Attributable Fraction Approach Research Articles

Economic Costs Attributed to Diagnosed Diabetes in Each U.S. State and the District of Columbia: 2021.

To update state-specific estimates of diabetes-attributable costs in the U.S. and assess changes in spending from 2013 to 2021. We used an attributable fraction approach to estimate direct medical costs of diagnosed diabetes using the 2021 State Health Expenditure Accounts, the 2021 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, and the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services 2018-2019 Minimum Data Set. We estimated diabetes-attributable productivity losses from morbidity and mortality using the 2016-2021 National Health Interview Survey and the 2021 mortality data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Costs were adjusted to 2021 U.S. dollars. Total diabetes-attributable cost in 2021 was $640 billion ($335 billion in direct medical costs and $305 billion in indirect costs). The median state-level total diabetes-attributable cost was $8.2 billion (range $842 million to $81 billion). The median state-level per-person cost was $21,082, ranging from $17,452 to $37,090. Total diabetes-attributable cost increased by a median of 33% between 2013 and 2021, ranging from 16 to 68% across states. Medical costs increased by 50% overall (range 33-79%) and by 27% (range 15-41%) for per person with diabetes. Costs paid by Medicaid experienced the highest increase between 2013 and 2021 (median 153%; range 41-483%). State economic costs of diagnosed diabetes are substantial and increased over the last decade. These costs and their growth vary considerably across states. These findings may help state policy makers in developing evidenced-based public health interventions in their respective states to prevent and control the prevalence of diabetes.

Global, regional, and national age-specific progress towards the 2020 milestones of the WHO End TB Strategy: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Global evaluations of the progress towards the WHO End TB Strategy 2020 interim milestones on mortality (35% reduction) and incidence (20% reduction) have not been age specific. We aimed to assess global, regional, and national-level burdens of and trends in tuberculosis and its risk factors across five separate age groups, from 1990 to 2021, and to report on age-specific progress between 2015 and 2020. We used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2021 (GBD 2021) analytical framework to compute age-specific tuberculosis mortality and incidence estimates for 204 countries and territories (1990-2021 inclusive). We quantified tuberculosis mortality among individuals without HIV co-infection using 22 603 site-years of vital registration data, 1718 site-years of verbal autopsy data, 825 site-years of sample-based vital registration data, 680 site-years of mortality surveillance data, and 9 site-years of minimally invasive tissue sample (MITS) diagnoses data as inputs into the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling platform. Age-specific HIV and tuberculosis deaths were established with a population attributable fraction approach. We analysed all available population-based data sources, including prevalence surveys, annual case notifications, tuberculin surveys, and tuberculosis mortality, in DisMod-MR 2.1 to produce internally consistent age-specific estimates of tuberculosis incidence, prevalence, and mortality. We also estimated age-specific tuberculosis mortality without HIV co-infection that is attributable to the independent and combined effects of three risk factors (smoking, alcohol use, and diabetes). As a secondary analysis, we examined the potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tuberculosis mortality without HIV co-infection by comparing expected tuberculosis deaths, modelled with trends in tuberculosis deaths from 2015 to 2019 in vital registration data, with observed tuberculosis deaths in 2020 and 2021 for countries with available cause-specific mortality data. We estimated 9·40 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 8·36 to 10·5) tuberculosis incident cases and 1·35 million (1·23 to 1·52) deaths due to tuberculosis in 2021. At the global level, the all-age tuberculosis incidence rate declined by 6·26% (5·27 to 7·25) between 2015 and 2020 (the WHO End TB strategy evaluation period). 15 of 204 countries achieved a 20% decrease in all-age tuberculosis incidence between 2015 and 2020, eight of which were in western sub-Saharan Africa. When stratified by age, global tuberculosis incidence rates decreased by 16·5% (14·8 to 18·4) in children younger than 5 years, 16·2% (14·2 to 17·9) in those aged 5-14 years, 6·29% (5·05 to 7·70) in those aged 15-49 years, 5·72% (4·02 to 7·39) in those aged 50-69 years, and 8·48% (6·74 to 10·4) in those aged 70 years and older, from 2015 to 2020. Global tuberculosis deaths decreased by 11·9% (5·77 to 17·0) from 2015 to 2020. 17 countries attained a 35% reduction in deaths due to tuberculosis between 2015 and 2020, most of which were in eastern Europe (six countries) and central Europe (four countries). There was variable progress by age: a 35·3% (26·7 to 41·7) decrease in tuberculosis deaths in children younger than 5 years, a 29·5% (25·5 to 34·1) decrease in those aged 5-14 years, a 15·2% (10·0 to 20·2) decrease in those aged 15-49 years, a 7·97% (0·472 to 14·1) decrease in those aged 50-69 years, and a 3·29% (-5·56 to 9·07) decrease in those aged 70 years and older. Removing the combined effects of the three attributable risk factors would have reduced the number of all-age tuberculosis deaths from 1·39 million (1·28 to 1·54) to 1·00 million (0·703 to 1·23) in 2020, representing a 36·5% (21·5 to 54·8) reduction in tuberculosis deaths compared to those observed in 2015. 41 countries were included in our analysis of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tuberculosis deaths without HIV co-infection in 2020, and 20 countries were included in the analysis for 2021. In 2020, 50 900 (95% CI 49 700 to 52 400) deaths were expected across all ages, compared to an observed 45 500 deaths, corresponding to 5340 (4070 to 6920) fewer deaths; in 2021, 39 600 (38 300 to 41 100) deaths were expected across all ages compared to an observed 39 000 deaths, corresponding to 657 (-713 to 2180) fewer deaths. Despite accelerated progress in reducing the global burden of tuberculosis in the past decade, the world did not attain the first interim milestones of the WHO End TB Strategy in 2020. The pace of decline has been unequal with respect to age, with older adults (ie, those aged >50 years) having the slowest progress. As countries refine their national tuberculosis programmes and recalibrate for achieving the 2035 targets, they could consider learning from the strategies of countries that achieved the 2020 milestones, as well as consider targeted interventions to improve outcomes in older age groups. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Air pollution costs in Western Balkans’ cities

