GIScience 2016 Short Paper Proceedings Predicting Influenza Dynamics using a Deep Learning Approach Shiran Zhong and Ling Bian University at Buffalo, the State University of New York, 105 Wilkson Quad, Buffalo, NY 14261 Email: shiranzh@buffalo.edu, lbian@buffalo.edu Abstract Disease transmission is a complex spatio-temporal process. A great number of approaches have been developed to predict influenza epidemics. Few of them have focused on the temporal dynamics of individual infected locations. Location networks, where locations are nodes and disease flows between them are links, provide a promising approach for such dynamic analyses, but also present challenges. In this study, we employ a deep learning approach to capture the dynamics of disease flows in location networks. We also analyze how the attributes of locations have an impact on the prediction accuracy via a sensitivity analysis. Introduction Disease transmission is a complex spatio-temporal process (Ferguson et al., 2005; Charaudeau et al. 2014). Among the prevailing approaches to predicting the dynamics of influenza epidemics, few have focused on the transmission at a location-specific scale. Location networks, where locations are nodes and disease flows between them are links, provide a promising basis for such dynamic analyses (Zhong and Bian 2016), but also present challenges as each location might have peaks and troughs of different magnitudes throughout the epidemic (Bian et al. 2012). Conventional approaches are not adequate to capture such complex, dynamic patterns. The objectives of this study are two-fold. We explore the use of Deep Convolutional Networks (DCN), a deep learning approach, to capture and predict disease flow dynamics represented by the presence of links between locations. We also analyze how the attributes of locations impact the prediction accuracy via a sensitivity analysis. Data and Study Area The dataset consists of 73 daily disease flow networks of an urban area. In these networks, all 1,026 location nodes remain the same across 73 days. Links can be present or absent depending on the occurrence of disease flow between locations on any particular day. The dataset was obtained from the China Information System for Diseases Control and Prevention. Methodology To achieve the objectives stated above, the methodology is divided into three parts: the first part describes the principle of DCN; the second part introduces the training and testing processes involved in the DCN; and the last part focuses on the sensitivity analysis. 3.1. Principle of DCN In contrast to classic neural networks which require good features for supervised training, DCN is a training process where good features could be automatically learned from input data (LeCun et al. 2015). The workflow of DCN in this study (Figure 1) contains three processes: 1) the convolution process, where a convolution filter is applied on the input data (in a format of matrix) in order to amplify the feature signal and suppress the noise; 2) the pooling process, which extracts features that represent location characteristics in the past few days; and 3) the training and testing process, where the learned features are used as input to predict the presence
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