Atmospheric Vapor Pressure Deficit Research Articles

Synergistic effects of high atmospheric and soil dryness on record-breaking decreases in vegetation productivity over Southwest China in 2023

Extreme climate events have increasingly threatened global terrestrial ecosystems in recent decades. In spring 2023, Southwest China (SWC) experienced unprecedented heatwaves and droughts. Using multiple satellite-based datasets, we found that these events led to the most significant declines in gross primary productivity (GPP) and the enhanced vegetation index (EVI) for the past two decades, with lagged effects persisting until August in the drought-affected area. Unlike the widespread and persistent drought of 2010, the record-breaking heatwaves in April and May 2023 sustained and intensified the drought stress. Elevated temperatures and suppressed precipitation, driven by anomalous atmospheric circulations, exacerbated the soil moisture (SM) shortages and increased the atmospheric vapor pressure deficit (VPD), restricting water availability and carbon uptake for vegetation photosynthesis. Our findings reveal that, during the 2023 extreme event in SWC, the decreases in forest productivity were primarily driven by low SM anomalies, while the decreases in the grassland and cropland productivity mainly resulted from abnormally high VPDs. This study highlights the combined effects of low SM and high VPD anomalies caused by a compound heatwave–drought event on vegetation growth in SWC and provides valuable insights for future assessments of regional extreme climate events on vegetation growth.

Species-specific responses of canopy greenness to the extreme droughts of 2018 and 2022 for four abundant tree species in Germany.

Germany experienced extreme drought periods in 2018 and 2022, which significantly affected forests. These drought periods were natural experiments, providing valuable insights into how different tree species respond to drought. The quantification of species-specific drought responses may help to identify the most climate-change-resilient tree species, thereby informing effective forest regeneration strategies. In this study, we used remotely sensed peak-season canopy greenness as a proxy for tree vitality to estimate the drought response of four widely abundant tree species in Germany (oak, beech, spruce, and pine). We focused on two questions: (1) How were the four tree species affected by these two droughts? (2) Which environmental parameters primarily determined canopy greenness? To address these questions, we combined a recently published tree species classification map with remotely sensed canopy greenness and environmental variables related to plant available water capacity (PAWC) and atmospheric vapor pressure deficit (VPD). Our results indicate that the more isohydric species featured a greater decline in canopy greenness under these droughts compared to the more anisohydric species despite similar soil moisture conditions. Based on spatial lag models, we found that the influence of PAWC on canopy greenness increases with increasing isohydricity while the influence of VPD decreases. Our statistical analysis indicates that oak was the only species with significantly higher canopy greenness in 2022 compared to 2018. Yet, all species are likely to be susceptible to accumulated drought effects, such as insufficient recovery time and increased vulnerability to biotic pathogens, in the coming years. Our study provides critical insights into the diverse responses of different tree species to changing environments over a large environmental gradient in Central Europe and sheds light on the complex interactions between soil moisture, climate variables, and canopy greenness. These findings contribute to understanding forests' climate-change resilience and may guide forest management and conservation strategies.

Effects of Treated Effluent Discharge on Tree Growth and Water use in a Cypress Swamp

When municipal effluent is discharged into swamps, baldcypress trees (Taxodium distichum) generally respond with increased growth. This growth increase may be associated with increased transpiration (E), but if functional traits are also affected, they may modulate the response of E to environmental conditions such as atmospheric vapor pressure deficit (VPD). We measured tree growth and sap flux to assess water-use traits and daily E in mature baldcypress trees that received effluent discharge and compared them to nearby trees that did not receive effluent. Basal area increment and foliar N:P were higher in trees that received effluent. For any given tree size, E was 5.8 L day−1 higher in trees receiving effluent. Sap-flux-based whole-tree canopy conductance at the reference VPD of 1 kPa and its sensitivity to VPD were both positively related to foliar N:P, suggesting that effluent discharge shifted trees to higher water use when VPD was relatively low, but that water use was more sensitive to VPD. Our results suggest that when effluent discharge increases forested wetland productivity it can also increase E, but these effects may be diminished by high VPD.

