Average Annual Increase Research Articles

Incidence, trends and patterns of female breast, cervical, colorectal and prostate cancers in Antigua and Barbuda, 2017–2021: a retrospective study

BackgroundGlobally, estimates of cancer cases and deaths have increased since 2018, particularly in Latin America and Caribbean countries. In Antigua and Barbuda, understanding the burden of common cancers such as female breast, cervical, colorectal and prostate cancers is critical. This study aimed to assess the incidence, trends, and patterns of these four cancers from 2017 to 2021.MethodsUsing a retrospective observational study design, information on these cancers was abstracted from medical records at four key study sites in Antigua and Barbuda. Estimates of age-specific and age-standardized incidence were determined using direct standardization. The KeyFitz method was used to derive standard errors and confidence intervals. Derived estimates were employed to analyze trends and Joinpoint regression modeling was used to determine annual percentage change.ResultsBetween 2017 and 2021, 391 cases of female breast (41.7%), cervical (10.2%), colorectal (20.2%) and prostate (27.9%) cancers were diagnosed. Overall mean age at presentation was 61.5 (± 12.9) years, ranging from 24 to 94 years, age-standardized incidence rate 65.2 (95% CI: 58.7–71.6) per 100,000 population. Age-standardized incidence rate for female breast cancer was 49.9 (95% CI: 42.2–57.8), annual percentage change in incidence a low of -0.2%. Prostate cancer had the second highest age-standardized incidence rate at 41.6 (95% CI: 33.8–49.4), annual percentage change showed a gradual but steady increase at 21.7%. Per cancer types, variations in age-standardized incidence rates were noted across age-groups, year-of-presentation, and parishes. Collectively, there was an 8.1% (95% CI: -14.9–37.6) annual percentage change increase in age-standardized incidence rates between 2017 and 2021. Incident cases, age-standardized incidence rates, and trends per cancer type are expected to gradually increase during 2022–2030 (average annual percentage increase is 3.4%).ConclusionsThis study is a first step in providing reasonable evidence on the incidence, trends, and patterns of four common cancers in Antigua and Barbuda. Female breast and prostate cancers were the dominant cancer types in terms of incidence, age-standardized incidence and predicted increasing incidence trends. Variableness in cancer-specific age-standardized rates across parishes and years of presentation were observed. Besides research, this study has importance for instituting cancer prevention and control measures, including surveillance and healthy lifestyles initiatives.

Quantifying Thermal Discharges from Nuclear Power Plants: A Remote Sensing Analysis of Environmental Function Zones

Nuclear energy plays a crucial role in global carbon reduction. However, thermal discharges from nuclear power plants can potentially impact marine ecosystems. This study investigates the long-term thermal impact of the Haiyang Nuclear Power Plant on the adjacent marine environment using a decade-long Landsat thermal infrared dataset. Spatial and temporal patterns of thermal discharge were analyzed, focusing on the temperature difference between intake and outlet water, the warming trend in the thermal mixing zone, and the spatial distribution of the thermal plume. Our results indicate the following: (1) Seasonal Variation in Thermal Discharge: The temperature difference between intake and outlet water exhibited significant seasonal variability, with higher values in winter and lower values in summer. The spatial distribution of the thermal plume was influenced by tidal currents, leading to a cyclical pattern. (2) Long-Term Warming Trend: Prolonged thermal discharge resulted in a notable warming trend in the thermal mixing zone, with an average annual increase of 0.3 °C. This warming effect was most pronounced in winter and least in summer. (3) Spatial Distribution of Thermal Plume: The spatial extent and intensity of the thermal plume varied seasonally. Summer exhibited a larger influence range but with lower temperature rises, while winter showed a smaller influence range but with higher temperature rises. In winter, the 4 °C temperature rise area exceeded the designated environmental functional zone boundary in some instances. These findings provide valuable insights into the thermal impact of nuclear power plants and highlight the importance of considering seasonal variations and long-term monitoring to ensure environmental sustainability.

Have gender and ethnic disparities in ophthalmology disappeared? Insights from a workforce-based study in Israel (2006–2021)

