Australian Election Study Research Articles

Political crisis and social trust: the case of Australia

ABSTRACT Trust in Australian political institutions has declined markedly since 2007. Trust scholars and social capital theorists argue that institutional trust affects social trust, which implies that declining trust in political institutions should also reduce social trust. However, using data from the Australian Election Study, World Values Survey and HILDA panel study, I find no evidence of any aggregate-level decline in Australian social trust since 2007. While this could be a result of the ‘coup era’ in Australian politics from 2010 to 2018, a better explanation is that social trust remained high because permanent changes in trust occur primarily among younger people. A long-term decline through generational replacement therefore remains possible. This challenges both social capital theory and institutional theories of social trust, but would explain the experiences of other advanced democracies during episodes of political crisis, including New Zealand, Greece, Finland, Japan, Sweden, Spain and the United States.

Party explanations for the 2022 Australian election result

ABSTRACT Post-election reviews provide an opportunity for political parties to diagnose the reasons for their success or failure. Since 2019, the reviews conducted by the Australian Labor and Liberal parties have been made public, and they provide an ideal opportunity to test their explanations against the evidence. This paper identifies six explanations for the 2022 Australian federal election outcome and tests them using the 2022 Australian Election Study survey. Both reviews correctly identify the importance of leadership and the pandemic in shaping the election result but underplay the importance of independents and of climate change. Both reviews over-estimate changes in voting among women and immigrants. Overall, the reviews are only partially accurate in explaining the election result.

The Coup Capital of the Democratic World? Voters and Prime Ministerial Change in Australia

Between 2010 and 2018, Australia saw four sitting prime ministers deposed by their own parties, giving the country the title “the coup capital of the democratic world”. In this paper, we use Australian Election Study surveys and commercial opinion poll data to analyse what voters thought of these changes and whether they lifted the electoral fortunes of their respective parties. The results suggest that voters' views of the changes depended on the popularity of the leader in question, but that a desire to see better economic performance reinforced support for a change in prime minister. There is little evidence that opinion polls played a role in any of the changes, at least for voters. There is also no evidence that the changes improved the subsequent vote for each of the parties that changed a prime minister; indeed, in three of the four cases the party vote declined significantly following the change.

Exposure to Campaign and Partisan Voting: The Moderating Roles of Voters' Political Predispositions

How do partisan citizens respond to campaign information and make voting decisions? We theorise that the association between exposure to campaign information and partisan voting is moderated by citizens' political predispositions — strength of partisanship, political sophistication, and election interest. To test our expectations, we used Australian Election Studies data from 2013, 2016, and 2019. We found that partisans who are exposed to campaign information tend to follow their party preference when strength of partisanship is high. For political sophistication, we found that the influence of campaign information on partisan voting is not conditional on sophistication. For election interest, we found a moderating effect of election interest whereby partisan individuals who encountered campaign information were more inclined to choose their own party when interest was low and more inclined to support their opposing party when interest was high.

Does religion remain an influence on political participation in an increasingly secular society? An empirical investigation of the Australian case

ABSTRACT A substantial body of literature has found that religion is related to an individual’s political participation. However, rates of religious affiliation and religious attendance have dropped considerably over the last three decades in some countries. This article explores this development by investigating the following question: does religion still remain an important factor in influencing the rate of political participation in societies that have become more secular than ever? Using data based on the Australian Election Study of 2019, the findings reveal that the effect of religion on political participation is definitely not waning in Australian society which is gradually becoming more secular. Religious attendance continues to be significantly and positively associated with political participation while religious affiliation is not. The study further indicates that religious attendance moderates the association between religious affiliation and political participation. The findings suggest that religion, particularly religious attendance, remains a key driver for political participation among religious individuals in increasingly secular societies.

