Average Annual Growth Research Articles

Financial Inclusion and its Determinants: Empirical Evidence from South Asia

ABSTRACT: South Asia, the home to around one-fourth of the world's total population, and the fastest-growing region of the world, achieved an annual average GDP growth rate of 6.6 percent in 2015–2019. During the same period, it also demonstrated a modest share of gross domestic savings and fixed capital formation to GDP. The region has also experienced a considerable success in improving its level of financial inclusion. Within a span of only six years, the number of adults having an account in a formal financial institution increased to 38 percentage points in 2017, though large heterogeneity across countries exists. Despite these economic and financial developments, around half of the world's multidimensionally poor people live in this region. The region is also relatively less inclusive than those of high-income countries, as it excluded 30 percent of its adult population from the formal financial system in 2017. To accelerate its ongoing economic development and poverty reduction, further improvement of the level of financial inclusion is a particular concern in South Asia. However, we know very little about factors influencing financial inclusion in this region. In this paper, we examine the determinants of financial inclusion in South Asia using the World Bank's Global Findex database for the year 2017. Our probit estimations show that being a male, richer, more educated, and older are associated with higher levels of formal account and formal saving. While age and education affect formal credit in a similar manner, we find no significant association between gender and income level with formal credit. We also investigate how individual characteristics are associated with the barriers to financial inclusion and find that women exclude themselves from financial inclusion because other family member might have an account. Documentation and having accounts by other family members are the main factors of financial exclusion of the younger people, while cost and religious reasons discourage older people from having a bank account. Finally, we compare the determinants of informal financial services with those of formal financial services. Our findings have certain policy implications to include financially excluded people, i.e. poor, less educated, youth, and women, into financial network vis-à-vis promoting financial inclusion in South Asia.

THE WORLD MARKET OF METAL CASTINGS 2019―2021: COUNTRIES, ALLOYS, TECHNOLOGIES

The analysis of the world market of metal castings in 2019–2021 is presented. Due to the fact that as of January 2022 the publication of the world statistics of the production of metal castings did not take place, an analysis of information was carried out regarding the results in the countries that are part of the global Top-10. Among them are China, India, USA, Germany, Japan, Turkey and Brazil. It is noted that in 2021 in China, 54.05 million tons of castings were produced, which is 4.0% more than in 2020. In terms of cast alloys: gray cast iron (share 41.7%), cast iron with nodular graphite (29.5%), aluminum and magnesium alloys (13.3%) and steel (12.2%). In India, the export of metal castings in terms of value for the period from 2016/2017 financial year (FY) to 2020/2021 F. increased from 2.366 to 2.865 billion USD, i.e. with a CAGR of 3.9%. In the USA for the period from 2013 to 2019 the income of the foundry industry increased from 38.7 to 44.3 billion USD, that is, with an average annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.9%. Under the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic and the slowdown of the economy in 2020. industry revenue decreased to USD 36.7 billion (-17.1% vs. 2019). However, in 2021 the situation improved somewhat ― 43.4 billion USD (18.3% against 2020). In Germany, the production of castings from ferrous metal alloys (gray cast iron, with nodular graphite, malleable and steel) in 2021. amounted to 3.2 million tons, which is 16.4% more than in 2020. At the same time, for the period 2019-2021 production of the specified castings decreased at an average annual rate (CAGR) of -6.0%, and their export ― by -7.0%. In Japan, as a result of the changing economic situation in the world, which was formed after 2019, the production of castings during 2019-2021. is characterized by a downward trend. The production of castings from copper alloys decreased with an average annual rate (CAGR) of -5.6%, castings from aluminum alloys ― -5.1% and castings from iron alloys ― -1.5%. In Turkey in 2021 1.108 million tons of nodular cast iron castings (by 29.6% vs. 2020), 0.921 million tons of gray iron castings (by 49.1%) and 0.279 million tons of steel castings (by 45, 4%). In general, during 2019–2021 the production of castings from ferrous metal alloys in the country increased at an average annual rate (CAGR) of 9.9%. In Brazil, in 2021, foundry enterprises produced 2.5 million tons of castings, which is 21.1% higher than in 2020. At the same time, the production of castings from cast iron increased by 25.5%, from non-ferrous metal alloys ― by 7.0%, and steel ― by 3.9%. In general, during 2019–2021 the production of castings in the country increased at an average annual rate (CAGR) of 3.1%. The presented data indicate that in 2021 the global foundry industry developed in a positive trend. Estimated global production of castings from ferrous and non-ferrous metals by the end of 2021. may amount to 109.2...118.5 million tons against 105.5 million tons in 2020. However, as a result of the war between Russia and Ukraine, a number of negative factors have arisen that will cause a slowdown in foundry production in 2022–2023. The review also presents information about the world’s leading foundry companies, as well as examples of the use of 3-D printing in foundry production in the United States and Great Britain.

