Atmospheric Radiative Forcing Research Articles

Impact of Summer North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature Tripole on Precipitation over Mid–high-latitude Eurasia

Abstract Eurasia is a sensitive and high-risk region for global climate changes, where climate anomalies significantly influence natural ecosystems, human health, and economic development. The North Atlantic tripole (NAT) sea surface temperature anomaly is crucial to interannual precipitation variations in Eurasia. Several studies have focused on the link between the NAT and climate anomalies in winter and spring. However, the mechanism by which the summer NAT impacts climate anomalies in Eurasia remains unclear. This study examines how the NAT impacts interannual variations of summer precipitation in mid-high-latitude Eurasia. Precipitation variations are associated with the atmospheric teleconnection triggered by the NAT. When the NAT is in its positive phase, the anomalous atmospheric diabatic heating over the North Atlantic excites an equivalent-barotropic Rossby wave train response that propagates eastward toward the Eurasia, resulting in atmospheric circulation anomalies over the region. The combined effects of atmospheric circulation, radiative forcing, and water vapor transport anomalies lead to decreased precipitation across Northern Europe and central Eurasia, with higher precipitation anomalies over the Northeast Asia. Finally, numerical experiments verify that the summer NAT excites atmospheric teleconnections that propagate downstream, affecting precipitation anomalies in mid-high-latitude Eurasia. This study provides a scientific basis for predicting Eurasian summer precipitation and strengthening disaster management strategies.

Addressing Observational Gaps in Aerosol Parameters using Machine Learning: Implications to Aerosol Radiative Forcing

The role of atmospheric aerosols has remained hugely uncertain due to lack of long-term systematic observations. This is particularly the case in the global emission hotspot the Indo-Gangetic Plain. In this paper, we apply a novel approach to fill gaps in aerosol observations by combining meteorological reanalysis, and satellite-observations with machine learning (ML). Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD), Single Scattering Albedo (SSA), and Asymmetry Parameter (AP) are critical parameters for understanding the atmospheric aerosol properties, radiative forcing and climate patterns. We considered AOD, SSA, and AP over an urban site, Kanpur, in the Indo-Gangetic Plain, which is a global hot-spot of high aerosol loading. We used ML technique to fill the observational gaps in AOD, SSA, and AP at 440 nm. Accurate ground-based daily observations of AOD, SSA, and AP from AERONET (Aerosol Robotic Network) over a period of ∼2 decades (2001-2022) are used in the analysis, which have ∼ 37%, ∼ 62%, and ∼ 58% data gap, respectively. To reduce observational gaps, an ML model was trained with reanalysis (meteorological parameters) and satellite (angstrom exponent and absorbing aerosol index) datasets by optimally tuning the hyperparameters. The model tested on unseen data showed that it could simulate the AOD (coefficient of determination, R2=0.51 and refined index of agreement, RIA= 0.66), SSA (R2=0.60 and RIA= 0.70), and AP (R2=0.64 and RIA= 0.71), successfully with moderate accuracies: root mean square error of 0.25, 0.018, and 0.018, respectively. This magnitude of error in AOD is comparable to the errors, 0.26 and 0.25, in satellite (MODIS-Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) derived and reanalysis (MERRA-2 -Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2) AODs, respectively for the study region. When MODIS AOD was included as a predictor in the ML model, it could reproduce AOD with much smaller errors of 0.14, reproducing 84% of total variability. Thus, based on available input data, we reduced observational gaps of daily AOD, SSA, and AP by ∼ 10% (∼ 2 years), ∼ 23% (∼ 5 years), and ∼ 21% (∼ 4 years), respectively, at the study region. Aerosol Radiative Forcing (ARF) at the top-of-atmosphere was estimated using AOD, SSA, and AP both with and without gap-filling. We found that data gaps can significantly impact the estimations of aerosol climate forcing. A considerable change in ARF, ∼ ± 3 Wm-2 indicating that the observational gaps can mislead our understanding of aerosols' impact on climate. This points toward the need for more comprehensive measurements with minimal observational gaps. Our study highlights the possibility of compensating observational gaps by an optimized ML model and that such innovative approach can potentially lead to better understanding of impact of aerosols on climate. Further, the present study could be of immense interest for the community as our validated approach can be applied for other pollutants and for other data-scarce regions in the South and Southeast Asia.

