Average Annual Rate Of Decline Research Articles

Both incidence and prevalence of ischaemic heart disease are declining in parallel: a national data-linkage study in New Zealand (ANZACS-QI 52).

To examine trends in ischaemic heart disease (IHD) incidence and prevalence in New Zealand from 2005 to 2016, using comprehensive linked national hospitalization and mortality data as proxy measures of all significant events. Incident and prevalent cases of IHD in people aged ≥25 years were identified using individual patient-linkage of routinely collected ICD-10-coded hospitalization and mortality data. Incidence rates and prevalence proportions were calculated by sex and age group and then age-standardized to the 2016 New Zealand population. Ischaemic heart disease incidence and prevalence declined in men and women in all age groups. The average annual rate of decline in age-standardized IHD incidence was 3.3% for women and 2.7% for men, and the rate of decline in age-standardized IHD prevalence was 3.2% for women and 2.2% for men. Despite a 17% increase in the New Zealand population aged 25 years and over during the study period, the total number of people living with IHD also decreased, particularly in those aged 65 years and older. In contrast to observations from other countries, where IHD incidence but not IHD prevalence has been falling, declining IHD incidence in New Zealand in recent decades is now mirrored by declining IHD prevalence.

Analysis of Concentrations of Loans by Using Book Circulation Data in Korea University Library

In this paper, data of almost 8 million loans of books recorded for 15 years by the Korea University Library are analyzed by using big data analytic techniques. During this period, book circulation decreased with an average annual rate of decline of 4.4%. The use factor of books in each Dewey decimal classification (DDC) class was evaluated to measure how efficiently books were used by library users. Loan frequencies of books were analyzed and meaningful results regarding loan concentrations and the half-lives of books were obtained. It was observed that 50% of the total loans in each year were for 20% of all borrowed books in that year. This phenomenon will be called the 20/50 loan rule, and the set of the top 20% most borrowed books, whose cumulative loan frequencies reach 50% of total loans, will be called a core collection. The 20/50 loan rule shows the loan concentration of library books. The extent of loan concentration gets stronger if loans for two or more consecutive years are concerned. It was found that with high probability, books in a core collection at a specific year are also categorized as a core collection in next years. Moreover, books categorized as a core collection in consecutive years have longer half-lives compared with all other circulating books.

Phenotypic and molecular characteristics of CF patients carrying the I1234V mutation.

The Mutation I1234V is a CF causing mutation; however the mechanisms leading to loss of function are not fully understood. In this study, we aimed to characterize phenotypically individuals with the I1234V variant, and to gain a structural point of view of the mutant CFTR using computational studies. We conducted a retrospective descriptive study, reviewing the clinical records of 9 Israeli patients. The study was designed to include patients either homozygous or compound heterozygous for the I1234V mutation. For a comparison we analyzed clinical data of 12 patients homozygous for the F508del mutation. Computer models were constructed for I1234V, 1234-1239del and wild type CFTR. Mean FEV1 was 73.8±21% predicted with an average annual rate of decline of 1%. When compared to patients homozygous for F508del the mean annual values of FEV1% predicted during the 6 years of data collection ranged from 51 to 58±22-30 in the F508del group versus 76-82±14-19 in the I1234V group (p<0.05). Structural models did not demonstrate noticeable differences between the three simulated constructs. Although the mutation resides in the NBD2, no interference with ATP binding was detected. This study describes phenotypically patients carrying the I1234V mutation. Compared to patients homozygous for F508del, these patients present with more favorable outcome. Structural models show high similarity between the static and dynamics pictures obtained for both the mutated and the WT-CFTR; however this model does not explore the folding process and therefore may strengthen the notion of a misfolding mutation.

