Attributable Burden Research Articles

Trends of alcohol-attributable deaths in Lithuania 2001–2021: epidemiology and policy conclusions

BackgroundLithuania, a Baltic country in the European Union, can be characterized by high alcohol consumption and attributable burden. The aim of this contribution is to estimate the mortality burden due to alcohol use for the past two decades based on different relative risk functions, identify trends, and analyse the associations of alcohol-attributable burden with alcohol control policies and life expectancy.MethodsThe standard methodology used by the World Health Organization for estimating alcohol-attributable mortality was employed to generate mortality rates for alcohol-attributable mortality, standardized for Lithuania’s 2021 population distribution. Joinpoint analysis, T-tests, correlations, and regression analyses including meta-regressions were used to describe trends and associations.ResultsAge-standardized alcohol-attributable mortality was high in Lithuania during the two decades between 2001 and 2021, irrespective of which relative risks were used for the estimates. Overall, there was a downward trend, mainly in males, which was associated with four years of intensive implementation of alcohol control policies in 2008, 2009, 2017, and 2018. For the remaining years, the rates of alcohol-attributable mortality were stagnant. Among males, the correlations between alcohol-attributable mortality and life expectancy were 0.90 and 0.76 for Russian and global relative risks respectively, and regression analyses indicated a significant association between changes in alcohol-attributable mortality and life expectancy, after controlling for gross domestic product.ConclusionsMale mortality and life expectancy in Lithuania were closely linked to alcohol-attributable mortality and markedly associated with strong alcohol control policies. Further implementation of such policies is predicted to lead to further improvements in life expectancy.

Global burden of early-onset osteoarthritis, 1990–2019: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

ObjectivesEarly-onset osteoarthritis (OA) is an emerging health issue amidst the escalating prevalence of overweight and obesity. However, there are scant data on its disease, economic burden and attributable burden due...

Improving consistency in estimating future health burdens from environmental risk factors: Case study for ambient air pollution

Future changes in exposure to risk factors should impact mortality rates and population. However, studies commonly use mortality rates and population projections developed exogenously to the health impact assessment model used to quantify future health burdens attributable to environmental risks that are therefore invariant to projected exposure levels. This impacts the robustness of many future health burden estimates for environmental risk factors. This work describes an alternative methodology that more consistently represents the interaction between risk factor exposure, population and mortality rates, using ambient particulate air pollution (PM2.5) as a case study. A demographic model is described that estimates future population based on projected births, mortality and migration. Mortality rates are disaggregated between the fraction due to PM2.5 exposure and other factors for a historic year, and projected independently. Accounting for feedbacks between future risk factor exposure and population and mortality rates can greatly affect estimated future attributable health burdens. The demographic model estimates much larger PM2.5-attributable health burdens with constant 2019 PM2.5 (∼10.8 million deaths in 2050) compared to a model using exogenous population and mortality rate projections (∼7.3 million), largely due to differences in mortality rate projection methods. Demographic model-projected PM2.5-attributable mortality can accumulate substantially over time. For example, ∼71 million more people are estimated to be alive in 2050 when WHO guidelines (5 µg m−3) are achieved compared to constant 2019 PM2.5 concentrations. Accounting for feedbacks is more important in applications with relatively high future PM2.5 concentrations, and relatively large changes in non-PM2.5 mortality rates.

Global, regional, and national burden of diet high in processed meat from 1990 to 2019: a systematic analysis from the global burden of disease study 2019.

The objective of this study is to explore the prevalence and attributable burden of diet high in processed meat (DHIPM) in global, regional, and national level due to the burden caused by unhealthy dietary pattern worldwide. Cross-sectional study. All the data involved in this research were obtained from Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019. DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, was used to estimate the prevalence, which was measured by summary exposure value (SEV) and attributable burden of DHIPM. The Spearman rank order correlation method was performed to measure the correlation between sociodemographic index (SDI) and the prevalence as well as attributable burden. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was calculated to demonstrate the temporal trends. Globally, there were 304.28 thousand deaths and 8556.88 disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) caused by DHIPM in 2019 and increased by 34.63 and 68.69%, respectively. The prevalence had decreased slightly from 1990 to 2019, however increased in most regions and countries, especially in middle SDI regions, despite the implicitly high prevalence in high SDI regions. Countries with higher SDI values were facing higher prevalence and attributable burden of DHIPM while developing countries were observed with severer temporal trends. Compared with women, men had suffered from lower exposure level however graver attributable burden of DHIPM in the past three decades. The progress of continuous urbanization allowed increasingly severe prevalence and attributable burden of DHIPM, thus the challenge to alleviate this trend was acute. Effective measures such as education on beneficial dietary pattern and supplement on healthy food were urgently required, especially in developing regions and countries.