BackgroundWorkforce diversity in healthcare has been shown to improve the quality of patient care. A paucity of data exists globally on this subject in ophthalmology. The purpose of this study was to analyze nationwide trends in gender-, ethnic- and country of graduation disparities among ophthalmologists in Israel.MethodsCross-sectional, workforce-based study using data retrieved from the Israeli Ministry of Health. Data included gender, ethnicity, and medical graduation country. Proportions and trends among new residents and board-certified ophthalmologists (BCO) were assessed.ResultsDuring 2006–2021, 18,624 medical licenses were issued (41.7% Israeli Medical Graduates (IsrMGs), 42.2% female), average yearly increase (AYI) was 6.9%, females and IsrMGs had an average yearly decrease of 1% and 0.53%, respectively. 561 physicians began ophthalmology residency (57.5% male, 75% Jewish, 69.9% IsrMGs), reflecting a 6.2% total AYI, but 8.1% and 4.8% for female versus male residents, respectively. There were fewer female residents despite population and graduate pool adjustments (p = 0.002 and p = 0.002, respectively), but differences disappeared after 2015 (p = 0.52). Arab and Jewish residents AYIs were 6.4% and 5.7% respectively, with ethnic differences elucidated by adjusting for population sizes (p = 0.097). BCO densities in 2006 and 2021 were 7.5 and 9.06, respectively, with a 1.3% AYI (p < 0.001). Proportions of female and Arab BCO were lower than expected based on population proportions. (p < 0.001 and p < 0.001, respectively). Gender-differences remained after adjusting for population sizes (p < 0.001), but AYIs for female and male BCO were 1.38% and 1.15%, respectively. AYIs for Arab and Jewish BCO were 12% and 0.61%, respectively.ConclusionsJewish and male dominance was seen among Israeli BCOs and was unrelated to population size or graduate distribution. Among new ophthalmology residents, Arab representation was adequate to their population proportion. In early years, male predominance was noted, however this disparity was no longer evident after 2015. These trends are encouraging, and efforts should be made to ensure the field remains inclusive and representative of the broader population.

Spatiotemporal Patterns and Driving Forces Analysis of Ecological Carbon Sink from 2001 to 2022 in Qinling-Daba Mountains,China

The Qinling-Daba Mountain area, an essential ecological conservation zone in China, occupies a pivotal position in the pursuit of carbon neutrality. Using diverse data sources, including temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, we refined the CASA model by replacing model indicators. This enhanced model simulated the net primary productivity of vegetation in the Qinling-Daba Mountain area from 2001 to 2022. Additionally, we employed a method that subtracts soil respiration （Rh） from the simulated vegetation net primary productivity to calculate the regional net ecosystem productivity （NEP）, thereby characterizing the ecological carbon sink. Employing techniques such as linear regression analysis, MK trend testing, partial correlation analysis, and composite correlation analysis, we examined the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of NEP over the past 22 years in the Qinling-Daba Mountain area and assessed the degree of influence of various factors. Our findings revealed that： ① Over the past 22 years, the vegetation NEP in the Qinling-Daba Mountain area displayed a fluctuating upward trend, with an average annual increase of 168 g·m-2·a-1, resulting in a total increase of 52.2 Tg in regional vegetation NEP （in terms of C） over the 22-year period. ② Spatially, the Qinling-Daba Mountain area predominantly functioned as a carbon sink, with only 0.3% of the area serving as a carbon source, primarily concentrated in a punctate pattern on the eastern side of the Qinling-Daba Mountain area. ③ Changes in the carbon sink in the Qinling-Daba Mountain area were the consequence of the interaction of multiple factors, with 60% of the contribution stemming from climatic factors. The combined weak driving force of temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation accounted for as much as 29%, distributed in a scattered manner across the central and eastern regions of the Qinling-Daba Mountain area.

Inconspicuous taxa in citizen science-based botanical research: actual contribution, limitations, and new opportunities for non-vascular cryptogams

Citizen science (CS) has gathered an impressive wealth of open biodiversity data over the last decade, with demonstrated significant scientific contributions in biology and conservation science. However, the contribution of CS in botanical research, and more particularly regarding inconspicuous taxonomic groups such as cryptogams remains largely unexplored. Here we assess the current status and contribution of CS in botanical research, with a special focus on non-vascular “cryptogams” (bryophytes, lichens, fungi, and algae). We conducted a literature review for the period 2012 to 2022 to synthesize the use of CS in botanical studies. We found an increasing trend in the use of CS for botanical research (average annual increase of ∼40%), although highly biased towards vascular plants (246 papers). Cryptogams remained strongly underrepresented (58 papers), although receiving slightly growing attention since 2018. The inconspicuousness nature, high diversity, challenges with species identification, and low public perception of cryptogams not only restrict the contribution made by non-experts but raise concerns about the reliability and robustness of generated data. This is fueled by the scarcity of foundational methodological studies in cryptogams, which seems to undermine the scientific confidence in engaging volunteers for their research or using open data from CS platforms and tools. Despite this, our review showed a gradual adoption of CS approaches for cryptogam research, which is particularly led by mycologists. We highlight the versatility and potential of CS approaches for advancing cryptogam knowledge across various research subjects at spatial and temporal scales otherwise unfathomable by researchers, and provide insights on the opportunities of application and possible solutions to the discussed limitations. We hope our work motivates mycologists, phycologists, bryologists, and lichenologists to further embrace CS, and increase public awareness on these highly sensitive and ecologically important taxa.