Sexism and Attitudes Toward Policy Spending in Australia and the United States

Sexist attitudes influence a wide range of political behaviors, including support for explicitly gendered policies like gender quotas. But we know much less about how sexism might broadly shape policy preferences. We argue that some policy domains are implicitly associated with being pro-women or pro-men because of gender socialization, gender segregation in the workforce, and differences in policy preferences in the general population and among political elites. As (hostile) sexists view women as inherently undeserving, making illegitimate claims on government, and getting ahead at the expense of men, we hypothesize that they will oppose policies associated with women, while supporting “male” policies such as defense and law enforcement. We test our hypothesis using the 2019 Australian Election Study and 2018 US Cooperative Congressional Study. We find similar patterns of policy preferences, wherein those holding sexist attitudes (net of other attitudes and demographic characteristics) want to cut funding for pro-women policies like social services, education, and health, while they approve of increased funding for law enforcement and defense.

Political Performance and Political Trust in Australia

While political trust has declined in Australia, reaching its lowest level ever recorded in 2019, there remain very few studies on what explains the variation in political trust and therefore what leads to such change in political trust is less certain in Australia. This paper examines the role of political performance, grounded in the valence model of electoral support, in shaping the political trust of citizens in Australia, using Australian Election Study data from 2001 to 2019. Political performance is measured by economic performance, partisanship, leadership image, political satisfaction, and leadership change, based on the valence model of electoral support. The results demonstrate that economic performance, leadership image, and political satisfaction have contributed to a change in the level of political trust in Australia, whereas partisanship and leadership change have not been significantly associated with variation in political trust.

The impact of intergroup contact on attitudes towards immigrants: a case study of Australia

ABSTRACT As global efforts to address COVID-19 become more urgent, the public discourse on attitudes towards immigrants has also become more polarized. In such a heightened social and political context, we study the impact of intergroup contact in political jurisdictions with different shares of minority populations. Drawing on data from the Australian Election Study and the Census, we find that less intergroup contact with neighbours from minority birthplace, language and citizenship backgrounds is correlated with higher anti-immigrant sentiments. These results have significant implications for immigrant-receiving countries with existing legislation and policies that direct immigrants to move to areas of lower population density, lower presence of immigrants, and less previous exposure to international migration. The evidence presented in this study suggests that without sufficient political and policy sensitization to the issues for immigrants living in these areas, there could be detrimental social and political impacts to both immigrants and society more generally.

Sexism and the Australian voter: how sexist attitudes influenced vote choice in the 2019 federal election

ABSTRACT While attitudes toward women and gender equality are increasingly salient in Australian politics, little is known about how sexist attitudes shape political behaviour. Using the Australian Election Study, I assess the extent hostile sexism is present among Australian citizens and influenced vote choice in the 2019 Federal election. First, I find that women are less likely than men to hold hostile sexist attitudes, but gender differences vary by party identification. Second, I show that hostile sexism is not significantly related to the likelihood of voting for the Labor or Liberal parties. Hostile sexist attitudes, however, significantly increase the likelihood of voting for the National party and significantly decrease the likelihood of voting for the Greens. Finally, I find no gender difference in the role of hostile sexism in explaining vote choice.

Explaining the decline of political trust in Australia

ABSTRACT In most established democracies, trends in political trust in recent decades have fluctuated, but have not declined strongly. Citizens’ democratic attitudes in many countries have even proven to be resilient in the face of the Great Recession. Such trends contrast sharply with the observation of a gradual and continued decline of Australian’s trust in politics since 2007. Using a combined file of seven Australian Election Study surveys, employing exactly comparable questions and methodologies, this paper tests two explanations – government performance and political detachment – to account for this remarkable decline. The findings show that both a lack of performance by successive governments and a broad detachment from politics matter. The findings suggest that there is no single explanation for the decline; rather, a diverse range of inter-related factors appear to be at work.

Migrant Attitudes Towards Democracy in Australia: Excluded or Allegiant Citizens?

How do migrants evaluate democracy in Australia? While prior studies have examined migrant support for democracy in Australia, less is known about how migrants evaluate the performance of democracy, as captured by indicators on political trust and satisfaction with democracy. Would migrants have lower levels of political trust and satisfaction with democracy as a result of political exclusion, including under‐representation in parliament? Or would migrants from less democratic countries, socialised in regimes where critical attitudes towards political authorities are discouraged, be more allegiant citizens with relatively positive evaluations of democracy? Using data from the 2010 to 2019 Australian Election Study surveys, combined with Freedom House regime classifications of migrant origin countries, we examine migrant attitudes towards Australian democracy. The results show that while migrants to Australia from other democratic countries have similar attitudes to those born in Australia, those from less democratic countries have higher levels of political trust and satisfaction with democracy. This suggests that despite political exclusion, migrants from less democratic countries are more allegiant citizens than those born in Australia or another democracy.

