Austral Autumn Research Articles

Analysis of the Ocean–Atmosphere Interface in the Brazil Current Region

ABSTRACTThe Brazil current (BC) is a westerly current that flows south along the Brazilian coast, being part of the Southern Brazilian Continental Shelf (SBCS). Recent studies have indicated a trend towards intensification and a shift to the south of the region where this current predominates. We analysed the seasonality of the relationship between atmospheric variables and sea surface temperature (SST) with potential trends and changes in the spatio‐temporal pattern of these variables from 1980 to 2020 over the BCs area in the South Atlantic Ocean. For this purpose, monthly data on SST, air temperature at 2 m above the surface (T2M), mean sea level pressure (MSLP), zonal wind (U10) and meridional wind (V10), obtained from ERA5 reanalysis, were used. Descriptive statistical analyses, trends using the Mann‐Kendall test, correlation matrices and Pettitt's test revealed a significant spatial correlation between the variables, with temporal trends of variation, especially over the BCs area. The meridional (zonal) wind predominantly exhibited a north–south (west–east) direction, supporting the hypothesis that the study region was displaced. Additionally, statistically significant positive trends were observed for SST (0.02°C ∙ dec−1 in austral autumn, winter and spring and 0.01°C ∙ dec−1 in austral summer), T2M (0.02°C ∙ dec−1 in austral winter and spring), MSLP (0.05°C ∙ dec−1 in austral autumn) and negative for U10 (−0.01°C ∙ dec−1 in austral spring). Pettitt's test results confirm significant changes in the behaviour of most analysed variables from the late 1990s to the early 2000s. The post‐breakpoint periods of the variables consistently showed above‐average values compared to the pre‐breakpoint periods, supporting positive upward trends consistent with literature findings. In particular, they highlight the notable upward slope in SST in the BC region.

Record-low Antarctic sea ice in 2023 increased ocean heat loss and storms

Recent Antarctic sea-ice decline is a substantial source of concern, notably the record low in 2023 (ref. 1). Progress has been made towards establishing the causes of ice loss1, 2, 3, 4–5 but uncertainty remains about its consequences for ocean–atmosphere interaction. Resolution of this uncertainty is important as ice decline can substantially alter surface heat loss and thus the ocean and atmosphere6. Here we show that the strongest winter 2023 ice-retraction regions provide an important new source of turbulent ocean heat loss to the atmosphere in wintertime. Ice concentration in these regions (located primarily in the Weddell, Bellingshausen and Ross seas) is reduced by up to 80% and is accompanied by an unprecedented doubling of mid-winter ocean heat loss. Also, there is a phase shift in the time of peak heat loss from late April to mid-June, with weaker than normal heat loss in austral autumn. The winter surface-heat-loss intensification is accompanied by substantial changes on both sides of the ocean–atmosphere interface. These include increases in atmospheric-storm frequency and surface-heat-loss-driven dense water formation, although the implications of the densification for broader processes such as Antarctic bottom water formation remain unclear. Our results reveal that the 2023 Antarctic sea-ice loss has substantially modified air–sea interaction in the Southern Ocean and motivate in-depth analysis of the wider climate-system impacts.

Upper-ocean processes and sea ice production in the southeastern Amundsen Sea Polynya in austral autumn

Abstract The mixed layer of polynyas is vital for local climate as it determines the exchange of properties and energy between ocean, sea ice and atmosphere. However, its evolution is poorly understood, as it is controlled by complex interactions among these components, yet highly under-sampled, especially outside summer. Here we present a two-month, high vertical resolution, full-depth hydrographic dataset from the southeastern Amundsen Sea Polynya in austral autumn (mid-February to mid-April 2014) collected by a recovered seal tag. This novel dataset quantifies the changes in upper ocean temperature and salinity stratification in this previously unobserved season. Our seal-tag measurements reveal that the mixed layer experiences deepening, salinification, and intense heat loss through surface fluxes. Heat and salt budgets suggest a sea ice formation rate of ∼3 cm per day. We use a one-dimensional model to reproduce the mixed-layer evolution and further identify key controls on its characteristics. Our experiments with a range of reduced or amplified air-sea fluxes show that heat loss to the atmosphere and related sea ice formation are the principal determinants of stratification evolution. Additionally, our modelling demonstrates that horizontal advection is required to fully explain the mixed-layer evolution, underlining the importance of the ice-covered neighbouring region for determining sea ice formation rates in the Amundsen Sea polynya. Our findings suggest that the potential overestimation of sea ice production by satellite-based methods, due to the absence of oceanic heat flux, could be offset by horizontal advection inhibiting mixed layer deepening and sustaining sea ice formation.