Study on the Spatio-temporal Differences of Water Pollution in Shandong Province from 2010 to 2017

Water is the source of life. Water is not only the main component of the body, but also many physiological functions. Water resources are the basic resources and basic conditions on which humans depend. This paper uses the data of Shandong Statistical Yearbook (2011-2019) and ArcGIS spatial analysis technology to study the spatial and temporal distribution pattern of water pollution in Shandong Province from the perspective of wastewater. The results show that the wastewater discharge from 2010 to 2017 shows an overall upward and downward trend. In 2015, compared with 2010, the wastewater discharge increased by a net increase of 113.158 million tons, with an average annual increase rate of 5.22%. In 2015, the amount of wastewater discharged was reduced by 50.346 million tons, with an average annual decline rate of 4.58%. From the time distribution characteristics of water pollution in Shandong Province, the wastewater discharge in Weifang, Qingdao, and Jining accounts for 29.20% of the province’s wastewater discharge. The water pollution in the central region is more serious, showing a heavy-light pollution distribution. At present, lightly polluted flower arrangement enclaves appear. From the perspective of the spatial distribution characteristics of water pollution in Shandong Province, the gaps between severe water pollution conditions in different cities have gone from increasing to decreasing. The water pollution situation in the province is obvious, the distribution of cold and hot spots is obvious, and Qingdao is a waste water discharge hot spot (Z = 2.24> 2.0), Weihai is a cold spot area for wastewater discharge (z = -1.11 <-1.0).

Establishment and Characteristics of an Artificial Ammonia Emissions Inventory in Jiangsu Province from 2013 to 2017

According to activity level data of various ammonia emission sources in Jiangsu Province, using a reasonable inventory calculation method and emission factor, an ammonia emission inventory in Jiangsu Province from 2013 to 2017 was established, and the trend of anthropogenic ammonia emissions over these years was analyzed. The distribution characteristics of anthropogenic ammonia emissions and emission intensity in Jiangsu Province were analyzed using ArcGIS software. The results showed that the ammonia emissions in Jiangsu Province decreased from 624.84 kt in 2013 to 562.47 kt in 2017 with an average annual rate of decline of approximately 2.6%. Agricultural has always been the most important source of ammonia emissions in Jiangsu Province and accounted for 82.4% of the total ammonia emissions in 2017. Laying hens are the largest source of ammonia emissions from livestock and poultry sources, accounting for 49.3% of the ammonia emissions from livestock and poultry. The average ammonia emission intensity in Jiangsu Province was 5.3 t·km-2 in 2017. Yancheng and Xuzhou are two cities with the largest anthropogenic ammonia emissions and emission intensity in Jiangsu Province. Zhenjiang City has the lowest ammonia emission and emission intensity.

P.261Consistent long-term effect of idebenone in reducing respiratory function decline in advanced patients with Duchenne muscular dystrophy

Two placebo-controlled trials of 52-week duration (Phase II DELPHI, Phase III DELOS) showed that idebenone consistently reduced respiratory function decline rate in patients with advanced DMD. Long-term data from the DELPHI-Extension (DELPHI-E) study and SYROS (DELOS patients who transitioned to idebenone under an Expanded Access Program) are now presented. The aim was to assess the consistency of the long-term effect of idebenone on respiratory function across both placebo-controlled trials and their respective long-term data collections. 11 DELPHI-E and 18 SYROS patients with abnormal (<80%) forced vital capacity (as percent predicted, FVC%p) were treated with idebenone for an average of 2.0 and 4.2 years respectively. Annualized FVC%p decline rates were compared to untreated patients from SYROS or matched external controls (matched for baseline FVC%p) from the CINRG Duchenne Natural History Study (CINRG-DNHS). Mean (SD) baseline age was 13.6 (2.3) and 13.3 (2.7) years in DELPHI (N=11) and DELOS (N=18), respectively, and FVC%p was 47.2% (19.7%) and 58.7% (17.6%). For the first 2-year period, where data were available for both studies, the average annual decline rate was comparable in treated patients (4.5% and 5.4% in DELPHI-E and SYROS) and lower than in untreated SYROS patients and external controls (7.9% untreated and 8.1% in CINRG-DNHS). During years 3-6, the annual decline rate was consistently lower than for matched controls. Treatment with idebenone resulted in a sustained reduction in the rate of decline in respiratory function across both placebo-controlled 52-week studies and across both long-term data collections, with follow-up time of up to 6 years. The consistency observed across 2 independent datasets adds to the robustness of the treatment effect of idebenone and its potential to modify the course of respiratory function decline in DMD.