Assessment and driving factor of housing vacancies in Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration based on multi-source remote sensing data

As the urbanization rate in the world has increased rapidly, the housing vacancy problem has become serious and attracting more attention. Calculating and analyzing vacant housing can help reduce the wasteful use of resources. This paper measures the housing vacancy rate and housing vacancy stock in the Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration using night-time lighting and land use data. The results show that the average housing vacancy rate in the Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration rose rapidly from 14.68% in 2000 to 29.71% in 2015 before declining slowly to 29.49% in 2020. Since urban population growth is lower than the housing construction rate, the average annual growth of housing vacancy stock between 2000 and 2020 exceeds 3 million square meters in megacities and is around 1–2 million square meters in large and medium-sized cities. The vacant housing has caused considerable waste of housing resources. The driving factors of the housing vacancy were further analyzed using the LMDI decomposition method. Results indicate that the economic development level is the most significant driving factor of the vacant housing stock. In addition, the value effect of unit floor areas is the major driving factor inhibiting the growth of vacant housing stock, while the decline of unit floor area value is conducive to the reduction of this stock.

PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS OF WIRELES ON THE GROWTH OF USERS OF SEA TRANSPORTATION SERVICES IN HUNIMUA PORT - CENTRAL MALUKU

Hunimua Harbor is the link between Ambon Island and Seram Island. The flow of growth in sea transportation users at Hunimua Port in the last five years has increased. The preliminary analysis of Hunimua Port shows that in 2021 passenger growth is 21%, 2-wheeled vehicle growth is 17%, 4/6-wheeled growth is 24%, and ship visit growth is 5%, respectively, and Berth Occupancy Ratio (BOR) is 72%. The results showed that the average annual load growth over the next ten years was 1.7% for passengers, 1.2% for R-2 vehicles, and 4.5% for R-4/6 vehicles. The Load Factor in 2026 has reached 68%, and in 2031 it has born 67%, which means that the level of demand for ferry transportation has exceeded the available capacity, based on the Regulation of the Minister of Transportation of the Republic of Indonesia Number PM 104 of 2017 concerning the Implementation of Ferry Transportation. The Berth Occupancy Ratio (BOR) value for 2026 = 82%, and in 2031 = 92%. From the percentage of BOR values in table 2.1 based on UNCTAD standards, Hunimua Port should have more than six piers ready to operate in 2026.

Comparison of hospital delivery costs between cesarean section and natural delivery and analysis of influencing factors.

The increasing costs of hospital delivery have increased the economic burden of pregnant women, and the mode of delivery is the main factor affecting the costs of hospital delivery. This study aims to explore the difference in costs between cesarean section and natural delivery, and to provide reference for controlling the increase of hospital delivery costs. The data of inpatient delivery in the Hunan Maternal and Child Health Care Hospital from January 2016 to December 2020 were selected to compare the total inpatient costs and average daily costs of cesarean section and natural delivery. The linear trend model was used to analyze the trend change of inpatient delivery costs and the generalized linear model was used to analyze the influential factors for inpatient delivery costs. The average hospitalization costs of cesarean section (10 447.25 yuan) were higher than that of natural delivery (5 567.95 yuan), and the average daily costs of cesarean section (1 902.57 yuan) were higher than those of natural delivery (1 666.40 yuan). There was no significant increase or decrease in trend for cesarean section, while the average annual growth rate of the costs of natural delivery was 11.79%. The main factors affecting the hospitalization costs of cesarean section and natural delivery included age, occupation, medical insurance, route of admission, length of stay, premature delivery and complications (all P<0.05). The total hospitalization costs and average daily costs of cesarean section are higher than those of natural delivery, but the costs of natural delivery show a faster growth trend, and the hospitalization costs of cesarean section and natural delivery should be controlled by targeted measures.