Abstract Poor air quality is responsible for increased risk of mortality which global cost in in 2019 was associated with 4.1 million premature deaths globally. The Western Balkans were selected for this study because the levels of particulate matter and ozone are frequently above the EU Air Quality Directive guidelines. Air pollution health impact (mortality and morbidity) assessment was carried out using the attributable fraction approach based on different relative risk attribution methodologies: concentration response functions (CRF) and integrated exposure responses (IER). Air pollution costs were estimated using the value of statistical life (VSL) and the value of life year (VOLY) attributable to air pollution obtained with the benefit transfer method (BT) from a global database of non-market welfare-based unit costs. The health impact and related external costs attributable to air pollution in 2019 were assessed in 30 urban areas of the Western Balkans region, one of Europe's air pollution hot spots. The evaluation was based on PM2.5, O3 and NO2 concentrations in 2019. The average cost of mortality attributable to PM2.5 in 26 urban areas was above 200 million Euro per city while the ones of O3 and NO2 were 4 times lower than PM2.5. The study results suggest that the economic burden of air pollution per capita and compared to the GDP in the Western Balkans is higher than the one observed in EU27 in the same time window.

Health and Economic Outcomes Associated With Musculoskeletal Disorders Attributable to High Body Mass Index in 192 Countries and Territories in 2019

