Average Annual Loss Research Articles

Long-term performance evaluation of CO2 heat pump water heater under different discharge pressure control strategies

CO2 heat pump water heater has raised considerable attention as an environmentally efficient technology for hot water production. However, after long-term operation, the deterioration of component performance will not only directly cause system performance degradation, but also lead to a deviation of discharge pressure from the actual optimum under different discharge pressure control strategies, further resulting in additional performance loss. So far, the additional performance loss in the long run has not been in-depth investigated. In this study, based on a validated system model of CO2 heat pump water heater with component performance degradation factors, the long-term additional loss of system performance under eight different discharge pressure control strategies are compared. The results reveal that additional performance loss in the long-term operation can be significant under certain control strategy and working conditions. As for the investigated system, the control strategy with the parameter group of ambient and gas cooler outlet temperatures is favorable for application under the nominal operating condition with long-term degradation of heat exchangers, and the average additional loss of COP (coefficient of performance) can be decreased to 0.62%. As for the compressor degradation, the optimal refrigerant charge management strategy is preferred with an average COP loss as low as 0.05% under certain working conditions. In facing with year-round performance degradation, the control strategy with the parameter group of evaporating temperature and gas cooler outlet temperature shows better robustness, since the average additional annual performance loss can be reduced to only 2.52%.

Quantitative Evaluation and Characteristic Analysis of Resource Allocation Efficiency of the Energy Industry in the Yangtze River Economic Belt

The resource allocation efficiency of the energy industry in the Yangtze River economic belt is related to the green and high-quality development of the region. This study constructed a quantitative model which modified from the traditional HK model to evaluate the efficiency of energy industry resource allocation. This paper makes a quantitative evaluation of the efficiency of inter-industrial and inter-regional resource allocation of the energy industry in the Yangtze River economic belt from 2000 to 2019. The results show that: the average annual loss of total factor productivity of the energy industry in the Yangtze River economic belt is as high as 25.11% due to the misallocation of resources among the energy industries, capital misallocation, labor misallocation, and intermediate input misallocation were 12.32%, 7.08%, and 5.08%, respectively. The misallocation of resources among the energy industries of the provinces in upper, middle, and lower reaches is gradually increasing in turn. The average annual loss of total factor productivity (TFP) in the energy industry of the Yangtze River economic belt is 6.5% due to the misallocation of resources between regions. Capital misallocation, labor misallocation, and intermediate input misallocation were 2.48%, 3.40%, and 0.63%, respectively. In the upper, middle, and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, the labor force, capital, and intermediate input of each province’s energy industry were misallocated to a different extent. According to the trend of resource input in the energy industry of various provinces and cities, the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River also show different characteristics.

The distribution and direct impacts of marine debris on the commercial shrimping industry

Commercial shrimpers frequently encounter marine debris in their nets, resulting in economic impacts. Currently, no information existed on the spatial and temporal distribution of marine debris that shrimpers encounter and the subsequent economic impact on commercial shrimping. Twenty commercial shrimpers participated in a comprehensive data collection program (July 2020 through December 2020) within the north-central Gulf of Mexico, USA to characterize the quantity and impacts of marine debris. Derelict crab traps were an overwhelming issue for shrimpers. The type of fishing gear used influenced the type of marine debris encountered and the subsequent economic impacts. Surveyed shrimpers encountered marine debris on 19 % of tows and lost an average of 18.21 min, 7.88 kg of catch, and $6.37 in gear damage per tow with encounters, resulting in average annual losses of $6601 per shrimper. The results of this study show that marine debris encounters can have a large impact on the commercial shrimping industry.