КАНЦЕРОГЕННІ РИЗИКИ ДЛЯ НАСЕЛЕННЯ МИКОЛАЇВСЬКОЇ ОБЛАСТІ ВІД ТЕХНОГЕННО-ПІДСИЛЕНИХ ПРИРОДНИХ ДЖЕРЕЛ ІОНІЗУЮЧОГО ВИПРОМІНЮВАННЯ

The article highlights the materials of our own research on the assessment of carcinogenic risk from technogenically enhanced natural sources of ionising radiation. The study was carried out for the Mykolaiv region, whose geological features in the north contribute to an increased burden on the population from natural sources of ionising radiation. The study used materials from well-known radioecological and dosimetric studies in the Mykolaiv region. The presence of a carcinogenic risk from ionising radiation sources encountered in everyday life was confirmed. The cancer incidence and mortality rates among the population from different regions of the Mykolaiv region, which differ in the magnitude of the dose load on the population from natural and artificial radiation, were determined and analysed. There is a difference in the average annual growth rates of cancer incidence and mortality for regions with different levels of human exposure to man-made and artificially enhanced sources of ionising radiation of natural origin.

Interrelation of the Radial Increment of Trees with Various Factors

Radial increment objectively reflects the quality of the assimilation apparatus of a woody plant. Its features indicate the influence of various anthropogenic, biotic and abiotic factors as well as the stability of the plant under stress. The aim of this study was to survey the long-term dynamics of the radial growth of six tree species: Betula pendula, Ulmus glabra, Quercus robur, Tilia cordata, Picea abies and Pinus silvestris, depending on the impact of creating a reservoir and the fluctuations of the water level in it. Additionally, another aim was to determine whether there is a dependence between the annual radial increment of these tree species and the change in the temperature factor during the growing season. We studied cores of trees growing in a park on the coast of the Sheksna river, the level of which is regulated by the water level in the Rybinsk Reservoir and changes along with it. This research presents the dynamics of the annual radial growth of Betula pendula over 59 years, Ulmus glabra over 50 years, Quercus robur over 59 years, Tilia cordata over 82 years, Picea abies over 128 years and Pinus silvestris over 125 years. The average annual radial growth decreases in the series Ulmus glabra &gt; Betula pendula, Quercus robur &gt; Tilia cordata &gt; Picea abies &gt; Pinus silvestris. The radial increase does not correlate with the annual water level in the Rybinsk Reservoir. However, years with extreme minimum and maximum reservoir filling affect the radial growth of Quercus robur (r = 0.56) and Tilia cordata (r = 0.52). It was found that after the creation of the reservoir, the radial increment of Picea abies was significantly reduced by 1.10 mm. The clearest dependence of ring width index was obtained for Picea abies on temperature in May (r = −0.30 at p ≤ 0.05) and for Pinus sylvestris on temperature in July (r = −0.25 at p ≤ 0.05). Similarly, a weak correlation of ring width index with temperature in some months was noted for deciduous trees. Picea abies is notable for its particular display of moderate inverse correlation to the radial growths of other trees.

Spatiotemporal evolution and attribution analysis of grassland NPP in the Yellow River source region, China

The protection of the environment and promotion of sustainable development in the Yellow River Basin (YRB) is a major national strategy in China. Madoi County (MC), at the headwaters of the YRB, plays a crucial role in ensuring the ecological security and sustainable development of the middle and lower reaches of the river. Vegetation net primary productivity (NPP) is a critical indicator for assessing the structure and function of the ecosystem. Therefore, studying the spatiotemporal evolutionary characteristics of grassland net primary productivity (GNPP) in MC and its driving mechanisms is of the utmost importance. We employed linear regression analysis, optimal parameters-based geographical detector (OPGD), multiscale geographic weighted regression (MGWR), and residual analysis to investigate the spatiotemporal change of GNPP in MC under the influence of climate change (CC) and policies in different periods based on MOD17A3 NPP data. Additionally, we explored the natural and anthropogenic factors affecting GNPP and their spatiotemporal processes on global and grid scales. Lastly, we quantified the relative contributions of CC and human activity (HA) to the observed changes in GNPP. The results were as follows: 1) GNPP in MC has demonstrated a fluctuating and increasing trend since 2000, with an average annual growth rate of 1.58 gC·m−2·a−1 and a maximum growth rate of 6.29 gC·m−2·a−1 in 2017–2021. 2) Spatial variation in GNPP has been evident since 2000, with a gradual increase in GNPP from the northwest to southeast. Regions with notable increases in grassland were predominantly located in areas with eco-engineering. 3) The OPGD was used to identify key driving factors (DFs), revealing that climate factors had stronger explanatory powers for the GNPP at each phase. MGWR results indicated that the effect of key DFs exhibited clear spatiotemporal heterogeneity. Annual cumulative solar radiation and annual cumulative precipitation had the most significant effect on GNPP. Regions with positive effects (PEs) of grassland area change and grassland cover change were mostly located in eco-engineering zones. The PEs of DFs on GNPP increased. 4) The contribution of CC to GNPP changes and the dominant area share were greater than those of HA. However, areas with PEs of HA increased gradually. The synergies between eco-protection policies and natural regulation are therefore critical to the eco-environmental protection in the YRB.

