Average Annual Rate Of Increase Research Articles

Occupational Mobility in the Year 2000: Projections for American Men and Women

Occupational Mobility in the Year 2000: Projections for American Men and Women

Economic Growth and Popular Well-Being in Taiwan: a Time Series Examination of Some Preliminary Hypotheses

During the past several decades economic has been agonizingly slow for most poor countries in the world. According to World Bank (1988: 222-23) estimates, the average annual rate of increase in the GNP per capita of the low-income countries has been 0.5 percent during 1965-96 (excluding China and India, whose average has been 3.7 percent). This figure is 2.6 percent for the socalled middle-income countries, and 2.8 percent for the upper-middle income countries. Some countries (e.g., Ghana, Jamaica, Liberia, Madagascar, Niger, Zaire, Zambia) even suffered a net decline in real GNP per capita during this period, featuring negative rates ranging from 2.2 to 1.4 percent. Although a select few (e.g., Botswana, Brazil, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia) in the developing world have achieved rapid economic growth, this achievement has often failed to produce social equaity or mass well-being. While the average income of these countries has increased sharply, their median income has not risen nearly as fast. Thus, the income gains from economic have trickled down very slowly to the masses; they have instead gone largely to a small elite. Income distribution has become less equal as a consequence. The phenomenon of growth without development also characterizes countries such as Brazil, where rapid economic has not been accompanied by comparable improvements in the physical

Models of Invention and Enterprise: 150 Years of the American Patent System-Two Exhibits at the National Museum of American History, Washington, D.C.

patent system as we have it today. To commemorate that anniversary, the Smithsonian Institution's National Museum of American History (NMAH) mounted not one, but two, exhibitions, titled Invention and Enterprise and Pending: Models of Invention. One was confronted by Invention and Enterprise just inside the museum's Constitution Avenue entrance. From there one beheld, filling the entrance hall, nearly a dozen large, mysterious objects standing on three floodlighted platforms (fig. 1). The immediate effect of this sight was a quickening of curiosity which seemed to sweep one, willy-nilly, into the exhibit itself. The objects turned out to be various products of invention and enterprise-a McCormick reaper, a Blanchard-type wood-turning lathe, the vacuum pan used by Gail Borden to produce the first condensed milk in 1853, and others. Off to one side was a selection of finely crafted patent models from the period 1836-80, when applicants for patents were required to submit models to the Patent Office. This period could be called the Golden Age of patenting solely on the basis of its average annual rate of increase in patent applications, a rate which far surpassed that of any subsequent period of the same number of years.1 Although the models were presented as a group, the housing

The yield of durum wheats released in Mexico between 1960 and 1984

SummaryTwo trials designed to measure progress in the yield of durum wheat cultivars released in Mexico by the Institute Nacional de Investigaciones Agrícolas over the period 1960–84 were grown in the Yaqui Valley, Sonora, Mexico, during the 1983–4 and 1984–5 cropping seasons. The trials compared grain yield, above-ground biomass, harvest index (ratio of dry grain yield to dry above-ground biomass), yield components, grain-growth rates and phenological characters for eight key cultivars and the modern advanced line, Carcomun ‘S’, when grown at a high level of agronomic inputs and management.The grain yield of durum wheat was estimated to have risen for 25 years of breeding from 3·70 to 8·40 t/ha. The estimated average annual rates of increase in grain yield for the periods 1960–71 and 1971–85 were 251 and 121 kg/ha respectively. Grain yield improvements were based on a linear increase in the number of grains/m2 over the 25-year period, the result of more grains per spikelet. An improved above-ground biomass at maturity was a feature of the two modern genotypes, Altar 84 and Carcomun ‘S’. Harvest index increased with each new cultivar up to the release of Mexicali 75 in 1975, but thereafter the higher grain yields achieved with the modern genotypes were not associated with a higher harvest index. Thousand-grain weight remained steady for the released cultivars but fell slightly for the advanced line Carcomun ‘S’. Improvements in yield were not associated with a longer cropping cycle.It is concluded that a breeding strategy combining selection for morphological characters thought to confer high yield potential, such as a more erect leaf posture and high number of grains per spikelet, with selection for grain yield per se has been successful in improving the grain yield of durum wheats adapted to north-west Mexico. Improvements have come not only in the size of the grain sink and the efficiency of assimilate partition to grain but also in the biomass produced above ground.

