Autoregressive Moving Average Research Articles

Comparative study of the effectiveness of time series and arima modeling x RNA approach in a Multi Layer Perceptron (MLP) model in predicting fouled in petroleum pre-processing heat exchangers

This work presents a comparison between two approaches based on Artificial Intelligence techniques to predict critical deposition in the battery of shell and tube heat exchangers, used in petroleum pre-processing. Deposition or incrustation, which occurs on the thermal exchange surfaces of heat exchangers, during operation, can reduce the efficiency of this equipment and generate an increase in the cost of refining for the petrochemical plant due to the modification of ideal operating parameters and changes. process variables, such as flow, pressure and temperature, input and output of heat exchangers, as well as thermodynamic parameters, such as fouling resistance coefficient and global heat transfer coefficient. The proposed methods for comparing results used the analysis and prediction of time series based mainly on integrated autoregressive moving average (ARIMA) and Deep Learning models and, on the other hand, an artificial neural network (ANN) model based on the Multi Layer architecture. Perceptron (MLP) with the Backpropagation error backpropagation algorithm. The data was collected in exchangers of a petroleum preheating battery in the years 2014 to 2021. The general objective of this work is to present the results of both approaches and compare, since they aim to predict the deposition in the heat exchanger of the shell and tube type, thus helping to minimize maintenance costs and increase the energy efficiency of the petrochemical plant, making operations safer and more efficient, bringing significant benefits to the petroleum industry.

Deep learning approach for one-hour ahead forecasting of solar radiation in different climate regions

ABSTRACT The accurate prediction of hourly global solar radiation is critical to solar energy conversion systems selecting appropriate provinces, and even future investment policies. With this viewpoint, the aim of this study is to predict one hour ahead the global solar radiation of six provinces that have different climate regions in Turkey. A deep learning technique based on the LSTM neural network is used for this purpose. To see the success of this proposed model, the deep learning technique GRU, a machine-learning approach ANFIS with FCM, and standard statistical models ARMA, ARIMA, and, SARIMA are also applied. Forecasting models developed to estimate the future values of hourly global solar radiation are based on past time series data. The study discusses four different statistical metrics (MAE, RMSE, NSE, and, R) to determine the success of these algorithms. The results indicate that the R, MAE, NSE, and, RMSE values of the two approaches range from 0.9352 to 0.9806, from 29.0737 to 59.4840 Wh/m2, from 0.6445 to 0.9686 and from 57.4492 to 94.3287 Wh/m2, respectively. The results revealed that the methods used in the study performed satisfactorily in terms of hourly solar radiation estimation, but the LSTM method performed better.

A hybrid model enhancing streamflow forecasts in paddy land use-dominated catchments with numerical weather prediction model-based meteorological forcings

The development of a streamflow forecasting tool becomes a challenging task due to the sophisticated nonlinear catchment response, varying crop management practices, and limited in situ data availability. For real-time streamflow forecasting with up to 10-days lead-time, this study investigates the potential of SWAT-pothole (PSWAT) module forced with bias-corrected Global Forecasting System (GFS) meteorological variables; wherein the error-updating is carried out for the streamflow forecasts simulated by PSWAT. The error is updated by hierarchical data-driven sub-models, such as AutoRegressive (AR), AutoRegressive Moving Average with eXogenous inputs (ARMAX), Wavelet-based Neural Network (WNN), Wavelet-based Non-linear AutoRegressive with eXogenous inputs (WNARX), Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM), and a novel Wavelet-based Bidirectional LSTM (WBiLSTM). The efficacy of the standalone PSWAT module is tested against the hybrid models in the Brahmani-Baitarani (≈ 49,000 km2) compound River Basin in eastern India. The results revealed that the novel PSWAT-WBiLSTM hybrid model is the best for reliable streamflow forecasts up to 8-days’ and 9-days’ lead-times in the Brahmani and Baitarani River basins, respectively. Conclusively, this model can be a potential medium-range streamflow forecasting tool for paddy-dominated catchments.

