Autoregressive Latent Trajectory Model Research Articles

Indirect aggression, anxiety, and empathy: Disaggregating between and within person longitudinal associations during childhood and adolescence.

Although indirectly aggressive behavior and anxiety symptoms can co-occur, it is unclear whether anxiety is an antecedent or outcome of indirect aggression at the individual level and whether other personality traits can contribute to these longitudinal associations. Therefore, the between- and within-person associations among indirect aggression, anxiety symptoms, and empathic concern were examined across adolescence from ages 11 to 16 in a cohort of individuals followed annually (N = 700; 52.9% girls; 76.0% White) controlling for direct aggression and demographic variables. Results of autoregressive latent trajectory models with structured residuals supported an acting out model at the within-person level. Specifically, anxiety symptoms positively predicted indirect aggression and indirect aggression negatively predicted empathic concern at each adjacent time point. These findings suggest that methods of reducing worries about the self and increasing healthy self-confidence could prevent indirect aggression and help build concern and compassion toward others.

In Defence of Ordinary Help: Estimating the effect of Early Help/Family Support Spending on Children in Need Rates in England using ALT-SR

AbstractRandomised controlled trials are often inappropriate for many forms of preventative children’s services; as such, observational studies using administrative data can be valuable for evidence-based policymaking. However, estimates of effectiveness can be confounded by differences in thresholds of intervention and national policies that exert pressure on local trends. This study adjusted for these factors using methods developed in clinical psychology to control for individual traits and developmental trajectories, Autoregressive Latent Trajectory Models with Structured Residuals, to analyse the relationship between local authority preventative spending and Children in Need (CIN) rates in England. Higher spending was associated with significant decreases in CIN rates between 2010/11 and 2014/15, but not from 2014/15 onwards. In the first half of the decade, 1% increases in expenditure were associated with between 0.07% and 0.157% decreases in CIN rates. Based on average local authority spending cuts, this translates to an additional 13,000 to 16,500 children and young people put or kept at risk of developmental or health impairments nationally for each year between 2011 and 2015. These findings highlight the potential of early help/family support policies and concerns around how their effectiveness has changed consequent to prolonged austerity and a deliberate policy focus on ‘what works’.

Influences of target congruence and lifestyles on victimization trajectories: An Autoregressive Latent Trajectory Modeling approach to overlap between bullying and victimization

IntroductionRelative to the general victimization literature, a small body of literature has examined the longitudinal process of overlap between bullying perpetration and bullying victimization. To address this gap, this study assesses the dynamic process of bullying perpetration and victimization from a developmental perspective and examine the applicability of target congruence and lifestyle-routine activities approach. MethodsUsing data from 2,378 Korean youths collected from 2012 to 2016, the current study has conducted a Parallel Process Latent Growth Curve Modeling (PPLGCM) analysis to examine co-development and sequentially contingent processes of bullying and victimization, and Autoregressive Latent Trajectory Modeling (ALTM) to examine the time-lagged effect of bullying on victimization. ResultsResults from the PPLGCM revealed a significant and positive relationship between the initial levels of bullying and victimization as well as a reciprocal and cumulative influence over time. The ALTM analysis indicated that increased victimization in the previous year was associated with increased victimization in the following year. Further, time-concurrent and time-lagged effects of bullying on victimization were significant and positive. Finally, target congruence and risky lifestyle variables predicted the longitudinal process of victimization, indicating the cross-cultural generalizability of the theory. ConclusionsThe findings offer support for a complex and dynamic relationship between bullying and victimization, and thus call for developmentally sensitive prevention strategies.

Interplay between self-compassion and affect during Mindfulness-Based Compassionate Living for recurrent depression: An Autoregressive Latent Trajectory analysis

BackgroundThe current study aimed to investigate the possible interplay between self-compassion and affect during Mindfulness-Based Compassionate Living (MBCL) in recurrently depressed individuals. MethodsData was used from a subsample of a parallel-group randomized controlled trial investigating the efficacy of MBCL in recurrently depressed adults (n = 104). Self-reports of self-compassion and positive/negative affect were obtained at the start of each of the eight MBCL sessions. ResultsBivariate Autoregressive Latent Trajectory (ALT) modeling showed that, when looking at the interplay between self-compassion and positive/negative affect on a session-to-session basis, no significant reciprocal cross-lagged effects between self-compassion and positive affect were found. Although there were no cross-lagged effects from negative affect to self-compassion, higher levels of self-compassion at each session did predict lower levels of negative affect at the subsequent session (bSC(t-1),NA(t) = -0.182, s.e. = 0.076, p = .017). ConclusionsThe current study shows that increases in self-compassion are followed by decreases in negative affect in MBCL for depression.