Mediji, migracije i terorizam - neke korelacije

Topics such as terrorism and uncontrolled migration have been prominent on the agenda for decades, frequently filling newspaper articles and boosting viewership on online platforms and social media. At the same time, media coverage of these issues is often saturated with elements of catastrophe and spectacle, leading even some within the academic community to adopt superficial and poorly documented analyses of these phenomena and their associated processes. This paper offers a modest contribution, not as a definitive truth but rather as a direction for analyzing these current and, according to the media, highly interconnected phenomena. How do terrorist attacks influence attitudes toward migrants? Such attacks' impact depends on the news reception's geographical location, indicating spatial conditioning. If terrorist attacks shape citizens' views on migration through a sense of immediate danger and fear, then proximity to the attack would be the primary conditioning factor. On the other hand, the local migration context of the news recipient can also significantly influence the effect. In homogeneous societies with little experience of immigration, citizens are more inclined to adopt discourses that link migration with terrorism, making these societies more susceptible to the adoption of negative attitudes. Beyond this spatial variable, as documented in research, the fact that the perpetrator of a terrorist act is Muslim significantly amplifies the news of the event itself, further generating prejudices against followers of the youngest monotheistic religion. Moreover, this wave of opposition to migration processes by right-wing populists in Europe is often associated with protecting against the Islamization of Europe (Subotić and Mitrović 2023, 123). When discussing the onset of the migrant wave toward Europe (which indeed correlated with numerous terrorist actions on European soil) and the last few years, during which there has been an increased influx of migrants alongside a significant reduction in the number of terrorist actions and their consequences, we must be aware of the statistical risk. More frequent migrant routes inevitably imply a greater likelihood that terrorists might infiltrate these groups or later join jihadist terrorism. However, there is no clear causal link despite this widely inferred correlation. More specifically, no clearly articulated or at least documented analysis indicates a consistent connection between the hypothesis that "terrorism causes migration" and the one suggesting that "migration causes terrorism." In the first case, the correlative element is certain and distinctly emphasized. The numerous actions of the terrorist organization that was at the peak of its power at the time - ISIS - undoubtedly contributed to the scale and intensity of the intense migratory pressure toward Europe. Additionally, the intensity of terrorist activities and the number of fatalities due to terrorism on European soil (primarily in France) during the most migrationintensive year, 2015, were notably high. However, it cannot be concluded that the increase in the number of irregular entries by as much as 80% compared to the average from the period of 2010 to 2014 led to the rise in terrorist attacks and/or fatalities in Europe by a similar percentage. The most recent cross-referenced data from the fourth consecutive year of increased migratory pressure toward Europe, combined with the occurrence or threat of terrorist acts, indicates quite the opposite. The average annual increase in the number of irregular migrants to Europe since 2021 is approximately 33%, while the number of terrorist activities has simultaneously decreased by nearly 35%. There is no doubt that immigration "contributes" to the spread of terrorism from one country to another. Still, it is unlikely that immigration alone would be a direct cause of terrorism. Furthermore, there is currently no empirical evidence to suggest that irregular immigrants (first-generation immigrants) are more prone to becoming terrorists. However, it must be noted that migration flows from countries where terrorism is more frequent do have a more significant impact on attacks in destination countries. Ultimately, all the findings suggest that, despite extensive political and media claims to the contrary, unauthorized immigration has not been a central driver of terrorist activities in recent decades.

National assessment on the frequency of pain medication prescribed for intrauterine device insertion procedures within the Veterans Affairs Health Care System.

The intrauterine device (IUD) is a highly effective form of long-acting reversible contraception, widely recognized for its convenience and efficacy. Despite its benefits, many patients report moderate to severe pain during and after their IUD insertion procedure. Furthermore, reports suggest significant variability in pain control medications, including no adequate pain medication. The aim of this evaluation was to assess the pharmaceutical pain medication types, proportions, and trends related to IUD insertion procedures within the Veterans Health Administration (VHA). IUD insertion procedures documented in the VA electronic health record were assessed from 1/1/2018 to 10/13/2023. Descriptive statistics described patient and facility characteristics while annual trends were assessed using linear regression. Out of the 28,717 procedures captured, only 11.4% had any form of prescribed pain medication identified. Non-Steroidal Anti-Inflammatory Drugs (NSAIDs) were the most frequently prescribed pain medication category (8.3%), with ibuprofen being the most common pain medication overall (6.1%). Over the assessment period, there was an average annual increase of 0.52% (p = 0.038) of procedures with prescribed pain medication, increasing from 10.3% in 2018 to 13.3% in 2023. Although IUD insertion procedures have been seeing an increase in prescribed pain medication, the overall proportion remains disproportionality low relative to the pain experienced. Additionally, when pain interventions were initiated, they disproportionally utilized medication that have been shown to be ineffective. The intent of the work is that the information will help guide data driven pain medication strategies for patients undergoing IUD insertion procedures within the VHA.