Assessment of Black Carbon, optical properties and aerosol radiative forcing at Pranmati basin Himalayan critical zone observatory

The study aimed to understand the optical properties of Black Carbon (BC) and radiative forcing over a data deficient Himalayan region focusing on critical zone observatory employing ground-based measurements by Aethalometer for BC and satellite retrieval techniques for optical properties during mid-May-June 2022 and January–May 2023.BC mass concentration ranged from 0.18 to 4.43 μgm−3, exhibit a mean of 1.47 ± 0.83 μgm−3 with higher summer concentration (1.51 ± 0.94 μgm−3) than winter (1.39 ± 0.61 μgm−3). The average Absorption Ångström Exponent observed to be significantly higher than unity (1.77 ± 0.31) over the studied high-altitude Himalayan region, suggesting the dominance of biomass-burning aerosol. Higher aethalometer derived compensation parameter (K) in winter suggesting locally originated BC while, lower K value in summer suggesting aged BC transported from Indo-Gangetic Plains.Optical properties calculated from “Optical Properties of Aerosol and Cloud” (OPAC) model are used in the “Santa Barbara DISORT Atmospheric Radiative Transfer” (SBDART) model to calculate the aerosol Direct Radiative Force (DRF). The entire studied period is characterized by the predominance of absorbing aerosols, particularly BC, increasing Aerosol Optical Depth, Asymmetric Parameters and decreasing Single Scattering Albedo, leading to a considerable increase in atmospheric radiative forcing (+0.9 Wm−2, top of atmosphere) and Heating Rate (0.36 KDay−1). The mean radiative forcing within atmosphere during summer was higher (+14.29 Wm−2) relative to the winter (+12.00 Wm−2), emphasizing the impact of absorbing aerosols on regional warming and potential glacier melting in the Himalayas at a faster rate. Urgent policy consideration for the reduction of absorbing aerosols is highlighted, recognizing the critical roles of Black Carbon in the changing behaviour of Critical Zone observatory. The study's data serve as a valuable resource to understanding and addressing uncertainties in climate models, aiding effective policy implementation for Black Carbon reduction.

The atmospheric aerosol spatial distribution and tropical intra-seasonal oscillations over the South Asian region

Intra-seasonal oscillations (ISO) are well known to modulate the weather phenomena which in turn are known to influence the atmospheric aerosol loading. This study investigates how aerosol loading is modulated in ISO spatio-temporal scales over the Indian region using long-term satellite aerosol optical depth data from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor, onboard Terra Satellite. It is shown that Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and Equatorial Rossby waves (ER) have the highest effect (15–20% of the mean) followed by Mixed-Rossby-gravity and Tropical depressions (MT), and Kelvin wave (KE) (5–15%). Further, a dipolar pattern in aerosol loading was observed, with poles over the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal. These variabilities were found to be mainly driven by anomalous winds associated with the ISOs. Similar to aerosol, dipolar signatures in the atmospheric aerosol radiative forcing (ARF) were also observed with clearer patterns. However, the forcing poles are not centered exactly where aerosol poles were observed, indicating the effect of differential properties of aerosols on the aerosol radiative forcing. Quantitatively, at the surface level, modulation in ARF is up to 3 Wm-2 (15%) for MJO and ER, and up to 2 Wm-2 (5%) for KE and MT; in the atmosphere and at the top of the atmosphere, modulation is up to 2 Wm-2 (15%) for MJO and ER, and up to 1 Wm-2 (5%) for KE and MT.

