Atmospheric Surface Temperature Research Articles

Atmosphere and sea surface temperature coupled data assimilation with enhanced use of SST-sensitive microwave radiances

Atmosphere and sea surface temperature coupled data assimilation with enhanced use of SST-sensitive microwave radiances

The Impact of Oceanic Feedbacks on Stratosphere‐Troposphere Coupling in an Idealized Model

AbstractStratospheric temperature perturbations (STPs) caused by for example, variations in stratospheric ozone, are an important driver of changes in tropospheric dynamics, particularly pertinent to the long‐term climatic evolution of the Southern Hemisphere. However, the impact of ocean feedbacks on this interaction has not been fully examined. To study it, positive STPs were applied in three otherwise identical, idealized model configurations –atmosphere‐only (A), atmosphere + slab‐ocean (AS), and fully‐coupled atmosphere‐ocean (AO)–and the resulting atmospheric changes compared. In the AO model, changes in the tropics (extratropics) experienced a poleward‐expansion (shift) and positive (negative) feedback after ∼100–200 years, whilst the AS model showed atmospheric and sea surface temperature changes that did not resemble those seen in the AO model. In the AO model, changes in tropical ocean heat content were responsible for the atmospheric changes, attributable to changes in the Ekman transport. These results indicate that full atmosphere‐ocean coupling should be accounted for when studying the long‐term (100+ years) tropospheric response to STPs in the Southern Hemisphere. Validation with higher‐resolution and more realistic models is necessary.

Large Interferometer For Exoplanets (LIFE)

Context. Following the recommendations to NASA (in the Astro2020 Decadal survey) and ESA (through the Voyage2050 process), the search for life on exoplanets will be a priority in the next decades. Two concepts for direct imaging space missions are being developed for this purpose: the Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO) and the Large Interferometer for Exoplanets (LIFE). These two concepts operate in different spectral regimes: HWO is focused on reflected light spectra in the ultraviolet, visible, and near-infrared (UV/VIS/NIR), while LIFE will operate in the mid-infrared (MIR) to capture the thermal emission of temperate exoplanets. Aims. In this study, we aim to assess the potential of HWO and LIFE to characterize a cloud-free Earth twin orbiting a Sun-like star at a distance of 10 pc, both as separate missions and in synergy with each other. We aim to quantify the increase in information that can be gathered by joint atmospheric retrievals on a habitable planet. Methods. We performed Bayesian retrievals on simulated data obtained by an HWO-like mission and a LIFE-like one separately, then jointly. We considered the baseline spectral resolutions currently assumed for these concepts and used two increasingly complex noise simulations, obtained using state-of-the-art noise simulators. Results. An HWO-like concept would allow one to strongly constrain H2O, O2, and O3 in the atmosphere of a cloud-free Earth twin, while the atmospheric temperature profile is not well constrained (with an average uncertainty ≈100 K). LIFE-like observations would strongly constrain CO2, H2O, and O3 and provide stronger constraints on the thermal atmospheric structure and surface temperature (down to ≈10 K uncertainty). For all the investigated scenarios, both missions would provide an upper limit on CH4. A joint retrieval on HWO and LIFE data would accurately define the atmospheric thermal profile and planetary parameters. It would decisively constrain CO2, H2O, O2, and O3 and find weak constraints on CO and CH4. The significance of the detection is in all cases greater than or equal to the single-instrument retrievals. Conclusions. Both missions provide specific information that is relevant for the characterization of a terrestrial habitable exoplanet, but the scientific yield can be maximized by considering synergistic studies of UV/VIS/NIR+MIR observations. The use of HWO and LIFE together will provide stronger constraints on biosignatures and life indicators, with the potential to be transformative for the search for life in the Universe.