P.001 Rate of cognitive decline in dementias in patients from rural and remote Saskatchewan

Background: To determine whether there is a difference in the average annual rate of decline in Mini Mental Status Examination (MMSE) scores between those with Alzheimer’s disease, vascular dementia, frontotemporal dementia and dementia with Lewy bodies. Methods: We conducted a retrospective chart review of 225 consecutive patients with dementia who attended the Rural and Remote Memory Clinic in Saskatoon, Saskatchewan. The data collected included MMSE scores and demographic information. Statistical analysis with ANOVA compared the average the annual rate of decline in MMSE score between patients with different types of dementia. Results: There was no statistically significant difference in the rate of MMSE score decline between these groups. Patients with frontotemporal dementia and vascular dementia were referred to the clinic at younger ages than those with Alzheimer’s disease and dementia with Lewy bodies. Conclusions: The rate of decline in MMSE did not differ between these four types of dementia. Patients with frontotemporal dementia and vascular dementia often experience cognitive decline earlier in life than those with Alzheimer’s disease and dementia with Lewy bodies.

China's carbon emission peak pre-2030: Exploring multi-scenario optimal low-carbon behaviors for China's regions

As the world's second-largest economy, China plays a pivotal role in global CO2 emission abatement. In this study, we used an IPAT model to design 48 peak CO2 emission scenarios. We used a centralized DEA to evaluate the allocative efficiency of scenario-based CO2 emission paths by maximizing the aggregated potential GDP under fixed emission quantities. We found that maintaining relatively high GDP growth (around 6%), reducing energy intensity by about 75% of average annual decline rate of 2005–2015 (around 4%), and increasing non-fossil energy to 21% to meet the Innovation plan of energy technology revolution 2016–2030 requirements is the most efficient low-carbon behaviors towards 2030 peak CO2 emissions of 10.57 Gt. We also found that China can potentially reduce CO2 emission intensity (CEI) by up to 72.7% compared to the 2005 level in 2030, and therefore that official CEI reduction targets (60–65%) are well within reach. CEI will not readily converge in future years due to the large differences in energy-saving and emission abatement potential across different regions in China; the rank of convergence is CO2>CO2 per capita > CEI. Hebei, Shandong, Shanxi, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang are key areas in whether or not their respective regions complete the emission reduction task. To this effect, these provinces merit special attention.

Epidemiological characteristics of acute respiratory viral infection and influenza in Russian Federation and Moscow

Аim: Give an epidemiological description of the incidence of acute respiratory viral infection and influenza in the Russian Federation and Moscow.Materials and methods: The form of the federal state statistical observation № 2 “Information on infectious and parasitic diseases” for 2007–2017. When analyzing the etiological structure of the agents of ARVI and influenza in Moscow, protocols were used for weekly laboratory tests of agents of ARVI and influenza conducted by the Center for Hygiene and Epidemiology in Moscow.Results: The epidemic process of ARVI in Russia is characterized by a stabilization of morbidity with an average annual growth rate of 0,4%, and Moscow has a moderate tendency to reduce morbidity with an average annual rate of decline of 2,3%. The highest incidence of ARVI is observed among children under 1 year, 1–2 years and 3–6 years. The greatest proportion in the structure of the incidence of ARVI is children under 17 years. Both for Russia and for Moscow, there is a pronounced tendency to reduce the incidence of influenza. In contrast to ARVI, the largest proportion of people with influenza in Russia and in Moscow are adults, but the highest incidence rates are registered among the children. The epidemic rise of the incidence of ARVI and influenza in Moscow starts 10–12 weeks earlier than in the Russia as a whole.Conclusion: For the epidemic of ARVI in Moscow and in Russia it is typical to involve children under 1 year, 1–2 years and 3–6 years. In Moscow in 2016 and 2017 there is a significant increase in the incidence of influenza among children under 1 year and 1–2 years. In contrast to the Russian Federation for Moscow among the causative agents of non-influenza etiology, dominated parainfluenza viruses (1–3 types) and adenoviruses.