Supermarket trends for rainbow and steelhead trout products: Evidence from scanner data

Farm-raised trout is the second-largest foodfish sector of United States (U.S.) aquaculture, with the first trout farms established more than a century ago. Given its importance to both U.S. and global aquaculture, there is surprisingly little research on critical markets and marketing for trout in the U.S. Scanner data (AC Nielsen ScanTrack) were used for the time period from September 2016 through August 2021 to compare retail sales of the trout products sold across years at national, regional, and city levels to provide information on sales revenue, volumes sold, and prices. Supermarket sales of trout increased from $100 to $135 million from 2016 to 2021; the average annual growth rate of sales was 8.3%. Trout prices were relatively stable over the study period in contrast to the generally increasing trends for seafood generally. The South Atlantic region was found to be the largest region for trout products and experienced a 13% average annual growth in sales, but the fastest growth rate of sales (15%) was observed in the West North Central region. The two top market regions for trout sales overall were Seattle/Tacoma and Portland Oregon, followed by Atlanta. Seventy-two percent of trout sales were of steelhead trout, with 26% of rainbow trout. Rainbow trout prices increased by 12% annually in contrast to those for steelhead trout that were relatively constant. This study highlighted the complexities of the U.S. retail trout market, with increasing volumes of imported steelhead and rainbow trout capturing the growing market demand for trout. Additional attention is needed to reduce barriers to expansion for U.S. trout farmers. Future studies that measure the substitutability of steelhead for rainbow trout in key markets as well as greater attention to food service sales to restaurants would provide useful marketing information for trout farmers.

Spatiotemporal Evolution of Urban Agglomeration and Its Impact on Landscape Patterns in the Pearl River Delta, China

An urban agglomeration is the engine of regional and national economic growth, but also causes many ecological and environmental issues that emerge from massive land changes. In this study, the spatiotemporal evolution of an urban agglomeration was quantified and its impacts on the urban and regional landscape patterns were evaluated. It showed that the urbanized land area of the Pearl River Delta Urban Agglomeration (PRDUA) in China nearly quadrupled, having linearly increased from 1819.8 km2 to 7092.2 km2 between 1985 and 2015. The average annual growth rate presented a bimodal wave-like pattern through time, indicating that the PRDUA has witnessed two rounds of the urbanization process. The growth modes (e.g., leapfrog, edge-expansion, infilling) were detected and they exhibited co-existing but alternating dominating patterns during urbanization, demonstrating that the spatiotemporal evolution of the urban development of the PRDUA follows the “spiral diffusion-coalescence” hypothesis. The morphology of the PRDUA presented an alternating dispersal-compact pattern over time. The city-level and regional-level landscape patterns changed synchronously with the spatiotemporal evolution of the PRDUA over time. The urbanization of the PRDUA increased both the complexity and aggregation of the landscape, but also resulted in an increasing fragmentation and decreasing connectivity of the natural landscape in the Pearl River Delta region. These findings are helpful for better understanding how urban agglomerations evolve and in providing insights for regional urban planning and sustainable land management.