Seasonal climate summary southern hemisphere (autumn 2020): another coral bleaching event for the Great Barrier Reef without an active El Niño

Austral autumn 2020, inclusive of the months March, April and May, followed a period of hot and dry conditions over summer that led to high bushfire risk in Australia due to a strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole. The autumn period was also warmer and drier than average overall with strong differences across the states. Notable exceptions were rainfall across New South Wales, Tasmania and Victoria, and rainfall associated with Tropical Cyclone Esther near the Pilbara and the Northern Territory Top End. Overall, Australia maximum mean temperatures were +0.65°C above average, with Western Australia in the top 10 recorded temperatures at +1.53°C above average. South-east Australian rainfall led to flooding and extinguished the remaining fires of the 2019–2020 bushfire season. The rainfall did not reach coastal regions of south-east Queensland where severe rainfall deficiencies persisted. Autumn 2020 was classified as neutral in terms of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and marks the second time that the Great Barrier Reef has experienced mass coral bleaching due to elevated ocean temperatures in an ENSO neutral year. Elevated sea surface temperatures in the Coral Sea are largely attributed to a general warming trend in the region. Antarctic sea ice extent went from below average to close to average by the end of May 2020, aided by a positive Southern Annular Mode. At the end of autumn 2020, there were early signs of a La Niña event building, with negative temperature anomalies in the subsurface and cooling of sea surface temperatures along equatorial Pacific.

Synchronous decadal climate variability in the tropical Central Pacific and tropical South Atlantic

Pantropical climate interactions across ocean basins operate on a wide range of timescales and can improve the accuracy of climate predictions. Here, we show in observations that Central Pacific (CP) El Niño-like sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies have coevolved with tropical South Atlantic SST anomalies on a quasi-decadal (~10-year) timescale over the past seven decades. During the austral autumn–winter season, decadal warm SSTs in the tropical CP effectively induce tropical SST cooling in the South Atlantic, mainly by strengthening the South Atlantic subtropical anticyclone via an extratropical atmospheric wave teleconnection in the southern hemisphere. Partially coupled pacemaker simulations corroborate the observational findings, indicating that tropical CP decadal SSTs play a primary pacing role, while Atlantic feedback is of secondary importance throughout the study period. Our results suggest that the tropical CP could be an important source of decadal predictability for tropical South Atlantic SST and the surrounding climate.

Climate change is associated with higher phytoplankton biomass and longer blooms in the West Antarctic Peninsula

The Antarctic Peninsula (West Antarctica) marine ecosystem has undergone substantial changes due to climate-induced shifts in atmospheric and oceanic temperatures since the 1950s. Using 25 years of satellite data (1998-2022), this study presents evidence that phytoplankton biomass and bloom phenology in the West Antarctic Peninsula are significantly changing as a response to anthropogenic climate change. Enhanced phytoplankton biomass was observed along the West Antarctic Peninsula, particularly in the early austral autumn, resulting in longer blooms. Long-term sea ice decline was identified as the main driver enabling phytoplankton growth in early spring and autumn, in parallel with a recent intensification of the Southern Annular Mode (2010-ongoing), which was observed to influence regional variability. Our findings contribute to the understanding of the complex interplay between environmental changes and phytoplankton responses in this climatically key region of the Southern Ocean and raise important questions regarding the far-reaching consequences that these ecological changes may have on global carbon sequestration and Antarctic food webs in the future.