Population Status of Gelada and its Conflict with Human Around Debre Berhan, Ethiopia

Theropithecus gelada is species, endemic to Ethiopia, mainly in the northern part of the Ethiopian plateau. Despite the relatively long-term research effort on the population and behavioral ecology of geladas, and its conflict with humans in protected areas, these data are lacking in unprotected areas. Accordingly, this study was conducted to determine population status and assess human-gelada conflict around Debre Berhan town from November 2013 to April 2014. The total count method was adopted to assess population status. Data on human-gelada conflict were collected based on a direct questionnaire survey. A total of 438 geladas were counted during the study period. The number of females was significantly higher than the number of males (χ 2 =45.48, df =1, P < 0.05) with a ratio of 1:2.3 male to females. The mean group size of gelada was 43. 57.7% of respondents had negative attitude towards geladas, whereas 30.0% and 12.3% had negative and neutral attitudes, respectively. The average annual crop loss by gelada was 2 quintal per household. The trend of crop damage by geladas is increasing significantly in the study site during the last ten years (χ2 = 44.47, df = 2, P < 0.05). The study helps future conservation of species in unprotected areas in the vicinity of agricultural lands.

Soybean disease identification using original field images and transfer learning with convolutional neural networks

Meeting the growing demand for soybeans will require increased production. One approach would be to reduce yield loss from plant diseases. In the U.S., soybean diseases account for approximately 8–25% of average annual yield loss. Early and accurate detection of pathogens is key for effective disease management strategies and can help to minimize pesticide usage and thus boost overall productivity. Recent advancements in computer vision could move us towards that goal by making disease diagnostics expertise more readily accessible to every-one. To that end, we developed an automated classifier of digital images of soybean diseases, based on convolutional neural networks (CNN). For model training and validation, we acquired more than 9,500 original soybean images, representing eight distinct disease and deficiency classes: (1) healthy/asymptomatic, (2) bacterial blight, (3) Cercospora leaf blight, (4) downy mildew, (5) frogeye leaf spot, (6) soybean rust, (7) target spot, and (8) potassium deficiency. To make training more efficient we experimented with a variety of approaches to transfer learning, data engineering, and data augmentation. Our best performing model was based on the DenseNet201 architecture. After training from scratch, it achieved an overall testing accuracy of 96.8%. Experimenting with full or partial freezing of core DenseNet201 model weights did not improve performance. Neither did a deliberate effort to increase the diversity of subject backgrounds in the digital images. Models performed best when trained on datasets composed exclusively of images of soybean leaves still attached to the plant in the field; conversely, mixing in images of detached leaves on simple backgrounds reduced performance. On the other hand, data augmentation to increase representational parity across disease classes provided a substantial performance boost. Our development experience may provide useful insights for researchers considering how to best build and analyze datasets for similar applications.

Emission and co2 sequestration from land use and land cover change according to spatial planning in banyuasin regency, province of south sumatra

The aim of this study was to determine the carbon balance, emission, and CO2 sequestration due to land use and land cover change in Banyuasin Regency from 2004-2014. The methods applied in this study included determination of carbon balance using the matrix of land use change and land cover change, calculation of carbon for each carbon pool by allometric and destructive sampling method, calculation of organic C through the method of Walkley and Black, and method of stock difference for analyzing carbon stock change, CO2 emission and sequestration. Result of this study showed that carbon balance in Banyuasin Regency from 2004-2014 was negative with carbon loss of 22.033.277 tons and average annual carbon loss of 2.203.327 ton. Moreover, CO2 sequestration, emission, and net emission reached 29.298.966 tons, 118.044.141 tons, and 88.745.175 tons, respectively. Average net emission of CO2 from carbon pool of above-ground, necromass, litter, and below-ground was 7 tons ha-1 year-1, while CO2 emission from organic C in soil was 0,61 ton ha-1 year-1. It is expected that changes in peat swamp forest, secondary mangrove forest, primary mangrove forest, and secondary peat swamp forest majorly contributed to CO2 emission in Banyuasin Regency.