Bootstrapping mean‐squared errors of robust small‐area estimators: Application to the method‐of‐payments surveys data

AbstractThis paper proposes a new bootstrap procedure for mean‐squared errors of robust small‐area estimators. We formally prove the asymptotic validity of the proposed bootstrap method and examine its finite‐sample performance through Monte Carlo simulations. The results show that our procedure performs well and competes with existing ones. We also provide an application to the estimation of the total volume and value of cash, debit card, and credit card transactions in Canada as well as in its provinces and subgroups of households. In particular, we found that there is a significant average annual decline rate of 3.1% in the volume of cash transactions and that this decline is relatively higher among high‐income households living in heavily populated provinces. Our bootstrap estimator also provides indicators of quality useful in selecting the best small‐area predictor among several alternatives in practice.

Injury-related mortality among children younger than 5 years in China during 2009–2016: an analysis from national surveillance system

BackgroundEpidemiology in injury-related mortality among children younger than 5 years was unreported in China recently.MethodsData were obtained from China’s Under 5 Child Mortality Surveillance System (U5CMSS) in 2009-2016. Injury-related mortality...

Has China’s coal consumption already peaked? A demand-side analysis based on hybrid prediction models

To deal simultaneously with the environmental problems caused by the current high-intensity exploitation and extensive use of coal resources, it is necessary to perform a scientific prediction of the trend and, especially, the peak of China’s coal demand. Based on the historical data on coal consumption and four primary factors (economic growth, energy structure, investment, and industrial structure) during the period of 1981–2015, this study established a hybrid model for coal demand prediction, using particle swarm optimization and cointegration methods. According to the prediction results combined with the actual statistics, in the business-as-usual scenario, China’s coal demand had peaked in 2014, then a downward trend started with an average annual decline rate of 5.85% for 2016 to 2020. However, future coal demand will keep increasing in the pessimism scenario. And in the optimism scenario, coal demand will decline much faster than the business-as-usual scenario. Sensitive analysis on four influential factors shows that coal demand is more sensitive to changes in investment and industrial structure, and more emphasis should be put on the supply and the demand side of coal industry.

Temporal-spatial analysis of bacillary dysentery in the Three Gorges Area of China, 2005-2016

Objective: To analyze the spatial and temporal distributions of bacillary dysentery in Chongqing, Yichang and Enshi (the Three Gorges Area) from 2005 to 2016, and provide evidence for the disease prevention and control. Methods: The incidence data of bacillary dysentery in the Three Gorges Area during this period were collected from National Notifiable Infectious Disease Reporting System. The spatial-temporal scan statistic was conducted with software SaTScan 9.4 and bacillary dysentery clusters were visualized with software ArcGIS 10.3. Results: A total of 126 196 cases were reported in the Three Gorges Area during 2005-2016, with an average incidence rate of 29.67/100 000. The overall incidence was in a downward trend, with an average annual decline rate of 4.74%. Cases occurred all the year round but with an obvious seasonal increase between May and October. Among the reported cases, 44.71% (56 421/126 196) were children under 5-year-old, the cases in children outside child care settings accounted for 41.93% (52 918/126 196) of the total. The incidence rates in districts of Yuzhong, Dadukou, Jiangbei, Shapingba, Jiulongpo, Nanan, Yubei, Chengkou of Chongqing and districts of Xiling and Wujiagang of Yichang city of Hubei province were high, ranging from 60.20/100 000 to 114.81/100 000. Spatial-temporal scan statistic for the spatial and temporal distributions of bacillary dysentery during this period revealed that the temporal distribution was during May-October, and there were 12 class Ⅰ clusters, 35 class Ⅱ clusters, and 9 clusters without statistical significance in counties with high incidence. All the class Ⅰ clusters were in urban area of Chongqing (Yuzhong, Dadukou, Jiangbei, Shapingba, Jiulongpo, Nanan, Beibei, Yubei, Banan) and surrounding counties, and the class Ⅱ clusters transformed from concentrated distribution to scattered distribution. Conclusions: Temporal and spatial cluster of bacillary dysentery incidence existed in the three gorges area during 2005-2016. It is necessary to strengthen the bacillary dysentery prevention and control in urban areas of Chongqing and Yichang.