Evaluating the Seasonal Responses of Southern Ocean Sea Surface Temperature to Southern Annular Mode in CMIP6 Models

AbstractUsing observations and CMIP6 historical simulations, the seasonal responses of Southern Ocean (50°S–70°S) sea surface temperature (SST) to Southern Annular Mode (SAM) variations are investigated in this study. The results suggest that the averaged Southern Ocean SST in austral spring and summer show a significant cooling in response to a positive SAM, while the responses in austral autumn and winter are negligible. The cooling effect is resulted from the cold water in higher latitudes and deeper oceans brought by the equatorward Ekman transport and the Ekman pumping associated with the positive SAM. Among CMIP6 models, the magnitude of the simulated cooling response connects to the climatological meridional and vertical ocean temperature gradients, and the magnitude of Ekman motion in response to SAM. In addition, the spring and summer SAM plays a more important role in modulating Southern Ocean SST in autumn and winter than the autumn and winter SAM.

Southern Hemisphere Circumpolar Wavenumber‐4 Pattern Simulated in SINTEX‐F2 Coupled Model

AbstractInterannual sea surface temperature (SST) variations in the subtropical‐midlatitude Southern Hemisphere are often associated with a circumpolar wavenumber‐4 (W4) pattern. This study is the first attempt to successfully simulate the SST‐W4 pattern using a state‐of‐the‐art coupled model called SINTEX‐F2 and clarify the underlying physical processes. It is found that the SST variability in the southwestern subtropical Pacific (SWSP) plays a key role in triggering atmospheric variability and generating the SST‐W4 pattern during austral summer (December‐February). In contrast, the tropical SST variability has a very limited effect. The anomalous convection and associated divergence over the SWSP induce atmospheric Rossby waves confined in the westerly jet. Then, the synoptic disturbances circumnavigate the subtropical Southern Hemisphere, establishing an atmospheric W4 pattern. The atmospheric W4 pattern has an equivalent barotropic structure in the troposphere, and it interacts with the upper ocean, causing variations in mixed layer depth due to latent heat flux (LHF) anomalies. As incoming climatological solar radiation goes into a thinner (thicker) mixed layer, the shallower (deeper) mixed layer promotes surface warming (cooling). This leads to positive (negative) SST anomalies, developing the SST‐W4 pattern during austral summer. Subsequently, anomalous entrainment due to the temperature difference between the mixed layer and the water below the mixed layer, anomalous LHF, and disappearance of the overlying atmospheric W4 pattern cause the decay of the SST‐W4 pattern during austral autumn. These results indicate that accurate simulation of the atmospheric forcing and the associated atmosphere‐ocean interaction is essential to capture the SST‐W4 pattern in coupled models.

Life-history parameters of adult females of Merluccius capensis (Gadidae) off the south coast of South Africa.

This study explores the life-history parameters of female Merluccius capensis off South Africa (N = 1819) during 2014-2016, including gonadosomatic index (GSI), length-at-maturity, length-weight relationships, and condition indices (relative condition [k] and Fulton's condition factor [K]). We detected weak indications of two peaks of spawning within the year, the first in austral autumn from March to May, whereas the other in austral spring around August. GSI was slightly higher in spring and autumn, though still low at all maturity stages (≤7%), though the opposite was true for the actively spawning stage (≥7%) as well as access to less such data during winter- and summertime. The length (L) at 50% maturity was around 38 cm (L50), though differences occurred between the two applied staging methods, histology and visual (macroscopic) classification, when L approached infinity. The latter method presented underestimated length at maturity values at the 75 and 95 percentiles (48 and 60 cm) compared to the corresponding percentiles given by histology (50 and 65 cm). There were trivial across-method differences in L50. However, we found a clear reduction in L50 in view of published information in prior years when this estimate was 48 (1985), 42 (2008), 53 (2011), and 24.8 (2015) cm. Overall, L explained 90% of the variation in whole body weight (W). As the bootstrapped, grand mean growth coefficient was b = 2.98, indicating a slight allometric growth function, there were no significant variations between years, though an isometric growth existed for 2016 with b = 3.0, whereas for 2014 and 2015 this b was 2.98 and 2.93, respectively. In terms of demography, females <60 cm generally showed isometric growth (b = 3) as opposed to allometric growth (b = 2.95) at >60 cm. The relative condition index (k = 1) exhibited higher values than Fulton's K, which was 0.80. Overall, the maternal stock of M. capensis along the south coast seems to be in good condition and likely spawns throughout the year, but we found that the macroscopic data tend to give biased maturity ogives.