The degree to which health and economic outcomes of musculoskeletal disorders are attributable to high body mass index (BMI) has not been quantified on a global scale. To estimate global health and economic outcomes associated with musculoskeletal disorders-low back pain (LBP), gout, and osteoarthritis attributable to high BMI in 2019. This cross-sectional study used data of 192 countries and territories from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study, World Health Organization Global Health Expenditure, World Bank, and International Labour Organization databases. Data analyses were conducted from February 24 to June 16, 2022. Prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), health care costs, and productivity losses due to morbidity from LBP, gout, and osteoarthritis attributable to high BMI by region and country. Prevalence and YLDs were calculated with the population attributable fraction approach. The economic burden, including health care costs and productivity losses due to morbidity, was also quantified. Health care costs borne by the public, private, and out-of-pocket sectors were estimated based on their corresponding payment shares. Productivity losses were estimated based on the output per worker. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to arrive at the base, minimum, and maximum estimates (ie, uncertainty interval [UI]) by using the mean, lower, and upper bounds of all input variables. High BMI was estimated to be responsible for 36.3 million (UI, 18.4-61.0 million), 16.9 million (UI, 7.5-32.5 million), and 73.0 million (UI, 32.4-131.1 million) prevalent cases of LBP, gout, and osteoarthritis, respectively, which accounted for 7.3 million (UI, 3.0-15.0 million) YLDs across 192 countries and territories in 2019. Globally, the YLDs of musculoskeletal disorders attributable to high BMI accounted for 1.0% of all-cause YLDs in the working-age population aged 15 to 84 years. The global total costs of musculoskeletal disorders attributable to high BMI reached $180.7 billion (UI, $83.8-$333.1 billion), including $60.5 billion (UI, $30.7-$100.5 billion) in health care costs and $120.2 billion (UI, $53.1-$232.7 billion) in productivity losses. In terms of the global health care costs, 58.9% ($35.6 billion; UI, $17.8-$59.6 billion) was borne by the public sector, 24.0% ($14.5 billion; UI, $7.8-$23.2 billion) by the private sector, and 17.1% ($10.3 billion; UI, $5.1-$17.6 billion) by the out-of-pocket sector. On average, the total costs accounted for 0.2% of global gross domestic product. Great inequalities in the disease and economic burden existed across regions and countries. Nearly 80% of global health care (82.4%) and morbidity-related costs (82.9%) were paid by high-income countries, whereas more than 60% (61.4%) of global YLDs occurred in middle-income countries. In this cross-sectional study of 192 countries and territories, a substantial amount of the health and economic impact of musculoskeletal disorders was attributable to high BMI. Developing effective policies and active participation from health professionals to prevent excessive weight gain are needed. More available estimates are also needed to facilitate a global analysis.

P09-03 Costing the economic burden of sedentary behaviors in France

BackgroundThere is strong evidence showing that sedentary behaviour (SB) increase the risk to develop several chronic diseases and to premature death (Chau et al., 2015). A dose response relation is observed with a more marked risk when people spend more than 7 hours/day in sitting position (Ekelund et al., 2019). The study INCA 3 on the lifestyle habits of French population indicated that 40% of people between 18 and 79 years had a high risk for health conditions with more than 7 hours of daily SB (ANSES, 2017). The economic consequences of this risk have never been evaluated. The aim of this study was to estimate the economic burden of SB-related diseases in France.MethodsFrom meta-analysis or large cohorts based on individual SB time, we identified relative risk (RR) to develop cardiovascular disease (CVD), colon cancer, breast cancer and all-causes premature death after co-variables adjustments including physical activity. From RR and prevalence of SB time in France, a population attributable fraction approach was used to estimate the yearly number of cases for each disease. Data from the national health insurance were used to calculate the annual average costs per case for each disease. Then, disease-specific and total health-care costs attributable to prolonged SB time were calculated. Indirect costs for private sector and households were calculated in a second stage.ResultsIn France, 66 528 premature deaths/year appear related to a daily SB time ≥ 8,6 hours Each year prolonged SB cost 559 millions € for the national health insurance, including 359 millions € for CVD (≥ 10 hours of daily SB), 170 millions € for breast cancer (≥ 6 hours of daily SB), and 31 millions € for colon cancer (≥ 5 hours of TV/day).ConclusionsThese preliminary results showed that many deaths could be avoided by reducing prolonged SB prevalence in France. Moreover, direct health-care costs attributable to SB related diseases represent a high economic burden for the French health system. To address this issue, strong responses should be implemented to tackle SB, complementary to physical activity promotion.