Climate change and Arctic charr (Salvelinus alpinus) in North America: modelling possible changes in range with different climate scenarios and interspecific interactions

AbstractOne of the greatest challenges for researchers today is understanding climate-change impacts on fish populations, particularly in vulnerable and understudied ecosystems such as the Canadian Arctic. Among other impacts, northern fishes will undergo thermal stress as atmospheric and sea surface temperatures are projected to rise globally. Models that consider how both environmental factors such as temperature and potential species interactions will impact population extirpation and species’ range contraction can help project the future distribution of a species in the face of a warming climate. Here, we investigate the climate-change impacts of rising temperatures and the potential northward distributional shift of brook charr (Salvelinus fontinalis) on Arctic charr (Salvelinus alpinus), Canada’s northernmost freshwater fish species. Specifically, we used a logistic regression model to establish baseline relationships between the current distribution of Arctic charr and the variables, degree-days (a key climate variable), geographical location, and brook charr occurrence. We developed the model applying the expected changes in degree-days to 2050 (25–50% increase from the average of 1976–2005) and 2080 (50–100% increase) while incorporating the historical distribution of Arctic charr to estimate the change in Arctic charr distribution over that time. We found that growing degree-days, longitude, latitude, and brook charr occurrences correctly classified 93% of Arctic charr historical occurrences in Canada. We estimate that in a high-carbon scenario, where degree-days are expected to increase by 50 to 100%, Arctic charr range is projected to decrease by 18% in Canada by 2051–2080 and decrease even further by 3% with the presence of brook charr. The Canadian high Arctic may provide refuge for Arctic charr, likely maintaining temperatures optimal for species persistence. Regardless, management that considers the climate stresses on Arctic charr populations will be important to preserve this highly valued resource that is pivotal for food security and traditional ways of life for northerners.

Extreme Marine Heatwaves in the Southern Java during 2016

Abstract In this manuscript, we investigated the characteristics of marine heatwaves (MHWs) in southern Java and the effect of local (air-sea heat flux) and remote forcing (El Niño–Southern Oscillation/ENSO and Indian Ocean Dipole/IOD) on the formation of MHWs. We utilized remote sensing data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature V2.1 dataset and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Interim reanalysis, covering the period 01 January 1982 to 31 December 2021. The datasets were processed by statistical analysis using MATLAB. We found that the most prolonged durations and the highest cumulative intensities of MHWs in southern Java were recorded during 2016, spanning approximately 255 days and 419.28 °C, respectively. During 2016, the combination of El Niño decay and negative IOD led to optimal warm conditions for long-lasting MHWs and hit southern Java throughout the year. Furthermore, this research highlighted a stronger correlation between ENSO and MHWs in southern Java compared to the IOD, with a 5–8 months lag time. We suggest that long-lasting MHW events may have serious implications for social and ecological systems. Therefore, an in-depth and comprehensive understanding of MHWs due to ongoing climate change becomes an urgent matter to predict such extreme events.

Benefits of the coupling in the downscaling the South American climate

We evaluate the benefits of the use of a regional coupled model over its stand-alone atmospheric component when forced by reanalysis data in the simulation of the South American climate. We find that the coupling allows for a better simulation of important features of the atmospheric circulation and surface temperature. The simulated 2 meters air temperature is improved over most of the continent, the sea level pressure over the South Pacific Anticyclone area is better represented in the coupled simulation and the location of the ITCZ is improved during the austral winter. The precipitation, especially over the Andes, benefits less from the coupling, although a more realistic humidity transport leads to a reduction of the precipitation biases over extensive regions. The austral summer precipitation bias is reduced in areas such as eastern Colombia, northern Bolivia, eastern Brazil and central Argentina. For austral winter, the coupled model has a better performance in a large part of the Amazon region, in areas such as east of Peru, west Brazil, north Bolivia and south Argentina. Moreover, the regionally coupled model not only improves the simulation of important features of the observed atmospheric fields but also demonstrates good skills in reproducing the Humboldt upwelling system. Therefore, our study highlights the advantages of regional coupled models for the simulation of the South American climate, as the ocean-atmosphere interaction is of utmost importance for the circulation mechanisms that determine the climate of the region.

