Monetary Policy Autonomy Research Articles

Welfare Implications of Currency Integration: Labor Mobility and Pricing-to-Market

In this paper, we examine the welfare cost of renouncing monetary policy autonomy in a model that includes labor mobility and pricing-to-market (PTM) behavior in firms. We find that renouncing monetary policy autonomy becomes a cost of currency integration when the consumption basket weights differ between candidate countries and when country-specific total factor productivity (TFP) shocks hit economies, even when the union fulfills the classic optimum currency area theory of labor mobility. We also found that a firm's PTM behavior has a significant effect on the welfare implications of currency integration combined with labor mobility. For instance, currency integration does not produce greater welfare losses in the PTM case (where the labor input weights differ across member countries and asymmetric labor disutility shocks occur), although greater welfare losses arise in the case of producer currency pricing.

Monetary and Fiscal Policies and the Dynamics of the Yield Curve in Morocco

We estimate the latent factors that underlie the dynamics of the sovereign bond yield curve in Morocco during 2004–14 based on the Dynamic Nelson-Siegel model. On this basis, we explore the interaction between macroeconomic variables and the yield curve, which is of direct relevance to macroeconomic policy-making. In Morocco’s context, we find that tighter monetary policy increases short-end maturities, and that the impact is small and short-lived. Economic activity is also briefly but significantly impacted, suggesting that even under a pegged exchange rate, monetary policy autonomy and effectiveness can be increased through greater central bank independence. Fiscal improvements significantly lower yield levels. Policy conclusions are that improvement in the fiscal and monetary policy frameworks, as well as greater financial sector development and inclusion, could benefit Morocco and strengthen the transmission mechanisms and effectiveness of macroeconomic policies.

Global Financial Conditions and Monetary Policy Autonomy

Is the Mundell-Fleming trilemma alive and well? International co-movement of asset prices takes place alongside synchronized business cycles, complicating the identification of financial spillovers and assessments of monetary policy autonomy. A benchmark for interest rate comovement is to impose the null hypothesis that central banks respond only to the outlook for domestic inflation and output. We show that common approaches used to estimate interest rate spillovers tend to understate the degree of monetary autonomy enjoyed by small open economies with flexible exchange rates. We propose an empirical strategy that partials out those spillovers that are associated with impaired monetary autonomy. Using this approach, we revisit the predictions of the trilemma and find more compelling evidence that flexible exchange rates deliver monetary autonomy than prior work has suggested.

Monetary and Fiscal Policies and the Dynamics of the Yield Curve in Morocco

We estimate the latent factors that underlie the dynamics of the sovereign bond yield curve in Morocco during 2004–14 based on the Dynamic Nelson-Siegel model. On this basis, we explore the interaction between macroeconomic variables and the yield curve, which is of direct relevance to macroeconomic policy-making. In Morocco’s context, we find that tighter monetary policy increases short-end maturities, and that the impact is small and short-lived. Economic activity is also briefly but significantly impacted, suggesting that even under a pegged exchange rate, monetary policy autonomy and effectiveness can be increased through greater central bank independence. Fiscal improvements significantly lower yield levels. Policy conclusions are that improvement in the fiscal and monetary policy frameworks, as well as greater financial sector development and inclusion, could benefit Morocco and strengthen the transmission mechanisms and effectiveness of macroeconomic policies.

Global Financial Conditions and Monetary Policy Autonomy

Is the Mundell-Fleming trilemma alive and well? International co-movement of asset prices takes place alongside synchronized business cycles, complicating the identification of financial spillovers and assessments of monetary policy autonomy. A benchmark for interest rate comovement is to impose the null hypothesis that central banks respond only to the outlook for domestic inflation and output. We show that common approaches used to estimate interest rate spillovers tend to understate the degree of monetary autonomy enjoyed by small open economies with flexible exchange rates. We propose an empirical strategy that partials out those spillovers that are associated with impaired monetary autonomy. Using this approach, we revisit the predictions of the trilemma and find more compelling evidence that flexible exchange rates deliver monetary autonomy than prior work has suggested.

Accession to the Eurozone as Lithuania’s exit strategy from the currency board system

In the years 2004-2014 the Lithuania’s exchange rate policy was based on a rigid currency board system. After a period of uncontested success in the fight against inflation in the first decade of the transition and economic growth, entering the ERM II in 2004 and efforts to adopt the euro were treated as an optimal exit strategy from the currency board system. However, the consequences of this exchange rate system in the following years (until 2014) prevented Lithuania from meeting the economic convergence criteria. The starting point for the research is based on the theoretical analysis of literature studying benefits and risks associated with the use of the currency board system by the monetary authorities. The empirical analysis refers to the case of Lithuania and covers the years 2004-2014. The purpose of this analysis is to look at the effects of the use of the currency board system from the perspective of the convergence criteria of monetary nature and the extent of their implementation in the absence of opportunities for autonomous monetary policy.