Trihalomethanes in global drinking water: Distributions, risk assessments, and attributable disease burden of bladder cancer

This study aimed to assess the global spatiotemporal variations of trihalomethanes (THMs) in drinking water, evaluate their cancer and non-cancer risks, and THM-attributable bladder cancer burden. THM concentrations in drinking water around fifty years on a global scale were integrated. Health risks were assessed using Monte Carlo simulations and attributable bladder cancer burden was estimated by comparative risk assessment methodology. The results showed that global mean THM concentrations in drinking water significantly decreased from 78.37 μg/L (1973–1983) to 51.99 μg/L (1984–2004) and to 21.90 μg/L (after 2004). The lifestage-integrative cancer risk and hazard index of THMs through all exposure pathways were acceptable with the average level of 6.45 × 10−5 and 7.63 × 10−2, respectively. The global attributable disability adjusted of life years (DALYs) and the age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR) dropped by 16% and 56% from 1990–1994 to 2015–2019, respectively. A big decline in the attributable ASDR was observed in the United Kingdom (62%) and the United States (27%), while China experienced a nearly 3-fold increase due to the expanded water supply coverage and increased life expectancy. However, China also benefited from the spread of chlorination, which helped reduce nearly 90% of unsafe-water-caused mortality from 1998 to 2018.

Prenatal phthalate exposure and adverse birth outcomes in the USA: a prospective analysis of births and estimates of attributable burden and costs

Phthalates are synthetic chemicals widely used in consumer products and have been identified to contribute to preterm birth. Existing studies have methodological limitations and potential effects of di-2-ethylhexyl phthalate (DEHP) replacements are poorly characterised. Attributable fractions and costs have not been quantified, limiting the ability to weigh trade-offs involved in ongoing use. We aimed to leverage a large, diverse US cohort to study associations of phthalate metabolites with birthweight and gestational age, and estimate attributable adverse birth outcomes and associated costs. In this prospective analysis we used extant data in the US National Institutes of Health Environmental influences on Child Health Outcomes (ECHO) Program from 1998 to 2022 to study associations of 20 phthalate metabolites with gestational age at birth, birthweight, birth length, and birthweight for gestational age z-scores. We also estimated attributable adverse birth outcomes and associated costs. Mother-child dyads were included in the study if there were one or more urinary phthalate measurements during the index pregnancy; data on child's gestational age and birthweight; and singleton delivery. We identified 5006 mother-child dyads from 13 cohorts in the ECHO Program. Phthalic acid, diisodecyl phthalate (DiDP), di-n-octyl phthalate (DnOP), and diisononyl phthalate (DiNP) were most strongly associated with gestational age, birth length, and birthweight, especially compared with DEHP or other metabolite groupings. Although DEHP was associated with preterm birth (odds ratio 1·45 [95% CI 1·05-2·01]), the risks per log10 increase were higher for phthalic acid (2·71 [1·91-3·83]), DiNP (2·25 [1·67-3·00]), DiDP (1·69 [1·25-2·28]), and DnOP (2·90 [1·96-4·23]). We estimated 56 595 (sensitivity analyses 24 003-120 116) phthalate-attributable preterm birth cases in 2018 with associated costs of US$3·84 billion (sensitivity analysis 1·63- 8·14 billion). In a large, diverse sample of US births, exposure to DEHP, DiDP, DiNP, and DnOP were associated with decreased gestational age and increased risk of preterm birth, suggesting substantial opportunities for prevention. This finding suggests the adverse consequences of substitution of DEHP with chemically similar phthalates and need to regulate chemicals with similar properties as a class. National Institutes of Health.