Vapor pressure deficit and temperature variability drive future changes to carbon sink stability in China’s terrestrial ecosystems

The stability of future carbon sinks is crucial for accurately predicting the global carbon cycle. However, the future dynamics and stability of carbon sinks remain largely unknown, especially in China, a significant global carbon sink region. Here, we examined the dynamics and stability of carbon sinks in China’s terrestrial ecosystems from 2015 to 2,100 under two CMIP6 scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585), using XGBoost and SHAP models to quantify the impact of climatic drivers on carbon sink stability. China’s future terrestrial ecosystems will act as a “carbon sink” (0.27–0.33 PgC/yr), with an initial increase that levels off over time. Although the carbon sink capacity increases, its stability does not consistently improve. Specifically, the stability of carbon sinks in future China’s terrestrial ecosystems transitions from strengthening to weakening, primarily occurring in areas with higher carbon sink capacity. Further analysis revealed that atmospheric vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and temperature (Tas) are the two primary factors influencing carbon sink stability, with significant differences in their impacts across different scenarios. Under the SSP245 scenario, variations in VPD (VPD.CV) regulate water availability through stomatal conductance, making it the key driver of changes in carbon sink stability. In contrast, under the SSP585 scenario, although VPD.CV still plays an important role, temperature variability (Tas.CV) becomes the dominant factor, with more frequent extreme climate events exacerbating carbon cycle instability. The study highlights the differences in driving factors of carbon sink stability under different scenarios and stresses the importance of considering these differences, along with the scale and stability of carbon sinks, when developing long-term carbon management policies to effectively support carbon neutrality goals.

Large Offsets in the Impacts Between Enhanced Atmospheric and Soil Water Constraints and CO2 Fertilization on Dryland Ecosystems

Greening dryland ecosystems greatly benefits from significant CO2 fertilization. This greening trend across global drylands, however, has also been severely constrained by enhancing atmospheric and soil water (SW) deficits. Thus far, the relative offsets in the contributions between the atmospheric vapor pressure deficit (VPD), SW at varying depths, and CO2 fertilization to vegetation dynamics, as well as the differences in the impacts of decreasing SW at different soil depths on dryland ecosystems over long periods, remain poorly recorded. Here, this study comprehensively explored the relative offsets in the contributions to vegetation dynamics between high VPD, low SW, and rising CO2 concentration across global drylands during 1982–2018 using process-based models and satellite-observed Leaf Area Index (LAI), Gross Primary Productivity (GPP), and solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF). Results revealed that decreasing-SW-induced reductions of LAI in dryland ecosystems were larger than those caused by rising VPD. Furthermore, dryland vegetation was more severely constrained by decreasing SW on the subsurface (7–28 cm) among various soil layers. Notable offsets were found in the contributions between enhanced water constraints and CO2 fertilization, with the former offsetting approximately 38.49% of the beneficial effects of the latter on vegetation changes in global drylands. Process-based models supported the satellite-observed finding that increasing water constraints failed to overwhelmingly offset significant CO2 fertilization on dryland ecosystems. This work emphasizes the differences in the impact of SW at different soil depths on vegetation dynamics across global drylands as well as highlights the far-reaching importance of significant CO2 fertilization to greening dryland ecosystems despite increasing atmospheric and SW constraints.

Effects of heat, elevated vapor pressure deficits and growing season length on growth trends of European beech

In recent decades, continued growth decline has been observed in various beech forest regions of Central and Western Europe, especially in the warmer lowlands, which is not necessarily linked to increased mortality. While earlier dendrochronological studies have shown that a deteriorating climatic water balance in the course of climate warming can drive negative growth trends, less is known about the effects of climatic extremes on tree growth, notably heat and rising atmospheric vapor pressure deficits (VPD). Through climate-growth analysis, we analyzed the influence of summer heat duration (frequency of hot days with Tmax > 30°C) and elevated VPD on the basal area increment (BAI) of dominant beech trees in 30 stands across a precipitation gradient in the northern German lowlands. Summer heat (especially in June) and elevated VPD are reducing BAI in a similar manner as does a deteriorated climatic water balance. While growing season length (GSL), derived from thermal thresholds of growth activity, has substantially increased since 1980, BAI has declined in the majority of stands, demonstrating a recent decoupling of tree productivity from GSL. We conclude that heat and elevated VPD most likely are important drivers of the recent beech growth decline in this region, while growing season length has lost its indicative value of beech productivity.

Forest plant indicator values for moisture reflect atmospheric vapour pressure deficit rather than soil water content.