Integrated seismic risk assessment in Nepal

Abstract. Seismic risk analysis is necessary to mitigate the potential losses resulting from future earthquakes and supplement scientific risk management. In order to assist systematic evaluation and management of risk, it is indispensable to interpret risk in terms of social and economic consequences due to hazardous events like earthquakes. There is an interrelationship between hazards, physical risk, and the social characteristics of populations. Therefore, based on the existing studies focusing on each of these aspects, this paper presents the integrated seismic risk assessment along the subdivisional administrative units of Nepal using 2011 census data. The administrative unit “provinces” are subdivided into districts and each district into municipalities and village development committees (VDCs). The districts, municipalities, and VDCs were considered as our study units. In this paper, the physical or seismic risk was evaluated from the exposure model, hazard curves, and the vulnerability model of the country, whereas the social vulnerability was assessed using social vulnerability index (SoVI) methods. To formulate the physical risk, the assets used were five types of buildings under the exposure model. This model was combined with the physical vulnerability functions of the building and the hazard curves of the country. The result of the physical risk has been presented as annual average loss (AAL). Similarly, among 92 social vulnerability variables, 54 variables were reduced to 7 weighted parameters using principal component analysis (PCA). The scores of a total of 45 parameters were used to evaluate the SoVI index, which was further combined with the physical risk to evaluate integrated risk. The results showed that populated cities like Kathmandu, Hetauda, and Janakpur have a highly integrated risk index. Similarly, the Terai region bordering its neighbor India and some parts of the central hilly region are highly vulnerable, while most parts of the mountainous region in the central and eastern regions are the least vulnerable. The results from the present study can be utilized as a part of a comprehensive risk management framework at the district level to recuperate and recover from earthquakes.

Evaluating the influences of urban expansion on multiple ecosystem services in drylands

ContextEffectively estimating the influences of urban expansion on multiple ecosystem services (ESs) is of great importance for improving urban planning in drylands. However, there are some shortcomings in the existing urban expansion models, which lead to great uncertainties in the assessment of the influences of urban expansion on multiple ESs.ObjectivesThis study sought to effectively estimate the influences of urban expansion on multiple ESs in drylands.MethodsWe combined the land use scenario dynamics-urban model and ES models to estimate the influences of urban expansion on habitat quality, food production, water retention, air quality regulation, sand fixation, and aesthetics.ResultsThe results showed that (1) our method can effectively evaluate the influences of urban expansion on multiple ESs in drylands, and the accuracy increased by more than 20% on average. (2) Under the impacts of future urban expansion, the annual average loss per unit area of habitat quality, food production, water retention, air quality regulation, sand fixation, and aesthetics will increase. (3) Future urban expansion will occupy more cropland and grassland, which will be the main reason for the intensified degradation of multiple ESs.ConclusionsWe suggest that the local government should focus on protecting key ecosystems, especially grasslands, from urban expansion to mitigate the potential influences on multiple ESs in drylands.

The seasonality of nitrate and phosphorus leaching from manure and chemical fertilizer added to a chernozemic soil in Canada.

Identifying seasons sensitive to nutrient losses could help farmers and policymakers to formulate effective nutrient loss reduction strategies. This long-term study monitored water percolation as well as nitrate (NO3 -N) and total phosphorus (TP) leaching from liquid swine manure and chemical fertilizer applied to intact core lysimeters in a sandy loam soil in Manitoba, Canada. Water percolation, NO3 -N, and TP leaching were monitored from 2005 to 2016. Chemical fertilizer showed greater average annual mean water percolation (p=.01), annual flow-weighted mean concentration (FWMC) of NO3 -N (22mg L-1 ; p<.001), and annual NO3 -N leaching (36kg N ha-1 ; p=.002) compared with the manure treatment (FWMC NO3 -N, 15mg L-1 ; NO3 -N leaching load, 22kg N ha-1 ). Average annual mean TP loss did not differ between treatments (p=.86). Spring (April-June) was the most sensitive season, when>75% of annual percolation,>80% of annual NO3 -N, and>68% of annual TP leaching losses occurred from both manure and chemical fertilizer. Annual NO3 -N and TP leaching increased exponentially with cumulative winter and spring precipitation (control, r2 =.69; manure, r2 =.79; chemical fertilizer, r2 =.63) and decreased with winter and spring air temperatures. The largest spring NO3 -N and TP leaching losses were observed in 2013, which followed the dry year of 2012, indicating the potential for nutrient flushing. The findings emphasize the need for environmentally sound N and P management strategies in cold North American regions underlain by coarse-textured soils, particularly during the spring season.