Pressure monitoring and deformation analysis of a brine-filled salt cavern - A case study of Jianghan, China

Deformation stability plays a crucial role in the construction and operation of hydrocarbon storage salt caverns. Monitoring and analyzing wellhead pressure data under closed well conditions provide valuable insights into the evaluation of cavern stability. In this study, an analysis of five factors influencing internal brine pressure was conducted, which revealed that salt creep and brine thermal expansion contribute to an increase in internal brine pressure, while brine penetration, salt dissolution and cavern compressibility lead to a decrease. The atmospheric pressure, surface temperature, and earth tides are the other factors influencing wellhead pressure fluctuations. Through the analysis of wellhead pressure data from brine-filled salt cavern under closed conditions, the creep parameters of salt formations were calculated using the Norton-Hoff creep model. To further understand the behavior of brine-filled salt cavern, numerical simulations were conducted to analyze the brine temperature distribution and deformation stability. The volumetric average temperature of the brine exhibits a nonlinear increase over time, characterized by a rapid rise in the initial stage followed by a slower rate of change. Finally, the brine temperature stabilizes and converges toward the formation temperature. From deformation analysis, it was observed that the closed condition is more favorable for the maintenance of cavern stability in comparison to the open condition. The subsidence of the cavern roof is particularly sensitive and requires careful attention, especially for flat-roof salt caverns. Under closed conditions, it is crucial to control the brine pressure decrease rate and prevent excessively high brine pressure to ensure the mechanical and penetration stability of the brine-filled salt cavern. These findings provide valuable insights into the factors influencing internal brine pressure, the determination of creep parameters, the distribution of brine temperature, and the deformation stability of brine-filled salt caverns.

Assessment of coastal and mangrove vulnerability in the Andaman Island, Indian Ocean

Coastal regions are highly susceptible to the effects of global warming, including rising atmospheric and sea surface temperatures, increased cyclone frequency, and sea level rise. Thus, it is imperative to examine coastal vulnerability to minimize the impact of multiple hazards and protect coastal resources, such as mangroves. Particularly in India studying the vulnerability of coastal zones of Andaman and Nicobar Islands which fall in seismic zone V is critical for conservation efforts. We conducted a vulnerability analysis of coastal zones impacted by the 2004 earthquake, causing varying degrees of ground upliftment and subsidence. We compared coastal vulnerability among sites that experienced uplift, no change, and subsidence (the southern portion). Our analysis utilized the Coastal and Mangrove Vulnerability Index (CVI and MVI) to measure and compare vulnerability in six zones distributed along uplift and subsidence gradient. High-resolution satellite imagery including WorldView-2, 3, and GeoEye-1 from year 2022 are utilized on this study. The CVI and MVI offers a good way to measure and compare vulnerabilities across sites and offer insights for better management. The CVI and MVI results indicate that approximately 34% of coastal grids and over 23% of mangrove grids across all zones are highly to extremely highly vulnerable. Subsided zones were found to be more vulnerable than uplifted zones. These findings suggest that large-scale natural disturbances such as tectonic displacement have the potential to impact coastal vegetation and mangrove cover can become even more vulnerable. In conclusion, our study emphasizes the importance of vulnerability analyses in coastal regions, especially in areas prone to seismic activity. Our findings have direct implications for conservation and restoration efforts and underscore the need for continued monitoring and mitigation efforts to safeguard coastal resources for long-term sustainability.

Winter cover cropping increases albedo and latent heat flux in a Texas High Plains agroecosystem

AbstractWinter cover crops represent a land cover change that may sequester carbon in the soil and improve agricultural sustainability. Their adoption may also change the Earth's radiative balance and result in biophysical feedbacks to climate through alterations in albedo and latent heat fluxes. Understanding the mechanisms underlying these alterations to the radiative balance is important for making reliable future climate projections. However, data on cover crop biophysics are limited, requiring models to rely on data from summer plants for parameterization, likely biasing predictions. To address this gap, we measured the albedo and stomatal conductance of two summer crops and three winter crops on farms in the High Plains region of Texas. We also established a winter cover crop field experiment with two cover crops and fallow fields to estimate the change in albedo and latent heat flux that results from a switch to winter cover cropping. We found that albedo was significantly higher in winter‐like conditions than in summer‐like conditions due to an increase in plant albedo and a reduction in leaf area index. The albedo of winter cover crops was higher than the soil albedo, resulting in an increase in top‐of‐atmosphere reflected radiation of 7%–14% when converting from fallow fields to winter cover cropped fields. There was an additional cooling effect through doubling of the estimated latent heat flux caused by the presence of cover crops. The combined changes in albedo and latent heat resulted in a change in the surface energy balance that is associated with an overall cooling effect of winter cover crops on surface atmospheric temperatures. While this effect is likely to be region‐specific, these results strongly indicate that winter cover crops alter the surface albedo and latent heat flux of agricultural fields and provide a direct cooling effect in the High Plains region of Texas.