National Trends in Admission and In-Hospital Mortality of Patients With Heart Failure in the United States (2001-2014).

BackgroundTo investigate heart failure (HF) hospitalization trends in the United States and change in trends after publication of management guidelines.Methods and ResultsUsing data from the National Inpatient Sample and the US Census Bureau, annual national estimates in HF admissions and in‐hospital mortality were estimated for years 2001 to 2014, during which an estimated 57.4 million HF‐associated admissions occurred. Rates (95% confidence intervals) of admissions and in‐hospital mortality among primary HF hospitalizations declined by an average annual rate of 3% (2.5%–3.5%) and 3.5% (2.9%–4.0%), respectively. Compared with 2001 to 2005, the average annual rate of decline in primary HF admissions was more in 2006 to 2009 (ie, 3.4% versus 1.1%; P=0.02). In 2010 to 2014, primary HF admission continued to decline by an average annual rate of 4.3% (95% confidence interval, 3.9%–5.1%), but this was not significantly different from 2006 to 2009 (P=0.14). In contrast, there was no further decline in in‐hospital mortality trend after the guideline‐release years. For hospitalizations with HF as the secondary diagnosis, there was an upward trend in admissions in 2001 to 2005. However, the trend began to decline in 2006 to 2009, with an average annual rate of 2.4% (95% confidence interval, 0.8%–4%). Meanwhile, there was a consistent decline in in‐hospital mortality by an average annual rate of 3.7% (95% confidence interval, 3.3%–4.2%) during the study period, but the decline was more in 2006 to 2009 compared with 2001 to 2005 (ie, 5.4% versus 3.4%; P<0.001). Beyond 2009, admission and in‐hospital mortality rates continued to decline, although this was not significantly better than the preceding interval.ConclusionsFrom 2001 to 2014, HF admission and in‐hospital mortality rates declined significantly in the United States; the greatest improvements coincided with the publication of the 2005 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association HF guidelines.

AGRICULTURAL SEED FINANCING: IMPLICATIONS FOR PRODUCTIVITY AND EXPORT EARNINGS FOR NIGERIA ECONOMY

Since the discovery of oil, there has been a drastic decline in agricultural exports as percentage of total exports declined from about 43% to slightly over 7% between 1970 and 1974, as a result of the oil price shocks of 1973 – 1974 which resulted in large receipts of foreign exchange earnings by Nigeria and the neglect of agriculture. There have been series of declines in agricultural export since the mid-1970s at an average annual decline rate of 17 percent and by 1996, agricultural export accounted for only 2 percent of total exports, hence, making Nigeria net importer of basic food stuff. With this continual decline, the agricultural sector no longer earns enough foreign exchange through exports. Hence, this study investigates implications of agricultural seed financing on increased productivity output and export earnings in Nigeria. The choice of research design employed in this study is the archival and documentary research strategy, associated with the deductive approach, which involved secondary data collection. The population comprised 16 years data on total annual financial expenditure on agricultural seed improvement, agricultural productivity output and export earnings from 2000 to 2015 (16 years). Secondary data on cumulative annual expenditure on seed financing (SIF), Agricultural productivity (AP) indicator and export earnings (EE) were employed. The findings revealed that, findings revealed that Seed improvement financing has a significant impact on increased Agricultural production output and that there is a significant relationship between Agricultural production output and increased export earnings in Nigeria. The study therefore recommended that, there is need for the government to increase funding for agricultural research and also access international grants, as this will help increase variety of high yield seeds and subsequently increase agricultural production output, which will increase agro related export earnings in Nigeria.

Can China achieve its CO2 emissions peak by 2030?