Soil moisture shapes ecological patterns and processes, but it is difficult to continuously measure soil moisture variability across the landscape. To overcome these limitations, soil moisture is often bioindicated using community-weighted means of the Ellenberg indicator values of vascular plant species. However, the ecology and distribution of plant species reflect soil water supply as well as atmospheric water demand. Therefore, we hypothesized that Ellenberg moisture values can also reflect atmospheric water demand expressed as a vapour pressure deficit (VPD). To test this hypothesis, we disentangled the relationships among soil water content, atmospheric vapour pressure deficit, and Ellenberg moisture values in the understory plant communities of temperate broadleaved forests in central Europe. Ellenberg moisture values reflected atmospheric VPD rather than soil water content consistently across local, landscape, and regional spatial scales, regardless of vegetation plot size, depth as well as method of soil moisture measurement. Using in situ microclimate measurements, we discovered that forest plant indicator values for moisture reflect an atmospheric VPD rather than soil water content. Many ecological patterns and processes correlated with Ellenberg moisture values and previously attributed to soil water supply are thus more likely driven by atmospheric water demand.

Nonstationary linkage between summer warmth index and NDVI at high latitudes in Eurasia

Abstract The global increase in vegetation photosynthetic activity under the warming climate, commonly referred to as “greening”, has been a hot topic, especially in the high latitudes. However, in this study, it was found that, within the region of 60°–70°N and 110°–150°E, the interannual relationship between summer NDVI (normalized difference vegetation index) and SWI (summer warmth index) changes from being statistically positive in P1 (1982–2010) to statistically negative in P2 (2011–2021). Also, the interannual relationship between summer NDVI and summer soil moisture changes from being negative in P1 to positive in P2. The reason and possible mechanisms were investigated. On the one hand, the atmospheric vapor pressure deficit (VPD) has increased significantly in P2 corresponding to the increasing SWI, and the interannual relationship between the VPD and NDVI transforms into a significantly negative one. This is because, when the atmospheric VPD increases, leaf and canopy photosynthetic rates decline owing to stomatal closure, to protect vegetation from losing too much water. Therefore, the interannual relationship between the NDVI and VPD, and in turn the SWI, transforms into a significantly negative one in P2. On the other hand, it was found that the surface evapotranspiration is energy-limited in P1, but then with the decreasing soil moisture content it becomes soil-moisture-limited in P2. As one of the most important components of surface evapotranspiration, vegetation evapotranspiration is also limited by soil moisture. Therefore, the interannual relationship between soil moisture and NDVI becomes significantly positive in P2.

Drivers of ecological drought recovery: Insights from meteorological and soil drought impact

Drivers of ecological drought recovery: Insights from meteorological and soil drought impact

Spatio-temporal changes in atmospheric aridity over the arid region of Central Asia during 1979–2019

Spatio-temporal changes in atmospheric aridity over the arid region of Central Asia during 1979–2019

Irrigation rates and turfgrass evapotranspiration in cities with contrasting water availability

AbstractAs water scarcity is worsened by drought and climate change, there is more interest in efficient management of urban irrigation, requiring understanding of the drivers of evapotranspiration (ET) and the role of irrigation inputs. We developed and validated a method to accurately measure ET of turfgrass lawns in contrasting climates using portable static chambers. We made in situ measurements of ET and irrigation inputs in lawns across three metropolitan areas in the United States with varying climatic conditions, water availability, and water conservation policies: Salt Lake Valley, Utah; San Fernando Valley, California; and Tallahassee, Florida. In full sun, mean daily ET estimates (ETsun) were 0.7 ± 0.4 mm day−1 in Tallahassee, 1.6 ± 0.8 mm day−1 in Los Angeles, and 3.3 ± 1.1 mm day−1 in Salt Lake Valley. In the shade, daily ET estimates (ETshade) were two to three times lower. In all three regions, ET was primarily driven by solar radiation (I0) and atmospheric vapor pressure deficit (D). Across the cities, irrigation rates were a key driver of ET, along with I0 and D. Daily irrigation ranged from 0 mm day−1 in Tallahassee (most were unirrigated) to 1.9 ± 1.2 mm day−1 in Los Angeles and 5.1 ± 2.9 mm day−1 in Salt Lake Valley. ET increased linearly with irrigation up to ~3 mm day−1, after which ET remained relatively constant despite irrigation increases. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for nonlinear responses and shading effects on ET in developing accurate irrigation recommendations.