Trilemma, Not Dilemma: Financial Globalisation and Monetary Policy Effectiveness

We investigate whether the classic Mundell-Flemming has morphed into a due to financial globalisation. According to the dilemma hypothesis, global financial cycles determine domestic financial conditions regardless of an economy's exchange rate regime and monetary policy autonomy is possible only if capital mobility is restricted. We find that global financial cycles indeed reduce domestic monetary policy effectiveness in more financially integrated economies. However, we also find that another salient feature of financial globalisation has the opposite effect and amplifies monetary policy effectiveness. Economies increasingly net long in foreign currency experience larger valuation effects on their external balance sheets in response to exchange rate movements triggered by monetary policy impluses. Overall, we find that the net effect of financial globalisation since the 1990s has been to amplify monetary policy effectiveness in the typical advanced and emerging market economy. Specifically, our results suggest that the output effect of a tightening in monetary policy has been stronger by 40% due to financial globalisation. Insofar as valuation effects can only play out if an economy's exchange rate is flexible, the choice of the exchange rate regime remains critical for monetary policy autonomy under capital mobility and in the presence of global financial cycles. Thus, our results suggest that the classic trilemma remains valid.

IDENTIFYING THE EFFECTS OF SIMULTANEOUS MONETARY POLICY SHOCKS

Many central banks, particularly in the developing world, aim for exchange rate stability as a macroeconomic goal. However, most are reluctant to relinquish monetary policy autonomy, so they end up operating through both interest rate and foreign exchange interventions. But the use of multiple policy instruments does not necessarily equip monetary authorities with better tools to achieve their targets. On the contrary, their effects can potentially offset each other. Using daily data from the Central Bank of Colombia during the period of 1999–2012, I study the effects of simultaneous policies by first deriving new measures of monetary shocks and then determining their impact on economic activity. The main findings indicate that (a) while interest rate interventions have a significant impact on real and nominal variables, foreign exchange interventions tend to have limited effects; and (b) empirical anomalies, such as the positive relationship between output growth, inflation, and the policy rate are eliminated when properly accounting for the systematic responses of policy. (JEL E43, E52, E58, F31)

Financial Flows and the International Monetary System

We review the findings of the literature on the benefits of international financial flows and find that they are quantitatively elusive. We then present evidence on the existence of a global cycle in gross cross-border flows, asset prices and leverage and discuss its impact on monetary policy autonomy across different exchange rate regimes. We focus in particular on the effect of US monetary policy shocks on the UK's financial conditions.

Dynamic Effect of a Change in the Exchange Rate System: From a Fixed Regime to a Basket-Peg or a Floating Regime

This paper theoretically evaluates the dynamic effects of a shift in an exchange rate system from a fixed regime to a basket peg, or to a floating regime, and obtains transition paths for the shift based on a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of a small open economy. We apply quantitative analysis using data from the People's Republic of China and Thailand and find that a small open country would be better off shifting to a basket peg or to a floating regime than maintaining a dollar-peg regime with capital controls over the long run. Furthermore, due to the welfare losses associated with volatility in nominal interest rates, the longer the transition period, the larger the benefits of shifting suddenly to a basket-peg regime from a dollar-peg regime than proceeding gradually. Regarding sudden shifts to desired regimes, the welfare gains are higher under a shift to a basket peg if the exchange rate fluctuates significantly. Finally, shifting to a managed-floating regime is less attractive than moving to a basket peg, as the interventions necessary to maintain the exchange rate for certain periods result in higher losses and the authority lacks monetary policy autonomy.

Is There a Macroeconomic Trilemma? A Theoretical Analysis

The article examines the view in international macroeconomics that has become known as the ‘Macroeconomic Trilemma’, the ‘Impossible Trilemma’, or simply the ‘Trilemma’. According to this view, national policy makers can reach two out of three desirable states: (i) free capital flows, (ii) exchange rate stability, and (iii) monetary policy autonomy, the latter implying the ability of monetary policy to pursue a production goal. It follows from the Trilemma that national policy makers with a closed capital account, i.e. choosing not to have (i), are both able to reach exchange rate stability and to use monetary policy for the pursuit of a production goal (monetary autonomy), i.e. the two desirable states indicated by (ii) and (iii). The implication is that it will be possible with the use of only one policy instrument, i.e. monetary policy, to reach two policy goals (an exchange rate goal and a production goal). This contradicts the Tinbergen rule, according to which the number of achievable policy goals cannot exceed the number of independent policy instruments. On the basis of a simple macroeconomic framework, the article disproves this part of the Trilemma. Thus, when capital markets are closed, national policy makers can reach only one policy goal – either an exchange rate goal or an employment goal – when they control only one policy instrument, i.e. monetary policy.