The impact of climate change on growth and drought-induced mortality risk of Robinia pseudoacacia plantations along a precipitation gradient on the Chinese Loess Plateau

Robinia pseudoacacia has been widely planted on the Chinese Loess Plateau for soil and water conservation. Declining growth of R. pseudoacacia plantations has become a recently emerging challenge for revegetation and sustainable forest management in this region. In the suitable area of R. pseudoacacia, we selected four representative study sites along a precipitation gradient (aridity indexes of 1.3 at Fufeng, 1.5 at Changwu, 1.9 at Ansai, and 2.4 at Mizhi) and used an integrated Biome BioGeochemistry-plant hydraulic traits model (BBGC-SPERRY) to assess the climate change impacts on net primary productivity (NPP), maximum leaf area index (LAImax), actual evapotranspiration (AET), and annual average percentage loss of whole-plant hydraulic conductance (APLK) for R. pseudoacacia. We adopted climate scenario data derived from five downscaled Global Circulation Models under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and set baseline (1981–2020), near future (2021–2060, NFP) and far future (2061–2099, FFP) periods. Our projections show annual precipitation will significantly increase during the NFP and FFP at the Ansai and Mizhi sites and increase slightly at the Fufeng and Changwu sites during the FFP; annual maximum and minimum temperatures will increase under all RCPs. The mean NPP and LAImax of R. pseudoacacia will significantly decrease by 9.9% (RCP4.5) to 49.1% (RCP2.6) during the NFP and by 7.4% (RCP4.5) to 50.1% (RCP2.6) during the FFP at the Changwu, Ansai, and Mizhi sites; however, both measures will significantly increase during the NFP and FFP at the Fufeng site. The AET will significantly increase during the NFP and FFP at all sites. The maximum APLK will increase from south to north along the precipitation gradient, with values greater than 60% at the Changwu, Ansai, and Mizhi sites during the NFP and FFP. These results indicate the drought-induced mortality risk of R. pseudoacacia will increase under future climate change.

Spatiotemporal Evolution and Socioeconomic Impacts of Rainstorms and Droughts in Contiguous Poverty-Stricken Areas of China

To consolidate the achievements in the elimination of absolute poverty in China and prevent rural populations from returning to poverty as a result of meteorological disasters, this study analyzed the spatiotemporal characteristics of rainstorms and droughts and their socioeconomic impacts on China’s contiguous poverty-stricken areas (CPSAs) from 1984 to 2019. The annual number of rainstorms and drought days in CPSAs of China reached approximately 1.9 days/year and 44.6 days/year, respectively. It gradually decreased from southeast to northwest. Rainstorms showed a significant increasing trend of 0.075 days/decade, while there is no significant trend in drought days. Due to rainstorms and droughts, the average annual number of people affected and direct economic losses in CPSAs reached 34 million people/year and 29 billion Chinese yuan/year, accounting for 22.9% and 12.6% of China’s total amounts, respectively. The average annual loss rate due to disasters in this region reached 1.6%, which is 0.6% higher than the national level. Furthermore, the distinct features and socioeconomic impacts of rainstorms and droughts were identified on the southeastern and northwestern sides of the population density line (PDL) along Tengchong-Aihui in China. Droughts have often impacted the regions located along the PDL, while rainstorms and droughts have occurred more frequently in the regions to the southeast of the PDL than in the regions to the northwest of the PDL. As a result, the affected population and direct economic losses due to rainstorms and droughts in the regions to the southeast of the PDL were 8.8 and 9.2 times and 3.3 and 7.4 times higher, respectively, than those in the regions on the other side of the PDL. Although the losses were greater, the disaster resistance capabilities were significantly improved in these regions. In contrast, the regions to the northwest side of the PDL exhibited a significant increasing trend in losses with a relatively low disaster resistance capabilities. This study revealed that it is necessary to improve the capability of meteorological disaster prevention and reduction in China’s CPSAs, especially in the regions to the west of the PDL, which could further contribute to the realization of United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.