On the potential of using smartphone sensors for wildfire hazard estimation through citizen science

Abstract. Weather conditions that can enhance wildfire potential are a problem faced by many countries around the world. Wildfires can have major economic impacts as well as prolonged effects on populations and ecosystems. Distributing information on fire hazards to the public and first responders in real time is crucial for fire risk management and risk reduction. Although most fires today are caused by people, weather conditions determine if and how fast the fire spreads. In particular, research has shown that atmospheric vapor pressure deficit (VPD) is a key parameter predicting the dryness of vegetation and the available fuel for fires. VPD is determined from the environmental air temperature and relative humidity, both of which are readily obtained from smartphones carried by the public. In this study we use smartphone data from the company Opensignal, collected over almost 4 years and from more than 40 000 users per day, to estimate VPD values. We have found that smartphone data can provide useful information about fire risk and danger. Here we present two case studies from wildfires in Israel and Portugal in which VPD is calculated using calibrated temperature and relative humidity measurements from smartphones. Given the rapid growth in the number of smartphones around the globe, we propose applying smartphone data for meteorological research and fire weather applications. Possible users of these results could be wildfire researchers; public policy specialists in wildfire, climate, and disaster management; engineers working with big data; low-income countries; and citizen science advocates.

Local neighborhood affects stem rehydration under drought: evidence from mixtures of European beech with two different conifers.

Mixed-species forests are, for multiple reasons, promising options for forest management in Central Europe. However, the extent to which interspecific competition affects tree hydrological processes is not clear. High-resolution dendrometers capture subdaily variations in stem diameter; they can simultaneously monitor stem growth (irreversible changes in diameter) and water status (reversible changes) of individual trees. Using the information on water status, we aimed to assess potential effects of tree species mixture, expressed as local neighborhood identity, on night-time rehydration and water stress. We deployed 112 sensors in pure and mixed forest stands of European beech, Norway spruce and Douglas fir on four sites in the northwestern Germany, measuring stem diameter in 10-min intervals for a period of four years (2019-2022). In a mixture distribution model, we used environmental variables, namely soil matric potential, atmospheric vapor pressure deficit, temperature, precipitation and neighborhood identity to explain night-time rehydration, measured as the daily minimum tree water deficit (TWDmin). TWDmin was used as a daily indicator of water stress and the daily occurrence of sufficient water supply, allowing for stem growth (potential growth). We found that species and neighborhood identity affected night-time rehydration, but the impacts varied depending on soil water availability. While there was no effect at high water availability, increasing drought revealed species-specific patterns. Beech improved night-time rehydration in mixture with Douglas fir, but not in mixture with spruce. Douglas fir, however, only improved rehydration at a smaller share of beech in the neighborhood, while beech dominance tended to reverse this effect. Spruce was adversely affected when mixed with beech. At species level and under dry conditions, we found that night-time rehydration was reduced in all species, but beech had a greater capacity to rehydrate under high to moderate soil water availability than the conifers, even under high atmospheric water demand. Our study gives new insights into neighborhood effects on tree water status and highlights the importance of species-specific characteristics for tree-water relations in mixed-species forests. It shows that drought stress of European beech can be reduced by admixing Douglas fir, which may point towards a strategy to adapt beech stands to climate change.

Contrasting responses of vegetation productivity to intraseasonal rainfall in Earth system models

Abstract. Correctly representing the response of vegetation productivity to water availability in Earth system models (ESMs) is essential for accurately modelling the terrestrial carbon cycle and the evolution of the climate system. Previous studies evaluating gross primary productivity (GPP) in ESMs have focused on annual mean GPP and interannual variability, but physical processes at shorter timescales are important for determining vegetation–climate coupling. We evaluate GPP responses at the intraseasonal timescale in five CMIP6 ESMs by analysing changes in GPP after intraseasonal rainfall events with a timescale of approximately 25 d. We compare these responses to those found in a range of observation-based products. When composited around all intraseasonal rainfall events globally, both the amplitude and the timing of the GPP response show large inter-model differences, demonstrating discrepancies between models in their representation of water–carbon coupling processes. However, the responses calculated from the observational datasets also vary considerably, making it challenging to assess the realism of the modelled GPP responses. The models correctly capture the fact that larger increases in GPP at the regional scale are associated with larger increases in surface soil moisture and larger decreases in atmospheric vapour pressure deficit. However, the sensitivity of the GPP response to these drivers varies between models. The GPP in NorESM is insufficiently sensitive to vapour pressure deficit perturbations when compared all to other models and six out of seven observational GPP products tested. Most models produce a faster GPP response where the surface soil moisture perturbation is larger, but the observational evidence for this relationship is weak. This work demonstrates the need for a better understanding of the uncertainties in the representation of water–vegetation relationships in ESMs and highlights a requirement for future daily-resolution observations of GPP to provide a tighter constraint on global water–carbon coupling processes.