The impact of COVID-19 on healthcare booking and cancellation patterns: time series analysis of private healthcare service utilisation in Finland

BackgroundCOVID-19 has had wide-reaching effects on healthcare services beyond the direct treatment of the pandemic. Most current studies have reported changes in realised service usage, but the dynamics of how patients engage with healthcare services are less well understood. We analysed the effects of COVID-19 on healthcare bookings and cancellations for various service channels between January 2020 and July 2021.MethodsOur data includes 7.3 million bookings, 11.0 million available appointments, and 405.1 thousand cancellations by 900.6 thousand individual patients between the ages of 18 and 65 years. The data were collected from electronic health record data, including laboratory and imaging services as well as inpatient stays, between January 2017 and July 2021. The patients were Finnish private and occupational healthcare customers in the capital region of Finland. We fitted an autoregressive moving average (ARIMA) model on data between 2017 and 2019 to predict the expected numbers of bookings, available appointments, and cancellations, which were compared to observed time series data between 2020 and 2021.ResultsUtilisation of physical, in-person primary care physician appointments decreased by up to 50% during the first 18 months of the pandemic. At the same time, digital care channels experienced a rapid, multi-fold increase in service usage. Simultaneously, the number of bookings for laboratory and imaging services decreased by 50% below the pre-pandemic projections. The number of specialist and hospital service bookings remained at the predicted level during the study period. Cancellations for most health services increased sharply by up to three times the pre-COVID levels during the first weeks of the pandemic but returned to the pre-pandemic levels for the rest of the study period.ConclusionsThe reduction in in-person appointments and the increase in the utilisation of digital services was likely a contributing factor in the decrease of the utilisation of diagnostic and imaging services throughout the study period. Utilisation of specialist care and hospital services were not affected. Cancellations contributed to the changes in service utilisation only during the first weeks of the pandemic.

Long-term solar radiation forecasting based on LSTM and attention mechanism: a case study in Algeria

The growing adoption of photovoltaic (PV) energy in urban areas underscores its capability to meet energy demands effectively. The accurate forecasting of meteorological parameters, particularly global solar radiation, is paramount for the efficient management and utilization of solar energy resources. Solar radiation forecasting methods typically fall into two main categories: cloud imagery combined with physical approaches, and Artificial Intelligence (AI) based methods. Due to the non-stationary nature of solar radiation and the high nonlinearity of atmospheric conditions, conventional forecasting approaches often exhibit poor accuracy. Artificial intelligence based approaches, such as machine learning and deep learning algorithms, are extensively employed in global solar radiation forecasting research, demonstrating impressive accuracy. In this respect, this paper presents a novel approach for long term monthly forecasting of global solar radiation using a Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) architecture augmented with an attention mechanism that includes a Squeeze and Excitation (SE) block (SE-BiLSTM). The effectiveness of this model is extensively evaluated for long-term monthly solar radiation forecasting using meteorological data collected over a 20-year period (from Jan 2001 to Dec 2020) from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). The proposed SE-BiLSTM model is compared with well-established forecasting models including Naïve, Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA), Multi-layer Perceptron (MLP), LSTM, and Bidirectional LSTM. Through rigorous simulation tests, our model demonstrates superior performance, achieving the lowest mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 4.52% and mean absolute error (MAE) of 7.89 kW/m2. This advancement holds significant promise for enhancing solar energy forecasting accuracy and its practical application in renewable energy systems.

Multi-Objective Optimization of Cell Voltage Based on a Comprehensive Index Evaluation Model in the Aluminum Electrolysis Process

In the abnormal situation of an aluminum electrolysis cell, the setting of cell voltage is mainly based on manual experience. To obtain a smaller cell voltage and optimize the operating parameters, a multi-objective optimization method for cell voltage based on a comprehensive index evaluation model is proposed. Firstly, a comprehensive judgment model of the cell state based on the energy balance, material balance, and stability of the aluminum electrolysis process is established. Secondly, a fuzzy neural network (FNN) based on the autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model is designed to establish the cell-state prediction model in order to finish the real-time monitoring of the process. Thirdly, the optimization goal of the process is summarized as having been met when the difference between the average cell voltage and the target value reaches the minimum, and the condition of the cell is excellent. And then, the optimization setting model of cell voltage is established under the constraints of the production and operation requirements. Finally, a multi-objective antlion optimization algorithm (MOALO) is used to solve the above model and find a group of optimized values of the electrolysis cell, which is used to realize the optimization control of the cell state. By using actual production data, the above method is validated to be effective. Moreover, optimized operating parameters are used to verify the prediction model of cell voltage, and the cell state is just excellent. The method is also applied to realize the optimization control of the process. It is of guiding significance for stabilizing the electrolytic aluminum production and achieving energy saving and consumption reduction.