Trilemma Challenges for the People's Republic of China

This paper first reviews recent developments in exchange rate regimes, capital account liberalization, interest rate liberalization, and monetary policymaking in the People's Republic of China (PRC). It then observes that the PRC's monetary policy autonomy may have been reduced with falling capital control effectiveness and a rigid exchange regime that is still tightly managed against the United States (US) dollar. This hypothesis is investigated empirically using both the Taylor rule and a McCallum-like rule to test whether the PRC's money market interest rate and/or quantity of money supply are being increasingly influenced by the US interest rate or reserve accumulation. The paper concludes that there is considerable evidence suggesting diminishing monetary policy autonomy in the PRC. To regain policy autonomy, the monetary authority needs to substantially increase exchange rate flexibility of the renminbi as long as it continues to pursue capital account opening.

Trilemma Challenges for the People's Republic of China

This paper first reviews recent developments in exchange rate regimes, capital account liberalization, interest rate liberalization, and monetary policymaking in the People's Republic of China (PRC). It then observes that the PRC's monetary policy autonomy may have been reduced with falling capital control effectiveness and a rigid exchange regime that is still tightly managed against the United States (US) dollar. This hypothesis is investigated empirically using both the Taylor rule and the McCallum-like rule to test whether the PRC's money market interest rate and/or quantity of money supply are being increasingly influenced by the US interest rate or reserve accumulation. The paper concludes that there is considerable evidence suggesting diminishing monetary policy autonomy in the PRC. To regain policy autonomy, the monetary authority needs to substantially increase exchange rate flexibility of the renminbi as long as it continues to pursue capital account opening.

Issues for Renminbi Internationalization: An Overview

This paper provides an overview of the potential international role of the renminbi (RMB). Reviewing the current state, the paper finds that much progress has been made on RMB settlements for trade involving the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and on RMB-denominated bond issuance in Hong Kong, China, but that RMB internationalization is still limited due to capital account controls. It argues that a high degree of RMB internationalization requires significant capital account liberalization, which in turn would call for greater exchange rate flexibility so that the central bank can enjoy monetary policy autonomy. This, however, would pose a challenge for PRC authorities as hasty capital account liberalization could expose its financial markets to the risk of crisis. The paper also emphasizes the importance of institutional reforms to make the RMB a truly international reserve currency.

Measuring the On-Going Changes in China's Capital Flow Management: A De Jure and a Hybrid Index Data Set

Liberalizing China’s capital account may have profound implications for the RMB exchange rate, monetary policy autonomy, and Chinese and the world economy. Owing to the scarcity of proper measurements of China’s capital controls, rigorous studies on the effectiveness and implications of China’s capital controls are limited. We contribute to the literature by creating a new data set of indices including de jure and hybrid measurements of the changes in China’s capital controls, hoping to inspire a new avenue of research in this area. In contrasting to other capital control indices that are compiled in a yes-or-no style, we quantify the intensity of changes in China’s capital controls. Our indices reveal a persistent but uneven process of capital account liberalization in China between 1999 and 2012. This paper describes the de jure and hybrid indices, including indices for capital controls on individual asset categories, gross flows, inflows and outflows, as well as for residents and nonresidents asset transactions. Understanding that China usually implements policies in a step by step gradualist style, we extract those gradual information from the lines of the text in the IMF’s Annual Report on Exchange Arrangement and Exchange Restrictions (AREAER) and some supplementary material from other sources.

Domestic and Multilateral Effects of Capital Controls in Emerging Markets

Using a novel dataset on changes in capital controls and currency-based prudential measures in 17 major emerging market economies (EMEs) over the period 2001-2011, this paper provides new evidence on domestic and spillover effects of capital controls before and after the global financial crisis. Our results, based on panel VARs on quarterly data, suggest that capital control actions do not allow countries to avoid the trade-offs of the monetary policy trilemma. Where they have a desired impact on the trilemma variables – net capital inflows, monetary policy autonomy and the exchange rate – the size of that impact is generally small. While we find some evidence of effectiveness before the global financial crisis, the usefulness of these measures weakened in the post-crisis environment of abundant global liquidity and relatively strong economic growth in EMEs. Our results also show that capital control policies can have unintended consequences, as resident outflows offset the impact of capital control actions on gross inflows (or vice versa). These findings highlight the importance of the macroeconomic context and of the increasing role of resident flows in understanding the effectiveness of capital inflow management. Using panel near-VARs, we find significant spillovers of capital control actions in BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) to other EMEs during the 2000s. Spillover effects were more important in the aftermath of the global financial crisis than before the crisis, and arose from inflow tightening actions, rather than outflow easing measures. The channels through which these policies spilled over to other countries were exchange rates as well as capital flows (especially cross-border bank lending). Spillovers seem to be more prevalent in Latin America than in Asia, reflecting the greater role of cross-border banking and more open capital accounts in the former countries. These results are robust to various specifications of our models.Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.