Impact of American Thyroid Association's Revised Cancer Management Guidelines on Thyroid Cancer Incidence Trends: A Retrospective Cohort Study, 2000-2020.

Background: The past four decades have seen a steady increase in thyroid cancer in the United States (US). This study investigated the impact of the American Thyroid Association (ATA)'s revised cancer management guidelines on thyroid cancer incidence trends and how the trends varied by socioeconomic, histologic, geographic, and racial and ethnic characteristics from 2000 to 2020. Methods: We used data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database to identify thyroid cancer cases diagnosed among US patients between 2000 and 2020. We employed joinpoint regression software to fit, assess, and compare thyroid cancer incidence trends over time stratified by socioeconomic status (SES), histologic type, geographic location, and race/ethnicity. Results: Between 2000 and 2009, there was an average annual increase of 5.8% in thyroid cancer incidence (average annual percent change (AAPC): 5.8, p < 0.05). Subsequently, there was a modest rise (AAPC: 1.1, p < 0.05) from 2010 to 2015, followed by a significant annual decrease of 4.8% from 2016 to 2020 (AAPC: -4.8, p < 0.05). The joinpoint regression models identified prominent inflection points around 2009 and 2015, aligning with the years of the ATA's cancer management revisions. These intricate dynamics in thyroid cancer incidence trends from 2000 to 2020 were shaped by SES and histologic, geographic, and racial/ethnic factors. Conclusions: Thyroid cancer incidence trends over the past two decades can be partially explained by the changes in thyroid cancer screening and management recommendations. These findings underscore the importance of cancer management strategies and highlight the need for targeted interventions to address disparities in thyroid cancer incidence across minority demographic groups.

Scientometric approach to the scientific trends in articles on seagrass in the Atlantic Coast published between 1969-2024

Submerged or partially floating seagrasses in marine or brackish waters form productive seagrass beds, feeding grounds for a rich and varied associated biota, play key ecological roles in mitigating climate change and provide ecosystem services for humanity. The objective of this study was to perform a temporal quali- and quantitative analysis on the scientific production on seagrasses in the Atlantic Ocean during last 64 years (1960 to 2024) through defined workflow by scientometric analysis on Scopus database. Publications in this database date back to 1969, comprising a total of 3.482 scientific articles, primary focused on seagrass ecology. These articles were published in 574 distinct peer-reviewed scientific ecological journals, and are divided into four periods based on the number of articles, keywords and biograms, with an average annual increase of 8.28% in the number of articles published. Zostera marina, Halodule wrightii and Thalassia testudinum were the most researched species, especially in Atlantic coastal areas of Europe and North/Central America. Studies on seagrasses along the Atlantic coast have been well consolidated by a few authors with prolific scientific output, but much of the research has been conducted by non-specialists who published only one or a few articles. We also found that researches from each continent tend to focus on specific topics: North America researches investigated future climate change scenarios and seagrass ecology, while those from Europe prioritize on restoration plans. Additionaly, European researchers from Europe predominantly collaborate with local scientists, a trend also observed among American researches. This indicates a need for increase research and scientific production in the South Atlantic region.

Automatic ventilation and cooling of the building using the combination of wind deflector and solar chimney (state 3D with differential perspective)

Using new sources of energy and inventing new methods for energy consumption has always been the focus of researchers. The building sector is known to contribute largely in total energy consumption and CO2. Expanding the availability of energy storage technology and materials is considered as crucial as discovering new energy sources. The International Energy Outlook by the EIA (Energy Information Administration of the outlook) examines and predicts future trends in building energy usage. It anticipates a 34% growth in energy consumption within the built environment over the next two decades, with an average annual increase of 1.5%. By 2030, it is projected that approximately 67% of this consumption will be attributed to dwellings, while the non-domestic sectors will account for about 33%. This study endeavors to combine one of these ventilation techniques from ancient Persian architecture, known as the windcatcher in the form of an innovative roof radiative cooling (Windcatcher) with a solar chimney. In order to save energy consumption and reduce environmental problems by presenting the idea of using solar energy to exhaust the air inside the building through the chimney and using the latent heat of water evaporation to create cooling that is carried out in the direction of the wind by the windcatcher. Hence, fuel consumption can be created in hot and dry areas, in a comfortable environment with suitable humidity conditions. The purpose of this research is to introduce computational areas (3D) and determine the governing values and methods calculated by Ansys Fluent software, which has enabled the use of suction and the creation of moisture balance and heat reduction without fuel consumption, which plays an important role in It implements energy efficiency in the building. This system is also able to save 60% cooling energy and 80% of the ventilation energy during peak hours in a warm and arid climate. Furthermore, the effects of a wall opening on ventilation and thermal efficiency were examined.