Automotive Kit Demand Forecasting Using Advanced Forecasting Models: A Data-Driven Approach for Optimal Demand Forecasting

This study addresses the major challenges of forecasting automotive kit items(parts of vehicles) by enhancing the delivery of the products and managing the inventory. The kit items vary as per customers and it is unique on its own, where the uniqueness determines the vehicle parts. Customers are the major role players who provide the business hence, this study highlights various factors contributing to the customer’s choice of kit items with features consisting of vehicle name, original equipment manufacturer (OEM), Item Description (collection of vehicle parts) type of product (brand of vehicle) and monthly allotment of each kit item as per customer starting from 2021 April to 2024 January. We conducted an extensive analysis to assess a range of time series analysis techniques for predicting kit demand within the automotive industry, the methods we investigated encompassed Autoregressive (AR), Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) ,Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA), Simple Exponential Smoothing (SES), Holt's Linear Trend Method - Double Exponential Smoothing, Triple Exponential Smoothing - Holt Winters, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and advanced forecasting models such as prophet in evaluating the accuracy of these models, we employed key metrics such as Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), this study aims to drive significant progress in the automotive industry by optimising inventory management reducing storage costs and improving delivery efficiency to ensure smooth business operations moreover the integration of visually engaging dashboards for real-time analysis of projected values plays a pivotal role in identifying crucial monthly demand trends this integration not only enhances operational efficiency but also fosters enriched customer engagement thereby facilitating sustained advancement within the automotive sector.

Effect of Structural Breaks on Stock Market Performance during COVID-19 Period in Sri Lanka

This study investigates the effects of structural breaks on the Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE) performance over the COVID-19 period. Stock market returns and volatility are used to proxy the stock market performance. Structural breaks were identified by using the Bai-Perron (2003) test. An ARMA (p,q) model fitted for stock returns was augmented using dummy variables for the structural breaks to measure the effect of structural breaks on stock market returns. The model was further extended as a volatility regression model (GARCH, EGARCH, or TGARCH) to measure the effect of structural breaks on stock market volatility. The results confirmed the presence of structural breaks following COVID-19-related news in CSE. Seventeen such breaks were identified. However, only three significantly influenced the stock market returns and the volatility. As a result, the study's consequences affect stockbrokers, multinational organizations, portfolio managers, and investors, allowing them to foresee market patterns and take preventative action in the event of structural breaks.

Modelling The Volatility of Frankfurt Stock Exchange (DAX) Returns Using hybrid Models

Recently, the interest of researchers in the use of hybrid models in the process of analyzing model time series with fluctuations and forecasting fluctuations in financial time series has increased significantly. Hybrid ARMA-GARCH models were created for medium- and long-term forecasts of time series of financial market index prices: ARMA models are used to analyze their linear component, which is a combination of autoregressive models and moving average models, and GARCH models are used to analyze the nonlinear component. which are generalized autoregressive models that depend on the nonconstancy of variance models. Hybrid ARMA-GARCH models eliminate the weaknesses and gaps that exist in each group of models (ARMA and GARCH) separately, which increases their forecasting accuracy and reliability, so they have already been successfully applied to model and forecast daily stock returns for three standard indices in the USA. The purpose of this article is to investigate which of the hybrid ARMA-GARCH models is optimal for forecasting the return of the DAX index, which is the most important stock index of the German securities market. It is the German equivalent of the American Dow Jones Index, has been calculated since 1988 by Deutsche Börse AG and reflects the total return on capital of the largest stock companies listed on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange (currently 40; by 2021 – 30): calculated as a weighted average of capitalization of the value of Free Float share prices on the Xetra electronic exchange, and also takes into account dividends on shares, assuming that the dividend is reinvested in the share on which it was accrued. The database of this study consisted of the daily closing prices of the DAX index presented on the official website of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange during the period from 01.01.2018 to 09.30.2023 (altogether about 1,500 observations), the stability of the time series was assessed using Expanded Dickey Fuller Liquidity (ADF). The article proposes 7 hybrid models, from which the one that is best suited for modeling the volatility of the DAX index is selected. It is an ARMA (2,3)-EGARCH (1,1) model because it captures volatility and leverage effects on DAX returns and its expected returns more than other models. The selection of the best alternative from the developed array of hybrid models was carried out according to the following criteria: AIC (Akaike Information Criterion), BIC (Bayesian Information Criterion), H-QIC (Hannan-Quinn Information Criterion).