Sea salt reactivity over the northwest Atlantic: an in-depth look using the airborne ACTIVATE dataset

Abstract. Chloride (Cl−) displacement from sea salt particles is an extensively studied phenomenon with implications for human health, visibility, and the global radiation budget. Past works have investigated Cl− depletion over the northwest Atlantic (NWA); however, an updated, multi-seasonal, and geographically expanded account of sea salt reactivity over the region is needed. This study uses chemically resolved mass concentrations and meteorological data from the airborne Aerosol Cloud meTeorology Interactions oVer the western ATlantic Experiment (ACTIVATE) to quantify seasonal, spatial, and meteorological trends in Cl− depletion and to explore the importance of quantifying (1) non-sea salt sources of Na+ and (2) mass concentrations of lost Cl− (instead of relative amounts displaced). Lost Cl− mass concentrations are lowest in December–February and March, moderate around Bermuda in June, and highest in May (median losses of 0.04, 0.04, 0.66, and 1.76 µg m−3, respectively), with losses in May that are high enough to potentially accelerate tropospheric oxidation rates. Inorganic acidic species can account for all Cl− depletion in December–February, March, and June near Bermuda but none of the lost Cl− in May, suggesting that organic acids may be of importance for Cl− displacement in certain months. Contributions of dust to Na+ are not important seasonally but may cause relevant overestimates of lost Cl− in smoke and dust plumes. Higher percentages of Cl− depletion often do not correspond to larger mass concentrations of lost Cl−, so it is highly recommended to quantify the latter to place depletion reactions in context with their role in atmospheric oxidation and radiative forcing.

Weak transport of atmospheric water-insoluble particulate carbon from South Asia to the inner Tibetan Plateau in the monsoon season

Carbonaceous particles play a crucial role in atmospheric radiative forcing. However, our understanding of the behavior and sources of carbonaceous particles in remote regions remains limited. The Tibetan Plateau (TP) is a typical remote region that receives long-range transport of carbonaceous particles from severely polluted areas such as South Asia. Based on carbon isotopic compositions (Δ14C/δ13C) of water-insoluble particulate carbon (IPC) in total suspended particle (TSP), PM2.5, and precipitation samples collected during 2020–22 at the Nam Co Station, a remote site in the inner TP, the following results were achieved: First, fossil fuel contributions (ffossil) to IPC in TSP samples (28.60 ± 9.52 %) were higher than that of precipitation samples (23.11 ± 8.60 %), and it is estimated that the scavenging ratio of IPC from non-fossil fuel sources was around 2 times that from fossil fuel combustion during the monsoon season. The ffossil of IPC in both TSP and PM2.5 samples peaked during the monsoon season. Because heavy precipitation during the monsoon season scavenges large amounts of long-range transported carbonaceous particles, the contribution of local emissions from the TP largely outweighs that from South Asia during this season. The results of the IPC source apportionment based on Δ14C and δ13C in PM2.5 samples showed that the highest contribution of liquid fossil fuel combustion also occurred in the monsoon season, reflecting increased human activities (e.g., tourism) on the TP during this period. The results of this study highlight the longer lifetime of fossil fuel-sourced IPC in the atmosphere than that of non-fossil fuel sources in the inner TP and the importance of local emissions from the TP during the monsoon season. The findings provide new knowledge for model improvement and mitigation of carbonaceous particles.

Optical Variation and Molecular Transformation of Brown Carbon During Oxidation by NO3• in the Aqueous Phase.

The NO3•-driven nighttime aging of brown carbon (BrC) is known to greatly impact its atmospheric radiative forcing. However, the impact of oxidation by NO3• on the optical properties of BrC in atmospheric waters as well as the associated reaction mechanism remain unclear. In this work, we found that the optical variation of BrC proxies under environmentally relevant NO3• exposure depends strongly on their sources, with enhanced light absorptivity for biomass-burning BrC but bleaching for urban aerosols and humic substances. High-resolution mass spectrometry using FT-ICR MS shows that oxidation by NO3• leads to the formation of light-absorbing species (e.g., nitrated organics) for biomass-burning BrC while destroying electron donors (e.g., phenols) within charge transfer complexes in urban aerosols and humic substances, as evidenced by transient absorption spectroscopy and NaBH4 reduction experiments as well. Moreover, we found that the measured rate constants between NO3• with real BrCs (k = (1.8 ± 0.6) × 107 MC-1s-1, expressed as moles of carbon) are much higher than those of individual model organic carbon (OC), suggesting the reaction with OCs may be a previously ill-quantified important sink of NO3• in atmospheric waters. This work provides insights into the kinetics and molecular transformation of BrC during the oxidation by NO3•, facilitating further evaluation of BrC's climatic effects and atmospheric NO3• levels.