Developmental Cascades of Hostile Attribution Bias, Aggressive Behavior, and Peer Victimization in Preadolescence

ABSTRACT The current research used longitudinal data from the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development Study of Early Child Care and Youth Development (N = 1104) to examine the developmental cascades of hostile attribution bias, aggressive behavior, and peer victimization in preadolescence. With the use of autoregressive latent trajectory model, this study disaggregated the between- and within-person effects. Between-person effects confirmed that hostile attribution bias, aggressive behavior, and peer victimization were positively associated with each other. Within-person effects showed that an increase from one’s own typical growth trajectory of hostile attribution bias was predictive of a subsequent decrease from the individual’s own trajectory of aggressive behavior; an increase from one’s own typical growth trajectory of aggressive behavior was predictive of a subsequent decrease from the individual’s own trajectory of peer victimization; an increase from one’s own typical growth trajectory of peer victimization was predictive of a subsequent increase from the individual’s own trajectory of hostile attribution bias. Implications for developmental cascade models, progressions, and preventive interventions were discussed.

Trajectories of Subjective Health: Testing Longitudinal Models for Self-rated Health From Adolescence to Midlife.

Self-rated health (SRH) is ubiquitous in population health research. It is one of the few consistent health measures in longitudinal studies. Yet, extant research offers little guidance on its longitudinal trajectory. The literature on SRH suggests several possibilities, including SRH as (1) a more fixed, longer-term view of past, present, and anticipated health; (2) a spontaneous assessment at the time of the survey; (3) a result of lagged effects from prior responses; (4) a function of life course processes; and (5) a combination of the preceding. Different perspectives suggest different longitudinal models, but evidence is lacking about which model best captures SRH trajectory. Using data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health and the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, we employ structural equation modeling to correct for measurement error and identify the best-fitting, theoretically guided models describing SRH trajectories. Results support a hybrid model that combines the lagged effect of SRH with the enduring perspectives, fitted with a type of autoregressive latent trajectory (ALT) model. This model structure consistently outperforms other commonly used models and underscores the importance of accounting for lagged effects combined with time-invariant effects in longitudinal studies of SRH. Interestingly, comparisons of this latent, time-invariant autoregressive model across gender and racial/ethnic groups suggest that there are differences in starting points but less variability in SRH trajectories from early life into adulthood.

The epigenetic etiology of cardiovascular disease in a longitudinal Swedish twin study

BackgroundStudies on DNA methylation have the potential to discover mechanisms of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. However, the role of DNA methylation in CVD etiology remains unclear.ResultsWe performed an epigenome-wide association study (EWAS) on CVD in a longitudinal sample of Swedish twins (535 individuals). We selected CpGs reaching the Bonferroni-corrected significance level (2 times 10–7) or the top-ranked 20 CpGs with the lowest P values if they did not reach this significance level in EWAS analysis associated with non-stroke CVD, overall stroke, and ischemic stroke, respectively. We further applied a bivariate autoregressive latent trajectory model with structured residuals (ALT-SR) to evaluate the cross-lagged effect between DNA methylation of these CpGs and cardiometabolic traits (blood lipids, blood pressure, and body mass index). Furthermore, mediation analysis was performed to evaluate whether the cross-lagged effects had causal impacts on CVD. In the EWAS models, none of the CpGs we selected reached the Bonferroni-corrected significance level. The ALT-SR model showed that DNA methylation levels were more likely to predict the subsequent level of cardiometabolic traits rather than the other way around (numbers of significant cross-lagged paths of methylation → trait/trait → methylation were 84/4, 45/6, 66/1 for the identified three CpG sets, respectively). Finally, we demonstrated significant indirect effects from DNA methylation on CVD mediated by cardiometabolic traits.ConclusionsWe present evidence for a directional association from DNA methylation on cardiometabolic traits and CVD, rather than the opposite, highlighting the role of epigenetics in CVD development.