Colorectal cancer incidence trends in younger versus older adults: an analysis of population-based cancer registry data.

Previous studies have shown that colorectal cancer incidence is increasing among younger adults (aged <50 years) in multiple high-income western countries in contrast with stabilising or decreasing trends in incidence in older adults (aged ≥50 years). This study aimed to investigate contemporary colorectal cancer incidence trends in younger adults versus older adults. Colorectal cancer incidence data, including year of diagnosis, sex, and 5-year age group for 50 countries and territories, were extracted from the WHO-International Agency for Research on Cancer Cancer Incidence in Five Continents Plus database. The Human Development Index 2022 was retrieved from the United Nations Development Programme and grouped into very high (>0·80), high (0·70-0·79), medium (0·55-0·69), and low (<0·55) categories. Age-standardised incidence rates (ASR) per 100 000 person-years of early-onset (diagnosed between ages 25 to 49 years) and late-onset (diagnosed between ages 50 to 74 years) colorectal cancer (ICD 10th revision, C18-20), diagnosed between 1943-2003 and 2015-17, were calculated using the direct method and Segi-Doll world standard population). The primary study objective was to examine contemporary colorectal cancer incidence trends in younger adults versus older adults using data until 2017 from 50 countries and territories. Temporal trends were visualised and quantified with joinpoint regression, stratified by age at diagnosis (25-49 years or 50-74 years). Average annual percentage changes (AAPC) were estimated. In the most recent 5 years (2013-17 for all countries analysed, except for Japan [2011-15], Spain [2012-16], and Costa Rica [2012-16]), the incidence rate of early-onset colorectal cancer was highest in Australia (ASR 16·5 [95% CI 16·1-16·9]), the USA (Puerto Rico; 15·2 [14·2-16·2]), New Zealand (14·8 [14·0-15·6]), the USA (14·8 [14·7-14·9]), and South Korea (14·3 [14·0-14·5]) and lowest in Uganda (4·4 [3·6-5·2]) and India (3·5 [3·3-3·7]). The highest incidence rates among older adults were found in the Netherlands (168·4 [166·9-170·0]) and Denmark (158·3 [155·8-160·9]) and the lowest were in Uganda (45·9 [38·5-51·4]) and India (23·5 [22·8-24·3]). In terms of AAPC, in the most recent 10 years, incidence rates of early-onset colorectal cancer were stable in 23 countries, but increased in 27 countries with the greatest annual increases in New Zealand (AAPC 3·97% [95% CI 2·44-5·52]), Chile (3·96% [1·26-6·74]), Puerto Rico (3·81% [2·68-4·96]), and England (3·59% [3·12-4·06]). 14 of the 27 countries and territories showed either stable (Argentina, France, Ireland, Norway, and Puerto Rico) or decreasing (Australia, Canada, Germany, Israel, New Zealand, Slovenia, England, Scotland, and the USA) trends in older adults. For the 13 countries with increasing trends in both age groups, the average annual percentage increase in younger compared to older adults was higher in Chile, Japan, Sweden, the Netherlands, Croatia, and Finland; lower in Thailand, France (Martinique), Denmark, and Costa Rica; and similar in Türkiye, Ecuador, and Belarus. The rise in early-onset colorectal cancer was faster among men than women in Chile, Puerto Rico, Argentina, Ecuador, Thailand, Sweden, Israel, and Croatia, whereas faster increase among women compared to men was in England, Norway, Australia, Türkiye, Costa Rica, and Scotland. Early-onset colorectal cancer incidence rates are rising in 27 of 50 countries and territories examined, with the rise either exclusive to early-onset disease or faster than the increase in older adults in 20 of the 27 countries. The findings underscore the need for intensified efforts to identify factors driving these trends and increase awareness to help facilitate early detection. Intramural Research Program of the American Cancer Society, Cancer Grand Challenges, and National Institutes of Health.

Analysis of spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and recovery patterns of mangrove forests in China since 1978

Mangrove ecosystems have garnered significant attention for their pivotal role in the global carbon cycle and their contributions to multiple UN Sustainable Development Goals. In China, the strategic pivot towards comprehensive ecological restoration in mangrove management underscores an urgent need for a nuanced understanding of mangrove evolutionary patterns. However, existing remote sensing-based information on mangrove dynamics exhibits discrepancies, lacking a cohesive and precise understanding. Accordingly, this study utilized high-resolution GaoFen imagery and precise visual interpretation methods to meticulously update an existing mangrove dataset through 2022, ensuring high accuracy and improved timeliness. Building on this, the study conducted a rigorous spatiotemporal analysis of mangrove dynamics from 1978 to 2022, developed an index to assess recovery status, and ultimately proposed targeted recommendations for conservation and restoration. Findings reveal that between 2018 and 2022, China’s mangrove expanse witnessed an average annual net increase of 2.82%, marking an unprecedented high. Breaking down the net change, the rate of gain accelerated, averaging 878.63 ha per year, but it is noteworthy that the losses also increased rapidly, tripling that of the previous period, mainly in regions with intense human activities such as the Pearl River Estuary. This finding complements the general perception of a continuous net increase in mangrove areas, highlighting the paradox of significant contraction occurring alongside rapid expansion. Additionally, by 2022, mangrove extent had recovered to 28,641 ha, essentially returning to the 1978 level, yet characterized by poor stability and significant spatial heterogeneity, with Guangdong and Hainan exhibiting recovery indices below the average. The study emphasizes that the ecosystem’s intrinsic restorative capabilities have emerged as a critical factor in offsetting losses and signaling a positive trend. The latest data provided by this study can offer actionable insights and support for mangrove conservation and restoration initiatives, serving the goal of ecosystem recovery and affirming their indispensable role in environmental governance.