Costing the economic burden of prolonged sedentary behaviours in France.

BackgroundThere is strong evidence showing that sedentary behaviour time increase the risk to develop several chronic diseases and to premature death. The economic consequences of this risk have never been evaluated in France. The aim of this study was to estimate the economic burden of prolonged sedentary behaviour in France.MethodsBased on individual sedentary behaviour time, relative risk to develop cardiovascular disease, colon cancer, breast cancer and all-causes of premature mortality were identified. From relative risk and prevalence of sedentary behaviour time, a population attributable fraction approach was used to estimate the yearly number of cases for each disease. Data from the National Health Insurance were used to calculate the annual average costs per case for each disease. Disease-specific and total healthcare costs attributable to prolonged sedentary behaviour time were calculated. Indirect costs from productivity loss due to morbidity and premature mortality were estimated using a friction cost approach.ResultsIn France, 51 193 premature deaths/year appear related to a prolonged daily sedentary behaviour time. Each year prolonged sedentary behaviour cost 494 million € for the national health insurance. Yearly productivity loss due to premature mortality attributable to prolonged sedentary behaviour cost 507 million € and yearly productivity loss due to morbidity cost between 43 and 147 million €.ConclusionSignificant saving and many deaths could be avoided by reducing prolonged sedentary behaviour prevalence in France. To address this issue, strong responses should be implemented to tackle sedentary behaviour, complementary to physical activity promotion.

An estimation of the social cost of illicit drug consumption in Catalonia.

Worldwide, as well as in Spain, the use of illegal drugs is among the major contributors to the global burden of disease. Quantifying the costs that illegal drugs impose on society is key in terms of decision-making. The objective of this paper is to estimate the social cost of illicit drug consumption in Catalonia for a specific year, and to establish a methodology to be able to replicate such estimations regularly and monitor properly the impact of national plans. To do that, a cost of illness study was performed. For the estimation of mortality and morbidity costs, we relied on the Attributable Fraction approach. Only public sector costs were included: healthcare and non-healthcare costs. The cost of illegal drug consumption in Catalonia in 2011 was estimated at €326.39 million (0.16% of the Catalan GDP in 2011; 0.15% in 2018). Of the total cost, 82% corresponded to direct costs. Among direct costs, 30.32% corresponded to the penal system, 15.99% to hospitalizations, 13.48% to the police force, 17.19% to pharmacy, 8.34% to treatment in specialized centres, and 5.74% to therapeutic communities, among others. Indirect costs represented 18% of total costs, mostly lost income due to drug-related death. This study has been an opportunity to systematically collect data and think about the potential economic returns that could be achieved from effective policies and programs aimed at reducing the consumption of illegal drugs.

Global, regional, and national sex differences in the global burden of tuberculosis by HIV status, 1990–2019: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