Study length, change process separability, parameter estimation, and model evaluation in hybrid autoregressive-latent growth structural equation models for longitudinal data

Hybrid autoregressive-latent growth structural equation models for longitudinal data represent a synthesis of the autoregressive and latent growth modeling frameworks. Although these models are conceptually powerful, in practice they may struggle to separate autoregressive and growth-related processes during estimation. This confounding of change processes may, in turn, increase the risk of the models producing deceptively compelling results (i.e., models that fit excellently by conventional standards despite highly biased parameter estimates). Including additional time points provides models with more raw information about change, which could help improve process separability and the accuracy of parameter estimates to a degree. This study thus used Monte Carlo simulation methods to examine associations between change process separability, the number of time points in a model, and the consequences of misspecification, across three prominent hybrid autoregressive-latent growth models: the Latent Change Score model (LCS), the Autoregressive Latent Trajectory Model (ALT), and the Latent Growth Model with Structured Residuals (LGM-SR). Results showed that including more time points increased process separability and robustness to misspecification in the LCS and ALT, but typically not at a rate that would be practically feasible for most developmental researchers. Alternatively, regardless of how many time points were in the model process separability was high in the LGM-SR, as was robustness to misspecification. Overall, results suggest that the LGM-SR is the most effective of the three hybrid autoregressive-latent growth models considered here.

Examining the Directionality of the Relationship Between Maternal Warmth and Early School-Age Anxiety.

Maternal warmth has been identified as a contributing factor to the development of child anxiety; however, no studies to date have examined observed maternal warmth longitudinally in this relationship. The present study addressed this knowledge gap by examining the simultaneous development of maternal warmth and child anxiety over time (between-person effects using latent growth curve modeling) and the directionality of associations (within-person effects using autoregressive latent trajectory modeling). Participants included 753 mothers and children. Between-person effects indicated that lower initial levels of anxiety were related to greater levels of maternal warmth over time. Within-person effects showed that maternal warmth in grade 1 predicted subsequent decreases in child anxiety in grade 2 (i.e., a parent effect). Present findings demonstrate the importance of maternal warmth in the early school-age years for decreasing subsequent child anxiety.

Longitudinal Associations Between Household Labor Division Inequity and Conflict Among Newlywed Couples

The division of household labor among couples is a frequently occurring topic of conflict. The present investigation examined longitudinal associations between inequities in household labor divisions and conflict about those divisions in 219 newly married heterosexual couples without children enrolled in the Louisiana Marriage Matters Panel Survey of Newlyweds. We used autoregressive latent trajectory models across three time points spanning approximately 3.5 years. More conflict about labor inequity was related to declines in household labor inequity by the next wave. Additionally, greater household labor inequity was related to declines in conflict by the next wave. We discuss findings in terms of the demand-response hypothesis and ideological reasons why higher labor inequities may relate to less conflict.

How smartphone use becomes problematic: Application of the ALT-SR model to study the predicting role of personality traits

Smartphones have become a ubiquitous part of adolescents' life, and studies have repeatedly revealed a positive association between smartphone use (SU) and problematic smartphone use (PSU). However, longitudinal research investigating the reciprocal relationship among SU and PSU during adolescence are scarce, and studies that take into consideration personality traits as predisposing factors are lacking. This study used survey data collected annually over four years from 855 adolescents aged 11 at time 1 and distributed across 37 Swiss middle schools. An Autoregressive Latent Trajectory Model with Structured Residuals (ALT-SR model) was used to investigate between- and within-person effects over time. Additionally, gender and personality traits, measured according to the recently developed DSM-5 domains, were entered as predictors of the latent intercepts and slopes. The final model showed that, at the within-person level, SU significantly increased PSU at all four time points, but not viceversa. At the between-person level, the personality traits antagonism and negative affect significantly and positively predicted the latent intercepts, whereas being female, psychoticism, and disinhibition significantly and positively influenced the latent slopes. This study highlights the importance of investigating predisposing factors of PSU in adolescence, using advance statistical approaches. The results are discussed against the background of the I-PACE model on predisposing factors and mechanisms that lead to addictive behaviors such as PSU.

Developmental Cascades from Aggression to Internalizing Problems via Peer and Teacher Relationships from Early to Middle Adolescence

Previous research has provided evidence for developmental cascades between externalizing and internalizing problems via mechanisms such as peer and academic problems; however, there remains a need to illuminate other key mediating processes that could serve as intervention targets. This study, thus, evaluated whether developmental associations between aggression and internalizing are mediated by teacher—as well as peer—relationships. Using data from z-proso, a longitudinal study of Swiss youth (n = 1523; 785 males), an autoregressive latent trajectory model with structured residuals (ALT-SR) was fit over ages 11, 13, and 15 to examine within-person developmental links between aggression, internalizing problems, and the mediating role of peer and teacher relationships, while disaggregating between- and within-person effects. Teacher and peer relationships did not play a role in the progression of externalizing to internalizing problems or vice versa, however, teacher and peer relationships showed a protective effect against developing internalizing problems at ages 13. The results suggest that good quality relationships with teachers in early adolescence can help prevent internalizing problems from developing.