Projected Intensification and Expansion of Heat Stress and Related Population Exposure Over Africa Under Future Climates

AbstractAfrica lacks comprehensive studies related to the intensification and expansion of high levels of heat stress and the related population exposure. In this regards, two heat stress indices (HI and UTCI) are applied to 30 CMIP6 GCMs to assess the robust changes in heat stress over Africa during the late 21st century under the SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5 forcing scenarios. The analysis includes spatial extent, frequency and population exposure of different risk levels (Safe, Caution, Extreme Caution and Danger) gradually rising as the value of the heat index increases. The projections show a recession of Safe areas and a robust expansion of the Caution and Extreme caution classes, irrespective of the seasons and scenarios. The largest change of fractional areal cover, estimated between 23.9% and 30.7% of Africa land areas, occurs for the Extreme caution category over West Africa, East Africa, Central Africa and part of East southern Africa in JJA under the SSP5‐8.5 scenario. Furthermore, regions north of 5°S are projected to face an average annual increase of the number of days with high‐end heat stress conditions intensifying as greenhouse gas forcing increases. Under the SSP5‐8.5, the change in the number of days with Extreme caution ranges between 60% and 80%, while that of days in the Danger category reaches 10%–20%. As a result, the total population exposure to the Extreme caution category is projected to increase over West Africa, East Africa, and Central Africa under both SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5 scenarios, while for the Danger class, the exposure increase is limited to the Sahel regions under SSP5‐8.5. These exposures are due to the intensification of heat stress but also to its interaction with an increased population. Our results thus highlight the need of adaptation measures to extreme heat in Africa in order to ensure healthy population and safe and efficient working conditions.

Age and sex as key determinants of multiple sclerosis incidence in Spain: a comprehensive analysis using the global burden of disease database (1990-2019).

To explore trends in multiple sclerosis incidence rates in Spain between 1990 and 2019. We use data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 to calculate age-standardised incidence rates of multiple sclerosis and identify significant changes over time using the Joinpoint regression model. We also use the Age-Period-Cohort model to understand the separate influences of age, historical period, and birth cohort on these trends. Between 1990 and 2019, Spain reported 31,152 cases of multiple sclerosis, with an average annual growth rate of 1.3%, slightly higher in men (1.40%) than in women (1.28%). Joinpoint analysis revealed non-parallel trends of incidence between sexes, with men experiencing increases and declines along five differentiated periods, while women showed increasing rates until 2015, followed by stabilization. The incidence of multiple sclerosis increased over time in both sexes achieving an average annual increase of 1.6% for men and 1.4% for women. Individuals born in the early to mid-20th century experienced a different trajectory compared to later generations. For both sexes, their MS risk steadily climbed from the mid-20th century, reaching a peak in the 1970s and 1980s for men and potentially later in the 1990s for women. This peak was then followed by a plateauing of risk in subsequent years. Overall, this study offers valuable insights into MS incidence trends in Spain, highlighting sex disparities, age effects, and generational patterns. Further research is needed to understand the complex interplay of age, period, and cohort effects, as well as regional and environmental factors contributing to risk of new cases of multiple sclerosis.

The Long-Term Variations of Phytoplankton Biomass in the Lower Nakdong River: 2000~2021