Improved building-specific flood risk assessment and implications of depth-damage function selection

Average annual loss (AAL) is traditionally used as the basis of assessing flood risk and evaluating risk mitigation measures. This research presents an improved implementation to estimate building-specific AAL, with the flood hazard of a building represented by the Gumbel extreme value distribution. AAL is then calculated by integrating the area under the overall loss-exceedance probability curve using trapezoidal Riemann sums. This implementation is compared with existing AAL estimations from flood risk assessment. A sensitivity analysis is conducted to examine the variability in AAL results based on depth-damage function (DDF) choice. To demonstrate the methodology, a one-story single-family residence is selected to assess the financial benefits of freeboard (i.e., increasing lowest floor elevations). Results show that 1 ft. of freeboard results in annual flood risk reduction of over $1,000, while 4 ft of freeboard results in annual flood risk reduction of nearly $2,000. The sensitivity result suggests that the DDF selection is critical, as a large proportion of flood loss is counted below the top of the first floor. The findings of this paper will enhance DDF selection, improve flood loss estimates, encourage homeowners and communities to invest in flood mitigation, and provide government decision-makers with improved information when considering building code changes.

Exploring benefit cost analysis to support earthquake risk mitigation in Central America

We performed benefit-cost analysis to identify optimum retrofitting interventions for the two most vulnerable building typologies in Central America, unreinforced masonry and adobe, considering the direct costs due to building damage and the indirect costs associated with the injured and fatalities. We reviewed worldwide retrofitting techniques, selected those that could be applied in the region for these building types, and derived vulnerability functions considering the impact of each retrofitting intervention in the strength, stiffness, and ductility of the structures. Probabilistic seismic risk analyses were performed considering the original configuration of each building class, as well as the retrofitted version. We calculated average annual losses to estimate the annual savings due to the different structural interventions, and benefit cost ratios were estimated based on the associated cost of each retrofitting technique. Based on the benefit-cost analyses, for a 50-year time horizon and a 4% discount rate, retrofitting these building classes could be economically viable along the western coast of Central America.

Fasciolosis in sheep and goats slaughtered at abattoirs in Central Ethiopia and associated financial losses

Fasciolosis is a serious animal health problem in Ethiopia where livestock is crucial for the domestic economy. A study was conducted in two Ethiopian abattoirs to estimate the prevalence of Fasciola infection in goats and sheep, and the monetary losses resulting from liver condemnation. Post-mortem examination of 925 animals (424 sheep and 501 goats) were examined by incision of the liver parenchyma for presence of the liver fluke, Fasciola. The direct financial losses were calculated based on the estimated prevalence, the market price of the liver, and the average number of sheep and goats slaughtered annually. The overall prevalence of fasciolosis was 10.4% (20.7% sheep and 1.6% goats). Among the studied variables, species of the study animal and age in sheep showed a statistically significant association with infection (p < 0.05). Based on the annual average of 89,054 sheep and 76,374 goats slaughtered, the annual average economic loss due to the condemned liver was estimated at 3700 US$ (185,232 ETH Birr) for sheep and 245 US$ (12,220 ETH Birr) for goats.This study revealed that the prevalence of fasciolosis was higher in sheep than in goats, and substantial economic losses occur for the sheep and goat industry. Hence, considering the irrigations schemes in the country, strategic control programs targeting Fasciola infection and intermediate hosts are warranted.

Prospects of mango fruit powder production at farm level and its utilisation during mango off-season in Ghana