With the rapid development of the economy, China is suffering serious environmental problems due to the increase of CO2 emissions. As a responsible nation, China has employed a series of actions in response to the global plans on reducing emissions. This paper answers the question of whether China can achieve the CO2 emissions peak commitment by 2030. We develop an improved IPAT model to calculate the carbon intensity between 2005 and 2015. The national results show that the carbon intensity declines from 0.306 in 2005 to 0.129 in 2015 with an average annual decline rate of 8.28%, whereas the GDP enjoys a sustainable growth trend with an average annual growth rate of 13.79%. However, only when the decline rate of the carbon intensity is higher than the growth rate of the GDP, can China really achieve the CO2 emissions peak. The regional and provincial results demonstrate that Easter region with highest GDP has produced the most CO2 emissions in the past decade. Some underdeveloped western provinces experience higher carbon intensity, while other economically developed eastern provinces enjoy lower carbon intensity from 2005 to 2015. To further evaluate the probability of China reaching the peak, the grey model (GM (1, 1)) is employed to forecast future carbon intensity. It is proved that China will achieve the CO2 emissions peak if the GDP is lower than 151,426.15 billion Yuan by 2030. More efforts should be exerted in reducing CO2 emissions while coordinating the economic growth among different regions and provinces for China. Finally, we propose some suggestions to promote the realization of CO2 emissions peak as soon as possible.

Epidemiological features of leprosy in China from 2011 to 2015

Objective To analyze the epidemiological features of leprosy in China from 2011 to 2015, and to provide scientific evidences for prevention and treatment strategies. Methods An epidemiological analysis and a trend analysis were conducted based on the national leprosy surveillance data from 2011 to 2015. Results The leprosy detection rate in China decreased from 0.085 per 100 000 in 2011 to 0.049 per 100 000 in 2015, with an average annual decline rate being 12.9%. A total of 4 775 leprosy cases were newly detected during 2011—2015, including 106 (2.2%) children, 1 499 (31.4%) females, 518 (10.8%) floating people, 4 041 (84.6%) multibacillary cases and 1 134 (23.7%) cases with grade 2 disabilities. From 2011 to 2015, 328 relapsed cases were reported, including 153 (46.6%) cases recurring after combined chemotherapy. The prevalence rate of leprosy in China decreased from 0.407 per 100 000 in 2011 to 0.235 per 100 000 in 2015, with an average annual decline rate being 12.9%. By the end of 2015, there had been 3 230 registered leprosy cases and 124 counties with a prevalence rate above 1 per 100 000. Conclusions The detection rate and prevalence rate of leprosy in China were both decreasing continuously from 2011 to 2015. The high-epidemic provinces were Yunnan, Guizhou, Sichuan and Guangdong. However, leprosy control in middle-and low-epidemic provinces can not be ignored. Key words: Leprosy; Epidemiologic studies; China; Population characteristics; Prevalence

Epidemiological features of condyloma acuminatum in national sexually transmitted disease surveillance sites in China from 2008 to 2016.

Objective To investigate epidemiological features of condyloma acuminatum in China, and to provide scientific evidences for developing control strategies. Methods A descriptive epidemiological study was conducted to analyze personal, spatial and temporal distribution of condyloma acuminatum cases reported from 105 national sexually transmitted disease (STD) surveillance sites between 2008 and 2016. Results The reported incidence rate of condyloma acuminatum decreased from 29.47 per 100 000 in 2008 to 24.26 per 100 000 in 2016, with an average annual decline rate of 2.21%. There was marked variation in the reported incidence of condyloma acuminatum among different surveillance sites, with a range from < 1 per 100 000 to 207.36 per 100 000. The reported incidence was relatively high in the Zhujiang River Delta region, Yangtze River Delta region, Minjiang River region and some ethnic minority areas in western China, but low in northeast China, north China and central China. In addition, no cases were reported at a few sites in rural areas. The reported annual incidence rate was higher in females than in males from 2008 to 2010, but higher in males than in females from 2011 to 2016. The ratio of male to female cases increased from 0.97∶1 in 2008 to 1.11∶1 in 2016. Among all the age groups, the sexually active population aged 20-39 years showed high reported incidence of condyloma acuminatum, with the highest reported incidence observed in the group aged 25-29 years (range, 68.78/100 000-91.12/100 000) . Among all kinds of medical institutions, general hospitals had the largest number of reported cases of condyloma acuminatum (range, 60.44%-79.48%) , followed by specialized dermatovenereology hospitals, gynecology hospitals and maternal and child health (MCH) hospitals. Conclusions Overall, the incidence of condyloma acuminatum shows a stable or a slight downward trend with a high level in national STD surveillance sites, but is still on the rise in some low-epidemic surveillance sites. More attention should be paid to the prevention of condyloma acuminatum, and effective preventive measures are needed to be developed according to its epidemiological features. Key words: Condylomata acuminata; Sexually transmitted diseases; Epidemiology; Population surveillance; Incidence