Preserving isohydricity: vertical environmental variability explains Amazon forest water use strategies.

Increases in hydrological extremes, including drought, are expected for Amazon forests. A fundamental challenge for predicting forest responses lies in identifying ecological strategies which underlie such responses. Characterization of species-specific hydraulic strategies for regulating water use, thought to be arrayed along an 'isohydric-anisohydric' spectrum, is a widely used approach. However, recent studies have questioned the usefulness of this classification scheme, because its metrics are strongly influenced by environments, hence can lead to divergent classifications even within the same species. Here, we propose an alternative approach positing that individual hydraulic regulation strategies emerge from the interaction of environments with traits. Specifically, we hypothesize that the vertical forest profile represents a key gradient in drought-related environments (atmospheric vapor pressure deficit, soil water availability) that drives divergent tree water use strategies for coordinated regulation of stomatal conductance (gs) and leaf water potentials (ΨL) with tree rooting depth, a proxy for water availability. Testing this hypothesis in a seasonal eastern Amazon forest in Brazil, we found that hydraulic strategies indeed depend on height-associated environments. Upper canopy trees, experiencing high VPD, but stable soil water access through deep rooting, exhibited isohydric strategies, defined by little seasonal change in the diurnal pattern of gs and steady seasonal minimum ΨL. By contrast, understory trees, exposed to less variable VPD but highly variable soil water availability, exhibited anisohydric strategies, with fluctuations in diurnal gs that increased in the dry season along with increasing variation in ΨL. Our finding that canopy height structures the coordination between drought-related environmental stressors and hydraulic traits provides a basis for preserving the applicability of the isohydric-to-anisohydric spectrum, which we show here may consistently emerge from environmental context. Our work highlights the importance of understanding how environmental heterogeneity structures forest responses to climate change, providing a mechanistic basis for improving models of tropical ecosystems.

Coping with extremes: Responses of Quercus robur L. and Fagus sylvatica L. to soil drought and elevated vapour pressure deficit

Climate change, particularly droughts and heat waves, significantly impacts global photosynthesis and forest ecosystem sustainability. To understand how trees respond to and recover from hydrological stress, we investigated the combined effects of soil moisture and atmospheric vapour pressure deficit (VPD) on seedlings of the two major European broadleaved tree species Fagus sylvatica (FS) and Quercus robur (QR). The experiment was conducted under natural forest gap conditions, while soil water availability was strictly manipulated. We monitored gas exchange (net photosynthesis, stomatal conductance and transpiration rates), nonstructural carbohydrates (NSC) concentration in roots and stomatal morphometry (size and density) during a drought period and recovery. Our comparative empirical study allowed us to distinguish and quantify the effects of soil drought and VPD on stomatal behavior, going beyond theoretical models. We found that QR conserved water more conservatively than FS by reducing transpiration and regulating stomatal conductance under drought. FS maintained higher stomatal conductance and transpiration at elevated VPD until soil moisture became critically low. QR showed higher intrinsic water use efficiency than FS. Stomata density and size also likely played a role in photosynthetic rate and speed of recovery, especially since QR with its seasonal adjustments in stomatal traits (smaller, more numerous stomata in summer leaves) responded and recovered faster compared to FS. Our focal species showed different responses in NSC content under drought stress and recovery, suggesting possible different evolutionary pathways in coping with stress. QR mobilized soluble sugars, while FS relied on starch mobilization to resist drought. Although our focal species often co-occur in mixed forests, our study showed that they have evolved different physiological, morphological and biochemical strategies to cope with drought stress. This suggests that ongoing climate change may alter their competitive ability and adaptive potential in favor of one of the species studied.