Mango (Mangifera indica) is an important fruit served to customers as fresh-cut fruit, juice, ice cream and yogurts in many fruit juice joints, restaurants and hotels in Ghana. However, the crop’s highly seasonal and perishable nature is a challenge for food processors and farmers. Preservation of the fruit in dry particulate form can serve as a substitute in off-seasons. The study sought to determine mango fruit powder production prospects at the farm level and explore its potential use as a substitute during the off-season. Farmer groups and food enterprises were therefore interviewed. The study showed that Keitt and Kent varieties were the most cultivated varieties because of market demand and high yield. However, an average annual fruit loss of 29.8% at the farm level was observed. Postharvest extension delivery service to farmers is inadequate, and where available, frequency of contact is irregular. A limited number of farmers received training in fruit processing; and few were engaged in transformational value addition activities but were willing to add value through processing into powder. Probit regression analysis showed that a unit increase in training would increase transformational farm level value addition into mango fruit powder by 22.9%. The majority of the food enterprises source fruits within Ghana while 79% experienced mango fruit shortage in the off-seasons. Only a few of the enterprises used mango fruit-based substitutes to serve customers in off-seasons. Probit regression analysis showed that a marginal increase in processors’ use of substitute significantly (p≤0.05) increased willingness to use mango fruit powder as a substitute by 47%. The study has revealed that local production of mango fruit powder could serve as a substitute to fill the seasonal gap in mango supply and also reduce post-harvest losses.

Long-Term Variations in Global Solar Radiation and Its Interaction with Atmospheric Substances at Qomolangma.

An empirical model to estimate global solar radiation was developed at Qomolangma Station using observed solar radiation and meteorological parameters. The predicted hourly global solar radiation agrees well with observations at the ground in 2008–2011. This model was used to calculate global solar radiation at the ground and its loss in the atmosphere due to absorbing and scattering substances in 2007–2020. A sensitivity analysis shows that the responses of global solar radiation to changes in water vapor and scattering factors (expressed as water-vapor pressure and the attenuation factor, AF, respectively) are nonlinear, and global solar radiation is more sensitive to changes in scattering than to changes in absorption. Further applying this empirical model, the albedos at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) and the surface in 2007–2020 were computed and are in line with satellite-based retrievals. During 2007–2020, the mean estimated annual global solar radiation increased by 0.22% per year, which was associated with a decrease in AF of 1.46% and an increase in water-vapor pressure of 0.37% per year. The annual mean air temperature increased by about 0.16 °C over the 14 years. Annual mean losses of solar radiation caused by absorbing and scattering substances and total loss were 2.55, 0.64, and 3.19 MJ m−2, respectively. The annual average absorbing loss was much larger than the scattering loss; their contributions to the total loss were 77.23% and 22.77%, indicating that absorbing substances play significant roles. The annual absorbing loss increased by 0.42% per year, and scattering and total losses decreased by 2.00% and 0.14% per year, respectively. The estimated and satellite-derived annual albedos increased at the TOA and decreased at the surface. This study shows that solar radiation and its interactions with atmospheric absorbing and scattering substances have played key but different roles in regional climate and climate change at the three poles.

Assessment of Nutrient Loads into the Ryck River and Options for Their Reduction

A massive shift in agricultural practices over the past decades, to support exceptionally high yields and productivities involving intensive agriculture, have led to unsustainable agriculture practices across the globe. Sustenance of such high yields and productivities demand high use of organic and industrial fertilizers. This acts as a negative pressure on the environment. Excessive use of fertilizers leads to nutrient surplus in the fields, which, as a part of catchment runoff, flows into the water bodies as diffuse pollution. These nutrients through rivers are eventually passed into seas. High nutrients ending up into water bodies cause eutrophication. The situation is worsened when such unsustainable agricultural activities are carried out on drained peatlands. As a result, the nutrients that were not part of the nutrient cycle in the landscape for years begin to leach out due to mineralization of peatlands, thereby putting an additional load of nutrients on the environment, that was already under the negative impact of nutrient surplus. In view of the above, a small lowland catchment of the Ryck river in northeast Germany was assessed for its nitrogen losses from agricultural lands through empirical modelling. Initial empirical modelling resulted in an average annual total nitrogen loss of 14.7 kg ha−1 year−1. After a comparative analysis of these results with procured data, the empirical equation was modified to suit the catchment, yielding more accurate results. The study showed that 75.6% of peatlands in the catchment are under agricultural use. Subsequently, a proposal was made for potential wetland buffer zones in the Ryck catchment. Altogether, 13 peatland sites across 8 sub-catchments were recommended for mitigation of high nutrient runoff. In the end, nutrient efficiency of proposed WBZs in one of the sub-catchments of Ryck has been discussed. The results show that (i) the modified empirical equation can act as a key tool in application-based future strategies for nitrogen reduction in the Ryck catchment, (ii) restoration of peatlands and introduction of WBZs can help in mitigating the nutrient runoff for improved water quality of Ryck, and subsequently (ii) contribute to efficient reduction of riverine loads of nutrients into the Baltic Sea.