How multiple air pollutants affect hand, foot, and mouth disease incidence in children: assessing effect modification by geographical context in multicity of Sichuan, southwest China

BackgroundSeveral studies have suggested a significant association of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) with ambient air pollutants. Existing studies have characterized the role of air pollutants on HFMD using only risk ratio measures while ignoring the attributable burden. And whether the geographical context (i.e., diverse topographic features) could modulate the relationships is unclear.MethodsDaily reported childhood HFMD counts, ambient air pollution, and meteorological data during 2015–2017 were collected for each of 21 cities in Sichuan Province. A multistage analysis was carried out in different populations based on geographical context to assess effect modification by topographic conditions. We first constructed a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) for each city to describe the relationships with risk ratio measures. Then, we applied a multivariate meta-regression to estimate the pooled effects of multiple air pollutants on HFMD from the exposure and lagged dimensions. Finally, attributable risks measures were calculated to quantify HFMD burden by air pollution.ResultsBased on 207554 HFMD cases in Sichuan Province, significant associations of HFMD with ambient air pollutants were observed mainly at relatively high exposure ranges. The effects of ambient air pollutants on HFMD are most pronounced on lag0 or around lag7, with relative risks gradually approaching the reference line thereafter. The attributable risks of O3 were much greater than those of other air pollutants, particularly in basin and mountain regions.ConclusionsThis study revealed significant pooled relationships between multiple air pollutants and HFMD incidence from both exposure and lag dimensions. However, the specific effects, including RRs and ARs, differ depending on the air pollution variable and geographical context. These findings provide local authorities with more evidence to determine key air pollutants and regions for devising and implementing targeted interventions.

Quality of Life in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus and Other Chronic Diseases: Highlighting the Amplified Impact of Depressive Episodes.

Extensive research has explored SLE's impact on health-related quality of life (H-QoL), especially its connection with mental wellbeing. Recent evidence indicates that depressive syndromes significantly affect H-QoL in SLE. This study aims to quantify SLE's impact on H-QoL, accounting for comorbid depressive episodes through case-control studies. A case-control study was conducted with SLE patients (meeting the ACR/EULAR 2019 criteria of age ≥ 18). The control group was chosen from a community database. H-QoL was measured with the SF-12 questionnaire, and PHQ-9 was used to assess depressive episodes. SLE significantly worsened H-QoL with an attributable burden of 5.37 ± 4.46. When compared to other chronic diseases, only multiple sclerosis had a worse impact on H-QoL. Major depressive episodes had a significant impact on SLE patients' H-QoL, with an attributable burden of 9.43 ± 5.10, similar to its impact on solid cancers but greater than its impact on other diseases. SLE has a comparable impact on QoL to serious chronic disorders. Concomitant depressive episodes notably worsened SLE patients' QoL, exceeding other conditions, similar to solid tumors. This underscores the significance of addressing mood disorders in SLE patients. Given the influence of mood disorders on SLE outcomes, early identification and treatment are crucial.

Impact of airborne particulate matter exposure on hospital admission for Alzheimer's disease and the attributable economic burden: evidence from a time-series study in Sichuan, China

BackgroundAlzheimer's disease (AD) and other forms of dementia are the seventh leading cause of death. Studies discern the inclusion of air pollution among modifiable risk factors for dementia, while limited studies are for China. This study aims to examine the short-term association between airborne particulate matter (PM) and the hospitalizations of AD, including the economic costs in China.MethodsA total of 4975 cases of AD patients hospitalized from 2017 to 2019, were collected from nine city and 411 medical institutions in Sichuan Province, China. Data on air pollutants such as PM2.5, PM10, and NO2 were obtained from 183 air quality monitoring stations in Sichuan Province. A time series-generalized additive model was used to estimate the association between short-term exposure to PM (lag1–lag7 and moving average lag01–lag07) and AD hospital admissions (HAs), stratified by gender, age, and season.ResultsPositive short-term exposure to airborne PM was found for the HAs of AD. The greatest effect on the number of AD inpatients was on single-day lag1 (PM2.5:1.034 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.011, 1.058)). The association was also significant in the two-pollutant model. In the study period, 16.48% of AD HAs were attributed to the effect of PM. The total economic costs of AD attributable to PM exposure were US$ 2.56 million, including US$ 2.25 million of direct medical costs and US$ 0.31 million of indirect economic costs.ConclusionsThis study suggests that short-term exposure to airborne PM may increase the risk of AD HAs in Sichuan Province and result in associated economic costs.