Are young Australians turning away from democracy?

ABSTRACT In most advanced democracies, the decline in electoral turnout has been disproportionately concentrated amongst young people. This study investigates whether young Australians are turning away from the principles and processes of democracy. If so, it further enquires which of the three highly collinear time effects – age, period and cohort (APC) – best explains youth disengagement. Existing works, which focus mostly on generational effects, fail to control for the confounding age and period effects. Using survey data from 2001 to 2019 in the Australian Election Study (AES) and applying multilevel models, this study disentangles the three-time effects. The findings suggest that young Australians are no different from older people and older cohorts in their commitment to principles and both traditional and contemporary (online) processes of democracy. Instead, period effects – that is, short-term political, economic and social context – best explain democratic attitudes and behaviours in Australia.

The effect of public opinion and politics on attitudes towards pill testing: Results from the 2019 Australian Election Study.

Following several deaths due to drug overdoses at music festivals in Australia, pill testing (or drug checking) has been proposed as a means of reducing the risk to young people. However, pill testing is a politically controversial policy in Australia. This paper examines the political dimension to the debate, its relationship with other social issues and how it divides party supporters. The data come from the 2019 Australian Election Study survey-a large (n = 2179), nationally weighted representative probability survey conducted immediately after the federal election. Bivariate and multivariate analyses are used to identify the social groups, attitudes and vote preferences most associated with public views about pill testing. Almost two-thirds of the public support pill testing at music festivals. The young and those who do not attend church are most likely to express support. Supporters of other liberal social opinions, such as the legalisation of marijuana, are also strongly supportive of pill testing. Those who vote for one of the two main conservative parties are less likely to support pill testing. While a majority of the public support pill testing, beyond the Australian Capital Territory this has not translated into policy in other jurisdictions. The results show that there is a high level of political polarisation surrounding opinions among both voters and political elites. This issue must be addressed if the policy is to be advanced as part of an overall harm reduction approach to drug use.

Impartiality and public sector employees’ online political activity: evidence from three Australian elections

Fearing that public servants’ reputation for impartiality may decline if they are politically active on social media, many governments have recently produced guidelines limiting the political rights of bureaucrats to be active online. Despite the seriousness of these restrictions, we presently know very little about public sector employees’ online political activity. Using survey data from the 2010, 2013 and 2016 Australian Election Study this article advances research, and enlightens contemporary debate, by investigating public sector employees’ online political activity over time. Drawing upon public service motivation theory, this study formulates and examines five hypotheses: (1) whether public sector employees are politically active online less than private sector employees; (2) whether public sector employees with a high attraction to politics—an important dimension of public service motivation—are less politically active online; (3) whether public sector employees are less likely to be active online when actions use official political or campaign material; (4) whether the rank of public sector employees has a negative relationship with online political activity; and (5), whether these behaviors have changed over time. Results from various regression models show that overtime public sector employment went from having a positive association with online political activity, to having a negative association. This negative relationship is particularly strong for activities using official political/campaign material and for employees in higher ranks. Finally, a public sector employee’s attraction to politics is positively associated with online political activity, although, when compared to private sector employees, this relationship has not increased over time.

Does descriptive representation increase perceptions of legitimacy? Evidence from Australia

ABSTRACT How does the descriptive representation of ethnic minorities affect how voters feel about the responsiveness of government? While there are many theoretical arguments that descriptive representation increases perceptions of legitimacy, the empirical evidence of this link is limited. We use survey data from the Australian Election Study and a separate conjoint experiment to evaluate whether the presence of ethnic minority candidates changes voters’ perceptions of government responsiveness. We find ethnic minority Australians do not appear to have higher levels of external efficacy when voting for an ethnic minority candidate. By contrast, white-Anglo respondents have lower levels of external efficacy when voting for a non-Anglo candidate. The results inform the continuing debate on how group consciousness affects political behavior.