Evaluation of transgenic chickpea harboring codon-modified Vip3Aa against gram pod borer (Helicoverpa armigera H.).

The gram pod borer is a major pest of chickpea, accounting for average annual yield losses to the tune of 40–50%. VIP3Aa, a class of insecticidal protein with different receptor binding site in the insect’s midgut compared to Bt-crystal protein, offers an alternative protection strategy against Lepidopteran insects. Here, we report evaluation of genetically engineered chickpea lines harboring codon modified Vip3Aa (cmVip3Aa) against the Lepidopteran insect pest, gram pod borer. The synthetic codon modified, cmVip3Aa gene of 2,370 bp was sub-cloned in modified plant expression vector and used for direct transformation of embryonic axis explants of chickpea (cv. DCP 92–3), with transformation efficiency of 4.30%. Presence and transmission of transgene across two generations were confirmed by PCR and Southern blot analyses in the five selected transgenic chickpea lines. Real Time PCR analyses indicated variable levels of cmVip3Aa expression in the transgenic chickpea lines (average Cq values 15.01±0.86 to 19.32±0.10), which were absent in the non-transgenic counterpart. Detached leaf insect bioassay indicate larval mortality (up to 39.75%), reduced larval feeding (up to 82.91%) and reduced larval weight gain (up to 68.23%), compared to control lines. Evaluation of gene offers a platform to identify efficacious insecticidal gene that can be used for insect resistance management in chickpea.

Exploring the impact of spatial correlations of earthquake ground motions in the catastrophe modelling process: a case study for Italy

Catastrophe models are important tools to provide proper assessment and financial management of earthquake-related emergencies, which still create the largest protection gap across all perils. Earthquake catastrophe models include three main components, namely: (1) the earthquake hazard model, (2) the exposure model and, (3) the vulnerability model. Simulating spatially distributed ground-motion fields within either deterministic or probabilistic seismic hazard assessments poses a major challenge when site-related financial protection products are required. In this framework, we develop ad hoc correlation models for different Italian regions (specifically northern, central and southern Italy) and thereafter we perform both deterministic scenario-based and probabilistic event-based hazard and risk assessments in order to advance the understanding of spatial correlations within the catastrophe modelling process. We employ the OpenQuake engine for our calculations. This is an open-source tool suitable for accounting for the spatial correlation of earthquake ground-motion residuals. Our outcomes, albeit preliminary, demonstrate the importance of considering not only the spatial correlation of ground motions, but also its associated uncertainty in risk analyses. Although loss exceedance probability curves for the return periods of interest for the (re)insurance industry show similar trends, both hazard and risk footprints in terms of average annual losses feature less noisy and more realistic patterns if spatial correlation is taken into account. Such results will have implications for (re)insurance companies evaluating the risk to high-value civil engineering infrastructures.

Risk caused by the propagation of earthquake losses through the economy

The economy of a country is exposed to disruptions caused by natural and man-made disasters. Here we present a set of probabilistic risk indicators, the Average Annual Loss (AAL) and the Loss Exceedance Curve (LEC), regarding to production, employment, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Gross Regional Product (GRP), export volume, inflation, tariff revenue, among others, due to earthquakes. All indicators are computed using a systematic probabilistic approach, which integrates the seismic risk assessment with spatial computable general equilibrium models, both robust and well-known frameworks used worldwide in their respective fields. Our approach considers the induced damage and frequency of occurrence of a vast collection of events that collectively describe the entire seismic hazard of a country, giving us a better and more complete understanding of the full consequence of earthquakes. We illustrate this approach with an example developed for Chile.