Association between sociodemographic status and the T2DM-related risks in China: implication for reducing T2DM disease burden.

Analyzing the association between sociodemographic status and the type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM)-related risks in China to reduce the disease burden of T2DM. We downloaded data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 to estimate the disease burden of T2DM in China. Secondary analyses were performed by year, age, gender, summary exposure value (SEV), and sociodemographic index (SDI). In China, it is estimated that 3.74 (3.44-4.10) million incidence, 90.0 (82.3-98.5) million prevalence, 168.4 (143.2-194.0) thousand deaths, and 9.6 (7.6-11.9) million DALYs occurred in 2019, showing an increase of 96.8, 156.7, 162.8, and 145.4% compared to 1990. An inverse U-shaped curve was observed for the correlations between T2DM-related burden and SDI. A heavier burden was found in males. The top four risk factors were high body mass index (HBMI), dietary risks, air pollution and tobacco. HBMI, as the key risk, accounted for half of the disease burden of T2DM in China. Lower degree of SEV and higher level of attributable T2DM-related burden could be found in main risks, meaning their critical role of them in the development and progression of T2DM. An inverse U-shaped curve could be found in the association between age-standardized incidence, mortality, DALYs rate, and SDI. The disease burden of T2DM has rapidly increased in China. Gender disparities, different age distributions and inconsistent socioeconomic levels all played an important role in it. The key risk was HBMI. With the improvement of socioeconomic level, the main risk factors for T2DM have changed from environmental factors to lifestyle factors. Targeted control and preventative strategies to address adjustable risk factors could put an end to this soaring burden.

Chemicals Used in Plastic Materials: An Estimate of the Attributable Disease Burden and Costs in the United States.

Chemicals used in plastics have been described to contribute to disease and disability, but attributable fractions have not been quantified to assess specific contributions. Without this information, interventions proposed as part of the Global Plastics Treaty cannot be evaluated for potential benefits. To accurately inform the tradeoffs involved in the ongoing reliance on plastic production as a source of economic productivity in the United States, we calculated the attributable disease burden and cost due to chemicals used in plastic materials in 2018. We first analyzed the existing literature to identify plastic-related fractions (PRF) of disease and disability for specific polybrominated diphenylethers (PBDE), phthalates, bisphenols, and polyfluoroalkyl substances and perfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS). We then updated previously published disease burden and cost estimates for these chemicals in the United States to 2018. By uniting these data, we computed estimates of attributable disease burden and costs due to plastics in the United States. We identified PRFs of 97.5% for bisphenol A (96.25-98.75% for sensitivity analysis), 98% (96%-99%) for di-2-ethylhexylphthalate, 100% (71%-100%) for butyl phthalates and benzyl phthalates, 98% (97%-99%) for PBDE-47, and 93% (16%-96%) for PFAS. In total, we estimate $249 billion (sensitivity analysis: $226 billion-$289 billion) in plastic-attributable disease burden in 2018. The majority of these costs arose as a result of PBDE exposure, though $66.7 billion ($64.7 billion-67.3 billion) was due to phthalate exposure and $22.4 billion was due to PFAS exposure (sensitivity analysis: $3.85-$60.1 billion). Plastics contribute substantially to disease and associated social costs in the United States, accounting for 1.22% of the gross domestic product. The costs of plastic pollution will continue to accumulate as long as exposures continue at current levels. Actions through the Global Plastics Treaty and other policy initiatives will reduce these costs in proportion to the actual reductions in chemical exposures achieved.

Burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus and its risk factors in North Africa and the Middle East, 1990–2019: findings from the Global Burden of Disease study 2019

BackgroundThe prevalence of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) in the North Africa and Middle East region is alarmingly high, prompting us to investigate the burden and factors contributing to it through the GBD study. Additionally, there is a lack of knowledge about the epidemiological status of T2DM in this region, so our aim is to provide a comprehensive overview of the burden of T2DM and its associated risk factors.MethodsUsing data from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study, we calculated the attributable burden of T2DM for each of the 21 countries in the region for the years 1990 and 2019. This included prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and risk factors.ResultsBetween 1990 and 2019, there was a significant increase in the age-standardized incidence (79.6%; 95% Uncertainty Interval: 75.0 to 84.5) and prevalence (85.5%; [80.8 to 90.3]) rates of T2DM per 100,000 populations. The age-standardized mortality rate (1.7%; [-10.4 to 14.9]), DALYs (31.2%; [18.3 to 42.2]), and years lived with disability (YLDs) (82.6%; [77.2 to 88.1]) also increased during this period. Modifiable risk factors, such as high body mass index (56.4%; [42.8 to 69.8]), low physical activity (15.5%; [9.0 to 22.8]), and ambient particulate matter pollution (20.9%; [15.2 to 26.2]), were the main contributors to the number of deaths.ConclusionThe burden of T2DM, in terms of mortality, DALYs, and YLDs, continues to rise in the region. The incidence rate of T2DM has increased in many areas. The burden of T2DM attributed to modifiable risk factors continues to grow in most countries. Targeting these modifiable risk factors could effectively reduce the growth and disease burden of T2DM in the region.

Health impact assessment of port-sourced air pollution in Barcelona.

Air pollution is a major health risk factor. Ports might be an understudied source of air pollution. We conducted a spatial health impact assessment (HIA) of port-sourced air pollution for Barcelona for 2017 at the neighbourhood level. Total NO2 and PM10 and port-sourced NO2, PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations were available through the ADMS-Urban model. Population data, mortality and morbidity data, and risk estimates were obtained. We followed standard HIA methodologies and calculated relative risks and impact fractions for 1.35 million adults living in 73 neighbourhoods. The city-wide mean total NO2 and PM10 concentrations were 37.88 μg/m3 (range: 19.61-52.17 μg/m3) and 21.68 μg/m3 (range: 17.33-26.69 μg/m3), respectively, of which 7% (range: 2-36%) and 1% (range: 0-7%) were port-sourced, respectively. The mean port-sourced PM2.5 concentration was 0.19 μg/m3 (range: 0.06-1.38 μg/m3). We estimated that 1,123 (PI: 0-3,060) and 1,230 (95% CI: 0-2,566) premature deaths were attributable to total NO2 and PM10, respectively, of which 8.1% (91; PI: 0-264) and 1.1% (13; 95% CI 0-29) were attributable to port-sourced NO2 and PM10, respectively. 20 (95% CI: 15-26) premature deaths were attributable to port-sourced PM2.5. Additionally, a considerable morbidity burden and losses in life expectancy were attributable to port-sourced air pollution. Neighbourhoods closest to the port in the south-east were most adversely affected, gradually decreasing towards the north-west. The port is an understudied air pollution source in Barcelona with strong health impacts. Cities need local insight into health risk factors, their sources, attributable burdens and distributions for defining targeted policies.

Disease burden and attributable risk factors of lip and oral cavity cancer in China from 1990 to 2021 and its prediction to 2031.

This study addresses the essential need for updated information on the burden of lip and oral cavity cancer (LOC) in China for informed healthcare planning. We aim to estimate the temporal trends and the attributable burdens of selected risk factors of LOC in China (1990-2021), and to predict the possible trends (2022-2031). Analysis was conducted using data from the Global Burden of Disease study (GBD) 2021, encompassing six key metrics: incidence, mortality, prevalence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and years of life lost (YLLs). Absolute number and age-standardized rates, alongside 95% uncertainty intervals, were computed. Forecasting of disease burden from 2022 to 2031 was performed using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. Over the observed period (1990-2021), there were notable increases in the number of deaths (142.2%), incidence (283.7%), prevalence (438.0%), DALYs (109.2%), YLDs (341.2%), and YLLs (105.1%). Age-standardized rates demonstrated notable changes, showing decreases and increases of -5.8, 57.3, 143.7, -8.9%, 85.8%, and - 10.7% in the respective metrics. The substantial majority of LOC burden was observed among individuals aged 40-79 years, and LOC may exhibit a higher burden among males in China. From 2022 to 2031, the age-standardized rate of incidence, prevalence, and YLDs of LOC showed upward trends; while mortality, DALYs, and YLLs showed downward trends, and their estimated values were predicted to change to 2.72, 10.47, 1.11, 1.10, 28.52, and 27.43 per 100,000 in 2031, respectively. Notably, tobacco and high alcohol use emerged as predominant risk factors contributing to the burden of LOC. Between 1990 and 2021, the disability burden from LOC in China increased, while the death burden decreased, and projections suggest these trends will persist over the next decade. A significant portion of this disease burden to modifiable risk factors, specifically tobacco use and excessive alcohol consumption, predominantly affecting males and individuals aged 40-79 years. Attention to these areas is essential for implementing targeted interventions and reducing the impact of LOC in China.

