlated to stillbirth rates in Latin America. Stillbirth rates decreased in Latin America but remain relatively high, with wide variations among countries.

Projection of population of stunted children under five years and anaemic women of reproductive age in thirteen low, upper and high income 100 million+ countries around the world up to 2050

Background: In 2012, the World Health Assembly Resolution 65.6 endorsed a comprehensive implementation plan on maternal, infant and young child nutrition, which specified a set of six global nutrition targets that by 2025. The goals were aimed at reducing stunting, anaemia, low birth weight, no increase in childhood overweight, increase rates of exclusive breastfeeding and reduce and maintain wasting. Out of these an average annual rate of reduction (AARR) of 3.9% for a 40% reduction in reduction in the number of children under five years of age who are stunted and an average annual rate of reduction of 5.2% has been estimated for a 50% reduction in anaemia among women of reproductive age.Methods: This paper uses demographic techniques to project the number of stunted children under five years and anaemic women for the thirteen 100 million plus countries as of UN population projections, 2017 of Philippines, Ethiopia, Japan, Mexico, Russian Federation, Bangladesh, Nigeria, Pakistan, Brazil, Indonesia, United States of America, India and China using average annual rate of reduction recommended in the world health assembly.Results: The number of stunted children under five years of age is estimated to be reduced by 27% by 2025, 40% by 2030 and 72% by 2050. The number of anaemic women of reproductive age is estimated to be reduced by 32% by 2025, 46% by 2030 and 85% by 2050.Conclusions: There is a dire need for accelerating the progress of reduction in stunting prevalence among children under five years and anaemia among women of reproductive age to achieve the global targets in selected high burden countries of India and Nigeria.

Variabilidad espacial y análisis multitemporal sobre los cambios en las coberturas de la tierra ocasionados por la expansión del cultivo de la palma de aceite en los años 1985, 2000 y 2016 en el municipio de San Carlos de Guaroa (Colombia)

El cultivo de palma de aceite ha transformado el ambiente debido a la demanda global de materias primas para biocombustibles, la política doméstica de sustitución de importaciones y el modelo de desarrollo agroindustrial. En este artículo se presentan los principales resultados de un ejercicio de análisis espacial multitemporal desarrollado para el municipio de San Carlos de Guaroa (departamento del Meta, Colombia) con el propósito de identificar y analizar las transiciones de uso del suelo durante los años 1985, 2000 y 2016. Se identificaron patrones de cambio en tres coberturas de suelo definidas: bosques de galería, cultivo de palma de aceite y áreas de uso agropecuario. Entre 1985-2016 el 19,38% de los bosques de galería desapareció (1.845,45 hectáreas), con una tasa anual de reducción estimada media de 3,22% (59,53 hectáreas) y en su mayoría fueron reemplazados por cultivos de palma de aceite. La expansión del cultivo de palma de aceite en este periodo fue estimada en un promedio de 1.312,56 hectáreas por año.

Dynamics of Land Cover Change from 2001 to 2013 in China

In order to explore spatial-temporal land cover dynamics in China, we use MODIS data from 2001 to 2013 to statistic the percent of land coverage change and analyze the spatial pattern of land cover change in each natural regions. The results show that: (1) From 2001 to 2013, forest, arable land and water are increasing, and annual growth rates are 1.81%, 0.66% and 0.36% respectively. Shrubs, grassland and unused land are decreasing, and the average annual reduction rates are 2.61%, 0.51% and 0.63%. (2)In A (humid, semi-humid region in Northeast), B (warm temperate humid, semi-humid region in North China) and E (temperate steppe in Inner Mongolia) regions, the major land cover change is from grassland to arable land; in C (subtropical humid region in South and central China) and D (Tropica humid l region in South China) regions, the major land cover change is from grassland to forest; in the F (temperate and warm temperate desert region in Northwest) and G (Tibetan Plateau) regions, the major land cover change is from unused land to grassland. (3) In the Northeast China, arable land area increased; in the Tibetan plateau and northwest arid region, the utilization of unused land area increased; in central and south China, forest increased.