Assessing biases in atmospheric parameters for radiative effects estimation in tropical regions

Many studies highlight the importance of water vapor in tropical atmospheric radiative transfer calculations. However, limited research focuses on understanding the effects of biases in different atmospheric factors, such as pressure, temperature, water vapor, and ozone densities. These biases stem from various sources, including satellites, reanalysis data, and the standard TROPICAL atmosphere. This study explores how these biases influence estimates of two key things: atmospheric radiative forcing (ARF) and heating rate (HR) profiles over the tropical region. The study is undertaken at Gadanki, a rural background site in the tropics. It considers different situations - clear skies and those with aerosols - across different parts of the electromagnetic spectrum and throughout the seasons. Additionally, this study investigates how sensitive ARF and HR profiles are to biases in each of these atmospheric factors within specific spectral ranges. The study results show that the standard TROPICAL atmosphere often differs significantly from real-time measurements, leading to varied effects on radiation. Among the various factors, biases in water vapor density have the most substantial impact on ARF and HR, followed by biases in temperature. Moreover, longwave radiation is more sensitive to water vapor and temperature changes. This study emphasizes the importance of considering the exact state of the atmosphere, especially in tropical regions, when estimating ARF and HR. To improve estimates when real-time data isn't available, the study suggests combining data from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), and using reanalysis data for broader assessments. It's also important to be cautious when using the TROPICAL atmosphere to analyze the radiative effects of aerosols.

Committed Global Warming Risks Triggering Multiple Climate Tipping Points

AbstractMany scenarios for limiting global warming to 1.5°C assume planetary‐scale carbon dioxide removal sufficient to exceed anthropogenic emissions, resulting in radiative forcing falling and temperatures stabilizing. However, such removal technology may prove unfeasible for technical, environmental, political, or economic reasons, resulting in continuing greenhouse gas emissions from hard‐to‐mitigate sectors. This may lead to constant concentration scenarios, where net anthropogenic emissions remain non‐zero but small, and are roughly balanced by natural carbon sinks. Such a situation would keep atmospheric radiative forcing roughly constant. Fixed radiative forcing creates an equilibrium “committed” warming, captured in the concept of “equilibrium climate sensitivity.” This scenario is rarely analyzed as a potential extension to transient climate scenarios. Here, we aim to understand the planetary response to such fixed concentration commitments, with an emphasis on assessing the resulting likelihood of exceeding temperature thresholds that trigger climate tipping points. We explore transients followed by respective equilibrium committed warming initiated under low to high emission scenarios. We find that the likelihood of crossing the 1.5°C threshold and the 2.0°C threshold is 83% and 55%, respectively, if today's radiative forcing is maintained until achieving equilibrium global warming. Under the scenario that best matches current national commitments (RCP4.5), we estimate that in the transient stage, two tipping points will be crossed. If radiative forcing is then held fixed after the year 2100, a further six tipping point thresholds are crossed. Achieving a trajectory similar to RCP2.6 requires reaching net‐zero emissions rapidly, which would greatly reduce the likelihood of tipping events.

Optical Properties of Individual Tar Balls in the Free Troposphere.

Tar balls are brown carbonaceous particles that are highly viscous, spherical, amorphous, and light absorbing. They are believed to form in biomass burning smoke plumes during transport in the troposphere. Tar balls are also believed to have a significant impact on the Earth's radiative balance, but due to poorly characterized optical properties, this impact is highly uncertain. Here, we used two nighttime samples to investigate the chemical composition and optical properties of individual tar balls transported in the free troposphere to the Climate Observatory "Ottavio Vittori" on Mt. Cimone, Italy, using multimodal microspectroscopy. In our two samples, tar balls contributed 50% of carbonaceous particles by number. Of those tar balls, 16% were inhomogeneously mixed with other constituents. Using electron energy loss spectroscopy, we retrieved the complex refractive index (RI) for a wavelength range from 200 to 1200 nm for both inhomogeneously and homogeneously mixed tar balls. We found no significant difference in the average RI of inhomogeneously and homogeneously mixed tar balls (1.40-0.03i and 1.36-0.03i at 550 nm, respectively). Furthermore, we estimated the top of the atmosphere radiative forcing using the Santa Barbara DISORT Atmospheric Radiative Transfer model and found that a layer of only tar balls with an optical depth of 0.1 above vegetation would exert a positive radiative forcing ranging from 2.8 W m-2 (on a clear sky day) to 9.5 W m-2 (when clouds are below the aerosol layer). Understanding the optical properties of tar balls can help reduce uncertainties associated with the contribution of biomass-burning aerosol in current climate models.