Reciprocal Relationships Between Exposure to Community Violence and Sleep Problems Across Adolescence

Urban adolescents experience high rates of exposure to community violence, which is associated with sleep problems. However, less is known about the prospective relationships between community violence exposure and sleep problems across adolescence. This study investigated reciprocal relationships between community violence exposure and sleep problems across early, middle, and late adolescence. Participants included 84 urban adolescents (50% females, 95% African Americans) who reported on their community violence exposure and sleep problems at mean ages 13, 16, and 17. Results from an autoregressive latent trajectory model with structured residuals showed that exposure to community violence at age 13 predicted more sleep problems at age 16, but violence exposure at age 16 did not predict sleep problems at age 17. Sleep problems did not predict community violence exposure over time. These results point to early adolescence as a vulnerable period for the development of sleep problems in youth exposed to community violence.

How do classroom behaviors predict longitudinal reading achievement? A conditional autoregressive latent growth analysis

Elementary students’ ability to regulate classroom behavior is believed to play an important role in their reading ability. To date, there is some evidence articulating this relationship, but much of the research has not addressed how classroom behavior may predict the longitudinal reading achievement. The present study used data from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study—Kindergarten Class of 2010–2011 to examine the associations of self-control, attentional focusing, and externalizing problem behaviors with reading development for elementary students from kindergarten through fourth grade. A combination of the latent growth model and the autoregressive model – the Autoregressive Latent Trajectory model is applied to describe children's increasing but later leveling off reading growth. Results from the Autoregressive Latent Trajectory model conditional on classroom behaviors show that they have a mix of positive and negative associations with reading growth. Further, a multigroup analysis reveals the gender differences in such associations. Implications for educators, researchers and policy makers are discussed.

Developmental relations between ADHD symptoms and bullying perpetration and victimization in adolescence.

It has previously been hypothesized that individuals with elevated attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) symptoms are at greater risk of bullying perpetration and victimization. Using autoregressive latent trajectory models with structured residuals (ALT-SR) and four waves (ages 11, 13, 15, and 17) of longitudinal data from the normative z-proso study (n = 1526, 52% male), we evaluated the developmental relations between ADHD and bullying using both self- and teacher-reported ADHD symptom data. Analyses suggested that ADHD symptoms primarily increase the risk of bullying perpetration, with a within-person effect of ADHD symptoms on bullying perpetration symptoms identified across ages 13-15 (β = .13) and ages 15-17 (β = .19) based on self-reported ADHD symptoms and a similar effect identified across ages 11-13 (β = .24) and 13-15 (β = .29) based on teacher-reported inattention symptoms. There were also some indications of reciprocal effects and effects involving victimization that merit further exploration in future research. Results imply that the content of bullying intervention and prevention programs should take account of ADHD symptoms to ensure that those with elevated symptoms can benefit as much as their typically developing peers. This will involve addressing bullying perpetration that may reflect impulsive/reactive aggression and impaired social skills rather than instrumental aggression. Further, programs should go beyond classical curriculum/classroom-based delivery to ensure that individuals with elevated ADHD symptoms can be successfully engaged.

Transactional effects between parental sensitivity and child social adjustment: Specifying trait-state aspects of parenting.

This study examined the reciprocal relations among maternal sensitivity, paternal sensitivity, and children's social adjustment from 54 months of age to 5th grade. Using a subsample from the National Institute of Child Health and Development Study of Early Child Care and Youth Development (N = 829), we employed an autoregressive latent trajectory model with structured residuals (ALT-SR) to unpack the trait and state aspects in the relations between parental sensitivity and children's social adjustment. After taking into account trait factors, among all the significant autoregressive and cross-lagged paths originally found in the autoregressive cross-lagged panel models, less than one third of them remained significant in the ALT-SR model. More specifically, in the ALT-SR model, more parent-driven effects were observed for fathers and child-driven effects were detected between children's social skills and fathers' sensitivity. Taken together, it appears that parents' central tendency to be sensitive in the long term is a stable trait, and experiences less state-level fluctuations, and these appear to matter more for children's general tendency to show well adjustment as opposed to change over time. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2020 APA, all rights reserved).

Reciprocal Developmental Relations Between ADHD and Anxiety in Adolescence: A Within-Person Longitudinal Analysis of Commonly Co-Occurring Symptoms

Objective: Significant anxiety often occurs in the presence of ADHD symptoms; however, the reasons are not well understood. We aimed to establish whether the relations between ADHD symptons and anxiety are bidirectional or unidirectional. Method: Weexamined the developmental relations between ADHD and anxiety symptoms across adolescence (ages 13, 15, and 17) in a community-ascertained, normative longitudinal sample of 1,483 youth (52% male). We used an autoregressive latent trajectory model with structured residuals (ALT-SR) to examine within-person developmental relations between ADHD and anxiety symptoms to determine whether it is ADHD symptoms that lead to anxiety symptoms and/or the reverse. Results: Results suggested that there are reciprocal within-person developmental relations between ADHD and anxiety symptoms. Conclusions: Our findings support the recommendation that targeting ADHD symptoms can be fruitful for addressing anxiety symptoms; however, they suggest that targeting anxiety symptoms may also benefit ADHD symptoms. Results also underline the importance of careful assessment for underlying ADHD symptoms among adolescents presenting with anxiety.