MtDNA data reveal disparate population structures and High Arctic colonization patterns in three intertidal invertebrates with contrasting life history traits

IntroductionPost-glacial climate variation is known to have influenced the distribution of marine species in the North Atlantic. In particular, the Atlantic side of the Arctic has experienced strong fluctuations in both atmospheric and sea surface temperature, as well as seasonal ice coverage since the last glacial maximum (LGM). Here, we aim to unveil the phylogeography and historical demography of three rocky intertidal marine invertebrates showing a trans-Atlantic distribution and presently inhabiting the Arctic: Gammarus oceanicus, Littorina saxatilis and Semibalanus balanoides.MethodsWe used a large amount of mitochondrial DNA barcode data, both newly-obtained and stored in public databases. We performed phylogeographic and demographic analyses on 1119 G. oceanicus, 205 L. saxatilis, and 884 S. balanoides sequences.ResultsOur results show that all three of these boreal species have expanded their effective population sizes in the high Arctic Svalbard Archipelago since the LGM. Analyses investigating the origin of all these populations point to the eastern Atlantic.DiscussionBased on our results we conclude that the expansion of these boreal species to the Arctic possibly happened during an earlier warm cycle of the Holocene era, and is probably not the result of the recent ‘Atlantification’ of the Arctic. We also discuss the effects of dispersal potential on population structure as an important aspect of comparative biogeographical studies.

Unravelling the elevation-dependent warming in the Indus Basin

The Elevation Dependent Warming (EDW) in the mountain regions have wider implications to its cryosphere, hydrological, and ecological systems. This paper explores an EDW in the Indus River Basin, considering Jhelum, Kabul, and Indus sub-basins to improve the accuracy and understanding of cryospheric and hydrological changes in the basin. We use the maximum (Tmax), minimum (Tmin), and mean (Tmean) near surface atmospheric temperature data from 21 ground stations for the 1988–2021 period and applied the Mann-Kendall (MK) trend tests for exploring the trends in the data. The results show that Tmax and Tmin has significant (p < 0.001) warming trends in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) until 2210 mean above sea level (m asl). Tmax has increased with a rate of 0.031 °C yr−1 (p < 0.001) while Tmin increased with a rate of 0.029 °C yr−1 (p < 0.001), hence the “diurnal temperature range (DTR) also increased significantly” (0.015 °C yr−1, p < 0.001). In this study, a symmetric pattern of increasing trends has been observed in Tmax and Tmin. Moreover, Tmax has increasing trends throughout the period in the middle and high-altitude regions, except in Autumn and Monsoon seasons, respectively. While more significant and prominent increasing trend observed in Tmax during the winter season. Thus, this consistent warming trends in all seasons with more prominent trend in the winter season for Tmax can have harmful impact on the cryosphere of the region and ultimately, leading to water scarcity and extreme droughts.

A dataset of soil carbon flux in Xishuangbanna tropical rainforest ecosystem from 2003 to 2008