Characterizing water-soluble brown carbon in fine particles in four typical cities in northwestern China during wintertime: integrating optical properties with chemical processes

Abstract. Brown carbon (BrC) aerosol could impact atmospheric radiative forcing and play a crucial role in atmospheric photochemistry. In this study, fine particulate matter (PM2.5) filter samples were collected synchronously in four major cities in northwestern China during the winter season (December 2019–January 2020): Lanzhou (LZ), Xining (XN), Yinchuan (YC), and Ürümqi (UR), which are represented as energy-producing and heavy manufacturing cities in China. The primary aim of the study is to explore the optical properties, sources, and chemical processes of water-soluble BrC (WS-BrC). The average mass absorption efficiency at 365 nm (MAE365) of WS-BrC at these four cities was 1.24 ± 0.19 m2 g−1 (XN), 1.19 ± 0.12 m2 g−1 (LZ), 1.07 ± 0.23 m2 g−1 (YC), and 0.78 ± 0.16 m2 g−1 (UR). The properties of WS-BrC were further investigated by an acid–base titration experiment. The results showed that the MAE365 values in all cities increased with higher pH values (2–11), while the fluorescence intensities of water extracts fluctuated with pH values, being stronger under both highly acidic and basic conditions. The sensitivity to pH variation was most pronounced in the WS-BrC samples from YC and LZ, indicating the important contribution of acid or base functional group compounds in these locations. Additionally, the study revealed significant photo-enhancement (LZ) or photo-bleaching (YC and UR) phenomena of WS-BrC in different cities. These results suggest that the sources and/or chemical processes of WS-BrC varied among the cities. The sources and chemical processes of WS-BrC were further explored by a combination of parallel factor analysis (PARAFAC) on excitation–emission matrix (EEM) spectra of WS-BrC and positive matrix factorization analysis (PMF) on high-resolution mass spectra of water-soluble organic aerosol (WSOA). Six PARAFAC components were identified, including three humic-like substances (HULIS; two less oxygenated (LO) HULIS and one highly oxygenated (HO) HULIS), two protein-like or phenol-like substances (PLS), and one undefined substance. Four PMF factors were identified, including a water-soluble primary OA (WS-POA), a less oxidized oxygenated OA associated with coal combustion-induced WSOA (LO-OOA), and two highly oxidized oxygenated OAs resulting from photochemical oxidation and aqueous-phase oxidation transformations (HO-OOA1 and HO-OOA2). WS-POA was determined to be the most significant source of light absorption, accounting for 30 %–60 % based on multiple linear regression models, and it showed a significant correlation with PLS and LO-HULIS components. The loss of light absorption of WS-POA was found to occur through its conversion to LO-OOA and HO-OOAs through photochemical or aqueous reactions, with HO-OOAs being significantly correlated with the HO-HULIS component. These processes can be clearly illustrated by integrating optical properties and chemical composition using a Van Krevelen diagram and an EEM plot.

AMOC decline and recovery in a warmer climate

This study presents novel insight into the mechanisms of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) reduction and its recovery under a warmer climate scenario. An one-thousand-year-long numerical simulation of a global coupled ocean–ice–atmosphere climate model, subjected to a stationary atmospheric radiative forcing, depict a coherent picture of the Arctic sea ice melting as a trigger for the initial AMOC reduction, along with decreases in the northward fluxes of salt and heat. Further atmospheric-driven ocean processes contribute to an erosion of the stable stratification of the fresher, yet colder waters in the surface layers of the North Atlantic, contributing to the recovery of a permanently altered AMOC.