التنبؤ باستهلاك الكهرباء باستخدام منهج التحليل الطيفي في محافظة السليمانية

In the modern world, with the extensive use of electricity in homes and businesses, studying and forecasting electrical consumption is crucial for its management and distribution. This research aims to forecast the electricity consumption in Sulaimani province using spectral analysis on time series data. For this purpose, hourly data within the time range of July to September 2022 has been utilized, and a new model has been proposed, consisting of a sinusoidal explanatory variable and a nonlinear quadratic variable. In this model, the most significant periodic cycles present in the time series under study were identified by employing the periodogram and Fourier expansion method, capable of identifying hidden cycles in the data. Subsequently, each of these periodic components was added to the model based on the principle of parsimony. The proposed composite model includes a quadratic component and two harmonic components with 24 and 12-hour periods. This model demonstrates notable efficiency and accuracy as it outperforms the classical Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) model based on the MSE=0.0009 rate and MAE=23.819 when compared

The Predictive Power of Monetary Policy on International Stock Market Returns—Evidence From TV-ARMAX Model

In this paper, we apply the time-varying ARMA model with exogenous variable (TV-ARMAX) to examine the predictive power of monetary policy on international stock returns. This method allows time-varying coefficient estimates and uses time-dependent cumulated variation penalty to filter noisy outlier data points. Based on a wide range of 31 countries, our method robustly outperforms other popular methods including the simple linear-regression model (SLM), the vector autoregression and its variants (VAR, TV-VAR, and VARX) and the ARMA model with exogenous variable (ARMAX).

Investigation of Radon, Total Electron Content and Linear and Nonlinear Variations of Meteorological Variables Due to Earthquakes: ARIMA and Monte Carlo Modelling

An Integrated Autoregressive Moving Average (ARIMA) - Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) is proposed to analyze and model the anomalies of atmospheric and ground gases by an earthquake along the North Anatolian Fault Zone (Türkiye). Earthquakes, Soil radon gas and Total Electron Content (TEC) showed simultaneous anomalies. There are positive relationships between these three parameters. Also, positive relations between Rn, meteorology, and atmosphere are detected. The proposed ARIMA model and MCS for the Rn-TEC-Earthquake relationships of the measured data gave statistically significant results. This model and simulation showed statistically significant changes in the effects of microearthquakes, which are more difficult to detect than large earthquakes, especially on the ionospheric TEC.

Online learning of stable robust adaptive controllers design based on data-dependent feedback linearization with application to rotary inverted pendulum

This study introduces an online (supervised) learning method to design nonlinear auto-regressive moving average (NARMA) controllers for feedback-linearized nonlinear single-input single-output (SISO) systems. The algorithm ensures Schur stability of the overall closed-loop system and provides adaptiveness and robustness for the NARMA controllers. The first stage of the method derives, in a data-dependent way, a feedback-linearized model of the nonlinear plant by using its input and output sample pairs. The method’s second stage, which constitutes the novel part of the presented study, builds up an online learning scheme for the linear auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) controller based on an already learned feedback-linearized model of the nonlinear plant. During online supervised learning, ARMA parameters of the feedback-linearized SISO plant model and the closed-loop ARMA model are computed by minimizing the plant identification and the closed-loop system tracking errors. Both errors are defined as ℓ1,ε\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$${{\\ell}}_{1,{\\varvec{\\varepsilon}}}$$\\end{document}, namely ε-insensitive loss functions that provide NARMA controller the robustness against noise and outliers. The proposed online learning control algorithm is applied to a rotary inverted pendulum model and to a real rotary inverted pendulum setup. The tracking performance of the developed controller is compared with those of the linear quadratic regulator and coupled sliding mode controller in terms of mean square error.