The study on dynamic characteristics of soil erosion in Yuyao City of Zhejiang Province

Taking Yuyao city as the study area, using GIS technology to establish a database of soil ero-sion. Based on the database, soil erosion in the study area was Evaluated and the dynamic variation of soil erosion intensity was analyzed. The results showed that during the past ten years from 2004-2014, the overall situation of soil erosion in Yuyao city had improved, and the total area of soil erosion decreased year by year, with an average annual reduction rate of 3.3199 km2/a. But high intensity erosion area increased due to mining, quarrying, road building caused by. And some area had the evil trend, however the area was not large. In the process of the dynamic transition of erosion, the weakening area of erosion mainly came from the transition of slightly eroded area to non-apparently eroded area. the exacerbating erosion area mainly came from the transition of non-apparently eroded area to the slightly and moderately eroded area.

Early action on Paris Agreement allows for more time to change energy systems

The IMAGE integrated assessment model was used to develop a set of scenarios to evaluate the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) submitted by Parties under the Paris Agreement. The scenarios project emissions and energy system changes under (i) current policies, (ii) implementation of the NDCs, and (iii) various trajectories to a radiative forcing level of 2.8 W/m2 in 2100, which gives a probability of about two thirds to limit warming to below 2 °C. The scenarios show that a cost-optimal pathway from 2020 onwards towards 2.8 W/m2 leads to a global greenhouse gas emission level of 38 gigatonne CO2 equivalent (GtCO2eq) by 2030, equal to a reduction of 20% compared to the 2010 level. The NDCs are projected to lead to 2030 emission levels of 50 GtCO2eq, which is still an increase compared to the 2010 level. A scenario that achieves the 2.8 W/m2 forcing level in 2100 from the 2030 NDC level requires more rapid transitions after 2030 to meet the forcing target. It shows an annual reduction rate in greenhouse gas emissions of 4.7% between 2030 and 2050, rapidly phasing out unabated coal-fired power plant capacity, more rapid scale-up of low-carbon energy, and higher mitigation costs. A bridge scenario shows that enhancing the ambition level of NDCs before 2030 allows for a smoother energy system transition, with average annual emission reduction rates of 4.5% between 2030 and 2050, and more time to phase out coal capacity.

Evidence-based approaches to childhood stunting in low and middle income countries: a systematic review

ObjectiveWe systematically evaluated health and nutrition programmes to identify context-specific interventional packages that might help to prioritise the implementation of programmes for reducing stunting in low and middle income countries...

National and subnational all-cause and cause-specific child mortality in China, 1996-2015: a systematic analysis with implications for the Sustainable Development Goals.

SummaryBackgroundChina has achieved Millennium Development Goal 4 to reduce under-5 mortality rate by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015. In this study, we estimated the national and subnational levels and causes of child mortality in China annually from 1996 to 2015 to draw implications for achievement of the SDGs for China and other low-income and middle-income countries.MethodsIn this systematic analysis, we adjusted empirical data on levels and causes of child mortality collected in the China Maternal and Child Health Surveillance System to generate representative estimates at the national and subnational levels. In adjusting the data, we considered the sampling design and probability, applied smoothing techniques to produce stable trends, fitted livebirth and age-specific death estimates to natvional estimates produced by the UN for international comparison, and partitioned national estimates of infrequent causes produced by independent sources to the subnational level.FindingsBetween 1996 and 2015, the under-5 mortality rate in China declined from 50·8 per 1000 livebirths to 10·7 per 1000 livebirths, at an average annual rate of reduction of 8·2%. However, 181 600 children still died before their fifth birthday, with 93 400 (51·5%) deaths occurring in neonates. Great inequity exists in child mortality across regions and in urban versus rural areas. The leading causes of under-5 mortality in 2015 were congenital abnormalities (35 700 deaths, 95% uncertainty range [UR] 28 400–45 200), preterm birth complications (30 900 deaths, 24 200–40 800), and injuries (26 600 deaths, 21 000–33 400). Pneumonia contributed to a higher proportion of deaths in the western region of China than in the eastern and central regions, and injury was a main cause of death in rural areas. Variations in cause-of-death composition by age were also examined. The contribution of preterm birth complications to mortality decreased after the neonatal period; congenital abnormalities remained an important cause of mortality throughout infancy, whereas the contribution of injuries to mortality increased after the first year of life.InterpretationChina has achieved a rapid reduction in child mortality in 1996–2015. The decline has been widespread across regions, urban and rural areas, age groups, and cause-of-death categories, but great disparities remain. The western region and rural areas and especially western rural areas should receive most attention in improving child survival through enhanced policy and programmes in the Sustainable Development Goals era. Continued investment is crucial in primary and secondary prevention of deaths due to congenital abnormalities, preterm birth complications, and injuries nationally, and of deaths due to pneumonia in western rural areas. The study also has implications for improving child survival and civil registration and vital statistics in other low-income and middle-income countries.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Under-five Mortality in the World (1900-2015)