Development of arithmetic fluency: A direct effect of reading fluency?

The present longitudinal study investigated the developmental trajectories of addition, subtraction, and multiplication fluency; their relationships to general cognitive functions; and potential interrelations between reading fluency and growth in arithmetic fluency for different operations. The central prediction was that measures of arithmetic fluency for different operations would be differentially related to reading fluency because of variations in the timing and format of arithmetic instruction. Panel data on children’s arithmetic fluency and reading fluency performance were collected twice per year in third, fourth, and fifth grades (N = 449). For each operation tested (addition, subtraction, and multiplication), a series of bivariate (reading/arithmetic) latent growth and autoregressive latent trajectory models were constructed. After controlling for background cognitive variables, significant short- and long-term relationships to reading fluency were observed only for multiplication fluency. Specifically, reading fluency in early third grade predicted both immediately subsequent multiplication fluency scores and the slope of growth in multiplication fluency across subsequent grade levels. Exploratory analyses of covariate effects showed that whole number line estimation accuracy was related to growth in multiplication and subtraction fluency, while general verbal ability had a unique relationship to subtraction fluency that was not observed for either addition or multiplication. Overall, results indicate that children’s level of reading fluency and differences among arithmetic operations should be considered both when conducting research and when making instructional decisions about how to build students’ arithmetic fluency. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2019 APA, all rights reserved)

COGNITIVE AND HEARING IMPAIRMENTS IN OLDER ADULTS: EVIDENCE FROM THE HEALTH AND RETIREMENT STUDY

As the number of older adults increases, increased prevalence of cognitive and sensory impairments pose growing public health challenges. Research on the relationship between hearing impairment and cognition, however, is minimal and has yielded mixed results, with some studies finding that hearing impairment is associated with cognitive decline, and others reporting that the association is weak or non-existent. Most of this research has been conducted outside of the U.S., and the few U.S.-based longitudinal studies have relied mostly on small, non-representative samples involving short follow-up periods. Further, despite known gendered patterns in cognitive and hearing impairments, no studies to date have examined whether the relationship between the two varies by gender. Our study addresses these weaknesses in the literature by utilizing nine waves of the Health and Retirement Study (1998-2014; n=14,169), a large, nationally representative, longitudinal study that facilitates examination of long-term interrelationships between hearing and cognitive impairments. In this study, we use autoregressive latent trajectory (ALT) methods to model: 1) the relationship between hearing impairment and cognitive decline, and 2) sex differences in the relationship. ALT models enable us to determine whether hearing impairment and cognitive impairment are associated, net of their common tendency simply to co-trend with age. Results indicate that hearing and cognitive impairments are strongly interrelated processes that trend together over time. Moreover, hearing impairment has an increasing impact on cognitive impairment across age while the effect of cognitive impairment on hearing impairment levels out over time. Sex differences in these patterns are discussed.

Within-person analysis of developmental cascades between externalising and internalising problems.

In a large body of previous research, cross-lagged panel models (CLPMs) have been used to provide empirical support for developmental models that posit a cascade from externalising-to-internalising problems. These developmental models, however, arguably refer to within-person processes whereas CLPMs provide a difficult-to-interpret blend of within- and between- person effects. We used autoregressive latent trajectory models with structured residuals (ALT-SR) to evaluate whether there is evidence for externalising-to-internalising cascades at the within-person level when disaggregating between- and within- person effects. We used eight waves of data (age 7-15) from the Zurich Project on Social Development from Childhood to Adulthood (z-proso). ALT-SR fit better than the corresponding CLPMs. Using an ALT-SR, we found evidence for externalising-to-internalising cascades, consistent with previous CLPM studies. However, we also found some evidence for effects in the ALT-SR that were not apparent in the CLPM, including a negative effect of externalising on internalising problems in adolescence. In addition, a negative effect of internalising on externalising problems in adolescence was found in both the CLPM and ALT-SR. Within-person results were largely consistent with previous evidence from CLPMs; however, at the within-person level, externalising and internalising may negatively influence one another in adolescence.