Objectives : Globally, the mass proliferation of phytoplankton driven by climate change has emerged as a significant societal issue. This study analyzes over two decades of long-term hydraulic, hydrological, and water quality data collected from the lower Nakdong River, along with changes in phytoplankton community biomass. The aim is to evaluate long-term trends in water quality and the ecological changes occurring in this region.Methods : The monitoring site in the lower Nakdong River is Mulgeum, where samples were collected weekly from January 2000 to December 2021 for the analysis of physicochemical water quality characteristics, as well as phytoplankton abundance and species composition. The hydrological status was assessed using flow rate data from the Jin-dong (Haman) station of the Nakdong River, along with rainfall data from the Korea Meteorological Administration for eight regions influencing the lower Nakdong River.Results and Discussion : Analysis of the annual average concentration changes of water quality parameters at the Mulgeum intake site in the lower Nakdong River found that water quality has generally improved since the construction period (2009-2012) of the weir. This improvement is attributed to the strengthening of T-P water quality standards for sewage treatment plant discharges in 2012, which resulted in enhanced phosphorus treatment at wastewater facilities in the river's middle and upper regions. Consequently, significant reductions were observed in the annual average concentrations of BOD, NO&lt;sub&gt;3&lt;/sub&gt;-N, T-N, and T-P. Evaluating long-term changes in flow rate and rainfall, it was found that both annual average rainfall and flow rate decreased after the weir was installed, particularly from May to September when temperatures rise. Rainfall decreased by approximately 8% to 38%, while flow rate decreased by 46% to 62%. Long-term temperature changes indicated that summer temperatures increased by 0.9&lt;sup&gt;o&lt;/sup&gt;C to 1.4&lt;sup&gt;o&lt;/sup&gt;C, and winter temperatures rose by 1.6&lt;sup&gt;o&lt;/sup&gt;C to 2.0&lt;sup&gt;o&lt;/sup&gt;C, resulting in an overall annual average increase of about 1.3&lt;sup&gt;o&lt;/sup&gt;C. An analysis of long-term changes in phytoplankton biomass and community composition revealed an increase in average biomass from 3,639 cells/mL before the weir was installed to 4,034 cells/mL afterward, representing an increase of about 11%. In winter, the dominance period and biomass of diatoms decreased, while in summer, the biomass and dominance period of cyanobacteria increased. Notably, in August, biomass increased approximately 7.5 times, rising from 2,009 cells/mL before the dam to 15,059 cells/mL afterward. This significant increase was identified as a key factor in the overall rise in phytoplankton biomass following the weir's installation.Conclusion : Recent climate change impacts, such as rising average temperatures and shifting rainfall patterns, have become increasingly evident in South Korea. This study utilizes over 20 years of long-term data to demonstrate that, in the lower Nakdong River, there has been a gradual decline in both rainfall and flow rates, accompanied by an increase in average temperatures. Consequently, the dominance period and biomass of diatoms have decreased. In contrast, cyanobacteria, which thrive in warmer conditions, have experienced an extended dominance period into early spring and late autumn as a result of rising temperatures, leading to an overall increase in cyanobacterial biomass.

BIBLIOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF THE MAP OF THE DEVELOPMENT AND INFLUENCE OF THE PHENOMENON OF STREET CRIME (1966-2023) FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF ISLAMIC LAW

This study aims to determine the crimes that are still rampant in Indonesia by researching street crimes in Indonesia. This study employs qualitative research methods with a normative juridical approach, analyzing secondary data from published literature. The research employs bibliometric data analysis techniques through searching, deepening, examining, investigating, and researching all publications indexed in Scopus regarding the impact of street crime phenomena on public peace from a criminological perspective: public spaces in Indonesia from 1996 to 2023. The obtained data will be analyzed using Microsoft Excel and R/R-Studio applications. VOSviewer will be used synchronously for synchronous analysis of keyword emergence. Street crime is a phenomenon of street-level criminal activities observed from a specialized execution perspective. Terms in the Quran and Hadith related to the behaviour of klitih (a local term for violent behaviour) are also discussed, including the forms of legal measures applied to it. The term al-hirabah refers to armed groups aiming to create chaos, spill blood, and harm people, which is entirely contrary to religion, morality, rules, and laws. Prevention can be approached through traditional means, and legal enforcement must involve various community elements to take control of the issue with support from the state and formal institutions. The results show an annual growth rate of 6.49%, which represents the average yearly increase in published research papers on street crime over the studied period. This research provides a brief overview of the accessible literature and offers recommendations for future research.

Statistical methods to study the relationship of stability of dynamics and fluctuations in winter wheat yields with solar activity

Subject. The article addresses the influence of solar activity cycles on the stability of dynamics and fluctuations of winter wheat yields, on the Orel Oblast case. Objectives. The purpose of the study is to explore the relationship of solar activity in Wolf numbers with fluctuations in winter wheat yield; provide a quantitative measure of the relationship. Methods. We employed statistical methods for measuring trends in dynamics, established indicators of stability and fluctuation of yields, used time series correlation, the M. Kendall's method by the number of turning points to determine the type of fluctuations, tabular and graphical methods. Results. We presented time series of winter wheat yields for 1954–2022 (for 69 years). They include six 11-year cycles of solar activity. Taking into account the historical, socio-economic, agrotechnological conditions of development and achievements of breeding, we examined the time series of winter wheat yields for several periods. For 1954–2022, winter wheat yields increased 3.8 times, the average annual absolute increase was 10 times. The coefficient of determination confirmed that 11.2% of fluctuations in winter wheat yield were due to the influence of solar activity. Conclusions. The study of the variability of winter wheat yields showed that for 22-year cycles of solar activity, only 2% of yield fluctuations were due to differences in deviations of annual Wolf number levels from the average annual level.