SummaryBackgroundTuberculosis is a major contributor to the global burden of disease, causing more than a million deaths annually. Given an emphasis on equity in access to diagnosis and treatment of tuberculosis in global health targets, evaluations of differences in tuberculosis burden by sex are crucial. We aimed to assess the levels and trends of the global burden of tuberculosis, with an emphasis on investigating differences in sex by HIV status for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019.MethodsWe used a Bayesian hierarchical Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) platform to analyse 21 505 site-years of vital registration data, 705 site-years of verbal autopsy data, 825 site-years of sample-based vital registration data, and 680 site-years of mortality surveillance data to estimate mortality due to tuberculosis among HIV-negative individuals. We used a population attributable fraction approach to estimate mortality related to HIV and tuberculosis coinfection. A compartmental meta-regression tool (DisMod-MR 2.1) was then used to synthesise all available data sources, including prevalence surveys, annual case notifications, population-based tuberculin surveys, and tuberculosis cause-specific mortality, to produce estimates of incidence, prevalence, and mortality that were internally consistent. We further estimated the fraction of tuberculosis mortality that is attributable to independent effects of risk factors, including smoking, alcohol use, and diabetes, for HIV-negative individuals. For individuals with HIV and tuberculosis coinfection, we assessed mortality attributable to HIV risk factors including unsafe sex, intimate partner violence (only estimated among females), and injection drug use. We present 95% uncertainty intervals for all estimates.FindingsGlobally, in 2019, among HIV-negative individuals, there were 1·18 million (95% uncertainty interval 1·08–1·29) deaths due to tuberculosis and 8·50 million (7·45–9·73) incident cases of tuberculosis. Among HIV-positive individuals, there were 217 000 (153 000–279 000) deaths due to tuberculosis and 1·15 million (1·01–1·32) incident cases in 2019. More deaths and incident cases occurred in males than in females among HIV-negative individuals globally in 2019, with 342 000 (234 000–425 000) more deaths and 1·01 million (0·82–1·23) more incident cases in males than in females. Among HIV-positive individuals, 6250 (1820–11 400) more deaths and 81 100 (63 300–100 000) more incident cases occurred among females than among males in 2019. Age-standardised mortality rates among HIV-negative males were more than two times greater in 105 countries and age-standardised incidence rates were more than 1·5 times greater in 74 countries than among HIV-negative females in 2019. The fraction of global tuberculosis deaths among HIV-negative individuals attributable to alcohol use, smoking, and diabetes was 4·27 (3·69–5·02), 6·17 (5·48–7·02), and 1·17 (1·07–1·28) times higher, respectively, among males than among females in 2019. Among individuals with HIV and tuberculosis coinfection, the fraction of mortality attributable to injection drug use was 2·23 (2·03–2·44) times greater among males than females, whereas the fraction due to unsafe sex was 1·06 (1·05–1·08) times greater among females than males.InterpretationAs countries refine national tuberculosis programmes and strategies to end the tuberculosis epidemic, the excess burden experienced by males is important. Interventions are needed to actively communicate, especially to men, the importance of early diagnosis and treatment. These interventions should occur in parallel with efforts to minimise excess HIV burden among women in the highest HIV burden countries that are contributing to excess HIV and tuberculosis coinfection burden for females. Placing a focus on tuberculosis burden among HIV-negative males and HIV and tuberculosis coinfection among females might help to diminish the overall burden of tuberculosis. This strategy will be crucial in reaching both equity and burden targets outlined by global health milestones.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Economic Costs Attributable to Diabetes in Each U.S. State.

To estimate direct medical and indirect costs attributable to diabetes in each U.S. state in total and per person with diabetes. We used an attributable fraction approach to estimate direct medical costs using data from the 2013 State Health Expenditure Accounts, 2013 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, and the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services' 2013-2014 Minimum Data Set. We used a human capital approach to estimate indirect costs measured by lost productivity from morbidity (absenteeism, presenteeism, lost household productivity, and inability to work) and premature mortality, using the 2008-2013 National Health Interview Survey, 2013 daily housework value data, 2013 mortality data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research, and mean wages from the 2014 Bureau of Labor Statistics. Costs were adjusted to 2017 U.S. dollars. The estimated median state economic cost was $5.9 billion, ranging from $694 million to $55.5 billion, in total and $18,248, ranging from $15,418 to $30,915, per person with diabetes. The corresponding estimates for direct medical costs were $2.8 billion (range $0.3-22.9) and $8,544 (range $6,591-12,953) and for indirect costs were $3.0 billion (range $0.4-32.6) and $9,672 (range $7,133-17,962). In general, the estimated state median indirect costs resulting from morbidity were larger than costs from mortality both in total and per person with diabetes. Economic costs attributable to diabetes were large and varied widely across states. Our comprehensive state-specific estimates provide essential information needed by state policymakers to monitor the economic burden of the disease and to better plan and evaluate interventions for preventing type 2 diabetes and managing diabetes in their states.