Light absorption properties of black and brown carbon during the prescribed burning season at an urban background site in Brisbane, Australia

Light-absorbing carbonaceous aerosols primarily comprise black carbon (BC) and brown carbon (BrC), and they play a key role in atmospheric radiative forcing and global climate. Here, we present the light absorption, potential sources, and health risks of BC and BrC during the prescribed burning season at an urban background site in Brisbane based on the measurements with a seven-wavelength aethalometer. The enhancements in light absorption at 880 nm were potentially governed by the transport of prescribed burning emissions. Source apportionment results revealed that fossil-fuel (FF) combustion contributed more to the total equivalent BC (eBC) (67%) over the entire measurement period as compared to biomass burning (BB). The percentages of secondary BrC to BrC for BB- and FF-dominated periods were 60% and 21%, respectively, indicating the greater potential of BB emissions to form secondary BrC compared to FF emissions. The diurnal trend showed that the peaks of secondary BrC occurred at nighttime with high relative humidity, implying that the formation of secondary BrC was potentially associated with aqueous reactions. Potential source contribution function (PSCF) results suggested that air masses originating from southern and northern Brisbane were the potential pollution sources, where BB and traffic emissions were dominant. In addition, the health risks of eBC (based on equivalent numbers of passively smoked cigarettes) remarkably increased for periods with elevated eBC emissions, potentially originating from prescribed burns. These findings contribute to our understanding of the impact of BB on the light absorption properties of BC and BrC and could serve as a reference for government officials when performing prescribed burns with reduced environmental and health effects.

Assessment of submicron aerosol liquid water content and mass-based growth factors in South Asian outflow over the Indian Ocean

Aerosol-bound water, a ubiquitous and abundant component of atmospheric aerosols, has an impact on regional climate, visibility, human health, the hydrological cycle, and atmospheric chemistry. Yet, the intricate relationship between aerosol liquid water (ALWC) and chemical composition and relative humidity (RH) was not well understood. The present study explores ALWC derived from the ISORROPIA II model using real-time, high-resolution data of non-refractory submicron chemical species and meteorological parameters (temperature and RH) collected over the Indian Ocean as part of the ICARB (Integrated Campaign for Aerosols, Gases, and Radiation Budget)-2018 experiment. Results show that ALWC values over the South Eastern Arabian Sea (SEAS) were found to be higher by 4–6 times than those observed over the Equatorial Indian Ocean (EIO) due to a large decrease in aerosol loading from SEAS to EIO. ALWC peaked in the early morning hours (4:00–7:00), with greater values during the nighttime and lower values during the daytime across SEAS, which is comparable with RH variation. While the ratio of organics-to-SO42− mass fraction linearly decreased with increasing mass-based growth factors (MGFs) over EIO, such a scenario was not observed over SEAS. The latitudinal gradient of mass fraction of ALWC had shown a decrease towards EIO, consistent with organic fraction. The extinction coefficient of the dry mass of submicron particles is noticeably increased by 40 % by ALWC over SEAS and EIO. Moreover, ALWC could enhance the aerosol negative forcing by an average of 66 % (64 %) over SEAS (EIO) at the top of the atmosphere during the cruise period. These inferences imply that ALWC is the key factor in assessing the role of aerosols on atmospheric radiative forcing. Overall, the present study highlights the serious need to consider the ALWC in climate forcing simulations, particularly in moist tropical environments where their effect can be significant.