On Several Problems in the Current Situation with Regard to the Requisition and Procurement of Agricultural and Sideline Products

Since the Third Plenum of the Eleventh Central Committee of the Communist Party, there has emerged in our country an unprecedentedly favorable situation of flourishing development in the area of agricultural production. In 1979-1981, gross agricultural output increased at an average annual rate of 5.6 percent, which is greatly in excess of the average annual increase rate of 4.3 percent for 1950-1978. In the wake of this development, there has also been a remarkable enhancement of the commodity rate of agricultural products. In 1979-1981, the national gross requisitioning and procurement amount of agricultural and sideline products increased at an average annual rate of 19.6 percent. Furthermore, the ratio of the amount of requisition and procurement of agricultural sideline products to the gross agricultural production value has consistently risen, from the 38.2 percent of 1978 to 45 percent in 1979, 51.7 percent in 1980, and 55.5 percent in 1981. These major annual increases in the requisition and procu...

Hospital Cost Inflation under State Rate-Setting Programs

Evaluations of the early phases of state efforts to control hospital costs led to discouraging conclusions about the effectiveness of such programs. To determine whether cost regulation has improved since then, we compared the experience of the six states that have comprehensive, legally mandated hospital rate-setting programs with that of the states without such programs during the period from 1970 to 1978. During the last three years of this period, the average annual rate of increase in hospital costs in rate-setting states has been 11.2 per cent, as compared with an average annual rate of increase of 14.3 per cent in states without such programs (P < 0.05). We conclude that much of the initial pessimism regarding the effectiveness of hospital rate-setting programs, based on studies that covered earlier reporting periods, may be unwarranted.

Need another international airport in Kyushu

1. How many passengers flew to and from Japan?In 1954, the number of travellers transported between Japan and the rest of the world was 115, 000. It increased to 3, 600, 000 in 1970. The average annual rate of increase during the 16 years was 20% or 10 per cent above the average of the world.The following six features are found in those passenger traffic:a. Japanese passengers grew in number very rapidlyb. Americans formed a large percentage of all foreigners —50% of allc. transit passengers accounted for a high percentage of all —30%d. most of the passengers flew on the routes connecting Japan with North America, Hawaii and the countries in Southeast Asiae. travellers for pleasure rose conspicuously in number year after yearf. Japanese travellers' originating points and foreign tourists' visiting places in Japan multiplied in number year by yearSince the volume of air traffic in the Tokyo and Osaka area had grown so much as to exceed their capacity, a new international airport was decided to be built at Narita in Chiba prefecture, and its construction has nearly been completed: the one for the Osaka-Kobe-Kyoto area is under consideration now.2. What percentage Kyushu accounts for?As in other areas in Japan, the majority of international travellers originating and arriving in the Kyushu district is now carried by plane, and Fukuoka airport in Fukuoka prefecture is Kyushu's main gateway for cultural exchange with foreign nations.The features in the flow of travellers accomodated by the airport are as follows:a. Japanese nationals predominate the touristsb. all the travellers fly either between Japan and Okinawa—now in Japanese possession—or between Japan and the Southeast Asian countriesc. number of the international passengers passed through Itatzuke accounts for only 3% of all the international passengers of JapanHow many international travellers in 1985?The volume of passenger traffic will grow, though it may rise and fall with business conditions, in the long run. The introduction of jumbo jets and SSTs is expected to encourage air travels. It is foreseen that, in 1985, the volume will reach 44, 700, 000 in number, and that the cargo traffic will reach 315, 000 metric tons: The number of Japanese tourists will rise further, and will command 57% of all: the visiting places of Japanese travellers in foreign countries and those of foreign travellers in Japan will be dispersed more widely than they are now.How many will fly to and from Kyushu in future?It is forecasted that Kyushu will form 4% of all Japan's international passengers in 1985, and that the Japanese will account for 60% of the Kyushu passengers: Fukuoka's volume of traffic will form 30% of all Kyushu's passengers: the number of travellers enplaning and deplaning in the Kyushu district will be 74, 000 in the year, excluding those who fly between Kyushu and the People's Republic of China, if the district remains to be directly connected solely with the Southeast Asian countries by airliner service.Does Kyushu need another international aerodrome?Though the above forecast of the passenger traffic seems to lead to the conclusion that there is no need for a new international airportin the district, the present writer firmly believes, for the following reasons, that it is absolutely necessary for Kyushu to have one. And as for its site, the writer wishes to locate it in Fukuoka prefecture, Saga prefecture or in the north of Kumamoto prefecture preferably.a. It was principally a very rapid growth in domestic passenger traffic that has caused the volume of air traffic in the two areas in Honshu or the Main Island to reach capability limit of the two airports.