million child under age five died in 2015, 16 000 every day. Globally, under-five mortality rate has decreased by 53%, from an estimated rate of 91 deaths per 1000 live births in 1990 to 43 deaths per 1000 live births in 2015. The average annual rate of reduction in under-five mortality has accelerated from 1.8% a year over the period 1990-2000 to 3.9% for 2000-2015, but remains insufficient to reach Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG- 4). About 19 000 fewer children died every day in 2015 than in 1990, the baseline year for measuring progress. The biggest challenge remains in the period at or around birth. A massive 45% of under-five deaths occur in the neonatal period - the first 28 days of life. Prematurity, pneumonia, complications during labour and delivery, diarrhoea, sepsis, and malaria are leading causes of death for children under 5 years old. Nearly half of all under-five deaths are associated with under nutrition.

Rapid shift toward overweight from double burden of underweight and overweight among Bangladeshi women: a systematic review and pooled analysis.

Studies show there is a double burden of underweight and overweight in Bangladesh amidst a global background of increasing rates of overweight in low-income settings. The aim of this review was to determine the rates of change in the prevalence of underweight and of overweight among Bangladeshi women of reproductive age, to investigate whether there has been a shift from underweight to overweight in this population, and, if a shift was documented, to identify potential determinants. Data was obtained via electronic searches of the PubMed, CINAHL, and Embase databases. Studies and survey reports were eligible for inclusion if they provided data on the prevalence of underweight and of overweight among women of reproductive age as well as sociodemographic information. A meta-analysis was performed by reviewing data extracted from the included studies. Using data from 5 successive national demographic and health surveys, the average annual rates of change in underweight and in overweight were calculated, along with their associations with potential determinants. In Bangladesh, the prevalence of overweight exceeded that of underweight in 2014. A higher average annual rate of reduction of underweight was found among wealthier, highly educated, urban-living women, while a higher average annual rate of increase of overweight was found among poorer, uneducated, rural-living women. The shift in body mass index from underweight to overweight was most positively associated with urban residence, age, higher socioeconomic status, and higher education attainment.

Inequalities in maternal health care utilization in sub-Saharan African countries: a multiyear and multi-country analysis.

To assess social inequalities in the use of antenatal care (ANC), facility based delivery (FBD), and modern contraception (MC) in two contrasting groups of countries in sub-Saharan Africa divided based on their progress towards maternal mortality reduction. Six countries were included in this study. Three countries (Ethiopia, Madagascar, and Uganda) had <350 MMR in 2010 with >4.5% average annual reduction rate while another three (Cameroon, Zambia, and Zimbabwe) had >550 MMR in 2010 with only <1.5% average annual reduction rate. All of these countries had at least three rounds of Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) before 2012. We measured rate ratios and differences, as well as relative and absolute concentration indices in order to examine within-country geographical and wealth-based inequalities in the utilization of ANC, FBD, and MC. In the countries which have made sufficient progress (i.e. Ethiopia, Madagascar, and Uganda), ANC use increased by 8.7, 9.3 and 5.7 percent, respectively, while the utilization of FBD increased by 4.7, 0.7 and 20.2 percent, respectively, over the last decade. By contrast, utilization of these services either plateaued or decreased in countries which did not make progress towards reducing maternal mortality, with the exception of Cameroon. Utilization of MC increased in all six countries but remained very low, with a high of 40.5% in Zimbabwe and low of 16.1% in Cameroon as of 2011. In general, relative measures of inequalities were found to have declined overtime in countries making progress towards reducing maternal mortality. In countries with insufficient progress towards maternal mortality reduction, these indicators remained stagnant or increased. Absolute measures for geographical and wealth-based inequalities remained high invariably in all six countries. The increasing trend in the utilization of maternal care services was found to concur with a steady decline in maternal mortality. Relative inequality declined overtime in countries which made progress towards reducing maternal mortality.