Unattached and unconvinced: Australian non‐partisans

AbstractPolitical party identification is a strong predictor of political behaviour and social attitudes in advanced industrialised democracies. Australian Election Study data show declining identification with major parties over time, and that working‐class Australians, those who do not identify with any class, the secular and the politically uninterested are most likely to be non‐partisans. However, national samples rarely allow for detailed analysis of younger people, given the low numbers of younger people they contain. Longitudinal data from the Social Futures and Life Pathways (“Our Lives”) project enable us to focus upon young Australians aged 24 living in the state of Queensland. The Queensland data show that younger non‐partisans tend to lack post‐secondary education, are on lower incomes, are less interested in politics and, importantly, have non‐aligned parents. Nationally, non‐partisans were less likely than partisans to pay attention to politics during the 2016 Federal Election, but more likely to decide how to vote on the day of the Federal Election and more likely than partisans to vote informal. Younger non‐partisans were also less likely to engage in non‐electoral political actions, such as signing e‐petitions or posting in online forums or social networking sites.

Policies and performance in the 2019 Australian federal election

ABSTRACT The Liberal–National Coalition success in the 2019 Australian federal election surprised many observers, with the opinion polls consistently predicting a Labor victory. The election was notable for Labor’s proposals for wide-ranging tax changes, a historically unpopular Labor leader, and the fourth change of prime minister outside an election since 2010. Using the 2019 Australian Election Study, we test the influence of two models of voting, the first based on ideology together with an emphasis on policy, and the second on performance. The results show that performance was the dominant explanation for the result, with evaluations of party competence and leader popularity playing a major role in explaining voting behaviour in the election, both of which benefitted the Coalition.

Inequality and attitudes toward immigration: the native-immigrant gap in Australia

ABSTRACT How does local economic inequality affect the native-immigrant gap in immigration attitudes? Existing studies do not distinguish between native and immigrant citizens, which is problematic because immigrants represent an increasing share of the population and voting public. Immigrant citizens, as legal residents, receive the same legal and social protections as native citizens. However, as an out-group, they are less likely to be attached to the national and cultural identity of a host country. This paper uses the Australian Election Study to show that immigrant citizens prioritise cultural or psychological considerations in forming immigration attitudes. As local economic inequality rises, immigrant citizens’ support for immigration strengthens regardless of their country of origin, reason for migration and length of stay in Australia.

Government performance and dissatisfaction with democracy in Australia

ABSTRACT Satisfaction with democracy has declined rapidly in Australia, reaching the lowest level recorded since the 1970s in 2019. Whereas Australian citizens used to be among the most satisfied democrats in the world, there is now evidence of widespread dissatisfaction. What explains this rapid decline in political support? Comparative studies emphasise the role of government performance, both political and economic, in shaping citizens’ attitudes towards the political system. This paper examines the role of government performance in shaping satisfaction with democracy in Australia, using Australian Election Study data from 1996 to 2019. The results demonstrate that frequent changes of prime minister, which a majority of voters disapproved of, and rising economic pessimism contributed to the decline of democratic satisfaction in Australia.

Explaining high rates of political participation among Chinese migrants to Australia

Studies of political participation regularly observe the underrepresentation of immigrant citizens and ethnic minorities. In contrast, evidence from Australia suggests that immigrant Australians are overrepresented in certain forms of participation, including donating money and working for a party or candidate. Drawing on major theories of ethnic political participation (including socialisation, recruitment and clientelism), this study uses 2013 Australian Election Study data to show that China-born migrants to Australia participate at higher rates than native-born and other migrant citizens. The study finds support for two explanatory theories: (a) that contributions of money by recently-arrived migrants are an aspect of clientelist relationships between migrants and legislators; and (b) that political interest in and knowledge of the host country’s political system are not necessary, and indeed perhaps even depress participation among newly-arrived migrants. These findings suggest an under-explored vein of transactional politics within established democratic systems.