Communism in Sarawak Today

The official end of Indonesia's campaign against Malaysia, marked by ceremonies in Djakarta on August 11, 1966, has focused attention on the present Communist insurgency in the East Malaysian state of Sarawak (an insurgency at one time openly backed by Indonesia) and on the future of Indonesian trained Sarawak Chinese dissidents, who form the backbone of that insurgency.' On June 4, 1966 the Malaysian Minister for Sarawak Affairs, Tan Sri Temenggung Jugah, warned that although the Indonesian military confrontation might be coming to an end, Communism in Sarawak would continue to pose a serious domestic threat, necessitating stringent measures.' '2 Indeed, Sarawak authorities are continuing preparations to meet a new Communist upsurge as hundreds of Sarawak Chinese rebels are crossing into the state now that Indonesia appears to have withdrawn its support of their activities. Repeated offers of amnesty and rehabilitation to the Chinese insurgents by the Malaysian government have had little effect. Although Indonesia has withdrawn most of its confrontation forces from the Sarawak-Indonesian border, the domestic instability in Indonesia and the continuing opposition expressed by President Sukarno and his political supporters to a precipitate end to the confrontation campaign, encourages some scepticism that a new corner in Indonesian-Malaysian relations has now been turned at last. Sarawak's Communist problem is the problem of the Chinese, and some background data on the latter community are essential. Over 244,000 of Sarawak's nearly 777,000 inhabitants are Chinese, about 80%7o of whom were born in Sarawak. The remainder have long been domiciled there, as Chinese immigration since World War II has been negligible.3 Other major population groups are Sea Dayaks or Ibans (241,000), Malays over (136,000), Land Dayaks (60,000), and Melanaus (45,000). The Chinese have a higher average annual rate of increase (about 3.5%o) than the Sarawak population as a whole (2.4%o). Moreover, the Chinese component is more youthful than the total population, as just over 50%o of the Chinese are under 15 years of age, compared to 44.5%o of the total population. Chinese

Technical Assistance of the American Enterprises to the Growth of the Soviet Union, 1929-1933

THIS paper endeavors to shed additional light on the extent and the strategic importance of the technological aid given by U. S. private enterprise to Soviet industry during its first Five-Year Plan, 1929-33. In recent years economists have increasingly recognized the importance of technological know-how in economic devel.opment. At the sametimeitisvery difficult to measure it quantitatively. Hence I have to be descriptive in hopes that students of Soviet economic development will be better able to understand the role of American technical. aid to Soviet growth. According to Western estimates the average annual rates of increase in Soviet industrial output during the period 192728-1932 were 10.6% for all industrial products, compared to 2.1% for the output of consumer goods, with the greatest growth registered by the production of machinery (28.2%), followed by electric power (26.3%), chemicals (24.9%), and building materials (17.7%). Ferrous metals scored only an average annual gain in production of 11% with fuels doing better at 15.6%.'