Research on the coordinated development of cross-border e-commerce and logistics under the background of big data

Abstract Cross-border electronic platform trade is an important embodiment of the digitalization of international trade, with much attention and response to national policies. This is a global business activity in which traders from different countries negotiate and conclude deals online, and the flow of goods is realized through international transportation. Taking the effectiveness of the coordinated development of cross-border trade and international transportation as the direction of exploration, we study the development mechanism of the harmonious, proper coordination, and virtuous cycle of both from the digital background. According to the established model assumptions, based on the principles of science, objectivity, operability, and representativeness, the evaluation system of coordinated development level is constructed, and the subsystem sequential covariate efficacy function and the composite system coordination degree are calculated. From the results of correlation and coordination degree analysis, it shows that the total volume of transactions in this form of trade grows from $1.4 trillion in 2013 to $8.7 trillion in 2020, with an average annual growth rate of 32%. The orderliness of the cross-border logistics subsystem keeps increasing between 2013 and 2020, and the growth rate reached an average of 15.84 %/year. On the whole, the orderliness of each of the two subsystems steadily increases year by year. The resulting coordinated development trend of electronic trade between countries and international transportation coincides with the electronic trade between countries stepping into a brand-new development period, which is sufficient to verify the science and reasonableness of the evaluation system.

Trend of clinical trials of new drugs for rare diseases in China in recent 10 years

BackgroundRare disease is a general term for a disease that affects a small number of people but recognized as a global public health priority. Governments worldwide are paying more and more attention to the academical research and drug investment of rare diseases. The conduct of rare disease clinical trials is still difficult, despite the promotion of government policies and the awakening of social consciousness. In this article, we outlined the characteristics and obstacles of clinical trials of rare diseases in China and expected to provide reference for subsequent clinical trials in this field.ResultsIn recent years, China has made some progress in clinical trials of rare diseases in the past 10 years. There were 481 clinical trials on rare diseases in total, covering more than 10 rare diseases with high incidence. Clinical trial applications on rare diseases for a total of 481 were submitted and with an average annual growth rate of 28.2% from 2013 to 2022. The number of clinical trial application for rare diseases in 2016 dramatically increased by 80% compared to 2015 due to the policy document issued by China for clinical research in rare diseases in 2015. Besides, about 70% of applications registering for clinical trials could recruit subjects as expected. Despite this, the number of clinical trials of rare diseases in China was less compared with the United States, Europe and Japan, and the types of infant drugs were limited to biological products and chemical drugs lacking other new treatments.ConclusionsEfforts have been made in recent years to develop clinical research on rare diseases in China. The number of clinical trials for rare diseases in China was growing steadily every year, which was inseparable from the support of the country, society and rare disease patients. Still, there was a large gap between China and other developed countries in this field and this merit further investigation.

A review of dairy cattle heat stress mitigation in Indonesia.

Indonesia is a tropical country with a hot climate. In tropical nations such as Indonesia, heat stress is a key reason for the reduced productivity of dairy cattle. Heat stress is a combination of internal and external stimuli that affects an animal, raises its body temperature, and causes it to react physiologically. Most Indonesian dairy cattle are Friesian Holstein (FH), imported from European nations with a temperate environment with low temperatures in the range of 5°C-25°C. Indonesia has a tropical climate with a high ambient temperature that can reach 34°C during the day and the local relative humidity varies between 70% and 90%. Temperature and humidity are two microenvironment factors that may impact the production and heat release in FH cattle. More than 98% of the entire dairy cattle population in Indonesia is found on Java Island. On Java Island, there are between 534.22 and 543.55 thousand heads of cattle, while the dairy cattle population outside Java Island is just 6.59 thousand heads of cattle. The milk output climbs by an average of 3.34% per year, or approximately 909.64 thousand tons and the average annual growth in whole milk consumption was 0.19 L/capita. Indonesian cow milk output has been unable to keep pace with the country's increasing demand. This study aimed to review the strategies to mitigate heat stress in FH dairy cattle in Indonesia.

Spatial and temporal trends and drivers of fractional vegetation cover in Heilongjiang Province, China during 1990-2020.

Fractional vegetation cover (FVC) is a quantitative indicator for vegetation growth conditions and ecosystem change. Clarifying the spatial and temporal trends and driving factors of FVC is an important research content of global and regional ecological environment. Based on Google Earth Engine (GEE) cloud computing platform, we estimated FVC in Heilongjiang Province from 1990 to 2020 using the pixel dichotomous model. We analyzed the temporal and spatial trends and drivers of FVC using Mann-Kendall mutation test, Sen's slope analysis with Mann-Kendall significance test, correlation analysis, and structural equation model. The results showed that the estimated FVC based on the pixel dichotomous model had high accuracy (R2>0.7, root mean square error <0.1, relative root mean square error <14%). From 1990 to 2020, the annual average FVC in Heilongjiang was 0.79, with a fluctuating upward trend (0.72-0.85) and an average annual growth rate of 0.4%. The annual average FVC at the municipal administrative districts level also showed different levels of increase of FVC. The area with extremely high FVC dominated the Heilongjiang Province with a gradual increase proportion. The area with increasing trend of FVC accounted for 67.4% of the total area, whereas the area with decreasing trend only accounted for 26.2%, and the rest remained unchanged. The correlation of human activity factor on annual average FVC was higher than that of growing season monthly average meteorological factor. The human activity factor was the main driver for FVC change in Heilongjiang Province, followed by land use type. The total effect of monthly average meteorological factor during the growing season on FVC change was negative. The results would serve as technical support for long-term FVC monitoring and driving force analysis in Heilongjiang Province, and provide a reference for ecological environment restoration and protection, as well as the formulation of related land use policy.