Research on Seasonal Orderliness and Linear Correlation of Vegetable Sales Data

The key to the study of seasonal orderliness and linear correlation of vegetable sales data is to understand how sales patterns are affected by seasonal factors and the linear relationship between these patterns and other variables. Seasonal ordering reflects cyclical changes in sales data over time that are influenced by factors such as climate, traditional festivals, and consumption habits. For example, certain vegetables may sell better in the winter while others in the summer. By analysing historical sales data, time series models such as Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) can be used to forecast future sales trends, which in turn support inventory management and pricing strategies. In addition, linear correlation analysis helps to identify the relationship between sales volume and factors such as price, cost and market demand, as well as the interactions between different vegetables, including complementary and substitution effects. This information is crucial for supply chain optimisation, promotional campaign planning and risk management. With the development of big data and analytics, researchers can more accurately model and predict market behaviours to support strategic decision-making for vegetable producers and retailers. Research that integrates seasonal ordering and linear correlation will provide insights into the complex dynamics of the vegetable market and provide data to support market participants in developing strategies to adapt to the changing environment.

Multi-participant Decision-making Based on Digital Platforms: A Case Study for the Romanian Academy

The last decade culminating with the pandemic disrupted traditional business models in various industries and accelerated the digital transformation based on economy platforms. The main aim of this paper is to present the platform economy framework to facilitate peer-to-peer transactions for different business models and the basic aspects related to multi-participant/collaborative decision-making and evaluation of teleconference platforms and particularize the virtual meetings and conferences. The necessary steps for planning a teleconference and the results of the concept implementation have been extracted from Romanian Academy practical case study referring to multi-participant decision-making using teleconference platforms. A Seasonal Autoregressive Moving Average model (SARIMA) is employed to explain the number of participants in an online conference in the Romanian Academy between April 2020 to August 2023. This model has been used to make short-run dynamic and static forecasts on the horizon from September 2023 to December 2023.

Power consumption prediction for electric vehicle charging stations and forecasting income

Electric vehicles (EVs) are the future of the automobile industry, as they produce zero emissions and address environmental and health concerns caused by traditional fuel-poared vehicles. As more people shift towards EVs, the demand for power consumption forecasting is increasing to manage the charging stations effectively. Predicting power consumption can help optimize operations, prevent grid overloading, and power outages, and assist companies in estimating the number of charging stations required to meet demand. The paper uses three time series models to predict the electricity demand for charging stations, and the SARIMA (Seasonal Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average) model outperforms the ARMA (Auto Regressive Moving Average) and ARIMA (Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average) models, with the least RMSE (Root Mean Squared Error), MAE (Mean Absolute Error) and MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) scores in forecasting power demand and revenue. The data used for validation consists of charging activities over a four-year period from public charging outlets in Colorado, six months of charging data from ChargeMOD's public charging terminals in Kerala, India. Power usage is also forecasted based on wheels of vehicles, and finally, a plan subscription data from the same source is utilized to anticipate income, that helps companies develop pricing strategies to maximize profits while remaining competitive. Utility firms and charging networks may use accurate power consumption forecasts for a variety of purposes, such as power scheduling and determining the expected energy requirements for charging stations. Ultimately, precise power consumption forecasting can assist in the effective planning and design of EV charging infrastructure. The main aim of this study is to create a good time series model which can estimate the electric vehicle charging stations usage of power and verify if the firm has a good income along with some accuracy measures. The results show that SARIMA model plays a vital role in providing us with accurate information. According to the data and study here, four wheelers use more power than two and three wheelers. Also, DC charging facility uses more electricity than AC charging stations. These results can be used to determine the cost to operate the EVs and its subscriptions.

Selection and Evaluation of Robotic Arm based Conveyor Belts (RACBs) Motions: NARMA(L2)-FO(ANFIS)PD-I based Jaya Optimization Algorithm