Association between temperature and mortality: a multi-city time series study in Sichuan Basin, southwest China.

There are few multi-city studies on the association between temperature and mortality in basin climates. This study was based on the Sichuan Basin in southwest China to assess the association of basin temperature with non-accidental mortality in the population and with the temperature-related mortality burden. Daily mortality data, meteorological and air pollution data were collected for four cities in the Sichuan Basin of southwest China. We used a two-stage time-series analysis to quantify the association between temperature and non-accidental mortality in each city, and a multivariate meta-analysis was performed to obtain the overall cumulative risk. The attributable fractions (AFs) were calculated to access the mortality burden attributable to non-optimal temperature. Additionally, we performed a stratified analyses by gender, age group, education level, and marital status. A total of 751,930 non-accidental deaths were collected in our study. Overall, 10.16% of non-accidental deaths could be attributed to non-optimal temperatures. A majority of temperature-related non-accidental deaths were caused by low temperature, accounting for 9.10% (95% eCI: 5.50%, 12.19%), and heat effects accounted for only 1.06% (95% eCI: 0.76%, 1.33%). The mortality burden attributable to non-optimal temperatures was higher among those under 65 years old, females, those with a low education level, and those with an alternative marriage status. Our study suggested that a significant association between non-optimal temperature and non-accidental mortality. Those under 65 years old, females, and those with a low educational level or alternative marriage status had the highest attributable burden.

The burden of young-onset pancreatic cancer and its risk factors from 1990 to 2019: A systematic analysis of the global burden of disease study 2019

ObjectiveTo investigate worldwide incidence, deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and risk factors for young-onset pancreatic cancer (YOPC) using the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019–20 data. MethodsWe queried the Global Health Data Exchange tool for “pancreatic cancer” and “incidence”, “deaths” as the “measure”, and “DALYs” as the “cause” for the age group of 15–49 years to determine global, regional, and national trends in the incidence, deaths, and DALYs of YOPC. Sociodemographic index (SDI) was used to evaluate the associations between socioeconomic development and YOPC. Risk factors including smoking, tobacco use, hi2gh body mass index (BMI), and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG) were evaluated, and their attributable burden was estimated. ResultsGlobal incidence, death, and DALY rates of YOPC significantly increased from 1990 to 2019 ((0.30 (p = 0.001), 0.25 (p = 0.001), and 11.18 (p = 0.002), respectively). Regions with the highest and lowest incidence, death, and DALY rates of YOPC were Eastern Europe and Central Sub-Saharan Africa, respectively. Incidence, death, and DALY rates increased with increasing age and SDI. Leading risk factors for YOPC in 2019 were smoking and tobacco use. DALYs attributable to smoking and tobacco use decreased from 1990 to 2019, especially in females, while those attributable to high BMI and FPG increased during the same period. ConclusionsThe global incidence, death and DALY rates of YOPC have significantly increased over 3 decades. Certain regions and nations are witnessing a higher increase in this trend. There is an urgent need for global efforts targeting preventable causes of YOPC.

Time trends of 16 modifiable risk factors on the burden of major cancers among the Chinese population.