Carbon reduction cost estimating of Chinese coal-fired power generation units: A perspective from national energy consumption standard

The coal-fired power sector is the main source of CO2 emissions in China. This paper proposes a carbon abatement cost estimate model based on computing the emissions gap between the Chinese national energy consumption standards of units (NECS) and the units' coal consumption for per unit electricity supply (CCES). By applying the proposed model, the abatement costs of four coal-fired power generation units (600 MW USC, 1000 MW USC, 265 MW IGCC, 600 MW SC CFB) with or without Carbon capture and storage (CCS) are estimated in six combined scenarios. The results show that (1) the units' total cost would increase more than one time after conducting CCS while the unit cost of carbon emissions abatement would decrease more than 64%; (2) the 1000 MW USC unit with CCS has the largest carbon reduction potential and the lowest unit abatement cost among all units in all scenarios; (3) 265 MW IGCC unit would have no carbon reduction potential after 25 service years, and its service years may be shortened; and (4) the 256 MW IGCC and 600 MW SC CFB is the most sensitive to the average annual decline rate of NECS but the four units of installed CCS are not.

Mortality risks in children aged 5-14 years in low-income and middle-income countries: a systematic empirical analysis.

Health priorities since the UN Millennium Declaration have focused strongly on children younger than 5 years. The health of older children (age 5-9 years) and younger adolescents (age 10-14 years) has been neglected until recently, especially in low-income and middle-income countries, and mortality measures for these age groups have often been derived from overly flexible models. We report global and regional empirical mortality estimates for children aged 5-14 years in low-income and middle-income countries, and compare them with ones from existing models. For this empirical analysis, we obtained birth-history data from surveys done over a 25-year period from 1986 by the Demographic and Health Surveys programme for 84 World Bank low-income and middle-income countries, and data about household deaths in China from their 1990 and 2010 censuses. We used these data to calculate mortality risks for children aged 5-14 years, and compare these risks to corresponding estimates of mortality in children younger than 5 years in the same countries. We used regression analysis to model these associations, generate estimates of the risks, and derive estimates of the numbers of deaths for 1990 and 2010 by applying those risks to population estimates from the UN World Population Prospects (WPP) 2012 Revision. We then compared the numbers of deaths with those given by the UN WPP itself and by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation's Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2010 study. The mean risk of a child dying at age 5-14 years in low-income and middle-income countries is about 19% of the risk of dying between birth and age 5 years (12% at age 5-9 plus 7% at age 10-14). According to our estimates, the total number of deaths at ages 5-14 years in low-income and middle-income regions fell from about 2·4 million (95% CI 1·9-2·7) in 1990 to about 1·5 million (1·2-1·8) in 2010. From our estimates we concluded there to have been 200,000 (16%) more deaths at ages 5-14 than in the UN report; however, our estimates exceeded GBD estimates by more than 700,000 (87%). The average annual rate of decline in mortality at age 5-9 years (about 3%) slightly exceeded that for ages 0-4 years (2·8%), but progress has been slower for age 10-14 years (about 2%). Our analysis suggests that mortality risks nowadays in the age range 5-14 years in low-income and middle-income countries are rather higher (relative to mortality in children younger than 5 years) than would be expected on the basis of historical evidence. Our findings broadly lend support for the UN WPP mortality estimates, but are almost double those underpinning GBD 2010. Global policy emphasis on reduction of mortality in children younger than 5 years should be broadened to include older children and adolescents. The Lancet Commission on Investing in Health and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.