Contributions of Initial Conditions and Meteorological Forecast to Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Hydrological Forecast Skill in Western Tropical South America.

Hydrological predictions at subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) time scales can support improved decision-making in climate-dependent sectors like agriculture and hydropower. Here, we present an S2S hydrological forecasting system (S2S-HFS) for western tropical South America (WTSA). The system uses the global NASA Goddard Earth Observing System S2S meteorological forecast system (GEOS-S2S) in combination with the generalized analog regression downscaling algorithm and the NASA Land Information System (LIS). In this implementation study, we evaluate system performance for 3-month hydrological forecasts for the austral autumn season (March-May) using ensemble hindcasts for 2002-17. Results indicate that the S2S-HFS generally offers skill in predictions of monthly precipitation up to 1-month lead, evapotranspiration up to 2 months lead, and soil moisture content up to 3 months lead. Ecoregions with better hindcast performance are located either in the coastal lowlands or in the Amazon lowland forest. We perform dedicated analysis to understand how two important teleconnections affecting the region are represented in the S2S-HFS: El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO). We find that forecast skill for all variables at 1-month lead is enhanced during the positive phase of ENSO and the negative phase of AAO. Overall, this study indicates that there is meaningful skill in the S2S-HFS for many ecoregions in WTSA, particularly for long memory variables such as soil moisture. The skill of the precipitation forecast, however, decays rapidly after forecast initialization, a phenomenon that is consistent with S2S meteorological forecasts over much of the world.

Estimated reproductive parameters for a vulnerable Australian humpback dolphin population

AbstractUnderstanding reproductive output and success is integral to the conservation and management of threatened species and populations. Little is known about the reproductive parameters of Australian humpback dolphins (Sousa sahulensis), a species subject to cumulative pressures from anthropogenic threats due to their coastal distribution and strong site fidelity. This study assesses several reproductive parameters, including crude birth, recruitment, fecundity, and calf survival rates, in addition to interbirth intervals of Australian humpback dolphins inhabiting the near‐urban embayment of Moreton Bay, Queensland. Between 2014 and 2020, 106 adult females were photographically identified during 222 boat surveys. Of these, 75.5% (n = 80) were observed with calves. Birth seasonality was apparent and coincided with austral autumn and winter months. Interbirth intervals ranged between 1 and &gt;6 years, with an average of 3.1 (SD = 1.1) years if offspring survived. Findings indicate declining fecundity rates (p &lt; .05, M = 0.12, SD = 0.02), relatively low recruitment rates (M = 0.04, SD = 0.01) and calf survival rates to 1 year of age (M = 0.63, SD = 0.15). This study provides a useful baseline that can inform viability assessments and conservation measures, for both this population and others throughout the species range.

Size structure, age, and growth of the blue shark, Prionace glauca (Linnaeus, 1758) in southern Brazil.

The blue shark is a highly migratory species with a worldwide distribution, making it susceptible to multiple fishing fleets across the globe. In southern Brazil, it is an important target, comprising up to 40% of the total biomass landed by the commercial surface longline fleet. This study aims to contribute to a better understanding of how the species uses the region and to update its life-history information available for future assessments. Over five consecutive years (2018-2022) of landings and onboard monitoring, we gathered size data and vertebral samples to describe the species size composition in the region, as well as its seasonal and interannual variability and to update estimated life-history parameters. The results showed that southern Brazil is mainly inhabited by large juvenile males that arrive during winter (July-September) and stay until spring (October-December), when their frequency decreases. Small adult males are present throughout the year but in higher frequencies during summer. A small number of adult females are present with higher frequencies during spring and summer, which decreases during the austral autumn and winter. Some variability in the presence of each life stage was observed among years. The estimated life-history parameters were as follows: L∞: 255.02 cm fork length (FL), k: 0.20, L0:35.68 cm FL for males; L∞: 246.47 cm FL, k: 0.23, L0:36.77 cm FL for females; and L∞: 269.58 cm FL, k: 0.18, L0:36.19 cm FL for pooled sexes. However, the estimated values must be cautiously interpreted, as the obtained samples cannot be construed as representative of the entire harvested stock due to the lack of consistent presence of some life stages in the study region.