Long-term and large-scale carbon flux data supports research on key processes of the global carbon and water cycle. Soil is the largest carbon pool in the terrestrial ecosystem. Small variations in soil carbon can significantly impact the carbon budgets of terrestrial ecosystems. Tropical forest is a crucial carbon sink in the world. However, there have been some reports indicating a decrease in soli carbon levels, potentially approaching neutrality, as a result of soil carbon degradation caused by global changing. Thus, the long-term and continuous observation of soil carbon flux is of great significance for evaluating the role of soil carbon in the tropical carbon cycle. ChinaFLUX Observation and Research Network (ChinaFLUX) has not only conducted the observation and research on carbon flux by using vorticity correlation technology, but also carried out the long-term observation and research on surface CO2 flux by using the box method. In this dataset, we collected and sorted out the soil CO2 emission flux data and conventional meteorological data of Xishuangbanna tropical rain forest ecosystem from January 2003 to August 2008 according to the static box observation method and data quality control management of greenhouse gas emissions. The dataset consists of three types of files at daily, monthly and yearly scales, covering surface CO2 flux, pressure, atmospheric temperature, soil temperature (5 cm) and soil water content (5 cm). It is expected to provide essential data for estimating carbon balance and understanding carbon cycle processes at both tropical and global scales.

The impact of climate change on the wave energy resource potential of the Atlantic Coast of Iberian Peninsula

This study investigates the impact of climate change on the wave energy potential along the Atlantic coast of the Iberian Peninsula, a region acknowledged for its high wave energy resource. The research focuses on the annual and intra-annual variations in wave power for the high-emission RCP8.5 global warming scenario over different time frames: historical, near-future, and far-future. The results show a decreasing trend in the wave energy resource throughout the study area, with the most notable reductions observed in the northwestern region. The reduction in maximum annual power ranges from 15.1 to 7.2 kW/m. Changes in atmospheric circulation patterns and ocean surface temperature gradients induced by climate change effects could explain these results. This study also discusses the impacts of wave power projections on the design of wave energy converters and their future operation. The outcomes are of high interest to adapt the renewable energy infrastructure to a changing climate, ultimately also aiding in the strategic planning and cost-effective design of future wave energy projects.

The Relationships Between Meridional Position of North Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies and North American Surface Temperatures Revealed by CMIP6 Models

AbstractIn this study, we obtained the first leading mode and principal component 1 (PC1) of North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST). The PC1‐related SST anomalies, located relatively north/south, are referred to as North/South PC1 events. Model outputs, observations, reanalysis datasets and sensitivity experiments show that during the North PC1 events, an enhanced Aleutian low occurs and is located relatively north, favoring anomalous southerlies over western North America. The anomalous southerlies induce a strong warming anomaly over North America via warm advection of the anomalous southerlies and temperature advection of the climatological westerlies over North America. However, the Aleutian low anomaly and corresponding southerly anomaly associated with South PC1 events shift southward, favoring weakened effects of South PC1 events on atmospheric circulations and surface temperatures over North America. The meridional position of PC1 events deserves to be considered in the studies of the PC1 and its related climate changes.

Rigorous derivation of stochastic conceptual models for the El Niño-Southern Oscillation from a spatially-extended dynamical system

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most predominant interannual variability in the tropics, significantly impacting global weather and climate. In this paper, a framework of low-order conceptual models for the ENSO is systematically derived from a spatially-extended stochastic dynamical system with full mathematical rigor. The spatially-extended stochastic dynamical system has a linear, deterministic, and stable dynamical core. It also exploits a simple stochastic process with multiplicative noise to parameterize the intraseasonal wind burst activities. A principal component analysis based on the eigenvalue decomposition method is applied to provide a low-order conceptual model that succeeds in characterizing the large-scale dynamical and non-Gaussian statistical features of the eastern Pacific El Niño events. Despite the low dimensionality, the conceptual modeling framework contains outputs for all the atmosphere, ocean, and sea surface temperature components with detailed spatiotemporal patterns. This contrasts with many existing conceptual models focusing only on a small set of specified state variables. The stochastic versions of many traditional low-order models, such as the recharge–discharge and the delayed oscillators, become special cases within this framework. The rigorous derivation of such low-order models provides a unique way to connect models with different spatiotemporal complexities. The framework also facilitates understanding the instantaneous and memory effects of stochastic noise in contributing to the large-scale dynamics of the ENSO.