Estimates of the global, regional, and national morbidity, mortality, and aetiologies of diarrhoea in 195 countries: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

SummaryBackgroundThe Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 provides an up-to-date analysis of the burden of diarrhoea in 195 countries. This study assesses cases, deaths, and aetiologies in 1990–2016 and assesses how the burden of diarrhoea has changed in people of all ages.MethodsWe modelled diarrhoea mortality with a Bayesian hierarchical modelling platform that evaluates a wide range of covariates and model types on the basis of vital registration and verbal autopsy data. We modelled diarrhoea incidence with a compartmental meta-regression tool that enforces an association between incidence and prevalence, and relies on scientific literature, population representative surveys, and health-care data. Diarrhoea deaths and episodes were attributed to 13 pathogens by use of a counterfactual population attributable fraction approach. Diarrhoea risk factors are also based on counterfactual estimates of risk exposure and the association between the risk and diarrhoea. Each modelled estimate accounted for uncertainty.FindingsIn 2016, diarrhoea was the eighth leading cause of death among all ages (1 655 944 deaths, 95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1 244 073–2 366 552) and the fifth leading cause of death among children younger than 5 years (446 000 deaths, 390 894–504 613). Rotavirus was the leading aetiology for diarrhoea mortality among children younger than 5 years (128 515 deaths, 105 138–155 133) and among all ages (228 047 deaths, 183 526–292 737). Childhood wasting (low weight-for-height score), unsafe water, and unsafe sanitation were the leading risk factors for diarrhoea, responsible for 80·4% (95% UI 68·2–85·0), 72·1% (34·0–91·4), and 56·4% (49·3–62·7) of diarrhoea deaths in children younger than 5 years, respectively. Prevention of wasting in 1762 children (95% UI 1521–2170) could avert one death from diarrhoea.InterpretationSubstantial progress has been made globally in reducing the burden of diarrhoeal diseases, driven by decreases in several primary risk factors. However, this reduction has not been equal across locations, and burden among adults older than 70 years requires attention.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

State-level diabetes-attributable mortality and years of life lost in the United States

PurposeTo estimate state-level diabetes-attributable deaths and years of life lost (YLL) in the Unites States. MethodsWe estimated diabetes-attributable all-cause and cardiovascular disease (CVD) deaths by age, sex, and state, using the attributable fraction approach. Data on diabetes prevalence were collected from Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System. Relative risks for people with and without diabetes were estimated using the National Health Interview Survey. State-sex-age–specific deaths were obtained from CDC WONDER. YLL were calculated by multiplying the number of people with diabetes by the difference in life expectancy between people with and without diabetes using the life table approach. ResultsNationally, estimated diabetes-attributable all-cause deaths and CVD deaths were 293,224 and 90,953, respectively. Diabetes resulted in a total of 109,707,000 YLL with an average 4.4 years of life lost per person with diabetes. Most state variation in total deaths was explained by state population size and diabetes prevalence. All-cause deaths ranged from 415 in Alaska to 28,538 in California, and CVD deaths ranged from 113 in Alaska to 8908 in California. Across all states, the average diabetes-attributable death rate per 100,000 was 125 for males and 105 for females for all-cause deaths and 40 for males and 31 for females for CVD deaths. ConclusionsMortality attributable to diabetes is greatly underestimated when looking only at diabetes listed as an underlying cause of death. These results can be used to track state differences in deaths due to diabetes and to monitor the success of public health activities.