A Captive Elk Herd in Missouri

A captive herd of 103 elk was exterminated by hunting. The herd had increased from 10 elk to 103 elk after eight calving seasons. Sex and age ratios indicated some mortality. Average annual rate of increase was calculated to be 28 percent. The population density of 1 elk per 23 acres was very near the carrying capacity of the range. Acorns and grass were the most important foods in the fall diet. These data were collected during extermination of a captive herd of American elk (Cervus canadensis) confined on an ammunition storage depot known as Tyson in St. Louis County, Missouri. The storage depot covers 2,373 acres which are surrounded by an 8-foot-high chain-link fence. Oak-hickory forest cover the steep slopes and ridges which compose most of the area. There are only about 250 acres of grassy bottomland clearings. The original stocking of 10 elk (2 bulls and 8 cows) was obtained from Yellowstone National Park and released in the depot during February, 1951. The U. S. Defense Corporation, which administers the depot, contacted the Missouri Conservation Commission about management of the elk in February, 1958. An aerial survey in April, 1958, revealed 66 elk. A subsequent survey of range conditions showed very heavy utilization of available forage. Grass was available only in the bottomland clearings and was very closely grazed. Little forage was available under the closed canopy of the forest, and heavy browsing was evident on woody vegetation. A reduction of the herd was recommended. The Defense Corporation decided to eliminate the elk for safety reasons and because funds were not available for winter feeding, which would soon have become necessary. The writer expresses appreciation to F. L. Luke, Chief of Security, U. S. Defense Corporation, and H. Schwartz, Missouri Conservation Commission, for expediting collection of these data, and to Levi Mohler, Idaho Department of Fish and Game, and T. S. Baskett, Missouri Cooperative Wildlife Research Unit, for advice on the manu-

The Cycle in Japan's Balance of Payments, 1955-58

N TWO OCCASIONS during the decade of the 1950's Japan was faced with a conflict between continuing economic expansion and the maintenance of equilibrium in the balance of payments. The economy has expanded rapidly since 1950. During the period 1950-58, the average annual rate of increase in output was over 8 per cent. However, in 1954 the increase slowed down to less than half that rate, and in 1958 to about one fourth, primarily because of measures taken by the authorities to restrain the tempo of domestic expansion. In both years, these measures were necessitated by serious external payments difficulties. In 1953, Japan had an over-all balance of payments deficitl of $256 million, in contrast to an average annual surplus of about $300 million in 1951 and 1952. A surplus of $207 million in 1955 was more than halved in 1956, and in 1957 there was a deficit of $526 million (Table 1). To cope with the payments difficulties, the Japanese authorities adopted disinflationary financial programs. Helped also by other factors, the payments situation responded with remarkable promptness, both in 1954-55 and in 1958. An analysis of the improvement in Japan's payments position in 1954-55 was presented in Staff Papers, Vol. VI (1957-58), pages 143-69. In the present paper, the experience of subsequent years is reviewed, attention being focused on the mutual interactions between domestic economic fluctuations, budgetary and credit policies, and swings in the balance of payments. Important similarities and differences between the two episodes are indicated. The causes of the payments difficulties in 1957 are studied in Section I. The payments position began to deteriorate in 1956, when the surplus of the previous year was reduced, but it was only in early 1957 that a sharp draft on reserves occurred. In the spring of that year, the authorities took a series of measures to check the domestic economic expansion and to improve the balance of payments. These measures are outlined in Section II; the subsequent adjustments

Medical care costs in an extended inflation. A discussion of the development of the voluntary insurance mechanism, the medical care price index, inter-relationship of price indexes and quality changes, and the real cost of medical care.

Those who criticize the voluntary insurance mechanism in payment for health care because of rising costs of medical care prejudice the statement of an issue of considerable significance. There is much to be said for the hypothesis that the development of the voluntary insurance mechanism was brought about because of rising medical costs, not that the rise in medical costs was caused by the system developed. Despite such allegations by some critics 1 there is no evidence to support the position that the rise in medical care costs has been caused by the increase in health insurance coverage. 2 In fact, it has been pointed out that the average annual rate of increase in surgical fees was substantially greater for the period 1945 to 1950 than from 1950 to 1958, although the extent of health insurance coverage was greater during the latter period. 3 Such evidence does not support the