Spatiotemporal variations in glacier area and surface velocity of the northern Antarctic Peninsula during 2018–2022

Ice sheet serves as a crucial indicator for assessing climate change. Mass loss in recent remote sensing-based studies indicated that the Antarctic Peninsula has rapid rates of glacier retreat and speed up of surface velocity. However, observations of seasonal variability of ice speed are limited, and glacier-area changes require multi-temporal monitoring. This study investigated the changes in area and surface velocities of ∼375 glaciers on the northern Antarctic Peninsula (NAP) utilizing satellite images acquired by the Sentinel 1&2 satellites during 2018–2022. The results indicate that the glacier area reduced by approximately 166.1 ± 44.2 km2 (−0.2% ± 0.1% per year) during the study period, with an acceleration after 2020 (−0.4% ± 0.3% per year), and the most dramatic reduction happened on the eastern NAP. The maximum annual ice speeds on the NAP generally exceeded 3500 m per year, while the ice speeds in 2021 were the highest (exceeded 4210 m per year). The ice speed variability in austral autumn was higher than in other seasons, meanwhile the summer ice speeds showed an increasing trend. The glacier G012158E47018N, McNeile Glacier, glacier G299637E64094S and Drygalski Glacier showed the most remarkable ice speed variations represented by high daily velocities and strong fluctuations on their termini. Our results demonstrated that the variations in glacier area and seasonal ice speed on the NAP were responsive to the ice–ocean–atmosphere processes. Therefore, seasonal velocity and area variations should be considered when conducting accurate mass balance calculations, model validations and change mechanism analyses under climate warming scenarios.

Central Chile comprises a previously unknown nonbreeding area for the migratory population of Turkey Vulture (Cathartes aura ruficollis) breeding in the northwestern Argentine Patagonia

ABSTRACT Bird migration in the Neotropics is complex and highly diverse. Indeed, for many taxa, basic questions such as where they go are still relevant. Satellite-tracking studies of Turkey Vulture (Cathartes aura) migration have revealed extensive variability in their movement strategies, contributing to their widespread distribution. However, South American migratory populations are still among the least explored. By integrating five years of satellite-tracking data, citizen science databases and classical raptor monitoring techniques, we present a case study reporting a hitherto unknown nonbreeding area for the Turkey Vulture subspecies ruficollis. Specifically, we document that a minor proportion of the population that breeds in northwestern Argentine Patagonia migrates northwards to central Chile at the beginning of the austral autumn. Our findings improve our basic knowledge of the Turkey Vulture migration within the Neotropics and establish a baseline to study the movement strategies of the migratory ruficollis populations breeding in high latitudes of South America.

Fishing behaviour and environmental variability influence depredation of pelagic longline catch by toothed whales

Depredation is a threat to the socioeconomic and ecological sustainability of pelagic longline fisheries, globally. Toothed whales (odontocetes) are anecdotally reported as responsible for annual revenue losses of AU$10–12 million in Australia’s Eastern Tuna and Billfish Fishery (ETBF), presenting a challenge for industry and management in developing avoidance and mitigation techniques. We trialled the use of electronic monitoring footage as a timely and cost-effective method for quantifying odontocete depredation interactions. Between March and July 2023, a mean of 5% of total catch of each set sampled (n = 27) was lost to odontocete depredation, but this was highly variable among sets (0 – 24% of catch). We used generalised additive models (GAMs) to explore the effects of operational, spatiotemporal and environmental factors on depredation rates. Our results reveal that odontocete depredation is more likely to occur when: (i) hauling process is initiated at night and completed after dawn, (ii) lines are set at shallower depths, (iii) light-sticks are used, (iv) sea-surface temperature is warmer, (v) lines are set and hauled between 24° and 27°S, and (vi) lines are set and hauled during Austral autumn. It remains difficult to disentangle the effects of spatial and temporal drivers due to our relatively small sample size, however, our work provides actionable information to guide fisher interaction-avoidance tactics and help promote fishery sustainability.