Scholars worldwide have shown considerable interest in the industrial sector, mainly due to its abundant resources, which have facilitated the adoption of conveyor belt technologies like Robotic Arm-Based Conveyor Belts (RACBs). RACBs rely on four primary movements: (i.e., joint, motor, gear, and sensor), which can have a significant impact on the overall motions and motion estimation. To optimize these operations, an assistive algorithm has been developed to enhance the effectiveness of motion by achieving favorable gains. However, each motion requires specific criteria for Fractional Order Proportional Integral Derivative (FOPID) controller gains, leading to various challenges. These challenges include the existence of multiple evaluation and selection criteria, the significance of these criteria for each motion, the trade-off between criterion performance for each motion, and determining critical values for the criteria. As a result, the evaluation and selection of the Proposed Jaya optimization algorithm for RACB motion control becomes a complex problem. To address these challenges, this study proposes a novel integrated approach for selecting the Jaya optimization algorithm in different RACB motions. The approach incorporates two evaluation methods: the Nonlinear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous inputs (NARMA-L2) controller for Neural Network (NN) weighting of the criteria, and the Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) for selecting the Jaya optimization algorithm. The approach consists of three main phases: RACB-based NARMA-L2 Controller Identification and Pre-processing, Development of NARMA-L2 controller-based NARMA(L2)-FO(ANFIS)PD-I, and Evaluation of FOPID criteria based on JOA. The proposed approach is evaluated based on NARMA(L2)-FO(ANFIS)PD-I that given 0.4074, 0.3156, 0.3724, 0.1898 and 0.2135 for K_p_joint, K_i_motor, K_d_sensor, λ_gear, and µ_N respectively, which verifies the soundness of the proposed methodology.

A hybrid model based on STL with simple exponential smoothing and ARMA for wind forecast in a Brazilian nuclear power plant site

In the event of a nuclear accident with release of radioactive effluents into the environment, the Environmental Control System (ECS) at the Central Nuclear Almirante Álvaro Alberto (CNAAA) nuclear complex estimates the movement of the radioactive plume produced and provides forecast for one and two hours ahead. The prediction is based on the current accident and atmospheric data collected from meteorological stations spread across the site. In this way, the ECS estimates the spatial dose and dose rates distribution at ground level. The one- and two-hour forecast made by the ECS use the naïve method, which repeats the last known value. Its results are satisfactory if the next value to be collected does not differ substantially from the last known value. However, observing real data, acquired in loco, this fact does not occur in practice, which can make the forecast considerably erroneous.The purpose of this work is to investigate new approaches to improve ECS forecasting method, making it more accurate in real situations. To this end, the Seasonal and Trend decomposition using Loess (STL) was used together with the Simple Exponential Smoothing (SES) method and the Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) model to forecast weather parameters at the Angra site. The STL method was chosen since it has a robust mathematical decomposition method, capable of satisfactorily dealing with time series that have a high frequency of acquisition, the so-called intraday series. This model uses the Loess method, which is a smoothing technique based on locally adjusted regressions. The SES method and ARMA model are the techniques that most adequately fit the trend and remainder components generated by the STL decomposition, respectively. In the scope of this work, the method is applied to forecast wind speed measurements made at one of the meteorological towers used by the ECS. Using the hybrid model developed, an increase the of 101.39% in the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), was achieved when compared to the ECS forecast method.

Prediksi Curah Hujan Kota Manado Dengan Menggunakan Metode Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA)

This study aims to determine the best ARMA model for predicting Manado City rainfall using the ARMA method. The data used in this study is time series data, namely data on the monthly rainfall period of Manado City starting from September 2018 to August 2023. The results showed that the best model obtained was the ARMA model (1,11) with the equation . From the results of the rainfall prediction, Manado City has an accurate level of MAPE value of 56%, with consecutive predictions from September 2023 to March 2024 are 83.2 mm, 98.8 mm, 131.1 mm, 289.1 mm, 237.7 mm, 222.6 mm, 206.9 mm.

Development of ultra-low emission prediction model for steel enterprises based on ARIMA

The iron and steel industry is an important raw material industry in the country, but also a large air pollutant emission. In the face of the increasing environmental standards and requirements of the country, promoting the implementation of ultra-low emissions in the steel industry, significantly reducing pollutant emissions, promoting continuous improvement of environmental quality[1], and accelerating green low-carbon transformation and high-quality development are the general trend and industry needs. According to the promotion requirements of ultra-low emission work in Baoshan Base, the ultra-low emission application system was developed to meet the ultra-low emission control requirements. Using the ultra-low emission monitoring data of Nanjing Mei shan the parameters p, d and q were first determined, and then the ultra-low emission differential autoregressive moving average (ARIMA) prediction model was established.