Modelling stillbirth mortality reduction with the Lives Saved Tool

BackgroundThe worldwide burden of stillbirths is large, with an estimated 2.6 million babies stillborn in 2015 including 1.3 million dying during labour. The Every Newborn Action Plan set a stillbirth target of ≤12 per 1000 in all countries by 2030. Planning tools will be essential as countries set policy and plan investment to scale up interventions to meet this target. This paper summarises the approach taken for modelling the impact of scaling-up health interventions on stillbirths in the Lives Saved tool (LiST), and potential future refinements.MethodsThe specific application to stillbirths of the general method for modelling the impact of interventions in LiST is described. The evidence for the effectiveness of potential interventions to reduce stillbirths are reviewed and the assumptions of the affected fraction of stillbirths who could potentially benefit from these interventions are presented. The current assumptions and their effects on stillbirth reduction are described and potential future improvements discussed.ResultsHigh quality evidence are not available for all parameters in the LiST stillbirth model. Cause-specific mortality data is not available for stillbirths, therefore stillbirths are modelled in LiST using an attributable fraction approach by timing of stillbirths (antepartum/ intrapartum). Of 35 potential interventions to reduce stillbirths identified, eight interventions are currently modelled in LiST. These include childbirth care, induction for prolonged pregnancy, multiple micronutrient and balanced energy supplementation, malaria prevention and detection and management of hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, diabetes and syphilis. For three of the interventions, childbirth care, detection and management of hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, and diabetes the estimate of effectiveness is based on expert opinion through a Delphi process. Only for malaria is coverage information available, with coverage estimated using expert opinion for all other interventions. Going forward, potential improvements identified include improving of effectiveness and coverage estimates for included interventions and addition of further interventions.ConclusionsKnown effective interventions have the potential to reduce stillbirths and can be modelled using the LiST tool. Data for stillbirths are improving. Going forward the LiST tool should seek, where possible, to incorporate these improving data, and to continually be refined to provide an increasingly reliable tool for policy and programming purposes.

The future excess fraction model for calculating burden of disease.

BackgroundEstimates of the burden of disease caused by a particular agent are used to assist in making policy and prioritizing actions. Most estimations have employed the attributable fraction approach, which estimates the proportion of disease cases or deaths in a specific year which are attributable to past exposure to a particular agent. While this approach has proven extremely useful in quantifying health effects, it requires historical data on exposures which are not always available.MethodsWe present an alternative method, the future excess fraction method, which is based on the lifetime risk approach, and which requires current rather than historical exposure data. This method estimates the future number of exposure-related disease cases or deaths occurring in the subgroup of the population who were exposed to the particular agent in a specific year. We explain this method and use publically-available data on current asbestos exposure and mesothelioma incidence to demonstrate the use of the method.ConclusionsOur approach to modelling burden of disease is useful when there are no historical measures of exposure and where future disease rates can be projected on person years at risk.

Environmental Risks to Public Health in the United Arab Emirates: A Quantitative Assessment and Strategic Plan

Background: Environmental risks to health in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have shifted rapidly from infectious to noninfectious diseases as the nation has developed at an unprecedented rate. In response to public concerns over newly emerging environmental risks, the Environment Agency–Abu Dhabi commissioned a multidisciplinary environmental health strategic planning project.Objectives: In order to develop the environmental health strategic plan, we sought to quantify the illnesses and premature deaths in the UAE attributable to 14 environmental pollutant categories, prioritize these 14 risk factors, and identify interventions.Methods: We estimated the disease burden imposed by each risk factor using an attributable fraction approach, and we prioritized the risks using an empirically tested stakeholder engagement process. We then engaged government personnel, scientists, and other stakeholders to identify interventions.Results: The UAE’s environmental disease burden is low by global standards. Ambient air pollution is the leading contributor to premature mortality [~ 650 annual deaths; 95% confidence interval (CI): 140, 1,400]. Risk factors leading to > 10,000 annual health care facility visits included occupational exposures, indoor air pollution, drinking water contamination, seafood contamination, and ambient air pollution. Among the 14 risks considered, on average, outdoor air pollution was ranked by the stakeholders as the highest priority (mean rank, 1.4; interquartile range, 1–2) and indoor air pollution as the second-highest priority (mean rank 3.3; interquartile range, 2–4). The resulting strategic plan identified 216 potential interventions for reducing environmental risks to health.Conclusions: The strategic planning exercise described here provides a framework for systematically deciding how to invest public funds to maximize expected returns in environmental health, where returns are measured in terms of reductions in a population’s environmental burden of disease.

Occupational burden estimates – strengths and limitations

ObjectivesBurden of disease approaches have been developed to provide information which supports a valid comparison of information on different health disorders. This information allows evidence-based policy and resource-allocation decisions to...