Possible transport pathway of diazotrophic Trichodesmium by Agulhas Leakage from the Indian into the Atlantic Ocean.

Diazotrophic cyanobacteria such as Trichodesmium play a crucial role in the nitrogen budget of the oceans due to their capability to bind atmospheric nitrogen. Little is known about their interoceanic transport pathways and their distribution in upwelling regions. Trichodesmium has been detected using a Video Plankton Recorder (VPR) mounted on a remotely operated towed vehicle (TRIAXUS) in the southern and northern Benguela Upwelling System (BUS) in austral autumn, Feb/Mar 2019. The TRIAXUS, equipped with a CTD as well as fluorescence and nitrogen sensors, was towed at a speed of 8 kn on two onshore-offshore transects undulating between 5 and 200m over distances of 249km and 372km, respectively. Trichodesmium was not detected near the coast in areas of freshly upwelled waters but was found in higher abundances offshore on both transects, mainly in subsurface water layers down to 80m depth with elevated salinities. These salinity lenses can be related to northward moving eddies that most probably have been detached from the warm and salty Agulhas Current. Testing for interaction and species-habitat associations of Trichodesmium colonies with salinity yielded significant results, indicating that Trichodesmium may be transported with Agulhas Rings from the Indian Ocean into the Atlantic Ocean.

Assessment of the Intertropical Convergence Zone over the Atlantic Ocean through an Algorithm Based on Precipitation

The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is a key atmospheric system on a global scale, primarily driven by trade wind convergence near the equator. The ITCZ plays a crucial role in modulating the climate of the borders of tropical continental areas. For instance, Northeastern Brazil experiences a climate influenced by the ITCZ over the Atlantic Ocean. In some periods, the ITCZ exhibits double bands, known as the double ITCZ. While the features of the ITCZ have been described using various approaches and atmospheric variables, there is still a lack of regional studies focusing on the ITCZ and double ITCZ in the Atlantic Ocean. In this context, the main goals of this study are (1) to describe a simple algorithm based on precipitation to identify the ITCZ and double ITCZ, (2) to present a climatology (1997–2022) of the position, width, and intensity of these two convective bands, and (3) to investigate variabilities in the ITCZ characteristics associated with anomalies of sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Pacific and Atlantic oceans. The double ITCZ typically occurs southward of the main cloud band, and between February and April, both bands are more distant (~4.5°). In the western sector of the Atlantic Ocean, the ITCZ and its double band extend to more southerly latitudes in austral autumn. Considering the entire Atlantic basin, the annual mean of the latitudinal position, width, and intensity of the ITCZ is 4.9°N, 4.2°, and 11 mm/day, respectively, while for the double ITCZ, it is 0.4°N, 2.6°, 10.3 mm/day, respectively. While the SST anomalies in the Pacific Ocean (El Niño and La Niña episodes) affect more the ITCZ width, the SST anomalies in the Tropical South Atlantic affect both its position and width.

Assessment of the Intertropical Convergence Zone over the Atlantic Ocean through an Algorithm Based on Precipitation