Metrics for the emissions of F-gas refrigerants

This paper examines the metrics used to account for the contribution to global warming from fluorinated gases (f-gases) mainly used as refrigerants for cooling. F-gases are key to climate mitigation discussion as they a) are critical to delivering the surging demand for air conditioners which is expected to triple by 2050, b) have strong Global Warming Potential (GWP) as high as 12,000 kgCO2-eq (for e.g., HFC-23) and c) are targeted by international policy agreements such as the Montreal Protocol and Kigali Amendment. F-gases exacerbate atmospheric warming when leaked from cooling equipment, or during other phases of their life cycle. Thus far, the way these gases impact global warming is mostly reported based on their CO2-equivalent emissions with a time horizon of 100 years. However, the problem is that f-gases have significantly different lifespans and the GWP100 does not account for these variations. The debate on metrics to account for warming of other short-lived climate pollutants (SLCP), such as methane is already ongoing. Here, we provide the first step to open such debate for short-lived f-gases. We address this, first, with a critical review of the available metrics for carbon foot-printing of f-gases and present a gap analysis between the existing carbon foot printing metrics and the need to better understand warming from f-gases. Second, we use an atmospheric model to illustrate how the incumbent metric (CO2-equivalent calculated using GWP100), misrepresent the warming of an exemplary f-gas refrigerant (HFC-134a). The model outputs novel profiles of atmospheric concentration, radiative forcing, and temperature, in three scenarios. Scenario A models the response to a positive step change in emissions of the HFC, while Scenario B is the inverse. Scenario C models a reduction of 85% by 2036 of emissions according to targets for high-emitting countries set in the Kigali Amendment. The modelling results evidence that the commonly used CO2-equivalent with its GWP100 does not represent the atmospheric responses, and particularly the warming of the exemplary short-lived HFC. Through the literature review, however, we identify many other metrics available that could be applied for f-gases, and particularly GWP* is recommended to examine in future works. In summary, the paper offers insights into which metrics can best help to identify the effects of f-gases in terms of reducing global warming in a rapid timeframe, and how CO2-equivalents should not be used as proxy for atmospheric warming in policy discussions.

Remote Influences of ENSO and IOD on the Interannual Variability of the West Antarctic Sea Ice

AbstractWest Antarctica exhibits a pronounced sea ice variability in interannual timescale, and 20%–30% of the total variance can be explained by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) during austral spring. The sea ice variation is primarily linked with anomalous atmospheric circulation in the Amundsen‐Bellingshausen Sea (ABS) that modulates poleward atmospheric temperature advection and radiative forcing. With a co‐varying relationship between ENSO and IOD, isolating their remote impacts on Antarctica has been limited in observations. An idealized experiment using the atmospheric model with a dry dynamical core suggests that the anticyclonic circulation anomaly in the ABS is primarily contributed by the ENSO in the Pacific Ocean, while the contribution of the IOD in the Indian Ocean is only one‐third large. This study implies that atmospheric teleconnection through the southern Pacific Ocean is crucial for understanding the West Antarctic sea ice concentration variability.

An idealized sensitivity study of fine particles' impact on the urban vertical temperature structure

Fine particles (PM2.5) scatter and absorb solar radiation affecting the atmospheric temperature structure, and the effects vary with different concentrations and compositions. This study investigated the effect of PM2.5 on the urban temperature structure of Nanjing through concentration- and species-sensitive experiments using a box model. The results show that the optical parameters, atmospheric heating rate, radiative forcing, and temperature are affected by the PM2.5 concentration, PM2.5 composition, and relative humidity. Under 80% relative humidity, the asymmetry and single scattering albedo (SSA) were 0.7 and 0.88, while under 20% relative humidity, they were 0.6 and 0.77, respectively. PM2.5 increased the atmospheric heating rate by 1–18 K/day; while the surface temperature decreased with the presence of PM2.5. Furthermore, the heterogeneous concentration and composition distributions of PM2.5 led to changes in urban heat island (UHI) intensity. The UHI intensity could be reduced by 1–3 K by PM2.5, and the reduction increased with the increase in PM2.5 concentration and absorbing compositions. The existence of absorbing compositions and high concentrations of PM2.5 may work together to mask the UHI effect and other problems of urban development from 2000s till the present.