Protectionism and Sanctions Policy of the USA towards the Gas Industry of the Russian Federation in the Period 2014–2022

We studied the impact of US protectionism and sanctions policy on the Russian gas industry in the period 2014–2022. Information on global energy production and the level of natural gas production in various countries for 2014–2022 was taken from the database of the international research company Enerdata. Statistical indicators of the activities of PJSC Gazprom were extracted from the organisation’s annual statistical reports. During the statistical analysis, a database was created, growth rates, total and proportional values were determined, and a correlation and regression analysis was conducted. It was established that the leading countries in gas production in 2014–2022 were the USA and the Russian Federation. The average annual increase in gas production in the above observation period was 4.4 % in the USA and 1.3 % in the Russian Federation Restrictions on the access of Russian natural gas to global markets led to an increase in the share of gas produced in the USA in global energy production by 0.97 % (from 5.05 % in 2014–2018 to 6.02% in 2019–2022), the Russian Federation’s indicators were 4.36 and 4.58 % respectively (an increase of 0.22 %). Diversification of gas imports from the Russian Federation to friendly countries is hampered by insufficient pipeline capabilities, sanctions on the supply of equipment for the development of gas liquefaction capacities, and the growth of their own gas production. In China, the average annual increase in natural gas production in 2014–2022 was 6.8 %. A targeted policy to stimulate domestic gas demand in the Russian Federation as a response to restrictions on foreign markets has made it possible to achieve an average annual increase in gas consumption in our country of 1.2 %. Thus,the US sanctions protectionism slows down the development of the gas industry in the Russian Federation and allows the US to fill the vacant niche in the global gas market.

Yield growth patterns of food commodities: Insights and challenges.

Understanding global food production and productivity patterns is crucial for policy and investment decisions aimed at addressing poverty, food insecurity, and climate change. This paper develops comprehensive calorific-based production and yield indices for 144 crops, covering 98% of global agricultural land and food output. These indices provide standardized measures across various crops and varieties, facilitating comparison of agricultural productivity and consolidating country and regional contributions to global food production. Utilizing a Box-Cox transformation, we find that a linear model best approximates yield growth. Our findings reveal that, at an aggregate level, there has been no discernable slowdown in global yield growth over the past six decades. This translates into an average annual yield increase equivalent to nearly 33 kilograms of wheat per hectare. These results suggest that any observed deceleration in specific commodities, regions, or countries, has been offset by gains in others. While these findings are reassuring from a global food supply perspective, caution is warranted about the sustainability of production and the affordability of food. These concerns are particularly relevant as global food demand increases due to population and income growth, and as the pressures from climate change intensify. The study underscores the importance of adopting strategic and sustainable agricultural practices to ensure continued food security in the face of evolving global challenges.

Research on Wildfire and Soil Water: A Bibliometric Analysis from 1990 to 2023

In the context of climate change, wildfires occur more frequently and significantly impact the vegetation–soil–water continuum. Soil water is a critical factor for understanding wildfire occurrence and predicting wildfire hazards. However, there is a lack of specific bibliometric analysis of the research on the mechanisms by which soil water influences wildfire occurrence. Therefore, this study conducted a bibliometric analysis of wildfire and soil water, aiming to understand their relationship, research characteristics, and future development trends. We used the Bibliometrix software package in R 4.4.0, which provides different methods for analyzing bibliometric data. A total of 1585 publications were analyzed from 1990 to 2023. The results of the study showed that the number of publications showed an overall growth trend during the period, with an average annual increase rate of 4.4%. The average annual citations per paper exhibited a pattern of rapid increase, followed by slow growth, and then rapid decrease. Ten highly productive authors in the field contributed 12.2% of the total publications during this period. Over the past 30 years, the University of Aveiro has consistently ranked first in terms of paper quantity. Most of the top ten productive institutions are in the United States, Australia, and several European countries. Fifty-eight countries engage in research related to wildfires and soil water, with close collaboration observed between the United States, Canada, and Spain. The four most frequently used keywords are “wildfire”, “fire”, “water repellency”, and “runoff” (with a total frequency of 1385). Water properties relevant to soil characteristics in the word cloud primarily include hydrophobicity, runoff, erosion, and infiltration. Erosion, wildfires, and runoff are crucial in the field but have yet to receive substantial development. The correlation of post-wildfire soil water properties with infiltration, runoff, and erosion processes is most likely to be addressed in future research. The findings will help researchers assess the post-wildfire disaster chain and its impact on the ecological environment, with clear trends, gaps, and research directions in the areas.