Spatio-temporal Heterogeneity in the Performance of Rural Revitalization in Chifeng City of China: Based on a Range-wide EBM-GML Model

To solve the problems of rural revitalization performance research, a quantitative model of non-oriented range wide EBM (Epsilon-Based Measure)-GML (Global-Malmquist) based on VRS (Variable Returns to Scale) conditions including non-desired outputs is constructed. A comprehensive spatio-temporal heterogeneity research index system of rural revitalization performance is also constructed. Taking the typical rural in Chifeng City as an example, the panel data from 2016-2020 are selected for empirical analysis, the conclusions and countermeasures are suggested as follows: 1) In general, the rural revitalization performance of Chifeng City increases significantly during the five-year period, with significant spatio-temporal heterogeneity. The overall analysis shows that the overall performance value of rural revitalization in Chifeng City is 0.683 from 2016 to 2020. The highest performance value is 1 and the lowest performance value is 0.389. The performance growth rate increases year by year, with an average annual growth rate of 4.46%. 2) From 2016 to 2020, the GML index of rural revitalization performance in Chifeng City is 1.174, show ing an increasing trend. Based on the range of change of GML index, Chifeng City can be classified into three types: Continuous improvement, fluctuating improvement and fluctuating decline. 3) Niujiayingzi, Guandongche, Zhaidamu, and Qiangangtai rural have the highest degree of technological progress.

Принципы построения системы поддержки принятия решений при управлении рисками электроустановок

The importance and timeliness of the development of effective measures to prevent dangerous man-made situations (HAS), leading to accidents in power supply systems, electrical injuries to personnel, fires and electromagnetic radiation, are due to the increase in risks during the operation of 380/220 V electrical installations at production facilities and the infrastructure of rural settlements. The average annual growth of social losses and material damages is currently more than 20%. Over the past two decades, about 10 million people have suffered from OSA in Russia, of which 600 thousand people died during this period. The total material damage is comparable to the average gross domestic product in the Russian Federation. The accumulated experience shows that the most effective way to reduce anthropogenic hazards is their prevention, which is based on monitoring, forecasting, managing and optimizing risks. At the same time, the lack of an effective system for collecting and summarizing data on adverse risk factors, their identification, hinders the prompt adoption of management decisions aimed at preventing the occurrence of emergencies. Keywords: COMPETITOR, STATE AGRARIAN UNIVERSITY OF THE NORTHERN TRANS-URALS

Scientometric analysis of lipid metabolism in breast neoplasm: 2012-2021.

Introduction: In recent years, more and more studies have proved that lipid metabolism plays an essential role in breast cancer's proliferation and metastasisand also has a specific significance in predicting survival. Methods: This paper collected data from 725 publications related to lipid metabolism in breast neoplasm from 2012 to 2021 through the Web of Science Core Collection database. Bibliometrix, VOSviewer, and CiteSpace were used for the scientometrics analysis of countries, institutions, journals, authors, keywords, etc. Results: The number of documents published showed an increasing trend, with an average annual growth rate of 14.49%. The United States was the most productive country (n = 223, 30.76%). The journals with the largest number of publications are mostly from developed countries. Except for the retrieved topics, "lipid metabolism" (n = 272) and "breast cancer" (n = 175), the keywords that appeared most frequently were "expression" (n = 151), "fatty-acid synthase" (n = 78), "growth" (n = 72), "metabolism" (n = 67) and "cells" (n = 66). Discussion: These findings and summaries help reveal the current research status and clarify the hot spots in this field.

