Regulators worldwide introduce measures to improve energy consumption and reduce greenhouse emissions of road vehicles. The present study focuses on the impacts of passenger car carbon dioxide (CO2) and fuel efficiency measures, attempting to evaluate their effectiveness using vehicle and fleet modelling. To obtain a robust counterfactual result, two regions are compared as a case study: the European Union (EU), where CO2 emissions have been regulated for over fifteen years, and Australia, a region that recently introduced such a policy element. The average difference in the certified CO2 emissions of new cars registered in the two regions increased from 50g/km in 2018 to 60g/km in 2021 due to accelerated electrification in the EU. To demonstrate the importance of mandatory targets, a sensitivity analysis of the 2020 EU registrations showed that lower by one-third sales of zero and low-emission vehicles (Z-L-EVs) would have resulted in seven out of ten manufacturer pools failing to meet the 2020 target of 95g/km. The simulation framework was validated against certified values of 2021 registrations and was subsequently used to calculate real-world fleet performance to quantify the actual emissions savings. The real-world CO2 emissions in the registered fleets for 2021 were estimated to be 143g/km and 204g/km, for the EU and Australia, respectively. With these results as a reference, the share of ZEVs required to meet the targets set in both regions is calculated: 51% of the new registrations in 2030 in the EU for achieving 49.5g/km, and 60% in Australia for recently set target of 58g/km for 2029. The respective calculated average fleet-wide real-world tailpipe CO2 emissions were estimated to be 66g/km (EU) and 77g/km (Australia). As a last step, the study discusses the application of similar tools and analysis in the design of future policies.
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