The Study on Dynamic Change of Cultivated Land Resources and Driving Forces - A Study Case of Lixian County, Hebei Province

In this paper, Lixian County 2001-2010 dynamic changes of cultivated land resources were studied. Studies have shown that: the past 10 years the average annual reduction rate of 0.72% Lixian County arable land, and the reduction since 2002, much faster, In the spatial region, most dramatic change is more economically developed society Liwu Town, Dabaichi Town, Xinxing Town and Liushi Town. According to the statistical Yearbook 2001-2010 review, we select factor and use principal component analysis. The main driving factors of impacting Lixian County arable land resources change are economic factor, demographic factor and progress in agricultural technology factor.

The trade-offs between efficiency and quality in the hospital production: Some evidence from Shenzhen, China

This study aims to examine the trends of productivity, efficiency and quality changes of hospitals in Shenzhen city over the period 2006–2010 and explore whether there is a trade-off between efficiency and quality in the hospital production. A three-stage data envelopment analysis (DEA) based Malmquist productivity index is used to estimate the changes of productivity, efficiency and quality. The results show that both public and private hospitals have experienced a productivity growth and a negative evolution in efficiency and quality changes between 2006 and 2010. The average annual productivity growth rates of public and private hospitals are 4.1% and 2.8% respectively; the average annual reduction rates of efficiency are 1.8% and 1.2% respectively; the quality declines on average by 2.5% and 7.2% per year respectively. We may not rule out the existence of efficiency and quality trade-off in our study. This possible trade-off is mainly found in the small and medium-sized hospitals. Our results are robust when varying the specification of the DEA model.

Successes and challenges of under-five child mortality reduction in West Africa

Background: Under-five mortality rate is an important index for assessing achievements by countries and thus its targeted reduction is adopted as benchmark towards realizing the Millennium Development Goal number4 by 2015. With less than 24 months to the deadline, West Africa still contributes significantly to the global burden of child mortality, with over half of the deaths caused by infections.Objective: To review the successes and challenges of reducingunder-five mortality in West Africa.Sources: A search was made in Pub Med and Google Scholar using the key words: Under-five, Children, Mortality, West Africa, Successes, Progress, Achievements and Challenges. Relevant publications and reports availableat WHO, UNICEF and UN websites were also consulted. Tables and charts were drawn from relevant data for West African Countries obtained from these sources using Microsoft® Excel® for Mac 2011 Version 14.1.0(110310).Results: Although significant under-five death reductions have been recorded in countries of West Africa between 1990 and 2012, the reduction falls far short of the expected targets and infections still remain the leading causes of death. In spite of a fivefold rise of average annual rate of reduction of under-five deaths compared to a 3-fold rise of the global average and a 49.7% reduction in under-five mortality rate, the sub-region trails behind other parts of Africa. While only Liberia achieved the MDG 4 target, Niger, Cape Verde, Gambia, Guinea and Burkina Faso are on track. Nigeria’s huge child population, high under-five mortality burden and slow reduction, weighs down the sub-region’s averages. Neonatal death proportions are rising, with four countries ranking amongst the world’s top ten. With less than 24 months left, the likelihood of achieving the reduction targets for under-five mortality in most of the countries in the sub-region by the end of 2015 remains a mirage.Conclusion: Numerous daunting challenges have contributed to slow the pace of under-five death reduction in West Africa. Countries in the sub-region need to address their challenges while scaling up proven interventions to accelerate progress towards further reductions of under-five deaths.Key words: Children, under-five, mortality, West Africa, progress, successes, achievements, challenges