The Social Cost of Carbon When We Wish for Full-Path Robustness

We compute the social cost of carbon (SCC) when decision makers want robust estimates in the face of deep (or “Knightian”) uncertainty. We introduce the notion of full-path accumulated robust preferences from stochastic control theory to an integrated assessment model. Robust preferences are appropriate for analyzing climate-related problems because, given the large uncertainty in climate science, they enable decision makers to attain solutions that are robust to a wide range of climate change scenarios. We solve the resulting model, which includes uncertainty about climate change and the ensuing economic damage and show the existence of optimal solutions and time-consistent optimal deterministic Markov policies. Additionally, we also prove that the standard Hansen–Sargent recursive utility provides an upper bound of this full-path utility. In our baseline model specification, we find that the year 2020’s optimal SCC is US$162 per tCO2with an average annual growth rate of 2.5%, setting the world on a 1.37°C path, which requires full decarbonization by 2068. We introduce the notion of the SCC robustness premium, which we define as the additional SCC price tag for robustness. For a plausible range of preference parameters, the SCC robustness premium in 2020 is between US$1.41 and US$25.89 per tCO2with US$2.20 per tCO2in our baseline calibration. Over time, this premium grows significantly. The forecasts of our model facilitate managerial decision making during the world’s transition from a carbon- and emission-intensive economy to a regenerative economy. The high estimates for the SCC predict drastic rises in emission costs for high-emission industries.This paper was accepted by Elke Weber, Special Section of Management Science on Business and Climate Change.Funding: Y. Zhao and T. S. Lontzek acknowledge funding by the German Ministry of Research and Education (BMBF), Project CDR: “DAC-Tales”, under [Grant 01LS2196A].Supplemental Material: The data files are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2023.4736 .

Modification of MEPDG rutting model based on RIOHTrack data

ABSTRACT Rutting is one of the most prevalent road distresses in asphalt pavement (AP), it is therefore critical to accurately predict the development of rutting to guide pavement design and maintenance. Based on the measured rutting data obtained from the RIOHTrack in China, the the most widely used MEPDG rutting model is evaluated for its applicability. Due to the original MEPDG rutting model being highly sensitive to a rapid increase of the number of load repetitions (NLR), a modified MEPDG rutting model is proposed by introducing a growth coefficient ( α ) for the NLR to reduce the effect of the rapid increase of NLR on the rutting prediction. The applicability of the modified rutting model is then verified by various pavement structures tested in the RIOHTrack, and the value of coefficient ( α ) based on the different annual average growth rates of traffic volume is provided for facilitating application. Moreover, the growth rate of the flow ruts is indicated as the critical parameter to describe the rutting development and used for rutting prediction, and the correlations between the pavement structures and the parameter are analyzed. The findings can guide for predicting the rut depth of the asphalt pavement within the whole service life.

Carbon Emissions from Agricultural Inputs in China over the Past Three Decades

Global warming has become one of the major threats to the security of human survival, security, and sustainable development. Agricultural production has been widely suspected as one of the main sources of anthropogenic carbon emissions. Analyzing the changing characteristics and influencing factors of agricultural carbon emissions is of great significance for the mitigation of global climate change and the sustainable development in agriculture. Taking China, a large agricultural country, as an example, this study used the empirical model to quantify carbon emissions from agricultural inputs from 1991 to 2019, and analyzed the driving factors using ridge regression. We found that agricultural carbon emissions in China have been on the rise in the past 30 years, but at a markedly slower pace. From 2008 to 2019, the average annual growth rate of agricultural carbon emissions was 1.47%, down significantly from 2.92% between 1991 and 2007. The carbon emissions per unit of planting area showed an overall increasing trend, which grew from 179.35 t ce/km2 to 246.26 t ce/km2, with an average annual growth rate of 1.13%. The carbon emissions per unit of agricultural output mainly showed a decreasing trend, which decreased from 0.52 kg ce/CNY to 0.06 kg ce/CNY, with an average annual rate of change of −7.42%. China’s agricultural carbon emissions were closely related to macro-policies. Fertilizer inputs, agricultural industry structure, and energy use intensity were significantly positively correlated with carbon emission intensity. The degree of urban feedback to rural areas, public investment in agriculture, and large-scale planting were significantly negatively correlated with carbon emission intensity, but the impacts of these factors had a “lag effect”. In order to reduce carbon emissions from agriculture and promote development in green agriculture, we suggest that the government should further increase the degree of urban feedback to rural and public investment in the agricultural sector. In addition, large-scale agricultural production should be encouraged to increase resource efficiency and reduce carbon emissions.