Trilemma, Not Dilemma: Financial Globalisation and Monetary Policy Effectiveness

We investigate whether the classic Mundell-Flemming “trilemma” has morphed into a “dilemma” due to financial globalisation. According to the dilemma hypothesis, global financial cycles determine domestic financial conditions regardless of an economy's exchange rate regime and monetary policy autonomy is possible only if capital mobility is restricted. We find that global financial cycles indeed reduce domestic monetary policy effectiveness in more financially integrated economies. However, we also find that another salient feature of financial globalisation has the opposite effect and amplifies monetary policy effectiveness: Economies increasingly net long in foreign currency experience larger valuation effects on their external balance sheets in response to exchange rate movements triggered by monetary policy impulses. Overall, we find that the net effect of financial globalisation since the 1990s has been to amplify monetary policy effectiveness in the typical advanced and emerging market economy. Specifically, our results suggest that the output effect of a tightening in monetary policy has been stronger by 40% due to financial globalisation. Insofar as valuation effects can only play out if an economy's exchange rate is flexible, the choice of the exchange rate regime remains critical for monetary policy autonomy under capital mobility and in the presence of global financial cycles. Thus, our results suggest that the classic trilemma remains valid.

Measuring the On-Going Changes in China's Capital Flow Management: A De Jure and a Hybrid Index Data Set

Liberalizing China's capital account may have profound implications for the RMB exchange rate, monetary policy autonomy, and Chinese and the world economy. Owing to the scarcity of proper measurements of China's capital controls, rigorous studies on the effectiveness and implications of China's capital controls are limited. We contribute to the literature by creating a new data set of indices including de jure and hybrid measurements of the changes in China's capital controls, hoping to inspire a new avenue of research in this area. In contrasting to other capital control indices that are compiled in a yes-or-no style, we quantify the intensity of changes in China's capital controls. Our indices reveal a persistent but uneven process of capital account liberalization in China between 1999 and 2012. This paper describes the de jure and hybrid indices, including indices for capital controls on individual asset categories, gross flows, inflows and outflows, as well as for residents and nonresidents asset transactions. Understanding that China usually implements policies in a step by step gradualist style, we extract those gradual information from the lines of the text in the IMF's Annual Report on Exchange Arrangement and Exchange Restrictions (AREAER) and some supplementary material from other sources.

Capital controls and recovery from the financial crisis of the 1930s

We examine the first widespread use of capital controls in response to a global or regional financial crisis. In particular, we analyze whether capital controls mitigated capital flight in the 1930s and assess their causal effects on macroeconomic recovery from the Great Depression. We find evidence that they stemmed gold outflows in the year following their imposition; however, time-shifted, difference-in-differences (DD) estimates of industrial production, prices, and exports suggest that capital controls did not accelerate macroeconomic recovery relative to countries that went off gold and floated. Countries imposing capital controls also appear to perform similar to the gold bloc countries once the latter group of countries finally abandoned gold. Time series analysis suggests that countries imposing capital controls refrained from fully utilizing their newly acquired monetary policy autonomy.

Examining the exchange rate regime–monetary policy autonomy nexus: Evidence from Malaysia

Some studies suggest that Asian countries can be exempted from the impossible trinity. We examined the empirical relevance of this argument by reviewing the experience of Malaysia. We defined monetary autonomy by analyzing the interaction between the Malaysian and US interest rates. We used the Unrestricted Error Correction Model Pesaran Bounds test to analyze the interaction between the Malaysian and US interest rates during three different sub periods. Our empirical results showed that there is no cointegration evidence during the managed floating exchange rate periods. However, we found that there was a level relationship between the Malaysian and US interest rates during the period when Malaysia had a fixed exchange rate and an open capital account regime. In contrast with other existing studies, we conclude that Malaysia is not exempted from the impossible trinity. Our study has also highlighted that the Pesaran Bounds test must be interpreted carefully when applied to series with mixed orders of integration.