The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is a key atmospheric system on a global scale, primarily driven by trade wind convergence near the equator. The ITCZ plays a crucial role in modulating the climate of the borders of tropical continental areas. For instance, Northeastern Brazil experiences a climate influenced by the ITCZ over the Atlantic Ocean. In some periods, the ITCZ exhibits double bands, known as the double ITCZ. While the features of the ITCZ have been described using various approaches and atmospheric variables, there is still a lack of regional studies focusing on the ITCZ and double ITCZ in the Atlantic Ocean. In this context, the main goals of this study are (1) to describe a simple algorithm based on precipitation to identify the ITCZ and double ITCZ, (2) to present a climatology (1997–2022) of the position, width, and intensity of these two convective bands, and (3) to investigate variabilities in the ITCZ characteristics associated with anomalies of sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Pacific and Atlantic oceans. The double ITCZ typically occurs southward of the main cloud band, and between February and April, both bands are more distant (~4.5°). In the western sector of the Atlantic Ocean, the ITCZ and its double band extend to more southerly latitudes in austral autumn. Considering the entire Atlantic basin, the annual mean of the latitudinal position, width, and intensity of the ITCZ is 4.9°N, 4.2°, and 11 mm/day, respectively, while for the double ITCZ, it is 0.4°N, 2.6°, 10.3 mm/day, respectively. While the SST anomalies in the Pacific Ocean (El Niño and La Niña episodes) affect more the ITCZ width, the SST anomalies in the Tropical South Atlantic affect both its position and width.

Snow Accumulation Variability at the South Pole From 1983 to 2020, Associated With Central Tropical Pacific Forcing

AbstractDespite a variety of efforts made to measure snow accumulation at the South Pole (SP), snow accumulation changes and their mechanism have not yet been fully explained. Here, SP stake farm measurements, global sea surface temperature observations, and atmospheric circulation data from European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis version 5 were used to investigate the annual and seasonal snow accumulation changes at the SP during 1983–2020, and their association with central tropical Pacific Sea surface temperature variations. SP annual snow accumulation decreased significantly for the 1983–2007 period at a rate of −39.7 ± 1.4 mm decade−1, but switched to a dramatically positive trend during 2008–2020 (108.7 ± 2.7 mm decade−1), with the strongest increase in the austral autumn. The switch to a dramatically upward trend can largely be attributed to a cyclonic anomaly over the South Atlantic and an anticyclonic anomaly over the Drake Passage, causing the enhanced advection of warm and wet air into the SP. These circulation patterns were generated by an atmospheric Rossby wave train forced by rapid warming in the central tropical Pacific during 2008–2020.

Projection on elevation-dependent and latitude-dependent warming over Antarctica from CMIP6 under different socioeconomic scenarios

Many studies have focused on elevation-dependent warming (EDW) across high mountains, but few studies have examined both EDW and LDW (latitude-dependent warming) on Antarctic warming. This study analyzed the Antarctic amplification (AnA) with respect to EDW and LDW under SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, SSP3–7.0 and SSP5–8.5 from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) during the period 2015–2100. The results show that the AnA appears under all socioeconomic scenarios, and the greatest signal appears in austral autumn. In the future, Antarctic warming is not only elevation-dependent, but also latitude-dependent. Generally, positive EDW of mean temperature (Tmean), maximum temperature (Tmax) and minimum temperature (Tmin) appear in the range of 1.0–4.5 km, and the corresponding altitudinal amplification trends are 0.012/0.012/0.011 (SSP1–2.6)—0.064/0.065/0.053 (SSP5–8.5) °C decade−1•km−1. Antarctic EDW demonstrates seasonal differences, and is strong in summer and autumn and weak in winter under SSP3–7.0 and SSP5–8.5. For Tmean, Tmax and Tmin, the feature of LDW is varies in different latitude ranges, and also shows seasonal differences. The strongest LDW signal appears in autumn, and the warming rate increases with increasing latitude at 64–79°S under SSP1–2.6. The similar phenomenon can be observed at 68–87°S in the other cases. Moreover, the latitude component contributes more to the warming of Tmean and Tmax relative to the corresponding altitude component, which may relates to the much larger range of latitude (∼2600 km) than altitude (∼4.5 km) over Antarctica, while the EDW contributes more warming than LDW in the changes in Tmin in austral summer. Moreover, surface downwelling longwave radiation, water vapor and latent heat flux are the potential factors influencing Antarctic EDW, and the variation in surface downwelling longwave radiation can also be considered as an important influencing factor for Antarctic LDW. Our results provide preliminary insights into EDW and LDW in Antarctica.