Effects of Soil Moisture and Atmospheric Vapor Pressure Deficit on the Temporal Variability of Productivity in Eurasian Grasslands

The grasslands in high-latitude areas are sensitive to climate warming and drought. However, the drought stress effect on the long-term variability of grassland productivity at the continental scale still hinders our understanding. Based on aboveground net primary production (ANPP) surveys, satellite remote sensing Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and meteorological data, we comprehensively analyzed three Aridity metrics and their effect on ANPP in Eurasian grassland from 1982 to 2020. Our results showed that the ANPP had an overall uptrend from 1982 to 2020, increasing most in the Tibetan Plateau alpine steppe subregion (TPSSR). Among three Aridity indicators, vapor pressure deficit (VPD) had an overall uptrend, while the trend of Aridity and soil moisture (SM) was insignificant from 1982 to 2020. Soil drought had negative effects on ANPP for all Eurasian grassland, while the atmospheric VPD had a positive effect on ANPP for TPSSR and the Mongolian Plateau steppe subregion (MPSSR), but a negative effect for the Black Sea–Kazakhstan steppe subregion (BKSSR) which was the driest subregion. SM had been the predominant driving factor for the interannual variability of ANPP in MPSSR since 1997. The increasing VPD had facilitated grassland productivity in alpine grasslands due to its cascading effect with an increasing temperature after 2000. The cascading effects networks of climate factors—drought factors (VPD, Aridity, and SM)—ANPP (CDA–CENet) indicated that SM was the predominant driving factor of the interannual variability of ANPP in MPSSR and BKSSR, and the dominance of SM had enhanced after the year 1997. The inhibitory effect of VPD on ANPP transformed into a facilitating effect after 1997, and the facilitating effect of SM is weakening in TPSSR.

Stomatal CO2 responses at sub- and above-ambient CO2 levels employ different pathways in Arabidopsis.

Stomatal pores that control plant CO2 uptake and water loss affect global carbon and water cycles. In the era of increasing atmospheric CO2 levels and vapor pressure deficit (VPD), it is essential to understand how these stimuli affect stomatal behavior. Whether stomatal responses to sub-ambient and above-ambient CO2 levels are governed by the same regulators and depend on VPD remains unknown. We studied stomatal conductance responses in Arabidopsis (Arabidopsis thaliana) stomatal signaling mutants under conditions where CO2 levels were either increased from sub-ambient to ambient (400 ppm) or from ambient to above-ambient levels under normal or elevated VPD. We found that guard cell signaling components involved in CO2-induced stomatal closure have different roles in the sub-ambient and above-ambient CO2 levels. The CO2-specific regulators prominently affected sub-ambient CO2 responses, whereas the lack of guard cell slow-type anion channel SLOW ANION CHANNEL-ASSOCIATED 1 (SLAC1) more strongly affected the speed of above-ambient CO2-induced stomatal closure. Elevated VPD caused lower stomatal conductance in all studied genotypes and CO2 transitions, as well as faster CO2-responsiveness in some studied genotypes and CO2 transitions. Our results highlight the importance of experimental setups in interpreting stomatal CO2-responsiveness, as stomatal movements under different CO2 concentration ranges are controlled by distinct mechanisms. Elevated CO2 and VPD responses may also interact. Hence, multi-factor treatments are needed to understand how plants integrate different environmental signals and translate them into stomatal responses.

Vapour pressure deficit affects crop water productivity, yield, and quality in tomatoes

Vapour pressure deficit affects crop water productivity, yield, and quality in tomatoes

Global convergence in terrestrial gross primary production response to atmospheric vapor pressure deficit.

Atmospheric vapor pressure deficit (VPD) increases with climate warming and may limit plant growth. However, gross primary production (GPP) responses to VPD remain a mystery, offering a significant source of uncertainty in the estimation of global terrestrial ecosystems carbon dynamics. In this study, in-situ measurements, satellite-derived data, and Earth System Models (ESMs) simulations were analysed to show that the GPP of most ecosystems has a similar threshold in response to VPD: first increasing and then declining. When VPD exceeds these thresholds, atmospheric drought stress reduces soil moisture and stomatal conductance, thereby decreasing the productivity of terrestrial ecosystems. Current ESMs underscore CO2 fertilization effects but predict significant GPP decline in low-latitude ecosystems when VPD exceeds the thresholds. These results emphasize the impacts of climate warming on VPD and propose limitations to future ecosystems productivity caused by increased atmospheric water demand. Incorporating VPD, soil moisture, and canopy conductance interactions into ESMs enhances the prediction of terrestrial ecosystem responses to climate change.