The cancer burden in China is increasing. We aimed to assess the time trends in the prevalence of 16 modifiable risk factors involved in lifestyle, diet, infection, and air pollution between 1997 and 2025 based on the China Health and Nutrition Survey, the Global Burden of Disease website, and publically available studies. The population attributable fraction (PAF) and its 95% uncertainty interval (UI) from 2007 to 2035 were calculated to quantify the attributable cancer burden in major 12 anatomic sites using the comparative risk assessment method, considering a 10-year lag effect. As a result, 1,559,476 cancer cases (PAF = 54.1%, 95% UI: 36.8%-65.8%) from the 12 anatomic sites were attributable to these modifiable risk factors in 2007, with lung, liver, and gastric cancer raging the top three. It was predicted that by 2035, the attributable cancer cases would reach 1,680,098 (PAF = 44.2%, 95% UI: 29.1%-55.5%), with the top three of lung, liver, and colorectal cancer. Smoking, physical inactivity, insufficient fruit consumption, HBV infection, and Helicobacter pylori infection were the most attributable risk factors in 2007, contributing to 480,352, 233,684, 215,009, 214,455, and 187,305 associated cancer cases, respectively. In 2035, the leading factors for cancer would be smoking, physical inactivity, insufficient fruit intake, HPV infection, and HBV infection, resulting in 427,445, 424,327, 185,144, 156,535, and 154,368 cancer cases, respectively. Intervention strategies should be swiftly established and dynamically altered in response to risk factors like smoking, physical inactivity, poor fruit intake, and infectious factors that may cause a high cancer burden in the Chinese population.

Estimates of the global burden of non-Hodgkin lymphoma attributable to HIV: a population attributable modeling study

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) significantly increases the risk of non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) development, yet the population-level impact on NHL burden is unquantified. We aim to quantify this association and estimate the global burden of HIV-associated NHL. In this meta-analysis, we searched five databases (PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane Library, Web of Science, Scopus) from database inception up to September 13, 2023, identifying cohort, case-control, or cross-sectional studies with an effective control group to assess NHL risk among individuals with HIV infection, with two authors extracting summary data from reports. Global and regional HIV-associated population attributable fraction (PAF) and NHL disease burden were calculated based on the pooled risk ratio (RR). HIV prevalence and NHL incidence were obtained from the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) and Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019. Trends in NHL incidence due to HIV were assessed using age-standardised incidence rate (ASIR) and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC). This study was registered with PROSPERO (CRD42023404150). Out of 14,929 literature sources, 39 articles met our inclusion criteria. The risk of NHL was significantly increased in the population living with HIV (pooled RR 23.51, 95% CI 17.62-31.37; I2=100%, p<0.0001), without publication bias. Globally, 6.92% (95% CI 2.18%-11.57%) of NHL new cases in 2019 were attributable to HIV infection (30,503, 95% CI 9585-52,209), which marked a more than three-fold increase from 1990 (8340, 95% CI 3346-13,799). The UNAIDS region of Eastern and Southern Africa was the highest affected region, with 44.46% (95% CI 19.62%-58.57%) of NHL new cases attributed to HIV infection. The Eastern Europe and Central Asia region experienced the highest increase in ASIR of NHL due to HIV in the past thirty years, wherein the EAPC was 8.74% (95% CI 7.66%-9.84%), from 2010 to2019. People with HIV infection face a significantly increased risk of NHL. Targeted prevention and control policies are especially crucial for countries in Eastern and Southern Africa, Eastern Europe and Central Asia, to achieve the UNAIDS's '90-90-90' Fast-Track targets. Limited studies across diverse regions and heterogeneity between research have hindered precise estimations for specific periods and regions. Sichuan Provincial People's Hospital, Chengdu, China; Health Care for Cadres of Sichuan Province, Chengdu, China; Science and Technology Department of Sichuan Province, Chengdu, China.

Excess risk in infant mortality among populations living in flood-prone areas in Bangladesh: A cluster-matched cohort study over three decades, 1988 to 2017.

The Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna river basin, running through Tibet, Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, and northern India, is home to more than 618 million people. Annual monsoons bring extensive flooding to the basin, with floods predicted to be more frequent and extreme due to climate change. Yet, evidence regarding the long-term impacts of floods on children's health is lacking. In this analysis, we used high-resolution maps of recent large floods in Bangladesh to identify flood-prone areas over the country. We then used propensity score techniques to identify, among 58,945 mothers interviewed in six demographic population-based surveys throughout Bangladesh, matched cohorts of exposed and unexposed mothers and leverage data on 150,081 births to estimate that living in flood-prone areas was associated with an excess risk in infant mortality of 5.3 (95% CI 2.2 to 8.4) additional deaths per 1,000 births compared to living in non-flood-prone areas over the 30-y period between 1988 and 2017, with higher risk for children born during rainy (7.9, 95% CI: 3.3 to 12.5) vs. dry months (3.1, 95% CI: -1.1 to 7.2). Finally, drawing on national-scale, high-resolution estimates of flood risk and population distribution, we estimated an excess of 152,753 (64,120 to 241,386) infant deaths were attributable to living in flood-prone areas in Bangladesh over the past 30 y, with marked heterogeneity in attributable burden by subdistrict. Our approach demonstrates the importance of measuring longer-term health impacts from floods and provides a generalizable example for how to study climate-related exposures and long-term health effects.

Long-term mortality burden trends attributed to black carbon and PM2·5 from wildfire emissions across the continental USA from 2000 to 2020: a deep learning modelling study

Long-term improvements in air quality and public health in the continental USA were disrupted over the past decade by increased fire emissions that potentially offset the decrease in anthropogenic emissions. This study aims to estimate trends in black carbon and PM2·5 concentrations and their attributable mortality burden across the USA. In this study, we derived daily concentrations of PM2·5 and its highly toxic black carbon component at a 1-km resolution in the USA from 2000 to 2020 via deep learning that integrated big data from satellites, models, and surface observations. We estimated the annual PM2·5-attributable and black carbon-attributable mortality burden at each 1-km2 grid using concentration-response functions collected from a national cohort study and a meta-analysis study, respectively. We investigated the spatiotemporal linear-regressed trends in PM2·5 and black carbon pollution and their associated premature deaths from 2000 to 2020, and the impact of wildfires on air quality and public health. Our results showed that PM2·5 and black carbon estimates are reliable, with sample-based cross-validated coefficients of determination of 0·82 and 0·80, respectively, for daily estimates (0·97 and 0·95 for monthly estimates). Both PM2·5 and black carbon in the USA showed significantly decreasing trends overall during 2000 to 2020 (22% decrease for PM2·5 and 11% decrease for black carbon), leading to a reduction of around 4200 premature deaths per year (95% CI 2960-5050). However, since 2010, the decreasing trends of fine particles and premature deaths have reversed to increase in the western USA (55% increase in PM2·5, 86% increase in black carbon, and increase of 670 premature deaths [460-810]), while remaining mostly unchanged in the eastern USA. The western USA showed large interannual fluctuations that were attributable to the increasing incidence of wildfires. Furthermore, the black carbon-to-PM2·5 mass ratio increased annually by 2·4% across the USA, mainly due to increasing wildfire emissions in the western USA and more rapid reductions of other components in the eastern USA, suggesting a potential increase in the relative toxicity of PM2·5. 100% of populated areas in the USA have experienced at least one day of PM2·5 pollution exceeding the daily air quality guideline level of 15 μg/m3 during 2000-2020, with 99% experiencing at least 7 days and 85% experiencing at least 30 days. The recent widespread wildfires have greatly increased the daily exposure risks in the western USA, and have also impacted the midwestern USA due to the long-range transport of smoke. Wildfires have become increasingly intensive and frequent in the western USA, resulting in a significant increase in smoke-related emissions in populated areas. This increase is likely to have contributed to a decline in air quality and an increase in attributable mortality. Reducing fire risk via effective policies besides mitigation of climate warming, such as wildfire prevention and management, forest restoration, and new revenue generation, could substantially improve air quality and public health in the coming decades. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Applied Science programme, NASA MODIS maintenance programme, NASA MAIA satellite mission programme, NASA GMAO core fund, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) GEO-XO project, NOAA Atmospheric Chemistry, Carbon Cycle, and Climate (AC4) programme, and NOAA Educational Partnership Program with Minority Serving Institutions.