Summer snowline altitude gradients in Western Norway are influenced by maritime climate

ABSTRACT Mountain snowline dynamics are relatively underreported with few studies exploring spatial snowline dynamics. Whilst clear regional-scale relationships between snowline location and temperature exist in European mountains, recent research at higher latitudes reports no response to climate change. In maritime mountains, snowlines occupy complex environmental gradients. Using timeseries of satellite data from Landsat missions 5–8 (151 images between 1984 and 2021), we explored sub-regional summer snowline dynamics across the maritime-continental climate gradient in the Western Norwegian mountains. We characterize spatio-temporal snowline altitude dynamics and investigate the climate factors altering snowline patterns. Summer snowline altitudes were found to increase inland at around double the rate of the 0°C summer isotherm. Data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) land component of the fifth generation of European Reanalysis (ERA5-Land), showed a potential ‘maritime-mountain’ effect with coastal orographic snowfall and cloud cover-induced surface solar downwelling radiation amplifying maritime-continental snowline altitude gradients alongside surface atmospheric temperature. This was replicated in the Canadian Rocky Mountains. Between 1984 and 2021, we found spatial summer snowline gradients in Norway decreased and propose multiple climate forcings are responsible, potentially masking links between snowlines and climate change. Although non-significant, the data also suggest regional summer snowline altitudes increased. This study demonstrates the complex spatial heterogeneity in snow-climate relationships and highlights how long-term snow dynamics can be queried using fine-grain (Landsat) resolution satellite data. We share our approach through a Google Earth Engine web-app that rapidly executes spatial snowline analyses for global mountain regions via a graphical user interface.

Polar class ship accessibility to Arctic seas north of the Bering Strait in a decade of variable sea-ice conditions

Surface atmospheric temperatures over the Arctic Ocean are rising faster than the global average, and sea-ice coverage has declined, making some areas newly accessible to ocean-going ships. Even so, Arctic waters remain hazardous to ships, in part, because of the highly variable nature of sea-ice formation and drift in some areas. In this study, we investigated interannual variability in polar class (PC) ship accessibility in the northern Bering Sea and seas north of the Bering Strait (East Siberian, Chukchi, Beaufort) from February 2012 to February 2022. We used sea-ice charts from the U.S. National Ice Center and calculations of the Risk Index Outcome(RIO)for PC3, PC5, and PC7 ships to characterize spatiotemporal trends in PC ship accessibility during the months of February, June, September, and November over the last 10 to 11 years. We also characterized shipping activity on select days in 2021. Overall, PC ship accessibility during the months of February and June increased over the last decade, especially for PC7 ships. However, areas that became more accessible over time did not support heavy ship traffic, possibly because they were not located on preferred transit routes or because they were surrounded by unnavigable ice, which made them inaccessible in practice. Ship accessibility was highly variable in the northernmost, offshore regions of the study site. During June, PC7 ship accessibility was interannually variable in waters south of the Bering Strait, and ships were active in those regions (most were fishing vessels), indicating potentially hazardous conditions during this time of year. Accessibility was considerably less variable over space and time (months, years) for PC5 (ice capable) ships and for PC3 ships (heavy icebreakers). Information from this study can be used by PC ship operators planning safe and successful shipping routes and by coastal states preparing emergency services to protect the maritime community. As governments and the private sector build out fleets of ice-capable ships, knowledge of interannual variability in ship accessibility will also help planners match PC ship capabilities to mission requirements.

A 600‐year marine record associated with the dynamics of the eastern Penny Ice Cap (Baffin Island, Nunavut, Canada)

ABSTRACTTwo composite sedimentary sequences sampled in the ice‐proximal (12CS) and ice‐distal (02CS) areas of Coronation Fjord (Baffin Island, Nunavut, Canada) were investigated in order to reconstruct the effect of climate variability on 600 years of changes in sediment transfer from the eastern Penny Ice Cap (PIC). Detrital proxies, and physical and sedimentological analyses revealed that glacial meltwater discharges led to frequent rapidly deposited layers (RDLs) in ice‐proximal settings. RDLs in ice‐distal settings involved the sudden release of a large quantity of sediment‐laden water during floods probably originating from adjacent fjords with large sandur deltas. Laminated sediments with ice‐rafted debris throughout the Little Ice Age interval in the ice‐proximal environment suggest that colder conditions promoted glacier growth, leading to successive episodes of turbid hyperpycnal meltwater plumes and iceberg calving in Coronation Fjord. Since 1850 ce, the accelerated Coronation retreat in response to modern warming has led to increased sedimentation rates, abrupt mineralogical and grain size proxy variations and more frequent RDLs. Similar trends between the detrital proxies of the ice‐proximal core and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation record and Arctic surface air temperature suggest high connectivity between atmospheric and sea surface temperature variations and PIC dynamics over the last 600 years.