Trek to MDG 4: State of Indian States

To provide projections of progress towards the national and state specific MDG 4 using infant mortality rates (IMR) as the indicator. Infant mortality rates (IMR) of major Indian states for year 1990 were used as the base for evaluating their progress in child health. In the absence of any specific guidelines, the state specific target IMR was derived from the IMR:U5MR (under 5 mortality rate) of the countries whose current U5MR is between 11 and 47 per 1,000 live-births (range of target U5MR for Indian states). The projected IMR for year 2015 was then estimated by the average annual rate of reduction (AARR) from 2005 to 2012. Only a few major states-Karnataka, Maharashtra, Odisha, Punjab, and Tamil Nadu are likely to achieve their respective target IMR within the stipulated time (2015). The other major states, and India as a whole, are likely to miss the MDG 4. The two worst performers, Assam and West Bengal, are likely to achieve their respective targets by 2032 and 2022 respectively. Almost all the states have witnessed a significant progress since the advent of National Rural Health Mission (NRHM) in mid-2005-the AARR has almost doubled in the post-NRHM epoch for most states and India as a whole. The overall progress of most Indian states towards achieving MDG 4 is presently unsatisfactory. However, given the momentum gained since the commencement of NRHM, acceleration in child survival is quite possible in these states.

Impact of community-based mitanin programme on undernutrition in rural Chhattisgarh State, India.

Community health workers known as mitanins undertook family-level counseling and mobilized the community to improve coverage of maternal and child health services in the state of Chhattisgarh, India. The Nutrition Security Innovation (NSI) project was launched in selected blocks with additional inputs for promoting appropriate complementary feeding practices and disseminating information on Public Distribution System (PDS) entitlement. Within 3 years of project implementation, all NSI inputs in the project group (PG) were scaled up in the entire state. To study the impact of interventions on nutritional status in PG and non-NSI comparison group (CG) blocks. Quasi-experimental mixed methods were used. The sample consisted of 3,626 households with children under 3 years of age and 268 mitanins. A ratio of 1 mitanin per 250 to 500 population was effective. The coverage of exclusive breastfeeding, timely introduction of complementary feeding, DPT immunization, and antenatal care services was more than 70%. The PDS reached almost 90% of beneficiaries. In both the PG and the CG, one-third of children were undernourished, with one-quarter of children undernourished by 6 months of age. The prevalence of low birthweight was over 40%, and half of all women were undernourished. The estimated annual average reduction rate (AARR) for the entire state was estimated to be 4.22% for underweight and 5.64% for stunting. The strategy of Mitanin Programme in the Indian state of Chhattisgarh was unique with the implementation of direct nutrition actions being spearheaded by the health sector and community health volunteers in coordination with the Integrated Child Development Services (ICDS) and the Public Distribution System (PDS). The highest priority was given to interventions in the first 92 weeks of life. This implied ensuring frequent counseling and delivery of services through the entire pregnancy period and continued follow up till the children were at least one year of age. An accelerated decrease in the annual rate of reduction of underweight and stunting was observed. The emerging findings point to the significant contributions that can be made by the National Rural Health Mission (NRHM) in India by involvement of community health volunteers known as Accredited Social Health Activists (ASHAs) towards reducing the persistent problem of undernutrition in the country.

Under-five Mortality in Developing Countries: Will the Millennium Development Goal Be Achieved?

High levels of child mortality in the developing countries led the United Nations to include a significant reduction of under-five mortality rates among the eight Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) to be reached before 2015. In particular, the target of MDG 4 is to reduce the under-five mortality rates in every developing country by two thirds with respect to the levels reached in 1990. This article contributes to the debate on whether the target of MDG 4 will be reached by 2015; it also offers policy recommendations. We observe 110 countries defined by United Nations as “less” or “least” developed. The time-series-macro data used in the study come mainly from the United Nations “MDGInfo” database. Additional data come from WHO, UNICEF, UNDP and World Bank databases. The availability of a large amount of comparable data at the national level makes the quantitative cross-country approach particularly suitable for describing and comparing the intensity and main features of child mortality in different regions and countries. In our article, we: 1) provide an overview of the general context of developing countries; 2) analyze (using principal component analysis and cluster analysis) aspects of child mortality to highlight its different patterns and group together the considered countries in homogeneous clusters; 3) apply and update a methodology used by international agencies to monitor the outcomes obtained by each country in the reduction of child mortality and to estimate the chance each country has to reach MDG 4 (taking into account the trends shown since 1990); and 4) utilize linear regression models to identify the main social and economic determinants of the gaps that exist for each country in 2010 between the observed under-five mortality rates levels and those required to achieve the target. Our study shows that in 50 of 110 countries, mostly in sub-Saharan Africa, the average annual rate of reduction in under-five mortality rates observed so far will not be sufficient to meet MDG 4.