By-production, emissions and abatement cost–climate benefit of HFC-23 in China's HCFC-22 plants

After the Kigali Amendment (KA) came into effect, HCFC-22 plants are obliged to limit HFC-23 emissions. Therefore, the study of cost-effective mitigation pathways for HFC-23 is important for the sustainable implementation of KA in China and other HCFC-22 producing countries. This study constructed an inventory of HFC-23 by-production, emissions, and abatement for HCFC-22 plants in China from 2006 to 2020, and predicted the costs and climate benefits of HFC-23 abatement in China's compliance with the KA between 2021 and 2060. Results showed that HFC-23 emissions from HCFC-22 plants in China contributed about 60% of the growth in global atmospheric mole fraction of HFC-23 observed by Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) from 2007 to 2020. Furthermore, China's cumulative HFC-23 abatement was about 109 kt (1613 Mt CO2-eq) from 2006 to 2019, accounting for 53% of total by-production, which allowed the global atmospheric mole fraction and radiative forcing of HFC-23 in 2020 to avoid an uplift of 9.2 × 10−9 and 1.7 mW m−2, respectively, contributing to climate change mitigation. Under the baseline of the Kigali Amendment, less emission (LE), and resource utilization (RU) scenarios, the cumulative HFC-23 abatement from 2021 to 2060 would be 683 ± 29 kt (10,107 ± 431 Mt CO2-eq), 694 ± 29 kt (10,277 ± 427 Mt CO2-eq), and 702 ± 29 kt (10,385 ± 426 Mt CO2-eq), respectively. The cumulative net abatement costs for the KA, LE, and RU scenarios would be (5.0 ± 0.2) billion, (2.9 ± 0.2) billion, and (−2.7 ± 0.2) billion CNY (2021 prices), respectively. In the future, applying resource utilization technology to reduce HFC-23 emissions can achieve both climate and economic benefits.

Absorbing Aerosol Optical Depth From OMI/TROPOMI Based on the GBRT Algorithm and AERONET Data in Asia

Quantifying the concentration of absorbing aerosol is essential for pollution tracking and calculation of atmospheric radiative forcing. To quickly obtain absorbing aerosol optical depth (AAOD) with high-resolution and high-accuracy, the gradient boosted regression trees (GBRT) method based on the joint data from Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro-Radiometer (MODIS), and AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) is used for TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI). Compared with the ground-based data, the correlation coefficient of the results is greater than 0.6 and the difference is generally within ±0.04. Compared with OMI data, the underestimation has been greatly improved. By further restricting the impact factors, three valid conclusions can be drawn: 1) the model with more spatial difference information achieves better results than the model with more temporal difference information; 2) the training dataset with a high cloud fraction (0.1–0.4) can partly improve the performance of GBRT results; and 3) when aerosol optical depth (AOD) is less than 0.3, the perform of retrieved AAODs is still good by comparing with ground-based measurements. The novel finding is expected to contribute to regional and even urban anthropogenic pollution research.

Improvement and Uncertainties of Global Simulation of Sulfate Concentration and Radiative Forcing in CESM2

AbstractSulfate is a major atmospheric pollutant and radiative forcing (RF) factor that influences air quality, cloud microphysics, and climate. Therefore, a better evaluation of sulfate concentrations and RF patterns is essential for policy‐making and the management of air pollution and climate change. This study comprehensively estimates the global distribution of sulfate concentrations and RFs and analyzes the sources of uncertainty in the Community Earth System Model version 2 and the Parallel Offline Radiative Transfer model. Compared with the observations, the incorporation of detailed in‐cloud aqueous‐phase chemistry and the enhanced wet deposition (WD) flux of sulfate significantly improved the simulations of sulfur species both near the ground and at high altitudes, which is beneficial for a more accurate estimation of the global RF of sulfate. The improved simulated RF of sulfate from 1850 to 2015 is −0.502 Wˑm−2. This study finds that WD is the key process governing both the horizontal and vertical distributions of sulfate concentrations. The overestimation of surface sulfate and the underestimation of high‐altitude sulfate made by the model are essential uncertainty factors of the sulfate RF estimation. This study emphasizes the importance of improving the simulation of global sulfate distribution as well as its RF, which may strongly pressure the near‐future warming potential when witnessing a rapid transition to a carbon neutral world that is phasing out fossil fuel. A more accurate assessment of sulfate levels and radiation effects will play a remarkable guiding role in the formulation of global emission reduction‐related policies in the future.