A Simple Multiscale Intermediate Coupled Stochastic Model for El Niño Diversity and Complexity

AbstractEl Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most prominent interannual climate variability in the tropics and exhibits diverse features in spatiotemporal patterns. This paper develops a simple multiscale intermediate coupled stochastic model to capture the ENSO diversity and complexity. The model starts with a deterministic and linear coupled interannual atmosphere, ocean, and sea surface temperature (SST) system. It can generate two dominant linear solutions representing the eastern Pacific (EP) and the central Pacific (CP) El Niños, respectively. In addition to adopting a stochastic model for characterizing the intraseasonal wind bursts, another simple stochastic process is developed to describe the decadal variation of the background Walker circulation. The latter links the two dominant modes in a simple nonlinear fashion and advances the modulation of the strength and occurrence frequency of the EP and the CP events. Finally, cubic nonlinear damping is adopted to parameterize the relationship between subsurface temperatures and thermocline depth. The model succeeds in reproducing the spatiotemporal dynamical evolution of different types of ENSO events. It also accurately recovers the strongly non‐Gaussian probability density function, the seasonal phase locking, the power spectrum, and the temporal autocorrelation function of the SST anomalies in all the three Niño regions (3, 3.4, and 4) across the equatorial Pacific. Furthermore, both the composites of the SST anomalies for various ENSO events and the strength‐location bivariate distribution of equatorial Pacific SST maxima for the El Niño events from the model simulation highly resemble those from the observations.

Thermal conduction in karst terrains dominating cave atmosphere temperatures: Quantification of thermal diffusivity

The relatively stable temperature of most cave interiors is caused by the transfer of the surface atmosphere temperature signal to the karst underground by thermal conduction. Transferring underground thermal signals by conduction implies the amplitude attenuation of the external thermal anomaly as well as a signal delay. The magnitude of these attenuation and delay effects is proportional to the thickness of bedrock cover above the cave and is controlled by the bedrock thermal diffusivity. Here we present 5-year temperature record of Los Pilones Cave, in central Spain, where advection has a limited control on thermal anomalies all year round. Thus, thermal conduction dominates the thermal variability in the cave, with simulations of a 1-D thermal conduction model explaining up to 94% of the variability observed. Thermal attenuation and signal delays are highly correlated with the thickness of bedrock cover (r2 = 0.95 in both cases), enabling the calculation of a thermal diffusivity of 5.07*10−7 ±1.27*10−7 m2/s. The calculated thermal diffusivity is in the range of available values measured in laboratory for carbonate lithologies, although differs beyond uncertainty from the limited number of studies that calculated this value from field observations in karst. Thus, local rock properties significantly impact thermal diffusivities, and more experimental studies are required to show a complete distribution of this value in karst settings. The reported uncertainty, that was calculated using different time windows within the studied period, represents a variability of 23% on the thermal diffusivity. Karst terrains are mostly composed of three phases, rock, air and water, that have different thermal properties. Thus, variability of the water content in the rock porosity through time is likely a significant control on the measured uncertainty. Since temperature in the studied cave has a minor component affected by advection, this cave represents a paradigmatic location to observe the important role of thermal conduction in caves. Therefore, conclusions from this study can be useful to better understand thermal regimes and interannual trends of most cave interiors despite occurrence of variable impacts of seasonal ventilation dynamics in cave temperature records. In addition, the mechanism of thermal conduction results in a thermal decoupling between the surface and cave atmospheres affecting cave microclimate, which has important implications for multiple disciplines interested in karst underground environments.